Round-By-Round Targets Based on Early ADP: Rounds 1-8 (2020 Fantasy Football)
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As we move further into the off-season, many of us will use the extra free time we have to start mock drafting. But you don’t have to start from square one. Below are round by round targets that have value based on their current average draft position. Use these targets to help you navigate the early rounds and build a solid foundation for your team. They are by no means prescriptive, and every draft you do will bring a unique set of challenges. However, by looking for the names below in each round, you will give yourself the best opportunity to dominate your draft.
|1||Christian McCaffrey (CAR)||RB1|
|2||Saquon Barkley (NYG)||RB2|
|3||Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)||RB3|
|4||Michael Thomas (NO)||WR1|
|5||Alvin Kamara (NO)||RB4|
|6||Derrick Henry (TEN)||RB5|
|7||Dalvin Cook (MIN)||RB6|
|8||Davante Adams (GB)||WR2|
|9||Joe Mixon (CIN)||RB7|
|10||Tyreek Hill (KC)||WR3|
|11||DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)||WR4|
|12||Nick Chubb (CLE)||RB8|
Round 1 Targets
In my time spent playing fantasy, I have never seen such a shallow group of top receivers. Given the lofty numbers that Thomas put up last year, there is a credible argument for taking him as high as second overall pick (Christian McCaffrey is should be 1.1 in every draft). There are so many things to love about this offense and, if the addition of Emmanuel Sanders increases its efficiency, any reduction in target share for Thomas should be more than offset by increased yards-after-catch (YAC) opportunities. Last year he put up the lowest YAC per reception of his career.
It is so hard to look past the week-winning upside that Tyreek brings to the table any given week. The scary thing about it is that he managed to put up almost a top-30 WR finish (31st) while only playing 10 games. In every game he played, he put up over 10 points while recording the lowest yards per reception and YAC numbers of his career. The amount of room for improvement here is scary.
The presence of Kareem Hunt is the only thing that is stopping Chubb from being a top five pick. People will point to the lack of touchdowns once Hunt returned, but let me reassure you that was purely circumstantial. This is one of the more talented runners in the league. He is playing behind an above average O-line in a high-volume offense. Getting him at the back-end of the first-round screams value.
|13||Josh Jacobs (LV)||RB9|
|14||Aaron Jones (GB)||RB10|
|15||Patrick Mahomes (KC)||QB1|
|16||Julio Jones (ATL)||WR5|
|17||Lamar Jackson (BAL)||QB2|
|18||Chris Godwin (TB)||WR6|
|19||Travis Kelce (KC)||TE1|
|20||George Kittle (SF)||TE2|
|21||Miles Sanders (PHI)||RB11|
|22||Austin Ekeler (LAC)||RB12|
|23||Kenny Golladay (DET)||WR7|
|24||Kenyan Drake (ARI)||RB13|
Round 2 Targets
The argument here is similar to the one made for Michael Thomas. This is your last chance on a player who could end up being WR1 overall on the season. Due to the lack of risk-free receivers past this point, it is worth investing, especially if you have gone RB in the first round.
Ekeler genuinely has top-5 RB upside, especially for those of you doubting Tyrod Taylor‘s ability to run a successful offense. While Tyrod will almost certainly hold a significantly lower average depth of target (ADOT) than Philip Rivers carried last year, that’s almost never a bad sign for a receiving back. If anything, I would argue that Tyrod’s bad case of interception-phobia means more check downs for Ekeler. That uptick in receiving volume (combined with the departure of Melvin “the vulture” Gordon) should more than offset any backwards step the Chargers offense takes in 2020.
|25||Mike Evans (TB)||WR8|
|26||Adam Thielen (MIN)||WR9|
|27||Amari Cooper (DAL)||WR10|
|28||Allen Robinson (CHI)||WR11|
|29||Leonard Fournette (JAX)||RB14|
|30||Chris Carson (SEA)||RB15|
|31||Melvin Gordon (DEN)||RB16|
|32||Cooper Kupp (LAR)||WR12|
|33||Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)||RB17|
|34||Le’Veon Bell (NYJ)||RB18|
|35||Mark Andrews (BAL)||TE3|
|36||D.J. Moore (CAR)||WR13|
Round 3 Targets
Fournette may end up being the single most valuable early-round pick this year. Last year, Fournette finished as a top-10 RB on the virtue of volume alone. The Jaguars offense is returning pretty much every offensive starter next year and there is very little reason to assume that any of that volume is at risk. While, admittedly, this is not a sexy pick, you are going to be drafting a top running back as close to his floor as you will see at this point in the draft.
Every year, Kupp is criminally under-valued. This is one of the highest-volume passing attacks in the league, and Kupp is the major beneficiary of that. Moreover, he posted the lowest efficiency numbers of his career last season (probably due to the increased volume) and there are a huge number of free targets up for grabs In this offense. Barring injury, WR12 is right about where I would put his floor.
|37||A.J. Brown (TEN)||WR14|
|38||Devin Singletary (BUF)||RB19|
|39||Zach Ertz (PHI)||TE4|
|40||Courtland Sutton (DEN)||WR15|
|41||Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)||WR16|
|42||Mark Ingram II (BAL)||RB20|
|43||James Conner (PIT)||RB21|
|44||Calvin Ridley (ATL)||WR17|
|45||Todd Gurley (ATL)||RB22|
|46||Keenan Allen (LAC)||WR18|
|47||Dak Prescott (DAL)||QB3|
|48||JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)||WR19|
Round 4 Targets
Odell Beckham Jr.
