Mock Draft SZN is in full swing and you know what that means: I’ve been mocking my face off for weeks. Mocks on the couch. Mocks at the office. Mocks in the bathroom.
I can’t help myself. I’m a full-blown mock draft junky.
I probably need help.
But hey, when it comes to fantasy football, we need all the help we can get, right?
To help you prepare for your 2QB fantasy football draft, I’m inviting you to join me for a “live” mock draft. Right now, at this very moment, I’ll conduct my own 2QB mock draft, walk you through each pick, and explain my rationale for every selection. But first, some context:
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Setting up a 2QB Mock Draft
I need to fire up the Fantasy Pros Mock Draft Simulator and enter the following settings:
League Type: 2020 Season
Scoring: Half PPR
Draft Type: Snake
# of Teams: 12
From here, let’s randomize my pick selection: 12th overall. I’ll take it, I guess, but now I need to dial in the typical roster positions for a 2QB league:
2 QB
2 RB
3 WR
1 TE
1 WR/RB/TE (FLEX)
1 DST
1 K
5 Bench
Pretty standard stuff. But now I want to customize my opponents, their strategies, and their position values. To do so, let’s adjust the simulator’s draft settings so I can mock against:
- All the fantasy experts
- Expert composite ADP
- Yahoo! Pre-Draft rankings
By customizing these settings, I can simulate the most likely scenario for my upcoming 2QB draft.
Now, in 2QB leagues, people often put a high premium on quarterbacks, so let’s set the position value for quarterbacks to “slightly high.”
The league settings are ready to roll, but what’s my strategy? Let me break it down for you.
1. Measure a player’s availability against his current ADP to determine his value
2. Use the Draft Predictor Tool to determine whether a player will fall to me in later rounds
3. Leverage the player news and notes I’ve read online all summer long
4. Combine independent research with good old-fashioned gut feelings
If a player checks all four boxes, more or less, I will draft him. It’s that simple.
2020 Fantasy Football 2QB Mock Draft
Pick 1.12 (12th overall): Michael Thomas (WR -NO)
Michael Thomas is the unanimous No. 1 wide receiver in all of fantasy football and has a current ADP of six. Right off the bat, drafting him with the 12th overall pick is sensational value. It’s a no-brainer pick, but just in case I’m not sure, the FantasyPros predictor tool tells me there’s a 76% chance that Thomas will be drafted before it’s my turn to pick again in the third round. If I take someone else here, Thomas’s draft odds would probably turn to 99%.
There’s no news or notes to suggest that Thomas won’t ball out again this season, and we already know that the NFC South is the shootout capital of the NFL (51.6 total points per game in 2019). My choice is simple. It’s only Round 1, and I’ve already gotten the steal of this mock draft.
? 2020 NFL PLAYER PROPS: MICHAEL THOMAS, 1,404.5 RECEIVING YARDS ?@danharris80: OVER@MikeTagliereNFL: OVER@bobbyfantasypro: UNDER@KyleYNFL: OVER@MikeSpector01: UNDER
Which side are you on? pic.twitter.com/nv0MkJ5USh
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) June 5, 2020
Pick 2.01 (13th overall): Julio Jones (WR – ATL)
I’ve got back-to-back picks on the wraparound, and I’m staring down Davante Adams (ADP 12), Joe Mixon (ADP 13), Kyler Murray (ADP 14), and Julio Jones (19). All of these players would be great picks, and I know that none of them will return to me in the next round. Should I go running back or wide receiver?
Pairing Michael Thomas with Davante Adams would give me the most formidable one-two punch in the league, but then I’d be losing out on a top-notch running back. According to the predictor tool, I’ll be looking at guys like Todd Gurley, Chris Carson, and James Conner with my third-round pick, and I’m not crazy about drafting any of them as my RB1.
But I can’t pass up this tandem of wideouts. I’m about to draft Davante Adams, but my gut kicks in: Take Julio Jones instead! He’s just too consistent, averaging 103 receptions for 1,565 yards in each of the last six years. And look at this! Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons ranked third in red zone passing last year. In the dome, in that division, with that offense — I’m taking Julio Jones.
Pick 3.12 (36th overall): Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN)
Okay, so those running back predictions were pretty accurate, but I think I can make this work. Let’s see who we’ve got. Todd Gurley? No, I’m worried about his knee problems and I need my RB1 to be ship-shape. Leonard Fournette? I don’t like the addition of Chris Thompson and his target-stealing touches on a bad team. James Conner? Love the guy, but I don’t love his staying power in the Pittsburgh backfield. Melvin Gordon? The Denver Broncos traded for him to be their feature back (two years, $16 million) and Broncos beat writers are already saying he’s the Week 1 starter. His ADP is 48 in this format, so technically this is a bit of a reach, but I don’t care. He’s mine.
Pick 4.01 (37th overall): Carson Wentz (QB – PHI)
I generally like to wait on quarterbacks, but this is a 2QB league, and nine signal-callers have already been drafted. If I don’t take one now, I’ll be looking at Daniel Jones, Ben Roethlisberger, or Cam Newton as my QB1. Not great.
