San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Total: 39.5
Line: CHI by 3.5
QBs
Jimmy Garoppolo: It appears that Garoppolo will get his first start of the year in Week 13. The matchup isn’t bad against the Bears, whose defense continues to be depleted after losing pass rusher Leonard Floyd for the season. Because of that, they’ve now allowed five passing scores over the last two weeks, compared to just eight passing scores through the first 10 weeks of the season. The weather hasn’t gotten bad in Chicago, either, so that’s another plus for the passing game. Considering the lack of passing options for him to throw to, we have to keep our expectations at bay, but if his three snaps against the Seahawks showed anything, it’s that he felt comfortable. I know, that sounds dumb, but it’s all we have. If you’re in a 2QB league, go ahead and start Garoppolo, but if you’re thinking about streaming him in a 1QB league, I think you can do better.
Mitch Trubisky: If you were forced to watch the Bears game last week, you’d know that the Bears had zero chance against a swarming Eagles defense. Trubisky was pressured throughout and had his wide receivers drop three passes, but a lot of blame is on him as well, as he threw a few ugly interceptions. Pay attention to whether or not he’ll have offensive guard Josh Sitton for this game, who was diagnosed with a concussion, as he is one of the best on their offensive line. The 49ers don’t have the front-seven that the Eagles do, however, and Trubisky should have time to operate. This is a game where the Bears are likely to resort to running the ball 30-plus times, giving Trubisky limited upside even in a good matchup. This is a must-win game for John Fox to remain head coach, so look for him to lean on his defense and running the ball. With that being said, there hasn’t been a quarterback to score less than 13.1 fantasy points against the 49ers, so Trubisky is a safe-floor QB2.
RBs
Carlos Hyde: I mentioned last week that if Beathard was the starter, it would boost Hyde’s value because he’s willing to check down to Hyde in the passing game. There was no way that I would’ve predicted 13 targets. Like, what? Garoppolo isn’t going to check down nearly as much, though Hyde will still be involved due to the lack of pass-catching options. Garoppolo should also put them into scoring position much more often, something Hyde has only done in two games this year, and not since Week 6. The Bears injuries have started to add up, making this matchup much better than it was earlier in the year. Over the last four games, they’ve allowed 451 yards on 102 carries and three touchdowns, making it a matchup that you can target in fantasy football. Hyde is on the tail-end of the RB1 conversation this week.
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: It was laughable how predictable the Bears offense was last week, using Howard on first and second down, while trying to run Cohen to the outside when they did give him the ball. They did have the two on the field at the same time for a few plays, but there was no creativity to get Cohen in space. The Eagles were never a team they were going to be able to run on, but this week is a different story. The 49ers opponents average the most rushing attempts per game (33.4), while the next closest team is two full carries per game away. They have allowed just six rushing touchdowns to go along with the 1,242 yards they’ve allowed to running backs, so positive regression should be coming for them. You really get to pick your poison against them, and the Bears poison is the run game. Howard is an elite RB1 this week, whereas Cohen is a high-risk RB4 because he hasn’t topped four carries in four of the last five games.
WRs
Marquise Goodwin: It hasn’t been the prettiest, but Goodwin has managed to string together a solid two-month stretch, now finishing with at least 68 yards in four of his last six games, which has included three 80-plus yard games. Keep in mind that’s with Beathard under center, and it’s only going to get better with Garoppolo. The Bears secondary has struggled with No. 1 wide receivers this year, though Goodwin isn’t really the prototypical No. 1 for an offense. Still, on the year the Bears have allowed seven top-15 wide receivers and all of them have been the opposing offense’s top target, though Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams are (1A/1B). Kyle Fuller is likely going to see him the most in coverage, and that’s a matchup to desire as Fuller has allowed 584 yards in his coverage, which ranks fifth-most among all cornerbacks. Goodwin has the looks of an upside WR4 this week.
