Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys

Total: 40.5
Line: JAX by 3.0

QBs
Blake Bortles: You were warned about Bortles being bad at any given time right here last week, but even though he may have played one of the worst games of his career, he still managed to finish as the QB11 because of, well, garbage time. That’s not going to happen very much with the Jaguars defense, unless, of course, Bortles continually turns the ball over. The Cowboys have intercepted just one pass all year, but then again, the Chiefs had just two interceptions coming into Bortles’ four-interception game. The Cowboys have had a tough start to the schedule, facing Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Deshaun Watson, but have held their own in each game, failing to allow a single top-eight performance. Their pass-rush has been great while the Jaguars offensive line is crumbling. After losing starting left tackle Cam Robinson earlier in the year, they may be without backup left tackle Josh Wells this week. That would leave 2014 undrafted Josh Walker at left tackle, who had played 85 career snaps coming into the season. Demarcus Lawrence and Taco Charlton might have a field day with Bortles. The area Bortles may rack up some fantasy points is on the ground, as the Cowboys did allow 98 rushing yards and a touchdown to the combination of Newton and Watson. Still, he’s just a low-end QB2 in this game and not a preferred streamer.

Dak Prescott: You know when scrolling through a list of fantasy points allowed and see a few names where you’re like, “of course they’ve allowed very little fantasy points to that position, they’ve played (insert player) and (insert player)!” Well, Prescott is now part of that list where you expect him to finish outside the top-20 quarterbacks every single week. He and his pass-catcher have found no chemistry as the season’s gone on and yet they’ve kept Brice Butler on the bench… Why did they sign him? Whatever the case, he’s now going against the Jaguars defense that’ll have to carry their team. Not that they haven’t before, but they know it’s completely on them to win this game. They’ve also allowed just one QB1 performance over their last 21 games, so you shouldn’t even contemplate Prescott, not even for a second.

RBs
T.J. Yeldon and Jamaal Charles: It was a great spot for Yeldon to produce last week against a Chiefs defense that has been demolished by opposing running backs, but he’s got a tougher test this week against the Cowboys. They’ve allowed just one running back to total more than 55 yards on the ground and it was Chris Carson when he racked up 32 carries against them. That was one of the two running backs who have totaled at least 20 carries against them. The volume would be necessary, as they’ve allowed just 3.3 yards per carry on the season. It would help if Sean Lee was held out for another week, as they’re not the same run-defense without him, despite what Alfred Blue may have told you. Even if that doesn’t work, Yeldon has proven to be a great pass-catcher, and the Cowboys have allowed three different running backs to rack up at least six catches for 45 yards, including 14 catches for 80 yards to Saquon Barkley a few weeks ago. It’s unlikely Charles will walk into a big role in his first week, and it’d be realistic to see him in Corey Grant‘s old role of 5-8 touches. Yeldon should provide low-end RB2/high-end RB3 value in standard leagues, while giving solid RB2 numbers in PPR formats. Charles is nothing more than a hail-mary this week.

Ezekiel Elliott: We’re now through five games and Elliott is on pace for 298 carries, 1,536 yards, 6 rushing touchdowns, 92 targets, 70 receptions, 496 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. Looking at those projected totals, it would have amounted to 324.8 PPR points, which would have been the No. 3 running back last year. To know he’s posting these numbers on a horrible offense is simply ridiculous. The most impressive numbers are the receiving ones, as he’s never totaled more than 40 targets, 32 receptions, or 363 receiving yards. The Jaguars defense has been lights out outside of one Saquon Barkley 68-yard touchdown run that was a highlight reel-type play. Outside of that one carry, they’ve allowed just 2.99 yards per carry and one touchdown. It’s not to say Elliott can’t have one of those plays, but it’s going to be much harder than usual. The Jaguars play man-coverage and their cornerbacks can handle the wide receivers with no help, which means Elliott will consistently see eight-plus defenders in the box. He’s still a must-play in season-long leagues because you never bench him, but it’s a week to be underweight in DFS.

WRs
Keelan Cole: Well, we were right about Cole having the best matchup last week and he saw 10 targets, but Bortles was… Bortles. You must know that every time you start a Jaguars wide receiver, it’s possible the volume may not be good. On top of that, there’s four receivers seeing targets now, which further complicates matters. There have been just two wide receivers who’ve posted more than 77 yards against the Cowboys and they were DeAndre Hopkins and Golden Tate, which tells us that there’s not a certain player-type they allow big performances to, as those two are polar opposites. Cole will see a mixture of Chidobe Awuzie and Byron Jones in coverage this week, though he’ll likely see more of Jones who has been phenomenal through five games, allowing just 125 scoreless yards on 22 targets in coverage. He’s only been targeted once every 10.8 snaps, which makes him the fourth-lowest targeted cornerback in coverage. It essentially means that teams are avoiding throwing his way, as Awuzie has been easier to pick on. With how little of time Bortles will have, you want to look at the roles in the offense. The average depth of target for Cole is 9.3 yards, while Westbrook is 6.9 yards, and Moncrief is at a robust 14.7 yards. Knowing that, it’s possible that Westbrook is the most targeted receiver in this game. Cole is just a WR4 who comes with plenty of different outcomes, though his matchup is the worst of the Jaguars receivers.

