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“Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. And now it’s here. Or should I say, I am.”

– Bye Weeks (Well, really it’s Thanos.)

The test of our fantasy mettle has begun. With the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans all on bye this week, our fantasy squads are thinner. We’re scouring the waiver wire looking for plays, balancing dropping players for desperation starts only to regret it in the end, and praying we pick the right streaming tight end. You know. The one that luck boxes a touchdown with 0:14 left on the clock, sending us yelling and screaming in joy around the living room as the rest of our family stares in disbelief. (There’s no shame in it)

Let’s dig deep. Give those fantasy rosters a rousing pep talk before kick-off.

“Chaos isn’t a pit. Chaos is a ladder.”

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• SF -6, O/U 43
• 49ers vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Ding ding ding. We have a winner! This game will be the slowest and most run-heavy of the Week 6 slate. Atlanta is 22nd in neutral pace, followed by the 49ers at 30th. Each of these teams is top-12 in neutral rushing rate (ATL second, SF tenth).

Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo: Since reassuming the starting job in San Francisco, Garoppolo is the QB27 in fantasy points per game. This is the lens to view him through as a mid to low-end QB2. While he has been playing solid football, ranking 16th in PFF passing grade, eighth in yards per attempt, and 12th in big-time throw rate, his overall raw volume and accuracy hold him back. Since Week 3, Garoppolo has been 20th in passing attempts and 15th in passing yards while struggling to 32nd in adjusted completion rate. The Falcons offer a solid matchup as they are second in success rate and 13th in EPA per dropback. This secondary is also 22nd in explosive pass rate.

Marcus Mariota: Mariota is a must-sit quarterback this week. As the QB22 in fantasy points per game, his dreadful quarterbacking play could catch up with him soon and end up with a benching. He’s 27th in PFF passing grade, 39th in adjusted completion rate (out of 40 QBs), tenth in turnover-worthy play rate, and holding the ball forever with the sixth-highest time to throw (minimum 25 dropbacks). The 49ers will smother him this week. They are fifth in pass defense DVOA, ranking top-six in passing yards allowed per game, EPA per drop back, and explosive pass rate allowed.

Running Backs

Week 5

Jeff Wilson: Since assuming the starting running back role for the 49ers, Wilson is the RB14 in fantasy. He’s averaged 17.8 touches and 103.8 total yards, with at least 74 rushing yards in every game. Wilson has been a steady source of fantasy goodness and volume despite being a league-average (or below) rushing talent. He’s 38th in yards after contact per attempt and 48th in PFF’s elusive rating (out of 66 RBs with at least 15 carries). Where he’s made his money is ranking eighth in breakaway rate. Wilson is a rock-solid RB2 in a plus matchup. Atlanta is third-worst in rushing success rate and rush EPA. They have surrendered the 13th-most fantasy points per game to running backs and rank 16th in explosive run rate allowed.

Tevin Coleman: Coleman finally broke into the boxscore in Week 5. He was active in Week 4 but only played one offensive snap. In Week 5, he logged 28% of the snaps with 11 touches, 67 total yards, and two touchdowns as the RB9 for the week. Coleman ran hot with touchdowns as his efficiency metrics more closely resemble a washed-up 29-year-old running back. He’s only managed 1.00 yards after contact per attempt with his eight rushing attempts while failing to register any missed tackles forced. Coleman is a low-end stash candidate, but I can’t possibly recommend that anyone put him in their lineups this week despite the “revenge game” narrative.

Week 5

Tyler Allgeier: Last week as the Falcons’ primary rusher, he saw 13 touches (59% snaps), turning them into 45 total yards. Despite being a zero in the passing game with no targets, his route run rate was quite strong at 65.7%. Allegeier’s primary fantasy value will be found in his early down contributions because the Falcons have not targeted their running backs this year, ranking second-worst in the NFL (12.1%). With that being said, Allgeier is a volume based, low-end RB3 in a horrendous matchup. The 49ers have been a shutdown run defense, ranking second-best in explosive run rate, rushing yards per game, and rushing success rate allowed.

