We yell, laugh, fight, scream, clench our fists, and heck, even cry sometimes. Fantasy football can make a man do some strange things, especially when he’s around others who are in his fantasy league. Why? Because all of us have too high of expectations, it’s really that simple.
If you own Keenan Allen in your fantasy league, tell me you’re not disappointed in his performance to this point. Did you know that he’s the No. 14 wide receiver in PPR formats? After starting the year as a complete and utter bust, Amari Cooper exploded for 210 yards and two touchdowns. There are just 37 wide receivers who have more than 210 yards and two touchdowns for the entire season. Cooper is now a top-24 wide receiver on the year.
It’s clear that the fantasy scene is missing consistent fantasy scorers, so if you’re lucky enough to have guys like Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, A.J. Green, and Le’Veon Bell, don’t let them go. Each week we go through and try to predict the future and the NFL says, “You just wait a minute. We’re going to make this more difficult than ever.” While it’s been tough, we are getting more and more information to analyze every single week, which should essentially make life a little bit easier.
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If this is your first time reading The Primer, I want to give you an idea as to what you should expect. Knowledge, facts, stats, numbers… lots of numbers. The idea is to give you so much knowledge that you’ll feel better than ever when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button. The Primer will be here for you every single week of the NFL season, where we’ll dive into every game, talking about every fantasy relevant player. Once done reading it each week, you should have a better idea as to how the game should go, as well as an idea as to who you should be playing in season-long and who to target in DFS. All games are in order of the time they are taking place, with the Thursday game first and Monday night game last.
*Keep in mind that the game lines and totals may change as the games approach. All of my up-to-date rankings can be found right here.
Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (in London)
Total: 37.5
Line: MIN by 8.0
We’ve seen some pretty big blowouts in London this year and most recently it was the Cardinals getting blown-out 33-0 by the Rams. If this game were to be a blowout, it’s apparent who the oddsmakers think it would be. The Browns have now benched DeShone Kizer two times, which seemed like it was going to be impossible for him to get the starting job back, but Hue Jackson has said he will get the nod for the Browns this week, though against the Vikings defense, it’s not really a prize. He’ll be without his starting left tackle Joe Thomas, who is a perennial Pro Bowler. Playing against an elite defense without your starting left tackle is going to cause issues for anyone. The Vikings remain hopeful to get Stefon Diggs back this week, though it’s not guaranteed.
QBs: Case Keenum has averaged 190.6 passing yards, 0.4 touchdowns, 0.4 interceptions, and 9.3 fantasy points per game outside of the one game against the Bucs when they were missing half of their first-team defense. He offers essentially nothing with his legs, either, making him a quarterback hard to get excited about. The Browns present a beautiful matchup, regardless of what Marcus Mariota did (or didn’t do) last week. They’ve actually defended the run very well (just 2.95 yards per carry), meaning the Vikings will have to move the ball via the air. Don’t forget the Browns have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 27 of their last 33 games. Keenum can be considered a low-end QB2 this week who offers a solid floor. Let’s be honest here, you aren’t going to use DeShone Kizer if you can help it. The Vikings have held each of the last three quarterbacks they’ve played to 186 yards or less. Even if they had an “off” game, the Browns don’t have the pieces to take advantage of that.