Dede Westbrook: As mentioned in the Cole paragraph, Westbrook has been treated as a slot-only wide receiver this year, averaging just a 6.9-yard average depth of target, which is one of the lowest marks in the NFL. This is beneficial when you consider Bortles is down to his third-string left tackle against the Cowboys pass-rush. Westbrook will see Anthony Brown in the slot, who was burned in coverage by Keke Coutee pretty routinely in Week 5 and we saw Golden Tate‘s 8/132/2 performance against them in Week 4. Those are two slot-only wide receivers who’ve been able to post big numbers against the defense, so it’s possible we see Westbrook pop back up on the fantasy radar. While most were touting him last week, it was never a good matchup. This one is much better, putting Westbrook on the WR4 radar.

Donte Moncrief: Prior to looking, there’s no way I would’ve guessed that Moncrief has the highest average depth of target of the Jaguars receivers, but his 14.7 air yards per target say otherwise. We’ve seen Moncrief see anywhere from three targets to the 15 targets he saw last week against the Chiefs. He’s now totaled 185 yards and a touchdown the last two weeks, so we have to take notice as these are games without Leonard Fournette, who will be out once again this week. Moncrief will see a lot of Chidobe Awuzie who’s allowed two touchdowns in his coverage the last three weeks. In two home games, he’s allowed 13-of-17 passing for 223 yards and a touchdown in his coverage, so you’d think it’s a week to look at Moncrief. While he’s not a bad play, his average depth of target is worrisome because Bortles isn’t going to have much time to throw. Similar to his teammates, Moncrief should be considered a risk/reward WR4 who has arguably the best matchup, though there’s circumstances that could hurt his production.

Cole Beasley: I felt the need to put at least one Cowboys receiver here in the notes, so Beasley gets the nod, as he’s the most productive one. It’s really sad considering he’s got 17 catches for 193 yards and no touchdowns on the season. The closest wide receiver to him? Tavon Austin, who has nine targets and four rushing attempts. The slot is the biggest weakness of the Jaguars defense, though it’s not a matchup you can exploit, either. They’ve played against Quincy Enunwa who totaled just 4/66/0, and Sterling Shepard who totaled just 5/48/0. If you’re in a Cowboys-only league, I suppose you can play Beasley.

TEs
Niles Paul: Now that Austin Seferian-Jenkins is on injured reserve, it’s Paul’s job. Coming in relief last week, he caught seven passes for 65 yards. On the year, Seferian-Jenkins had totaled 11 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. Safe to say that Paul may be the better option for Bortles? The Cowboys have been somewhat of a team to target with tight ends who get volume, as there’ve been just two tight ends who’ve seen more than five targets. Evan Engram caught all seven of his targets for 67 yards and a touchdown, while Ryan Griffin posted six catches for 65 yards just last week. The Cowboys linebackers who are used heavily in coverage are Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith, who’ve allowed 32-of-35 passing for 262 yards and a touchdown in their combined coverage. Jeff Heath also helps out, but he hasn’t been much better. We don’t know if last week’s performance was a fluke (Bortles did throw the ball 61 times), but Paul could be an interesting streaming option in 2TE leagues, though I think you can do better in standard formats.

Geoff Swaim: I haven’t quite figured out why Swaim doesn’t get more targets from Prescott, as he’s done extremely well on the ones he’s gotten to this point. Over the last three weeks he’s totaled 15 targets which have netted 141 yards and a touchdown. On the entire season, his top receiver has 193 yards and no touchdowns. This week, however, not a good one to target him more. The Jaguars have allowed just one tight end to top 18 yards and it was Travis Kelce, who might just be the best tight end in the game right now. It was this way with the Jaguars last year, too, as they allowed just two tight ends to score more than 11 PPR points all season. Swaim will likely be a streamer soon, but this is not a week to look his direction.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Total: 59.5
Line: NE by 3.5

QBs
Patrick Mahomes: Well, it was kind of what we expected last week when Mahomes finished as the QB17 against the Jaguars, though the Chiefs offense didn’t need to do much considering Bortles lost that game on his own. The big news was that Sammy Watkins was back in the fold and he’ll be there when they head to New England on Sunday night. The Patriots have looked similar to the way they did last year, looking like a competent defense one game only to allow 377 yards and four touchdowns to Bortles the next. In a game against this same offense, only led by Alex Smith, the Patriots defense allowed 368 yards and four touchdowns on just 35 pass attempts. They also allowed Kareem Hunt to have one of the best performances of the year. The Patriots have had 10 days to prepare for this game, which should help, but knowing they’ve allowed two top-five performances on the year (Bortles, Andrew Luck), you can’t contemplate sitting Mahomes. I mean, you saw who Luck was throwing to last week, right? He finished with 365 yards and three touchdowns. The Patriots also play a lot of man-coverage, which should be a net-positive for Mahomes, as the defenders will have their backs to him as he scrambles. It’s also impossible to hang with Tyreek Hill/Watkins for more than a few seconds. Mahomes is an elite QB1 play.

