Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins

Total: 42.5
Line: CHI by 3.0

QBs
Mitch Trubisky: Coming off his six-touchdown performance against the Bucs, Trubisky likely got back some much-needed confidence, as he was extremely tense in the first few games, leading him to miss some easy throws. There’s no disguising it, he’s been brutal at times, while being brilliant at others, making him a maddening fantasy quarterback. The Dolphins defense has been much better than expected, as they’ve allowed more than one passing touchdown just one time this year, and that was to one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, Tom Brady. They also got Reshad Jones back from injury last week and were able to hold the hot Andy Dalton to just 248 yards and one touchdown. Still, even Brady was only able to total 19.0 fantasy points and finish as the No. 16 quarterback on the week. We’ve now seen the Dolphins hold 4-of-5 quarterbacks outside the top-20 performers on the week. They were without pass-rusher Cameron Wake last week (listed as doubtful for this week), which would help you feel a bit more comfortable with Trubisky, but he’s a low-end QB2 regardless in a game that’s not expected to generate a whole bunch of points.

Ryan Tannehill: After starting the year with seven touchdowns and two interceptions over the first three games, Tannehill has entered complete meltdown-mode. Over the last two weeks against the Bengals and Patriots, he’s completed just 31-of-55 passes (56.4 percent) for 285 yards (5.18 yards per attempt) with one touchdown and three interceptions. Heck, he was benched for Brock Osweiler in one of the games. To know that he may not be without his starting left tackle against the Bears is a problem, as Laremy Tunsil suffered a concussion against the Bengals last week (who is now listed as questionable). His replacement is Sam Young, a 31-year-old veteran who isn’t good at blocking. Despite playing just 26-of-64 snaps in relief of Tunsil last week, he allowed two quarterback hurries and two quarterback hits. Of the 62 tackles that PFF graded, he received the second-worst grade in Week 5. To know that he’ll see a mixture of Leonard Floyd and Khalil Mack is a real problem. Since allowing Aaron Rodgers to beat them in the second half, the Bears have netted these finishes to quarterbacks: Russell Wilson (QB22), Sam Bradford (QB28), and the combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick/Jameis Winston (QB25). It’s safe to say you don’t want to use Tannehill this week.

RBs
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: In an interview earlier this week, Matt Nagy insinuated that the reason Cohen received more work than Howard in Week 4 was gameplan-specific. We’ll find out this week, as the Dolphins have seen three straight running backs total at least 19 carries against them. The Bears need to get Howard going in order to complement the defense, and this is a week for them to do that. Through five weeks, the Dolphins have allowed six running backs score at least 17.2 PPR points against them, including three running backs with 20-plus point performances. They haven’t been beaten in just one way, either, as they’ve allowed the seventh-most rushing yards, sixth-most rushing touchdowns, seventh-most receiving yards, and the most receiving touchdowns to running backs. There’s little reason to doubt Howard this week, who should be fresh coming off the bye week. He should be played as an RB1 who can be considered for cash-games. Cohen obviously deserves consideration after he saw a season-high 20 touches against the Bucs. Even in the Week 3 game, he saw eight touches, so he’s in the Austin Ekeler territory of running backs, which have value. Cohen should be considered a low-end RB3 this week who is somewhat gamescript-proof, though he’s not going to hit 20 touches again.

Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: It appears this timeshare isn’t going away any time soon, as Gore now has 47 carries on the season, while Drake has just 39 of them. We saw Drake utilized more in the passing-game last week when he totaled 11 targets, but his previous season-high was just four targets, so it’s possible that it was an outlier. Oddly enough, the Bears defense has allowed just 13 receptions for 89 yards to opposing running backs, both of which are the lowest in the NFL. It’s odd because you’d think a quarterback would need to get the ball out of his hands quickly in order to avoid their pass-rush. It’s possible that they haven’t had time to check-down unless it’s a designed screen, which the Dolphins should try to do with their deficiencies on the offensive line. The Bears have yet to allow a running back more than 47 yards on the ground and have yet to allow a rushing touchdown, making Drake a scary RB4 play who’ll need to get it done through the air. Gore is just a boring RB4/5-type who’ll likely have something like 8-10 carries for 30-40 yards.