RBs: You were warned last week that the Vikings backfield was more of a timeshare than most realized. Latavius Murray isn’t going to turn heads or anything, but knowing that he averaged 15 touches per game over the previous two weeks, he couldn’t simply be forgotten about. With that being said, don’t play Murray this week and expect results similar to those last week. The Browns have allowed less than three yards per carry on the season and are coming off a game in which they held the Titans duo (DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry) to just 72 yards on 31 carries. The Browns haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown since back in Week 3, making Murray just a desperation RB3/flex play. Jerick McKinnon should have room to shine in this matchup because of what the Browns weakness is – pass-catching running backs. There’ve already been three running backs to accumulate 35 or more receiving yards against them, including two touchdowns to pass-catchers Javorius Allen and Giovani Bernard. We know McKinnon will see anywhere from 12-15 carries, but his receptions should be valuable in this game. He’s in the low-end RB2/high-end RB3 conversation, especially in PPR formats. You have to wonder what Duke Johnson did to the Browns to not see more touches than Isaiah Crowell, who continues to plod along. Crowell has now carried the ball 91 times for 287 yards (3.2 YPC) without a single touchdown, yet he’s totaled 45 carries in the last three weeks, while Johnson has totaled 143 yards on 28 carries (5.1 YPC) with two touchdowns on the season, and has just 18 carries over the last three weeks. Crowell is really going to struggle against a team that’s yet to allow an opposing team to run for more than 3.63 yards per carry. He’s one of the rare situations where you’re benching a player who is guaranteed at least 15 touches per game. He’s not the worst bye week replacement because of the floor he offers, but man, it feels bad putting him in your lineup. Johnson is nothing more than a RB3 in fantasy who needs to remain extremely efficient with his limited touches. He’s still yet to see more than seven carries in a game, though he did see a season-high 13 touches last week. The Vikings are coming off a game in which they allowed Javorius Allen to record eight catches for 49 yards, so it’s doable. I’d rather play Johnson’s upside than Crowell’s safety.
WRs: With Stefon Diggs out last week, Adam Thielen found it difficult to operate, as he finished with just five catches for 41 yards. It is likely better for Thielen if Diggs is on the field, even if he isn’t 100 percent. Under Keenum, Thielen has seen at least eight targets in each of the last five games, making him a weekly WR3 at worst. The Browns just shut down Eric Decker last week, though he’s been a bag of mixed emotions this year. Considering they’ll have issues running the ball, Thielen should see a solid number of targets once again, though his matchup in the slot against Briean Boddy-Calhoun isn’t the best one on the field. I’d still play him as a low-end WR2 in this game. If Diggs plays, I’d worry about him performing as anything better than a WR3 in fantasy. That’s because he’s been particularly bad when he’s listed on the injury report, which he will be. On top of that, he and Keenum haven’t seemed to establish any rapport, totaling just eight catches for 129 scoreless yards in the three games outside of the Buccaneers game. The field in London is also known to be an extremely messy one and could be the reason the Vikings are looking for in order to shut him down for this game. Not to mention, they have their bye next week, which could allow Diggs to be near full-health by their Week 10 game. He’s just a risky WR4 if he takes the field. With him off the field for the last two weeks, the snaps have gone like this: Thielen 137, Laquon Treadwell 99, Jarius Wright 69, Michael Floyd 38. If you’re looking for someone as a punt-play in tournaments, Treadwell would be the one, as he’s got first-round talent and has totaled seven targets for 6/79/0 over the last two weeks. The Browns don’t have a wide receiver trustworthy enough to play in almost any format. Seriously, I play in multiple leagues where we start anywhere from 5-8 wide receivers and I wouldn’t want to trust any of them in this game. Ricardo Louis was picking up his game for a few weeks, but has totaled just 46 yards over the last two weeks combined. There is no other Browns receiver who’s totaled more than 136 yards on the year.
