Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Total: 40.5
Line: HOU by 9.5

QBs
Josh Allen: He’s “led” the Bills to two wins in the last three weeks, though the defense has continually put him in a good position. He’s scored 57.4 fantasy points this year, though 31.5 of them have come with his legs. Even though he ran for 19 yards and a touchdown last week, he failed to hit 10 fantasy points. Bottom line is that you don’t want to use him in fantasy football, especially against a fierce pass-rush like the Texans have. He’s bound to make mistakes throwing the ball and even though he may extend plays with his legs, it won’t be enough to make him fantasy relevant this week.

Deshaun Watson: After a mediocre Week 5 performance against the Cowboys, Watson will attempt to get back on track against the Bills at home in Week 6. It seemed like Fuller may not have been 100 percent and the lack of run-game will continually put more pressure on Watson. The Bills allowed six passing touchdowns over the first two weeks, but have allowed just two touchdowns in the three weeks since, which included games against Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. They held Cousins, Rodgers, and Marcus Mariota to 17 points or less, as all of them finished outside the top-18 quarterbacks against them. While I won’t say that they’re a defense you absolutely need to avoid, they’re clearly not one you have to target right now. With the lack of run-game, he’s still likely to drop back 40-plus times which should produce fantasy points one way or another. He’s totaled at least 36 rushing yards in every game, so that’s essentially another passing touchdown. He’s on the QB1 radar, though it’s toward the lower end this week.

RBs
LeSean McCoy: He totaled a season-high 24 carries and netted over 100 total yards against a tough Titans defense last week, so it appears there’s some hope for McCoy, though it may not last long. He’ll now go on the road to play against the Texans who have yet to allow a running back more than 82 yards on the ground, and that’s despite five running backs totaling at least 14 carries. The latest running back to enter their sink hole was Ezekiel Elliott, who totaled just 54 yards on 20 carries. On the season, they’ve held opposing backs to just 3.45 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown. The area they can be exploited is through the air, as they’ve allowed 28 receptions and three receiving touchdowns to running backs. The issue, however, is that McCoy is playing just 59 percent of the snaps, which tells us that he’s not even gamescript-proof. He’s caught just 10 passes for 64 yards in four games, so it’s clear we can’t rely on the pass-game work that we have in the past. He’s just a low-end RB3 for this game who will bust unless he gets more work than he has in the passing-game.

Lamar Miller: After the game on Sunday night, coach Bill O’Brien said that he expects Miller back for this game and I believe him. After watching Alfred Blue struggle to do anything against the Sean Lee-less Cowboys, maybe we’ve put too much of the blame on Miller for his struggles this year. Their offensive line is pitiful and neither Miller or Blue are game-changers who can overcome that. The Bills defense is one that can be tagged, though they’ve played better over the last three games. After they allowed six running back touchdowns in Weeks 1 and 2, they’ve allowed just one over the last three weeks, though it should be noted that of those three teams, the combination of running backs have accounted for just one touchdown in non-Bills games this season (Vikings, Packers, Titans). The Texans have just two running back touchdowns on the season, so they aren’t much better, but as a heavy home-favorite, Miller should be plugged-in as a low-end RB2 who could surprise if he’s healthy. Update: Miller did practice in full this week, so feel free to pop him back into lineups. 

WRs
Kelvin Benjamin: We’re now five weeks and 26 targets into the season, yet Benjamin has just eight catches for 103 yards and one touchdown on the season. So much for saying that Cam Newton was a bad passer, eh Kelvin? The Texans are a team who you typically want to target with wide receivers, as they’ve allowed nine wide receivers to score at least 10.5 PPR points through five games, and that’s with the Cowboys not having a single one of them last week. For a guy who has one catch in 3-of-5 games, it’s tough to say that he’s an option, though if he were to ever have a chance to score a touchdown, this may be his best chance.

DeAndre Hopkins: He’s one of the select few who’ve seen at least 10 targets in every game, and it’s led to 107.7 PPR points, which ranks as the third-most among receivers, behind only Adam Thielen and Michael Thomas. His matchup this week is a bit tough, though. He will match-up with Tre’Davious White, the second-year cornerback who’s been shadowing and removing opposing No. 1 wide receivers as of late. The last three weeks he’s been asked to matchup with Stefon Diggs (4/17/0), Davante Adams (8/81/0), and Corey Davis (4/49/0), who all finished outside the top-24 options. While I’m not suggesting that Hopkins will as well, it’s something you need to be aware of, as White has done a phenomenal job in coverage. Hopkins should be considered a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 who’s not playable in cash games, though he’s someone I’d still consider in tournaments, as he can win any one-on-one matchup if targeted enough.