WRs
Allen Robinson: You’d think in a game where the Bears threw six touchdowns that Robinson would’ve had a massive fantasy game, but he walked away with just 23 yards and a touchdown. It’s good in the grand scheme of things, as teams will start to be a bit more concerned about Gabriel, though this week will be another tough one for Robinson. He’s going to see Xavien Howard in coverage, a cornerback who’s shadowed some tough receivers this year. Here’s what he’s allowed to them: A.J. Green (6/112/0), Amari Cooper (2/17/0), Robby Anderson (3/27/0), and Corey Davis (6/62/0). Knowing that Robinson doesn’t have a game with more than 83 yards this year, it’s tough to say he’s anything more than a mediocre WR3 in a game where the Bears are likely to run the ball a lot. Some will point to the slot numbers they’ve allowed, but that was when Reshad Jones was out of the lineup and they were forced to move Minkah Fitzpatrick to safety.

Taylor Gabriel: I tried to warn you guys about Gabriel prior to the Week 4 game, as he’s been seeing plenty of targets and it was only a matter of time before he broke a long play. Not only did he break one long play, but he broke a few on his way to 7/104/2 against the Bucs before the Bears bye week. He’s now seen 24 targets over the last three games, making him a legitimate fantasy option. While Robinson draws Xavien Howard in coverage, Gabriel will see a lot of either Bobby McCain (who injured his knee in Week 4 and missed last week) or Torry McTyer, who has seen just 10 career targets in coverage, allowing eight catches for 129 yards on them. He’s not slow, though, so it’s not as if Gabriel can just run by him like he did Carlton Davis in Week 4. If McCain comes back, it may actually be an upgrade for Gabriel, as McCain runs a 4.51 40-yard yard dash. You don’t want to rely on Gabriel for guaranteed production as anything more than a high-end WR5, but with his recent target share, he’s worth a flier with bye weeks here.

Kenny Stills: We’re now five weeks into the season and Stills has seen 24 targets. I don’t need to remind you that Parker has been out for 4-of-5 games, which should’ve given Stills a bit bigger of a role, right? Not so much. The Bears cornerback he’ll see most in Week 6 is likely Prince Amukamara, though Stills does move all over the formation, playing 38 percent of his snaps at LWR, 33 percent at RWR, and 29 percent of the time he’s in the slot. Amukamara missed Week 4 with a hamstring injury and allowed rookie Kevin Toliver take the field, who did a respectable job covering Mike Evans in the Bears win. Stills is someone who needs to make it happen down the field with how few of opportunities he’s getting and it’s very unlikely he has time to work downfield this week, as the Bears pass-rush will be too much for the Dolphins offensive line. Stills is just a low-end WR4 this week and not one you should feel you have to start.

DeVante Parker: It seemed like he’d play last week, but ultimately it was a no-go for the fourth time in five weeks. If he returns, he’ll come back to a matchup with Kyle Fuller, which isn’t as bad as some think. Fuller has allowed 158 yards and two touchdowns on just 22 targets in coverage this year. He’s not great when it comes to tracking the ball, which is something Parker and Tannehill should be able to take advantage of. But knowing that he’s been out of the picture for so long, it’s unlikely that the stingy Adam Gase gives him a large pie of the gameplan, as the Dolphins are reportedly being shopped around to other teams. Who knows, maybe they showcase him for a trade? If he practices in full all week and is a sure thing to play, Parker should be considered a boom/bust WR5 who might just lead them in targets (it wouldn’t take much). Update: Parker practiced all week so it looks as if he’ll play, though they’ve still listed him as questionable. 

TEs
Trey Burton: I cannot tell you how many “should I drop Burton” questions come across my timeline on a week-to-week basis, but I feel the need to remind everyone that the tight end position is ugly. Despite already getting his bye out of the way, Burton is the No. 11 tight end on the season. No, don’t drop him. The Dolphins have done a great job with tight ends to this point, holding every one of them to 52 yards or less, which has included Delanie Walker, Jared Cook, and Rob Gronkowski. Burton has run 45 percent of his routes from the slot, which is where the Dolphins would have safety Reshad Jones come down and defend him. Jones hasn’t been exceptional in coverage over the last two years, allowing 34-of-48 passing for 458 yards and six touchdowns in that time, though he’s also had four interceptions. Burton is going to be a bigger part of the Bears offense, but the Dolphins aren’t a team who’s appealing enough for a cash-game lineup. He should still be considered a low-end TE1 in season-long leagues, as he’s likely to see at least five targets and that’s hard to find at the position.