TEs: With Diggs out, Kyle Rudolph got the targets we were looking for against the Ravens, though his seven targets weren’t enough to do much damage on the stat sheet (5/43/0). It is, however, very encouraging to see him now have 25 targets over the last three weeks. That’s likely due to Diggs missing the last two games and a majority of the Week 5 game against the Bears. Considering we don’t see Diggs contributing much this week, Rudolph should be viewed as a must-start against the Browns. In fact, it wouldn’t matter if Diggs played or not, he’d still be considered an elite TE1 option against the Browns. It’s now been two weeks since they allowed a tight end touchdown, but they’ve still allowed five of seven starting tight ends to finish as top-10 tight ends against them, including three top-five finishes. The Browns don’t have a clear-cut situation at tight end, as David Njoku and Seth DeValve are not only sharing snaps, but sharing targets. Njoku has 25 targets on the year while DeValve has 29 of them. It would be nice to know which tight end was supposed to see the bigger role this week, as teams have had some success targeting tight ends against the Vikings. Still, when you’re looking at tight ends who averaged less than five targets per game, you’re stuck with a touchdown-or-bust. Because of that, Njoku would be the preferred option, though he’s nothing more than a TE2.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Total: 49.5
Line: NE by 7.0
After losing four straight games to start the season, the Chargers have now won three straight despite not having a home crowd in any of those games. I say that because if you were to watch or listen to any of the “home” games they’re playing, there are more opposing fans than there are Chargers fans, which is quite sad. They will be in Foxborough this week, so there’s no need to worry about that in this game. The Patriots are coming off a big home win last week against the Falcons and have now won three straight as well. Oddsmakers view this game as one the Patriots should stomp and it’s hard to argue with them. It’ll be likely that the Patriots get back Stephon Gilmore back from his concussion this week, though the Patriots have played a lot better defense the last few weeks, allowing 14 points to the Bucs, 17 points to the Jets, and 7 points to the Falcons.
QBs: To this point in the season, Philip Rivers has played competent football outside of two games against divisional opponents. For whatever reason, he struggles against the Chiefs every single year, and removing just that game, Rivers has averaged 263.2 passing yards, 2.0 touchdowns, and just 0.3 interceptions. The fact that the Patriots have struggled to generate a pass-rush bodes well for the immobile Rivers, though his offensive line has blocked a lot better than anticipated. Matt Ryan was the first quarterback this year who failed to throw for at least 300 yards against the Patriots last week, and was also the first quarterback to score less than 18.5 fantasy points, though his 17.0 points was still good enough to get into QB1 territory. Knowing that Rivers has totaled the fourth-most pass attempts (36.6/game) in the league is great because the Patriots have still yet to hold a quarterback to less than 7.1 yards per attempt. Rivers is one of the safer QB1’s to play this week and one that can be considered for cash-games. Tom Brady is always being played in season-long leagues, but is he worth it in DFS this week? The Chargers have been pretty awful against the run, so it really comes down to game-planning. No team has thrown the ball more than 36 times against the Chargers, limiting massive upside. On the year, they have faced 214 pass attempts, compared to 175 rushing attempts (by running backs alone). The lack of attempts has also limited the touchdown upside, as no quarterback has thrown more than two touchdowns against them. With that being said, Brady may be slightly lower owned, making him a solid tournament option in a game with one of the highest projected totals.
RBs: Just one week after playing against the Broncos stone-wall run defense, Melvin Gordon will match-up with a Patriots defense that has kind of been underrated by a lot of fantasy analysts. It’s not to say they’re an elite run-stopping unit, but it’s more about the results. Just one running back has been able to accumulate more than 89 yards on the ground against them over the last two years (span of 23 games) and that was Kareem Hunt, a running back the Patriots had no game-tape on. Outside of Hunt, the Patriots have allowed just one rushing touchdown and held every running back they’ve played to 16 or fewer PPR points, including Devonta Freeman, Doug Martin, and Lamar Miller. Gordon has been getting so much work in the passing game, he’s locked into the RB1 conversation, as he can score two touchdowns in any game, but his overall upside might not be what you think it is against the Patriots. We have to consider Dion Lewis as the starting running back for the Patriots at this point, as he leads the team in snaps over the last two weeks. Here are the snap counts over the last two weeks: Lewis 55, James White 52, Mike Gillislee 26, Rex Burkhead 13. Lewis has witnessed his carry numbers go up in each of the last five games, topping out at 13 of them against the Falcons. The odd part is that he’s not being used in the passing game so much, an area he excelled in years past. Because of his limited usage in the passing game, he’s stuck in the RB3 territory. The Chargers have been the league’s worst run defense through seven weeks, allowing a massive 5.23 yards per carry, though they’ve allowed just four rushing touchdowns. In fact, they’ve allowed just four touchdowns to running backs as a whole, as they’ve allowed zero receiving touchdowns to them, which is concerning for someone like White who has essentially been a slot wide receiver this year, totaling 27 carries along with his 38 receptions. It’s hard to remove him from the RB3 conversation as well, simply because his floor has been there, catching at least four passes in five of the last six games. Gillislee found himself in the doghouse after a fumble in Week 6 and then tied Burkhead for a team-low 13 snaps at the running back position. Both totaled 31 yards on the ground, which Burkhead chipped in with a catch. Neither of them are recommended plays in season-long leagues, but would it shock you if Bill Belichick threw Gillislee into the game for goal-line situations? The answer is no, meaning he’s still in play for tournaments with little ownership.