Will Fuller: I didn’t expect Fuller to play last week and it wasn’t a great matchup regardless, so hopefully you sat him against the Cowboys. He did play 77-of-80 snaps, so you should proceed as if he’s healthy moving forward. The Bills will undoubtedly have Tre’Davious White on Hopkins, leaving Fuller with Phillip Gaines, who returned last week after a multi-week absence due to an elbow injury. This is a phenomenal matchup for Fuller, as Gaines has allowed a 104.1 or better QB Rating in his coverage each of the last three seasons, including 15.6 or more yards per reception in each season. The Bills have only allowed four wide receiver touchdowns through five games, but Fuller might be the best bet on the Texans this week. Consider him a solid WR3 who comes with upside.

Keke Coutee: He was considered unlikely to play by many last week, but he took the field and had another great fantasy day. Now two games into his career, he’s seen 22 targets and hauled in 17 of them for 160 yards and a touchdown. Coutee is here to stay in the offense, and works well with Watson who is constantly under pressure. The Bills have had fourth-round rookie Taron Johnson manning the slot for them, who has done a respectable job the last two weeks, but he’s also the one who was there when Adam Thielen posted 14 catches for 105 yards. He’s not particularly fast as he ran a 4.5-second 40-yard dash, while Coutee is extremely quick and slippery. With Hopkins in a tough matchup, it’s not out of the question that Coutee gives you another solid performance in Week 6. Consider him a solid high-floor WR4 against the Bills.

TEs
Charles Clay: After seemingly moving in the right direction, Clay saw just one target against the Titans in Week 5. He’s now sitting at just 15 targets through five games and has failed to top 40 yards in any one game. We also know that Allen doesn’t throw many touchdowns, so it’s very unlikely that Clay, who has scored just 12 touchdowns the last four years, is likely to find the end zone on any given Sunday. The Texans aren’t stout against the tight end position, as Tyrann Mathieu continues to look like the player who Arizona let go, though he’s equipped to handle someone like Clay. He’s not to be considered and is best left on the waiver wire.

Ryan Griffin: How in the world do we go from 11 targets in the first four games to nine targets in Week 5 despite all the wide receivers being healthy and active? The Texans obviously saw something they wanted to exploit on the Dallas defense, as Griffin racked up six catches for 65 yards. He’s still sharing some snaps with Jordan Akins, but this is a positive sign for Griffin in the grand scheme of things. The Bills safety duo is extremely good, though they were missing Micah Hyde last week. It’s not likely Griffin has a game for the remainder of the season where he’s targeted more than six times, so let’s just take this is a one-off situation. He’s out of the streaming conversation until we see a trend in his performances.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

Total: 43.0
Line: MIN by 10.5

QBs
Josh Rosen: Some will say that Rosen has been a victim of bad pass-catching, as his receivers have dropped six of his 59 pass attempts, but even when we factor in his drops, throw aways, batted balls, and spiked balls, his accuracy sits as the second-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Tyrod Taylor, and just behind Josh Allen and Sam Bradford. He’s in a bad situation for sure, but it’s what we have to work with, right? He threw a 75-yard touchdown to Kirk on the first possession of the game last week but completed just 9-of-24 passes for 95 yards the remainder of the game. Don’t completely lose hope in Rosen long-term, but it’s hard to see him becoming a fantasy option this year with this surrounding cast. Outside of the one game where they traveled across the country and played on a short week against the Rams, the Vikings have allowed just five passing touchdowns in their other four games. They were also a team who allowed just 13.8 points per game while at home last year. They need a confidence-building game and after losing to the Bills at home, they won’t take anything for granted. This is their first home game since then and Rosen will likely feel the wrath. He’s not even a great option in 2QB leagues this week.

Kirk Cousins: It was impressive to see Cousins walk into Philadelphia and get a win, especially when you consider he completed 30-of-37 passes for 301 yards and a touchdown. It was just the second time all season he threw the ball less than 48 times, which is just ridiculous. Knowing how bad they’ve been at running the ball, it’s likely we see Cousins rack up attempts, though this week shouldn’t be one of them. The Cardinals are having issues putting up points on the board, as they’ve scored just 13.0 points per game, the second-lowest in the NFL. The only way they put the Vikings in a throwing situation is if the Vikings turn the ball over in their own territory the way Cousins did against the Bills. The Cardinals defense has really struggled against the run, allowing eight rushing touchdowns, while allowing just five passing touchdowns through five games. Thielen has a great matchup in the slot, so they should really attack that part of the field, and it should allow Cousins to post solid-enough low-end QB1 numbers despite the Cardinals allowing just one top-10 quarterback performance this year. It does help that they played 98 snaps on defense last week, which is nearly two games and are now traveling halfway across the country to Minnesota.

