Second base offers an eclectic variety of options for drafters who don’t draw pick No. 1 or 2.
Even if he’s shorter than King Tommen, Jose Altuve towers over his peers on the position’s Iron Throne. While Jose Ramirez warrants a star designation, no second baseman besides the reigning AL MVP merits a first-round look.
Although not a stacked spot, second base presents an intriguing mix of exciting young talent and boring value plays. It also remains a spot where drafters will target speed. A dozen of the 52 players who stole at least 15 bags last year enter 2018 with second-base eligibility. Upstarts Ozzie Albies and Yoan Moncada are poised to join that increasingly elusive group with a full year of playing time.
Yet the position has not idly watched MLB’s home-run surge. Led by Brian Dozier and Jonathan Schoop, 15 2B-eligible bats touched them all at least 20 times. Fewer sluggers, however, are available for discounts.
Whether drafters want the sturdy veteran, bounce-back gamble, under-appreciated breakout, or burgeoning star, second base has something for everyone.
Note: The primer uses 15 games played as the eligibility baseline. Anthony Rizzo (10 games played), Matt Carpenter (13), Wilmer Flores (12), and Jedd Gyorko (five) also have 2B eligibility in standard Yahoo leagues.
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Elite: Jose Altuve, Jose Ramirez, Dee Gordon, Brian Dozier
Altuve is awesome. Some have made perfectly logical cases to take his elite five-category over Mike Trout at No. 1. While I’d still go Trout, I wouldn’t ridicule anyone for taking the diminutive star instead. In a 12-team snake draft, there’s an 83 percent chance you’ll have no opportunity to roster either anyway.
Only four players have stolen more bases in the last three seasons than Dee Gordon’s 90 from the prior two years. He served an 80-game suspension to start 2016. Not everyone will feel comfortable drafting a no-power speedster in the third round, but that’s where he belongs given the category’s declining supply. Those who prefer a sturdy power foundation can pivot to Brian Dozier around the same spot. He leads the position in home runs (76) over the last two years while ranking third in RBIs (192), slugging percentage (.522), and wOBA (.366) behind Altuve and Daniel Murphy.
High-End Starters: Daniel Murphy, Jonathan Schoop, Robinson Cano
Speaking of Murphy, keep an eye on his status this spring. After further legitimatizing his 2015 postseason breakout, the Nationals star may not be ready for Opening Day after undergoing surgery on his right knee in October. With Wilmer Difo or Howie Kendrick able to fill the void, it behooves the NL East champions to proceed with caution. Brandishing a higher wOBA (.396) than Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper, and Giancarlo Stanton in the last two seasons, Murphy is easily worth a top-50 pick if healthy. Yet that’s a steep price tag for a veteran who could start 2018 on the DL. A delayed debut should deflate his draft price and secure a smoother return, so don’t let him slip too far.
Robinson Cano logged 592 plate appearances over 150 games last season. Both represented his lowest tallies since 2006. Steady playing time led to 23 homers and 97 RBIs, but he delivered a lower wOBA (.334) than Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera, Eric Sogard, and Kolten Wong. His status as a top-10 second baseman is cemented by durability, but those who drafted Adrian Gonzalez last year know that the bottom can quickly fall out on a previously dependable 35-year-old.
Mid-Range Options: Whit Merrifield, Rougned Odor, D.J. LeMahieu, Chris Taylor, Ian Kinsler
Five players have batted at least .310 in each of the past two seasons: Altuve, Murphy, Joey Votto, Charlie Blackmon, and D.J. LeMahieu. Contact hitters rarely get the love they deserve, but LeMaheiu is a career .302 hitter who has scored 284 runs over the past three years and calls Coors Field home. Even with his stolen bases vanishing, he’s a solid investment for elite average and run production. His 130 ADP in NFBC drafts veers well below his 92 ECR.
Rougned Odor recorded the worst slugging percentage ever (.397) in a season with 30 or more home runs. Every qualified hitter who hasn’t been punched by him registered a higher batting average. That’s one way to frame his bizarre season. Another: Odor is 24 years old and already has two 30-homer, 14-steal campaigns under his belt. Run away in OBP or OPS formats, but those who draft reliable, high-average hitters early should target Odor near rounds nine and 10 of five-by-five roto leagues.
Ian Kinsler will be a major mid-draft steal if he hits closer to his career .273 average than last year’s professional nadir (.236). That’s a strong bet given his 86.0 contact, 14.0 contact, and 6.2 swinging-strike percentages. Father Time and Angel Stadium cap his speed and power ceilings, respectively, but he has swiped double-digit bags in all 12 MLB seasons with double-digit homers in seven consecutive years. Only four players (Trout, Dozier, Blackmon, and Josh Donaldson) have more scored runs than Kinsler’s 401 in the last four years, and he could reach triple digits again if batting ahead of Trout and Justin Upton. He’s a great middle-infield target who could fall because of his age (35) and last year’s fluky-low average.
