The Primer: Week 15 Edition (Fantasy Football)

Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 46.0
Line: CIN by 3.0

QBs
Derek Carr: You should be shocked by the fact that Carr has thrown for 607 yards and five touchdowns the last two weeks, but I’m really not. It’s just who he is. There will be times where he makes you believe he’s a franchise quarterback, while making you want to bench him the very next week. Do you remember the four prior weeks where he threw for 200.0 yards per game and had three touchdowns in the four games combined? The Bengals have not faced more than 29 pass attempts over the last five games and have held three of their last four opponents to one or less passing touchdowns, including Philip Rivers last week. They’re far from an elite defense and they’re missing multiple players, but this matchup is more about Carr than it is the Bengals defense. While the ‘good’ Carr has shown up the last two weeks, he’s not someone you want to trust with your fragile playoff life if you can help it. With that being said, if you’re looking for a quarterback who’s less than 40 percent owned who has a chance to post top-15 numbers against the Bengals (as 10-of-13 quarterbacks have), he’s not the absolute worst option.

Jeff Driskel: In two starts, Driskel has posted 43-of-64 passing for 406 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, but his rushing totals are what’s been most disappointing. After rushing for 44 yards and a touchdown in relief of Andy Dalton the previous two games, he’s totaled just 15 yards on the ground over the last two weeks. The Raiders have allowed 138 yards and a touchdown on the ground to quarterbacks over the last three weeks, so that’s a positive. Similar to the Bengals defense, the Raiders have been one who’s allowed a high-floor to opposing quarterbacks, as 9-of-13 quarterbacks have finished as top-15 options against them, and of the four who didn’t, three of them still threw multiple touchdown passes. In fact, there’s been just two games all season where the Raiders haven’t allowed multiple passing touchdowns, and one of them was to Lamar Jackson. Driskel isn’t likely to throw the ball a lot this week, but when he does, he should be somewhat efficient, as the Raiders offer zero pass-rush. With no rushing totals and very few options to throw to, he’s nothing more than a high-end QB3, even in this great matchup.

RBs
Doug Martin and Jalen Richard: After hearing about Martin’s knee injury that had the Raiders sign C.J. Anderson, I’ll admit that it was worrisome, but after seeing him tally 16 carries against the Steelers, you should feel okay with him moving forward. The Bengals are a matchup to target for running backs, as they’ve allowed almost 1,100 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns over their last eight games. On the entire 13-game season, they’ve yet to hold a team of running backs to less than 22.2 PPR points. They were without Vontaze Burfict last week, as he suffered a concussion the prior week, though his play hasn’t been great this year, anyway. The Bengals haven’t won a game since Week 8, so it’s unlikely we see them jump out to a big lead and eliminate Martin from the game, as he’s rarely involved in the passing-game. He’s totaled at least 14 touches in four of the last five games and has scored in three straight games, so feel free to play Martin as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 this week. The Bengals have allowed a league-high 20 total touchdowns to running backs. After seeing 55 targets over the Raiders first nine games, Richard has totaled just 13 of them over the last four games. He has received a lot more carries (26 over that time), but the targets are what’ll carry his fantasy performances. The Bengals do allow the second-most PPR points per target to running backs, so Richard can remain on the RB4 radar despite his decreased role in the passing-game.

Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard: It seemed like the Bengals had been moving towards more of a timeshare between Mixon and Bernard, but the 31-5 touch ratio against the Chargers last week bodes very well for Mixon. The Raiders did hold the Steelers running backs to just 32 yards on 16 carries last week, though they were able to score a touchdown and rack-up seven catches for 64 yards. On the year, they’ve now allowed 122.9 rushing yards per game to running backs, which ranks as the second-most behind only the Cardinals. There’s been just three games all season where their opponent has averaged less than 4.24 yards per carry, so Mixon’s volume should amount to some very solid numbers. Mixon has also seen 15 targets over the last three games while Driskel’s been under center for most of that. He should be played as a rock-solid RB1 this week. As for Bernard, the Raiders do face an average of 24.8 carries per game, so there’s a possibility he sees five carries or so, but the Raiders have allowed just 47 receptions to running backs all season, which is the fewest in the NFL, so he’s nothing more than a desperation RB4/5-type option.

WRs
Jordy Nelson: We’ve now seen Nelson get 18 targets over the last two weeks, and they’ve amounted to 16/145/0, so we must take notice. He’ll see a mixture of William Jackson and KeiVarae Russell, a cornerback who’s played just 125 snaps over his three years in the league. He’s playing because Dre Kirkpatrick‘s foot injury seems like a multi-week issue. Nelson should be able to take advantage of that matchup, but Jackson will give him fits. He’ll see each of them about 35 percent of the time, so it’s not like you can clearly make a case for him to succeed in this game, which is what I’d want if trusting him in a playoff matchup. In four of the last five games, the Bengals have held the opposing No. 1 tight end, No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 receiver to less than 35 PPR points combined. It’s a weird stat, I know, but it’s not great for a guy who’s topped 48 yards once since Week 3. He’s just a low-upside WR5.

