It’s really important that you remember that the NFL season is very short, so it’s often difficult to find trends in such a small sample size. Think of it this way – if a defense plays against Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce, of course they’re going to be near the top of fantasy points allowed to the tight end position. On the flip side, you could be a team like the Dolphins who played against Jordan Akins and A.J. Derby in the first two weeks, so don’t be surprised to see them allow minimal points to the tight end position. I’m letting you know this because we’re just three games into the season, which is way too small of a sample size to draw any concrete conclusions.
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It’s why we’re here, to dissect each player and figure out what’s going on behind the scenes rather than just looking at overall numbers allowed to each position, because remember… every week is different. If you’re new here, here’s what you can expect out of this article each and every week: Numbers, facts, stats, opinions, and some shenanigans here and there. It’s my unbiased opinion about everyone on your roster. I’ve told everyone (including my leaguemates) that I’m an advice-giver first, player-second. The idea here is to give you as much information as possible and give you as much confidence as possible when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button each week. Let’s get this party started.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 47.5
Line: IND by 2.5
QBs
Deshaun Watson: It hasn’t been a great start to his sophomore season, as Watson has completed just under 60 percent of his passes, while throwing five touchdowns and three interceptions against the Patriots, Titans, and Giants defenses. His offensive line remains a huge problem, though it was also an issue last year. He gets another plus-matchup in Week 4 against the Colts, though their defense has played better than most expected the last two weeks. While Carson Wentz did throw for just 255 yards and one touchdown, you should know that it was raining throughout the entire game. That won’t be an issue in the dome this week. The Colts have racked up 10 sacks through three games, so Watson may be running for his life again, but the Colts don’t have the talent at cornerback to hang with the Texans wide receivers while Watson scrambles. This could be a breakout performance to jumpstart Watson’s 2018 season, making him a rock-solid QB1 and one of my favorite tournament plays.
Andrew Luck: If you missed the end of the Week 3 game, the Colts pulled Luck out of the game and inserted Jacoby Brissett to throw the hail mary pass. While it’s possible I’m overthinking this, it let us know that he doesn’t have the arm strength that he once did. Through three weeks, there’s just one quarterback who has fewer intended air yards than Luck, and that’s Marcus Mariota, who has nerve damage. The Texans pass-rush should force that to continue for Luck, though the Texans front-seven has underwhelmed through three games, totaling just seven sacks (ranks 17th in the NFL). Will Luck finally get his starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo back for this game? He’s been out for the first three weeks of the season and his replacement Le’Raven Clark hasn’t been good. The Texans secondary can be exposed if you move the ball quickly the way the Giants did last week (Eli Manning averaged just 2.34 seconds to throw, which was the lowest time of Week 3), so this game should suit Luck’s skillset right now, making him a low-end QB1 for this week.
RBs
Lamar Miller: After hearing all the positive reports about him losing weight and getting in better shape this offseason, Miller has struggled to produce behind the horrid Texans offensive line. He’s still yet to score a touchdown on 44 carries, though he did tally a receiving touchdown last week. He also lost a fumble that his coach won’t be too happy about. The Colts have arguably played much better defense than anyone expected this year, but they’ve still allowed 106.0 rushing yards per game (despite holding Adrian Peterson to 20 yards in Week 2). They’re led by rookie linebacker Darius Leonard, who has been phenomenal against the run, though he’s been somewhat of a liability in coverage. It just seems like the Texans should attack through the air in this game, but Miller should still see 12-16 touches with an opportunity to get his first rushing touchdown of the season. I don’t think you’ll get the high yardage in this game, but he’s got a 50/50 shot to score, making him a middling RB2.
Jordan Wilkins, Marlon Mack, and Nyheim Hines: This backfield is a mess and likely one to avoid this week, as the Texans are allowing just 3.81 yards per carry on the young season despite playing against the Patriots, Titans, and Giants. The snap count in Week 3 with Mack out of the lineup was Hines 43, Wilkins 17, so they’re clearly using Hines as the Darren Sproles of the offense. Even if Mack returns, they’ll likely limit his role the way they did in Week 2, making him a big-play or bust running back, which can be said about plenty of guys on the waiver wire. Hines is the only one I’d consider in this matchup, though he’s not someone you really want to play in standard leagues. In PPR formats, he’s moving up the ranks as someone who has RB4 value, especially knowing how much Luck has been checking down.