Carson Wentz is looking like a tasty proposition, though, and there’s a 94% chance he’ll be drafted before I have another shot at him in the fifth. The knock on Wentz is that he can’t stay healthy, but he did start all 16 games last season. And even though the Eagles receiving corps is, shall we say, well-seasoned (DeSean Jackson is 33; Alshon Jeffery is 30; Zach Ertz is 29), the Eagles do have some young blood in rookie wideout Jalen Reagor and pass-catching running back Miles Sanders.
Let’s not forget that Wentz finished as the ninth-best fantasy quarterback last year, averaging more than 17 points per game (better than Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady). I like Wentz to have an even better fantasy season in 2020.
Pick 5.12 (60th overall): David Johnson (RB – HOU)
Back in June, I predicted that David Johnson will be an NFL Comeback Player of the Year candidate in 2020. And why not? He’s coming off a sluggish year, but now he’s expected to handle lead-back duties in an all-new backfield. Remember when Houston Texans Head Coach traded away all-world wideout DeAndre Hopkins to acquire David Johnson back in March? The move was panned and O’Brien was roasted—but that has to mean he’s more committed to David Johnson than ever. There’s a chip on both their shoulders, and I expect to see Johnson carry the ball close to 300 times this season.
Who else is on the board, you ask? Le’Veon Bell, Mark Ingram, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, and Raheem Mostert. None of these guys scream “bell-cow” the way David Johnsons does, and even though his ADP is 66, that’s close enough for me. (As an aside, I still really love David Montgomery this season).
? DRAFT EXPERTS HEAD-TO-HEAD: DAVID JOHNSON ?@ScottSmithFF, the No. 1 RB draft ranker in 2019, has David Johnson as the RB15 in 1/2 PPR rankings.@FansFantasy, the No. 2 RB draft ranker in 2019, has Johnson as the RB21.
Whose side are you taking? pic.twitter.com/gZZP5545lz
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) August 5, 2020
Pick 6.01 (61st overall): D.J. Chark (WR – JAC)
Speaking of volume and opportunity, how about D.J. Chark here in the sixth round? I don’t think that anyone expects the Jaguars to be very good this season, and that could mean a fair share of garbage time for the team’s bona fide No. 1 wideout. With an ADP of 69 and a 99% chance of being drafted after this pick, I’m all about taking Chark as he represents a fair value and is just oozing with upside.
Compared to other wide receivers in this range, such as Keenan Allen, Courtland Sutton, and D.K. Metcalf, I trust Chark to finish with more targets, yards, and touchdowns. Don’t be surprised if I try to steal his quarterback Gardner Minshew later on in this draft — that’s a stack I’m dreaming about for 2020.
Don't sleep on D.J. Chark!
(with @MattHarmon_BYB) pic.twitter.com/elJhc1IBjC
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) May 17, 2020
Pick 7.12 (84th overall): A.J. Green (WR – CIN)
Nooo! Gardner Minshew was sniped one pick before I could take him here. That’s. Just. Brutal. I hate to admit it, but I’m on tilt. I’m looking at guys like Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Philip Rivers, Drew Lock, and Teddy Bridgewater right now.
But who’s this? Derek Carr with an ADP of 112 and just a 17% chance of being drafted? Maybe I can snag him later, and I’ll tell you why if it happens…
But for now, who’s the best non-QB available? How about A.J. Green? With an ADP of 81, he’s a great value. And there’s no way he makes it to the end of the eighth round. As for the news and notes on Green, they’re pretty excellent. He’s spent the offseason training to avoid injuries, accepted the Bengals’ franchise tag in a “prove it” type of year, and has finally returned to full health. We know A.J. Green can put up 1,000-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns when he’s playing at 100%, which is a gamble I’m more than willing to take on my WR4 in Round 7.
Wow, we’re already about halfway through this thing (hours for me, minutes for you. What a world). Anyway, here’s what the squad looks like so far:
QB1: Carson Wentz
QB2:
RB1: Melvin Gordon
RB2: David Johnson
WR1: Michael Thomas
WR2: Julio Jones
WR3: D.J. Chark
TE1:
FLEX: A.J. Green
K:
D:
I feel pretty good about this. Let’s see how she wraps up.
Pick 8.01 (85th overall): Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN)
Guys, I need a quarterback here. I like Derek Carr as a value pick later, but I’m getting a little nervous, so let’s just roll with Kirk Cousins. His ADP of 93 and 70% predictor rating indicates he’ll be gone before my next pick, so I am going to pull the trigger and look at the bright side:
- Cousins’ floor is 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns
- Adam Thielen is a top-tier receiver
- Rookie Justin Jefferson is poised to make an immediate impact
- New play caller Gary Kubiak is heralded as an “offensive guru”
- Tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. are key safety valves
It’s worth mentioning, too, that Doug Kubiak loves targeting his tight ends, so look for the same opportunities to benefit Cousins in 2020. It’s not a sexy pick, but it’s a satisfactory plugin at QB2. In fact, I like him better than some of the guys who were picked before him: Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Daniel Jones, and Joe Burrow.
