The 2022 NFL season is approaching, and that means it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. What better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we’re also going to have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.
One of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft is knowing who to target. Sure, there could be ‘value’ that presents itself through the draft, but it’s important to know which players you should not only target as values but also those you need to circle on your cheat sheets and prepare to reach for if needed. Here are Andrew Erickson’s top players to target in 2022 fantasy football drafts.
Be sure to pair this with my early-round draft strategy to DOMINATE your league this year.
Andrew Erickson’s Players to Target
QUARTERBACKS
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
Keep moving Jalen Hurts up your 2022 quarterback rankings. Not only do the Eagles own the second-easiest schedule overall, but they boast the third-easiest schedule to open the season through the first four weeks.
Layup matchups against the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Arizona Cardinals round out Hurts’ first five opponents before Dallas in Week 6 and Philly’s bye in Week 7.
With Hurts’ aggregated ADP resting at QB7 at 67th overall, I am drafting him in every single fantasy football draft in Round 6. The Eagles quarterback has been a top-12 fantasy finisher in 85% of the 20 games he’s played a full four quarters.
And there’s no reason to think that Hurts won’t continue producing in fantasy with the addition of A.J. Brown. The former Titan’s absurd efficiency and YAC-ability in Tennessee was a primary driving force behind Ryan Tannehill‘s fantasy success. The Eagles ranked second in screen rate a season ago, so anticipate plenty of plays where Hurts just dumps the ball off to AJB for massive chunk gains.
Hurts is an easy top-five fantasy quarterback next season after finishing 2021 fifth in expected fantasy points per game and first in quarterback rushing yards — 53 per game.
There’s also a solid chance that the Eagles don’t run back their run-heavy approach and instead look to the air more often with Brown in the fold.
Hurts averaged 35 passing attempts per game — 10th-ranked 63% overall pass-play rate, second-ranked neutral game script pass-play rate on early downs — through the first six weeks of the 2021 season. That number fell to 25 — 28th in neutral game script pass-play rate on early downs from Week 7 onward. The Eagles would go on to finish the season dead last in pass-play rate.
The sky’s the limit for the Eagles’ passing game in 2022. Fly Eagles fly.
Trey Lance (QB – SF)
The Trey Lance era has finally begin after reports surfaced that the 49ers have decided to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo… even if he remains on the roster.
Garoppolo’s shoulder surgery is the only reason he hasn’t been traded. Once he is deemed healthy, I’d presume he gets moved to a QB-needy team or to a roster that sustains an injury at the position.
That sets the stage for Lance to start in Year 2 and smash for fantasy football.
Lance only started two games but showed off the rushing that excited fantasy managers during draft season. The 49ers’ first-year signal-caller averaged 22.4 expected fantasy points and 60 rushing yards per game.
He’s got league-winning upside as a late-round quarterback often available outside the top-12 drafted quarterbacks.
Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
Justin Fields has plummeted to QB17 in ADP. Everyone is afraid of the situation in Chicago. But don’t forget that a washed-up Cam Newton went from irrelevant to a top-12 ranked QB in one week last year because of rushing production.
Fields finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in his last four full games in 2021, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game. He also averaged 56 rushing yards per game over his last six. All in all, Fields averaged 35 rushing yards per game during his rookie season. The last three rookie QBs to do so? Newton, Josh Allen, and Robert Griffin III. They all finished as top-12 fantasy quarterbacks in their second seasons, with the two former QBs finishing top six.
It won’t take long for the narrative to spin on the talented Fields after he starts the season hot out of the gates. Five of the Bears’ first six matchups are against secondaries that are the weak part of their respective defense, lost talent in free agency, and/or are unproven. In Week 1, Fields takes on the 49ers. He rushed for over 100 yards against them last season.
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN)
The Minnesota Vikings passer finished as the QB11 in total fantasy points and QB12 in points per game in 2021. And his new head coach comes from an offense that threw more aggressively on early downs under neutral game scripts; fifth-highest rate over the past two seasons. The Vikings ranked 27th in the category.
Don’t be surprised to see Captain Kirk flirt with top-10 numbers in 2022. He finished last year as PFF’s fourth-highest graded quarterback.