Seth Roberts: He’s now seen at least six targets in three of the last four games, so he should at least be talked about. The Bengals have had issues with slot receivers this season, as they’ve allowed two of them to eclipse 100 yards, and five of them to eclipse 50 yards. On his slot targets (where Roberts is 90 percent of the time) Darqueze Dennard has allowed 29-of-37 passing for 308 yards. He’s yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage and Roberts has just two touchdowns all season, so it’s unlikely his upside is worth his risk. Roberts is just a WR6 who happens to have a plus-matchup.

Tyler Boyd: He’s coming off a worrisome six-target game last week, as volume is what’s been keeping him alive in the WR3 conversation the last six weeks. Contrary to what most believe, the Raiders haven’t been the most giving defense to opposing wide receivers, as they’ve allowed just three top-15 wide receivers against them all season. A large part of that is due to the lack of receptions they’ve allowed to them, as their 132 receptions (10.2 per game) is the lowest in the NFL. They have, however, allowed plenty of touchdowns, with 19 of those 132 receptions going for six points. They’ve allowed a touchdown every 12.1 targets to wide receivers, which is the worst mark in the NFL. This game isn’t likely to net a lot of pass attempts for Driskel, so we may see Boyd capped around 6-8 targets in a mediocre matchup. One interesting thing to note is that of the 13 biggest fantasy performances they’ve allowed to wide receivers, eight of them were slot-heavy receivers. Boyd can be played as a high-end WR3 this week.

John Ross: The six touchdowns on 43 targets sure do look nice but remove them and you’re looking at a brutal season for Ross where he’s caught just 41.9 percent of his targets and has reached 40 yards just once. I’m convinced that the coaching staff just doesn’t know how to use him or Mixon properly. The matchup against the Raiders is interesting because they allow just 10.2 receptions per game to them (fewest in the NFL), but have allowed 14.0 yards per reception (4th-highest) and a touchdown every 12.1 targets (worst in NFL) to wide receivers. You don’t want to predict touchdowns coming from Jeff Driskel, so it’s wise to follow the targets. Ross hasn’t seen many (7) with Driskel over the last two weeks, so he’s nothing more than a big-play hopeful WR5 this week. It’s worth noting the Raiders have allowed 13 pass-plays of 40-plus yards, most in the NFL, but we also need to remember that the Bengals have no clue on how to get Ross the ball.

TEs
Jared Cook: The Bengals have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this year, though it hasn’t been a matchup to attack for massive upside. Travis Kelce was the only tight end who topped 68 yards against them, while there’s been just three tight ends who’ve totaled at least 20 yards and a touchdown. We’ve seen six different tight ends post at least 50 yards, so that’s the floor Cook owners should be hoping for. He’s now totaled 18 targets over the last two games with seven catches and 100-plus yards in each game. It’s tough to say this after we’ve already witnessed nine years of below-average play with spurts of potential, Cook has looked good more often than he hasn’t this year. While volume plays a large part in that, we’ll take targets where we can get them. The Bengals do allow a 76.7 percent catch-rate to tight ends, which ranks as the third-highest mark in football, so Cook should present a top-12 floor this week with top-six potential.

C.J. Uzomah: Ever since Tyler Eifert went out for the year, Uzomah has totaled 45 targets, which ranks as the 10th-most among tight ends. Unfortunately, he ranks 15th in yardage over the span, so he hasn’t been what you’d call efficient. The Raiders present a unique opportunity for him, though, as they’ve struggled against any tight end who’s seen more than three targets. From an efficiency standpoint, they’ve been the worst defense in the league against the position, as they’ve faced the 20th-most targets, but have allowed the second-most yardage to tight ends. The 2.58 PPR points per target ranks as the most in the league while the next closest team is at 2.25 points per target. If Uzomah finishes with five-plus targets in this game, he’s likely going to be a TE1 in Week 15. He should be considered a decent streamer this week and one who should at least give you 3-5 catches and 35-50 yards. Oh, and the Raiders allow a tight end touchdown every 9.3 targets.