Dontrelle Inman: Another non-traditional No. 1 wide receiver in an offense, Inman has been the go-to receiver for Trubisky, totaling 22 targets the last three weeks, hauling in 13 of them for 195 yards, though he hasn’t scored yet. Against the 49ers, that may change. Their secondary is a mess, as they have no playmaker on the defense who can cover step-for-step. Even if Trubisky only throws the ball 25 times, Inman’s 20-plus percent target share would net him five-plus targets. From Week 7 through Week 12, the 49ers have allowed at least one opposing receiver to total at least 62 yards, and Inman the only logical one on this team. He’s got the looks of a semi-safe WR4 this week.
Kendall Wright: Only taking the field in 3WR sets, Wright is a bad play in Week 13, as the Bears figure to run the ball a ton. If you go back to the Ravens game when the Bears ran the ball more than 40 times, Wright played just 25-of-80 snaps. He’s best left on waiver wires.
TEs
George Kittle: He returned in Week 12, though he played behind Garrett Celek who won the snap count 48 to 25. It seems that this may be a timeshare going forward, and knowing how sporadic the production has been, it’s best to avoid this timeshare. The Bears defense hasn’t been extremely giving to tight ends, despite what Zach Ertz did to them last week.
Adam Shaheen: Don’t get caught up in the hype, though it died down last week with his one-catch performance. He ranked third on the tight ends in snaps during that game, so expecting any production would be totally random. This is another timeshare to avoid in fantasy.
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens
Total: 42.0
Line: BAL by 3.0
QBs
Matthew Stafford: He’s had a full week and a half to get ready for this game, while the Ravens defense will have played just six days earlier. It’s an advantage for Stafford, and he needs it against a defense that’s yet to allow a quarterback to throw for more than 252 yards against them. There’s also been just two quarterbacks to throw for more than one touchdown, though if we’re being fair, their schedule has been rather easy. They have yet to play a top-10 fantasy quarterback and have played just one quarterback who ranks inside the top-18 (Ben Roethlisberger). Still, it’s impressive to see those stats as we enter Week 13. With the way the Ravens stop the run and the way the Lions can’t run, throwing the ball is the only option for the Lions offense. Look for Stafford to throw the ball 40-plus times in this game and finish with respectable low-end QB1/high-end QB2 numbers.
Joe Flacco: Let me start by saying sorry. Flacco couldn’t even post solid QB2-like numbers against the lowly Texans last week, which I really thought anyone could do at this point. After that game, Flacco came out and said they cannot continue to play it safe on offense and expect to get to the Super Bowl. Well, Joe, I don’t know how else to say this, but you control the offense. Granted, his pass-catchers are less than ideal, but his yards per attempt looks more like yards per carry, as he’s been at 5.0 or below in six of his last nine games. Alvin Kamara has more games over 5.0 yards per carry than Flacco does games over 5.0 yards per attempt. Over the last four weeks, the Lions defense has allowed these quarterback fantasy totals: Case Keenum (27.3), Mitch Trubisky (16.5), DeShone Kizer (23.0), and Brett Hundley (18.0). There’s not much hope for Flacco, but he can be played in 2QB leagues.
RBs
Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick: It’s only a matter of time before the Lions realize that Abdullah isn’t going to be able to run behind this offensive line, which should move them more in a direction of the way they used to move the ball through Riddick in the passing game. The Ravens have actually allowed the seventh-most rushing yards on the season despite their low 3.86 yards per carry allowed, though a lot of that came while DT Brandon Williams was out. They are not someone you can run on at this moment in time, especially while at home. Abdullah is nothing more than an RB3 in this matchup who will need to score in order to hit any sort of value. Riddick isn’t the ideal play either, as there have been just four running backs to total more than 25 receiving yards against them. I do, however, still think he’s in play as a flex-option for those who are desperate because of the way they’ll struggle to run the ball.