WRs
DeAndre Hopkins: If you didn’t see last week’s game, Hopkins did score a touchdown, though it was called back due to a holding penalty. It was always going to be a tough matchup for him against Janoris Jenkins, while Fuller got backup B.W. Webb in coverage, but don’t worry Hopkins owners… This is a blowup-type game for Hopkins against the Colts, who are starting Kenny Moore and Nate Hairston at cornerback in 2WR sets, though Pierre Desir comes on the field in 3WR sets and will see Hopkins at times, too. The competition over the last two weeks for them hasn’t been great, as Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson, Nelson Agholor, and Jordan Matthews aren’t world-beaters. If Watson wants to get back on track, I’m sure he knows that he’s got to get the ball to Hopkins on a consistent basis. I’m betting on that happening this week, making Hopkins a high-end WR1.
Will Fuller: I mentioned last week that Fuller was a must-play against the Giants and even moved him up to a mid-tier WR2 in the rankings when the Giants announced that Eli Apple was out for the game. His splits with Deshaun Watson are real, as he’s now averaged 78.4 yards and 1.6 touchdowns in the five games they’ve played together. While it’s a very small sample size, it’s clear those two have a connection. The touchdowns will absolutely regress, though inside the dome against the Colts cornerback trio isn’t one you should run from. They’ve now allowed at least 63 yards to four different pass-catchers, and that’s despite allowing just 790 passing yards through three games. It means the top guys are getting theirs, which is obviously what Fuller and Hopkins are. The Colts don’t have a cornerback who runs a sub-4.5-second 40-yard dash, so Fuller should probably be in lineups as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 once again.
T.Y. Hilton: It’s been a different type of season for Hilton, who has been playing in the slot the majority of his career. He’s also been targeted deep rather often throughout his time in the league. Well, in 2018, he’s playing on the perimeter a majority of the time and his average depth of target is 8.2 yards, which is closer to the bottom of the league than the top of it. Going back to the last time he played with Luck in 2016, that number was up at 13.3 yards. He’s been able to make it work for the most part, but it’s unlikely he has the 180-yard, two-touchdown ceiling that he once did. He’s averaging over 10 targets, which is a good thing against the Texans, who lost Kevin Johnson early in the year. They’ll have Johnathan Joseph and Shareece Wright in coverage on him this week, which is a dream scenario for someone like Hilton, as Joseph is a 34-year-old who is well past his prime, and Wright was signed off the street not long ago. He’s a different player in a different offense, but Hilton should be a high-end WR2 play this week.
Ryan Grant: After seeing nine targets in the opener, Grant has totaled six targets in the following two games. He’s made the most of nearly every opportunity, as he’s hauled in 13-of-15 targets for 124 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be needed in this game as someone who Luck can get the ball out to quickly, as they’ll need to use the pass-game to move the ball down the field. The Giants laid out the blueprint on how to do it last week, as both Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard combined for 15 catches, 189 yards, and a touchdown. If you’re looking for a cheap target in DFS who should see six-plus targets this week, Grant is a great option. He should be considered a semi-high-floor WR4/5 option this week with upside for more.
TEs
Ryan Griffin: He remains the leader of this tight end timeshare, though none of them have scored this season, and none of them have totaled more than 80 yards in the three games combined. It’s clear that the offense runs through the wide receivers, but knowing that Bruce Ellington may be out, it could clear out some room for targets against the Colts who are coming off a game in which they allowed Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert to combine for 12/146/1 last week. Darius Leonard has been great against the run, but he’s allowed 25-of-27 targets to be completed in his coverage. It also seems like strong safety Clayton Geathers is playing through an injury, so there could be opportunity here, but it’s too hard to trust any of the Texans tight ends with the short history we have.
Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron: It was worrisome that Doyle was ruled out multiple days before the game last week, but we also saw that Ebron cannot play that role he does in the offense. He saw 11 targets in the game but finished with just 33 scoreless yards. My belief is that Ebron and Doyle benefit from each other’s existence, so it’d be best if Doyle returns. The Texans have been a mixed bag against tight ends, but it likely comes down to the competition. After allowing Rob Gronkowski tag them for 123 yards and a touchdown, they played Jonnu Smith in his first career start, and then watched Evan Engram go down in the first-half with a knee injury, though they did allow his backup Rhett Ellison 39 yards and a touchdown. You want to see Doyle practice in-full on Thursday or Friday to full trust him, but the matchup is too good to pass up if he’s active. Ebron is on the high-end TE2 radar even if Doyle plays, but would be bumped up to TE1 territory if Doyle sits again. Update: Doyle has been ruled out for Week 4, so get him out of lineups. Ebron should be considered a low-end TE1 who comes with a high floor.