Caleb Huntley: Huntley is a low-end stash that has been a breather back for Allgeier in back-to-back games averaging nine touches and 45 total yards (zero targets and routes).

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel: Samuel is the WR17 this season with a 27.6% Target share (15th among wideouts) and 0.50 weighted opportunity (27th). He leads the 49ers in endzone Target share (50%). The biggest problem with Samuel’s usage is that the team has returned to their old ways of using him as a dump-off artist with a 4.2 aDOT. This hasn’t stopped Samuel from producing, ranking second in YAC per reception, 31st in yards per route run (minimum ten targets), and 33rd in receiving yards. His rushing usage has declined as the season has progressed, with only two rushing attempts in each of the last two games. He’s a WR2 that’ll run about 66% of his routes against Casey Hayward and A.J. Terrell. Hayward’s play has improved as he has allowed a 52% catch rate and a 75.1 passer rating. Terrell still looks lost this season, with a 67.7% catch rate and a 132.7 passer rating in coverage.

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is a WR4/5 seeing a 20.1% Target share (5.4 targets per game) and 29.9% air yard share. He’s the WR45 this season that’s held back by a run-first offense and noodle-armed quarterback. He’s 31st in PFF receiving grade but 47th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He hasn’t crossed 60 receiving yards since Week 2. He’ll run about 74% of his routes this week against Terrell and Hayward.

Drake London: London is a superstar being held back by a run-first offense and shoddy quarterback play. His efficiency metrics have been stellar, as he’s fifth in PFF receiving grade, 22nd in yards per route run, third in Target share, and sixth in weighted opportunity. The problem is that this has amounted to only eight targets and 53.2 receiving yards per game. With his incredible play, he’s still managed to be the WR27 in fantasy. The 49ers are a tough matchup but one that London can excel against if given the volume. The 49ers utilize zone coverage heavily (69-70%), which is fantastic for London. He’s seen 65% of his target volume against zone, ranking third in yards per route run and second in PFF receiving grade against the coverage (minimum five targets). If Mariota throws more this week because of the tough rushing matchup, London can have a successful week. He’ll run about 86% of his routes against Charvarius Ward and Samuel Womack. Ward has allowed a 51.9% catch rate and 69.7 passer rating. Womack has given up a 70% catch rate and a 75.8 passer rating in coverage. London is a WR3 with WR2 upside this week.

Tight Ends

Another smash matchup for George Kittle…

ATL vs. TEs

– 3rd-most Rec Yds alloed
– 8th highest catch % allowed
– 5th-most f pts to inline TEs (Kittle inline 58.9%)

…to block his ass off. Damn it, Kyle. This sucks.

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 14, 2022

George Kittle: Kittle has been a resounding disappointment this year. He’s the TE28 in fantasy points per game, averaging only five targets, 3.7 receptions, and 33 receiving yards per game. Those numbers are nauseating, and we can point to usage, but Kittle’s efficiency has also declined. He’s 20th in PFF receiving grade, 17th in yards per route run, and 32nd in YAC per reception (minimum ten targets). Kittle is presented with another solid matchup this week, but it’s questionable whether he can or will be allowed to take advantage of it. Atlanta has allowed the third-most receiving yards, eighth-highest catch rate, and fifth-most fantasy points to inline tight ends (Kittle 58.9% inline). Kittle remains a TE1 and must-start, reflecting more of the tight-end position than Kittle’s production.

Kyle Pitts: Pitts logged limited practices (hamstring) all week and has been listed as questionable. The fantasy community has well-documented Arthur Smith’s negligence with Pitts. Pitts ranks third in Target share, third in target per route rate, seventh in yards per route run, and eighth in PFF receiving grade, but Smith has recently put him on the shelf. Since Week 3, his route run rate has dipped to 64.4%. Despite that and Pitts’ rank as TE23 in fantasy points per game, he’s a TE1 this week. Pitts is the TE8 in expected fantasy points. This incredibly poor luck for Pitts has to turn around. The matchup is brutal for him the week, though. San Francisco is fourth in DVOA, allowing the third-fewest receptions and second-lowest yards per reception to tight ends.