Alex Collins and Danny Woodhead: Of course Javorius Allen would score a touchdown last week while playing just 15 snaps. He was out-snapped by both Collins (31) and Woodhead (22) in that game, so don’t expect that to continue. Collins is the one they are leaning on and he was the first player to rush for a touchdown against the Texans since back in Week 1. He’s running with a purpose and the Lions have been underwhelming against the run as of late, allowing 107 or more rushing yards to each of their last three opponents. Even Isaiah Crowell was able to rush for 90 yards and a touchdown against them, and he’s a worse version of Collins. That’s likely an effect of being without former-Raven Haloti Ngata, who is out for the season. Collins should be played as a strong RB2 in all formats, while Woodhead can be played as an RB3 in PPR formats, though he’s just an RB4 in standard leagues.
WRs
Marvin Jones: For those who played Jones last week in his matchup with Xavier Rhodes, I guess a congrats is in order? The process wasn’t right, but the result was optimal. When you consider that he was shut down by the Browns, do we even know what reality is anymore? The Ravens have a couple of solid perimeter cornerbacks in Brandon Carr and Jimmy Smith, but knowing that Jones just dominated Rhodes, it’s hard to sit him, even in a tough matchup. I’m not going to recommend him as anything more than a high-end WR3/low-end WR2, as the Ravens have allowed just five top-20 wide receivers all year and two of those wide receivers were not No. 1 options. You don’t want to bench a player who has seen seven or more targets in six of his last seven games, including five touchdowns in the last four games.
Golden Tate: It’s now back-to-back weeks where Tate has been invisible, totaling just 39 yards over two games combined. Consider it to be situational more than anything and expect him to bounce back as soon as this week. The Ravens slot cornerback is Maurice Canady, their sixth-round pick from 2016 who started the year on IR, but returned in Week 9. He’s a bigger slot corner at 6-2, 190 pounds, which may make it difficult to hang with the shifty Tate. I’d be playing Tate as a WR3 at the worst, and a low-end WR2 in PPR formats.
Jeremy Maclin: Yuck. That’s all we can say after Maclin’s five-target, one-catch performance against the Texans who had been allowing massive games week-in and week-out. He’s now caught just five passes for 40 yards over the last two weeks and is struggling to find the end zone, as is Flacco. He’s still seen at least five targets in each of his last eight games, and production typically follows players who see that consistent of volume. The Lions have Quandre Diggs cover the slot, a matchup that the veteran Maclin can exploit. It’s hard to trust him as anything more than a high-end WR4, but when looking at those in his range and having a hard time deciding, Maclin is likely my choice.
Mike Wallace: He’s now seen 22 targets over the last three weeks, though he’s failed to top 56 yards in all but one game this year, meaning he’s got to score in order to achieve WR3 status. The matchup against Darius Slay is going to be difficult for him, as Slay has played at a Pro-Bowl level this year, allowing just a 65.7 QB Rating when targeted in coverage. You can do better than Wallace as a WR5 this week.
TEs
Eric Ebron: He’s now caught four passes in each of the last two games, which is something he hadn’t done all year, so we’re seeing progress. He’s also totaled at least 34 yards in each of the last five games, which isn’t all that common by a tight end. If he sees targets against the Ravens, good things can happen, as they’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per target to tight ends on the season. Considering we know the Lions won’t be able to run the ball and that Stafford should have increased pass attempts, Ebron definitely belongs in the streaming conversation as a high-end TE2.