Tom Brady: Let’s see if Brady can outgun the up-and-comer Mahomes in this shootout. There’s going to be plenty of scoring in this game, though Brady should be on the side with more points. Why? Well, the Chiefs defense is going to allow a lot of them. They’ve still yet to hold a quarterback to less than 7.0 yards per attempt on the season, leading to three 420-plus yard games. No, I’m not talking about total yards… that’s passing totals alone. They’ve allowed a top-12 performance in 4-of-5 games. What makes it even more appealing? They’ve played one quarterback who’s had a good year (Philip Rivers). The Chiefs output on offense will force Brady and the Patriots to keep their foot on the gas, it’s why we’ve seen an average of 39.8 pass attempts against them (seventh-most). Brady has a run-game now, but that shouldn’t take away from his potential in this game. It also doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs will likely be without edge-rusher Justin Houston for this game, as he strained his hamstring in the win over the Jaguars. It’d be tough to choose which quarterback to play of the two in this game, but Brady should be right there with Mahomes at the end, though the rushing totals probably give Mahomes the edge in fantasy points.

RBs
Kareem Hunt: After a slow start, Hunt has found his groove the last three weeks, finishing with 252 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, and has even chipped-in with four catches for 61 yards. It was only a matter of time before defenses started giving Mahomes the respect he deserved and it’s paying dividends for Hunt. He’s now totaled at least 16 carries in each game and will head into a matchup with the Patriots who have already allowed two running backs to tally at least 98 yards on the ground. They’ve also likely had the easiest schedule against running backs to this point, as they’ve faced Lamar Miller, T.J. Yeldon, Kerryon Johnson, Frank Gore, and Nyheim Hines. In their matchup last year, Hunt broke onto the scene totaling 246 total yards and three touchdowns while scoring 45.6 PPR points. Knowing that the Patriots have faced some lackluster competition at running back, it shouldn’t shock you that they’ve allowed just one rushing touchdown on the year. That said, they have dealt with some injuries and seem to be getting healthier. Still, it’s tough to say Hunt won’t find the end zone at least once in this high-scoring affair. He should deliver RB1 numbers in this game.

Sony Michel and James White: It’s been an ascending trend for Michel in his rookie season, coming to a head the last two weeks with 222 total yards and two touchdowns, though the competition has been rather mediocre. Still, with the Patriots offense having so many names to support, it’s good to see them use Michel in a big role. His 43 carries over the last two weeks towers over the 10 carries for White, who still has a significant role in the passing-game. The Chiefs haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher yet, though that’s likely attributed to the Chiefs winning games by an average margin of 9.2 points. If Michel gets 20 carries in this game, he’ll be going over the century-mark, as they’ve allowed 5.48 yards per carry on the year, which have included four rushing touchdowns. When you have a home-favorite in a game where there’s 59.5 points projected, you play him and don’t think twice about it. He’s an RB1 who could go bananas if the Patriots decide to use Brady as the decoy in the red zone (though I don’t see that happening). White should be a solid play as well, as the Chiefs have allowed running backs an NFL-high 454 yards in the passing game with three touchdowns. To explain how high that is, the Chiefs defense in all 16 games last year allowed 429 yards and two touchdowns to running backs in the receiving game. White should be considered an RB2 in all formats.

WRs
Tyreek Hill: How will the Patriots defense cover him? The expectation should be that they use Jason McCourty on him with safety help at all times, while Watkins draws Stephon Gilmore. The Chiefs are still going to move him all over the formation to help see what type of coverage they’re running, which will allow them to get Hill into space. McCourty has been very good this year, but he’s not covering Hill one-on-one. If you can’t get your hands on him at the line of scrimmage, you’ve already lost the battle. McCourty did run a 4.33-second 40-yard dash in college, so his speed should be able to keep up the majority of time. If there’s one thing Bill Belichick has done throughout his career, it’s successfully removed the opponent’s best receiver from the game. Hill is an interesting one because he’s not the typical alpha receiver. He tagged them for 7/133/1 last year, but that was also before he was, well, who he is now. You’ll want to play him as a high-end WR2 in season-long leagues, but I’d reserve DFS plays for tournaments only.

Sammy Watkins: It’s likely that we see Stephon Gilmore glued to Watkins this week, and the two know each other very well from their time in Buffalo where they’d go against each other in practice. After getting off to a rough start, Gilmore has played much better over the last two weeks, though the competition was… less than stellar (Dolphins, Colts without Hilton). Prior to those two games, he allowed 10-of-19 passing for 122 yards and three touchdowns, so it wasn’t as pretty. Gilmore has always kind of been that guy, a bit up-and-down in production, but typically more good than bad. He’s allowed touchdowns to Donte Moncrief, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay this year. Will Watkins be the next one on that list? It’s unlikely that Gilmore gets much help over the top, as Hill will surely be double-covered most of the time. In the last three full games he’s played, Watkins has totaled 23 targets, 17 receptions, 233 yards, and one touchdown. Safe to say he’s a big part of the offense, so feel free to start him as a high-end WR3 in a projected shootout.

