Welcome to Super Wild Card Weekend of the NFL, a jam-packed weekend of football for daily fantasy football enthusiasts, NFL sports bettors and those looking ahead to the 2024 best ball drafting season.
In this thrilling and final phase of the real NFL season. I’m here to equip you with the latest edition of the 2023-2024 usage report, packed with essential tips for fantasy managers and those looking to get on the wagering/pick action with the official 2023 fantasy football season in the books. Again, we often don’t cite Weeks 18 and on when we summarize the 2023 fantasy football season. But it’s doing an injustice to not take more information that these teams/players provide us as we set our sights on having an edge over our opponents in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Our focus has shifted from traditional buy/sell strategies to a “stock up/stock down” throughout the postseason. Expect direct DFS and PrizePicks advice for those looking for something extra to enhance your viewing experience.
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Now, let’s dive into the Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Football Forecast. 12 teams. 6 games. T.O. said it best. Get your popcorn ready.
Fantasy Football Forecast Wild Card Weekend
Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris was the leading rusher with 112 yards on 26 carries, scoring one touchdown (6 red-zone carries, 5 inside the 10-yard line). Jaylen Warren added 33 yards on 9 carries. It was the largest gap we have seen between the two RBs all season, in terms of carries. But both were productive. Each caught 5 balls on 5 targets.
Harris played 60% of the snaps to Warren’s 44%, the latter running more routes.
Mason Rudolph, at quarterback, completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards and one touchdown, achieving a quarterback rating of 115.0.
Diontae Johnson was the top receiver, catching 4 passes for 89 yards, including a 71-yard touchdown on 5 targets. But again, his role was limited to a sub-50% snap share.
The Steelers’ offense managed a total of 152 passing yards, with Rudolph spreading the ball efficiently among his receivers. George Pickens was a complete afterthought, receiving zero targets in the wet contest.
This was not a lack of playing time as he played 81% of the snaps. The defense dictated more short underneath passes, so Pickens didn’t get the rock. I’d imagine that won’t be the case next week as the Steelers play a more threatening opponent in the first round of the playoffs in a likely negative game script versus Buffalo, who could be down cornerback, Rasul Douglas.
Pat Freiermuth was also not involved again with Rudolph at QB. 2 catches for 21 yards on 2 targets. Played fewer snaps than rookie Darnell Washington. Still ran a route on 20 of 24 dropbacks. Diontae was at 19 of 24.
Houston Texans
It’s Devin Singletary‘s world and we are just living in it. Well, it’s his backfield in Houston at least. Singletary totaled 23 carries for 64 yards and 1 TD against the Colts while Dameon Pierce didn’t log a single snap on offense. Singletary played 88% of the snaps and had 3 carries inside the 10-yard line.
Among the WRs, Nico Collins‘ tear with C.J. Stroud continued. Caught all 9 of his team-leading 9 targets (35% target share) for 195 yards and 1 TD which came on a 75-yard scripted pass on the first offensive play of the game. He remains a YAC monster. “Only” 119 air yards.
Tight end Dalton Schultz was also involved, seeing 7 targets (27% target share). Caught 5 for 42 yards, but only one catch in the entire first half.
Schultz ran 21 routes on 31 of C.J. Stroud‘s dropbacks.
John Metchie III and Xavier Hutchinson (big slot) rounded out the No. 2 and No. 3 WRs respectively in routes run with Robert Woods inactive. Metchie only saw 2 targets and Hutchinson caught only one pass for 6 yards on 4 targets. Had another pass wiped off due to a penalty.
The Texans will host the Browns in the first round of the playoffs.
I like the MORE THAN on Singletary’s 59.5 rushing yards prop on Prizepicks this week. The Browns’ defense has been gashed on the road this season, allowing over 120 rushing yards per game. Although Singletary was held to just 44 yards the last time these teams played, he only had 9 carries in a total blow-out loss. No C.J. Stroud in that game either. Trust that in a tighter game, Singletary continues to feast as a rusher.
Same for Collins, who’s receiving yards line is set at 74.5 yards on Prizepicks. Hit the over on the 1st play against the Colts. Gone over in C.J. Stroud‘s last four games played. And at home this season with Stroud, Collins is averaging 111 receiving yards per game.