Ben Watson: This is a tough cookie to crack, because Watson has seen at least five targets in five different games, and the Lions are bleeding fantasy points to tight ends. On the season, they’re allowing the most fantasy points per target to tight ends (yes, more than the Giants and Browns) in both standard and PPR formats. Watson has two touchdowns on the year, but oddly enough, neither of them have come from Flacco. Both have come from Ryan Mallett when he has come in to relieve Flacco. Knowing it’s such a good matchup, maybe pop Watson into a few DFS lineups. He’s towards the high-end of TE2’s in season-long leagues.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
Total: 47.5
Line: ATL by 3.0
QBs
Case Keenum: America’s favorite quarterback seems to have a grip on the Vikings starting gig, even though Teddy Bridgewater is ready to return to game action. Keenum has gone straight from rags-to-riches, as he’s slated to become a free agent at the end of the year. The matchup with the Falcons isn’t a bad one, either, though it’s also not great. They have bent, but never broke as a unit, allowing just 228 passing yards per game with 13 passing touchdowns through 11 games. There’s been just one quarterback to throw for more than 283 yards against them (Aaron Rodgers) and there’s been no quarterback to throw for more than two touchdowns. It will help his projection if Desmond Trufant is forced to miss this game, as he suffered a concussion in their Week 12 win over the Bucs. As of now, Keenum is definitely in the streaming high-end QB2 conversation, but his upside appears to be capped for this contest.
Matt Ryan: He’s been on a roll as of late, though Mohamed Sanu stole one of his touchdown passes in Week 12, which would have given Ryan two touchdown passes in five straight games. The issue is that Ryan hasn’t been throwing the ball very much, finishing with more than 35 attempts just twice all season. Against the Vikings, that’s an issue. There’s been just three quarterbacks who have finished with more than 15 fantasy points against them and all of them threw the ball at least 35 times. Even then, just one quarterback scored more than 17 fantasy points, and that was Kirk Cousins who ran for two touchdowns (would have had 15.1 points without his rushing). Through 12 weeks, there’s been just three quarterbacks to throw for more than one touchdown against them. Knowing that, it’s hard to say that Ryan is a QB1 this week, as it often takes 16 or more fantasy points to finish in the QB1 territory. Consider him a high-end QB2, though.
RBs
Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon: The updated touch count over the last five weeks is now: Murray 91 (89 rush, 2 rec), McKinnon 82 (65 rush, 17 rec). It’s easy to see how this is playing out, as Murray is the clock-killing running back when they have a lead (quite often), while McKinnon is the one who’ll mix in on first and second down, but get 80 percent of the receiving work. Against the Falcons on the road, this should be a McKinnon week. There have been 12 different running backs to play against the Falcons and total at least 23 yards through the air, where there’s been just one running back to total more than 76 yards on the ground. The Falcons have allowed just five rushing scores on the year, though two of them came to backup running back Peyton Barber last week. Murray is still in play as a low-end RB2 for this game because of the goal-line work he’ll get, but McKinnon is a rock-solid RB2 against the team that’s allowed the most receptions (71) to running backs through 11 games.
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman: It seems like Freeman is on track to play in this game, which is good news after seeing him concussed a few weeks back. Coleman has solidified the timeshare, however, as he’s played well in Freeman’s absence. He’s now scored five touchdowns in the last four games, so it’s going to be hard not to ride him on this hot streak. The Vikings play the run extremely well, though, allowing just 3.39 yards per carry and three touchdowns on the year. Not just that, but they haven’t allowed much through the air to running backs. They’ve allowed just 36.8 yards per game through the air to running backs, which ranks No. 8 in the league, and they’ve allowed just one receiving touchdown to them. Still, it’s hard to completely fade the Falcons running backs at home. As of now, I’d say they are both semi-risky RB2’s in fantasy, and it’s hard to say which one will be more valuable this week.
WRs
Adam Thielen: There hasn’t been a more consistent producer in PPR leagues than Thielen, as he’s totaled at least 8.9 points in all but one game this year, including 16.9 or more in each of his last four games. He’s the favorite target for Keenum and there’s little reason to doubt them in Week 13, as the Falcons use Brian Poole out of the slot, who has allowed an 82 percent catch rate in his coverage this year. Not just that, but he suffered a back injury in their Week 12 game, putting his status in doubt for this game. Another heavily targeted slot wide receiver named Jarvis Landry posted eight catches for 62 yards and a touchdown against them back in Week 6. Considering he’s seen at least eight targets in each of the last nine games, Thielen should be considered a WR1 for this week.