Cousins also had more top-6 finishes (4) than Burrow, Jackson, and Derek Carr. QB15 ADP as of August 5th is blasphemy.
Jameis Winston (QB – NO)
The additions of Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are massive benefits for Jameis Winston.
Winston played with almost zero weapons a season ago and still managed to average 17.5 fantasy points per game — good for QB14 on the year. The Saints quarterback also finished the season with the league’s sixth-highest passer rating (102.8) and first in all QBs last year in fantasy points per dropback (0.64).
He also ranked fourth in aDOT, which lends itself to spiked fantasy weeks.
There’s just not enough hype about the QB22 in ADP who has a 5,000 passing yards season under his belt playing with an offensive coordinator who also had a QB posted over 5,000 passing yards.
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
Jones is one of my favorite late-round quarterbacks in deeper formats. Because before a Week 5 concussion, the polarizing passer was the QB8 overall in points per game (23.3). In addition, the Giants’ quarterback ranked third in rushing yards per game (47/game) and second in PFF passing grade.
This offseason, New York overhauled the offensive line. An improved front provides Jones the protection he desperately needs as he looks to prove to the New York organization that he is worthy of being the long-term answer at quarterback.
Recall that he played behind PFF’s third-worst graded offensive line last season.
Jones will also benefit greatly from the No.1-easiest strength of schedule for QB and Daboll, who claims he wants to unleash Jones in 2022. Danny Dimes is worth the flier outside the top-20 quarterbacks.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
Joe Burrow‘s massive second-year jump is encouraging for this year’s second-year QBs like Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville’s quarterback finished with the same expected fantasy points per game average as Burrow in 2021 (17.3) but underwhelmed tremendously in a poor situation. His -72.3 fantasy points versus expectation were the most of any QB in 2021.
Lawrence posted a season-high 85.1 PFF passing grade in the season finale, offering some hope that he can turn things around in 2022 with a new coaching staff and upgraded offensive personnel in place.
There’s a strong chance that Jacksonville dials up the passing attempts with Doug Pederson calling the shots on offense. During his five-year tenure in Philadelphia, only once did the offense not finish top 10 in pass attempts.
RUNNING BACKS
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
We’ve come full circle. Draft Saquon Barkley. 2022 is the year to buy back in.
He’s fully healthy and showed flashes of a top-10 fantasy RB just last year. In five games last season when Barkley played a full snap share with Daniel Jones under center, the Giants RB averaged 16.2 PPR points per game (RB10).
And before his freak injury versus the Cowboys, he averaged 23 points per game in his two healthy starts.
I see no serious threat for touches behind Barkley on the depth chart, and the Giants have all the reason to feature Barkley as much as possible for two reasons.
1) He’s the best player on the offense.
2) He’s an impending free agent.
Barkley is still an RB at just 25 years old who looks slated to recapture his rookie form when he caught 91 balls.
And good lord, Barkley is due for some more red-zone looks. The Giants’ horrible offense limited him to just 13 red-zone touches all last season.
With improvements across the board for Big Blue’s offense, Barkley will be the major benefactor.
Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)
It’s been a long journey for Leonard Fournette from his last days as “Fat Lenny” with the Jacksonville Jaguars to earning the moniker “Lombardi Lenny” due to his brilliant play for Tampa Bay the last year and a half.
He impressed the Buccaneers’ front office — and a certain No. 12 quarterback — enough to earn a three-year deal with his old team worth $21 million (up to $24 million with incentives). There’s zero doubt with his performance and contract that he will be the entrenched clear-cut starter for the Bucs, and that’s exactly the desired outcome for fantasy football.
Fournette ranked fifth in fantasy points and fourth in expected fantasy points per game before his Week 15 injury, leading all running backs in receptions (62). Upon his return to the lineup for the Buccaneers’ playoff matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, Fournette reclaimed bellcow duties, playing 86% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps to go with 22 touches for 107 yards from scrimmage.
With an all-encompassing skill set at just 27 years old, Fournette possesses easy top-10 running back fantasy appeal. He slides inside my early 2022 running back rankings as RB8 because a fantasy RB1 is exactly what he has been in a Tom Brady-led offense. Their offense throws more than anyone else in the league, ensuring Fournette continues to rep a high target share. His six targets per game last season tied D’Andre Swift for the most in the NFL.