RBs
David Johnson: It was good to see Johnson come through last week, as the matchup against the 49ers was too good for him not to. I’m still puzzled trying to figure out his lack of involvement in the passing-game, as he can do wonders for Rosen’s accuracy and confidence. He ranks 17th among running backs in targets, behind guys like Javorius Allen and Kenyan Drake. Coaching absolutely matters. The Vikings defense has struggled at times this year, though their run-defense has been legit. On the year, they’ve allowed sub-4.0 yards per carry and have still yet to allow a rushing touchdown. Where they can be exploited, is to pass-catching running backs. Over the last thee weeks, they’ve allowed Wendell Smallwood 3/44/1, Todd Gurley 4/73/1, and Chris Ivory 3/70/0 in the passing-game. Knowing that Johnson has failed to see more than four targets since Week 1, we can’t even rely on him to see enough work there to start him confidently. Gurley was the only running back who finished top-18 against them, so consider Johnson just a middling RB2 this week who needs to be used differently.

Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray: I’m expecting Cook to come back for this game after they gave him a reassurance game off to make sure he was healthy. The Vikings need their run-game to get going and this could be their opportunity to do just that, as the Cardinals have allowed eight rushing touchdowns compared to just five passing touchdowns. They’re the only team in the NFL who’s allowed fewer passing touchdowns than rushing touchdowns. The Vikings offensive line should be able to get some push against a Cardinals defensive front that’s had little success under new head coach Steve Wilks, though it doesn’t help that there’s been five running backs who’ve totaled at least 18 carries against them. When you see that much volume, you’re likely to break at some points. They’ve faced 34.8 rushing attempts per game, which is by far the most in the NFL through five weeks, as the closest team is the Dolphins, who’ve allowed 29.2 carries per game. It’s why the Cardinals have allowed at least 27.8 PPR points to running backs in every game. This could be the game where Cook gets back on track, though we’ll want to make sure he’s practicing in full throughout the week before committing to him as a high-end RB2. Murray hasn’t been able to recapture the magic he had last year, as he’s totaled just 106 scoreless yards on 30 carries. Provided Cook is back in his full-time role, Murray likely goes back to his 5-10 touch he had at the start of the season, but there’s a chance the Vikings ease Cook back in, making Murray an RB4 in a plus-matchup where the Vikings might get their first rushing touchdown of the year. Update: Cook is listed as questionable after getting in just a limited practice on Friday. Even if he plays, he’s unlikely to have a full workload, so he’s more in the RB3 territory, while Murray is looking like a similar RB3 play who might actually be safer. 

WRs
Larry Fitzgerald: If we didn’t see the name on his jersey, Fitzgerald would be on most waiver wires. He’s now finished with 35 yards or less in each of his last four games. Not just that, but he’s failed to catch more than three passes since Week 1. He’s playing through a hamstring injury, but it’s more than just that, as his quarterback situation is less than ideal, and the offense has no creativity. He’s going to see Mackensie Alexander in the slot this week, a former second-round pick from 2016 who’s logged just 600 career snaps. Through the four games he’s played this year, he’s allowed 14-of-14 passing for 177 yards, which is good for a 118.8 QB Rating. He’s their weak spot at cornerback, so it’s possible that Fitzgerald reappears on the fantasy radar if his hamstring is okay. With Rosen under center, he’s caught just 5-of-10 targets for 63 yards, so it’s tough to say he’s anything more than a WR4, but his matchup is a good one.

Christian Kirk: If there’s one receiver who’s on the same page as Rosen, it’s Kirk who has caught 7-of-9 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. The issue with thinking that continues is because he’ll match-up with Xavier Rhodes and Mike Hughes this week, a cornerback duo that’s one of the better ones in the NFL, though the Rams would obviously disagree. Outside of that game, the Vikings have allowed just three wide receivers to score more than 8.5 PPR points. Two of them were Packers receivers, so we’re talking about a different level of competition. While Rhodes isn’t playing at the level he once was, it’s not a plus-matchup that you can exploit with Kirk, making him just a WR5 option. If there’s any hope for him, it’s that he’s still running about 40 percent of his routes out of the slot, an area of the field the Vikings can be exposed.