Stefon Diggs: If only we could get Diggs a portion of that Thielen pie, he’d be producing as a WR1 as well. Of wide receivers with at least 60 targets, Diggs ranks fifth in yards per target behind only Brandin Cooks, Julio Jones, Robert Woods, and T.Y. Hilton. He’s failed to see more than seven targets since way back in Week 3, making him a lot more volatile than Thielen. His matchup this week is a good one, too, as the Falcons may be without Desmond Trufant, who is in the concussion protocol. That leaves them with Robert Alford and C.J. Goodwin, an undrafted free agent from the 2014 draft who has played just 207 snaps in his career. This is a matchup where Diggs can turn out as the No. 1 Vikings receiver if he gets the targets. He needs to be played as a high-end WR2.
Julio Jones: It was so nice to see Jones silence the doubters in Week 12, as he went for 250-plus yards for the third time in his career, something no other wide receiver has ever accomplished. With that being said, he’s going to have a tough counterpart in his Week 13 matchup. The Vikings use Xavier Rhodes in shadow coverage and potentially even in the slot with someone like Jones. Knowing that the Falcons have no issue targeting everyone but Jones (he’s been underutilized throughout his career), that’s a concern in his outlook. But here’s the thing – if any team trusts a cornerback one-on-one with Jones, they won’t win that matchup. Even if Rhodes is a top-three cornerback in the league (I think he is), there isn’t a cornerback in the league who can completely shut down someone of Jones’ talent level. Again, targets are the risk, but if he gets them, he’ll produce. Knowing that he was removed from the injury report last week should give you assurance when slotting him in as a WR1.
Mohamed Sanu: Knowing that Jones is in a tough matchup, it should make you feel better about Sanu, who has posted at least 8.3 fantasy points in four of the last five games, though they have been courtesy of the touchdown, as he’s scored in each of those games. His matchup with Terence Newman isn’t a great one, but he’s also 39 years old and his skills have started to diminish. He’s allowing a higher catch rate, yards per reception, and more touchdowns than he did last year. It’s not a matchup you need to target in DFS or anything, but he’s in the WR4 range in season-long.
Taylor Gabriel: He’s been silent the last two weeks with just five catches for 23 yards in the two games combined, but has a solid matchup with Trae Waynes this week. When looking at the game logs against the Vikings, a lot of speedy No. 2 wide receivers are near the top. Martavis Bryant and DeSean Jackson were able to post at least 84 yards and a touchdown against Waynes, and while Gabriel isn’t in that range of talent, we’ve seen him produce in this offense before. He’s more of a dart-throw in DFS tournaments, while he remains a WR5/WR6 in season-long.
TEs
Kyle Rudolph: Where did that Thanksgiving performance come from? After seeing seven-plus targets in six straight games and not performing, Rudolph saw just four targets against the Lions, but turned them into a season-high 63 yards and two touchdowns. Knowing that the Lions have allowed the most fantasy points per target to tight ends, it probably makes more sense. The Falcons have been the opposite and have allowed just four top-12 performances this year. They have allowed just two touchdowns to them on the year, which is where Rudolph needs to get his production. Consider him just a low-end TE1 who can score a touchdown because of all the focus elsewhere.
