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Best Ball Values to Target Based on ADP (2022 Fantasy Football)

May 13, 2022
Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard’s best-ball ADP is 84 places higher than it was a week ago.

Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III has been live for well over a week now, and there have already been massive ADP movers in the aftermath of the 2022 NFL Draft.

The following report will break down the biggest risers and fallers from the tournament’s launch date at each of the four skill positions, with additional insight into actions to take with the players that are shaking up early 2022 best ball ADP.

You’ll find that the majority of biggest risers are first-year players, many of which did not even have ADPs when BBM III initially kicked off.

OVERALL BIGGEST RISERS

Player ADP Increase Rank Current ADP
Skyy Moore 131.6 1 84.4
Christian Watson 118.1 2 97.9
James Cook 106.9 3 109.1
Dameon Pierce 88 4 128
Allen Lazard 83.9 5 106.1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 71.9 6 110.1
Tyler Allgeier 67.3 7 148.7
James Conner 65.1 8 29.9
Robert Tonyan 57.5 9 139.5
Jamison Crowder 53.9 10 151.1
JuJu Smith-Schuster 51 11 57
Rob Gronkowski 47.7 12 127.3
Courtland Sutton 47.5 13 54.5
Alec Pierce 42.5 14 173.5
Sammy Watkins 41.1 15 174.9
Ronald Jones 40.5 16 127.5
Marlon Mack 39.6 17 176.4
Russell Gage 38.1 18 106.9
Jerry Jeudy 36.9 19 45.1
Jalen Tolbert 36.1 20 179.9
Taysom Hill 36.1 21 179.9
Allen Robinson 35.2 22 58.8
Tyrion Davis-Price 31.5 23 184.5
Rashod Bateman 29.6 24 63.4
Rachaad White 29.2 25 132.8
Raheem Mostert 28.8 26 151.2
A.J. Green 27.1 27 188.9
Cordarrelle Patterson 26.7 28 84.3
Hayden Hurst 26 29 190
David Njoku 25.2 30 159.8
Nyheim Hines 25.1 31 163.9
Treylon Burks 25 32 73
Tim Patrick 23.5 33 146.5
Mike Evans 22.1 34 20.9
Mecole Hardman 21.4 35 133.6
Miles Sanders 20.8 36 86.2
Drake London 20.1 37 69.9
Dalton Schultz 20.1 38 79.9
Jahan Dotson 19.8 39 145.2
Marquise Brown 19.7 40 44.3
DeVante Parker 18.6 41 131.4
Michael Gallup 18.4 42 104.6
Chase Edmonds 18.2 43 108.8
Michael Pittman 18 44 40
Jared Goff 17.4 45 188.6
Aaron Jones 16.6 46 25.4
J.D. McKissic 15.3 47 192.7
Irv Smith 14.9 48 138.1
Mike Williams 14.9 49 46.1
Davis Mills 14.8 50 201.2

 
It seems only fitting that the biggest riser who has seen his ADP skyrocket in the past week has the word “sky” in his name. Former Western Michigan and Kansas City Chiefs’ second-round pick Skyy Moore has wooed the best-ball drafting complex enough to raise his ADP inside the top-90 overall players.

And I’m entirely on board because he’s still undervalued.

Moore has a chance to hit the ground running in the post-Tyreek Hill era, competing for targets with fellow newcomers JuJu Smith Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His impressive YAC ability – tied for first with 26 forced missed tackles in 2021 – and ability to play both inside/outside helps him stand out from the other Chiefs’ WRs.

Moore could smash his current ECR into the stratosphere with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. It’s not that outlandish to think a second-rounder can immediately impact, considering six of the 12 highest-scoring Round 1 & 2 rookie WRs selected since 2017 were second-rounders.

Rookie running backs like James Cook, Dameon Pierce, and Tyler Allgeier headline as the biggest risers, with their new landing spots representing immediate/fruitful opportunities. But the veteran that the market is finally starting to value more is Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner.