Given that the Browns are also a suffocating defense versus tight ends – fewest receiving yards allowed per game to tight ends – the targets should concentrate around Collins as the No. 1 threat. Might opt for the under on Schultz’s line set at 44.5 receiving yards. Gone under in back-to-back games. Also, there’s a chance that the Texans get some of their injured WRs back in the lineup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have been crowned the NFC South Champions and they will host a game in the playoffs with a 9-8 record. But their victory over the 2-15 Panthers was a STRUGGLE. Twice they got bailed out on TDs. Raheem Blackshear scored a 28-yard TD that came back due to holding. D.J. Chark fumbled into the end zone that reversed a 43-yard TD score.
The team accumulated a total of 113 rushing yards, with Rachaad White leading the way with 75 yards on 19 carries. Chase Edmonds chipped in as White was noticeably dealing with an injury during the game. White caught all four of his targets for 18 yards.
The passing game, led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, saw a total of 137 passing yards. Mayfield completed 20 of 32 attempts, with Chris Godwin being the top receiver, catching 6 passes for 51 yards on 7 targets (23% target share). The Buccaneers QB was also noticeably dealing with an injury throughout the game.
Mike Evans was the target leader with 8 looks but he only caught 3 passes for 22 yards. However, he had a massive drop on what could have been a huge passing play. He will get a chance for redemption versus the Eagles in the playoffs. 117 air yards as a massive buy-low target. Taking the MORE THAN on Evans’ 67.5 receiving yards prop this week on Prizepicks. He has 70-plus yards in four of his last 7 games played.
Same with Godwin, based on how bad the Eagles’ defense is at defending the slot (most fantasy points allowed). More than 57.5 receiving yards is too easy. 51 or more yards in 5 straight games.
Trey Palmer was also involved with a 19% target share.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns rested their starters in Week 18. Pierre Strong Jr. led the backfield, while Jerome Ford was used sparingly. He maintained his role as a receiver with 2 catches for 26 yards on 3 targets.
Cedric Tillman is a starter in 3WR sets and played, catching 3 balls for 43 yards on 6 targets (69 air yards, 24% target share). Note that in Week 17, Tillman ran the most routes while playing 95% of the snaps. Also commanded 3 red-zone targets.
The Browns will face Houston for a second time in the playoffs.
The tough matchup on the ground – aside from what Jonathan Taylor did to the Texans last week – should not be ignored. The Browns are one of the worst rushing offenses with Joe Flacco at QB.
Weeks 13-17, they rank +8% pass rate over expectation. Second in pass play rate on early downs. Their rushing EPA ranks 5th-worst.
Take the under on Jerome Ford‘s 43.5 rushing yards. Still in a committee that has 3 RBs being used. He’s gone UNDER 43.5 yards in more than half his games with Flacco at QB. Also held to just 25 yards the last time he faced the Texans in Week 16.
Should be another big game for David Njoku. The Texans are allowing the 5th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season (57.4).
The Browns’ tight end has been FULLY unlocked with Flacco as his QB. In Flacco’s five starts, Njoku has a 22% target share averaging 9 targets per game. 17.1 expected points per game in half-point scoring. But even before Flacco got there, Njoku had been HEATING up. Weeks 7-17, Njoku ranked first in expected fantasy points per game at 16.8 among all tight ends.
Lit up Houston for 6 catches and 44 yards on 9 targets back in Week 16. Love the MORE THAN on Njoku’s 59.5 receiving yards prop on Prizepicks.
And it’s hard to not just mix it up with another MORE THAN for Amari Cooper. It’s at 67.5 receiving yards. Went for 265 the last times these teams played…
Detroit Lions
It was more of the same for the Lions’ brass in a dominant win over the Vikings to close out the regular season.
Jahmyr Gibbs led the backfield with 13 carries for 30 yards (1 target) and 1 rushing TD (2 red-zone carries) to David Montgomery‘s 10 carries for 40 yards and 1 TD (2 carries inside the 10-yard line). Gibbs no longer loses out on red-zone work to Monty, as both guys see touches in the money area of the field.
Worth noting that Gibbs also out-carried Montgomery in the first half 7 to 4. Monty was sitting on 4 carries for 10 yards and zero TDs. Gibbs continues to edge out Montgomery in snaps and touches seemingly every week.
