Last season was one of the most productive years from wide receivers – catching an NFL record 532 touchdowns! In fantasy, the top-10 wide receivers in 2018 outscored 2017’s top 10 by 624.9 half-PPR points! In addition to seeing some big-time performances, we also saw some of the most consistent fantasy seasons among all positional groups.
In this analysis, we examined the top-30 wide receivers being drafted and how consistently they produced their average fantasy points (FPTS) per game last season in half-PPR scoring.
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The criteria for analyzing each wide receiver was the following:
- Being drafted as a top-30 wide receiver in 2019
- Played two or more quarters in each game — If the player exited without two quarters logged, that game was not included. For example, A.J. Green was injured in Week 13 and Amari Cooper left his Week 6 game — both injuries occurred before the first half was concluded. These games were not incorporated in their analysis as it doesn’t give us a good idea of Green’s and Cooper’s productivity. While a player injury is noteworthy, I wanted to get a feel for how players performed when healthy.
- Must have played in at least eight games
Cooper Kupp (WR21) was not included due to the above criteria.
The graphic below illustrates wide receiver consistency by calculating a standard deviation based upon their fantasy points per game in 2018. Standard deviation (SD) was used to examine the player’s consistency of putting up their average fantasy points (FPTS). For consistent production, we want a standard deviation to below or as close to zero as possible. From the 29 wide receivers in this analysis, the average FPTS per game was 13.7 with an average standard deviation of 6.9.
Note: All ADP and positional ranks were from August 21, 2019.
Once again, Mike Tagliere’s tier performance analysis was used to look at the average top-12 (WR1), top-24 (WR2), and top-36 (WR3) performances from all weeks of the season. An example of why we find the average is this: Keenan Allen was WR12 in Week 11 with 19.5 FPTS points while Chris Hogan was the WR12 in Week 15 with 12.6 points — a variation of 6.9 points at the same finish. If we find the average of each of the three tiers, we can have a better understanding of what makes a WR1, WR2, and WR3 performance.
The thresholds for each wide receiver tier are:
- WR1 – 17.1 FPTS
- WR2 – 12.7 FPTS
- WR3 – 9.6 FPTS
Here is a breakdown of each of the wide receiver tier performances from 2018.
| Player | 2019 Positional Rank | Games Played | Top 12% | Top 24% | Top 36% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR1 | 16 | 44% | 56% | 100% |
| Davante Adams | WR2 | 15 | 60% | 93% | 100% |
| Julio Jones | WR3 | 16 | 63% | 69% | 81% |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | WR4 | 12 | 33% | 67% | 83% |
| Michael Thomas | WR5 | 16 | 44% | 56% | 63% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR6 | 16 | 25% | 56% | 75% |
| Tyreek Hill | WR7 | 16 | 50% | 50% | 75% |
| Mike Evans | WR8 | 16 | 44% | 63% | 69% |
| Keenan Allen | WR9 | 15 | 27% | 53% | 80% |
| Antonio Brown | WR10 | 15 | 53% | 80% | 93% |
| T.Y. Hilton | WR11 | 14 | 29% | 57% | 71% |
| Adam Thielen | WR12 | 16 | 50% | 56% | 88% |
| Amari Cooper | WR13 | 14 | 21% | 36% | 43% |
| Stefon Diggs | WR14 | 15 | 33% | 53% | 67% |
| Brandin Cooks | WR15 | 15 | 33% | 47% | 67% |
| Robert Woods | WR16 | 16 | 19% | 50% | 81% |
| Julian Edelman | WR17 | 12 | 17% | 67% | 83% |
| Chris Godwin | WR18 | 16 | 13% | 38% | 44% |
| Kenny Golladay | WR19 | 15 | 27% | 47% | 53% |
| Tyler Lockett | WR20 | 16 | 13% | 50% | 69% |
| Tyler Boyd | WR22 | 14 | 36% | 50% | 57% |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR23 | 13 | 31% | 46% | 54% |
| D.J. Moore | WR24 | 16 | 6% | 19% | 31% |
| Calvin Ridley | WR25 | 16 | 19% | 38% | 44% |
| Allen Robinson | WR26 | 13 | 8% | 23% | 38% |
| Mike Williams | WR27 | 16 | 13% | 25% | 44% |
| Robby Anderson | WR28 | 14 | 21% | 29% | 36% |
| A.J. Green | WR29 | 8 | 13% | 75% | 88% |
| Jarvis Landry | WR30 | 16 | 19% | 38% | 50% |
Highest Average FPTS
Davante Adams (GB): AVG FPTS: 18.3 | SD: 4.4
Davante Adams was the poster child for what you wanted from a fantasy player last season. In half-PPR scoring, he averaged 18.3 FPTS while having the third-lowest SD (4.4)! Sixty percent of games ranked as a WR1 performance, 93 percent as a WR2, and he never had a game lower than the WR3 threshold. He not only put up good numbers, but he was also consistently doing it week in and week out.
