Let’s Make a Deal: 10 Players to Target in Trades in Week 6 (2020 Fantasy Football)
We got an extra day of trading activity to incorporate into this article this week in light of the lack of a Thursday night game, and it made a huge difference. The top-three most traded players since Monday in leagues of managers that have incorporated their teams into MyPlaybook were all dealt well over 1,000 times just since yesterday. Here is a look at the top-10 players traded from Monday through Friday of this week:
|RANK||PLAYER||# OF TRADES (10/12 – 10/16)|
|1||Le’Veon Bell (RB – KC)||3,452|
|2||Kenyan Drake (RB – ARI)||2,861|
|3||Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)||2,677|
|4||Michael Thomas (WR – NO)||2,486|
|5||David Montgomery (RB – CHI)||2,426|
|6||Devonta Freeman (RB – NYG)||2,424|
|7||Darrell Henderson (RB – LAR)||2,386|
|8||Myles Gaskin (RB – MIA)||2,316|
|9||Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)||2,210|
|10||Ronald Jones II (RB – TB)||2,187|
As we do each week here, let’s examine each player and, using the trade value chart, propose some potential deals for fantasy managers.
Chiefs Running Backs
Not surprisingly, the vast majority of the trades involving Le’Veon Bell and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have taken place since yesterday, when Bell finalized his deal with the Chiefs. Bell won’t play in Week 6, but should be ready to go next week against the Broncos.
Fantasy managers have no idea how the Kansas City backfield will break down. But for now, I’ve moved Edwards-Helaire to RB15 in my ROS rankings, and Bell to 30th. So, if there is an opportunity to buy-low or sell high based on that ranking, I would personally do so.
It seems unlikely that Bell will be productive enough to take over the lead role, though I wouldn’t put that possibility in the “impossible” category. Bell is motivated to show that he still has something left in the tank. If Edwards-Helaire falters, and Bell thrives, there is a plausible, albeit unlikely, scenario where Bell is the better back rest of season.
But Bell did not look good with the Jets, and Edwards-Helaire is more explosive, so there’s no reason to expect that to happen. Instead, I expect Edwards-Helaire to get roughly two-thirds of the running back touches going forward, with Bell garnering the remaining third. Bell may factor into the goal-line work, too, but because I project him to have single-digit touches most weeks, I’m keeping him in the mid-tier RB3 range.
But understand that there is risk in dealing for or away Edwards-Helaire or Bell. So there’s no shame in holding firm.
Let’s not belabor Drake’s appearance on this list, as he was the most-traded player last week. In last week’s article, I wrote that Drake was my 19th-ranked running back going forward, that he was a buy-low target but not one I was rushing out to try to acquire. Specifically, I said: “although Drake presents a buy-low opportunity, the operative word is low, and only pay full price if you are in real need of a running back with upside.”
The same applies today. Drake is my 22nd-ranked running back going forward, and I think that is likely a higher value than the market places on him. Despite the risks, I would look to sell high on Ronald Jones or Devonta Freeman for Drake, or try to swap him for a rising receiver like Tee Higgins. Fantasy managers rostering Drake are panicking. There is an opportunity for those looking to take the risk.
Three running backs on this week’s most-traded lists present sell-high opportunities, though each is to a varying degree.
Darrell Henderson is coming off a two-touchdown game against the Washington Football Team, despite the fact that both Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers were active and played. With fantasy managers desperate for production at the running back position, Henderson is someone who should be able to bring back a reasonable return.
I would be looking to move Henderson immediately if I rostered him to capitalize on his inflated perceived value. Sean McVay wants this backfield to be a committee, and with Akers healthy, the rookie will likely continue to get more work. A running back who can help you immediately, like Mike Davis or Alexander Mattison,is worth the swap, but I would shoot higher, and certainly make the change for Drake if I could. At wide receiver, any WR3 would be enough for me to make the swap, but I’d shoot for someone like Tyler Boyd or DeVante Parker first.
Devonta Freeman also presents a sell-high opportunity after his 87-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Cowboys, though I wouldn’t be rushing out to try to deal him away. Freeman’s yards-per-carry average may be sub-par right now, but he’s running decisively and looks better every week. He has a tough slate of run defenses on tap for the next few games, but still, he should have a floor of 15 touches weekly, enough to make him a high-end RB3 at worst most weeks.
If you can trade him for Drake, I would do so, as I mentioned, but I’d also be looking in the Jamison Crowder/Marquise Brown range at wide receiver. Both are worth more than Freeman ROS, and with teams in desperate need of a solid weekly floor at running back, a receiver in that range should be attainable.
Ronald Jones should also be considered a sell-high candidate, but he has the most value of the three. Jones has run extremely well the last two games against the Chargers and Bears, but he’s had little competition for carries. With Leonard Fournette getting healthier and both Bruce Arians and Tom Brady having little appetite for mistakes, Jones’s leash is always going to be short. I’d swap him for Antonio Gibson or David Johnson, or a receiver like CeeDee Lamb.
Chances are, Michael Thomas’s value has reached its nadir. He’s been out for several weeks, was an unexpected scratch for Week 5 which left fantasy managers scrambling, is on a bye this week, and appears to be feuding with his own team.
None of that should matter to you. This is almost certainly Drew Brees‘s last season and despite a lackluster start to the season, the Saints remain a Super Bowl contender. They can’t get there without Thomas. He will be back in Week 7 against Carolina and produce like the WR1 he was drafted to be.
As for Lamar Jackson, he certainly has been a disappointment this year. He’s the 11th-ranked quarterback on the season and averaging a mere 19.95 fantasy points per game, after averaging 25.33 fantasy points per game last season. He’s also battle through a minor knee injury and is on pace for only 131 rush attempts, roughly a 25% drop from last year.
Don’t be overly concerned if you’re considering making an offer for Jackson. Yes, he has slipped to third in my rest-of-season quarterback rankings, but his current trade value isn’t far behind his preseason trade value (which had already baked in some regression).
In other words, to the extent the fantasy manager rostering Jackson is looking to make a deal, go ahead and swap whomever you would have been willing to trade a week or two ago. In a single-quarterback league, the means a running back like Todd Gurley or a receiver like Amari Cooper. In a two-quarterback or superflex league, that’s more like a Chris-Carson, Dalvin Cook, or Joe Mixon.
As I’ve said every week, David Montgomery is destined to be one of the most-traded players for the entirety of the season. He is the perfect blend of guaranteed and solid production with lack of explosiveness and upside, which makes him attractive to fantasy managers struggling for bodies at the running back position but less enticing to managers rostering him. But with Tarik Cohen out for the season, Montgomery will factor in more in the passing game and should have plenty of value, so feel free to swap someone like Antonio Gibson or Cooper Kupp. If you roster Montgomery, however, you should probably just hold and enjoy the production.
As for Gaskin, he was a major rest-of-season riser this week after he found the end zone, largely thanks to Jordan Howard being inactive. If Howard is sidelined going forward, Gaskin can be considered a borderline RB2 for the remainder of the season. If Howard returns and garners the goal-line work, Gaskin is a Flex play.
I’d value him as the former. There’s little reason for Howard to siphon carries from the superior runner in Gaskin from here on out. The youngster is also game script-proof, given how much he factors into the passing game.
In other words, I wouldn’t trade Gaskin if I rostered him. And I’d sell high on Ronald Jones or Freeman to try to acquire him if I could.
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