Here’s how their touches/snaps have shaken out since Week 10.
Gibbs has averaged a 57% snap rate to Montgomery’s 42%. Touches have been nearly identical in slight favor of Monty (15 vs 14.4). The rookie RB appears undervalued on DraftKings at just $6,500.
Amon-Ra St. Brown proved to everyone why he should have been a pro bowler. 7-144-1 on 10 targets.
However, the big win was not without casualties. Sam LaPorta suffered a hyperextended knee injury. His status for the playoffs is TBD. Kalif Raymond also got hurt. I’d expect the Lions to get Jameson Williams back, and lean on Josh Reynolds (7 targets in Week 18, two red-zone targets) for 5 catches and 44 yards. He also picked up another DPI and led the team overall in routes run.
Donovan Peoples-Jones will also see a larger role. Or, we just see even more RB touches.
They will host the Rams in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Revenge game for Goff AND Reynolds.
If LaPorta cannot go, expect an expanded role from James Mitchell. He had one catch for 24 yards and finished 3rd in routes run. Also played 81% of the snaps. He is $2,800 on DraftKings this week versus the 29th-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones dominated the touches yet again in Week 18, carrying the ball 22 times for 111 yards against a fierce Bears defense. Since returning to action in Week 15, Jones has led the NFL in rushing yards. In this game, he also caught all 5 of his targets for 30 yards. 82% snap share and 5 red-zone carries with A.J. Dillon inactive.
Christian Watson missed another week and Romeo Doubs got hurt in the game but the Packers’ passing game didn’t miss a beat.
This team has done an excellent job of surrounding Jordan Love with young talent.
Against the Bears, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton led the WR group to victory.
Reed is a straight-up baller folks, and I don’t know how he’s not the unquestioned alpha in this offense in 2024. Versus the Bears, he caught all four of his targets for 112 yards.
Melton and Wicks each earned 7 targets (22% target share). Melton went 5 for 62 (had a TD call reversed as an incompletion) while Wicks went 6-61-2 (2 red-zone targets). Even Malik Heath was efficient, catching 3 of his 4 targets for 9 yards.
Luke Musgrave returned from injury, but Tucker Kraft (3 catches for 30 yards on 3 targets) remained TE1. He played 90% of the snaps to Musgrave’s 15%. Led all Packers in routes run. Maybe it’s them slow-playing Musgrave’s return. But there’s no doubt which Packers tight end I want to draft in 2024 and target in postseason fantasy contests. Kraft singles baby.
Green Bay will play at Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. It’s a tough place for them to have to win a road game, but it won’t be for a lack of offensive firepower that GB falls short of the big upset.
Ergo, HAMMER the MORE THAN on Love’s passing yards prop on Prizepicks this week at 248.5 passing yards.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams beat the 49ers with Carson Wentz under center. He RUSHED 17 times for 56 yards and 1 TD. Wild.
More importantly, we got clarity about Kyren Williams‘ handcuff, Ronnie Rivers. Rivers led the backfield with 13 carries for 52 yards on a 51% snap share. Royce Freeman was next with a 40% snap rate.
Puka Nacua played enough to break the rookie receptions and receiving yards records going 4-41 on 6 targets. Still got a 26% target share. He shouldn’t be cheaper than Cooper Kupp on DraftKings this week ($7,400 vs $7,200).
Davis Allen started at tight end with Tyler Higbee out.
The starting WRs were Tutu Atwell, Tyler Johnson and Ben Skowronek. Demarcus Robinson played fewer than 40% of the snaps and drew a penalty on his one deep target.
The Rams will play the Lions (3rd seed) in Detroit. Just what everybody wanted. Jared Goff versus his old team.
Matthew Stafford is facing the Lions in Detroit in the postseason. The under/over is set at around 51.5 points. Giddy up.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles entered Week 18 with question marks around their playmakers’ health. DeVonta Smith/D’Andre Swift missed the game, and both A.J. Brown/Jalen Hurts got hurt during the game. However, the belief is all should be fine for the first round of the postseason.
During the game, Kenneth Gainwell was the RB1. 7 carries for 62 yards and 1 target. All in the first half. 38% snap share.