Looking ahead for 2019, Adams still has one of the best quarterbacks throwing him the ball and is still clearly the best pass-catching option on the Packers. Green Bay does have a new head coach with a new offensive scheme but Adams is too talented to not be featured. Even Aaron Rogers has come out stating he wants to throw to Adams even more than last season because of his ability to get open. Whether he is WR1 or WR2 on your draft board, you can not go wrong with selecting Adams in the first round.
Antonio Brown (OAK): AVG FPTS: 18.1 | SD: 7.5
Antonio Brown’s last season in Pittsburgh was his worst finish since 2012 in fantasy as WR4 — he was only 9.7 PPR points away from being the WR1 in just 15 games. Since 2012, he has finished as the overall WR1 four times in six seasons! To say he has been dominant as a wide receiver is an understatement but now the seven-time pro bowler is in Oakland.
With a new offense, quarterback, head coach, and even a new helmet (sorry I had to), Brown could see a higher rate of inconsistent production. He is undoubtedly one of the top players at his position, but Derek Carr is not as proven at quarterback. With Brown missing preseason work due to his highly entertainable offseason, his top-five finishes might be left behind in Pittsburgh.
We will have to wait and see how the Carr-Brown connection is in the regular season but I think Brown is still too talented to pass at his current ADP of 21 and WR10. For drafters targeting Brown, let’s hope Carr picks up from his 2016 campaign where he finished third in AP NFL MVP voting.
Tyreek Hill (KC): AVG FPTS: 17.8 | SD: 10.8
Being one of the main beneficiaries from Patrick Mahomes last season helped Tyreek Hill become the overall WR1 in half-PPR scoring. Hill had three of the top 10 overall weekly performances among wide receivers and had five weeks of scoring 25 or more FPTS. The reason for his high SD was due to half of his games not reaching the WR2 threshold of 12.7.
A crazy stat from this analysis was all of Hill’s WR1 performances were his WR2 performances as well. This meant that his games either resulted in 17.1 FPTS and above or 12.6 FPTS and below. His 50 percent WR2 threshold ranked 18th among the 29 wide receivers analyzed.
In 2019 I don’t see much changing for Hill. He is going to have games where he dominates and other games where he has limited targets. Hill is one of the most electric players in the NFL but one thing Andy Reid doesn’t do is hyper-target players. Let’s not forget Travis Kelce is on this offense and is one of Mahomes main targets. Add in Sammy Watkins, a star running back from the playoffs last year in Damien Williams, another dynamic wide receiver in Mecole Hardman, and a guy getting a lot of hype in the preseason Darwin Thompson, Hill’s target share could be inconsistent again.
I get why he is being drafted at an ADP of 16 and WR7 with upside through the roof but his floor is what concerns me. With all of the different weapons that the Chiefs have on offense, you may see an inconsistent fantasy production.
Most Consistent
Julian Edelman (NE): AVG FPTS: 14.2 | SD: 3.3
The most consistent wide receiver at their average FPTS last season was Julian Edelman. His SD of 3.3 ranked the lowest amongst all quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers. One reason was due to a moderate average FPTS of 14.2. Edelman had a high floor but a lower ceiling. He didn’t have a game where he scored 20 or more FPTS and only 17 percent of his games hit the WR1 threshold of 17.1 FPTS or more.
With Gronk, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Chris Hogan off the team, Edelman could see a boost in targets. Edelman is 33-years-old so one worry could be how much tread is left on his tires. At an ADP of 40 overall and WR17, you better hope you get the same consistency and a higher ceiling because Edelman has yet to finish as a WR17 or better in his career.
Tyler Lockett (SEA): AVG FPTS: 12.1 | SD: 4.2
Lockett only saw 71 targets last season. The same amount that Josh Gordon had while playing for two teams and missing four games. What made Lockett so consistent on such a low target share was his efficiency. In my last article, I highlighted some of Lockett’s and Wilson’s efficiency numbers last season and why I think Lockett will have a better season this year. For those not looking to search for that content I will summarize here.