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Total: 47.0
Line: IND by 3.0

QBs
Dak Prescott: The impressive performances with Cooper on the team continued last week, as Prescott totaled 21.7 or more fantasy points for the third time in the last five weeks. His schedule has been favorable which needs to be weighed in, but the Colts aren’t a matchup that you would run from, either. The list of quarterbacks they’ve played this year is laughable, as they haven’t played a single top-12 quarterback (based on fantasy points per game) all season and have played just two top-18 quarterbacks (Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady). Brady was able to finish as the QB3 with 341 yards and three touchdowns, while Watson finished as the QB6 with 375 yards and two touchdowns in the first matchup, and then the QB17 in their second matchup with 267 yards and one touchdown when he was off his game and missing a third wide receiver. Despite playing lackluster competition all year, the Colts have allowed the 18th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks while allowing them to complete 71.8 percent of their passes (2nd-highest mark). The Colts have stymied opposing run-games, as they’ve allowed 100 rushing yards to opposing teams of running backs in just two matchups all season. The Colts pass-rush has started to come alive with 14 sacks in their last four games, and Prescott has taken more of those than any other quarterback in the NFL. He also may be without his Pro Bowl guard Zack Martin, who injured his knee during the win over the Eagles, though they’re hoping he plays through it. Prescott will be playing indoors, which is an added bonus this time of year. Consider him a high-end QB2 whose matchup may not be as bad as it initially looks on paper.

Andrew Luck: It was a pleasant bounce-back against the Texans last week, as Luck needed to wash out the bad taste of the game with the Jaguars the week before. With the run-game struggling as much as it has, he’s now thrown 130 pass attempts over the last three games, which he’ll likely need against the Cowboys, who’ve been a tough matchup for quarterbacks. Week 14 was the first time all season they’ve allowed more than two passing touchdowns in a game and there’s been just three occasions where a quarterback has thrown for 300 yards against them. It’s not a coincidence that there’s been just three quarterbacks who’ve thrown the ball more than 38 times against them. The Cowboys usually want to control the time of possession with their run-game, but the Colts may not allow that. Knowing how well the Cowboys have defended the pass and the fact that they’ve allowed more than 24 points just once this season doesn’t bode well for Luck’s upside in this game, but his QB1 floor should be intact.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott: He’s overcome some poor offensive line play at times this year, but if Pro Bowl guard Zack Martin were to miss this game after suffering a knee injury against the Eagles, it would be a downgrade to the whole offense. It’s already a tougher matchup than most realize, as the Colts have allowed just two teams of running backs to rush for 100 yards against them. They’ve still yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this year, though Joe Mixon and Sony Michel came close. But have no fear, Elliott owners because the Colts allow tons of work through the air to running backs, something Elliott has become quite accustomed to over the last six weeks. In that time, he’s seen 45 targets which have netted 40 receptions for 327 yards and two touchdowns. There are just 18 running backs who have more yardage on the entire season, and he’s very close to David Johnson‘s totals for the year at 43 receptions for 340 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts have struggled with pass-catching backs this year, as they’ve allowed 93 receptions (2nd-most) and 717 yards (5th-most) to running backs. Ultimately, they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points through the air to running backs, so Elliott has many avenues to success, though it may not be a 200-yard explosion that some have come to expect. He’s always starting for your redraft fantasy team, though you don’t need to be overweight in DFS this week.

Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: Mack has now totaled 39 yards or less in four of his last five games and will now play against an ascending Cowboys defense. There’s been just three top-12 running backs against them all season and each one of them racked-up at least 23 touches. Mack has 23 touches over the last two weeks combined. The Cowboys only see an average of 18.6 carries and 67.6 rushing yards per game, which both rank as the fourth-fewest in football. They’ve also allowed just two rushing touchdowns over their last nine games. With Mack seeing no more than two targets in a game since way back in Week 8, he’s no longer a must-start. Of the last five Cowboys opponents, none of them have carried the ball more than 18 times, which is a problem for a running back who’s not involved in the passing-game and plays just 38-60 percent of the snaps. He should be considered a mediocre RB3 option for this game who likely gets the nudge in a tough start/sit decision because of the offense he plays in. As for Hines, he’s now seen 14 targets over the last two weeks, putting him firmly on the PPR streaming radar. The Cowboys have consistently allowed 25-65 yards through the air to opposing running backs but have also faced the most running back targets (118) on the season. Hines is a low-appealing RB4 in standard formats but should be able to post top-36 numbers in PPR formats.

WRs
Amari Cooper: The list of wide receivers with more points than Amari Cooper since he joined the Cowboys is the same list of NFL players who’ll retire tomorrow and let me take their place on the field. None. Keep in mind that’s now a six-game sample size, so his role is growing in reliability. The Colts have allowed five different receivers to accumulate 92-plus yards against them, which included a 10-catch, 169-yard game to DeAndre Hopkins, another route-running technician. There’s been just six wide receivers all year who’ve seen at least eight targets against them, so seeing their overall numbers against wide receivers be good isn’t all that shocking. They’ve allowed a 68 percent catch-rate and a touchdown every 16.1 targets to wide receivers but have faced a league-low 209 targets. That’s an average of just 16.1 targets per game, hence the reason they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. On a per-target basis, they’ve allowed 1.85 PPR points per target, which ranks as the 13th-most. While the matchup may not be pristine, it’s also not as bad as it looks on the surface. Cooper should continue to be played as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 who has elite WR1 upside.