WRs: Would you believe me if I told you that Keenan Allen was the No. 14 wide receiver in PPR leagues? It would’ve shocked me before I looked after the Week 7 games. He ranks No. 2 in targets (behind only Antonio Brown), No. 8 in yards, but he’s only scored one touchdown on all those targets. He’s going to start scoring sooner or later and why not against a Patriots team that has already allowed 1,400 yards to the wide receiver position, which is the second-most behind only the Colts. The Patriots have struggled with slot wide receivers this year, though you have to wonder if Allen will see additional attention. It’s difficult to do with slot receivers, simply because the sideline doesn’t act as an additional defender, and dedicating two defenders to a position that often sees shorter targets over the middle of the field. Allen remains in the strong WR2 conversation for this game. Tyrell Williams hasn’t played very well this season and it’s starting to show in his role, as he’s totaled just six targets in the last three games combined for just 5/60/0. He’s nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR4 who’ll start losing more snaps to rookie Mike Williams before long, though this matchup should produce over 300 yards passing out of Rivers. Travis Benjamin has outproduced him all year, but even he has seen just five targets in the last three weeks, making him a non-attractive option. The rookie Williams has played just 25 snaps the last two weeks, meaning he has some time before he starts contributing. It seems that Brandin Cooks is starting to develop some chemistry with Brady, as he now has at least 85 yards or a touchdown in four of his last five games. He’ll see the most of Casey Hayward in coverage, who is their best cornerback, but he’s also not unbeatable (unless of course you’re Demaryius Thomas in Week 7). Cooks needs to be plugged in as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 most weeks, though I’d consider him as more a middling WR2 in this matchup with Hayward. Chris Hogan has now gone two straight weeks without scoring, but he’s still producing in other ways, as he’s totaled at least 60 yards in five of his last six games. This matchup favors him a bit more than Cooks, as he’ll see a mixture of Trevor Williams and Desmond King, two cornerbacks who are never asked to shadow opposing No. 1 wide receivers like Hayward does. Consider Hogan a solid WR2 who may not have the upside of Cooks, but has a bit more safety. Danny Amendola hasn’t been on the field for more than 51 percent of snaps in five of his six games played and is seeing minimal targets (just nine targets the last two weeks), making him a dicey WR4. But when deciding between him and someone else in his range, ask yourself if the player you’re choosing from can offer you the potential Amendola can while playing with Brady.