Adam Thielen: It’s kind of ridiculous what Thielen has done on this year, as his current 16-game pace would be 211 targets, 150 receptions, 1,885 yards, and 10 touchdowns. That would be an all-time top-10 performance in fantasy football. Want those numbers to get even bigger? It could happen this week, as the Cardinals one position to exploit is the slot. They’ve moved Budda Baker from safety to slot cornerback and it hasn’t worked out. He’s allowed 23/250/0 on 27 targets in coverage this season, which tells you that he hasn’t been targeted enough. We saw Trent Taylor have a career day last week, finishing with 7/61/1 on eight targets, and though Baker wasn’t charged with the touchdown, it’s because they play a lot of zone coverage. Thielen is an elite-level WR1 who you are playing every week.

Stefon Diggs: The Vikings wide receivers are scary to cover because if you give Thielen too much attention, Diggs will beat you. He’s an elite wide receiver who’s been overshadowed by Thielen, because most would be shocked to hear that Diggs is the No. 7 receiver in fantasy through five weeks. You’ll likely see that ranking drop after this week, though, as he’s going to see a lot of Patrick Peterson in coverage. The Cardinals haven’t been moving him around the formation, so it’s possible that Diggs can get Bene Benwikere in coverage at times, though competent coaching would have Peterson follow Diggs. The Cardinals have play a ton of zone coverage which hurts a wide receiver like Diggs, who is a phenomenal route-runner who excels in man coverage because he can create space. When targeting Diggs against man coverage, Cousins has a perfect 158.3 QB Rating, while he has a 64.4 QB Rating while targeting him in zone coverage. This could be a week where Diggs disappoints his fantasy owners, as he’s just a mediocre WR2.

TEs
Ricky Seals-Jones: Is it possible that the whole Seals-Jones experiment isn’t working? He’s now seen 10 targets over the last two weeks with Rosen, connecting on just two of them for 52 yards. None of the other 43 tight ends who’ve seen six targets in a game failed to catch a pass on them like Seals-Jones did last week. He’s now 11th in tight end targets, but 23rd in production, which is obviously not great. The Vikings are a team who’s struggled against the tight end position, as they’ve allowed three tight ends to post at least 90 yards against them. They were big names (Kittle, Graham, and Ertz), so we don’t want to automatically put RSJ in that conversation, but it’s not a bad matchup for him over the middle of the field if you wanted to subject yourself to that pain for whatever reason.

Kyle Rudolph: We visited this topic last week, but I think it’s important we readdress it after last week’s down performance for Rudolph. He ranks 18th among tight ends in target share, so once Cousins’ pass attempts start to come down, he’s going to be the one you notice the most. So, when you see Cousins throw “just” 37 attempts last week, Rudolph went down to just five targets, which amounted to just 5/41/0. He’s not a big-play guy, so he’s not going to have major blow-up-type games without multiple touchdowns. Knowing he plays in an efficient offense definitely helps, but in games we’re projecting Cousins for fewer pass attempts, Rudolph will need to score a touchdown in order to not bust. Prior to the 49ers last week, no team had thrown the ball more than 35 times against the Cardinals. They have allowed two tight end touchdowns this year, though they were able to keep George Kittle out of the end zone last week despite C.J. Beathard throwing the ball 54 times. Rudolph remains on the low-end TE1 radar this week, though you may want to consider shopping him in a trade.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins

Total: 45.5
Line: WAS by 1.5

QBs
Cam Newton: The good news is that Newton has thrown at least two touchdowns in the last three games. The bad news is that it’s now been three games with a declining completion rate and he’s thrown for 237 yards or less in 3-of-4 games this year. Still, Newton has shown a phenomenal floor this year, as he’s yet to score fewer than 16.4 fantasy points in a game. We just saw Washington exposed for what their secondary is against Drew Brees, allowing 26-of-29 passing for 363 yards and three touchdowns. Not that Newton is even close to Brees, but it just goes to show that Washington is far from an elite pass defense. Prior to that game, they’d allowed no more than 6.0 yards per attempt, leading most to believe they’d turned a corner. They may not be as bad as they looked on Monday night and they’re coming off games against Aaron Rodgers and Brees, so Newton should look a bit more getable. They haven’t allowed any running back top 61 rushing yards this season, so Newton will be the one who needs to move the ball for them. The pass-rush is one of the best things Washington has, but if Newton can escape the pressure, they’re in trouble. He’s in QB1 territory this week, though you shouldn’t expect a Brees-like performance out of him.

