Earlier this month, I gave you my predictions for the top 12 fantasy football quarterbacks this season, then the top 12 tight ends. Today, I’ll take a crack at the top 12 running backs. These are not my rankings. If you want my running back rankings, you can find them here. Rather, I am going to take some chances in order to attempt to nail each of the top 12. In order to gauge just how bold I will be, let’s take a look at the top 12 RBs and their preseason ADPs from 2016 and 2015.

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2016 RB1s

1. David Johnson (ADP #1)
2. Ezekiel Elliott (ADP #3)
3. LeSean McCoy (ADP #7)
4. Le’Veon Bell (ADP #4)
5. DeMarco Murray (ADP #10)
6. Devonta Freeman (ADP #6)
7. LeGarrette Blount (ADP #26)
8. Melvin Gordon (ADP #20)
9. Jordan Howard (ADP #53)
10. Mark Ingram (ADP #10)
11. Jay Ajayi (ADP #32)
12. Frank Gore (ADP #22)

2015 RB1s

1. Devonta Freeman (ADP #30)
2. Adrian Peterson (ADP #1)
3. Doug Martin (ADP #17)
4. DeAngelo Williams (ADP #40)
5. Todd Gurley (ADP #15)
6. Lamar Miller (ADP #9)
7. David Johnson (ADP #38)
8. Chris Ivory (ADP #20)
9. Matt Forte (ADP #5)
10. Danny Woodhead (ADP #34)
11. Latavius Murray (ADP #12)
12. Frank Gore (ADP #10)

Last season was a bit wild in that all six of the top performers were projected as RB1s. I’d bet a substantial amount of money that doesn’t happen this time around. More often, the final board looks more like 2015, where a handful of the top RBs were total surprises. Today, I’ll take my best stab at predicting how all the chips will fall.

Top 12 Fantasy Football RBs of 2017

RB #12: Melvin Gordon (LAC) : ADP #5
While Gordon may have finished as the 8th best running back last season, much of it was due to an unsustainable touchdown rate and the absence of Keenan Allen from the offense. Now that they return Allen, get a sophomore Hunter Henry and drafted Mike Williams, Gordon’s role will shrink. That plus the expected touchdown regression will drop him to where a workhorse with less than 4 yards per carry typically ends up.

RB #11: Samaje Perine (WAS) : ADP #42
While the Redskins haven’t given him the job quite yet, it is only a matter of time before he takes over for this high-powered offense. Perine is the best goal-line back on the roster and a far superior receiver to Rob Kelley. Once they hand him the keys, he should emerge as an every week starter and has the upside to surge up to an RB1 considering Washington should score in the neighborhood of 400 points again.

RB #10: Leonard Fournette (JAX) : ADP #11
As Mike Tagliere recently claimed, Fournette may be this generation’s version of Adrian Peterson, but it takes a full offensive unit to make a running back the best in football. Blake Bortles and this patchwork offensive line don’t qualify as a quality offense at this point. It is also worth noting that Chris Ivory could cut into some of his goal-line work. There is no question, however, that Fournette is one of the few bell-cow backs in the league this season, and that, if paired with health, gives him a very high floor.

RB #9: Wendell Smallwood (PHI) : ADP #59
The Eagles’ offensive line dealt with a number of substantial injuries last season, but now that they are healthy, we may be talking about the best group in football. The larger problem, of course, is Blount standing in his way, and although he finished as a top 10 back last season, he was among the least efficient. Smallwood and even Corey Clement have been outshining him all preseason and had Smallwood not sustained a minor injury, he might have just stolen the job already. He is breathing down LGB’s neck and could take over at the first sign of trouble. With this offensive line, the ceiling is plenty high.

RB #8: Kareem Hunt (KC) : ADP #20
While Spencer Ware was only projected as a 4th round talent, he would have likely been a full two rounds higher had Charcandrick West been his only backup. Hunt may be even more talented and walks into a phenomenal situation where he is the clear-cut top back in a run-heavy Andy Reid system. The ceiling is higher than even RB8, but it would take a healthy TD-rate plus all of the expected volume for him to achieve that ceiling.

