New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 44.0
Line: TB by 3.0
With how good the Giants defense is, there is no way that anyone projected them to be 0-3 as we head into Week 4. The season may already be over, but this game could be the nail in the coffin according to Vegas oddsmakers. That’s hard to see with how many injuries the Bucs are dealing with on the defensive side of the ball. They lost their top linebacker Lavonte David to an ankle sprain in Week 3, as well as defensive tackle Gerald McCoy who was wearing a walking boot after their Week 3 loss to the Vikings. They were already down top cornerback Brent Grimes and linebacker Kwon Alexander, so this could look like a B-squad defense against a Giants team with their backs against the wall.
QBs: It was looking like another putrid game for Eli Manning against the Eagles last week, until he picked it up in the second half and connected with both Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard for touchdowns. You watched Case Keenum carve up this injured Bucs defense for 369 yards and three touchdowns, which would make you wonder whether or not Manning is starter-worthy. I remain in the same position I’ve always been with Manning – when he’s on a hot-streak, play him. When he’s not, wait until he has two solid weeks before trusting him. We have not gotten to that point yet, so he’s just an option in 2QB leagues, despite the great matchup. Jameis Winston continues to have a gunslinger mentality and it causes so much frustration for his head coach. He needs to learn that sometimes you have to just pull the ball in and take a sack, rather than heaving a ball up in the air to a 50/50 situation. This is not a week to play Winston, as he will play a swarming Giants defense that’s held the combination of Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, and Carson Wentz to just 6.2 yards per attempt and four touchdowns through three weeks. 14 of the last 19 quarterbacks they have played have totaled 15.9 or less fantasy points, and just one has posted more than 17.9 points. He’s not even a contrarian option in DFS this week.
RBs: It’s a mess in the Giants backfield, but it’s only a matter of time before one of them produces a solid fantasy day and it could be against this banged up Bucs defense that may be missing its top defensive lineman and top two linebackers. The Giants gave Orleans Darkwa an extended look in Week 3, but he still played just 16 snaps to Paul Perkins‘ 35 snaps and did nothing with the touches he received to make us believe he’ll see extended time. You would prefer not to play any of them if possible, but Perkins is on the RB4 radar in what looks like a great matchup. Gerald McCoy is the big one to watch whether or not he plays, as they have really struggled without him in years past. The services of Shane Vereen shouldn’t be needed as much with all of the Giants pass catchers now healthy, so he’s just a desperation option in PPR leagues. After last week, there is no way you can put Jacquizz Rodgers in your lineups with any confidence. He split the snaps with Charles Sims right down the middle and toted the ball just five times for 15 yards. The Giants run defense is their biggest weakness, as evidenced by the Eagles racking up 171 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week. In fact, they have allowed at least 105 rushing yards in each of their three contests. Still, we have to consider that if Eli Manning struggles, the Bucs are going to run the ball an awful lot. They are also home favorites, which is typically a recipe for success, but I have my concerns. Consider Rodgers an RB3 for this contest. Sims isn’t going to do much, considering he played half the snaps last week, yet touched the ball just three times. He’s not worth consideration right now in fantasy leagues.
WRs: If you were here for The Primer last week, I said that Odell Beckham was my favorite wide receiver play of the week as he’d match-up against Jalen Mills. He didn’t disappoint and may be in for another big week against the Bucs if Brent Grimes is out once again with his shoulder injury. We didn’t hear much about his injury, but him being inactive would be a big boost for Beckham. You’ll still trot out Beckham as a WR1 even if Grimes does play, as he may be doing so at less than 100 percent. Sterling Shepard may be the wide receiver that everyone expected Brandon Marshall to be this season, as he’s out-targeted Marshall 22 to 20 through three weeks and has massively outproduced him. If Grimes plays, that would push Robert McClain back into the slot, which is good news for Shepard. On 11 targets in coverage this year, McClain has allowed eight catches for 87 yards and a touchdown. He should be looked at as a WR4 option who has upside for more if Manning gets hot. Marshall looks like the wide receiver we saw last year, as he’s caught just 50 percent of his targets, while all of the other wide receivers have hauled in 73 percent of their targets. He’s just a name right now who may score a touchdown from time-to-time, but he’s given us nothing to believe he’ll produce anything more than WR4/5 numbers. The Giants didn’t feel like Alshon Jeffery was shadow-worthy last week and kept Janoris Jenkins home at RCB. That is not going to be the case with Mike Evans. It’s another tough matchup just one week after seeing Xavier Rhodes in coverage. Winston has shown the willingness to target Evans no matter who is covering him, so he’s still starting on fantasy teams as a WR2, at worst. DeSean Jackson will see Eli Apple for a majority of his snaps, which is the most exploitable matchup in that Giants secondary. Though he played with a different quarterback, Jackson totaled 5/96/1 in the first game and then just 2/34/0 in the second game. Bottom line, Jackson can win this matchup and is a WR3 once again this week. Adam Humphries saw extended work last week with Rhodes on Evans, but his matchup with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a tough one. Avoid him in fantasy leagues.