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
The experts and sharps are convinced that Cam Akers sucks at football after he averaged an abysmal 2.4 yards per carry during the 2021 season after returning from his Achilles injury — the worst mark of any running back with at least 70 carries. But his inefficient production is partially related to the juggernaut of run defenses he faced down the stretch — San Francisco 49ers (twice) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers — when in fact no Rams RB ran efficiently. 9
5% of his rushing yards in 2021 came after contact — the highest mark in the NFL.
Did I also mention he was never even supposed to come back at ALL last season from his Achilles injury? If Travis Etienne came back from his injury and failed to perform, would that be held against his draft stock?
There’s simply too much emphasis placed on Akers’ production when touch volume is the key driver to fantasy success at running back. In the Rams’ divisional playoff win versus the Buccaneers, Akers played 81% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps and out-touched Sony Michel (signed with Miami this offseason) 27 to 3.
I expect Akers to be dialed back in as the top RB next season in Sean McVay’s consistent 1-RB offense, where the team’s lead back averages 20-plus touches per game. Darrell Henderson has proven he’s nothing more than a replaceable running back that the Rams continue to try and replace.
Not to mention, Akers has a cakewalk of soft run defenses to open the season: Bills, Falcons, and Cardinals. It won’t take long for Akers to pay off his early Round 4 ADP in a high-powered offense.
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAC)
Travis Etienne Jr. was a standout college football running back for the Clemson Tigers from 2017 to 2020 and was selected by the Jaguars in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft — 25th overall. However, his rookie season was cut short by a preseason Lisfranc injury. Some NFL personnel reported that Etienne could have come back towards the end of the year had the Jaguars been in playoff contention instead of being the league’s laughing stock.
Etienne is looking like his old self from an explosion standpoint in training camp, giving him a leg up on being the most productive running back as the Jacksonville Jaguars install a new offense under new head coach Doug Pederson. With James Robinson attempting to come back from a torn Achilles injury suffered on December 26, Etienne should be able to separate himself.
Do not forget what this guy did at Clemson with Trevor Lawrence as his quarterback. During his final season as a Clemson Tiger, he led the country in receiving yards and ranked second in receptions among running backs. Etienne also racked up the most rushing attempts of 20-plus yards (40) from 2018 to 2019 while only carrying the ball 20-plus times once since 2018.
With an explosive pass-catching skill set, Etienne checks off the requisite boxes of a fantasy RB poised to make noise in 2022. And he can be obtained for the suppressed price of a back-end RB2 as the RB20, per ADP.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
All Hall needs is to take on the workload from the Jets cumulative RB1 from last season — 240 touches, 14-15 per game — and he’s a lock to be a top-15 fantasy running back. Every running back that hit that touch threshold last season finished inside that ranking. Therefore, I am in on the rookie in the RB2 range even as a member of the New York Jets. Because the situation may not be as dire as most expect. Tevin Coleman and Michael Carter finished top-6 in PFF rushing grade over the last 8 weeks of the fantasy football season. If two inferior RBs were able to be efficient in a worse offense, then a college stud like Hall should easily meet/exceed expectations behind PFF’s 13th-ranked offensive line heading into 2022.
Devin Singletary (RB – BUF)
The Buffalo back was unleashed down the stretch for the Bills, finishing as the RB3 in half-PPR scoring over the final six weeks of the season with 15.8 fantasy points per game — while catching just 14 passes.
He gained the coaching staff’s trust by earning 54-plus snaps to close out the season, the highest snap number Singletary saw all season dating back to Week 1.
With a proven track record and two years of bellcow back usage in spurts, don’t be surprised when PFF’s fourth-ranked running back in rushes of 15-plus yards and seventh-ranked player in forced missed tackles in 2021 is the highly sought-after RB breakout who emerges from a high-octane ambiguous backfield.
Rookie James Cook is talented, but it remains to be seen how much work the undersized back will see from the get-go. As noted by the Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia, “It would be illogical to think Cook is going to step into a gargantuan role as a rookie while Singletary remains on the roster. Still, Cook’s skill set can help them use the rookie more creatively than their other backs.”