Alex Smith: What in the world happened to Smith last week? He looked like someone who was unsure about every throw he made, though it didn’t help that Josh Doctson was out and Paul Richardson had to leave the game. But who thought throwing to Jordan Reed just twice all game was a good plan? This is the second time in four games that Jay Gruden came up with a highly-questionable gameplan (other against the Colts). They’ll look to get back on track against the Panthers this week, who have now allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each of their last three games. Everything looked peachy last week against the Giants until they mounted a comeback that netted Eli Manning 326 yards and two touchdowns in his best game of the season. The issue with trusting Smith as anything more than a middling QB2 is the fact that his weapons just aren’t suited for him. He’s a risk-adverse quarterback playing with receivers who depend on jump-balls and gain little separation. Matt Ryan did run for two touchdowns against them, so Smith could add some value with his legs in this matchup, but we can’t simply forget about his performance last week, especially when there’s just six days in-between the games.

RBs
Christian McCaffrey: Despite seeing 63 carries through four games, McCaffrey has still yet to find the end zone. As a gauge, running backs averaged one touchdown per 38.3 carries in 2017, so McCaffrey has been on the wrong side of luck here. Does it change with Newton being the best goal-line back in football? Probably not, as McCaffrey averaged 58.5 carries per touchdown in 2017. It’s been rumored that Greg Olsen may come back this week, which would also dig into McCaffrey’s receiving totals, which have actually come down to earth the last two weeks where he’s seen eight targets in the two games combined. Washington has yet to allow a running back total more than 61 yards, though they have allowed a rushing touchdown in 3-of-4 games. Washington’s also done a fine job limiting the output of running backs through the air, as they’ve allowed just 162 yards through four games. McCaffrey is still a must-play high-end RB2, but this isn’t a week where you need to aggressively play him in DFS.

Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: It’s always tough watching your starting running back be completely eliminated from the game because his team fell behind, but this is the risk you knew you were taking when you put Peterson in your lineup. With that being said, it was a rough matchup against the Saints who’d yet to allow a 70-yard running back. The Panthers aren’t much easier, though, as they’ve allowed just one running back to hit the 70-yard mark. They have allowed a rather-high 4.88 yards per carry on the season, but knowing their front-seven is essentially the same unit as the one they had in 2017 that allowed just 3.87 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns on the year, you shouldn’t think this is a plus-matchup. Their opponents are averaging just 20.8 carries per game, which is the fifth-lowest number in the league. That’s because the Panthers opponents average just 58.0 plays per game, which is the third-lowest number in the league. Most will see that they’ve allowed at least one top-15 running back in each game this year, but if you look closer, you’ll also notice that they were all three-down backs who caught passes to help their cause (Ezekiel Elliott, Tevin Coleman, Giovani Bernard, and Saquon Barkley). Peterson likely has a 50/50 chance to score in this game, but if he doesn’t, you’ll be left disappointed. He’s a high-end RB3 in a week they’ll try to get him back on track. Thompson took a massive shot towards the end of the Saints game and should be considered questionable for this game on a short week, as he’s got a rib injury. If he does suit up, it’s hard to like him as anything more than an RB3 due to the limited play-count this week. Update: Both Peterson and Thompson are questionable for this game. Should Peterson miss, Kapri Bibbs is his direct backup, though he wouldn’t be a recommended play. Thompson doesn’t have a direct backup, but make sure to pay attention to the inactive lists Sunday morning.  

WRs
Devin Funchess: It was going to be a tough matchup for Funchess last week, who ran into Janoris Jenkins, one of the better shadow cornerbacks in the game. While some will wonder if Josh Norman will shadow him, the answer is no, as Norman stays put at LCB, which is where Funchess goes about 24 percent of the time. Instead, he’ll match-up with Quinton Dunbar, who has actually been better than Norman this year, though that’s not saying much. Dunbar has allowed 15-of-21 passing for 153 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage, though he is one of the bigger cornerbacks in the league at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds. He’ll be physical with Funchess, but he should still get enough opportunities to post WR3-type numbers, as there’ve been seven wide receivers to post double-digit PPR games against them.

D.J. Moore: The Panthers wide receiver room continues to get more crowded, as they had six different receivers run 10 or more routes in Week 5. Here’s the official count: Funchess 27, Torrey Smith 26, Jarius Wright 18, Moore 15, Curtis Samuel 10, Damiere Byrd 10. As you can see, it’s not quite time to trust Moore, as he’s just not getting enough playing-time just yet. He’ll get there at some point, but we also can’t ignore the fact that Olsen is going to be back and start taking targets away from the receivers. Moore needs to remain on fantasy benches until we see him on the field in a bigger role.