TEs: It’s been apparent since Week 1 that Evan Engram was going to be a part of this offense and he sits tight as the No. 11 fantasy tight end through three weeks. With the missing cogs in the Bucs defense, Engram shouldn’t be asked to block as much, and they were a defense that allowed multiple 100-yard performances to tight ends last year. Engram has the looks of a high-end TE2 for this contest whose concern is that the wide receivers take over this game. Still, it’s hard not to like what we’ve seen thus far. It’s a massive timeshare at tight end for the Bucs, as O.J. Howard actually leads them in snaps at the position, but it’s Cameron Brate who’s running more routes. Brate has run 45 pass routes and seen seven targets, while Howard has run 30 pass routes and seen just four targets. This is a prime matchup for tight ends, so one of them is likely to hit TE1 value. You obviously want to bet on Brate to be the one, seeing the majority of targets, but it shouldn’t shock you to see both even more involved this week. The Giants have allowed a tight end touchdown in every game so far this season.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Total: 46.5
Line: DEN by 3.0
The last thing the Raiders needed after a rough Monday night performance was to travel back across the country to play on the road against the Broncos in Denver. That’s where we are though, and the Broncos are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bills in Week 3. The line of 46.5 suggests that there’ll be some scoring in this game, something that didn’t quite happen the last time these teams met (24-6), though Derek Carr was out for that Week 17 game. Going back to the game he played in Week 9, it was a 30-20 score where Latavius Murray scored three times. He’s gone and in comes Marshawn Lynch, though I wouldn’t expect a repeat of that in Week 4.
QBs: Before the season, my initial projections had Derek Carr as the No. 17 quarterback, which caused me to go back and see what I did wrong. As it turned out, I didn’t do anything wrong, because Carr wasn’t quite the elite quarterback everyone made him out to be. In fact, he reminded me a lot of pre-2016 Matt Ryan, where he was a really good in-game quarterback, but didn’t post flashy numbers outside of a few games. With that being said, the Broncos don’t have the same secondary that they did last year that allowed just 12 passing touchdowns all year. Instead, they’ve allowed seven passing scores already, and that is while playing two of those games at home. Carr isn’t off the QB2 radar like he would have been last year, but he’s most definitely not on the QB1 radar this week, as the Broncos still haven’t allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 244 yards since back in Week 10 of last year. Trevor Siemian came back down to earth in Week 3, which really should have been expected. The Raiders defense he’ll see in Week 4 is similar to the one he saw last year when he posted passing totals of 283 and 206 yards, while throwing two touchdowns in each contest. He’s a solid QB2 this week against the defense who’s allowed at least 17.7 fantasy points to each quarterback through three weeks.
RBs: It hasn’t been the last two weeks that I would’ve expected for Marshawn Lynch, who leaves two matchups with the Jets and Redskins with just 18 carries for 63 yards and one touchdown. The Raiders said they wanted to limit his carries, but it cannot come at the expense of them losing games. With that being said, the Broncos run defense has now completely shut down two of the league’s premier run games in the Bills and Cowboys. LeSean McCoy and Ezekiel Elliott combined for just 29 yards on 23 carries. No, that’s not a typo. They also held Melvin Gordon scoreless back in Week 1, which is a feat in itself. Considering the Raiders success against them last year on the ground, you don’t want to write-off Lynch, but he’s just a low-end RB2/flex option this week. Needless to say, you don’t want to trust any other Raiders running back in this game. For whatever reason, the Broncos decided to cool down the red-hot C.J. Anderson last week and give him just eight carries after he totaled 45 of them in the first two games. While yes, Jamaal Charles looked solid, why take away Anderson’s momentum? He played his usual amount of snaps, so don’t assume that this is going to be a thing to worry about going forward, especially considering they lost that game. Anderson doesn’t have the greatest matchup this week, as the Raiders have now held opposing running backs to just 3.86 yards per carry through three weeks without a single rushing touchdown. That’s a big difference from last year when they allowed 13 rushing scores, so it could be the small sample size, as there weren’t any drastic changes to this linebacking corps, though rookie defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes has been a cog in the middle of the field. Anderson should be played as an RB2, while Charles goes back to his RB4 role against the Raiders. Keep in mind that Charles still hasn’t played more than 21 snaps in a game this season.