Chris Conley: If you are looking for someone in season-long leagues who might just be overlooked as a sneaky bye-week replacement, Conley might be your guy. He’s seen 11 targets the last two weeks and although it hasn’t turned into much, opportunity is key in a high-scoring game. Conley has also seen three red zone targets from Mahomes this year, converting two of them into touchdowns. He’s someone who could surprise in this game.

Julian Edelman: It was fun to watch Edelman get back onto the field last week, as he does subtle things on the field that explain why Brady likes him so much. I watched him slow routes because he saw the zone forming around him, only to hit the turbo button, stop to sit in the hole of the zone and Brady dropped the ball in. It’s poetry in motion, really. Those two are on the same page and it was clear they didn’t skip a beat. Edelman will have the toughest matchup of the Patriots receivers with Kendall Fuller, though he’s not unbeatable. He had a career-year in 2017, but he reminds me of Jalen Mills in a lot of ways, where you don’t go from how bad he was in 2016, to how good he was in 2017. What do I mean by that? Fuller allowed 44-of-56 passes to be completed for 569 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage in 2016, good for a 120.9 QB Rating. He was someone to target every week, then suddenly, he’s allowing just a 56.7 QB Rating the following season? Yes, players can improve, but we don’t want to accept it as reality until we see it consistently. He’s allowed a 113.1 QB Rating in coverage this season. Edelman should be trotted out as a solid WR3 in standard leagues and a WR2 in PPR formats.

Josh Gordon: It’s tough to say you should absolutely love Gordon considering he’s played just 18 snaps in each of his two games with the Patriots, but the matchup this week makes it hard not to. He’d see a mixture of Orlando Scandrick and Steven Nelson in coverage, neither of which is six-feet-tall. You have to think Gordon earned some of Brady’s trust last week when he simply threw the ball up into double coverage and watched Gordon swoop in to snag the touchdown. It’s pointless to go into any detail because it’s possible that he plays less than 20 snaps again, but knowing the upside, it’s tough to sit him for any wide receiver who isn’t a sure thing. I’d consider Gordon a high-risk/high-reward WR3 and one who I’d probably give the tie-breaker to in a tough call.

Chris Hogan: Many wondered if Hogan would go to the bench with Edelman back, but that wasn’t the case at all. In fact, he played 63-of-69 snaps, which was 15 more than any other wide receiver on the team. He caught three balls for 34 yards, but he also had a nasty drop that resulted in an interception. It’s unclear whether or not Hogan will wind up in the doghouse, but they’ll need every one of their players to show up in this game. He’ll see Steven Nelson most of the time, a cornerback who’s allowed a rather-high 14.7 yards per reception, though he’s played better this year than in years past. He’s allowing just a 48.8 percent catch-rate in his coverage, so it may take Hogan more targets than usual to score many points here. That’s an issue when he has just 19 targets through five games. It’s probably best to keep him on the bench until we see him used in a different fashion, but I still wouldn’t take him off the WR4/5 radar considering the Patriots are projected to score 31.5 points.

Phillip Dorsett: He played ahead of Gordon last week, so you can’t forget about the guy who leads the Patriots in targets (29), but something has to give in order to give Gordon more playing time. Dorsett saw a season-low three targets last week, so it may have already begun. But here’s the thing… He won’t go from 42 snaps to none, so he’s still going to have some sort of role, even if Gordon does get a bump in snaps. If someone has dropped Dorsett and you’re looking for a last-second bye-week replacement, he’s not the worst solution.

TEs
Travis Kelce: The battle of the titans, though Kelce has clearly been the better one through five weeks. After struggling against the Chargers in the opener, Kelce has racked up a ridiculous 401 yards and three touchdowns over the last four weeks. The bad news is that Belichick made him the defense’s focal point last year, holding him to just 40 yards on seven targets while Hill and Hunt went off. It’s unlikely they can make Kelce the focal point again, as you cannot leave Hill in one-on-one coverage. It’s the reason Kelce is the No. 1 tight end in football, as you have to pick your poison with this offense. The Patriots are coming off a game in which they allowed 9/105/2 to Eric frickin’ Ebron. Prior to him, they’d played a B-squad of tight ends, though they also allowed a touchdown to Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Patrick Chung will be asked to defend him a lot, a safety who’s allowed 9/127/1 on 14 targets this year. Kelce and Gronk should be the No. 1 and No. 2 tight ends this week, though I’ll give the edge to Kelce considering we know he’s healthier.

