The Primer: Week 18 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

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Redraft season is over for many, but that doesn’t mean football is gone. Week 18 is a magical time to play DFS. With some teams pushing hard for the postseason and others sitting players, team motivations come into play and condense the field of players that we’ll look to roster in DFS. Below I’ve included Week 18 playoff and seeding scenarios and discussed them at the top of each game capsule. You’ll notice this Primer is condensed with some players and teams eliminated from my pool. If I omit a player or entire team in this article, the playing time is a dice roll not worth taking, or the team is in shambles and not worth investing in. At the end of this article, I’ll have my GPP and core plays listed in the same style as my weekly regular season DFS cheat sheet.

Embrace the volatility. Follow playing time. Enjoy the final week of the regular season.

Let’s win some cash. I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

KC -9.5, O/U 52.5
Chiefs vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The No. 1 seed and a bye are still in play for Kansas City. Expect them to go all out. They could backdoor the No. 1 seed even if they lose, but the Chiefs want to put themselves in the best spot to get the bye.

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes will be the highest-rostered quarterback on this two-game slate in DFS for a good reason. Mahomes is likely near the top in every statistical category, regardless of what leaderboard you peek at. Mahomes is second in PFF passing grade, fifth in fantasy points per dropback, fourth in yards per attempt, and sixth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Mahomes should rip the Raiders apart through the air. Since Week 12, they have been 24th in passing yards per game, 19th in EPA per drop back, and 28th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Jarrett Stidham: I joked all last week about “Studham” starting for the Raiders, but apparently, the joke was on me. Last week Studham finished fourth in PFF passing grade, second in yards per attempt, second in passing yards (behind only Tom Brady), and 14th in adjusted completion rate. This week he faces a similarly stout Kansas City secondary. Since Week 12, the Chiefs have been fourth in success rate per dropback, tenth in EPA per drop back, and eighth in explosive pass rate allowed. Stidham is the unsexy third-best quarterback option of this two-game DFS slate, but he could easily rival the top dogs on this slate if the Raiders are pushed to throw. Studham’s Week 17 performance could be a total outlier, but if it’s not, he could be a solid value and an easy way to be different.

Player	Rushing attempts	Targets	Routes	Red zone opportunities
Isiah Pacheco	9	2	16	3
Jerick McKinnon	2	6	19	3

Isiah Pacheco: Since Week 13, Pacheco has settled into a steady role as the Chiefs’ early down grinder averaging 14.8 touches and 82.2 total yards. While McKinnon has crushed him in the high-value touch department over this period (McKinnon 29, Pacheco 16), Pacheco still leads the duo with 43.8% of the carries inside the ten-yard line. McKinnon will be the more popular play of the two, so Pacheco is your leverage route. Pacheco hasn’t been impressive as a rusher, but that doesn’t mean that in a one-game sample, he can’t outscore McKinnon. Pacheco ranks 30th in yards after contact per attempt, 39th in breakaway rate, and 40th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 75 rushing attempts). The Raiders have been in disarray as a run defense, ranking 25th in rushing success rate and 17th in EPA per rush since Week 12.

Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon has been masterful as the Chiefs passing down specialist in recent weeks. Since Week 14, he’s averaged 11.6 touches and 87.6 total yards, with most of his production coming through the air. Over his last four games, he has a 17.9% target share (6.8 targets per game), averaging 66.2 receiving yards with a 51.8% route run rate and 3.08 yards per route run. McKinnon has arguably been the team’s WR2 in this span, so stacking him with Mahomes is absolutely a viable strategy. McKinnon ranks fourth in yards per touch, first in yards created per touch, and eighth in yards per route run. Las Vegas has been a bottom-five defense against receiving backs all season, allowing the third-most receptions, most receiving yards, and third-highest yards per reception.

Josh Jacobs: The Raiders have no more meaningful games on the docket, so we may not see Jacobs in a 75% or higher snap role this week. Last week he played his lowest snap count since Week 8 (67%) with 21 touches and 95 total yards. Jacobs currently leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,608), and the closest competitor to steal the title would be Nick Chubb (1,448). Jacobs could get a limited workload this week, especially with it not taking much to put that crown out of Chubb’s reach. Jacobs is still in play for large-field tournaments but won’t make it on any of my single-entry or three-max builds. Jacobs is fourth in weighted opportunities, tenth in juke rate, and second in evaded tackles. Since Week 12, the Chiefs have been second in rushing success rate, 12th in EPA per rush, and 15th in explosive run rate allowed.