Austin Hooper: Just when you thought you could trust Hooper, he goes and scores just 3.7 fantasy points over two weeks combined. He’s the definition of a streamer, but he’s failed to be consistent, even in good matchups, making him unplayable in season-long leagues a lot of the time. The Vikings haven’t been a team to target with streamers, as there’s been just two tight ends all year who have reached 40 yards against them. Hooper shouldn’t be a preferred streaming option this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
Total: N/A
Line: N/A
QBs
Jameis Winston: They haven’t set a line on this game yet, and that’s because they have no confirmation that Winston will play. That would move the line all sorts, so they’ve decided not to post one. Remember when everyone said that Ryan Fitzpatrick was an upgrade for the wide receivers and tight ends? That was fun. There’s a slight issue with completely trusting Winston this week, though, as we jus found out that he lost two starting offensive lineman this week. Starting center Ali Marpet and right tackle Demar Dotson, who have been two of the bright spots on the line. It’s going to hurt both the run game and pass game, though the run game wasn’t working anyway. It does help that they’re playing the Packers, who rank 21st in sack percentage. Winston is going to be hard to trust completely, but his matchup is pristine. The only quarterbacks who have truly struggled against the Packers have been Joe Flacco and Mike Glennon. Outside of those two, the Packers have allowed at least 13.1 fantasy points to every quarterback they’ve played, including three 330-yard passing games by Matthew Stafford, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger, three gunslingers, just like Winston. The fact that they don’t have cornerbacks to cover Evans and Jackson, Winston should be looked at as a high-risk, high-reward, high-end QB2 and one that I’d trust over most streamers. If he’s playing, he should be healthy, as he is the Bucs future.
Brett Hundley: Can we not do this again? You know, the whole “Hundley is good” thing. Did you know that just 25 percent of his yardage in Week 12 came while the ball was in the air? Yep, the wide receivers and running backs did 75 percent of it after the catch. Only Blake Bortles had a lower number last week. It’s smart from the Packers standpoint, so expect more of the same against the Bucs defense who has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Bucs are definitely a better team against the run than they are the pass, and they’ve also allowed four quarterbacks to rush for at least 18 yards, something that Hundley does to raise his floor. Consider him a high-floor QB2 against the team who has yet to hold a quarterback to fewer than 12 fantasy points. That’s because every quarterback has thrown at least one touchdown against them.
RBs
Doug Martin, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Peyton Barber: We don’t know if Martin will be cleared from his concussion in time for this game, but it may be better if he’s held out so you don’t feel the need to play him. He’s been brutal this year and has now failed to score more than 8.0 fantasy points since way back in Week 6. It’s a wonder why the Bucs haven’t used Rodgers more, especially when they made it a point to re-sign him very early in the free agent process. He played well in his opportunities last year, though he’s failed to make an impact in 2017. If Martin misses this game, my guess would be that he and Barber would be in a timeshare, with Barber getting goal-line work. The Packers are likely to be without Kenny Clark again, who is the biggest cog in the middle of the field for them along with Mike Daniels. If he’s out, upgrade the Bucs run game, though their offensive line is a concern itself. Whichever one of Martin or Rodgers starts, consider them a risky RB3, while Barber is just a touchdown-dependent RB4/RB5 that I wouldn’t want to trust in season-long leagues.
Jamaal Williams: Welcome to the roller coaster of Packers running backs this season! First it was Ty Montgomery that everyone wanted, then when he got hurt it was Williams, then it was Aaron Jones, now it’s Williams again. Whew. The Bucs defense has been so inconsistent this year, but if there’s one thing we know, it’s that they allow a lot of rushing touchdowns, now having allowed nine of them on the season. It would appear that Montgomery returns this week, though it’s hard to see him eating into much of Williams’ work. There have been five different running backs to total at least 15 carries against the Bucs and all of them have totaled at least 77 yards on the ground. Because of that, Williams should be played as a low-end RB2 whose ceiling is a bit capped if Montgomery is back in the lineup.
