Recently, we took a spin back to the 2023 offseason to consider who the experts that contribute towards our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) got right. In the interests of parity, it only seems fair now to take a look back at who they got wrong.
Our ECR draws on the collective minds of a range of experts across the industry, but that doesn’t mean it gets everything correct, and there certainly were some big misses.
20 Players Fantasy Football Experts Got Wrong
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) | ECR QB1
In 2022, Patrick Mahomes was the QB1 in total points and finished as the QB2 in points per game, and the ECR expected him to continue that. Unfortunately for the rankings, the loss of Tyreek Hill finally caught up with the Chiefs, and their mediocre wide receiver room coincided with Travis Kelce finally feeling his age. Mahomes finished as the QB14 in 2023, managing just a single top-12 finish in his last nine games.
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE) | ECR QB9
The season hadn’t even begun when reports emerged from training camp that Deshaun Watson had failed to shake off the rust of his lack of game time from the previous two years. Still, the ECR held firm and kept Watson ranked inside the top 10. Watson would go on to be one of the worst picks in fantasy football, finishing as the QB26 in points per game and QB36 in total points, playing only six games and ultimately being outshone by the 38-year-old Joe Flacco, who pulled Cleveland into the playoffs.
I enjoy the fact that it's Texans-Browns in the playoffs and Deshaun Watson is totally irrelevant. The Texans are glad to be rid of Watson, the Browns are better with an old man they got off the couch than they were with Watson.
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) January 9, 2024
Brock Purdy (QB – SF) | ECR QB21
The Ghost of Jimmy Garoppolo scared some into thinking the Brock Purdy magic of 2022 might not be real, and he could be mediocre for fantasy purposes, much like Garoppolo was for most of his time in San Francisco. Garoppolo managed 16 top-12 weekly finishes in his six-year career in San Francisco. Purdy managed 10 this year and showed us he would be far more relevant for fantasy football, finishing as the QB6 in total points.
Jordan Love (QB – GB) | ECR QB22
The Packers and the public were both a bit unsure of what we could expect from Jordan Love, but as soon as the season kicked off, it was clear his QB22 ranking was too low. Love pushed the ball downfield at a high rate to kick the year off, averaging 10.5 yards per target with no concerns about his accuracy. As the season progressed, he reigned it in slightly but showed he wasn’t going to check the ball down as consistently as Aaron Rodgers did and that interceptions weren’t going to worry him like they did Rodgers. It’s also fair to point out that Love had an incredibly youthful supporting cast, and it could have gone very differently. Instead, they turned into league-winners, and Love finished as the QB5.
Count Micah Parsons as impressed by Packers QB Jordan Love. He reminds him of … Aaron Rodgers. “You can tell he played under Rodgers,” Parsons said. “Some of his mechanics, some of his movements and reads. And fearlessness. You can tell he learned a lot from Rodgers.”
— Todd Archer (@toddarcher) January 11, 2024
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC) | ECR RB2
The cliff edge often comes for running backs swiftly when it does arrive. While Austin Ekeler had far fewer career carries than many 28-year-old running backs, the cliff edge caught up to him nonetheless. Ekeler set career lows in yards per carry (3.5), rushing touchdowns (one), catch rate (68.9%) and yards per touch (4.6). Ekeler was the consensus RB2 but finished as the RB22 in points per game and is now a free agent coming off a horrible year.
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) | ECR RB16
After a lightning rookie campaign, Dameon Pierce struggled to recreate the magic as he failed to pick up the playbook under the new coaching staff in Houston. In 2022, Pierce had averaged 72.2 rushing yards per game, but in 2023, that cratered to 29.7, with him averaging a miserable 2.9 yards per carry, eventually forcing the team to turn to veteran Devin Singletary instead. By Week 18, this led to no offensive touches and only playing on special teams, while Singletary had 24 touches. Pierce finished inside the top 20 running backs just twice this year, finishing as the RB42 or worse on eight occasions and ultimately ending the year as the RB57 in points per game.
I'm old enough to remember Dameon Pierce.
Those were the days— Curtis Hirsch (@curtisharsch) January 7, 2024
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS) | ECR RB35
The ECR was down on the Commanders’ running back room in general, perhaps not giving Brian Robinson Jr. enough of a pass for getting shot in the leg during his rookie year. Needless to say, when Robinson Jr. was the RB1 overall in Week 2, it raised a few eyebrows. He went on to have an up-and-down year but never finished outside the top 34 running backs, making him startable every week he played as, at worst, a flex option. Robinson Jr. finished as the RB21 in both points per game and total points.
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) | ECR RB63
RB2 overall, despite missing four games… mistakes were made. RB63 might have been a tad low, though, for a player being talked up positively by the Rams in 2022 before injuring himself on the season’s opening kickoff. Unfortunately, the Rams don’t play starters in preseason games, so nobody saw this coming.
Kyren Williams being a monster in pass protection pic.twitter.com/OIEhPsITi0
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 10, 2024
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) | ECR WR15
The fantasy community wasn’t particularly down on Keenan Allen; it just seemed that WR15 was a fair place to rank a 31-year-old wide receiver who hadn’t finished inside the top five at the position since 2017. When Mike Williams and Ekeler got injured early on in the season, Allen ascended to the next level, leading the league in targets per game (11.5) and finishing as the WR3 in points per game. The only negative was that he missed time at the end of the season when the Chargers season got flushed down the toilet.