Jamison Crowder: If there was one spot on the field that Washington should’ve exploited last week, it was over the middle with Crowder, as the Saints haven’t been able to defend slot receivers all year. Sure, he ended up with the most receiving yards on the team (55), but that’s not saying much. He did see a season-high eight targets, so maybe it was Smith’s bad game leaking into his stat-line. The Panthers have also struggled defending slot receivers, as they’ve allowed Cole Beasley 7/73/0, Tyler Boyd 6/132/1, and Sterling Shepard 4/75/0. They all saw at least seven targets, but given the status of Doctson, Richardson, and Thompson, Crowder may be asked to play a bigger role. If Thompson’s rib injury turns out to be more than just a day-to-day thing, Crowder will become a must-play WR3, as he posted much better fantasy totals when Thompson was out of the lineup last year. In nine games with Thompson he averaged 9.4 PPR points, but in the six games without him he averaged 13.6 PPR points. Even if Thompson plays, Crowder is on the WR4 radar with what might be the best matchup on the field. Update: Crowder is listed as a game-time decision, so he needs to be moved down in projections. He’s never played well through injuries, so if you have another viable option, feel free to avoid Crowder. 

Paul Richardson: He went down with a knee injury during their Monday night loss over the Saints and was announced as doubtful to return, which doesn’t bode well for his chances to play against the Panthers. Even if he did play, it’s not a great matchup against James Bradberry, who has done a fine job defending opposing No. 1 receivers this year. I’d be searching for a replacement for Richardson this week. Update: They’re calling him a game-time decision, though you should have already found his replacement for this week. 

TEs
Greg Olsen: It seems like Olsen is going to return from his foot injury this week, though you should probably approach with caution. In his first game back from injury last year, he totaled just one catch for 10 yards on four targets, so they seemingly eased him back in. Pass catchers with foot injuries simply don’t work together and we’ve seen it time and time again. Olsen has said that he’ll need offseason surgery for the fracture in his foot, which tells me there’s still an issue and re-injury is very likely. Because of that, it’s going to be very difficult to recommend him until we see him make it through a full game. Washington hasn’t been a defense to target with tight ends this year, anyway. They’ve yet to allow a single tight end score more than 11.6 PPR points and they’ve played against Jack Doyle/Eric Ebron, Jimmy Graham, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Ben Watson. Keep Olsen on the bench if possible.

Jordan Reed: It was a tough matchup against the Saints last week, sure, but two targets?! I’m not sure what Jay Gruden was thinking when he set up the gameplan, which he had two weeks to prepare. The Panthers have struggled defending tight ends, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to them this year and that’s despite not playing any top-tier talents. They’ve allowed Tyler Eifert 6/74/0 and Austin Hooper 5/59/1, making Reed an enticing option, especially when you consider the fact that the top two wide receivers are hurt, as is the top pass-catching running back. It’s possible that newly-acquired Eric Reid helps make things a bit better, but he’s in a new system and has had two weeks to try and fit in. Reed needs to get back into lineups, as he’s likely a top-five tight end play this week. You can’t trust him in cash right now, as we need to see Smith get back on track before doing that.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 52.5
Line: CIN by 2.5

QBs
Ben Roethlisberger: Despite him currently sitting there as the No. 8 fantasy quarterback through five weeks, Roethlisberger has not played good football. He’s been struggling to complete his passes down the field, as his 30 percent completion rate on throws over 20 yards ranks as sixth-worst in the NFL behind only Foles, Tannehill, Taylor, Allen, and Manning. With the run-game providing some spark, it should hopefully open-up some play-action for the offense, something they haven’t done nearly enough of. They’ve run play-action just 10 percent of the time, which is the lowest mark in the league, despite Roethlisberger posting a 119.1 QB Rating on those plays. The Bengals got Vontaze Burfict back last week and it seemingly changed the entire outlook of their defense, as they’d allowed four straight quarterbacks to post at least 19.5 fantasy points before holding Ryan Tannehill to just 185 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions. You don’t want to use a game against the Dolphins to say that you’re back to being an elite defense or anything, but it was a step in the right direction. The last three times Roethlisberger has gone on the road to Cincinnati, he’s struggled to post elite fantasy numbers. Those games netted 290/2, 286/1, and 282/0. The odd part about the Bengals allowing so many fantasy points to quarterbacks is that Matt Ryan is the only quarterback to post more than 6.8 yards per attempt against them. Roethlisberger should be considered a low-end QB1 who is no sure thing away from home.