Michael Gallup: His role has continually grown throughout the year, but he’s now totaled less than 35 yards in four of the last five games while seeing an average of 6.0 targets per game. That’s not great. Now going against the Colts, who haven’t allowed multiple top-30 receivers in a game since Week 6. With Cooper getting all the production, it’s going to be tough to rely on Gallup outside of a touchdown, though he hasn’t had one of those over the last six games, which not coincidentally is the time Cooper’s been on the team. He’ll see Pierre Desir the most, a fifth-year cornerback who’s played surprisingly well through 14 weeks of the season. He’s allowed just a 58.5 percent catch-rate in his coverage, and though the catches he allows go for 13.8 yards, he’s allowed just two touchdowns on 53 targets. Gallup isn’t anything you should be targeting as more than a touchdown-hopeful WR4, though his target share is getting to a range where it’s hard to ignore him.

Cole Beasley: He’s totaled just nine targets over the last three weeks, while Cooper, Gallup, and Elliott have become the focal points of the pass-attack. Beasley has averaged just 22.7 yards per game with Cooper on the team and hasn’t scored a single touchdown outside of that Week 6 game against the Jaguars. The Colts have Kenny Moore covering the slot, and even though he’s allowed a robust 72.4 percent catch-rate, he’s allowed just 8.1 yards per reception and a touchdown every 38 targets in coverage. Beasley isn’t someone to play in the fantasy playoffs.

T.Y. Hilton: He’s the only wide receiver with a consistent role on the team, as he’s now seen at least nine targets in each of his last four games. Despite playing through a shoulder injury, he posted 9/199/0 against the Texans, which now makes it four straight games he’s caught at least seven balls and recorded at least 77 yards. The Cowboys have been a brutal matchup for wide receivers this year, as Alshon Jeffery was just the sixth wide receiver this year to score more than 13 PPR points against them. The other receivers who were able to accomplish that were Golden Tate, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Tyler Lockett, and Keke Coutee. There’s a good mix of wide receivers in there, but almost all of them possess good speed. As a whole, the Cowboys secondary has allowed the third-fewest points to opposing receivers and have allowed just one 100-yard receiver since Week 5. The matchup is a bit more difficult for Hilton this week than it was last week, but it helps that he’s at home, as he’s played better there over the course of his career. He’s not someone you need to target in DFS this week, but he should be played as a middling WR2 in season-long leagues. Update: Hilton did not practice all week, which is extremely concerning after he played through an ankle injury last week. He’s listed as questionable, so you need to pay attention to the inactives on Sunday morning. 

TEs
Blake Jarwin: We talked about Jarwin in The Primer last week, saying that he may not have been playing the most snaps, but he was running the most routes. While we didn’t expect much against the Eagles, he delivered a solid fantasy performance posting seven catches for 56 yards in a tough matchup. The Colts have been a rather giving team to tight ends, as they’ve allowed a 79.4 percent catch-rate (2nd-highest), 9.3 yards per target (4th-highest), and 81 receptions (2nd-most) to them. Through 13 games, they’ve allowed 10 tight ends to finish as top-16 options, including eight of them to finish top-10. With Cooper attracting so much attention, it’s possible we start seeing others involved, especially when the matchup calls for it. Jarwin comes with risk as he’s someone who has just one game over two targets, but when looking at recent trends and matchups, he deserves consideration as a streamer.

Eric Ebron: Despite playing essentially 30 percent of the snaps with Jack Doyle on the field and seeing three or less targets on three separate occasions, Ebron currently sits as the No. 4 tight end in football and remains an every-week start no matter what the matchup is. The Cowboys have been really hit-or-miss against tight ends this year, though they’ve allowed some big games to some big-name tight ends. Zach Ertz posted 14/145/2, Evan Engram 7/67/1, Jordan Reed 6/75/0, and even Vernon Davis 2/73/1. Those are all highly-athletic tight ends, which Ebron clearly is as well. Keep in mind that Ebron plays the Ertz role in Frank Reich’s offense, so his performance is notable. While Ertz was held to 5/38/0 in their second meeting, that’s a divisional game where the teams have become familiar with each other. Ebron needs to be in lineups as a high-end TE1 who can benefit from Hilton’s tough matchup.