WRs: It’s officially the time for Amari Cooper supporters to crawl in the fetal position and cry. He’s been bad this year, but not in the way that Terrelle Pryor is bad. Cooper is so frustrating because he’s getting open seemingly at will, but he’s now dropped a league-leading six passes. He’s just 23 years old, so don’t give up on him or anything, but it’s been frustrating for sure. The Broncos are a tough matchup, but not one that you should run from. Cooper is one of the six wide receivers who was able to score against the Broncos last year and he actually lines up on Bradley Roby’s side more than he does on Aqib Talib’s side. The Broncos allowed Dez Bryant to post a seven-catch, 59-yard, one-touchdown performance against them just two weeks ago and have actually already allowed four wide receiver touchdowns on the year after just seven the entire 2016 season. Maybe the loss of T.J. Ward looms large? Cooper should be in lineups as a WR2 this week and an interesting contrarian play in DFS tournaments. Michael Crabtree didn’t fare as well against the Broncos last year, totaling just seven catches for 84 yards in the two contests combined. We know that he’s a red zone favorite, so don’t bench him, but he’s just a WR3 here. Seth Roberts will see Chris Harris Jr., which is a no-go for almost any wide receiver, including Roberts. As it typically goes with the Broncos, Demaryius Thomas was the safer play with the higher-floor, but Emmanuel Sanders is going to present the higher ceiling because he gets a lot of red zone looks. He’s now got four red zone targets on the season, while Thomas has just one. The matchup against the Raiders wasn’t kind to either of them last season, but Siemian is playing much more confident this time around. Despite the limited talent in the Raiders secondary, they’ve not allowed a single wide receiver to post more than 71 yards this year, so consider Thomas a low-end WR2, while Sanders is in that same range, but with higher upside. Bennie Fowler is getting more work than anyone anticipated and is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with four of them. He’s touchdown-or-bust and not playable, but he might just be the Broncos version of Seth Roberts.
TEs: Did you know that Jared Cook officially has more targets than Michael Crabtree does on the season? His 17 targets actually rank No. 11 at tight end and he’s produced almost in line with his targets, ranking 12th in tight end scoring. The Broncos have allowed quarterbacks a 129.0 rating when targeting tight ends this season, one of the best marks on the season. Keep in mind that they didn’t play Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce, either. Cook is in the high-end TE2 conversation against the Broncos. As we’ve talked about every week, the Broncos tight end job isn’t set in stone with one player. It’s a timeshare between Virgil Green and A.J. Derby, and it’s not getting much clearer as the weeks go on. Green played 65 percent of the snaps in Week 1, but has since gone down to just 53 percent of the snaps, while running just 14 pass routes in Week 3. Derby has been around the 40 percent mark, but has run routes on almost all of his snaps (25 of 29 to be exact). With that being said, Green still has the target edge. This is a timeshare to avoid if at all possible, even though the Raiders are exploitable against tight ends.
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks
Total: 41.5
Line: SEA by 13.0
After being labeled as the underdog at home against the Browns, the Colts offense showed up in Week 3 and produced 31 points. Granted, it was against the Browns, but this is a team who didn’t look like they could score two touchdowns in a single game. With that being said, it’s quite a different story heading into Seattle to play a Seahawks team that has started 1-2 and need a confidence builder. They’ve lost games against what should be two playoff teams in Green Bay and Tennessee. Looking at the line of 13 points, it’s clear that Vegas oddsmakers are counting on this game as a blowout.