Mike Gesicki: It hasn’t been the most promising start to Gesicki’s career, as he’s failed to top 31 yards or score a touchdown during the first five games. He did see a season-high five targets last week, though they only netted 26 yards against the Bengals. He’s also seen escalating pass routes the last four weeks, topping out at 23 in Week 5, which got him inside the top-20 tight ends. It helps that A.J. Derby was out, as he’s going to cut into that if he returns. The issue is that the Bears have one of the better safety duos in the league and have some very athletic linebackers as well. With that said, they’ve now allowed a tight end touchdown in each of their last three games despite not allowing any of them more than 42 yards. Gesicki is going to be a player in this league at some point, though Tannehill’s struggles aren’t going to help. He should be considered a middling TE2 who is on the rise in the tight end ranks.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets

Total: 45.0
Line: NYJ by 2.5

QBs
Andrew Luck: It was tough to watch Luck continually throw to under-average wide receivers last week while trying to compete against Tom Brady. While Luck may have lost some of his arm on the long ball, his touch looks like vintage Luck from before the shoulder injury. He’s not going to be the player who holds this team back, though his offensive line is not doing so good. Not only has he been missing left tackle Anthony Costanzo all year, but he’s also been missing starting right tackle Joe Haeg since the middle of Week 3, and he is now losing another piece as right guard Matt Slauson broke two vertebrae in his spine during the loss to the Patriots. The Jets pass-rush should be able to get to him, as they have the 12th-highest sack rate in the NFL through five weeks, including 14 sacks in their last four games. It appears that Hilton is set to miss another week, which will make Luck’s life difficult again. The Jets secondary will be without Trumaine Johnson and maybe Buster Skrine, but will his receivers be able to step-up? He’s just a mid-to-high end QB2 this week who’s missing his best players.

Sam Darnold: It was good to see Darnold continue to open-up the offense last week, as he averaged 10.4 intended air yards per target, which ranked fifth among quarterbacks. The prior week he was at 10.7 yards, so he’s starting to move away from some of his check-down ways he had in Weeks 1-3. The Colts were extremely shorthanded on defense last week, though they should be getting some of their defenders back. They were missing two of their top cornerbacks in Kenny Moore and Nate Hairston, and were also missing stud inside linebacker Darius Leonard. With the injuries piling up, they’ve allowed top-six performances to both Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady the last two weeks. Prior to that, they hadn’t allowed a top-15 performance, so it’s tough to say how you should approach Darnold without knowing the full picture of the defense he’s facing, which will come later in the week. If the Colts are healthy, Darnold is just a low-end QB2, whereas if they’re missing key players once again, he moves into the mid-tier QB2 range as someone who can be a last-ditch effort streaming option.

RBs
Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins: We knew that Hines would have a big role last week, so it was good to see him produce. The Colts definitely don’t want him carrying the ball 15 times as he did against the Patriots, but with Mack still not practicing in full, there’s no guarantee he’s going to play this week. The Jets have allowed 34 receptions to running backs through five games, which ranks as the seventh-most in the league, though they’ve allowed just 260 yards and one touchdown on them. They’ve allowed just three running backs to hit more than 11.1 PPR points and two of them (T.J. Yeldon, Carlos Hyde) totaled at least 18 carries, while the other one (Kenyan Drake) scored. Hines isn’t going to hit 18 carries and if he scores, it’s likely to be through the air, as the offensive line is crumbling and is now down to just two healthy starters. Hines is the only one you can truly consider, as he’s seeing James White-type volume out of the backfield with 35 targets on the season. He’s a low-upside RB3 this week, but one who should have somewhat of a stable floor. It’s my belief they’re holding out Mack until he’s 100 percent so they can just let him lose, though the Jets have allowed sub-3.8 yards per carry this year and isn’t the time to predict a breakout. Even if he plays, he’s just a boom/bust RB4 option, as he does possess homerun ability. If Mack is out, Wilkins doesn’t have that same homerun ability, so he’s more of an RB5 who’s likely to total something like 20-40 yards. Update: Mack is practicing in-full and appears to be ready to go this week. 

Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell: Here we go again… I’ll apologize to each of you every other week, as apparently Crowell has turned into the Amari Cooper of running backs. He’s up-and-down, but he’s looked much better than I’ve seen him. Once he gets into the open-field, he’s showing tremendous burst, so the question is… can the line create him holes to get into the open-field against the Colts? The Colts had been playing the run very well prior to losing Darius Leonard last week, though he’s expected back this week. With him in the lineup, they’ve allowed 337 yards on 93 carries (3.62 yards per carry) with two touchdowns through four games. So, it’s not a great matchup, but it’s also not bad, as there’ve been five running backs who’ve been able to finish as top-15 options. A large part of that is because they’ve struggled against the pass, allowing 39 receptions for 330 yards and a touchdown through the air, good enough for the fourth-most PPR points. Powell has doubled-up Crowell in targets (16 to 8), so it’s possible that Powell is worth more than some think. Consider Crowell a low-end RB2 while Powell is good enough for a low-end RB3 start. Update: Crowell missed practice all the way up until Friday where he got in limited work, so they’ve listed him as questionable with an ankle injury. You may want to lower him down in the projections just a bit, while Powell gets a bump. Should Crowell miss the game, Powell becomes a must-play RB2.