Lockett didn’t have a single dropped pass while averaging 14.9 yards per target, which is the most by any wide receiver with at least 25 targets this past decade. He also was tied for the fifth-most receiving touchdowns in 2018. With no Doug Baldwin this year, Lockett’s target share should increase. The Seahawks also lost a few players on defense so expect the first ranked team in rushing yards last season to emphasize more on the passing game.
Lockett may not have as efficient and consistent production as last year, but there is no reason to doubt his ceiling won’t be higher. At his current ADP of 50 and WR20, drafters should be comfortable choosing the guy who helped Wilson record a perfect passer rating of 158.3 when targeting Lockett (the first perfect WR rating recorded in the PFF era).
A.J. Green (CIN): AVG FPTS: 15.7 | SD: 5.1
Even though A.J. Green was on a bad offense, he still put up good fantasy numbers in the eight games he played last season. Going into Week 9, Green was WR7 before his injury forced him to miss four games, only to return in Week 13 to get another injury that finished his season.
Green has been the clear number one target for Dalton in that offense, but Green will start the season missing games again due to an injury suffered in the first week of the preseason. When he is healthy, Green is a good and consistent (SD 5.1) fantasy player but his health is what is keeping him off the field.
Going at an ADP of 53 and WR29, Green could be a nice addition but only for the last half of the season. The question is if he returns, can he stay healthy to justify that draft spot?
Least Consistent
Amari Cooper (DAL): AVG FPTS: 12.7 | SD: 12.5
Amari Cooper‘s career and fantasy value were resurrected when traded from Oakland to Dallas. Before the trade, Cooper was WR40 in five healthy games, averaging 5.2 targets. During his nine games with the Cowboys, his average targets increased to 8.4 and he was the WR7 from Week 9 to Week 17. Cooper also had two of the top-six wide receiver performances throughout the entire season — scoring 35 FPTS in Week 12 and 44.7 FPTS in Week 14.
Why he was the most inconsistent wide receiver from the top-29 wide receivers was due to his seven games where he failed to reach ten or more FPTS. In Oakland, he never saw the consistent volume as he did in Dallas, although four of his games that failed to reach 10 FPTS were when he was suited up for the Cowboys. He didn’t have much time to get acclimated to his new team so some of the inconsistencies he saw in Dallas could have been due to a lack of chemistry and familiarity in the offense. Now that he has had half of last season and a full offseason to build rapport with Prescott, his numbers should be more consistent.
To make Cooper’s situation a little murkier, he is currently dealing with a left foot injury that is jeopardizing his availability come Week 1. Cooper has shown games that he can put up some big numbers and also games where he looked non-existent. At his current ADP of 32 and WR13, you have to be confident that he and Dak will be on the same page and his foot injury won’t linger through the season.
Calvin Ridley (ATL): AVG FPTS: 10.9 | SD: 8.9
In his first year in the NFL, Calvin Ridley finished the year as WR19 in half-PPR formats. He had ups and downs in fantasy production like any rookie in the NFL. From Weeks 2-4 he was the overall WR1, but from Weeks 5-7 Ridley was WR54. This was the main theme for Ridley’s season but expected since he has Julio Jones catching balls across from him. As long as Jones is healthy, he will be Matt Ryan’s main passing target.
For 2019, Ridley should see his role expanded as he becomes more comfortable in the offense. He is currently going at an ADP of 55 and WR25 in drafts. Is it too high for a guy that will always be second or lower on his team in targets? Or do you believe in Ridley’s talent to grow into a bigger role in the offense?
Michael Thomas (NO): AVG FPTS: 15.8 | SD: 8.6
When Brees targeted Michael Thomas last season, Thomas caught everything — literally almost everything. Thomas had an 85 percent catch rate from his targets last season, an NFL record. The problem for his lack of consistency isn’t due to talent — it’s his quarterback.
Drew Brees was one of the more inconsistent QBs last season (see my QB consistency article for more information) which impacted Thomas’ production. He had the lowest percentage of games (63) of the top 12 wide receivers being drafted this year that hit the WR3 threshold. If you are taking Thomas at his early ADP of 9 and WR5 overall, just acknowledge matchups where Brees may struggle or when the Saints are on the road. Brees’ home-road splits last season were 16.1 AVG FPTS away and 25.1 AVG FPTS at home.
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Kevin O’Connor is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kevin, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @22kconnor.
