Let’s talk high-risk draft picks for the 2022 season. This is a big list with big names. I’ve got 15 players within the top 75 overall ADP that pose a risk if you draft them.
That’s not to say I would never draft the guys on this list. I have and will likely draft some more. But this is a “proceed with caution” warning because these guys are high-risk players. They could leave your team in shambles.
15. Michael Thomas (WR – NO) – ADP: 71 overall and WR29
The good news is that Michael Thomas’ ADP has pushed him into the WR3 category. The bad news is that doesn’t really matter if he doesn’t actually produce. Drafting Michael Thomas could give you one of the most talented receivers in the NFL at a very cheap ADP and push you to victory. But you’re also drafting a guy we haven’t seen catch a touchdown since 2019. This could be the Comeback Player of the Year…or you could be looking at the next A.J. Green.
14. T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET) – ADP: 67 overall and TE7
T.J. Hockenson got off to a fantastic start last year, putting up nearly 50 fantasy points in his first two games combined. But that was with the Lions’ receiving corps being nonexistent. As the season continued, his production became very inconsistent and he averaged 10 points per game through the remainder of the season. That’s just not enough production to justify drafting him at his ADP. It’s way too risky and I’ll be passing on him for players that can produce the same statistics at a much cheaper ADP.
13. Marquise Brown (WR – ARI) – ADP: 54 overall and WR21
Marquise Brown is in line to be Kyler Murray‘s main target through the first six games of the season with the suspension of DeAndre Hopkins. This will be fantastic for Brown’s value. But what happens when Hopkins returns? Through the first seven games of 2021 when Hopkins was healthy, Arizona’s WR2, Christian Kirk, averaged 13.7 points per game. If Brown took that same trajectory, those first six games won’t be enough to justify his ADP.
12. Amari Cooper (WR – CLE) – ADP: 57 overall and WR23
Amari Cooper’s fate is 100% tied to Deshaun Watson. If Watson plays, Cooper could have a WR1 finish. If Watson is suspended, Cooper is stuck with Jacoby Brissett and there’s very little chance he even finishes as a WR2. He’d be lucky to average even 10 points per game in PPR. With so much unknown, Cooper is a big risk.
11. J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL) – ADP: 49 overall and RB23
With J.K. Dobbins, drafters are banking on a LOT of things to go right for him to have any upside. Dobbins is still not a guarantee to start the season healthy. And when he does return to the field, it’s very possible the Ravens limit the young back’s workload to ease him back into action. There’s just not a ton of upside here, and in this ADP range, you’re passing over players at other positions with high upside.
10. Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAC) – ADP: 45 overall and RB22
Travis Etienne Jr. has quickly gone from a fantastic value pick to a high-risk option with his ADP continuing to rise. It’s really simple with Etienne: If James Robinson is unable to start the season, Etienne will be a three-down back. But what happens when Robinson is good to go? Etienne could still see enough rushing work combined with receptions to pay off. But on the other side, he could be forced into a committee on a bad team that can’t move the ball. It’s definitely a high-risk, high-reward situation.
9. George Kittle (TE – SF) – ADP: 43 overall and TE4
George Kittle has been a lock for top-five finishes at the position when playing the majority of the season. But with the 49ers officially moving on to Trey Lance, there’s an unknown factor around just how much pass volume the offense will push. Between Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, who had a strong finish to the season, there simply might not be enough volume to support another top-five finish.
8. Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) – ADP: 41 overall and WR15
Jaylen Waddle’s rookie season was spectacular, finishing with just over 100 receptions, 1,000 yards, and six touchdowns. He was poised to move forward as Miami’s WR1 until they traded for Tyreek Hill. And while Waddle is immensely talented, you have to wonder if the Miami offense and Tua Tagovailoa can feed both Hill and Waddle enough to justify such a high pick.
7. Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) – ADP: 40 overall and RB20
Josh Jacobs is coming off his second top-12 finish in total points per game in PPR and finished as RB14 in average points per game. He’s typically a lock to pay off at his ADP. So, what’s the issue this year? If the Raiders’ new coach, Josh McDaniels, opts to take a New England-type approach to the running back room, Jacobs’ production would suffer, making him a risky option for your team.
6. Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) – ADP: 37 overall and RB19
Antonio Gibson had a difficult 2021 season, playing through injury the majority of the season. But he still managed to produce a top-12 season in total points despite injury, lack of involvement in the passing game, and inconsistent usage. Unfortunately for Gibson, the Commanders continue to show a lack of confidence in him; J.D. McKissic is returning to assume his pass-catching role, and third-round draft pick Brian Robinson could be a factor as well, limiting Gibson’s upside.
5. Cam Akers (RB – LAR) – ADP: 31 overall and RB17
Cam Akers was poised to take over the Rams’ backfield in 2021 before tearing his Achilles. And while he made a miraculous return at the end of the season, he didn’t look particularly good. Perhaps it was too quick of a comeback for Akers. It’s encouraging that the Rams immediately gave him priority in the backfield, but it’s still a possibility that he simply won’t be highly productive on the ground and will share part of the workload with Darrell Henderson.
4. A.J. Brown (WR – PHI) – ADP: 28 overall and WR11
A.J. Brown’s 2021 season was very underwhelming: 869 yards, five touchdowns, and 13.9 fantasy points per game. Brown has moved on to another run-heavy offense in Philadelphia that led the league in total rushing yards. The Eagles clearly want to invest in the pass, but Jalen Hurts is unproven as a passer. And if things don’t improve, the Eagles could just rely on their run game, leaving Brown as a big risk if you’re drafting him as your WR1.
3. Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) – ADP: 16 overall and WR7
Deebo Samuel’s 2021 season saw him finish as the WR3, averaging 21.2 fantasy points per game. But I wouldn’t bet on him repeating that production. The jury is out on whether or not Deebo will continue his workload on the ground. And the 49ers will be led by Trey Lance, who also happens to be very gifted on the ground. And if Deebo’s rushing statistics don’t continue and he’s primarily used as a receiver, with a healthy George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, it’s a BIG risk to draft him in the early second round over much safer receivers.
2. Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) – ADP: fifth overall and RB4
Let’s talk about another high-end RB1 with age, usage, and injury concerns. Derrick Henry averaged 24.2 fantasy points per game in PPR last year. Jonathan Taylor averaged 21.9. A full season of Henry is well worth a top-five pick. But much like McCaffrey, you have to wonder if the 28-year-old running back with nearly 7,000 career rushing yards is nearing the end of his spectacular run.
1. Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) – ADP: second overall and RB2
We’ll start off right at the top with Christian McCaffrey. It doesn’t get much riskier than a second overall pick that might not make it through even half the season. We know he produces overall RB1 numbers when he’s on the field. But we don’t know how long he will be on the field. Injuries have kept McCaffrey off the field for two seasons in a row, leaving us to wonder if he simply no longer has the legs to make it through a full season. If he plays a full season, you have a HUGE advantage. If not, better luck next year.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