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers
Total: 44.5
Line: GB by 10.0
QBs
Josh Allen: After he tagged the Vikings for three total touchdowns, Allen will travel just down the road to play the Packers. Something tells me that Aaron Rodgers won’t put the Packers defense in the position that Kirk Cousins put the Vikings defense. Bills quarterbacks have still been sacked a massive 14 times through three games, which is where problems will come from. The Packers have allowed six passing touchdowns over the last two weeks, but they did play against Cousins and Alex Smith in those games, two veterans who have much more experience than Allen. The Packers did lose Muhammad Wilkerson to a gruesome ankle injury, but the combination of Clay Matthews, Mike Daniels, and Kenny Clark should be able to get into the backfield. Allen has shown rushing ability to provide a decent floor (97 yards, two touchdowns through 2.5 games), so he shouldn’t be off your fantasy radar in 2QB leagues. The Packers secondary is weak, but the Bills lack pass-catchers to take Allen to the next level. He’s a low-end QB2 for this game.
Aaron Rodgers: It was bad enough to watch Rodgers limp his way around the field, but it’ll be even worse if his starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga is forced to miss time with a back injury. He left the game late in the second quarter, and his replacement Jason Spriggs allowed pressures on three of the first 11 plays of the second-half. Rodgers has overcome offensive line struggles/injuries in the past, but with his limited mobility, this will be a problem. Stay tuned to Bulaga’s status as the week goes on. The Bills pass-rush cruised right past the Vikings subpar offensive line last week and will do the same to the Packers if Bulaga and potentially right guard Justin McCray (who is also hurt) are forced to miss the game. Rodgers is good enough to salvage his value, but he’s not going to be the elite QB1 he’s become known to be. I’d still play him as a QB1 against the Bills who have allowed seven passing scores through three games, but I’d avoid in DFS this week.
RBs
LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory: It seemed like McCoy was always a longshot to play last week, though another week could allow him to make it back onto the field. The Packers have allowed over 300 rushing yards to running backs over the first three games, so it’s not a bad matchup for them, though they hadn’t allowed a rushing touchdown until last week when they allowed Adrian Peterson two of them. Washington was in control of that game throughout, which allowed them to run the ball confidently. The issue with trusting a Bills running back here is that oddsmakers have them as 10-point underdogs who are projected to score just 17 points. Despite Marcus Murphy getting the majority of snaps behind McCoy in Weeks 1 and 2, Ivory emerged as the clear handcuff to McCoy while totaling 23 touches against the Vikings. If McCoy plays, he should be played as a risky RB3 who may not play his regular workhorse role. If McCoy sits, Ivory becomes a RB4/flex option who at least provides you with a 12-15-touch floor.
Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, and Ty Montgomery: The running game hasn’t done Rodgers any favors, as they’ve combined for just 231 scoreless yards on 53 carries through the first three games. While it adds up to a respectable 4.36 yards per carry, the ringleader (Williams) has averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and may now be without the entire right side of the offensive line. The Packers need some sort of surge from the run-game and it’s got to come this week. The Bills may have “shut down” the Vikings last week, but Latavius Murray carried the ball just twice. The Bills defense has still allowed 21 touchdowns to running backs over their last 12 games, including six of them in the first two weeks of 2018. If the Packers are serious about getting their run-game going, they couldn’t have a better opponent in Week 4. The question becomes – which running back do you want to play? I’m leaning Jones because while Williams has been a great pass-protector, they need to move the chains and Jones gives them the best chance to do that. Williams will still be involved, but he’s likely the 1B for this game, making him a risky RB3/4-type option while Jones is an RB3 with massive upside. Montgomery is what he is at this point, and that’s just a role player who’ll score a touchdown here and there, but he’s not playable on a weekly basis.