QBs: Let’s be clear about this, Week 3 is going to go down as the best game of Jacoby Brissett‘s career. He’s not going to come into Seattle and throw for 10.8 yards per attempt and it’ll also be hard for him to rush for any more than maybe 20-25 yards. The Seahawks obviously practice with mobile quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Trevone Boykin, so maybe that’s helped them hold 18 of the last 19 quarterbacks they’ve played to 27 rushing yards or less. Boykin should not be on fantasy radars. Wilson, on the other hand, is coming off his best game in a long time against the Titans. While it wasn’t the best of secondaries (actually one of the worst), Wilson needed a game like that for his confidence. The thought that he may be without Doug Baldwin does hurt, but as of now, they’re saying he looks like he will play. Consider Wilson a QB1 against the Colts, and while some may question his upside in what could be a blowout, here is the stat I have for you: Wilson has played in nine games in which he was a 13 (or more) point favorite. In those games, he has averaged 225 yards and 1.9 touchdowns, compared to 229 yards and 1.6 touchdowns in all other games.
RBs: It was the best possible scenario for Frank Gore against the Browns last week – he was at home, the Colts were winning throughout the entire game, it was the Browns, and he got 25 carries. He ended the game with 57 yards and a touchdown. The dream is over, guys. Even in a matchup against the Seahawks who’ve been gashed by Carlos Hyde and DeMarco Murray the last two weeks, you can’t play Gore as anything more than a boring, low-upside RB3. He’s not even being used in the passing game, which further cements your decision to sit Gore. If Marlon Mack were healthy, this would be a game where he could see a lot of action and a great punt-play in DFS, but his shoulder injury kept him out of Week 3, so you can’t trust him to have a big role just a week later. I said last week that Chris Carson would disappoint against the Titans, and he did on the ground totaling just 34 yards on 11 carries, but salvaged his fantasy day with a touchdown reception. This week is a different story. Carson should be on your radar as an RB2 with RB1 upside written all over him. The Seahawks are committed to him, as evidenced by his 41 snaps against the Titans, while Thomas Rawls played exactly one snap. The Colts have played better than anyone has expected against the run, but they’ve also played against the Browns and the David Johnson-less Cardinals the last two weeks. In a home game where the Seahawks are favored by almost two touchdowns and may be without Doug Baldwin, you want Carson in your lineup. C.J. Prosise will be involved in games where they will be back and forth, like last week, but his services shouldn’t be needed in this game.
WRs: Remember last week when I said that T.Y. Hilton could be trusted against the Browns? I want you to do the exact opposite this week. In all seriousness, Hilton is nothing more than a WR4 against a Seahawks secondary that has yet to allow a wide receiver more than 87 yards this year. We all know that Hilton isn’t the scoring type, so he needs to continually beat the defensive back in coverage, something that’s unlikely to happen with Earl Thomas watching over things over the top. Donte Moncrief has been waiver wire material without Andrew Luck and there’s no reason to play him now. If he’s on waivers in your league right now, add him in anticipation of Luck’s return. He’ll be a WR3 nearly every week. If Doug Baldwin does play, it’ll be hard to keep him out of your lineups, as the matchup is extremely good. With that being said, he comes with some risk. The Seahawks should be able to win this game in their sleep, making you wonder if they could put him on the field for the first half and then rest him once ahead. He should be considered a high-risk WR2, despite the good matchup. The Colts should be getting Vontae Davis back this week, which limits the matchup upside for guys like Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett, but he may be playing with some rust, as he’s been out for over a month. If Davis plays, it’s fair to say that Lockett may be the better option because he’s moved around the offense a lot more. Richardson plays roughly 70 percent of his snaps at LWR, which is where Davis typically lines up. If Baldwin were to sit this game out, it appeared that Tanner McEvoy and Amara Darboh shared the role of the No. 3 wide receiver. Because of that, they’re off the fantasy radar.
TEs: It was disappointing to see Jack Doyle struggle as much as he did last week in a prime matchup against the Browns. Because of that, he’s unplayable until Andrew Luck comes back. It cannot be understated how good of a matchup it was last week. I’m sorry, sulking is over. The Seahawks are a bad matchup regardless, allowing just one tight end to eclipse 61 yards since the start of last year. And opposite of Doyle, it was Jimmy Graham who had his best performance of the year while playing through an ankle injury. He’s not completely off the hook here, but this was a matchup to target for tight ends last year. They allowed the second-most yards per target to tight ends (8.9) last year and have only seen 14 tight end targets this year against the Rams, Cardinals, and Browns. It’s likely that Graham finishes as a TE1 this week and one that should see a target bump if Baldwin sits.