WRs
Ryan Grant: Now that it seems likely Hilton’s out another week, Grant will be the “top option” at wide receiver for Luck. Over the last two weeks, here’s the target distribution (minus Hilton): Rogers 22, Zach Pascal 17, Grant 16, Marcus Johnson 5. This doesn’t have a good look for Grant, does it? Have I mentioned that he’s dropped two passes the last two weeks? He gets a break this week, though, as top cornerback Trumaine Johnson is out for the Jets, which means he’ll draw 2015 seventh-round pick Darryl Roberts in coverage. He’s a career backup who’s struggled this year allowing 10-of-13 passing for 96 yards and a touchdown. Grant is likely the most talented wide receiver of the bunch, but Rogers also has a great matchup in the slot. Grant is likely a low-upside WR4 once again who presents a solid floor in PPR leagues.

Chester Rogers: I’m not a huge believer in Rogers’ skillset, but he’s getting tons of opportunity and has a great matchup. Not only is Buster Skrine likely the worst slot cornerback in the league, but he’s in the concussion protocol, which means Rogers might see his backup Parry Nickerson, this year’s sixth-round pick who has allowed 10-of-11 passing for 131 yards in relief of Skrine. If targeted, he’s going to allow production and fortunately Luck has targeted him 22 times the last two weeks in what were tougher matchups. There have been seven wide receivers who’ve totaled at least five receptions against the Jets and Rogers is likely next. He’s worth WR4 consideration in PPR leagues and is in the WR4/5 conversation for standard formats.

Quincy Enunwa: It was brutal to see Enunwa shifted out of the slot role last week, but he was, playing just 31.6 percent of his snaps there. Meanwhile Jermaine Kearse ran 93 percent of his routes in the slot, a role he played just over 50 percent of the time last year. Let’s hope that the Jets were just trying to get Enunwa out of Chris Harris Jr’s coverage because he’s a great slot cornerback. It seems likely, however, that Kearse may be the primary slot man, which would affect Enunwa’s production. Because of that, we don’t know who he’ll primarily match-up with, though we also don’t know which Colts cornerbacks will be available, as they were missing two of their top three last week. Enunwa has seen at least five targets in every game, but has now connected on just eight of the last 21 targets for 123 yards. He’s just a low-end WR4 until we know what his role is going forward.

Robby Anderson: We talked about the brutal start to Anderson’s schedule last week, so it was good to see him produce in his first plus-matchup of the year. He’s got another one against the Colts this week. They were missing Nate Hairston last week and it’s unknown if he’ll be available for this game, though it doesn’t matter much because he’s not all that good. Even before the Patriots game, with Hairston, they’d allowed three wide receivers to post at least 92 yards. With Enunwa playing on the perimeter a bit more, we could see Anderson emerge as his favorite target in this matchup. He’s worth putting in your lineup as a high-end WR4 this week who comes with plenty of upside.

TEs
Eric Ebron: It seems as if Jack Doyle might be done playing football forever, so we’ll continue to play Ebron in every matchup. I’m obviously kidding, but this would be his fourth-straight missed game. In the three games he’s been out, Ebron has totaled 36 targets. This might be the toughest matchup he’s had though, as the Jets have yet to allow a tight end more than 36 yards, though they’ve also yet to face a tight end who’s seen more than four targets. They have had Jamal Adams covering tight ends most of the time and it’s been going well, as he’s allowed just 0.55 yards per covered snap, while not allowing a touchdown. Ebron is still in the TE1 ranks because of the scarcity of targets at the position, but this isn’t a week where he’s a must-play in DFS or anything.

Chris Herndon: The Jets leading tight end has 60 yards on the season, and it’s not even Herndon who has played nearly twice the snaps than him. Eric Tomlinson leads them in yards, but his 42 routes run in five games isn’t going to cut it. The Colts have allowed three top-12 tight ends, but there’s no one on this team you should be trusting at tight end.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

Total: 52.5
Line: LAR by 7.0

QBs
Jared Goff: There’s a lot of variables around this game, as we’re not going to have clarity until later in the week whether or not Cooks and Kupp will be available, as they’re both in the concussion protocol. Goff looked a bit lost without them last week (both played about half the game), throwing two interceptions against the depleted Seahawks, which matched his season total coming into that game. It’d definitely be nice to get them back against the Broncos, as they aren’t the matchup everyone thinks they are. Everyone ties Broncos to tough defense, but they’ve now allowed 34 passing touchdowns over their last 21 games, which is a rather large sample size. The only teams who’ve allowed more in that timespan are the Packers, Giants, Browns, Jets, Texans, 49ers. Those aren’t teams you associate with the Broncos, right? Well, on top of that, they just lost starting cornerback Adam Jones last week to a leg injury. On passes that have traveled over 20 yards, they’ve allowed the most yardage and touchdowns in the NFL, so getting Cooks back would be huge. If he’s got his wide receivers, Goff is a must-play QB1. If without them, he’s more of a high-end QB2 who should still be able to post a high floor. The worst fantasy performance against the Broncos this year was 277 yards and one touchdown.