Quez Watkins (11 targets) and Olamide Zaccheaus combined for the most WR snaps. Julio Jones barely played with a 26% snap share (4 targets). Dallas Goedert played 35% of the snaps and had 3 targets. These numbers all came in the first half. Expect them both to resume full-time roles next week versus the Buccaneers.
The Eagles punted this game in the second half when they fell big on the scoreboard and realized the Commanders had no shot to beat Dallas.
The Eagles will face Tampa Bay on the road in the first round of the playoffs.
And I can’t help but love the under on Hurts’ passing yards prop at 237.5 passing yards. He’s dealing with a finger injury that could impact his throwing ability. Also, the number is just way too high.
Hurts has thrown for fewer than 237.5 yards in 7 of his last 9 games. WOOF.
Kansas City Chiefs
You can’t convince me this KC-LAC Week 18 game even happened.
The Chiefs rested anyone on the offensive side of the ball with a pulse. Mecole Hardman, Justyn Ross and La’Mical Perine started. Hardman was heavily involved from the jump, seeing 11 targets (38% target share) catching 6 for 77 yards (83 air yards). Perhaps they have a bigger role for him in the normal offense. He played 100% of the snaps and finished second in weighted opportunity among all WRs in Week 18.
Makes sense that after spending the start of the season with the New York Jets, the Chiefs look to get him more involved. Anything to get Marquez Valdes-Scantling fewer snaps (he was active but DNP). Richie James Jr. was second in snaps with 83%.
Justin Watson (starter) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire barely played.
KC is going to host the Miami Dolphins fresh off their Sunday night football loss. The Dolphins’ defense is hurt everywhere, but even against a fully rested Chiefs offense that might not be enough to jump-start this offense. Again, I am “fishing” for unders this game. The game total under I love, and that means we should look to bet passing yardage numbers.
Both QBs threw for fewer than 200 passing yards when these teams met back overseas. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 260.5 passing yards in 3 of his last four home games.
Tua Tagovailoa has tossed for fewer than 256.5 yards in four of his last five games. Also gone under in four of is last five road games.
Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard had 17 carries for 70 yards (4.1 average), 1 touchdown (5 red-zone touches), longest run of 12 yards on a 57% snap share. Led the backfield with 10 carries in the first half to Rico Dowdle‘s solo carry.
Dowdle played the No. 2 role after missing Week 17, with 9 carries for 46 yards (5.1 average), longest run of 20 yards.
Dak Prescott completed 31 of 36 attempts for 279 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, the longest pass of 32 yards, quarterback rating of 124.4.
Full target details for the Dallas Cowboys receivers in the mentioned game:
- CeeDee Lamb: 13 targets, 13 receptions, 98 yards, 2 TDs. 5 red-zone targets
- Jake Ferguson: 6 targets, 6 receptions, 69 yards
- Rico Dowdle: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 54 yards
- Brandin Cooks: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 39 yards, 1 TD. 3 red-zone targets.
- Peyton Hendershot: 1 target, 1 reception, 24 yards
- Tony Pollard: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 16 yards
- Jalen Tolbert: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 8 yards, 1 TD
- Jahleel Brooks: 1 target, 1 reception, 1 yard
- Michael Gallup: 2 targets, 0 receptions
Dallas will host Green Bay in the first round of the playoffs. The Packers’ defense has held up in back-to-back weeks against the Vikings/Bears. Dallas is a different animal. I think they might run wild against them.
Therefore, I am taking the MORE than on Pollard’s 57.5 rushing yards prop on Prizepicks. Went over last week and in 3 of his last four home games.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback Josh Allen led the team in rushing with 67 yards on 15 attempts, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, with his longest run being 15 yards. James Cook contributed 36 yards on 13 carries, and Leonard Fournette added 20 yards on 7 carries (1 red zone carry). Lenny played 21% of the snaps.
Cook had just 5 carries in the first half while playing 62% of the total snaps. A total of 4 red zone carries and also dropped a TD in the end zone. Two carries inside the 10-yard line.
Josh Allen also had a strong game passing, completing 30 of 38 passes for 359 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Khalil Shakir was the top receiver, catching all 6 of his targets for 105 yards, while Stefon Diggs added 87 yards on 7 receptions with over 100 air yards. Diggs’ snaps were back up to 88% and that translated to more on-field production. Ran a team-high 43 routes.
Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid also had a notable contribution with 84 receiving yards on 7 catches (22% target share, 8 targets). Kincaid’s snaps remained low at 55% but ran a route on 71% of dropbacks. Usage has bounced back to 7-plus targets in back-to-back games.
Trent Sherfield (38 routes run) and Dawson Knox (2 red-zone targets) each caught a touchdown pass, contributing to the Bills’ aerial attack. The team’s passing game was particularly effective, with Allen distributing the ball efficiently among multiple receivers.
Gabe Davis left the game with a left knee injury. Sherfield played more as a result – as did the other Bills WRs.
- Shakir: 6 targets, 6 receptions, 105 yards
- Diggs: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 87 yards
- Kincaid: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 84 yards
- Sherfield: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 24 yards, 1 TD
- Knox: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 22 yards, 1 TD
- Cook: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 16 yards
- Deonte Harty: 1 target, 1 reception, 12 yards
- Ty Johnson: 1 target, 1 reception, 9 yards
- Gabriel Davis: 2 targets, 0 receptions
Buffalo will host the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs. I like this opportunity to buy the number dip on Diggs after a solid game in Miami. The Steelers’ defense is one that should hardly be feared by WRs with them allowing 78-plus yards to at least one opposing WR since Week 12. Buffalo might be freezing temperatures, but Diggs could be heating up just at the right time for a Bills playoff run.
Shakir also has a GREAT matchup versus the Steelers’ slot-funnel defense in the playoffs. He’s been a stud when targeted, leading the NFL in catch rate (87%) and passer rating generated when targeted (133.6). Davis has caught 58% of the passes thrown his way this season. Shakir is only $3,400 on DraftKings this week.
Miami Dolphins
For the Miami Dolphins in their loss to the Bills in Week 18, the running game was efficient, totaling 108 yards on 20 carries.
De’Von Achane led the team with 56 yards on 10 carries, including a touchdown, and averaged 5.6 yards per carry. He had one target while playing 63% of the snaps.
Jeff Wilson Jr. also contributed with 45 yards on 9 carries while playing 48% of the snaps. Both guys had exactly 8 carries in the first half of the season.
Expect a snap split between Achane and Raheem Mostert upon the veteran’s return.
In the passing game, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa completed 17 out of 27 passes for 173 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions. The Dolphins’ main receiving threat was Tyreek Hill, who caught 7 passes for 82 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. Nearly 200 air yards and a 50% target share.
Tight end Durham Smythe also made a notable contribution with 3 receptions for 30 yards on 3 targets. Cedrick Wilson also saw 3 targets while playing nearly every single snap (96%).
With the loss to the Bills, they will head to KC in projected freezing temperatures in the Wild Card Round.
And although that seems to project better for the Chiefs ground attack, Miami is not a defense you can run the ball on easily. One of the few props we hit last week was the UNDER on James Cook against Miami’s stout run defense. Rinse and repeat here with Isiah Pacheco‘s rushing yards prop on Prizepicks set at 68.5 yards.
Dolphins are allowing the 5th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs at 77 yards. Under 3.9 yards per carry faced with the No.1 lowest explosive rush rate on defense.
Since the Dolphins’ Week 10 bye week, they have allowed two teams’ RBs to rush for more than 40 yards against them.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore sat main starters such as Lamar Jackson, Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers in Week 18. They still used many of their starting RBs, between Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Hill played the most snaps as the main change-of-pace RB at 54% while commanding 10 targets. Still the preferred pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Rashod Bateman played fewer than 50% of the snaps. Isiah Likely only played 33% of the snaps.
Note the last time we saw Bateman play with the normal starters, he low-key led the Ravens with 6 targets, catching four for 54 yards. 27% target share while leading the team in routes run.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers lost to the Rams in Week 18, after benching their starters. Elijah Mitchell started at RB, carrying the ball 14 times for 52 yards and 1 TD. Chris Conley, Ronnie Bell and Ray-Ray McCloud were the leading WRs for the 49ers. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel played limited roles, although Aiyuk still saw 4 targets. George Kittle did not play.
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