WRs
Mike Evans: Welcome back, Mr. Winston, though if we’re being fair, Fitzpatrick did target him 22 times over the last two games. Whatever the case, Evans just doesn’t look into it this year, which is really odd. I’ve watched the last two games and he’s just looked like he’s playing very relaxed. Maybe it has something to do with his suspension and him being asked to calm down, but we need him to play with the same emotion that he always does. Whatever the case, he’s still totaled at least 60 yards in all but two games this season. His last touchdown was in Week 7, meaning there’s a two-touchdown game coming here at some point. Against the Packers, this is the perfect time. On the year, they’ve now allowed six 100-yard games to wide receivers (another four 80-yard games) and three multi-touchdown games to them. It’s going to be hard not to rank Evans as the No. 1 wide receiver this week, though there is just a little bit of risk not knowing if Winston is 100 percent. Still, I’d recommend trusting him wherever you can. My bold prediction is that he goes off for 100-plus yards and two touchdowns.
DeSean Jackson: He’s played great this year, though the numbers aren’t off the charts. He’s another one who will welcome back Winston with open arms, as Fitzpatrick just doesn’t have the arm to mesh with Jackson’s speed. This game is in Green Bay and likely to be a bit cold, which isn’t ideal for Jackson who has played much better indoors during his career. He’ll see a mix of both Davon House and Kevin King in coverage, a duo that’s allowing a 103.2 QB Rating in coverage. As a unit, they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per target. I still think this is an Evans game, especially with the offensive line shuffling around, but Jackson is still in the WR3 conversation who can break a big play at any time against a bad defense.
Davante Adams: We’ve gotten through the worst of Hundley, and Adams is sitting there as the WR15 since Week 6 when Hundley took over. Over the last three weeks, their connection seems to be growing stronger, too, as he’s totaled at least five catches and 82 yards in each game, including two touchdowns. The Bucs have been one of (if not the) most giving team to opposing wide receivers, allowing 18 different wide receivers finish as top-24 options, which is a league-high. Knowing that this won’t be a defensive battle, you can plan on Adams getting eight-plus targets like he has in six of the last seven games, and should be played as a high-end WR2.
Jordy Nelson: And now I’m sad. It’s gotten to the point that Nelson is droppable if there’s a player on waivers who can help your team. Since Hundley took over as the starter, Nelson has averaged just over five targets per game, 2.6 receptions, 20.6 yards, and has still yet to score a touchdown. If you wanted to give him one last chance, here’s your matchup. As mentioned in the Adams paragraph, the Bucs have allowed 18 wide receivers to post top-24 numbers against them, which is more than one and a half per game. I wouldn’t start him over proven WR3 commodities, but he’s definitely in the WR4 conversation this week.
Randall Cobb: Heck, even Cobb has been more productive with Hundley than Nelson, now totaling at least 52 yards in three of his last four games. The issue with relying on that is because he’s broke a big play in each of those games with catches of 46, 38, and 39 yards. He’s seeing anywhere in between 4-6 targets per week, which is tough to remain consistent with. I’d prefer Nelson in this game, but Cobb isn’t the worst WR4 in this plus-matchup.
TEs
Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard: This one is a bit confusing, as we don’t know if the Bucs are moving more towards Howard as the primary pass-catcher or if he was just Fitzpatrick’s preference. Over the last two games, Howard has totaled eight targets that have turned into six catches for 104 yards and a touchdown, while Brate has seen just six targets that have turned into two catches for 22 yards and no touchdowns. Throughout the year, I’ve mentioned that Howard was playing more snaps than Brate, but that he was the blocker a majority of the time, while Brate ran more routes. Looking at last week’s totals, Howard ran a season-high 28 pass routes and played a season-high 75 percent of the snaps. It was the first time all year Howard ran more pass routes, so we don’t want to automatically assume that he’s the guy, but it’s obviously a concern for Brate. This week is a brutal matchup against the Packers, who have been the league’s best defense against tight ends, allowing just 37.9 yards per game to them and just one touchdown on the year, which was to Xavier Grimble on a shovel pass last week. Knowing that they may split the targets, both are just high-upside TE2’s this week.
Lance Kendricks: Don’t bother looking at a Packers tight end to play, as none of them have caught more than two passes since Hundley took over in Week 6. That’s a long time to go with no player over two catches, 32 yards, and not a single touchdown.