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

Total: 38.5
Line: BUF by 2.5

QBs
Matthew Stafford: Raise your hand if you though Stafford and the Lions offense would be projected for just 18.0 points in Week 15 when the season began. Nobody did. We also couldn’t predict Golden Tate being traded. Here’s Stafford’s splits with/without him:

 
Now going against a Bills team that’s allowed just one top-15 performance since Week 2? That was to Andrew Luck who threw for just 156 yards, though his four touchdowns were enough to get him up the leaderboard back in Week 7. The Bills have held opposing quarterbacks to less than 180 passing yards in each of the last five games, and eight of the last nine games. Stafford is not a recommended play this week and it seems like it’ll be tough for him to even finish inside the top-20 quarterbacks this week.

Josh Allen: He now has 321 rushing yards over the last three games, which has broken the NFL record for quarterback rushing yards over a three-game stretch that was formerly held by Michael Vick (294 yards). Despite throwing just three touchdowns to four interceptions over the last three weeks, he’s been the No. 2 fantasy quarterback in that time behind only Patrick Mahomes. It’ll be interesting to see how his act goes against the Lions who’ve yet to allow a quarterback to rush for more than 18 yards. The 62 rushing yards they’ve allowed to quarterbacks ranks as the fewest in the NFL, while there’s just one other team who’s allowed less than 137 yards (Broncos – 91). Keep in mind they played against Mitch Trubisky, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott this year. The Lions secondary has been vulnerable through the season, though they’ve stepped-up over the last two weeks, holding Jared Goff to just 207 yards and one touchdown, and then Josh Rosen to 240 yards and no touchdowns. While you’ll likely laugh about Rosen, remember that Allen is a much worse passer than him with even fewer weapons to throw to. Some will want to start Allen based on the last three weeks, but this isn’t a matchup that suits his strengths (the Jets were) which ultimately makes him a middling QB2 who presents an embarrassingly low floor if he can’t get anything going on the ground.

RBs
LeGarrette Blount, Zach Zenner, and Theo Riddick: Let’s be clear about this… Blount is who we thought he was. Meanwhile, Zenner may have actually stole the 1-2 down role from him in Week 14 when he tallied 54 yards and a touchdown on his 12 carries while Blount mustered-up just 33 yards on 12 carries against the worst run-defense in the league while losing a fumble as well. It’s unlikely the Lions try to get Kerryon Johnson back on the field, as it just doesn’t make sense at all, so we have to approach this game as if Zenner, Blount, and Riddick are the backfield options. The Bills have held 8-of-13 opponents to 3.9 or less yards per carry and have held 11-of-13 to 4.6 or less yards per carry. Why am I sharing that? Well, because it’s hard for a running back in a timeshare to succeed in a matchup where the defense has been very efficient. They’ve now held six of their last eight opponents to less than 80 yards on the ground, though that doesn’t tell the whole story because they’ve allowed nine rushing touchdowns over their last seven games. This is essentially a touchdown-or-bust matchup for Zenner and Blount, and we cannot pretend we know which running back will see more opportunities. My guess would be that Zenner is the most likely to succeed, but that’s purely a guess, so he should be considered a low-end RB3, at best. As for Riddick, he’s locked into his role, though the Bills have allowed just 5.5 yards per target to running backs. He’s likely to mix-in and see 4-6 carries while being targeted 4-6 times, so Riddick is kind of like a Jalen Richard-type running back, which typically results in RB4-type numbers in standard and low-end RB3 numbers in PPR formats.

Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy: With LeSean McCoy surely out for this game, we must turn to Ivory to see if he’ll be available, as he suffered a shoulder injury in the third quarter and didn’t return to the game. The fortunate news for fantasy players is that you shouldn’t worry too much, as the Lions have been dominant against the run since acquiring defensive tackle Damon Harrison. Over the last five games, they’ve allowed just 327 yards on 87 carries (3.76 yards per carry) with three touchdowns. During that time, they’ve played Tarik Cohen/Jordan Howard twice, Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson, so the competition wasn’t light. With Ivory banged-up and behind a horrid offensive line, he’s nothing more than a high-end RB4 even if he does play this game. Murphy hasn’t been targeted in the pass-game as of late, as he’s seen just one target over the last four weeks. He only becomes a fantasy option if Ivory misses the game, and even then, he wouldn’t be too enticing against a stout Lions run-defense. I’ll come back and update these notes on Saturday morning. Update: Ivory is going to play this week, though as mentioned before, he’s just a high-end RB4 who needs a touchdown to be more than that. 