Rob Gronkowski: Battling multiple injuries early in the year, it’s hopeful that 10 days rest helped prepare Gronkowski for a big role against the Chiefs. Without Eric Berry, they’ve really struggled, allowing 3-of-5 tight ends finish as top-six fantasy options. It’s now been four weeks straight without a Gronkowski touchdown and that doesn’t feel right. That hasn’t happened since 2011, and he scored 10 touchdowns over the next six games that year. The Chiefs have allowed just one tight end touchdown this year, but they’ve allowed a league-leading 453 yards to them, so the touchdowns will be coming soon, and it should be Gronkowski delivering them. He’s a must-play in every format this week and one I’d like to have tons of exposure to in DFS.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

Total: 46.5
Line: GB by 9.5

QBs
C.J. Beathard: He’s now got two games under his belt, which have both somehow produced at least 298 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Nevermind that there’s also been two interceptions and two fumbles… minor details. In the end, he’s kind of like Blake Bortles back before he had an elite defense, just racking up the garbage time points while chucking the ball a ton. What makes Beathard’s fantasy numbers even more impressive is that he doesn’t have Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee to throw to. The Packers haven’t been a defense to pick on this year, which is odd because they’ve been for the last few years. Through five games, they’ve allowed just one quarterback to surpass 220 yards through the air. That was Kirk Cousins, who threw for 425 yards while throwing the ball 48 times. The Packers aren’t an elite defense by any means, but it’s tough to see Beathard racking up as much volume in this game, as Packers opponents average just 60.4 plays per game (eighth-lowest in the league). He’s also going to be missing one of his favorite options in Matt Breida, though it’s likely that Juszczyk will step into that role this week. The gamescript does favor the pass, so he’s playable in 2QB formats, but I’d look elsewhere in 1QB leagues.

Aaron Rodgers: It seems like Rodgers is back to full health, eh? He was moving around much better last week, though he wasn’t finding much he liked as he stood back in the pocket too long at times, leading to two fumbles. He should be getting some wide receiver help back this week, though with the bye week looming in Week 7, they may play it safe with Allison and Cobb. With all of the high-volume passing going on in the league today, it’s odd to see a team face just one quarterback with 40 attempts, but that’s where the 49ers are at. Still, they’ve allowed 12 passing touchdowns. Their 6.3 percent touchdown-rate ranks as the sixth-highest in the league. This game has an old Rodgers game type feel to it, where he might throw for 220 yards and three touchdowns but lack true upside because they don’t need to throw the ball a lot. It’s also probably why the 49ers have allowed four quarterbacks to finish top-13, but none of them to finish inside the top-six. If we hear his receivers are coming back later in the week, I’ll feel better about moving him up to elite territory, but for now, he should be considered in the must-start mid-QB1 tier.

RBs
Alfred Morris and Kyle Juszczyk: I know they haven’t officially ruled out Matt Breida for this week, but he’s not going to play. It’s going to be Morris’ backfield while they can keep the game close, though that doesn’t figure to be long against the Packers offense. There’s been just two running backs who’ve totaled more than 12 carries against the Packers, and both of those running backs had solid fantasy days. Adrian Peterson (19/120/2) and Jordan Howard (15/82/0) are also similar power running backs who aren’t known for their pass-catching ability. But again, those teams had the lead and were able to get the necessary carries to produce. Morris is still a starting running back in a decent matchup (Packers have allowed 4.43 yards per carry), so he should be considered a high-end RB3 who’ll get all the goal-line carries. Juszczyk is also playable in PPR formats, as he’s going to be heavily utilized in the passing-game with Breida out. He caught 6-of-7 targets last week for 75 yards while Breida was sidelined, so I’d expect him to be a legitimate high-end RB4 in PPR leagues this week.

Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and Ty Montgomery: So, the Packers want to give Jones more carries, huh? That explains his massive workload in Week 5. If you couldn’t tell, this is me being sarcastic. Jones now has 24 carries on the year for 147 yards and a touchdown, while his counterpart Williams has 195 scoreless yards on his 53 carries. While you can’t simply compare a small sample like that and have it be the end-all-be-all, but anyone with eyeballs can clearly see Jones brings additional burst to the offense. They can only keep him bottled up for so long and this could be the game he’s able to see more opportunities, as there should be plenty of rushing attempts to go around with 49ers opponents average 25.6 per game. The issue, however, is that the 49ers have been a really good run-defense with the acquisition of rookie linebacker Fred Warner. Alongside Rueben Foster, they’ve been able to hold opposing running backs to just 3.76 yards per carry, though they’ve allowed four rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks. It should be mentioned that they were all goal-line plunges, which could happen to anyone. Knowing that Jones has still yet to see more than 11 carries in a game, he’s stuck in low-end RB3 territory, but he may come out of the bye week as the starter. Williams is going to get some volume in this game, though it may not amount to much, making him a mediocre RB4. Montgomery wasn’t used as a wide receiver last week, so he’s essentially Duke Johnson in a three-way timeshare. Unless he scores, he’s a bust, making him an RB5 who could sneak into RB4 territory in PPR formats.