The Cardinals re-signed their RB1 from a season ago to a three-year, $21 million extension this offseason, locking him in as their guy for the foreseeable future. It’s a great signing for fantasy football because it puts Conner firmly in the top-12 running back conversation, especially with Chase Edmonds landing in Miami.

The ex-Steelers running back finished the 2021 season tied for second in goal-line carries and third in touchdowns (18). Conner received extensive work in the passing game with Edmonds out of the lineup from Weeks 9-14 and Week 18. Conner averaged 26.2 fantasy points and 5.5 targets per game in those six games while running a route on 61% of the Cardinals’ dropbacks. His RB finishes in half-point scoring during those weeks: RB1, RB16, RB8, RB11, RB2, and RB3.

With DeAndre Hopkins serving a suspension and the running back depth chart barren between Eno Benjamin, Keaontay Ingram, and Jaylen Samuels, Conner is set to smash in 2022.

His RB15 ADP at 29.9 overall is still too low.

Green Packers tight end Robert Tonyan is the highest rising tight end going from a fringe top-200 pick to TE16. It makes sense that Tonyan experienced a boost because the Packers ranked fourth in the NFL in vacated targets from last season, and Green Bay did not add any other tight ends this offseason.

Tonyan wasn’t particularly effective last season before his injury – only two games with over 10 fantasy points and TE29 in fantasy points per game – but the path to upside exists in an offense led by Aaron Rodgers.

Don’t be too quick to forget that Tonyan caught 11 touchdowns in 2020, and there are many red-zone opportunities left with Adams removed from the equation. The new Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver has earned 28 red-zone targets over the last two seasons – most by any player.

As long as Tonyan remains just outside the middle-range tight end ADP, he is definitely worth an 11th or 12th round selection. With so much ambiguity regarding which wide receiver will emerge from Green Bay, the right answer might be just drafting Tonyan instead.

There weren’t many major movers at the quarterback position outside Jared Goff, Davis Mills, and Jalen Hurts seeing a full-round bump in ADP. The increases are warranted after their teams elected to forego adding a quarterback from this year’s draft class, and they are also well-deserved because each team added more talent on the offensive side of the ball.

Most notably, with the Philadelphia Eagles landing A.J. Brown. Brown’s absurd efficiency and YAC-ability in Tennessee was a primary driving force behind Ryan Tannehill‘s fantasy success as a Titan. Hurts is an easy top-five fantasy quarterback next season with QB1 overall status well within reach. A season ago, the Eagles ranked second in screen rate, so anticipate plenty of plays where Hurts just dumps the ball off to AJB for massive chunk gains. Brown finished fourth in yards per route run last season (2.72) despite battling injuries throughout the season.

With Hurts’ ADP resting at QB7 at 65th overall, I am drafting him in every single best ball draft I can. In the 20 games the Eagles quarterback has played as a starter where he played a full four quarters, Hurts has been a top-12 quarterback at an 85% clip.

OVERALL BIGGEST FALLERS

Player ADP Decrease Rank Current ADP
Kyren Williams -80.5 1 213.5
Michael Carter -61.7 2 128.7
Odell Beckham -59.6 3 169.6
Laviska Shenault -58.1 4 199.1
Malik Willis -51.7 5 215.7
Cedrick Wilson -49.6 6 212.6
C.J. Uzomah -49 7 208
Kendrick Bourne -48.7 8 197.7
Chris Carson -47.7 9 214.7
Noah Fant -47.1 10 165.1
Julio Jones -44.6 11 188.6
DeAndre Hopkins -42.2 12 74.2
Ryan Tannehill -42 13 167
Trey McBride -39.9 14 210.9
Myles Gaskin -37.9 15 215.9
Tyler Lockett -37.7 16 84.7
Mac Jones -36.6 17 175.6
Joshua Palmer -35.9 18 169.9
Chuba Hubbard -35.7 19 208.7
Isaiah Spiller -33.7 20 139.7
Byron Pringle -33 21 212
Dan Arnold -31.9 22 215.9
Trey Lance -31.0 23 99
Nico Collins -30.7 24 199.7
Jameson Williams -30.4 25 109.4
Braxton Berrios -29.2 26 215.2
Devin Singletary -28.7 27 103.7
Ke’Shawn Vaughn -28.7 28 215.7
Trevor Lawrence -26.9 29 142.9
Logan Thomas -26.6 30 174.6
Curtis Samuel -26.2 31 172.2
Corey Davis -25.9 32 147.9
Justin Fields -25.8 33 129.8
Marquez Callaway -25.2 34 213.2
Aaron Rodgers -24.8 35 95.8
Antonio Gibson -24.7 36 54.7
Justin Jackson -24.3 37 215.3
Cole Beasley -23.6 38 215.6
Deshaun Watson -22.7 39 105.7
Robby Anderson -22.7 40 183.7
Kirk Cousins -22.6 41 119.6
Daniel Jones -22.1 42 169.1
Kadarius Toney -22 43 110
Jarvis Landry -21.7 44 161.7
Hunter Renfrow -21 45 86
William Fuller -20.9 46 150.9
Sterling Shepard -20.5 47 203.5
Terrace Marshall -20.5 48 215.5
Derek Carr -19.8 49 106.8
Dak Prescott -19.6 50 82.6