Young Boom-or-Bust Candidates: Ozzie Albies, Ian Happ, Yoan Moncada, Javier Baez, Paul DeJong
Boom: Ozzie Albies – Albies may only qualify as a true sleeper in a casual league. Or maybe not. Any quilt about using that label on a popular breakout pick subsided when seeing his No. 164 ECR, way below his 132 ADP in NFBC drafts. The prospect adored for his glove surprisingly starred with the bat, hitting .286/.354/.456 with five triples, six home runs, and eight steals in 57 MLB games. A career .304 hitter in the minors, he quickly demonstrated those ball-to-play skills with an 80.0 contact percentage and 33.2 hard-hit rate paired with only one pop up. His glove will solidify playing time – possibly at shortstop if he swaps places with Dansby Swanson – and allow him to proffer a 10-20 campaign with a steady average. He won’t dominate in any category, but there’s more upside across the board. The shrewd drafter sifting Atlanta’s roster for a young star will grab him over Ronald Acuna.
Bust: Javier Baez – Among all qualified hitters, Javier Baez registered MLB’s second-worst contact (65.8 %) and swinging-strike (19.2 %) rates behind Joey Gallo. Only Corey Dickerson chased more pitches outside the strike zone. Despite striking out more (28.3 %) and trading line drives for ground balls, he hit .273 for the second straight year. Don’t get too comfortable with that mark as a baseline, and beware of a 19.7 HR/FB rate regressing to eliminate any power growth.
Late Draft: Eduardo Nunez, Scooter Gennett, Jonathan Villar, Cesar Hernandez, Jason Kipnis, Jose Peraza, Josh Harrison, Starlin Castro, Tim Beckham, Chris Owings
This tier feels too harsh a downgrade for Eduardo Nunez, but the mid-range group would have been too aggressive given playing-time concerns when Dustin Pedroia returns from knee surgery. Just don’t punish him too harshly. Nunez only needed 491 plate appearances to tally 12 homers and 24 steals last season, and the utilityman should continue to garner reps across the diamond. He’d force his way into a regular gig by coming anywhere close to last year’s .321/.353/.539 slash line with Boston.
Feeling bold? Jonathan Villar could swing some leagues by rediscovering 2016’s 19-homer, 62-steal magic. He also could find himself out of a starting role again, perhaps before Opening Day if the Brewers bring back Neil Walker, start Eric Sogard or Hernan Perez, or make a trade using their outfield and first-base surplus. It’s the ultimate risk-reward pick that especially makes sense near the end of a shallow mixed-league draft.
Cesar Hernandez has hit .294 with a 10.6 % walk rate in consecutive years, so he’ll fend off rookie Scott Kingery – more on him later – barring an injury or trade. He’s a sneaky candidate to score 90-plus runs in an upgraded Phillies lineup now featuring Carlos Santana and a full season of Rhys Hoskins. He’s a boringly productive middle infielder best deployed in OBP formats or deeper leagues.
Deep-League Viable: Asdrubal Cabrera, Yangervis Solarte, Neil Walker, Kolten Wong, Joe Panik, Brandon Drury, Ben Zobrist, Logan Forsythe, Jed Lowrie, Brandon Phillips, Brad Miller
Injuries limited Walker to 224 games played over the last two years, but he recorded an .813 OPS when healthy. He’s a decent, and more importantly cheap, power source in deeper leagues who could turn a nice profit in the right location.
The Yankees likely eliminated the most desirable landing spot by acquiring Brandon Drury from the Diamondbacks. Moving to Yankee Stadium salvages deep-league appeal for the 25-year-old, who accrued a career .377 wOBA at Chase Field and .278 wOBA on the road. Don’t let New York bias over-hype a career .271 hitter with 31 home runs over 289 games.
Yangervis Solarte nearly holds an identical career wOBA at home (.324) than on the road (.323), but his slugging percentage jumps from .401 to .434 away from Petco Park. Although currently a reserve, he’s backing up the brittle Devon Travis and already injured Troy Tulowitzki. A midseason Donaldson trade would also secure a regular role, so Solarte could crack 20 homers for the first time in his career.
Rookies: Gleyber Torres, Scott Kingery, Franklin Barreto
Drury will probably block Gleyber Torres from an Opening Day spot. He only played 23 games in Triple-A before tearing his ulnar collateral ligament in June, so it makes sense beyond service-time concerns to start the prized prospect in the minors. He should arrive in the Bronx sometime in 2018 but initially projects as a better real-life than fantasy option. While Torres is worth a late-round flier if given an opportunity, that news would send his draft stock soaring above a reasonable rate.
Scott Kingery excited fantasy observers by batting .304 with 26 homers and 29 steals between Double-A and Triple-A last year. The 5’10”, 180-pound prospect had hit just eight long balls in the previous two years, but the speed nevertheless cements him as a valuable future contributor. Set to turn 24 in April, he’s ready to make an immediate impact – at least from a fantasy perspective because of his legs – if given the nod. Drafters, however, should not expect much playing time in 2018 from a free swinger blocked by Hernandez, a far superior real-life starter who submitted a .373 on-base percentage and 3.3 fWAR last season. Save Kingery for dynasty formats, where he could help roto investors as soon as 2019.
Franklin Barreto is blocked by Jed Lowrie and Marcus Semien in Oakland’s middle infielder. The main prize in the 2014 Donaldson deal did not exactly force the club’s hand by batting .197/.250/.352 with 33 strikeouts in 76 big league plate appearances last year. He also notched a troubling 27.6 strikeout percentage in Triple-A, so he still has work to do in Triple-A until the A’s need him. His five-category upside warrants an end-of-draft flier in deep leagues, and dynasty managers should try to buy low following his tumultuous MLB debut.
2018 First Base Primer
2018 Catcher Primer
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