I also think it’s interesting that during a portion of early August training camp, the RBs were split into two different groups. Singletary, Zack Moss and Taiwan Jones stayed with the RB coach, while Cook and Duke Johnson Jr. worked with WRs. Ergo, an injury to Singletary doesn’t necessarily greenlight Cook to be the next version of his brother with Moss likely inheriting work on early downs in case of a Singletary injury.
Either way, you should always be trying to leave your drafts with at least one, if not both, Bills running backs because their upside in a high-powered offense is not being captured in their asking price.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
Stevenson experienced a very successful rookie season that should not be overlooked. After fully escaping the Bill Belichick doghouse in Week 9, Stevenson earned top grades across the board. He was PFF’s third-highest graded running back (84.2). Stevenson also ranked 13th in rushing yards and yards per route run (1.41).
For fantasy, the rookie running back was the RB25 in total points scored, eight spots behind his backfield teammate Damien Harris. Stevenson (93) and Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s remaining seven games. In the six games together, Stevenson slightly edged out Harris in expected fantasy points per game (9.3 vs. 8.9) with more favorable usage.
With impressive reports coming out of Foxborough as a receiver, Stevenson is a dark horse to see an expanded role on third downs with James White returning from a hip injury. The second-year back needs to be a priority target as the draft slips into the double-digit rounds.
He was PFF’s highest-graded rookie RB last year…putting him into a tier with the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara — all of who were top-8 fantasy RBs in their second seasons.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
Entering Year 3, it looked like Courtland Sutton was on the cusp of true elite fantasy WR1 production, but his 2020 season was lost due to a torn ACL in Week 2. It was unclear how productive Sutton would be returning from the devastating knee injury.
But to start the 2021 season, the Broncos wide receiver looked like his old self. He averaged 13.8 fantasy points per game (17th) and had a 27% target share in Weeks 2-7 during the regular season.
It wasn’t until Jerry Jeudy‘s return from injury that Sutton — and the rest of the Broncos’ pass catchers — became obsolete in a crowded, run-heavy offense led by a combination of Drew Lock/Teddy Bridgewater. Nevertheless, Sutton finished the season as the fantasy WR46.
However, even in the anemic offense, Sutton still finished seventh in air yards (1,756), cemented in between Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, in 2021.
Sutton has a real chance to recapture his elite form another year removed from his ACL injury. It also helps substantially that he has received an ultra upgrade at the quarterback position with Denver’s trade for Russell Wilson.
Wilson has always been an elite downfield passer — he had the sixth-highest passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards last season — which plays heavily into Sutton’s strengths as a vertical threat.
Based on the receiver’s track record of commanding targets near the pylon, I fully expect Sutton to emerge as Wilson’s go-to red-zone target. He led the Broncos in red-zone targets in 2021 and led all WRs in target rate inside the 10-yard line in 2019.
Wilson has an affinity for attacking receivers in the red zone; a Seattle WR has finished top five in red-zone targets for three straight seasons.
Simply put: The fit between Wilson and Sutton could not be better for 2022. And I’m not afraid to go all-in and declare that Sutton will be this year’s Cooper Kupp — the wide receiver drafted in the middle rounds of redraft leagues who takes a massive leap. He could easily lead the NFL in red-zone targets like Kupp did in 2021.
Removing the big-bodied Tim Patrick from the equation — 8 RZ TDs last 2 seasons — just further bolsters the case for Sutton in 2022.
Major quarterback upgrade, wide receiver entering Year 5, another season removed from an ACL injury, history of commanding red-zone targets, and high-end past production were all reasons why you should have bought into Kupp before the start of the 2021 season. And they are all reasons to be aggressive in drafting Sutton before this season kicks off.
He’s still reasonably affordable because of how strong the Jerry Jeudy hype is, even though the latter has still yet to do anything worthwhile in terms of fantasy two years into his NFL career.
The Broncos also open the season with a favorable schedule against suspect secondaries like Seattle, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Detroit. It’s the exact start for my Courtland Sutton to be this year’s Cooper Kupp prediction to be realized.