TEs: As mentioned here last week, Hunter Henry is a locked in TE1 every single week. He’s now played over 80 percent of the snaps in each of the last two games, while Antonio Gates floats around the 50 percent mark and has received just two targets in the last two weeks combined. The matchup for Henry this week is a great one, as the Patriots have really struggled to defend the tight end. Unlike the Falcons and their play-callers, the Chargers will exploit this weakness. The Patriots have already allowed 376 yards and five touchdowns to the tight end position this year, including at least one tight end touchdown in five of their seven games. Henry is a lock-and-load TE1, while Gates is just a touchdown-dependent TE2. The Chargers defense is the opposite, as they’ve allowed not one single touchdown to an opposing tight end on 38 targets this year. Rob Gronkowski isn’t your typical tight end, so grouping him in with that set of players isn’t the best thing to do. Of the last five games Gronkowski has played, he’s totaled at least 80 yards in four of them. Still, it may be a week to semi-fade him in tournaments, as the Chargers have allowed the third-fewest points to the position, despite playing against Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and Evan Engram in three of their seven games.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
Total: 48.0
Line: NO by 9.0
Apparently oddsmakers don’t see the Bears as a real contender, as they’re two possession underdogs against the Saints. It makes sense, though, as the Bears have been pretty awful away from home under John Fox. The Saints defense has played a lot better than most realize, holding three of their last four opponents to 17 points or less, something they did just twice in all of 2016. The Saints offensive line took another hit this week, losing offensive lineman Larry Warford, who had been playing at right guard this season. They’ve now lost both starters on the right side of the line after losing RT Zach Strief the other week. It’s still hard to envision them not scoring points on a Bears defense that has exceeded expectations despite a multitude of different injuries. The Bears allowed 28.1 points per game on the road last year and are allowing a massive 29.3 points per game on the road in 2017. We know the Saints offense is potent at home.
QBs: There was a lot of chatter about Mitch Trubisky and the Bears offense last week, stating that they only “trusted” him to throw the ball seven times. While the Bears do want a run-heavy approach, game-flow dictated what happened in Week 7. That was against Cam Newton and likely won’t happen against Drew Brees in New Orleans this week. Still, it’s hard to trust a quarterback who’s averaged just 16 pass attempts per game since being called upon as the starter. The Saints have also held three of the last four quarterbacks they’ve played to less than 200 yards passing. With Trubisky’s rushing ability, he can be considered in 2QB leagues, though he’s not going to win you a fantasy game or anything. Brees will be going against a surprisingly stingy Bears defense that’s held each of their last six opponents to less than 240 yards passing. It’s important to note that they’ve played against Jameis Winston, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, and Cam Newton during that stretch. None of those quarterbacks were able to throw for 7.0 yards per attempt, though Rodgers did throw four touchdowns. The Bears have been a much different team on the road, and we know that Brees puts points on the board at home. He’s locked in as a QB1.
RBs: Outside of Le’Veon Bell, it’s hard to find a running back who is being used more than Jordan Howard. He’s now totaled at least 18 carries in five straight games, including 57 carries over the last two weeks. He’s been playing through a shoulder injury, but you wouldn’t be able to tell by looking at his stat sheet. The Saints have really been beat by pass-catching running backs rather than the bruising types, allowing the third-most receiving yards to running backs on a per-game basis. Howard has slowly been removed from the passing game after multiple drops at the start of the year, where he’s now seen just one target in the last three games combined. If the Bears want to win this game, they’ll work Howard a lot in order to keep Brees and the Saints offense on the sideline. The Saints have allowed almost 4.7 yards per carry on the ground, though they’ve allowed just two running backs to cross the goal-line. Howard needs to be played as a low-end RB1, but the concern is that the Saints get up early, forcing the Bears to go a lot more pass-heavy, somewhere Howard hasn’t contributed at all. Tarik Cohen played a season-low 18.4 percent of the snaps last week against the Panthers, and likely because the Bears were in control the whole game. If the Bears fall behind, Cohen will be the main beneficiary, as Benny Cunningham has played just 15 snaps the last two weeks combined. Considering we are expecting the Bears to fall behind and all the receiving yards the Saints have allowed to running backs, Cohen can be played as an upside RB4. Since Adrian Peterson was traded, the Saints duo of Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara have hit their stride. Ingram has totaled 219 yards and three touchdowns on 47 carries, while Kamara has totaled 194 total yards on 27 touches, though he hasn’t scored. As the injuries have piled up on the Bears defensive side of the ball, their run defense has gotten progressively worse. In each of their last four games, the opponent has been able to rack up at least 21 carries as a team which bodes well for Ingram. But Kamara should get his, too, as the Bears have already allowed four running backs to total 36 or more receiving yards. Most have underestimated Kamara, as he’s an RB2 every week, now that he’s totaled at least 8.7 standard fantasy points (11.7 PPR points) in each of his last four games. Ingram should be in lineups as an RB1, while Kamara is locked in as an RB2.