WRs
Kenny Golladay: Despite Marvin Jones and Golden Tate not on the team right now, Golladay has somehow totaled just 20 targets over the last three weeks, including just four targets in a tough matchup with the Cardinals. We thought we could at least rely on eight-plus targets from Golladay, but it appears even that is no lock to happen. It’s an issue against the Bills, as they’ve allowed just 1.67 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which is tied for the seventh-lowest mark in the league. They’ve allowed just 121.2 yards per game to wide receivers, which ranks as the lowest in the league while no other team allows less than 128.8 yards per game. Golladay will surely see a lot of Tre’Davious White, who has allowed just a 53.7 percent catch-rate in his coverage with just 5.76 yards per target and two touchdowns on 41 targets. There’s still yet to be a receiver who’s totaled at least 80 yards and a touchdown against them this year, though Robby Anderson‘s 4/76/1 performance last week came close. That was the fourth-best PPR performance they’ve allowed this year, and Adam Thielen has been the only one to hit the 20-point barrier against them. It’s clear that his upside is limited in this game, so combining that with his low target volume from last week and you’re all of a sudden uncertain on what to do with him. I’d still bank on him getting closer to that eight-target mark, so he should be considered a middling WR3 who lacks WR1 upside.

Bruce Ellington: It really hurt the pass-catchers when Stafford threw the ball a season-low 23 times last week, and Ellington was not immune to it. In fact, he’s likely the one who’ll be most affected when Stafford has limited attempts, as he lacks big-play potential and touchdown-upside. As mentioned in the Golladay notes, the Bills have allowed just 121.2 yards per game to wide receivers, which ranks as the lowest in the league while no other team allows less than 128.8 yards per game. The 11.1 receptions per game doesn’t leave a whole lot of optimism for Ellington, even when Golladay has a tough matchup. Ellington had his time as a fill-in for PPR leaguers, but this is not one of those matchups to target. Update: Ellington has been ruled out for this game. 

Zay Jones: It’s really tough to trust Jones after he ‘bust’ against the Jets, a matchup slot receivers continually dominate (including Jones the first time they played). The good news is that the Lions are another plus-matchup for slot receivers, as Nevin Lawson is the one who’s been tasked with that role since Week 7 and has allowed 20-of-32 passing for 237 yards and three touchdowns while covering the slot this year. If Allen has issues totaling yardage on the ground or the Lions dedicate more resources to slow him down, Jones would stand to benefit. Of the 11 top-24 performances the Lions have allowed to wide receivers, slot-heavy receivers make up seven of them. While many are stuck on last week’s performance, we have to look forward and have a short memory. The Lions have allowed the second-most points per target to wide receivers and their weakest spot in the secondary is the slot. Jones is a playable WR4 who comes with risk, but who doesn’t in this territory.

TEs
Levine Toilolo: It appears that Toilolo is now the Lions top receiving tight end, as he ran 15 routes last week while Luke Willson and Michael Roberts combined for just seven routes. It’s a situation to avoid against the Bills, as they’ve allowed just one top-10 performance this year and it was way back in Week 3 to Kyle Rudolph. They’ve held Rob Gronkowski and Eric Ebron outside the top-18 tight ends in their games, which kind of tells you all you need to know. Toilolo isn’t worth owning.

Charles Clay: Not only has Clay failed to record more than 40 yards or a touchdown in any game this year, but he’s now splitting pass routes with Logan Thomas. Even Thomas himself hasn’t topped 40 yards or scored a touchdown, though he’s had just one game with more than two targets. The Lions aren’t a great matchup for tight ends anyway, as they’ve allowed just one tight end to catch more than four passes and have allowed just five touchdowns all season. Don’t play a Bills tight end unless you enjoy pain and suffering.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Total: 45.0
Line: CHI by 5.5

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: The Packers got a win without Mike McCarthy last week, but truth be told, not much felt different with the team. Rodgers still has very little trust in his receivers outside of Adams and isn’t taking many chances. He’s now set a record with 368 passes in a row without an interception. The Bears will surely put that number to the test in Week 15, as they lead the league with 25 interceptions (no other team has more than 19). They’re the only team in the NFL who’s allowed fewer passing touchdowns than interceptions (20 to 25) which is kind of ridiculous when you think about it. Rodgers’ performance against them back in Week 1 remains the best fantasy performance any quarterback has had against the Bears, but remember Geronimo Allison was available for that game. That was really the only game where the Bears had a healthy Khalil Mack but allowed a usable fantasy performance to a quarterback. Rodgers hasn’t played on the road in Chicago since back in 2016 where he threw for just 252 yards and no touchdowns in a Week 15 showdown, which was the same Vic Fangio defense, though it’s upgraded this time around. The combination of Bears dominance with Rodgers’ mediocrity fantasy-wise makes for an interesting dynamic. He’s not going to have a Jared Goff-type game, that I can promise you. What I can’t promise is that he’ll have a performance like his first one when he finished as the No. 5 quarterback that week. Rodgers has been sacked 14 times the last four weeks and was without his left tackle, left guard, and right guard last week against the Falcons. With nothing to play for, it’s hard to say they’ll be hard-pressed to return, especially at less than 100 percent against a Bears fierce pass-rush. Rodgers should be considered a low-end QB1 for this game who’s a lot more familiar with the defense/weather than Goff was.