WRs
Pierre Garcon: He was forced to leave the game last week with a shoulder injury, but ultimately returned to the game. With both Goodwin and Dante Pettis inactive, it’s a good thing he was able to. Over the last two weeks with Beathard, Garcon has seen 20 targets, totaling 9/99/0 on them, so he’s at least somewhat usable. He’s played 80 percent of his snaps on the perimeter, meaning he’ll see a mixture of Tramon Williams and Kevin King. They’ve both allowed two touchdowns in their coverage, though we know that Garcon doesn’t score, right? I mean, it’s now been 124 targets since he last scored. The NFL average among wide receivers last year was one touchdown every 22.8 targets. With Breida out, it’s likely that Garcon will need to be heavily relied upon once again. Consider him a low-upside WR4 who should provide a high-floor. Update: Garcon isn’t practicing at the moment due to a shoulder injury and his availability for this game is now in doubt.

Marquise Goodwin: He’s not guaranteed to play this week, but I’d expect him to suit-up after he took last week off and has an extra day to prepare for this game. He would see the most of Tramon Williams, who even at 35 years old, is the Packers best cornerback at this moment. He’s allowed just a 56.5 percent catch-rate in his coverage while allowing just 7.5 yards per reception on the passes he has allowed to be completed. The two touchdowns he’s allowed have clouded his overall numbers, but he’s playing well. Despite throwing the ball 91 times the last two weeks, Beathard has thrown just five balls that have traveled over 20 yards. He’s completed two of them for 102 yards and a touchdown, though he also had one interception. The thing that hurts Goodwin is the volume, as Beathard’s 5.5 percent deep throw-rate is the second-lowest in the NFL, behind only Sam Bradford. Goodwin is nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR5 who’s battling some injuries.

Trent Taylor: With Breida out and Dante Pettis likely out another week, Taylor could see an extended role like the one he did in Week 5 where he saw a season-high eight targets that netted 7/61/1 in a plus-matchup with the Cardinals. The Packers have a much better slot cornerback, as Jaire Alexander has been fantastic in his rookie season. He’s allowed just 13/150/1 on 22 targets in coverage, which included limiting Golden Tate to just 5/42/0 last week. If Goodwin and Pettis are out again, the targets have to go somewhere, which could make him a WR5 in PPR formats in case of emergency. Update: Taylor is listed as questionable, but not expected to play in this game, so he’s no longer an option. 

Davante Adams: I think it’s time we all stop and say Adams might just be special, and not just playing with a special quarterback. He’s matched-up with the Kyle Fuller, Xavier Rhodes, Josh Norman, Tre’Davious White, and Darius Slay this year, yet has managed to post at least 81 yards and/or a touchdown in every game. While some weren’t shadow situations, he’s clearly dominating opposing secondaries and it’s very unlikely that Richard Sherman or Ahkello Witherspoon will end that. In fact, Witherspoon is losing snaps to Greg Mabin a 2017 undrafted free agent. Sherman has pretty much been avoided in coverage by opponents, and it’s something that Rodgers does very well. When Sherman was in Seattle, the Packers would stick their least-used wide receiver on his side and pretty much ignore him the whole game. Expect that to be the case again, while Adams goes to the other side of the field. Start him as a WR1 and expect big results.

Geronimo Allison: We don’t know if Allison will play this week, as he is not only dealing with a concussion, but his hamstring was also on the injury report last week. With their bye week right around the corner (next week), it’s possible that Allison is down for another week. If he plays, he could be the receiver who’s pushed over to Richard Sherman‘s side of the field to be what is essentially a decoy. As mentioned in Adams’ paragraph, when Sherman was in Seattle, the Packers would stick their least-used wide receiver on his side and pretty much ignore him the whole game. Not that Allison is chopped liver, but if he’s not quite 100 percent, it’s what a smart coach would do, and let Adams do work on Ahkello Witherspoon and Greg Mabin. Allison is a risky WR4 this week, but if you want to play him, have a backup plan like Valdes-Scantling or Equanimeous St. Brown as a backup plan considering it’s a Monday night game. Update: Allison returned to a limited practice on Friday and is listed as questionable, but knowing the Packers have a bye in Week 7, they may play it safe. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Randall Cobb: It’s unknown at this point in time whether Cobb will play, but I’d guess he sits another week with their bye in Week 7 and Valdes-Scantling playing well in his absence. It appears like he’s the direct backup for Cobb, while Equanimeous St. Brown is Allison’s backup on the perimeter. Valdes-Scantling would get K’Waun Williams in coverage, a slot-only cornerback who’s yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage, but he’s allowing a rather-high 14.7 yards per reception out of the slot. The majority of yardage went to Adam Thielen and Golden Tate, so it’s tough to blame him against those monsters. He did a good job against Larry Fitzgerald last week, as he posted just two catches for 35 yards, though he was targeted just three times. It’s not the best matchup on the field like last week, so dial back expectations into WR4 territory this week. Even if Cobb were to play, he’d be in similar territory, though he’d come with even more risk than MSV. Update: Cobb returned to a limited practice on Friday, so they haven’t shut the door on a return, though as mentioned before, the bye week looms. He’s listed as questionable, but I’d go another route unless I had Valdes-Scantling as a backup plan.  