Pick 9.12 (108th overall): Jordan Howard (RB – MIA)
I’ve gone through nine rounds, and I only have two running backs. That… seems like a mistake, so let’s see who’s available. Jordan Howard. Philip Lindsay. Kerryon Johnson. Tevin Coleman. Marlon Mack. Yikes. I could handcuff Lindsay to Gordon, but I’d rather diversify my backfield, so I am going to take Howard (ADP 100).
As I pointed out in April and again in July, Howard is a mid-round running back who has a good chance to return RB1 numbers. The fifth-year rusher should lead the Dolphins on early downs and get the ball near the goal line. While I’ve since changed my tune slightly since April and July (I now think Matt Breida could outperform Howard in a C.J. Spiller-type of role in Chan Gailey’s offense) I still think he could get 10 to 12 touches per game. With his current ADP what it is, I’ll chalk this up as a win and hope the ‘Phins can muster up some possessions in the red zone this season.
Pick 10.01 (109th overall): Zack Moss (RB – BUF)
I’ve done a million different mock drafts in a few different formats, and Zack Moss is always available to me in Round 10. Despite a preposterously low ADP of 166 (what are people thinking?!) I know that Moss will not make it back to me in Round 11, as he has a 70% chance of getting drafted before then.
Here’s the deal with Moss—he is going to get carries on a run-heavy Bills offense that is better than people think. We’re going to be looking at 200 carries and 20 targets at the very least for Moss in 2020, and if he steps in as RB1 for Buffalo this season, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. Can you say the same thing about Tevin Coleman or Sony Michel right now? No, the upside for Moss is far superior to any other running back in this range. I’m taking Zack Moss here all day, every day.
Zack Moss will fit right in. ?
?: #NFLDraft on ABC, ESPN, NFL Network pic.twitter.com/hapDEatKHp
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) April 25, 2020
Pick 11.12 (132nd overall): Derek Carr (QB – LV)
Sniped again! I can’t understand how Hayden Hurst lasted as long as he did, but he finally goes one pick before mine here at the end of Round 11. No worries, though. Since I didn’t get one of the big three tight ends, I will scrap up decent one later. Right now, I am going to shore up the quarterback position. Enter Derek Carr.
With an ADP of 112 and a 78% chance of being drafted, I need a QB3 with massive upside. True, I passed up Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater just now, but here’s why: Derek Carr will be playing with the best receiving corps of his entire life. Yes, better than Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. With Henry Ruggs III, Lynn Bowden, Bryan Edwards, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow, among others, the Raiders have set themselves up to throw the ball, throw the ball, throw the ball. If this offense catches fire, Carr could breach the top-12 conversation by midseason.
Pick 12.01 (133rd overall): Rob Gronkowski (TE – TB)
Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady. Tampa Bay. It’s Round 12. Why not? Gronk’s ADP is 88, which makes him the bargain of a lifetime at 133rd overall. What’s more — and we haven’t looked at this yet — he’s the 11th ranked tight end in half-PPR formats. Did I just score a top-12 tight end in the 12th round? Yep, sure did. Huge win right here.
Pick 13.12 (147th overall): Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
Okay. At this point, we’re done looking at ADP. We’re just going to pick the guy who we think has the best opportunity to see snaps and make an impact. Why is it Justin Jefferson? Because he immediately inserts himself into a Vikings offense that desperately needs to fill the void left open by Stefon Diggs and his 94 targets from 2019. While Cousins will likely move the ball around (especially to his tight ends as we’ve already mentioned) it stands to reason that Jefferson will absorb a fair amount of looks all season long. He’s a fresh weapon on a good offense in a competitive division. As a WR5, Jefferson is as good as gold.
⭐ 2020 NFL DRAFT PROFILE: WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON ⭐
"When you put on the tape, Jefferson is open on nearly every single play."
Here's @KyleYNFL with his complete breakdown on Justin Jefferson, who could be the first WR off the board at the #NFLDraft:https://t.co/hGVPqyAmic
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) March 8, 2020
Pick 14.01 (148th overall): A.J. Dillon (RB – GB)
Justin Jackson is probably the better player here, but in Round 14, I’m letting my big ol’ gut call the shots. As much as I love Aaron Jones as a football player and fantasy asset, there’s no chance that we don’t see the rookie rusher, Dillon, eat into some of his carries. The tide seems to be turning in Green Bay, doesn’t it? It’s starting to feel like the team wants to get younger quicker. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Aaron Jones out and A.J. Dillon in at some point in 2020, whether it’s due to a timeshare or big-time trade.
Pick 15.12 (162nd overall): Wil Lutz (K – NO)
Wil Lutz! He’s a kicker on the Saints. Let’s take him in the 15th round of this draft and never speak of this moment again.
Pick 16.01 (163rd overall): Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were the best available defense on the board, plain and simple. If I cared about making the right pick here, I would have taken a closer look at the Week 1 matchups for each D/ST available. But that’s an article for a different time. Maybe next week, perhaps? See you then!
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Jim Colombo is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Jim, check out his archive and follow him @WideRightNBlue.