Andy Dalton: After throwing for six touchdowns and one interception the first two weeks, Dalton has come back down to earth the last three weeks, totaling six touchdowns and six interceptions. It obviously hurts that he lost John Ross and Tyler Eifert, but it’s also been tough playing without first-round pick Billy Price. They’re saying Price will be out at least one more week, so the pass-rush of the Steelers should have an easier time getting to Dalton who’s been sacked seven times the last three weeks. The last two times Dalton has played the Steelers at home, he’s totaled just 391 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception… in the two games combined. The Steelers had been beat up early in the year, but changed up their strategy last week, using Joe Haden as a shadow cornerback and had him follow Julio Jones, so you have to assume they’ll do the same with Green this week. Still, they’ve allowed at least 285 passing yards in 4-of-5 games and multiple touchdowns in 3-of-5 games. If Ross can get back on the field it would help, but I think Dalton’s loss of weapons has really affected his performance. He’s a middling QB2 in this game and one I’d be a tad hesitant to start.

RBs
James Conner: Knowing that his time is short-lived, Conner had what may have been his best game of the season last week. This is likely his last start for the Steelers this season, as Le’Veon Bell is set to return during their bye in Week 7. Since losing defensive tackle Ryan Glasgow during their Week 3 game against the Panthers, the Bengals have allowed 390 yards on 71 carries (5.49 yards per carry), though getting Vontaze Burfict back on the defense figures to help them in the long-run. They eased him in last week playing just 53 percent of the snaps, so we should continue to see that number rise. Still, if the Steelers want to win this game, they should try to pound the run against this weakened defensive front. Conner should be considered a high-end RB2 who has still seen plenty of work in the pass-game when the run-game isn’t working.

Joe Mixon: Despite missing two full games and part of another, Mixon currently sits as the No. 24 running back in PPR formats. He wasn’t eased back into the lineup at all and received 25 of the 27 touches out of the Bengals backfield last week. He’ll see the majority of touches once again this week, but the matchup is much tougher against the Steelers, who have been an underrated run defense to this point. Over the last three weeks they’ve yet to allow a running back more than 42 yards, which included Alex Collins, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman. On the year, they’ve allowed just 3.41 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns which has propelled them to the fifth-best defense against fantasy running backs. Even though Mixon is a phenomenal pass-catcher, the Steelers have done well against that, too. They’ve allowed just 27 catches for 104 yards through five games, though two of those receptions were for touchdowns. Because of all that, the Steelers have yet to allow a top-15 running back this year. While Mixon is a workhorse at home, it’s hard to see him finish as better than a high-end RB2 this week.

WRs
Antonio Brown: Despite all the talk about his decline, Brown has now scored at least one touchdown in 4-of-5 games. He’s also seen at least nine targets in every game, so his production shouldn’t be expected to drop-off much at all. While Roethlisberger is playing poorly, Brown is getting enough volume to keep him afloat. Knowing that his current season-high is 101 yards just tells you that he’s yet to hit the ceiling. The Bengals have played sides with William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick, so Brown isn’t likely to get shadow treatment in this game. Even if he did, it wouldn’t prevent him from playing well, as Jackson hasn’t lived up to his reputation through five weeks, allowing a 106.1 QB Rating when targeted. In their meetings last year, Brown totaled 4/65/1 and then 8/101/1, so even while Jackson was playing well, he did work. With how much Roethlisberger has struggled and knowing this game is on the road, I wouldn’t use Brown in cash lineups, but he’s still a solid WR1 in season-long.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: If there’s a matchup the Steelers want to exploit, it should be this one. Smith-Schuster will match-up with Darqueze Dennard in the slot, who had a career-year in 2017, but has returned to his usual self in 2018. He’s allowed a 73.3 percent catch-rate in his coverage along with 8.83 yards per target and he’s yet to play against an elite slot receiver. The best one he played was Mohamed Sanu who racked up six catches for 111 yards on nine targets. Week 5 was the first time all season Smith-Schuster saw less than eight targets, so it was more of an outlier due to Roethlisberger throwing the ball just 29 times. Smith-Schuster is a great play this week and one who I’d consider a high-end WR2. His price has risen to the point where it’s tough to consider him in cash lineups, especially with road-Roethlisberger.