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 49.5
Line: KC by 6.5
A week after pouncing the Raiders on primetime television, the Redskins will head out to Arrowhead stadium, a place teams have had trouble scoring against the Chiefs. They ranked as the No. 5 defense at home last year, allowing just 16.0 points per game, but the losses of Eric Berry and Steven Nelson aren’t small. The Redskins are big underdogs, so maybe there is something to the Chiefs at home. With the way the Chiefs are playing right now, it’s hard for anyone to stop them, as Alex Smith is taking shots downfield and Kareem Hunt is playing out of his mind. This game oddly has one of the highest totals of the week, which suggests it should be high scoring, but how do we get there?
QBs: Kirk Cousins hasn’t been exactly good this season. His overall numbers look good, but his one really good game was last Sunday night. His receivers (particularly Chris Thompson) have been creating yards after the catch at an unsustainable rate, as just 37.2 percent of his yards have come in the air, which is the lowest in the league, according to PFF. The Chiefs allowed exactly zero passing touchdowns to the combination of Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, but did allow four rushing touchdowns, something that doesn’t happen with the Redskins all that often. Some will attack this game because of the high total, but I can’t see it. Cousins is just a mediocre QB2 in this tough road matchup. Alex Smith remains near the top of fantasy leaderboards after Week 3, behind only Tom Brady. There isn’t another quarterback inside the top 10 who has totaled less than 100 pass attempts. Smith has 84 of them. In short, his efficiency cannot be sustained. The Redskins had been sliced up by Carson Wentz and Jared Goff before completely shutting down Derek Carr last week, so it’s tough to figure this defense out, though I remain in the camp who thinks this is a matchup to target in most weeks. Without the Redskins putting up a lot of points, it will be difficult to trust Smith as anything more than a QB2 this week. He’s a solid play in 2QB leagues, but I’m guessing you can do better in standard leagues this week.
RBs: Head coach Jay Gruden made it clear on Tuesday that Rob Kelley will return to the starting role this week when they play the Chiefs. It’s a bit early to tell, but it seems as if the Chiefs miss Dontari Poe more than they thought, as Bennie Logan hasn’t quite filled the void (no pun intended) allowing four rushing touchdowns through three games, when they allowed just nine all of last season. Still, teams are averaging almost 23 carries per game against the Chiefs, which means Kelley is at the very least a RB3 volume play. The high total suggests that he should have scoring opportunities, so don’t bench him for someone like Frank Gore or anything. We have no clue what is going on with Chris Thompson who now has four touchdowns on just 27 touches this season. When you are averaging just nine touches per game, you’re bound to let down owners who trust you as anything more than a flex option. Throughout the 2016 season, the Chiefs allowed just 528 yards through the air to running backs, which was the fifth-lowest number in the league. Thompson needs to be in lineups with how hot he is, but be prepared for a letdown soon, and likely this week. Samaje Perine blew his opportunity and didn’t appear to be anything more than a plodding two-down back against the Raiders. He’s strictly a handcuff at this point. Back when Spencer Ware was announced to be out for the season, I immediately said that Kareem Hunt was a third-round pick in every format and that I’d be willing to snag him late second depending on who was available. It appears I was too low. He’s taken the league by storm, and has 15.7 more points than the next closest running back in standard leagues and he’s only getting more work, according to Andy Reid. Before shutting down the Raiders run game, who totaled a miniscule nine carries, the Redskins allowed the Eagles and Rams backfields to combine for 41.3 standard points and 52.3 PPR points. To this point, Hunt has accounted for 89 percent of the fantasy production for Chiefs running backs. He’s an elite RB1 and my No. 3 running back for the rest of the season.
WRs: If you were to ask people the fantasy pick they regret the most after three weeks, Terrelle Pryor would be atop the list. It was impossible not to get caught up in the hype this preseason as the Redskins were running out of options for the targets to go. He’s looked like a guy who has never played the wide receiver position. He’s also 28 years old, means a decline in his ridiculous size/speed combo is just around the corner. He’s just an upside WR4 against the Chiefs, even though his matchup is a plus one, as he will only see top Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters about 25 percent of the time, while matching up with Terrance Mitchell and Phillip Gaines the rest of the time. The combination of those two has already allowed 438 yards in coverage on 47 targets, though there’s been just one touchdown allowed. This game’s over/under has me puzzled, but intrigued with someone like Pryor. If he can have just one game like the player everyone expected, he would crush in DFS at low ownership. If you want to play him, do it in DFS for sure. Josh Doctson is the best wide receiver on this team, but he’s still working his way back into a full-time role. He played a season-high 36 snaps against the Raiders last week, but isn’t playable in fantasy leagues just yet. He’ll also see the majority of Peters. Jamison Crowder is now apparently fully healthy, but he’s also found himself inside the dog house because of two lost fumbles in the first three games. His matchup is a solid one and good enough to consider him as a solid WR3 in PPR formats, while he isn’t quite as appealing in standard leagues. Tyreek Hill bombed in a great matchup against the Eagles two weeks ago, but got back on track against the Chargers last week with 90 total yards and a touchdown. The Redskins haven’t used Josh Norman in shadow coverage, so there’s no reason to shy away from Hill as a WR2 in this matchup. Even if Norman did cover him, Hill’s world class speed is unmatched in man coverage. It’d be wise to avoid the other Chiefs wide receivers in this game.