 
Most of the ADP fallers are pretty obvious, i.e., Michael Carter with the Jets drafting Breece Hall. But some notable names might be falling for other reasons.

Injuries are obviously in play with Odell Beckham Jr.‘s draft stock in freefall as the WR72 per ADP. The latest reports are that he wants to stay with the Los Angeles Rams and that the Packers have done “a lot of work on him.” We all know that the minute he signs with any team, his ADP will bump back up dramatically, so take the discount on him now.

Even if he’s a zero during most of the regular season, OBJ could be a difference-making piece for you during the Best Ball Mania III playoffs from Weeks 14-17. It’s no guarantee that the other WRs being drafted in his ADP range – K.J. Osborn, Joshua Palmer, Alec Pierce, Curtis Samuel – are sure-fire bets to produce.

May as well take the shot on the guy who has the proven production and averaged a 19% target share with 12.4 fantasy points per game from Week 12 through the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

The big quarterback fallers included Titans quarterbacks, Patriots second-year quarterback Mac Jones and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance. Malik Willis probably won’t play any games this season as long as Ryan Tannehill is healthy, so it makes sense that he is going undrafted in most formats.

Tannehill’s colossal slide is a result of the A.J. Brown trade. Even with Treylon Burks in the fold, it’s hard to get overly excited about the Tennessee QB in one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses devoid of any elite, proven pass-catchers.

Jones’ stumble is a bit more peculiar as the Patriots didn’t necessarily do anything that would impede him from taking a step forward in Year 2. Obviously, adding Cole Strange and Tyquan Thorton wasn’t anyone’s ideal way of setting Jones up for success, but those players are still an investment in the offense.

Jones looks like the ideal QB3 to snag in BBM III. Over the final eight weeks, Jones averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game — a massive increase from the first half of the season (13.8) that matched Derek Carr’s season-long numbers.

Lance is falling because of reports surfacing that he is underwhelming at OTAs and because Jimmy Garoppolo remains on the roster. But after the 49ers beat reporters butchered the Trey Sermon situation last season and the 49ers’ massive investment in Lance last year, I view this situation as an easy buy-low scenario.

Garoppolo’s shoulder surgery is the reason he hasn’t been traded. Once he is deemed healthy, I’d presume he gets moved to a QB-needy team or to a roster that sustains an injury at the position.

Logan Thomas is the tight end name to highlight with his ADP falling two rounds. I’d don’t think this is a result of the team drafting Cole Turner in Round 5 and more of an acknowledgment of Thomas’ return from a least-season ACL injury. Chances are he misses the first few weeks of the season. But similar to the case with OBJ, he can be a force for you down the stretch when healthy.

Thomas figures to be back in the starting role after signing an extension last season. I’d buy low on him across the board coming off his injury-plagued season, which limited him to just five full games. The Washington tight end role features a 90%-plus route run per dropback rate, which is extremely rare to find among NFL offenses.

CTAs


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Andrew Erickson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter at @AndrewErickson_.

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