New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns

• CLE -3, O/U 42.5
• Patriots vs. Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• If the 49ers and Falcons don’t take the slo-mo rushing title, this game should. Cleveland is 25th in neutral pace, while the Patriots find themselves at 28th. New England is ranked fifth in neutral rushing rate, with Cleveland on their heels at sixth.

Quarterbacks

Mac Jones: We’ll see if Bailey Zappe makes another start under center or if Jones returns this week. Bill Belichick has stated that Saturday is a big day for Jones to determine his availability. Jones has been listed as questionable for Sunday’s action.

Bailey Zappe: Zappe could make his second NFL start if Jones can’t go. Check back tomorrow for more. Regardless of who is under center, this is a middle-of-the-road matchup. Cleveland is 18th in EPA per dropback, 19th in passing touchdown rate, and 12th (tied) in yards per attempt allowed. The Browns are also 23rd in pressure rate, so Jones or Zappe will have plenty of time in the pocket.

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett has been an adequate mid QB2 this season which honestly says more about the state of the quarterback position than it does about Brissett. Over the last four weeks, he’s finished as the QB16, QB12, QB16, and QB14. He’s done so while ranking 12th in PFF passing grade and protecting the football with the 11th-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). He’s still just a middling talent, as he’s 22nd in adjusted completion rate and 19th in big-time throw rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). The Patriots again field a tough pass defense. They have allowed the sixth-lowest success rate and ninth-lowest EPA per dropback. While they have the eighth-highest passing touchdown rate permitted this year, they have held opposing passers to the 11th-lowest yards per attempt mark. Brissett finds himself on the low-end spectrum of QB2s this week.

Running Backs

MONDRE…SZZZZZZZZZNNNNNNN

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) August 11, 2022

Rhamondre Stevenson: With Damien Harris succumbing to injury last week, Stevenson turned into a volume monster playing 90% of the snaps with 27 touches and 175 total yards. He handled 75.8% of the rushing attempts and a 9.5% Target share with a 63.6% route run rate. Stevenson has been one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. He ranks third in yards after contact per attempt, ninth in missed tackles forced, 20th in breakaway rate, and tenth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). The Browns are a smash matchup for Stevenson with the fourth-highest rushing success rate, second-highest explosive run rate, and fifth-most rushing yards per game allowed. Harris was able to get in limited practices on Thursday and Friday, so it looks like full-blown Mondre SZN could be put on hold. Stevenson falls to RB2/high-end RB3 status if Harris is active. If Harris remains out, fire up Stevenson as an RB1.

Damien Harris: Harris is the RB28 in fantasy points per game. He’s 15th in red zone touches, third in juke rate, fifth in evaded tackles, and 29th in yards created. In Weeks 1-4, he played 38-45% of the snaps averaging 15.1 touches and 68.8 total yards per game. If he’s active, he’s an RB3 who could handle the goal line work, thus crushing the Stevenson hype. Monitor this up to kickoff because we know Coach Bill loves to crush our fantasy football hopes.

Weeks 1-5

Nick Chubb: Chubb has been a Greek god in fantasy this season. He’s the RB2 in fantasy rushing for over 100 yards in four of five games. He’s averaged 20.8 touches and 126 total yards. He’s essentially STILL a lock for 20 touches and over 100 rushing yards each week which insane. He’s a top-five real-life NFL running back. He’s fourth in yards after contact per attempt, first in missed tackles forced (nine more than the closest running back), 14th in breakaway rate, and first in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). The Patriots are another advantageous opponent for Chubb who have the second-highest rushing success rate, sixth-highest EPA per rush, and 11th-most rushing yards per game allowed. They have not allowed a touchdown to a running back yet, but this feels like small sample variance.