WRs
Kelvin Benjamin: The positive is that he leads the team in targets (15). The negative is that he’s totaled just 58 yards on those targets and now has fewer receiving yards than Chris Ivory. The Bills didn’t have to throw the ball very much last week, but that didn’t stop Benjamin from dropping another pass. He was upset on the sideline during this game, though we never heard what it was about. Against the Packers, we should see more pass attempts, and their cornerbacks have combined to allow 367 yards and six touchdowns to the combination of Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Laquon Treadwell/Paul Richardson/Jamison Crowder the last two weeks. Tramon Williams and Jaire Alexander are competent enough, but there’s been lapses in the communication with them and new safety Kentrell Brice. Benjamin is always going to be a touchdown-or-bust option, and knowing the recent struggles of the Packers secondary, he’s on the low-end WR4 radar this week.
Zay Jones: With Allen under center, Jones has seen just four targets the last two weeks. He’s the one who plays the majority of slot snaps for them, which actually gives him the best matchup against the Packers, as Josh Jackson has been relegated to that role. He allowed a long touchdown to Paul Richardson last week, which was on a ball that was severely underthrown, but Jackson had no idea where the ball was. I’m not playing Jones in season-long, but he has a decent matchup if he starts seeing more targets.
Davante Adams: Despite Rodgers playing on one leg for the last 10 quarters, Adams sits tight as a top-10 wide receiver after three weeks. Some will say that his touchdowns will regress, it’s hard for me to see it with Randall Cobb looking like the same player he was last year and Jimmy Graham not living up to the hype just yet. Adams will see Tre’Davious White in coverage the majority of the day, which is the toughest matchup on the field. White is a sophomore who played extremely well in his rookie season, allowing just a 48 percent catch-rate in his coverage. Through 19 games, he’s allowed just a 64.6 QB Rating when targeted, which is one of the best marks in the NFL. The Packers should scheme to get Adams in the slot a bit more this week (White doesn’t travel there), but it’s not a great week to expect a monster performance out of him. You’re still playing him as a high-end WR2 in season-long leagues, but it’s best to limit exposure in DFS.
Randall Cobb: Outside of the broken play against the Bears where Cobb went for a long touchdown, he’s totaled just 125 scoreless yards on 26 targets through three games. He dropped two passes last week and he’s also fumbled the ball twice, so it’s safe to say Cobb isn’t playing very well. The matchup with Taron Johnson is a good one, as he’s coming off a game in which he allowed Adam Thielen to rack up 14 catches for 105 yards. While it wasn’t all in Johnson’s coverage, a lot of it was. Cobb plays almost exclusively in the slot, so the fourth-round rookie cornerback will likely be tested by the veteran. You don’t want to jump and say Cobb is a must-start because of how poorly he’s played, but he should be able to sneak into WR3/4 territory this week. Update: Cobb is listed as questionable, so keep an eye on the inactive list on Sunday morning.
Geronimo Allison: He just continues to rack up points. Prior to the season, I used James Jones as a comparison for him, and as of now, Allison is on pace for 69 receptions, 1,115 yards, and 11 touchdowns. During the magical 2012 season for Jones, he totaled 64 receptions, 784 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Knowing that the Bills are likely to stick Tre’Davious White on Adams, Allison should see a lot of either Phillip Gaines (missed last week with an injury) or Ryan Lewis in coverage. Lewis got the start last week and it was the first time he’d seen an NFL field. Gaines is someone who the Chiefs (a very cornerback-needy team) let walk in free agency. The concern about the Packers offensive line is real, but Allison has now performed well enough to trust as a WR4 with serious touchdown upside, and his cornerback matchup isn’t a bad one.
TEs
Charles Clay: While watching the games with my brother-in-law last week, he saw a Bills tight end catch a touchdown and realized it wasn’t Clay. He asked me who it was and my reply was that he must not have read The Primer last week. Jason Croom actually led the tight ends in targets coming into that game, so he was mentioned here. Clay is still the leader in snaps and he was targeted three times in Week 3, but he’s far from trustworthy with 47 scoreless yards to his name through three games. The Packers most definitely miss Morgan Burnett as someone who could come down and take care of tight ends, as they’ve now allowed 207 yards to the combination of Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, and Kyle Rudolph the last two weeks. Clay should be able to be on the streaming radar with how weak the position is, but you don’t need me to tell you that he comes with plenty of risk.