As we move into the fourth round, the well of players who come without risk dries up, and you start having to look for upside. Odell has upside in spades. This offense is going to see a huge uptick in efficiency going into next year and OBJ stands to be the biggest benefactor. I, for one, am willing to write off last year as a statistical anomaly and bet on his talent in what should be a high-volume offence.
Brown put up a historically efficient rookie season. That efficiency is certainly going to go down along with the rest of the Titan’s offense. However, the regression of the offense may end up being a net positive for Brown. It would be foolhardy to expect this team to be able to lean on Derick Henry in the ways that they did last year. Brown is set for a huge uptick in targets as Tennessee is forced to rely on its passing game.
|49||Darren Waller (LV)||TE5|
|50||T.Y. Hilton (IND)||WR20|
|51||David Montgomery (CHI)||RB23|
|52||Tyler Lockett (SEA)||WR21|
|53||Russell Wilson (SEA)||QB4|
|54||Kyler Murray (ARI)||QB5|
|55||Deshaun Watson (HOU)||QB6|
|56||David Johnson (HOU)||RB24|
|57||Jonathan Taylor (IND)||RB25|
|58||D.K. Metcalf (SEA)||WR22|
|59||Robert Woods (LAR)||WR23|
|60||Stefon Diggs (BUF)||WR24|
Round 5 Targets
I am officially planting my flag on David Montgomery mountain for the off-season. Here is the thing: while Tarik Cohen limits his receiving workload, there are no other backs on this roster that demand more than three or four touches a game. It would be shocking to me if we see Montgomery go under 200 carries on the season. That means he doesn’t have to get much better than he was in 2019 to return at least mid-range RB2 value for the season – a good piece of business in the fifth round.
A similar argument can be made for Woods as was made for Cooper Kupp – except his price tag is far lower. It would astound me if his ADP doesn’t go up as we move closer to the season.
|61||D.J. Chark (JAX)||WR25|
|62||Hunter Henry (LAC)||TE6|
|63||DeVante Parker (MIA)||WR26|
|64||Raheem Mostert (SF)||RB26|
|65||Deebo Samuel (SF)||WR27|
|66||Josh Allen (BUF)||QB7|
|67||A.J. Green (CIN)||WR28|
|68||Terry McLaurin (WAS)||WR29|
|69||Matt Ryan (ATL)||QB8|
|70||Drew Brees (NO)||QB9|
|71||Michael Gallup (DAL)||WR30|
|72||Marlon Mack (IND)||RB27|
Round 6 Targets
So long as you don’t take one of the three quarterbacks slated to go in Round 6, you can’t go too far wrong with the any of the names above. However, Samuel has the highest upside of the bunch (especially given the possible regression of the 49ers’ defense). This is another player with huge upside who you are getting right at his floor.
|73||Jarvis Landry (CLE)||WR31|
|74||Damien Williams (KC)||RB28|
|75||Cam Akers (LAR)||RB29|
|76||Derrius Guice (WAS)||RB30|
|77||Kareem Hunt (CLE)||RB31|
|78||Jared Cook (NO)||TE7|
|79||San Francisco 49ers DST||DST1|
|80||Austin Hooper (CLE)||TE8|
|81||Tyler Boyd (CIN)||WR32|
|82||Marquise Brown (BAL)||WR33|
|83||Sony Michel (NE)||RB32|
|84||Tyler Higbee (LAR)||TE9|
Round 7 Targets
This is the last round in which you can expect to secure a functional weekly starter at the running back position, and I strongly suggest you use this round to secure one. While there are a lot of names in this backfield (at the moment), Guice is the de facto starter in what may prove to be an ascending offense. While Adrian Peterson and game script may eat into his rushing workload, he is by far the most explosive receiving back on this roster. I am willing to bet on his talent in an offense where he could easily end up seeing the volume to finish in the top-30 RBs (provided he can stay healthy).
Similarly to Guice, the argument for Sony Michel lies in the volume that he is likely to see. If the Patriots intend to be competitive this year, they are going to have to be about as conservative as possible. It would not be a surprise to me if they end up being as run-heavy as the Ravens in 2020. Michel should, if nothing else, see the volume to return TD-dependent flex upside, which is about as good as you can hope for when taking a running back outside of the top-30.
|85||D’Andre Swift (DET)||RB33|
|86||Aaron Rodgers (GB)||QB10|
|87||Rob Gronkowski (TB)||TE10|
|88||Kerryon Johnson (DET)||RB34|
|89||Will Fuller V (HOU)||WR34|
|90||Julian Edelman (NE)||WR35|
|91||Evan Engram (NYG)||TE11|
|92||Brandin Cooks (HOU)||WR36|
|93||Ronald Jones II (TB)||RB35|
|94||Carson Wentz (PHI)||QB11|
|95||Tom Brady (TB)||QB12|
|96||Matt Breida (MIA)||RB36|
Round 8 Targets
Will Fuller V/Brandin Cooks
I trust Deshaun Watson to keep games interesting about as much as any quarterback in the league. One of these guys is going to end up as a top-24 receiver. Which one ends up taking the cake will be decided by who can stay the healthiest. At an eighth-round price tag, I am willing to buy myself a ticket to the sweepstakes.
His injury history and the remarkable depth at the position is keeping him far lower than he should be. This is a guy in an explosive offense that, when healthy, only put up fewer than 10 PPR points in one game last season. Don’t sleep on Engram. He could be a league winner.