A.J. Green: He’s now posted at least 112 yards or a touchdown in 4-of-5 games and currently sits as the No. 11 wide receiver in fantasy. He was benefiting from John Ross on the other side of the field because free safeties have to respect his speed, though Green still did work in a tough matchup against Xavien Howard last week. He’s seen at least eight targets in every game and it shouldn’t end here in this game. The Steelers have stuffed the run continuously, so they’ll need to use Green as the one to move the sticks. He’s likely to see the same shadow treatment that Julio Jones saw from Joe Haden last week, though that’s not really worrisome because Dalton actually targets his top receiver. Haden is clearly the Steelers best cornerback, allowing a 50 percent catch-rate in his coverage, though he hadn’t been shadowing No. 1 receivers until last week. But here’s the interesting part… Green has matched-up with Haden six times since 2013 and here were his totals in those games: 3/41/0, 4/53/0, 3/23/0, 5/49/0, 7/51/0, 2/7/0. While I’m not going to say that Green is someone to bench, there’s some bad history against Haden. Consider Green a high-end WR2 this week rather than the elite WR1 he’s been and limit your DFS exposure. It does help that Bill Lazor has moved him into the slot to evade some of the tougher cornerbacks throughout the season, which gives more hope than usual.

Tyler Boyd: After being touted as a must-play by many, we talked about his matchup being a tough one if Reshad Jones returned for the Dolphins, which he did. Don’t think it was a bad performance by Boyd, as Minkah Fitzpatrick has been the absolute real deal. Mike Hilton returned to the Steelers lineup last week, which means Boyd has another tough matchup on deck, though the Steelers do play a lot of zone, which should allow Boyd to find some holes. With Green matched-up with Haden (who he’s struggled against in his career), Dalton has to go somewhere and considering Boyd is tied for the team-lead in targets (43), he should get plenty of opportunities. He should be considered a high-end WR4 this week and one who should present a high floor knowing the Steelers have allowed nine different wide receivers 11.2 or more PPR points.

John Ross: It’s unknown if Ross will play at the time of me writing this, though I’ll put an update at the end of this paragraph on Saturday morning, so make sure to check back. He suffered a groin injury in Week 4 that kept him out of practice all week, so it seems unlikely he was even close to playing. Ross’ matchup would be a good one, as the Steelers are apparently set to move forward with Joe Haden covering the opposing No. 1 receiver, which would be Green, while Artie Burns would take Ross. With the way Burns has played this year, he’s actually lost playing time to Coty Sensabaugh, who has been splitting time with him. The duo has allowed 24/368/4 on 35 targets, so they’ve both been pretty bad, though Sensabaugh has been better. Whatever the case, neither of them are equipped to handle Ross’ talent if he’s actually healthy. If he’s practicing, he should be considered as a solid bye week WR5, though he comes with plenty of bust potential. Update: Ross is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game after practicing in a limited fashion throughout the week. Knowing he’s like a Ferrari who may not run right if one thing is wrong, it’s best to give him a week to ensure he’s healthy. 

TEs
Vance McDonald: Just when we were all ready to jump on the Vance train, the Steelers target him twice against an extremely beatable Falcons defense. It was the first time McDonald has seen less than five targets, so we shouldn’t overreact in a game where Roethlisberger threw the ball just 29 times. McDonald did lead the tight ends in routes run, so there’s that, but Jesse James continues to be involved. Against the Bengals, you should consider getting back to streaming McDonald, as they’ve allowed three touchdowns to the position this year, which went to Eric Ebron, Mark Andrews, and Logan Paulsen. You can actually make the case that all of them are backup tight ends, so it’s possible that James trolls us again, but McDonald is still the preferred play of the two. He should be considered a high-end TE2 who’s no sure thing, obviously.

C.J. Uzomah: It was Uzomah who got the start for the injured Tyler Eifert, as we expected last week. He ran 26 routes while Tyler Kroft ran just nine of them before leaving the game with a foot injury. This will be Uzomah’s job against the Steelers who have struggled more than all but one team (Bucs) against tight ends. They’ve now allowed five tight ends to post double-digit PPR days against them, all of which have come in the last four weeks. The reason they’ve struggled is because of the absence of Morgan Burnett, who is a utility safety who does a great job with tight ends. He’s been out the last three weeks with a groin injury and was listed as doubtful for the Week 5 game, so he’s no sure thing to play this week, either. If he’s out again, Uzomah should be considered a low-end TE1 who should be a solid streamer. If Burnett plays, it would knock Uzomah down into TE2 territory, though. Update: Both Burnett and Kroft are out for this game, making Uzomah a solid streaming option.