Kareem Hunt: While Hunt hasn’t been on Chubb’s level, he’s still been the RB17 this season with 14.2 touches and 66 total yards per game. What’s hurt Hunt is that his per-touch efficiency has dipped as he’s 28th in yards after contact per attempt, 30th in PFF’s elusive rating, and 32nd in yards per route run. With his red zone usage outpacing Chubb’s, the high-value touches remain to keep him in the low-end RB range. While the Patriots haven’t allowed a receiving touchdown to running backs, they are still 27th in DVOA, yielding the second-highest yards per reception and seventh-most receiving yards. Hunt should be able to make the most of his dump-offs this week.

Wide Receivers

Jakobi Meyers is THAT DUDE

AND NO ONE SEEMS TO CARE…AT ALL.

31.8% tg share – 4th

39.5% air yard share – 7th

Weighted Opportunity – 3rd

YPRR – 3rd

WR8 in fantasy points per game pic.twitter.com/lh4EG0tjgm

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 15, 2022

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers has operated as an elite fantasy option in his three games played. Yes, I said it. Elite. He’s seen the fourth-highest Target share (31.8%), seventh-highest air yard share (39.5%), and third-highest weighted opportunity. He is sixth in receiving yards per game (87) and third in yards per route run as the WR8 in fantasy points per game. He’ll run about 64% of his routes against Greg Newsome in the slot, which has allowed a 60.9% catch rate and 98.5 passer rating. Meyers is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3. No other Patriots’ wide receiver is worthy of a lineup spot. Meyers was the only receiver to eclipse an 80% route run rate as the depth chart has been a rotation behind him.

Amari Cooper: Cooper has surpassed my expectations for him entering this season. He’s the WR18 in fantasy points per game and has finished as a WR1 in three of five games. Cooper is 24th in PFF receiving grade and 36th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s been a high-value target magnet, ranking tenth in weighted opportunity and 14th in red zone targets. He’ll see Jalen Mills and Jack Jones in coverage on about 77% of his routes. Mills has allowed a 66.7% catch rate and a 95.3 passer rating. Jones has surrendered a 55.6% catch rate and a 42.6 passer rating. The Patriots are an average matchup for wide receivers ranking 17th in fantasy points per game allowed. Cooper is a WR2.

Donovan Peoples-Jones: Peoples-Jones is a low-end deep league flex. He’s the WR75 in fantasy points per game with a 20% Target share (6.2 targets per game) that he’s only turned into 38.2 receiving yards per game. He’ll run about 71% of his routes against Mills and Jones.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: Without Smith last week Henry played 98% of the snaps with a 23.2% Target share and 95.2% route participation clip. His five targets and 54 receiving yards were both season-highs. If Smith is out again, Henry is a deep league streamer. The Browns are a tough matchup for tight ends ranking sixth in DVOA allowing the lowest catch rate to the position.

Jonnu Smith: Smith practiced (ankle) in a limited fashion all week and has been listed as questionable. He seems more likely to play this week. In Weeks 1-4, he saw an 11.3% Target share, but he only ran a route on 40.2% of dropbacks. With that limited usage, he’s not playable if active.

David Njoku: Njoku is currently crushing as the TE8 in fantasy. He’s second in PFF receiving grade, third in yards per route run, and first in target per route run rate (minimum ten targets). He’s fourth in red zone targets, but so far only has one touchdown to his credit. That could change this week. The Patriots are eighth in DVOA but have allowed the most receiving touchdowns (five) to tight ends. Njoku is also fifth in YAC and now faces a Patriots defense that’s fifth in missed tackles. Njoku is a top-ten TE option.