TEs
George Kittle: It seems that the Packers are missing the presence of Morgan Burnett who they let walk in free agency, as they’ve now allowed three tight ends to post 65 or more yards against them. In their 16 games last year, they allowed just one tight end to hit that mark against them. Kentrell Brice is the one they have in coverage quite a bit and he’s allowed 12-of-15 passing for 168 yards and a touchdown through five games. Kittle has proven to be Beathard’s favorite weapon on the field and has targeted him 15 times over the last two weeks with a lot of success, as he’s totaled 11/208/1 on those targets. There’s no reason to think he’ll be any less-targeted in this game, so suit him up as a rock-solid TE1.

Jimmy Graham: The bad news is that Graham has scored just one touchdown through five games. The good news is that he’s up to 245 yards which ranks eighth among tight ends. He’s seeing plenty of targets and catching plenty of balls, so the touchdowns should follow. The 49ers have played five games this year and have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends, the most in the NFL. The best part is that they haven’t even played the greatest competition outside of Travis Kelce, who oddly didn’t score against them. As the weeks go on, Rodgers and Graham should get on the same page and connect more often when it matters. He should be played as a TE1 most weeks and this one is no different.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Total: 45.0
Line: PHI by 3.0

QBs
Carson Wentz: The Eagles have now lost two in a row and the sky is falling, though it’s not on Wentz. He’s completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt with five touchdowns to one interception. The lack of run-game is hurting their team, and it’s forced them to throw the ball 40.8 times per game, a far cry from the 35.3 they averaged last year. The Giants present a problem, too, as they’ve held all but one quarterback to 6.8 yards per attempt or less this year. In two home games, they’ve held the combination of Blake Bortles and Drew Brees to just 393 yards and one touchdown. It’s a divisional game and these teams know each other very well, though it’s a different defense in New York than last year. With Janoris Jenkins shadowing Alshon Jeffery, Wentz will have to find a new favorite target this week. It looks to be a low-scoring affair, but Wentz should be on the high-end QB2 radar due to his lack of consistency in the run-game.

Eli Manning: It was good to see Manning take some shots down the field against the Panthers, as his average target was 10.7 yards down the field, which ranked third-highest among quarterbacks in Week 5. Even with that included, his yearly average is just 7.2 yards, which is bottom-10 in the NFL, so it was a huge step forward. The Eagles have played on the road twice this year, allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick 402 yards and four touchdowns, and then Marcus Mariota 344 yards and two touchdowns. Their secondary is atrocious, though their pass-rush is built to get after Manning. They were down Derek Barnett last week and only sacked Kirk Cousins once last week, but Manning has now been sacked 16 times this year. If they don’t get after Manning, the secondary will continually get beat by Beckham, Shepard, and company. With Manning coming off his highest yardage total of the season (326) and knowing Barkley won’t get much going on the ground, he’s a bit more appealing as a mid-tier QB2 who can be considered for streaming purposes if you own Drew Brees or Matthew Stafford.

RBs
Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement, and Josh Adams: The big news that shocked the fantasy world this week was that Jay Ajayi was placed on season-ending I.R. with a torn ACL. It obviously creates opportunity for the rest of the running backs on the roster, though trying to figure out who may be the problem. Over the last two weeks, the Giants have allowed 241 rushing yards, 87 receiving yards, and four total touchdowns to running backs. On the season, the Giants have allowed at least one running back touchdown in each of their five games, though they’ve had some stellar competition. It should be expected that Smallwood leads the timeshare, as he’s best-suited to handle the early-down work and presents somewhat of a threat in the passing-game, though it shouldn’t shock anyone if Clement is the one who eventually gets that role. The fact that he’s been held out the last few weeks is what makes me feel like Smallwood is the guy on a short week. Adams may come in and steal some goal-line work, as that’s the role he’s best suited for, and that would just destroy any value in this backfield. For this week, Smallwood should be considered an RB3 who comes with obvious risk, while Clement is a high-risk RB4 type.

Saquon Barkley: It was scary to see Barkley on the sideline grimacing in pain, though he appears to have escaped any major injury. He’s now totaled at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of their first five games and has five touchdowns to go with it. Despite the Giants offense struggling for much of the first quarter of the season, Barkley has remained an ultra-high floor option. The Eagles aren’t going to let him do anything on the ground, as they’ve allowed a season-high of just 42 rushing yards. In fact, no team has totaled more than 55 rushing yards against them. Barkley himself has totaled 48 rushing yards or less in three of the last four games, so the two don’t exactly produce confidence. We have seen some receiving totals, though, as Dion Lewis was able to rack up 9/67/0 through the air, and Nyheim Hines was able to catch five passes for 25 yards. We kind of know what to expect out of Barkley every week, as his one-play ability can change his entire projection. With that being said, this may be his toughest game of the year on short rest, making him a low-end RB1 who might disappoint. There’s been just one running back to score more than 11.5 PPR points against the Eagles.