Denver’s playoff schedule also features potential shootouts against Kansas City, the Rams, and Arizona, further bolstering the case for heavy exposure of their players in summer best ball drafts.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
Michael Pittman got the true WR1 treatment from the Colts’ coaching staff in 2021, running a route on 96% of offensive dropbacks — third to only Cooper Kupp (WR1) and Ja’Marr Chase (WR4) through 17 weeks. He also finished the season tied for the league’s eighth-highest target share (24%), which was 11 percentage points higher than the next-closest Colt, Zach Pascal, at 13%.
He also made 18 highlight-reel contested catches — fourth-most in the NFL. His 31% target share from Weeks 13-18 cemented his place in Indy’s WR1 chair heading into 2022. And per PlayerProfiler.com route charting, Pittman ranked No. 2 overall in route run win rate.
With Matt Ryan under center, Pittman has the volume potential to be a top-12 fantasy option. Ryan has a history of fueling top-end fantasy WRs like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, making a top-five finish not all that crazy for Big Mike in 2022.
Don’t forget that last season, Ridley, as the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver, owned the sixth-highest target rate per route run and ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5).
Zero threats exist on the Colts’ roster to threaten Pittman’s top-eight target share. Finishing top 20 seems like his absolute floor.
Marquise Brown (WR – BAL)
Marquise Brown seems slated for a massive target share in the Arizona Cardinals’ pass-heavy offense, especially with DeAndre Hopkins sidelined early on. Brown has already shown the ability to command targets at a high rate after posting a top-12 23% target share last year with Baltimore.
The speedy wideout also commanded a whopping 27% target share back in 2018 at Oklahoma — the last time he played with quarterback Kyler Murray.
Brown’s role in the offense will likely be of the Christian Kirk variety as a vertical slot player that thrives off big plays. Kirk made the most of his opportunities — WR12 during the last four weeks without Hopkins in the lineup — so I’d bet Brown does the same.
The Cardinals paid a premium to acquire Brown, so fantasy managers should expect them to use him plenty. Brace yourself for Brown to skyrocket up 2022 rankings as a top-20 fantasy WR option with him destined to blaze through the first six weeks of the season as the Cardinals’ No. 1 WR.
He’s the perfect fit with Murray, who finished last season as PFF’s highest-graded passer on 20-plus air yard throws. Brown desperately needed a more accurate downfield passer after catching just 5-of-30 deep balls last season (16.7%).
A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)
The veteran has never played in a pass-happy offense. That doesn’t necessarily project to change too drastically if the Eagles run back their “operation ground and pound” from a season ago. Still, Brown’s talent has yet to hold him back amid a poor situation — WR5 in fantasy points per game in 2020 — and that shouldn’t stop in Philly.
The former Titan will be the alpha dog for the Eagles and remain a fantasy WR1 in 2022 fantasy leagues. Brown finished fourth in yards per route run (2.72) and in target rate per route run (28%) despite battling injuries last season.
And should any other pass-catcher on the Eagles miss time…AJB WR1 szn will be in FULL EFFECT. Per the Athletic’s Bo Wulf:
Mike Williams (WR – LAC)
Mike Williams had the opportunity to take his talents elsewhere this offseason in free agency but decided to stay in Los Angeles with quarterback Justin Herbert. It’s hard to argue with the choice to sign a three-year deal worth $60M attached to a young superstar quarterback, especially when that quarterback fueled a career year.
Williams posted highs in targets (122, 18% target share), receptions (76), and yards per route run (1.97, 15th). Through the first five weeks of the season, the big-bodied wideout was second in WR scoring behind only Cooper Kupp.
Big Mike finished the season as the WR23 in fantasy points per game despite cooling off considerably in the later weeks, in addition to leaving a boatload of touchdown production on the table.
He finished sixth in end-zone targets (16) but caught only five for touchdowns.
With positive touchdown regression set on the horizon and a resume that features a double-digit touchdown season, Williams appears primed to score 10-plus TDs in 2022 and repeat his WR12 finish in half-point scoring. Williams has commanded 40 end-zone targets since 2019. He has converted them into eight TDs – five of which came last season.
Nothing has really changed about Williams’ situation except Allen is another year older coming off his worst yards per route run output since 2014. Also, Allen’s 28% 2020 target share with Herbert dropped dramatically to 22% in 2021.