Case Keenum: It was good to see Keenum take advantage of a matchup with the Jets who were down two of three starting cornerbacks, though he did extend his interception streak to five games. The Rams defense hasn’t been invincible the last few weeks, either, as they’ve now allowed three straight top-15 performances, though they were to Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson. That all coincided with the injury to Aqib Talib, as Sam Shields has struggled in coverage, as has Marcus Peters. They’ve allowed six touchdowns on the last 71 pass attempts against them, while Keenum has thrown just two touchdowns on his last 153 attempts, so something has to give, right? You likely have better options than Keenum on your waiver wire, but the matchup may not have been as bad as initially thought. Still, he’s in the low-end QB2 conversation.

RBs
Todd Gurley: The start to the season for Gurley has been nothing short of historic. Over his last eight regular season games, here are his totals: 157 carries, 781 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 35 receptions, 455 receiving yards, 5 receiving touchdowns. For the sake of it, his 16-game pace would be 1,562 rushing yards, 24 rushing touchdowns, 910 receiving yards, and 10 receiving touchdowns. That would amount to 521.2 PPR points, which is 40 points more than the current record that LaDanian Tomlinson owns for his magical 2006 season. The Broncos have had an elite run defense the last few years, but they’ve severely slipped over the last two weeks, allowing Isaiah Crowell, Bilal Powell, and Kareem Hunt to combine for 439 yards on 54 carries (8.13 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. They’ve allowed at least one rushing touchdown in each of their last four games, so there’s seemingly nothing too scary about this matchup. The concern is that the Rams offense doesn’t run as smooth without Cooks and Kupp, though Gurley is still an elite RB1 regardless.

Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay: The timeshare was supposed to go more in favor of Freeman last week, no? I mean, that’s what Vance Joseph said, right? Well, that led him to get a season-low eight touches in their Week 6 loss to the Jets. It was nice to see him get four targets, as he’d totaled just two through the first four games, so maybe that’s where he’ll gain some value? The Rams front-seven hasn’t been a stellar unit this year, allowing 4.90 yards per carry, though teams have only run the ball 98 times against them, which ranks as the ninth-lowest in the league. It’s typically because the Rams get out in front and teams simply abandon the run. If the Rams offense is missing key components, it’s possible they don’t run away with this game, though they are clearly still the favorite. They’ve somehow allowed just the sixth-fewest amount of receiving yards to running backs as well, so it’s clear that the Broncos need to keep this game close for their running backs to have much value. There’s been no top-12 performances allowed against them this year, making both of them risky RB3’s. Lindsay has had the safer workload to this point, but if they’re involving both Freeman and Devontae Booker in the passing-game, it’s hurt his value. It’s unlikely we see any of them give you week-winning performances.

WRs
Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp: The tough part about writing these games up prior to the weekend is that we have no idea whether or not some will play. Both Cooks and Kupp were forced to leave the game against the Seahawks due to concussions, though the hit Cooks took looked much worse. I don’t believe there’s different levels to concussions, but he was completely out for a moment. If he were to play, he’d have a great matchup with the Broncos defense that’s allowed the most touchdowns and yards on passes that have traveled over 20 yards in the air. They’re also likely to be without Adam Jones, as he suffered a leg injury and wasn’t available for Monday’s practice. If he were forced to miss the game, the Broncos would be forced to move Chris Harris Jr. to the perimeter and then have third-round pick Isaac Yiadom come onto the field in three-wide sets, which the Rams are almost exclusive with, which means Harris Jr. may just stay in the slot. That would obviously have a negative impact on Kupp’s value, as Harris Jr. is the real deal. If Kupp suits up, he’s just a mediocre WR3 in this matchup and not one I’d be excited about. Cooks is the one who has the best matchup here and he’d be a high-end WR2 if he was available for this game. Update: Both Cooks and Kupp have been cleared to play, so start them as you normally would. 

