While I didn’t manage to add more cushion above my in Week 10, I kept pace by hitting on 3 of my 10 bold predictions. That brings me to 35% on the year and needing just 11 over the final 7 weeks of the season to hit my 30% goal. Keep in mind, a bold prediction is something the general public would give less than a 10% shot of happening, but I put it at 25% or higher. I’m hoping to nail five this week so I can reach the goal even before fantasy playoffs get underway. Here we go!
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#10 Deshaun Watson won’t be a top 15 QB this week
Watson currently has a 7.4% career TD rate. Here are the best QBs in NFL history: Aaron Rodgers 6.3%, Peyton Manning 5.7%, Tom Brady 5.5%, Dan Marino 5.0%. Something has to give. Either Watson will prove to be a mere human or he will shatter the record books as the greatest QB known to man. I’m inclined to bet on the first, but you do you. My issue with Watson continuing his success are threefold. 1) He has thrown just 23 passes per game over his last four weeks which is good for 31st in football in that time. He has rushed for just 67 yards in that time, down over 60% from his career average, and his offensive line is dreadful. Did I say three things? Let’s add another. Washington is a top three defense in the NFL this season. If you are playing him this week, all I can say is good luck because you’ll need it if you are relying on him keeping that 7.4% TD-rate.
Final Prediction: 19 for 24, 194 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 5 carries, 18 yards
#9 Blake Bortles will finish as a top 12 QB this week
If you remove the game where Bortles only played one half, you’ll notice that Bortles is quietly having another quality fantasy football season. His 19.1 fantasy points per game is better than Cam Newton and Tom Brady last season, the #2 and #3 fantasy QBs in that time. This, after three consecutive top 13 fantasy seasons by Bortles has to make you wonder if he really is a useful fantasy streamer from time to time. I’ll push my chips in on him putting up numbers once again in a potential shootout versus the Steelers.
Final Prediction: 28/43, 298 yards, 2 TDs, 48 rushing yards, 1 TD
#8 Alex Collins will end up a top 12 RB
There is no denying the fact that Collins is just mediocre, which is why Baltimore is a popular potential landing spot for Le’Veon Bell next season. He is a safe play each week, but rarely hits RB1 value. This week, however, I’m putting my money down on Collins who should see a season-high in touches and against the worst defense in the NFL. The Bengals, by the way, are his opponent, and you could essentially pull Peyton Hillis out of retirement(?) and bet on him to post a hundred yards on them. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco is banged up, Lamar Jackson is sick and Robert Griffin III should not be trusted to throw passes. With the game script, opponent and QB issues being what they are, you can expect a monster game from Collins.
Final Prediction: 22 carries, 107 yards, 2 TDs
#7 Doug Martin will rush for 100 yards
The last time Martin surpassed 100 yards in a game was back in 2015 when the Bucs gave him 27 carries. He took them for 235 yards. Martin is a vastly different player at this stage of his career and the offensive line ahead of him is much weaker than what he had in Tampa Bay, but his opponent this week is significantly easier than what he saw versus the Eagles in 2015. The Arizona Cardinals have surrendered a whopping 126 yards per game on the ground and a league-high in rushing touchdowns per game. The Raiders are also in their best-projected game script in over a month so don’t be surprised if Martin’s his carries jump to a season-high.
Final Prediction: 20 carries, 114 yards, 1 TD, 1 reception, 3 yards
#6 Todd Gurley will lead the Rams in receiving yards
The Chiefs have given up a load of points so everyone immediately assumes their secondary must be hot garbage. That couldn’t be further from the truth, however. In fact, they have given up the fewest yards per pass attempt to wide receivers of any team in football this year. How can that be? Well, it is because they have surrendered 733 passing yards to running backs which is further away from #2 in the NFL than #2 is to the #10 team. To put it simply, Kansas City is unbelievably awful at defending pass-catching running backs. There will be points galore in this game, and don’t be surprised if Gurley has his best game of the year.
Final Prediction: 14 carries, 68 yards, 1 TD, 11 receptions, 136 yards, 2 TDs
#5 Amari Cooper will be a top 12 WR
There is a reason Cooper was drafted in the 4th round as a high-end WR2 this season. He has the rare talent to take over a game and catch nearly 100 balls. Just because Oakland misused him entirely doesn’t mean that ability went away. Rather, he has looked every bit the part over the past two weeks with Dallas as their featured weapon. Don’t be surprised when he kicks it up another notch this week versus a lackluster Falcons’ secondary. Keep in mind, he is getting more and more acclimated with the new playbook every week so those 9 targets per game so far may eventually turn into 11.
Final Prediction: 10 targets, 7 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD
#4 Curtis Samuel will get in the end zone again
A lot of people don’t realize this, or likely just think it is a fluke, but Samuel now has 4 touchdowns in 6 games this season. What’s more, is that it has come on just 18 touches. As the season goes on, however, the Panthers have been getting him more and more opportunities. Samuel is an electric football player who can take any carry or reception to the house, and with 6 touches, he’s got as good of a shot as anyone on the Panthers.
Final Prediction: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 29 yards, 2 carries, 70 yards, 1 TD
#3 JuJu Smith-Schuster will outscore Antonio Brown
This happens from time to time, but projecting it is another thing since the rankings have them lightyears apart. Brown, as we know, will be shadowed by Jalen Ramsay, who is among the best cover corners in football. That didn’t stop Brown from a big game last year, but it came as a result of 19 targets. The biggest difference between that game and this one, however, is that A.J. Bouye, who may be better than Ramsay, was shadowing JuJu. With Bouye banged up this week after a two-week-long absence from a calf injury, JuJu could have another monster game.
Final Prediction: JuJu (8 tar, 7 rec, 104 yds, 1 TD), Brown (10 targets, 5 rec, 58 yards)
#2 Ricky Seals-Jones will end up a top 8 TE
Oakland is 6th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends so far this year, but they are number one in terms of points per target. In fact, they are first by a ton. This, despite a long list of subpar tight ends on their game log. You may think of Seals-Jones as another mediocre piece, but the fact of the matter is that he is a top three athlete at the position and has been extremely efficient with his targets. Add in the fact that the Cardinals have been increasing his targets since Byron Leftwich took over and fantasy owners should be licking their lips.
Final Prediction: 6 targets, 6 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD
#1 Eric Ebron won’t be a top 20 TE
You can bet on the guy with 10 touchdowns including three last weekend, but I won’t be joining you. The reason, of course, is that he is a clear-cut backup tight end. In fact, last week he was third among Indianapolis tight ends in terms of offensive snaps. Jack Doyle runs three times as many routes since he came back. There are so many red flags here including the six total targets for Ebron since Doyle returned. Be careful if you need a streamer this week. There are a handful of options available who are better bets than Ebron.
Final Prediction: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 28 yards
**Bonus Super Duper Bold Prediction**
Luke Willson will finish as a top 12 TE
Michael Roberts is inactive for this game, meaning Wilson will be the starter and see the vast majority of snaps and targets from this Lions’ tight end core. Add in that Golden Tate is gone and Marvin Jones is also out for the game and we are looking at a potentially huge target share for this no-named backup tight end, much like we saw with Jeff Heuerman two weeks ago for the Broncos. It isn’t an ideal matchup, but with targets typically come fantasy points.
Final Prediction: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 51 yards, 1 TD
Thanks for reading and happy football season!
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