Brandon Bolden: If Jacobs is limited, this does bring Bolden into the GPP discussion. Last week Zamir White was inactive as he was dealing with an injury. If his practice reports are solid this week, you can throw him into the same bucket as Bolden. Last week Bolden saw his highest snap count (21%) since Week 3. Bolden isn’t a sexy name, but he could play meaningful snaps this week with pass-game involvement. Last year he was 12th in true yards per carry, third in yards per route run, and first in fantasy points per opportunity. The Chiefs have been tough on the ground, but they are giving to receiving backs. Kansas City has allowed the second-most receiving yards and most receptions to running backs.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: If you’re double stacking or loading up Mahomes with three pass catchers, Smith-Schuster and Toney should both be in your player pool. Smith-Schuster has a 17.8% target share (6.6 targets per game), 17.3% air yard share, and 15 red zone targets (14th among wide receivers). He ranks 11th in route run rate this season. Smith-Schuster will run about half of his routes in the slot. When inside he’ll match up with Tyler Hall (47.1% catch rate, 53.8 passer rating). When he’s on the perimeter, he’ll run routes against Amik Robertson (58.5% catch rate, 94.1 passer rating) and Nate Hobbs (72.6% catch rate, 109.7 passer rating).

Kadarius Toney: Toney has only played 30-32% of the snaps the last two games. In Week 17, he managed a 33.3% route run rate and 27% target per route run rate with 4.73 yards per route run (four targets, four receptions, 71 receiving yards). Since joining the Chiefs, Toney has a 27% target per route run rate and 3.23 yards per route run. He has three red zone looks over his last two games. While Toney might remain regulated to a part-time role, he has the efficiency to counteract the limited snap count. If he sees his playing time increase at least marginally, he could be one of the best plays of this small slate.

Davante Adams – Last week Adams hauled in seven of his 11 targets with 153 receiving yard and two scores. Adams doesn’t have a shot to secure the league wide receiving yardage title, but he is 13 receptions away from setting the Raiders’ single season mark for receptions. He also needs two more receiving touchdowns to tie Art Powell for the franchise record for a season. While these aren’t contract incentives, Adams could still be motivated for the ink in the record books or McDaniels could lean into it if Adams is close in game. Adams does carry the risk that he won’t play a full complement of snaps as well. Adams led wide receivers this year with a 32.9% target share while ranking second in deep targets and fifth in red zone targets. Adams was also eighth in yards per route run. Adams will run about 67% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (52.6% catch rate, 83.4 passer rating) and Jaylen Watson (66.7% catch rate, 100.0 passer rating).

Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow is someone to consider if you’re rolling 20-150 lineups. Josh McDaniels has cemented his status as a fake sharp this season utilizing 11 personnel on 65.1% of their snaps. This didn’t look any better last week with Renfrow (49.3%). This has regulated one of the team’s best wide receivers to part-time status all year. Renfrow has drawn a 14.9% target share and two red zone targets over his last three games. He will run about 77% of his routes against L’Jarius Snead (70.7% catch rate, 92.2 passer rating).

Travis Kelce: Just pull out a spoon and eat the Kelce chalk on this small slate. Kelce will carry one of the highest rostership percentages in this two-game slate. While I don’t disagree with it at all, there’s also leverage to be had by building lineups with two Mahomes’ pass catchers not named Kelce. This is also a slate that presents double tight end as an option for lineup building. Kelce has a 24.7% target share (third-best) while ranking eighth in deep targets and first in red zone targets among tight ends. Las Vegas ranks 22nd in fantasy points per game and catch rate allowed to tight ends. They have surrendered the ninth-most receiving touchdowns to the position.

Darren Waller: Waller has not played a full-time role since his return. Since Week 15, he has had a 13.8% target share with a 58.8% route run rate. Waller has played 40-57% of the snaps over the last three games. He’s been immensely efficient with a 2.66 yards per route run, but he’s only drawn one red zone look. Waller is in play, but he’s TE3 or TE4 on this slate. The Chiefs are 21st in DVOA against tight ends, allowing the fifth-most receiving touchdowns to the position.

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

JAX -6.5, O/U 40
Titans vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The winner of this game takes the AFC South crown. 3…2…1…Fight.

Trevor Lawrence: Jacksonville should look to deploy a pass-heavy approach this week against Tennessee. Since Week 9, Lawrence has played at an inspired level ranking second in PFF passing grade, 11th in yards per attempt, and fourth in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 12, Tennessee has been 32nd in success rate per dropback, 32nd in EPA per dropback, and 27th in fantasy points per game. Lawrence and Mahomes are my favorite quarterback plays for this slate.

Derrick Henry: Henry has been a nearly every down back over the last three games he’s played. In Weeks 14-16, he played 71-75% of snaps averaging 23.3 touches and 148 total yards. Henry ranks fifth in weighted opportunities and third in red zone touches. He’s also first in yards per route run, eighth in evaded tackles, and seventh in breakaway runs. Since Week 12, Jacksonville has been 21st in rushing success rate, 13th in rushing yards per game, and 13th in explosive run rate allowed. Henry could easily be the highest rostered player on this slate. There’s merit to fading him. If you’re traveling upon that dangerous path then Burks or Okonkwo make sense to wedge into a lineup.