Robert Woods: There’s so much red tape in this matchup that we’ve yet to see behind, but Woods might be the receiver with the most predictability. He’ll see Bradley Roby in coverage most of the day, the cornerback they expected to fill Aqib Talib‘s shoes, though he’s failed miserably. He’s now allowed a massive 313 yards and three touchdowns on 31 targets in coverage. There’s been just six cornerbacks who’ve allowed more yardage than him, and five of them have seen more targets. Woods stepped up for Goff last week, posting 5/92/0 through the air and added another 53 yards on the ground. He needs to be in all lineups as a low-end WR2 who should be extremely safe.

Emmanuel Sanders: He had the best matchup on the field last week and he did well (9/72/0) but failing to score hurt his overall performance. It’s not nearly as good of a matchup this week, as Nickell Robey-Coleman might be the Rams best cornerback at this point in time. He’s allowing a high catch-rate in his coverage (73.9 percent), but he’s keeping things in front of him, as evidenced by the 9.2 yards per reception. They do play a lot of zone, though, and that’s where the Rams have been burned. Robey-Coleman has allowed a 101.2 QB Rating while in zone, but has allowed just a 68.8 QB Rating while in zone. Sanders is someone who’s played much better against man coverage this year, so maybe this matchup doesn’t appeal to him. He’s still getting the majority of targets, so trot him out there as a high-end WR3.

Demaryius Thomas: After seeing 21 targets the first two weeks, Thomas has started to see diminishing targets the last three weeks, as he’s averaged 6.0 targets per game, which is pretty close to what Sutton is averaging on the season (5.2 per game). Thomas finally had a game with more than 63 yards and he scored a touchdown, albeit in garbage time. He’s going to see the most of Marcus Peters in coverage this week, who has struggled mightily with his new team, allowing 280 yards and five touchdowns on 25 targets in coverage. Think about that for a second, that’s a touchdown every five targets and over 11.0 yards per target. Does that mean Thomas is a must-play? Not really, as he just did well against a backup for the Jets. That’s not going to instill confidence in anyone, especially when you consider his shrinking target volume. Some may say Peters is still good, but he’s looked simply lost in coverage the last few games. Because of that, Thomas can be plugged in as a WR3 in what appears to be a better matchup.

Courtland Sutton: As mentioned in Thomas’ paragraph, Sutton is creeping on him in targets, averaging 5.2 on the year, including six targets in each of the last two games. That’s exactly what Thomas has averaged over his last three games. It’s a small sample size, but also something we’ll pay attention to. While Thomas gets the underachieving Peters, Sutton will get the backup Troy Hill, who seemingly will take over for the incompetent Sam Shields who was torched for 162 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. Hill has been a career backup who’s allowed a 111.3 QB Rating in his coverage, so it’s not even a guarantee he’s better than Shields was. Sutton has sleeper appeal in this matchup, so he can be considered an upside WR4/5 option. He’s seen just as many red zone targets (4) as both Thomas and Sanders this season.

TEs
Tyler Higbee/Gerald Everett: Some will be wondering if this is the week the Rams decide to use their tight ends and it’s possible depending on the status of Cooks and Kupp. In their win over the Seahawks, the two combined for six targets, which is a huge step in the right direction considering they’d combined for just 11 targets in the first four games. The Broncos have also been quite terrible against tight ends, allowing five different tight ends to total 49 or more yards, including both Travis Kelce and Will Dissly to score more than 19.0 PPR points. The Broncos also added safety Darian Stewart to the injury report on Wednesday with a foot injury, so it could be another upgrade. If Cooks and/or Kupp is out for this game, we may have some production out of these two. The issue is who to trust, as Higbee has ran almost twice the routes (83-49) as Everett, but has just one more target. If you’re looking for a dart throw at tight end, it’d likely be Everett for me, as he’s got the big-play potential, though Higbee is likely safer. If Cooks and Kupp play (they are), they’re nothing better than a hail mary (as they’ve been all year).

Jeff Heuerman: With Jake Butt on injured reserve the last two weeks, it’s been Heuerman leading the Broncos tight ends in routes (56), though he’s sharing some time with Matt LaCosse (25). The Rams have been a team who can be attacked via the tight end position, as their linebackers have been pretty mediocre, as has the combination of safeties John Johnson/Marqui Christian. They’ve allowed at least three catches and 43 yards to four tight ends this year, including the nine-catch, 180-yard eruption from Jared Cook in Week 1. The only game Heuerman saw more than four targets was the game against the Chiefs, so he’s far from a sure thing, especially when you consider the potential emergence of Sutton in the red zone. He’s just a hail-mary TE2, but one with a better matchup than most in his range.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans

Total: 41.0
Line: BAL by 2.5

QBs
Joe Flacco: After losing to the Browns last week, the Ravens will travel to Tennessee to play the Titans, who are also coming off a bad loss to the Bills. After a hot start where he threw eight touchdowns in the first four games, Flacco didn’t look particularly good during their Week 5 loss to the Browns where he completed just 51.8 percent of his passes, his lowest percentage since Week 3 of last year against Jacksonville. The Titans have been a bit Jeckyl and Hyde in the secondary, as they’ve allowed Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson, and Carson Wentz to each throw for two touchdowns, but held Blake Bortles and Josh Allen touchdown-less. Okay, maybe that makes sense. Oddly enough, both the Bortles and Allen games were on the road. They’ll return home here in what should be an extremely low scoring game, as the Ravens defense has allowed more than 14 points just once (their 15.4 points per game allowed is the best in the NFL), and the Titans defense has allowed 17.2 points per game, which ranks fourth in the NFL. There’s likely an in-between for the Titans defense, and in reality, Flacco is in-between the two groups of quarterbacks they’ve played. He should be able to get into 2QB startability this week, but I wouldn’t stream him in 1QB leagues.

Marcus Mariota: It was back to more of the same Mariota last week, as he was able to complete just 14-of-26 passes for 129 yards against the Bills, while failing to throw a single touchdown. He’s now scored less than 10 fantasy points in 3-of-4 games this year with the lone exception coming against the Eagles, who have struggled against everyone. So why in the world should we believe he’ll put it together against the Ravens defense that’s allowed more than 14 points just once all season? Outside of that Thursday night game where they didn’t show up, the Ravens defense has allowed just two passing touchdowns in the other four games. They got cornerback Jimmy Smith back on defense last week, which should only bolster their cornerback unit, though they are lacking depth behind the starters right now. Mariota has now averaged just 205.7 passing yards per game with 15 touchdowns and 19 interceptions in his last 19 games, which is a pretty large sample size. Against the defense that’s allowed a league-low 5.9 yards per attempt, feel free to simply avoid Mariota this week.

RBs
Alex Collins and Javorius Allen: Despite it being a close game throughout, the Ravens chose to give Collins just 12 carries while Flacco dropped back and passed the ball 56 times? It was odd to say the least, especially when you consider that Collins averaged a rock-solid 4.9 yards per carry on those carries. It seemingly had nothing to do with his fumble the previous week, either, as Allen saw just eight carries himself. Against the Titans, it’s going to be much tougher to find fantasy points on the ground, as they’re once again inside the top-five teams against the run. They’re one of just two teams (Bears the other) who have yet to allow a rushing touchdown. They’ve also allowed just one running back to eclipse 23 receiving yards, so it’s not as if they can be attacked a different way. The only way to fantasy production for Collins this week is to find the end zone, which is something that’s happened just four times in the last 20 Titans games. He’s just a mediocre RB3, though it’s unlikely you’ve got another running back who’s going to get almost all the goal-line work and 10-15 carries. Allen isn’t exactly appealing either, though he’s started to carve out the clear pass-catching role he had early last year, as he’s nearly doubled the number of targets that Collins has. Allen is just a mediocre RB4 who is better in PPR formats.

Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis: Well, we’ve now reached Defcon 5 with Henry after he finished as the RB48 against the Bills last week. He’s not startable in any matchup until we see things change, and it’s not likely they will in Week 6 against the Ravens, who have one of the best front-sevens in all of football. They’ve allowed just 3.73 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown on the season and it’s not as if volume can make up for the low efficiency, as their opponents averaged just 22.6 attempts per game, which ranks as the seventh-lowest in the NFL. Henry has now totaled just 19 carries over the last two games combined and he’s non-existent in the passing-game, as he has just five targets all season. Lewis has out-snapped him 82-49 over the last two weeks, though it may not even help him in this matchup. Despite running backs seeing 35 targets against the Ravens, they’ve allowed just 18 receptions for 102 yards and no touchdowns. They’ve still yet to allow a top-24 running back and we’re essentially one-third the way through the season. Lewis should be considered a high-end RB4 who is playing a bigger role while Henry is in the RB5 range who needs to break a long run to do anything. His longest run this season is just 14 yards.

WRs
John Brown: The good news is that Brown saw a season-high 14 targets last week, but the issue is that he caught just four of them for 58 yards, leading to his lowest-scoring fantasy game this year. He still appears as to be the favorite of Flacco and the Titans don’t run shadow coverage, so Brown will see a mix of both Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler in coverage. The duo has allowed four 100-yard receivers though five games, and the two highest scoring players have been speed demons (Kenny Stills and Will Fuller). We all know Brown is the downfield threat in the offense as he’s averaging a league-high 20.1 air yards per target, so look for them to attack the Titans down the field with him. You should consider Brown a high-end WR3 for this game who should bounce back.