TEs: If you own Jordan Reed, you put this upon yourself when you drafted him. After looking at a Sunday night game last week where he was supposed to play, we’re now looking at a Monday night game with less options to swap him out with. If you own Reed, Vernon Davis is a must-own. After losing Eric Berry for the season, the Chiefs promptly allowed Zach Ertz to go for five catches and 97 yards. Keep in mind they allowed just one tight end to score more than 11.5 PPR points last year, and that was Antonio Gates in Week 17. Reed hasn’t been particularly effective when on the field this year and it’s now gotten to the point where they may consider shutting him down with all of his injuries. Consider him a risky TE1 in this game. If he sits, Davis becomes a borderline TE1 out of necessity. This offense needs pass-catchers with Pryor struggling. Travis Kelce has now finished with four or less standard points in two of three games, which doesn’t feel great for a guy you spent a third or fourth round pick on. Rejoice, though, because he’s an elite TE1 in this matchup against the Redskins. On the season, they’ve already allowed a league-high 250 yards to the position on just 22 targets. Their linebackers and safeties are no match for Kelce.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Total: 45.5
Line: GB by 7.5
Some may see this game as one that will be competitive after we just saw the Bears beat the Steelers and the Packers nearly lose to the Bengals, but make no mistake about it, this should not be a close game. The Bears have won four games since the start of the 2016 season and all of them have come at home. On the road, they’ve been a different team, having lost their last nine road games by a count of 254-124. The Packers may not be at full strength, as they were without their top defensive lineman Mike Daniels last week, as well as slot receiver Randall Cobb and left tackle David Bakhtiari. The Bears aren’t exactly the healthiest of teams, either, as guard Josh Sitton was forced to miss last week, and the Bears are missing linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Nick Kwiatkowski. Divisional games are often closer than most think, but this is one where it’s a perfect storm for the Packers to pounce the Bears at home.
QBs: It’s safe to say that Mike Glennon bought himself another week as the Bears starter, which brings pleasure to my ears. If you know me, you know that I don’t want Mitch Trubisky to take the field this year. The Packers are typically a defense to target with streamers, but not with Glennon. The Bears have asked him to do less and less, but he’ll be forced to push the ball downfield in this game. Oddly enough, the Packers have still yet to allow a quarterback to score more than 16 fantasy points and they’ve played Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, and Andy Dalton. The reason is because those quarterbacks averaged just 27 pass attempts per game. Glennon will have more than that, but not enough for me to trust him as a streamer. He’s a low-end option in 2QB leagues, though. Aaron Rodgers can and should be played in all formats. The concern about him is the game-script, but the Packers are at home in a divisional game, so I wouldn’t worry much about that. The last time Rodgers played the Bears while at home, he threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns. The downside, if any, is that he may be playing without both of his starting offensive tackles. If the Bears were a team with a great pass-rush, I’d worry, but they aren’t. You don’t need me to tell you to start him.