Tee Higgins (WR – CIN) | ECR WR13
Things got ugly for Tee Higgins this year, with him unable to stay relevant in the wake of more injuries to Joe Burrow. Higgins himself battled injuries again and finished as the WR41 in points per game, managing four top-12 weeks but also six outside the top-45 wide receivers. Higgins was held without a touchdown in all but three games and would have hoped for a better outcome in a contract year.
Joe Burrow on Tee Higgins free agency: "I expect Tee to be back. We all expect Tee to be back. That's the sentiment we all have in the locker room."
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) January 8, 2024
Drake London (WR – ATL) | ECR WR23
Arthur Smith simply couldn’t let us have nice things, and ultimately, it cost him his job. Drake London had shown flashes in his rookie season, but Marcus Mariota‘s accuracy prevented him from breaking out. In 2023, the Falcons bypassed pursuing Lamar Jackson because of their belief in Desmond Ridder, so surely it would spell at least average things for Drake London? It did not. London crept up to 100 targets but saw his target share drop from an excellent 29% down to 22%, as he finished as the WR44 in points per game, with only four top-24 finishes all season.
Mike Evans (WR – TB) | ECR WR31
The worry was never about Mike Evans; it was always about Baker Mayfield, who frankly hadn’t looked like a good quarterback in years. Still, Mayfield managed to shred the cobwebs and reign in his bad tendencies to give Evans his 10th 1000-yard season of his 10-year career. Evans finished as the WR7 in total points and will now be a free agent after proving he still has it.
Jayden Reed (WR – GB) | ECR WR68
The fantasy community was enamored with Christian Watson‘s ceiling potential. They ranked him as the WR26, paying far too little attention to Jayden Reed. The rookie went on to outshine both Watson and fellow second-year receiver Romeo Doubs, who led the team with 95 targets but only put up 1.3 yards per route run compared to Reed’s excellent 1.9. Reed scored 10 touchdowns, the most of all rookie wide receivers, and finished as the WR28 in total points.
Jayden Reed was electric in his rookie season:
🟡 64 receptions (32 1st downs)
🟡 793 rec yards + 119 rush yards
🟡 12.2 yards per touch
🟡 10 total TD (T-2nd among rookies)Packers look like they struck gold on another 2nd rd WR ✅ pic.twitter.com/utuhFdFHGt
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 11, 2024
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) | ECR WR99
Much like with Williams… mistakes were made. Nobody could have expected Puka Nacua to break the rookie records for both receptions and receiving yards. Still, perhaps more respect should have been given to Nacua ahead of the likes of Tutu Atwell and Van Jefferson when we know Matthew Stafford can be a wide receiver’s best friend.
Darren Waller (TE – NYG) | ECR TE4
The offseason hype was relentless in New York as Darren Waller lit up the opposing defenders in training camp day after day. Once more, we fell into the trap of “Who else is there to catch the ball?” Well, one touchdown and only four games over 50 yards later, Waller finished as the TE13 with 9.4 points per game and missed six games with injury.
Remember the offseason when Darren Waller was like Hades stealing souls in every practice. The guy was a one-man highlight machine for the Giants social media team.
Anyhoo…. one touchdown and only four games over 50 yards. pic.twitter.com/aJjGJlIkTQ
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) January 11, 2024
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) | ECR TE7
Kyle Pitts’s knee injury turned out to be far worse than the Falcons ever told us. It would have been one thing to just be wrong on Pitts, but dealing with this while Jonnu Smith posted three top-five weeks to Pitts’s one really stung. Pitts finished the year as the TE17 in points per game and now enters year four with six career touchdowns. Can we finally get him a quarterback?
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN) | ECR TE13
In 2022, Chigoziem Okonkwo ran pure, seeing 21 targets between weeks 12-17 – the seventh-most among tight ends – and 2.5 yards per route run, the third most among all pass-catchers. If anything, TE13 felt respectful of the fact it could come crashing back down. However, Okonkwo regressed further than we could have hoped, finishing as the TE22 in total points and managing only two top-12 weeks.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET) | ECR TE19
Sam LaPorta was overall TE1 in total points and led the position in touchdowns with nine, three more than any other tight end. Looking back, it seemed fair to expect a top-20 outcome out of a rookie tight end, as what LaPorta did is just unheard of for rookie tight ends. One thing is for sure: In 2024, he won’t be ranked outside the top five tight ends, even if touchdown regression might be headed his way.
.@Lions @Samlaporta with the “old fake fall trip act” to get up; get open; and to finish with his 10th TD of season. Sometimes you gotta dust em off. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/ZqSSPvXcvI
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) January 10, 2024
Irv Smith (TE – CIN) | ECR TE21
At some point, the Irv Smith dream has to be let go. He landed in a perfect situation with little competition and was outplayed by 29-year-old Tanner Hudson, who had 27 career targets before joining the Bengals this year. Hudson finished as the TE25 in points per game, while Smith finished as the TE53.
Trey McBride (TE – ARI) | ECR TE24
The ECR was right to be worried about Zach Ertz being in Arizona. Trey McBride played second fiddle when the veteran was healthy, seeing a miserable 9.4% target share. Still, when Ertz landed on Injured Reserve (IR), McBride was unleashed, seeing a 27% target share for the rest of the season and finishing as the TE9 in points per game on an Arizona team everyone expected to be bad. McBride finished as a top-12 tight end in seven of the nine games without Ertz, managing this purely through volume with only two touchdowns. If McBride can find his way into the end zone more often in 2024, he could be the next breakout player.
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