Mitch Trubisky: He reverted to the early season Trubisky who was missing throws left and right. It seemed as if he was trying to put mustard on his passes to show everyone his shoulder was okay, but it led to him sailing balls and trying to do too much. The Packers have allowed multiple touchdowns in three of their last four games with the only exception being Josh Rosen, who doesn’t really throw touchdowns in general. The Packers are without defensive tackle Mike Daniels, but their pass-rush is still one of the best in football, as they lead the NFL with an 8.9 percent sack-rate. They’ll need to work on a contain against Trubisky because they do play a lot of man-coverage, so it’s possible they don’t bring as much pressure with the threat of his legs. Quarterbacks haven’t rushed for a lot of yardage against the Packers but coming off what might be his worst game in 2018, Trubisky may be a tad gun-shy and take off running quicker than usual. It could have been simply rust against the Rams last week, but I tend to think it also had to do with solid defense, as the Rams defensive backs were glued to his receivers. There have been just three quarterbacks all season who’ve failed to score at least 15 fantasy points against the Packers and finish outside of the top-18, so Trubisky should be able to deliver a high-end QB2 floor, though his upside is tied to his passing.

RBs
Aaron Jones: He didn’t even start last week. What. Is. Happening. He did wind up with 17 carries to just four for Jamaal Williams, so you have to wonder if it was some sort of punishment for Jones. Maybe he was late to a team meeting or something? Whatever the case, he’s the guy they’ll have on the field against the Bears, who’ve been one of the stingiest run defenses this year, especially while at home. There’s been three games where they’ve allowed 100 rushing yards and every one of them were on the road. While playing in Chicago, no team of running backs has totaled more than 98 yards or 3.92 yards per carry against them. It’s been a tough matchup all season, as there’s been just eight top-24 performances against them this year, with just four of them eeking into the top-12. We saw Saquon Barkley rack-up 125 yards on the ground against them two weeks ago, so they aren’t unbeatable, but it does require a commitment to the run-game, something the Packers have lacked, as they’ve totaled just 21.6 carries per game, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Jones is talented, but behind a beat-up offensive line that was missing three starters last week, against the Bears defense? He’s more of a middling to low-end RB2 this week than the RB1 he’s been over the last month.

Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard: Dare I say Howard actually looked good against the Rams last week? It was a matchup that suited his style more than Cohen, but it was as good as he’s looked in some time. The Packers have allowed 4.62 yards per carry over their last nine games, while also finding the end zone nine times. They’ve allowed at least 110 yards rushing in six of their last eight games, and a big part of that reason is that each of their opponents since Week 4 have totaled at least 21 carries against them. We saw Howard total 82 yards on 15 carries in the first meeting between the two teams, and it appears that this matchup would suit him better than Cohen, as the Packers have allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points to running backs through the air. Cohen offers more game-breaking potential, so that’s got to be baked into their projections, but Howard can be started as a high-end RB3 who should total 13-18 carries while Cohen is more of the risk/reward RB3 who may not get as many touches but offers more big-play potential.

WRs
Davante Adams: His dominant season continued, as he’s now posted 92 receptions for 1,196 yards and 12 touchdowns through 13 games. His 283.6 PPR points would have been the No. 4 fantasy receiver last year and he’s still got three games to go. The Bears have allowed five 100-yard performances to wide receivers this year and there’s nine other receivers who’ve totaled in-between 60-90 yards, so it’s far from a matchup to avoid. The Bears defense has been breaking on the ball when the wide receiver hits a pivot in his route, but that’ll be difficult against the Adams/Rodgers connection, as he’ll often throw the ball before Adams even makes his break in the route. He’ll match-up against both Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara, the duo that’s intercepted 10 passes, but also allowed seven touchdowns. They’ve been great as of late, there’s no way around that, but Adams has as well. Adams totaled 5/88/1 on eight targets earlier in the season and totaled 5/90/1 against them the last time they played in 2017. You’re playing Adams as a WR1 every week and this one is no different. While you don’t need to attack him in cash games, he makes for an interesting tournament option who’ll have lower ownership than he rightfully should.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: It seems that I was wrong on Valdes-Scantling getting back involved in the offense the way he was through the middle of the season. He’s seen just 14 targets over the last four games that have netted just 49 scoreless yards. He’s nothing more than a WR6 who just happens to have Rodgers as his quarterback. If he has a big game, it’d be an outlier at this point, as he was fourth among wide receivers in snaps last week behind Adams, Cobb, and Equanimeous St. Brown.