Michael Crabtree: He saw a season-high 12 targets against the Browns, though they netted just six catches for 66 yards, as the entire passing-game did not appear in-sync. He’s still yet to finish with more than 66 yards in a game despite having more targets than Brown on the season. His 5.4 yards per target is behind all of Brown, Snead, and Chris Moore, so it’s clear him and Flacco aren’t on the same page. Crabtree will primarily see Malcolm Butler in coverage, who has struggled with bigger, physical receivers this year, as he allowed a combination of 15/282/3 in his coverage against the combination of DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller and Alshon Jeffery. It’s not a matchup that Flacco should be scared to attack, though Crabtree’s production to this point doesn’t exactly instill you with confidence as a fantasy player. Still, the matchup deserves some consideration, making him a high-end WR4 who might get his first touchdown since Week 1.

Willie Snead: He’s been a pleasant surprise for those who’ve needed a high-floor wide receiver for bye weeks. He’s now totaled at least 10.4 PPR points in 4-of-5 games, which makes him extremely usable most weeks. The issue is that Logan Ryan has done a phenomenal job covering the slot this year, allowing just 11 catches for 116 scoreless yards in his coverage. When taking a look at the slot receivers he’s faced, here’s how they fared: Danny Amendola (4/26/0), Bruce Ellington (3/45/0), Dede Westbrook (3/31/0), Nelson Agholor (5/22/0), and Zay Jones (3/20/0). While it hasn’t been great competition, he’s done a great job. Because of that, Snead is just a WR5 this week and one you can likely find a better bye week solution than.

Corey Davis: It was a tough matchup with Tre’Davious White last week, so Davis wasn’t expected to have a big game. It didn’t help that Mariota turned back into the bad version, but he’s still getting enough volume to overcome most problems. The Ravens offer another brutal test, as they’ve allowed just one top-15 wide receiver this year and it was A.J. Green on the Thursday night game where he was moved all over the formation. They held Antonio Brown to just 5/62/1, Jarvis Landry to 5/69/0, and Demaryius Thomas to 5/63/0. The Titans only had Davis in the slot 24 percent over the first four weeks, though they upped it to 31 percent of his routes in Week 5, which makes me think they were trying to help him avoid White. He caught two passes for 15 yards on his nine slot routes. The Ravens seem to be easing Jimmy Smith back into game action, as he played just 18 snaps in coverage last week. If Tavon Young continues to cover the slot, it’s an area they can exploit, though you shouldn’t get too excited. He’s just a low-end WR3 this week.

Taywan Taylor: It seems the Titans are sticking with Taylor only playing on the perimeter, as he’s totaled just eight routes run from the slot over the last two weeks. That’s an issue in this matchup against the Ravens, as it means he’ll see a combination of Brandon Carr, Marlon Humphrey, and Jimmy Smith in coverage. That might be one of the best cornerback trios in the league and they’ve held all but one opposing quarterback to 6.0 or less yards per attempt. Knowing that Taylor has only totaled more than 32 yards in one game and it came against the Eagles, we should probably chill on him as a fantasy sleeper. Mariota has enough problems giving us one fantasy relevant receiver.

TEs
Mark Andrews/Hayden Hurst: We didn’t know how the Ravens would bring Hurst into action, but we now do. Here’s the routes run among the tight ends from Week 5: Andrews 31, Hurst 12, Nick Boyle 10, Maxx Andrews 7. So, it’s likely going to take a few weeks for Hurst to become a viable option, while Andrews is the clear-cut No. 1 tight end and he’s not used to block much (because he’s bad at it). The Titans have allowed just one tight end to finish with more than 4.8 PPR points, though it was a big game to Zach Ertz where he amassed 10 catches for 112 yards on 14 targets. It should also be noted that the other tight ends they played were Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jordan Akins, Charles Clay, and Mike Gesicki, so the competition hasn’t been great. Flacco has targeted his tight ends 50 times through five games, so there’s production to be had, though it’s been spread out, as Andrews has been capped at four targets in a single game. Because of that, you’re simply rolling the dice here. If you wanted to play one, it’d be Andrews, but he’s risky.

Jonnu Smith: You don’t need to look into this much, as Smith’s totaled just two catches for 21 yards on the season. Yes, Delanie Walker, who has been out since Week 1, has more than double the PPR points than Smith. He’s just here because I write up at least one tight end for every team.