Travis Etienne: Last week’s playing time should be taken with a grain of salt, as the Jaguars did not need to run their star back into the ground while trouncing the Texans. In Weeks 13-16, Etienne played 71-88% of the snaps averaging 19.8 touches and 84.3 total yards. Etienne ranks 16th in weighted opportunities, third in red zone touches, and 19th in opportunity share. He’s a big play waiting to happen, ranking 18th in yards per route run, 14th in yards created per touch, and fourth in breakaway runs. Etienne won’t be a popular play this week against a Tennessee run defense that, since Week 12, has been third in rushing success rate and fourth in EPA per rush. Where Etienne could have a productive day is in the receiving department. Tennessee has allowed the sixth-most receptions to running backs while ranking 19th in receiving yards. Etienne has three targets in four of his last five games.

Treylon Burks: Last week with Doubs under center, Burks had a 21.1% target share with an end zone target, a 76.2% route run rate, and 2.06 yards per route run (66 receiving yards). Burks is the Titans’ best instrument to move the ball in the passing game. He is 21st in yards per route run and 12th in route win rate. Burks will run about 84% of his routes against Tyson Campbell (since Week 11: 58.6% catch rate, 94.6 passer rating) and Darious Williams (Since Week 11: 42.3% catch rate, 69.2 passer rating). Since Week 11, the Jaguars have permitted the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to boundary wide receivers. While this is horrible for Burks, he has the overcome the bad matchup if Tennessee fuels him with volume.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: Here’s your seemingly thin, rando play of the slate. Westbrook-Ikhine only garnered two targets last week, but he’s a strong matchup play this week. Westbrook-Ikhine managed a 71.4% route run rate last week despite the limited targets. With two games of 72 or more yards receiving and eight or more targets this season, Westbrook-Ikhine has shown the ability to pop off for good games when the situation calls for it. He’ll run about 60% of his routes against the ever-burnable Tre Herndon (77.3% catch rate, 115.2 passer rating). Since Week 11, the Jaguars have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Christian Kirk: Kirk has seen a 22.9% target share with the 13-most deep targets and fifth-most red zone targets among wide receivers. He’s 25th in yards per route run and 27th in route win rate this season. Kirk has 78 receptions and 1,009 receiving yards this season. This could be money week for Kirk as he has contract incentives paying him $500,000 at 80, 90, and 100 receptions and 1,100 and 1,200 receiving yards. It’s time for Lawrence to get his number-one wide receiver a late Christmas gift. Kirk will run about 77% of his routes against Roger McCreary (71.3% catch rate, 112.9 passer rating).

Zay Jones: Jones has a 22.0% target share while ranking 17th in red zone targets and 32nd in total route wins. The last time these teams met, Jones snagged eight of his 12 targets for 77 receiving yards and a score. Jones will run about 60% of his routes against Tre Avery (56.8% catch rate, 105.3 passer rating) and Greg Mabin (66.7% catch rate, 96.3 passer rating). Jones could also get his pockets lined this week. He stands at 78 receptions and 802 receiving yards this season. Jones can collect $250,000 for reaching 80 receptions and another $250,000 for getting to 90 receptions. Jones can also pocket an extra $500,000 for reaching 900 receiving yards.

Austin Hooper: I know. You were expecting Chigziem Okonkwo’s name here, right. Sadly Okonkwo only ran eight routes last week, while Hooper saw a beautiful 66.7% route run rate and 15.8% target share (six targets). Hooper is a fantastic contrarian play. Jacksonville is 31st in DVOA, allowing the tenth-highest catch rate, third-highest yards per reception, and fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.

Evan Engram: Toss the last game out for the same reasons that we’re disregarding Etienne’s Week 17 performance. Engram destroyed this defense the last time he faced them with 15 targets, 11 receptions, and 162 receiving yards (two touchdowns). This is why he could rival Kelce as the most popular tight end on the slate (or at least get close). In Weeks 13-16, Engram played at an elite level with a 27% target share, 18.2% end zone target share, 77% route run rate, and 2.89 yards per route run. If Kirk and Jones don’t crush Tennessee, Engram certainly can. Tennessee ranks 32nd in receiving yards, 29th in receptions, and 28th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -7, O/U 42.5
Ravens vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Bengals have clinched the AFC North. With a win against Baltimore, they will finish as the No. 2 seed. If Cincinnati loses this game, they will be left with a coin flip to decide the site of a rematch of this game. The Bengals should be motivated to cash in a win. A Ravens’ win and a loss by the Chargers and Baltimore is the No. 5 seed. The Chargers play later, so consider Baltimore to go all out.