RB #7: Adrian Peterson (NO) : ADP #28
Yes, Mark Ingram is still there and likely to get the majority of the third down work plus plenty of early down touches as well, but that isn’t to say AP’s ceiling is low. In fact, Ingram could have a quality season while AP leads the league in touchdowns and rushes 200 times. Last year, they had 17 rushing touchdowns, good for 6th in the league, and that was before the best goal-line back in football arrived. Let’s also not forget that he has rushed for at least 80 yards per game every year of his career.

RB #6: David Johnson (ARI) : ADP #1
It isn’t as though I expect an injury, but a decrease in volume, efficiency and touchdown rate are all likely. There is a magic number for running backs: Every time they cross 360 touches in a season, they see significant regression the following year. A body just can’t take that kind of beating whether you are Terrell Davis, Ricky Williams or even David Johnson. In fact, after Week 5, DJ rushed for just 3.6 yards per carry. It isn’t that I expect him to be bad, but a disappointment is likely considering the impossible standards he set last year.

RB #5: Ty Montgomery (GB): ADP #19
This one makes me especially nervous because if his run blocking isn’t up to snuff or his little frame gets dinged up, Jamaal Williams is waiting in the wings for the takeover. If neither of those negative scenarios happens, however, we are looking at a special talent in one of the best offenses in football. Montgomery’s juke rate and yards after contact were outrageously good last season and he was still learning the position. The ceiling is absurd, but the floor is a total bust.

RB #4: Mike Gillislee (NE) : ADP #27
He is finally back to practice so we can all breathe a sigh of relief. Over the past two seasons, the Bills’ then backup running led the NFL in yards per carry and was the single most efficient goal-line back in football. While he won’t amass 300 touches like a few of the guys on this list, he does have the benefit of going to a superior offense and one that runs the ball in the red zone and on the goal-line far more than any other team in football. If Blount could finish as the #7 RB in fantasy last season, I’m dying to see what the far-more talented Gillislee can accomplish.

RB #3: Devonta Freeman (ATL): ADP #4
Yes, Kyle Shannahan is gone, but that may impact Tevin Coleman quite a bit more than Freeman, as Steve Sarkisian is likely to utilize his superstar running back beyond what we saw in the split backfield situation the past two seasons. As you’ll remember, Devonta was the best running back in football just two years ago by a full point per game, and three points per game better than the #3 back. The ceiling is enormous and he may see quite a bit more than the 227 rushes we were treated to last season.

RB #2: Joe Mixon (CIN): ADP #18
The offensive line lost two of their best pieces, and technically Jeremy Hill is still the starter and apparent touchdown vulture with Gio Bernard threatening to steal touches on third downs, so this may seem extreme to you. If you’ve been watching pre-season football, however, you’ve seen that Joe Mixon is not just far and away the most talented goal-line back, third-down back and complete back on the Bengals, but also the most talented rookie in this year’s loaded class. He is a superstar waiting to happen and you’d better believe the Bengals will feed him touches if they want to win football games.

RB #1: Le’Veon Bell (PIT): ADP #2
Perhaps you missed it because Bell was lagging in the touchdown department or because David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott had incredible seasons, but Bell’s season was historic. If you prorate his 12 games to a full season, he would have surpassed 2,500 yards from scrimmage and the NFL single-season record. Of all the backs in football, Bell is due for the most touchdown regression, only in his case, it is positive. We should expect him to come close to that 2,500 yard mark this year if he can stay on the field, while his touchdowns jump from 9 to a number much closer to 20.

Notable exclusions

LeSean McCoy (BUF) – Missed time 5 of 7 years, Rex Ryan is gone

DeMarco Murray (TEN) – Faded deep into the season, could eventually split carries with Henry

Jay Ajayi (MIA) – His knees are the biggest injury concern of any back this year

Jordan Howard (CHI) – Terrible QB, no receiver core, brick hands, Tarik Cohen

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – As good as he may be, you don’t finish as an RB1 when missing 38% of the season

Todd Gurley (LAR) – Finished 27th in points per game last season at the position

Christian McCaffery (CAR) – Likely limited to under 200 carries

Thanks for reading. If you haven’t already, please check out the FantasyPros Football Podcast (below) that I co-host with Mike Tagliere. Good luck this season.

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