Jimmy Graham: He hasn’t been able to find the end zone yet, but you have to be encouraged by the usage as he’s now seen 15 targets the last two weeks. Those targets have netted 11 receptions for 140 yards, so he’s producing with them. Knowing that he’s not a blocker, you shouldn’t be worried about him staying in to help protect Rodgers. With Adams having a tough matchup this week, Graham may score his first touchdown in this game. Prior to allowing Kyle Rudolph five catches for 48 yards and a touchdown last week, the Bills had played Nick Boyle and Virgil Green, so the sample size of talent has been rather weak. Graham is an elite TE1 play this week and one you should toss in a few DFS lineups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Total: 48.5
Line: CHI by 2.5
QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Yes, I’m approaching this week as if Fitzpatrick is starting. After the start he had, it’d be odd to go to Jameis Winston, especially when the bye is next week. If you watched the game Monday night, the Bucs offensive line couldn’t hold off the Steelers pass-rush, which was non-existent against the Chiefs. The Bears don’t have the cornerback talent to match the wide receivers of the Bucs, so while there are likely to be mistakes due to pressure, there are also likely to be some big plays, similar to what happened against the Steelers. He’s also on the road in Chicago where the Bears gave the mobile Russell Wilson fits until late in the game. You should approach this game the same way you did last week, with cautious optimism, though there’s even more cause for concern because Winston will be standing on the sideline waiting for his opportunity. Consider Fitzpatrick a mid-tier QB2 who will be a roller-coaster ride against this defense.
Mitch Trubisky: It’s been a rough start to the season for Trubisky, who has completed 69.2 percent of his passes, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He’s lacking confidence in his throws and because of that, his touch is off on passes over 20 yards, completing just 4-of-15 throws in that territory (ranks third-worst in the NFL, oddly just in front of Brady, Roethlisberger. You shouldn’t write him off just yet, but there’s legitimate cause for concern if he doesn’t snap out of it soon. The Bucs might be just what the doctor ordered. They’ve allowed an average of 375.3 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game, though playing against Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger will do that. The Bucs secondary did get Brent Grimes back last week, but he didn’t make a difference against Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. It seems like Anthony Miller may miss some time with a separated shoulder, which takes away a weapon, but Trubisky should be able to post top-20 numbers in this plus-matchup. You can’t confidently stream him with the lack of production thus far, but if there’s a week where you want to try, this would be it.
RBs
Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers: Drafting Ronald Jones in the second-round and then having him inactive for this? I get it, he didn’t look great in the preseason, but if they were watching the same thing I was, he had no prayer running behind the second-string offensive line. Heck, Barber doesn’t even have a shot running behind the first-team offensive line. He’s totaled just 124 yards on 43 carries to this point (2.9 yards per carry) and Rodgers has added absolutely no value out of the backfield. They’re going to have to go to Jones before long, as they need some juice injected into the offense, and while he’ll lose yards at times, he also presents a home run threat at any area of the field. The Bears defense is going to swallow this offensive line, as they’ve still yet to allow more than 57 rushing yards to an entire team of running backs. Barber is just a body in your lineup who’ll likely get you 3-6 points with a shot at a goal-line plunge, though it’s not likely. Rodgers has just six receptions through three weeks, so feel free to ignore him.
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: Until Trubisky starts completing passes down the field, Howard is going to have trouble finding space. He’s averaging just 3.4 yards per carry thus far, though it was promising to see Nagy give him a season-high 24 carries last week. The Bucs front-seven got a makeover this offseason and it’s shown in the results, as they’ve held the combination of Alvin Kamara, Jay Ajayi, and James Conner to just 113 yards on 30 carries (3.77 yards per carry). Conner was the only running back who saw more than eight carries against them, so gamescript played into these games as well. They did allow four rushing touchdowns, so it wasn’t all rosy. The Bucs may also get back defensive tackle Vita Vea this week, which would likely give them a slight boost with him alongside Gerald McCoy. Howard is a home favorite, which is always a positive correlation play, though he’s more of a high-end RB2 in this game.
WRs
Mike Evans: We talked about Evans last week and how he’s been really good against zone coverage over the last two years, which was why he was such a great play last week. The Bears run a lot of man coverage, though they don’t have that shutdown cornerback who’ll follow Evans around. He’ll see a mixture of Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara, who have been really hit-or-miss through three games. Fuller has allowed two touchdowns, though he’s had tight coverage on both plays (just didn’t know where the ball was, which is a problem). Amukamara can consistently be beat after the catch, so it’d be wise for the Bucs to give Evans some screens against him, while tossing some deep balls against Fuller. Knowing they’re lacking any sort of run-game, Evans should continue to be heavily targeted. He’s a must-play WR1 almost regardless of matchup right now, but this one isn’t too bad. In his matchup against the Bears last year, he totaled 7/93/1 on nine targets.