WRs
Alshon Jeffery: Despite being shadowed by Xavier Rhodes, Jeffery saw eight targets last week, so Wentz isn’t afraid to throw it in his direction. While he finished with just two catches for 39 yards, it’s what makes Jeffery impossible to bench. He’s always going to get his targets, but he’s also going to have another brutal matchup in Week 6 against Janoris Jenkins. Over the last three weeks, here’s a list of the wide receivers he’s shadowed and what he’s allowed: DeAndre Hopkins (6/86/0), Michael Thomas (4/47/0), and Devin Funchess (4/53/0). Needless to say, it’s not going to be an easy road to fantasy points for Jeffery this week, though he’ll get his opportunities, making him a lower-upside WR2/3 option.

Nelson Agholor: He’s still running a lot of his routes out of the slot, though his 56 percent of routes run from the slot was lower than the 63 percent of slot routes he ran from Week 1-4. It’s a smaller sample size, so we don’t want to overreact or anything. With Wentz, he’s now seen 19 targets in three games, producing 13/91/0, which is less than ideal. The good news is that he likely has the best matchup on the field this week. While Janoris Jenkins shadows Jeffery, Agholor will see a mixture of B.W. Webb and Eli Apple in coverage. Apple returned from a multi-week absence last week, only to allow six catches for 69 yards on eight targets in coverage, so he still seems to be the guy who was nearly cut this offseason. Webb has played better as of late, but he’s allowed a 110.7 QB Rating in his coverage over his five-year career. It hasn’t been pretty for Agholor, but this game could get him back on track. He should be considered a high-end WR4 who I’d probably want to play if choosing in a tiebreaker.

Odell Beckham Jr: It was good to see him get some production last week, as Beckham racked up 14 targets that netted 131 yards and a touchdown. He also added a long passing touchdown to Barkley, though that’s not going to happen again this season. Beckham has now seen at least nine targets in every game, so the production was bound to follow. The Eagles have now played against seven wide receivers who’ve seen at least nine targets. Here’s their totals: Corey Davis (9/161/1), Julio Jones (10/169/0), Mike Evans (10/83/1), Taywan Taylor (7/77/0), T.Y. Hilton (5/50/0), Stefon Diggs (10/91/0), and Adam Thielen (7/116/1). The combination of Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills is having tons of struggles and Beckham won’t make their life any easier. Knowing they’ve allowed six wide receivers to rack up seven or more catches, Beckham could very well be the WR1 this week.

Sterling Shepard: It’s now been three weeks where Evan Engram has missed the game/majority of the game. In those three games, Shepard has totaled at least 75 yards in each of them, including two touchdowns. He’s now seen at least seven targets in 4-of-5 games this season, so he’s safer than most realize. The Eagles have had second-year cornerback Sidney Jones covering the slot and let’s just say it hasn’t gone very well. He’s now allowed 18-of-26 targets be completed, though they’ve only amounted to 140 yards and one touchdown. He’s not getting better, as the last two weeks have allowed both Taywan Taylor and Adam Thielen to combine for 14 catches and 193 yards and a touchdown. While Malcolm Jenkins comes down to help, Jones will be responsible for Shepard the majority of the game. He can be played as a solid WR3 who might take a backseat to the Beckham show in Week 6.

TEs
Zach Ertz: It was comical to see Ertz score, as it was something I mentioned in The Primer last week. With the rate of receptions and yardage he was getting, the touchdowns would surely follow. He’s now caught at least five passes in every game this year, and has caught 10 or more passes in 3-of-5 games (WHAT). He’s also seen at least 10 targets in every game and that won’t change against the Giants. Most will look at the Giants defense and think, “wow, they’ve yet to allow a tight end more than 7.3 PPR points.” We’re at the point where it’s a sample size you have to examine closer. They’ve played against Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Geoff Swaim, Ryan Griffin, Ben Watson, and Ian Thomas. Yeah, not exactly top-tier competition. With Janoris Jenkins shadowing Jeffery, expect Ertz to be heavily targeted once again, and an elite TE1 play.

Rhett Ellison: He’s likely to get just one more start with Evan Engram out of the lineup, though he’s trended down the last two weeks and hurt his foot during their Week 5 loss. He saw just three targets against the Panthers despite Manning throwing the ball 36 times, and that’s likely a product of Manning taking more shots down the field and not checking down so much. Outside of an O.J. Howard 75-yard catch-and-run touchdown, the Eagles have been a shutdown defense against tight ends, holding Eric Ebron to just 5/33/0 on 11 targets, and then Kyle Rudolph to just 5/41/0 last week. It’s not a week to believe that Ellison has a breakout performance, so he’s not on the streaming radar.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.