New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers

• GB -7, O/U 45
• Jets vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• From a pace perspective, this will be a push-and-pull affair while the Jets (sixth in neutral pace) try and coax the Packers out of their shell (31st in neutral pace).
• After a slow start, the Packers are 14th in neutral passing rate since Week 3. The Jets are moving in the opposite direction. With Zach Wilson under center, they have been run-balanced (50/50). The offensive coaching staff has also displayed no confidence in Wilson inside the 20. New York is second in red zone rushing rate over the last two games. This is after leading the league in red zone passing rate for the first three weeks.

Quarterbacks

Zach Wilson: Wilson is a low-end QB2. The Jets hid him last week with only 21 passing attempts, and that could easily be the plan again this week. Green Bay is 13th in success rate and tenth in EPA per dropback. They have allowed the ninth-lowest passing touchdown rate while blitzing at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Wilson is 19th in adjusted completion rate with the fourth-highest turnover-worthy play rate since Week 4 (minimum 25 dropbacks). If the blitz can get home, Wilson will fold. He’s 31st in PFF passing grade (out of 37 QBs) and 35th in yards per attempt against the blitz (minimum ten blitzed dropbacks).

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has begun to heat up in fantasy as he’s playing good football. He’s been the QB13, QB14, and QB14 over the last three weeks. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of the last four games. He’s eighth in PFF passing grade, 11th in accuracy rating, and seventh in true passer rating. The Jets’ secondary has surprised, but this is still a team you can throw on. They have given up the tenth-highest EPA per dropback and the 12th-highest passing touchdown rate. They have done a fine job at manufacturing pressure (third) despite not blitzing (fourth-lowest). Rodgers has had no issues with pressure, with the sixth-highest PFF passing grade, sixth-best big-time throw rate against pressure, and the 12th-best adjusted completion rate. Rodgers is a rock-solid QB1.

Running Backs

Weeks 4-5

Breece Hall: Hall has taken over this backfield since Week 4. He’s finished as the RB15 and RB4 while playing 67.5% of the snaps averaging 19.5 touches and 137.5 total yards. He’s the RB10 in fantasy points per game overall this season. While Carter has still factored into the red zone work, Hall owns most of the early downs and routes. He’s running behind an offensive line that’s 11th in second-level yards, so they have had no issues springing him for big plays. Hall is sixth in yards created per touch, second in breakaway run rate, and tenth in evaded tackles. He will decimate a Green Bay run defense that’s allowed the highest rush success rate in the NFL while also sitting at 29th in rush EPA and 27th in explosive run rate allowed. Hall is a top-ten running back.

Michael Carter: Carter remains a viable flex play with this mouthwatering run defense on deck. Over the last two games, he averaged 43% of the snaps with 11.5 touches and 31 total yards. He has only seen three fewer red zone opportunities than Hall. As good as Hall is, let’s not forget that Carter isn’t an average shmo. He’s 19th in evaded tackles, 21st in juke rate, and 22nd in breakaway run rate.

Weeks 1-4

Week 5

Aaron Jones: After operating on the wrong side of a split backfield through the first four weeks of the NFL season, in Week 5, the backfield usage flipped heavily back in favor of Jones. He played a season-high 73% of the snaps. This season, he’s averaged 15 touches and 97.6 total yards as the RB15 in fantasy. He’s been one the best backs in the NFL, ranking tenth in yards after contact per attempt and sixth in PFF’s elusive rating minimum 15 carries). Jones can lay waste to this Jets’ run defense that’s 24th in explosive run rate, 18th in EPA, and allows the eighth-highest rush success rate. Jones is an RB1.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon saw his lowest snap share of the season in Week 5 (32%). He handled only six carries and didn’t see a target. Before that, he averaged 54% of the snaps, 16.6 touches, and 70.1 total yards. Dillon’s reduction in workload could be a blip on the radar or a result of his “just a guy” efficiency metrics this year. He’s 44th in yards per touch, 37th in juke rate, and 52nd in yards created per touch, and he hasn’t logged a breakaway run yet. With his touch share uncertain, Dillon is a risky RB3.