WRs: Since Markus Wheaton went to I.R. and the Bears cut Deonte Thompson, here are their wide receiver snap counts over the last two weeks: Tanner Gentry 109, Tre McBride 78, Kendall Wright 33, Joshua Bellamy 5. Before you completely lose it about Wright, understand that the Bears did not go three-wide very often in the last few weeks, which is when Wright comes on the field to play the slot. I’d argue that he should be on the field in 2WR sets, but hey, what do I know? Of the five wide receiver targets (!) over the last two weeks, Wright has seen three of them, while Gentry has the other two. If you want to play a Bears wide receiver, it’s Wright. The Saints slot cornerback (whether it was Sterling Moore or Kenny Vaccaro) has been abused all season long, as they’ve combined to allow 17 catches for 199 yards on just 23 targets in coverage. It’s not ideal to play any Bears wide receiver, but Wright could be a decent WR5 play during bye weeks. Michael Thomas hasn’t had his massive breakout game of 2017 yet, but still sits as the No. 16 wide receiver on the year. It just goes to show how high his ceiling can be once he starts finding the end zone with some regularity. Remember how Mark Ingram was viewed before he started scoring? Thomas is a WR1 against the Bears who have done a solid job against the pass despite there being a lack of a true game-changer in the secondary. Of the three top-10 wide receiver performances they’ve allowed, they were all the alpha dogs on the opposing team: Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Jordy Nelson. They haven’t been beat by speed, though, so Ted Ginn is a bit shakier. The Bears held Taylor Gabriel to just 3/36/0, DeSean Jackson to 3/39/0, and Martavis Bryant to 2/30/0. Ginn is always just one play away from hitting value, but it’s not the best spot to do it here – he’s just a WR5. The Saints decided that Willie Snead needs more rest and you have to wonder if he’ll even play in this game. We don’t know too much about what’s going on with him, but it’s safe to say he’s not on fantasy radars right now. The Bears have deployed Bryce Callahan to slot wide receivers and he’s done a great job, so even if Snead sits, Brandon Coleman wouldn’t be a recommended option.
TEs: Even though most don’t realize it, Zach Miller has been seeing an extremely healthy target share since the Bears went to Trubisky. He’s seen 13 targets on 48 pass attempts, which is a massive 27 percent target share. If you’re unfamiliar with what’s considered a large target share, No. 1 wide receivers typically see anywhere from 22-28 percent, so Miller’s 27 percent is massive. He’s produced on them, too, totaling seven catches for 93 yards and two touchdowns. The concern is that the Saints have held every opposing tight end outside of Rob Gronkowski to less than 30 yards. They have allowed three touchdowns, but quarterbacks have also been intercepted three times when targeting opposing tight ends. Knowing that Trubisky will throw a lot more in this game than he’s been, it’s hard not to at least consider Miller as a high-end TE2 who can be streamed. Coby Fleener has fallen off the face of the earth and actually has less fantasy points than Seth DeValve. He’s failed to catch more than two passes or 22 yards in each of the last four games, and that’s despite Snead being out or limited in every one of them. Outside of one big play to Austin Hooper, the Bears have defended the tight end position rather well, not having allowed a single tight end to top 45 yards since the start of Week 2. Fleener can always catch a touchdown from Brees, but that can be said about a lot of tight ends. The only way you’re playing Fleener is if you’re in a 2TE league.