The sky’s the limit with the Chargers’ offense, and the production from touchdowns could easily vault Williams over Keenan Allen in fantasy across all formats despite the latter’s higher projected target share. He outscored Allen last year in half-point scoring, which is not reflected in their differing ADPs.
Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF)
Fantasy gamers were almost robbed of Gabriel Davis’ second-year breakout because the team elected to play veteran Emmanuel Sanders over him through the vast majority of the 2021 season. The Bills eventually saw the error of their ways and unleashed Davis from Week 14 onward.
The second-year wideout averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game (PPR) and 16.0 expected fantasy points per game in his last six games while running a route on 88% of dropbacks.
As a strong bet to earn the No. 2 wide receiver job come opening day, Davis has a legitimate shot to be a reliable fantasy option in a Josh Allen-led offense in 2022. Despite being a part-time player only the last two seasons, the former UCF Knight ranks top five in the NFL in total end-zone targets. Davis is also just one of two WRs to rank top five in yards per catch over the last two seasons.
The Bills’ big-bodied wideout is also just one of six players to score 13 receiving touchdowns while starting fewer than 17 games entering his third season. That list includes Calvin Ridley, Tyreek Hill, Dez Bryant, Martavius Bryant, Austin Collie, and Chris Henry.
Ridley, Hill, and Dez all smashed in Year 3. Bryant was suspended and Collie/Henry did nothing. But the latter two were buried behind multiple alphas in IND and CIN, respectively.
I’d hardly say that’s the case with Davis. Behind Stefon Diggs, it’s just a bunch of slot receivers and tight end Dawson Knox. Jamison Crowder has played 16 games once in the last four seasons. Isaiah McKenzie got paid special teams money. Khalil Shakir is an electric playmaker but is still a fifth-round pick.
Davis looks like clear No. 2 with a path for a full-time role and double-digit TDs well within reach.
He played fewer snaps per game than Olamide Zaccheaus, Mecole Hardman, Nico Collins, Tyler Johnson, and Jaylen Guyton in 2021. That won’t be the case in 2022.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
Over the final five weeks of the NFL season, Rashod Bateman became officially entrenched in the offense and ran a route on 88% of dropbacks. In Week 18, Bateman tied Marquise Brown with 40 routes run. But what’s most impressive is that Bateman had more receiving yards than Brown from Weeks 14-18 despite the latter seeing 18 more targets.
It’s a credit to Bateman’s per target efficiency that he was able to compile over 500 receiving yards on fewer than 70 targets his rookie season. The only first-round rookie WR to accomplish that feat since 2010 is Brandin Cooks – arguably the NFL’s most underrated wide receiver.
Entering 2021, the Baltimore Ravens traded Brown to the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, opening the WR1 role on offense. Bateman has the opportunity to step in and be the true No. 1 wide receiver for Lamar Jackson in 2022. With Brown’s 23% target share departure, Bateman can seize a massive role for fantasy as a high-end WR2.
TIGHT ENDS
Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL)
Did Dalton Schultz’s 2021 TE4 finish really come out of nowhere? The Cowboys tight end actually finished 2020 as the TE12 but was left for dead in preseason rankings due to the return of Blake Jarwin.
Jarwin getting hurt again solidified Schultz as the primary tight end in the Dallas offense, although he was already emerging as Dak Prescott‘s preferred inline option before Jarwin was lost for the season.
Coming off a stellar season as PFF’s sixth-highest-graded tight end (78.2), Dallas placed the franchise tag on Schultz off the career season and released Jarwin.
Big D’s No. 1 tight end wrapped up the 2021 season sixth in route participation (77%) and third in overall routes run (586). The highly-coveted role within the constraints of a high-powered offense ensures that Schultz will be in the back-end fantasy TE1 conversation for the third straight season.
Only Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews have scored more fantasy points at the tight end position since the start of 2020. Schultz’s ADP has him linked closer to the second tier of tight ends rather than the aforementioned elite group.
With Dak Prescott’s trust firmly in hand and Amari Cooper out the door, it’s possible that Schultz builds off his ninth-ranked 16% target share entering Year 5.
Zach Ertz (TE – ARI)
Zach Ertz’s return to form is a reminder there’s value to be had in drafting proven fantasy commodities after they have been written off by the drafting community. It’s a major takeaway I’ve had while constructing my 2022 rankings for all the positions: Finishing top 12 or even top five at each respective position should be held higher when it comes to ranking players going forward. They’ve done it before.