RBs: It was an amazing performance by Jordan Howard last week, but one that may have done more harm than good to his shoulder. He had to leave the game twice to work with the trainers and now will be playing on a short week. The Packers have seen their opponents escalating their carries each week, from 15 in the first game, to 25 and 28 carries the last two weeks. If they are missing Mike Daniels again this week, upgrade the entire Bears offense, but it seems like he’s going to play. As of now, there are serious game-script concerns for Howard, which is why he saw just nine carries in Week 2 in the blowout against the Bucs. Consider him a risky RB2 if Daniels plays, but a solid RB2 if he’s out again. Meanwhile, Tarik Cohen is the real deal. He has been impressive from the first time he took the field in the preseason, and should be the No. 9 running back instead of the No. 13 running back that he is. That’s because of his game-winning touchdown where they ruled him out of bounds (he wasn’t). Treat him the way you treat Christian McCaffrey, a low-end RB2 who has a role regardless of Howard’s status. This matchup is no different, though he’s lost some upside with Benny Cunningham returning to the lineup (he gets some third-down work). If the Packers continue to use Ty Montgomery on 90 percent of their snaps, he isn’t going to last. He’s played 32 snaps more than the next closest running back and has already had to pull himself out of two games because he got nicked up. It’s also hindering his performance, as he’s averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and not breaking tackles the way he did last year. It’s great from a fantasy perspective that he’s playing so many snaps, but it may help his efficiency to share some snaps with Jamaal Williams on early downs. Still, Montgomery is a locked in RB1 against a Bears defense who has allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their last six games, including multiple rushing touchdowns in two of them. It’s also worth noting that Montgomery’s best games last year came against the Bears. Williams is someone who needs to be owned in all fantasy leagues as a potential RB1 if Montgomery were to miss time, but can’t be played until we see him play more than the seven snaps per game he’s seeing.
WRs: Did you know how little the Bears wide receivers were targeted last week? They combined for just four targets (Markus Wheaton 2, Deonte Thompson 2) and one catch for nine yards against the Steelers. That’ll change versus the Packers, though it’s hard to trust any of them. Wheaton has been bad the last two years, Thompson is getting the majority of snaps but is not uber-talented, and Kendall Wright is coming off a zero-target game. Still, there is bound to be some production against a Packers defense that has already allowed two 100-yard receivers through three games, though they were Julio Jones and A.J. Green. It seems like starting slot cornerback Quinten Rollins has been benched for rookie Kevin King last week, but that didn’t really work out, so it’d be interesting to see who plays this week. I wouldn’t trust any of them in season-long, but if forced to pick one in DFS, I suppose it’d be Wheaton, who is their new toy. It’s clear that Jordy Nelson is good to go, eh? He’s now scored three times on just 17 targets this year, which will even out over time, but it’s good to see him get over that quad injury so quickly. The Bears don’t have a shadow cornerback, so Nelson will see a mix of Marcus Cooper, Kyle Fuller, and Bryce Callahan in coverage. With Randall Cobb out last week, Nelson stuck to the perimeter on 76 percent of his snaps, with Geronimo Allison playing the slot the majority of the time. Callahan may just be the Bears best cornerback and he stays in the slot, so this is a good thing for Nelson and Davante Adams. Against a similar Bears defense last year, Nelson posted lines of 1/9/0 and 7/124/0, with the better line coming in Chicago. While one of those was his worst game of the season, Nelson is still a top-eight wide receiver every single week. This may be a matchup that benefits Adams, as he was flip-flopped with Nelson last year, totaling 13/132/2 at home against the Bears and just 2/25/0 in Chicago. Either one of them can go off and it’s usually Nelson, but Adams is always in play as a solid WR2 who presents top-five upside. It is fair to say that it helps both of them that Bears starting safety Quinton Demps broke his arm versus the Steelers last week and will miss this game. Cobb has the toughest matchup of the trio, so he’s just a low-end WR3 in a week where they don’t really need to push him.
TEs: It was frustrating to see one of my sleeper tight ends last week, Zach Miller, lose the touchdown to rookie Adam Shaheen, who the Bears have said they’d like to get more involved. The snaps are being divided by both of them (Miller – 32, Shaheen – 15), with the majority to going to Dion Sims (51 snaps). With that being said, it’s a situation to avoid where possible. On top of that, the Packers have held the combination of Jimmy Graham, Austin Hooper, and Tyler Kroft to just eight catches for 43 yards and no touchdowns in their three games this year. It’s very evident that Martellus Bennett and Aaron Rodgers just aren’t on the same page quite yet, but that’ll come soon. Bennett has seen 21 targets in the three games, which ranks third among tight ends. With a pace of 112 targets, Bennett is going to explode at some point. There have been just two tight ends over the last five years who have seen more than 100 targets and outside the top-12 producers at tight end. Those tight ends were Dennis Pitta and Brandon Pettigrew, a conversation that Bennett doesn’t exactly belong in. With the loss of Jerrell Freeman and now Demps, it’ll be interesting to see how the Bears contain tight ends. Continue trotting Bennett out there as a TE1 and live with the growing pains of his connection with Rodgers.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.