DeSean Jackson: You were warned about Jackson last week against the Steelers heavy zone defense, where Jackson is someone who feasts on man-coverage. He’ll get his wish this week against the Bears, as he’ll primarily see Kyle Fuller in coverage. Fuller is the one who allowed the touchdown to Tyler Lockett on Sunday night football in Week 2, though it was a dime by Russell Wilson that just floated over Fuller’s head, which was turned away from the ball. Fuller is more of a physical cornerback while Jackson is finesse, so the edge should go to Jackson, though the question becomes whether or not Fitzpatrick has enough time to throw the ball downfield with the Bears pass-rush. Jackson is worth a play as a WR3/4 this week who comes with some bust potential, but he should get loose at least a time or two.
Chris Godwin: It’s really frustrating to see both Jackson and Adam Humphries get more snaps than him, as Godwin deserves to be on the field as much as Evans. The snap counts from Week 3 were: Evans 58, Humphries 53, Jackson 42, Godwin 37. Yes, he’s scored in three straight games, but he needs to get more snaps if we want him to be an every-week starter. Godwin plays everywhere on the field, so there’s not one cornerback he’ll see more than the others. Knowing their inability to run the ball, you can’t just write-off Godwin, but his lack of snaps will lead to inconsistent production. Consider him a mediocre WR4 who needs to score to prevent a bust.
Allen Robinson: It seems like his teammate Anthony Miller may miss this game, which could lead to even more slot snaps for Robinson, and that’s a mighty good thing. He’s run 32.2 percent of his routes from the slot, and it’s led to eight catches for 94 yards on just eight targets. His 2.47 yards per route run from the slot ranks fourth to only Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, and John Brown. On top of that, the Bucs have the rookie cornerback duo of Carlton Davis/M.J. Stewart covering the slot, where we’ve witnessed these lines from slot-heavy wide receivers: Michael Thomas 16/180/1, Nelson Agholor 8/88/1, and JuJu Smith-Schuster 9/116/0. Even on the perimeter, Robinson has a big size advantage over Brent Grimes who is 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds. This is the game where Robinson could post WR1 numbers, though Trubisky’s struggles keep him in the WR2 territory.
Taylor Gabriel: Not many realize the volume that Gabriel has gotten over the last few weeks, which have included 17 targets. They only netted 64 yards, but that has more to do with where the targets were at on the field. The Bucs don’t have a cornerback with the speed of Gabriel, though just like Robinson, he needs Trubisky to deliver the ball accurately. Put Gabriel on your radar, especially with Anthony Miller likely to miss some time. He’s just a big-play WR5 in redraft leagues, but he’s someone who can deliver his cost on just one play.
TEs
O.J. Howard: Once Cameron Brate caught the touchdown last week, I knew he’d be a topic of discussion to bring Howard back down to earth. He did play 31 snaps last week, which was quite a bit more than the 14 snaps he played in Week 2, but Howard was still running as the top guy with 48 snaps. Howard’s prowess on the field is like a giant wide receiver and he’s been a favorite of Fitzpatrick, totaling 14 targets through three games. The Bears defense have allowed two tight end touchdowns the last two weeks, though one came to Will Dissly in garbage time (had nothing before then) and the other was to Ricky Seals-Jones where he was left uncovered. The point is that their stats aren’t indicative of what their talent level is, as they held Jimmy Graham to just two catches for eight yards in the opener. The Bucs have better mismatches at wide receiver, so the tight ends could take a backseat in this game, though it’s hard to bump Howard out of TE1 territory with how few sure things there are at tight end.
Trey Burton: There are a lot of people who ask me on a weekly basis if they should drop Burton. I don’t respond because it would take too long to explain just how bad the tight end position is and how hard it is to find a player who gets consistent targets. To know that Burton sits at TE16 with how bad Trubisky has been should tell you something. He’s seeing solid targets and even more will open up with the injury to Anthony Miller, so no, don’t drop him. The Bucs have been demolished by tight ends this year, allowing a league-high 25 receptions and 329 yards to them, though just one touchdown. Keep in mind that two of the tight ends who played them were Ben Watson and Vance McDonald. The other was Zach Ertz, who plays in the same system as Burton. Even with Nick Foles under center, he totaled 11 catches for 94 yards against them. Burton will remain in the TE1 conversation and this week is no different.