Following that precise approach would have led you to be overweight on Ertz in 2021, as the veteran was at the forefront of trade discussions all summer. He didn’t end up getting moved until Week 7 to the Arizona Cardinals, but his production took off after the trade.
The former Eagle averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (eighth). He also averaged just under five receptions per game and a team-high 20% target share while running a route on 84% of dropbacks.
Ertz undoubtedly got a major receiving boost without DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup, but that will be the case during the first six games with the Cardinals’ No. 1 wide receiver serving a suspension. Ertz was TE4 over that stretch with Hopkins sidelined, averaging seven receptions per game (24% target share).
His trust earned from the coaches and Kyler Murray to be a target hog in the Cardinals’ offense from the get-go bodes well for him to be a back-end fantasy TE1 with him returning to Arizona, even with the addition of rookie second-round tight end Trey McBride.
The starting tight end position is valuable for Arizona in fantasy, evidenced by not only Ertz’s performance but also Maxx Williams. Before the Ertz trade went down, Williams posted two top-six TE finishes in just five games played.
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
It’s bizarre to be so confident projecting a tight end breakout, but that’s how strongly I feel about Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet.
Because no tight end should make a bigger leap in 2022 than the third-year tight end, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons. But Graham’s currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022.
Kmet’s eighth-ranked route participation and seventh-ranked target share (17%) from 2021 hardly align with his fantasy production — no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021.
That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this past year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game.
The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields’ mobility — something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC.
An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022’s breakout tight end. He has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump.
Kmet checks off all the boxes for a tight end breakout, and that’s exactly why I have him ranked three spots ahead of consensus at TE10.
Albert Okwuegbunam (TE – DEN)
Albert Okwuegbunam tied for the third-highest target rate per route run in the NFL last season (23%) with Darren Waller and George Kittle. Now entrenched as the presumed full-time starter with Noah Fant traded to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason, the uber-athletic tight end can break out in Year 3.
It bodes well for Albert O that Noah Fant finished last season as the TE12 while the duo played in 14 games together. So although there are concerns about Denver’s third-round rookie draft pick Greg Dulcich eating into Okwuegbunam’s production, that rhetoric is likely being overblown.
Denver was already projected to feature 12 personnel — two TE sets — based on new head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s history. They ranked second in that particular deployment in 2021 while Hackett coached with the Green Bay Packers.
David Njoku (TE – CLE)
Newly-paid tight end David Njoku — four-year extension worth $56.75m — has a golden opportunity to break out in 2022 after an encouraging 2021. He set career-highs in PFF grade (70.9, 10th), yards per route run (1.56, eighth), and yards after the catch per reception (7.0, first) among tight ends who commanded at least 50 targets in 2021. In addition, the Browns cut Austin Hooper, which should open up opportunities for the athletic Njoku to take a major leap. Don’t be too quick to forget that Njoku already has a top-10 TE finish on his career resume.
Gerald Everett (TE – LAC)
Gerald Everett is easily one of my favorite late-round tight ends, so I am glad the consensus is finally starting to catch on. He was solid during stretches of the 2021 season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks.
Everett proved he can be the featured No. 1 tight end for the Chargers coming off a career year. He achieved career-highs in receptions (48) and receiving yards (478) and wreaked havoc with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles after the catch — sixth-most among tight ends.
His peripheral metrics in Seattle’s offense — 12% target share, 63% route participation, and 17% target rate per route run — were nearly identical to Jared Cook in the Chargers’ offense last season.
Cook finished as TE16 overall, which seems like Everett’s fantasy floor heading into 2022. The tackle-breaking tight end finished the 2021 season just .4 points per game short of Cook’s average (8.3 versus 7.9) despite playing in an offense that ranked dead last in pass attempts per game (29.1).
L.A. ranked third in that category last season (39.6). They also ranked ninth in TE targets overall.
Breakout tight ends are generally athletic players who earn above-average route participation in high-powered offenses. Everett fits the profile of next season’s star at the position. And he’s still super cheap at TE23.
Andrew Erickson’s 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