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: Since Week 2, Wilson has led New York with a 23.8% Target share and a 55.6% end zone Target share. With Zach Wilson back under center over the last two games and the offensive design changing, Garrett Wilson has seen his numbers nerfed. He’s averaged five targets, 2.5 receptions, and 34 receiving yards. He leads the team, ranking 19th in PFF receiving grade and sitting at 40th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’ll run about 58% of his routes against Rasul Douglas (76.5% catch rate, 85.7 passer rating) in the slot. Wilson is a WR3/4.

Corey Davis: Davis is second among the wide receivers, tied with Elijah Moore with a 14.5% Target share. He leads the team with a 27.3% air yard share (15.2 aDOT) as the team’s deep threat. He’s tied with Moore for the team lead in targets. Davis has been equally volatile with Zach Wilson back at the helm as the WR15 and WR72 since Week 4. He’ll run about 78% of his routes against Eric Stokes (87.5% catch rate, 114.6 passer rating) and Jaire Alexander (87.5% catch rate, 75.5 passer rating). Davis is a WR4 with some upside against a Packers’ secondary that’s 29th in DVOA against deep passing.

Elijah Moore: This season, Moore has barely registered on the fantasy radar as the WR74 in fantasy points per game. He’s surpassed 50 receiving yards once and hasn’t finished higher than WR44 in any week. He’s not drawing targets (14.8% Target share, 66th) and has done very little with the volume he’s seen (1.06 yards per route run). Moore is a sit until further notice.

Allen Lazard: Lazard is the WR27 in fantasy points per game on the strength of touchdowns. He has scored in three of his four games played despite eclipsing 50 receiving yards in only one game. Lazard has seen a 19.2% Target share with a 34.4% share of the team’s air yards. He’s been a high-value touch factory with seven deep targets and five red zone targets in only four games. He’s a strong WR3 this week. Lazard has seen 41.7% of his target volume via the slot, which means he’ll draw his looks against Michael Carter (82.4% catch rate, 108.1 passer rating).

Romeo Doubs: Since Week 3, Doubs has been a full-time player with a 19.2% Target share and 92.9% route run rate. He’s been a short-area weapon (6.6 aDOT) and red zone weapon (six red zone targets, 14th). He’s only seen 27.6% of his targets via the slot, as he’s run about 83% of his routes on the perimeter. This drops Doubs to a WR3/4 this week because the strength of this Jets secondary is on the outside. D.J. Reed (47.8% catch rate, 39.8 passer rating) and Sauce Gardner (50.0% catch rate, 62.3 passer rating) have been outstanding.

Did someone forget to tell Randall Cobb he's old?

PFF Receiving Grade – 4th

YPRR – 15th

Deep Targets – 6

(min 10 tgs, per PFF)

Flex viable & sneaky in Week 6. pic.twitter.com/1HiWS7Mmuc

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 13, 2022

Randall Cobb: Cobb is coming off a season-high 13 targets (33.3% Target share), seven receptions, and 99 receiving yards. His 63% snaps played and 70.7% route run rate are also high watermarks for this year. Cobb should continue the extended role with Christian Watson out. Cobb could return to his situational role or see extra run again this week. Cobb has turned back the clock this year as he’s ranked fourth in PFF receiving grade and 15th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s seen six deep targets and three red zone looks. He’ll run about 82% of routes against Carter in the slot. Cobb is a WR4/5.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: This isn’t the week to stream Conklin. With Wilson back, his 11.1% Target share has amounted to three targets per game. Over the last two games, his route run rate has declined to 56.2%. The Packers are 12th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the second-fewest receiving yards.

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan is low-end TE2. Over the last two games, he’s only seen an 8.6% Target share with a 57.1% route run clip. That’s not nearly good enough against a Jets’ defense that’s 14th in DVOA, allowing the eighth-lowest catch rate to the position.