Joe Burrow: Since Week 9, Burrow has led all quarterbacks in PFF passing grade while also sitting at 11th in yards per attempt, third in big-time throw rate, and tenth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Burrow should have a field day. Since Week 12, Baltimore has been 28th in success rate per dropback, 28th in EPA per drop back, and 25th in yards per attempt.

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase remains “that dude” with a 29.0% target share (eighth-best), a 36.6% air yard share (ninth-best), and 24 red zone targets (third-best). Chase ranks 13th in open rate. Since Week 16, the Ravens’ outside corner duo has operated in zone coverage on 60.3-60.6% of their coverage snaps. Chase ranks 20th in PFF receiving grade and 27th in yards per route run (57.4% of his target volume against zone) against zone coverage (minimum 15 zone targets). Chase will run about 76% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (65.2% catch rate, 70.3 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (60% catch rate, 92.3 passer rating). Humphrey has only shadowed once this season, so I doubt he will follow Chase this week.

Tee Higgins: Higgins has an 18.6% target share, a 27.5% air yard share, and 12 red zone targets (29th). He ranks 26th in open rate. Higgins is 24th in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run (59.8% of his target volume has come against zone) against zone coverage (minimum 15 zone targets). A premium Burrow double stack for this slate. Sign me up. Higgins will run about 80% of his routes against Humphrey and Stephens.

Mark Andrews: With Huntley under center, Andrews has had a 33.3% target share (6.8 targets per game), a 30% air yard share, and 2.05 yards per route run. Andrews and Huntley finally got on the same page last week as Andrews secured all nine of his targets for 100 receiving yards. Since Week 11, the Bengals have been 21st in fantasy points per game and 25th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

ATL -4.5, O/U 40.5
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: Tampa Bay secured the fourth seed for the playoffs and has won the NFC South. They are locked into that seed; a win or loss won’t change that. Todd Bowles stated, “Right now, I’m planning on playing them. We’ll see as the week goes forward, but we can get better at a lot of things that we need to work on, and we don’t need to take our foot off the gas.” Currently, I’m fading the Buccaneers with so many strong offensive teams on the board that should play their starters for a full game. There’s no need to risk it with Tampa Bay. This is also without saying that outside of last week’s offensive explosion, this passing attack and offense have disappointed us for most of the season. If you want to tiptoe down this precarious path, I would double-stack or skinny-stack Tom Brady with Mike Evans and/or Chris Godwin. I’d avoid the running backs for the team. Running back ceiling is highly correlated to volume, and the workload could be split between Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White. Wide receivers can pay off their price tags easier on limited volume with a long score or two.

The Falcons have been eliminated from playoff contention but are in roster evaluation mode. I expect them to continue to get long looks at Tyler Allgeier and Drake London in this game. That’s why they are the only plays I want to focus on from this game.

Tyler Allgeier: Since Week 15, Allgeier has averaged 20.3 touches and 116 total yards. He’s played 55-59% of snaps over his last two games. Since Week 15, he’s seventh in carries, third in carries inside the ten-yard line (66.7% of the team carries inside the ten-yard line) and tenth in high-value touches. Allgeier should continue to crush this week. He ranks seventh in yards after contact per attempt, tenth in missed tackles forced, and sixth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 75 carries). Since Week 12, Tampa Bay has been 15th in rushing yards per game, 21st in explosive run rate, and 18th in fantasy points per game.

Drake London: Since Week 13, London has been seventh in targets per game (ten targets per game) with a 38.1% target share, a 50% end zone target share, a 45.6% air yard share, and 2.93 yards per route run. London ranks 21st among 82 qualifying wide receivers in open rate. Last week London ran 48% of his routes from the slot, which was a season-high, so we’ll see if that takes place again this week. If so, he’ll match up with Antoine Winfield (69.2% catch rate, 105.3 passer rating) for half of the game. London has run 80% of his routes on the perimeter this season, so he could easily see Jamel Dean (50.7% catch rate, 82.4 passer rating) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (61.1% catch rate, 86.7 passer rating) all day.

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Patrick Mahomes Jarrett Stidham Tom Brady Isiah Pacheco Jerick McKinnon Josh Jacobs Nick Chubb Brandon Bolden Zamir White JuJu Smith-Schuster Tyler Hall Amik Robertson Nate Hobbs Kadarius Toney Davante Adams Trent McDuffie Jaylen Watson Hunter Renfrow Travis Kelce Darren Waller Trevor Lawrence Derrick Henry Travis Etienne Treylon Burks Tyson Campbell Darious Williams Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Tre Herndon Christian Kirk Roger McCreary Zay Jones Tre Avery Greg Mabin Austin Hooper Evan Engram Joe Burrow Ja’Marr Chase Marlon Humphrey Brandon Stephens Tee Higgins Mark Andrews Mike Evans Chris Godwin Leonard Fournette Rachaad White Tyler Allgeier Drake London Antoine Winfield Jamel Dean Sean Murphy-Bunting