Randall Cobb: He scored his first touchdown since Week 1 against the Falcons last week, so we’re taking baby steps at this point with Cobb. He’s now seen 11 targets in the two games since returning, turning them into 8/68/1, so it’s not massive, but it’s a step in the right direction. He will catch a break in this game as the Bears will be without Bryce Callahan, their nickel cornerback who’d been playing at a Pro Bowl level this season. Veteran Shea McManis will take his place, who’s only covered 57 targets in his nine-year career. On those targets, he’s allowed 43-of-57 passing for 576 yards and six touchdowns. That’s not very good. By comparison, Callahan has allowed 38-of-51 passing for 308 yards and one touchdown this year. Cobb can be considered a high-end WR4 who has the best matchup on the field.

Allen Robinson: It hasn’t been what most would call a great season for Robinson but given the struggles of Trubisky and Daniels at times, we should expect inconsistency to some extent. A week after Trubisky took unnecessary risks, it’s unlikely he’ll do it again this week, and that’s not great news for Robinson who’ll likely have Jaire Alexander glued to his hip. He allowed big production to Julio Jones last week, but for the most part, his coverage was tight, and Jones made some ridiculous plays. The touchdown he allowed to Jones last week was just his second one all season on 69 targets in coverage, so don’t come away thinking that the rookie has been beaten like a drum. Alexander wasn’t on the field much in Week 1 when these two teams played but has since been promoted to the No. 1 cornerback role. Robinson may not see as many targets as he has the last two weeks (17 of them), adding a bit more risk to his projection. Robinson should be considered a middling WR3 who’s talented enough to perform in this matchup, but he also has the toughest matchup of the Bears wide receivers. Update: Robinson had to miss some practice time with his hip injury that bothered him earlier in the year. He returned to a full practice on Friday but it’s something to monitor. 

Taylor Gabriel: Don’t forget about Gabriel the way many have. The targets he’s getting are eerily similar to the start of the season where he suddenly broke-out for back-to-back 100-yard games. He’s now seen 31 targets over the last four games, which ranks 17th among wide receivers. A guy who needs one play to hit value seeing that many targets is a good thing. The Packers had undrafted rookie Tony Brown playing opposite Jaire Alexander last week, who allowed three catches for 35 yards and a touchdown on five targets in his coverage. He has 4.35-second speed, but his coverage skills aren’t what would be described as good. As a team, the Packers have been mediocre in the secondary, right around the league average, though the 19 touchdowns allowed to wide receivers does rank as the second-most in the league. Gabriel is seeing enough targets to warrant WR4 consideration and the matchup does little to worry me.

Anthony Miller: He played just 52 percent of the snaps last week, his second-lowest mark of the season. He was also targeted just one time, which gives him three targets over the last two weeks. Not great. One odd tidbit about Miller is that he hasn’t gone two games in a row without scoring a touchdown (crazy, right?). The Packers moved Josh Jackson into the slot last week, something they’ve done at times this season with all the injuries in their secondary. While covering the slot, Jackson has allowed 18-of-25 passing for 218 yards and a touchdown, amounting to a 111.8 QB Rating. It’s rookie-on-rookie and Miller should be able to win the matchup with Jackson playing somewhat out of place, but his targets the last two weeks are extremely worrisome. At this point, Gabriel is the better option, bumping Miller down into WR5 territory.

TEs
Jimmy Graham: It’s been an up-and-down season for Graham, though mostly down as of late, as four of his last five games have netted below 35 yards. Playing through a broken thumb in freezing temps surely isn’t easy, but it’s what he’s going to be doing once again this week. To make matters worse, the Bears have not allowed a tight end to hit 50 yards against them all season and haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown since way back in Week 8. With tight ends, you’re looking for a target floor (Graham has seen in-between 4-6 targets most weeks), a high probability of a touchdown (Bears haven’t allowed one in last six games), and a great matchup (the Bears have allowed the eighth-fewest points to tight ends). While I won’t scratch him because his targets do come from Rodgers, but he lacks upside in this contest. He’s just a middling to high-end TE2 this week who would need to score to do any better than that.

Trey Burton: It’s hard to explain what’s happened to Burton over the last six games, as he started the season with 24 receptions for 325 yards and four touchdowns, but has since fallen off a cliff, totaling just 16 receptions for 145 yards and one touchdown over the last six games. He was supposed to be a focal point, but it appears we cannot rely on that anymore. It does help to have Trubisky under center again, as those two have had a good connection all year. The Packers, however, have not been a matchup to target with tight ends, as they’ve allowed one touchdown through 13 games, which ranks second-best in the league. Part of it has to do with tight ends seeing just four red zone targets against them all season, which is the lowest in the league by far, as the next closest team is at nine red zone targets. But whatever the case, their scheme doesn’t favor the tight end position and because of that, there’s been just three top-12 performances against them all season and none better than TE8. Burton has moved off the TE1 radar and into the high-end TE2 territory. This matchup isn’t likely the one to bring him back, as he totaled just one catch for 15 yards in the first meeting.