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Players With High Floors in PPR Formats (2019 Fantasy Football)

Players With High Floors in PPR Formats (2019 Fantasy Football)

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A good fantasy team consists of both high-floor and high-ceiling players. But while high-ceiling players are consistently touchdown-dependent across scoring formats, the best stats for high-floor players varies based on what each scoring system rewards. In standard, yardage is king; in PPR, receptions rule. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the best options for high-floor performances in PPR formats.

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High-floor RBs

Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
The Panthers running back finished as the RB2 in PPR formats last season, just 0.3 points behind Saquon Barkley, with an average of 24.1 points per game. McCaffrey’s 107 receptions on 124 targets make him a PPR asset, and despite chatter that the Panthers may limit his snaps in 2019, they still plan to give him the same amount of touches. McCaffrey has a highly-efficient catch rate of 86 percent, which would cushion the blow from a small target reduction. If you’re lucky enough to land a top-5 pick in your league’s draft, taking McCaffrey would be a smart way to get your team started on the right foot.

The biggest argument for McCaffrey is his stable situation in Carolina. Although wideout Devin Funchess left in the offseason, the Panthers have kept their coaching staff and offensive personnel mostly unchanged. The team also failed to add anyone to their backfield who should challenge him for snaps. Since offensive coordinator Norv Turner is returning for another season with Ron Rivera, the pair will likely use McCaffrey much the same as they did last year. The most significant change for the Panthers will come along the offensive line, but that should help McCaffrey. Although the team lost underperforming tackle Matt Kalil and center Ryan Kalil, they managed to find upgrades elsewhere. To replace Matt, they drafted tackle Greg Little, whose tape demonstrates pass-blocking prowess. On a better Carolina team, McCaffrey is as much of a sure-thing floor option in PPR as you can get. To replace Ryan, the Panthers signed Matt Paradis, a proven starter on the Denver Broncos, who is ProFootballFocus’ fourth-ranked center since 2015.

James White (NE)
After Dion Lewis left New England, White replaced him as the team’s primary pass-catching back, and he finished 2018 as the RB7 with an average of 17.3 points per game. White was targeted at least three times every game for the Patriots, and he averaged 5.4 receptions and 7.6 targets per game. Fantasy drafters have cooled on White since last season, as he’s currently going off the board as the RB24. But there’s cause for optimism despite the Patriots’ additions of rookies N’Keal Harry and Damien Harris. As Mike Tagliere argued back in July, splits show that Rob Gronkowski’s retirement will open up some targets and scoring opportunities for White.

The best argument for White is the Patriots’ high-powered offense.  Top-scoring offenses produce the most top-tier running backs every season. Given the Patriots’ consistent success on that side of the ball, drafting White at his ADP is a smart decision. Despite the 2019 Patriots’ lack of star power at wide receiver and tight end, Tom Brady has routinely carried rosters full of replacement-level players to winning seasons. This year will be no exception, and it’ll mean another good season for White.

Austin Ekeler (LAC)
Ekeler is a high-floor option even if Melvin Gordon decides to return to the Chargers. He earned 106 rushing attempts and 53 targets last season, which he turned into 958 all-purpose yards and six touchdowns. But a closer look at Ekeler’s week-to-week stats shows his regular usage in the Chargers’ offense. He had at least seven touches in all but two of his appearances, and he averaged 6.6 yards per touch. Add that to his 2.5 receptions per game, and you’ve got a consistent seven-point player. Ekeler scored fewer than six points only three times in his 14 games, so he offers some respectable floor if you’re spread thin at RB.

If Melvin Gordon doesn’t return, however, then Ekeler’s floor goes way up. He may not ever be a featured back, but he’ll still take some of Gordon’s 66 vacated targets on the way to a higher reception count. And even if the Chargers have Ekeler split some of Gordon’s carries with Justin Jackson, there are a whopping 175 to go around. The Chargers may choose to run less without Gordon, but they’ll still run enough to benefit both backs. No matter how the Gordon situation plays out, Austin Ekeler will be a valuable floor option for your fantasy team.

High-floor WRs

Michael Thomas (NO)
Thomas has finished in the top-10 for receptions every year since he entered the league in 2016. He finished in the top three in 2017, and he led the league in receptions last season. His huge reception load has driven his PPR success: he finished as the WR6 in 2018 and 2017, and he wrapped up his rookie year at WR7. Those consistent numbers don’t tell the full story, however, as Thomas has caught more balls than the year before every season since entering the league. That’s not just because of an increase in volume; it’s also because he’s become a more efficient receiver. Between 2016 and 2017, Thomas added 28 looks to his target share. He saw fewer targets in 2018, but Thomas succeeded anyway, as he still managed to add 21 to his reception total.

Offensive stability will be a boon for Michael Thomas in 2019. The Saints are bringing back four of their offensive linemen from last season, replacing the retired center Max Unger with second-round pick Erik McCoy. The team parried the departures of Mark Ingram and Ben Watson with the additions of Latavius Murray and Jared Cook, who both offer similar skillsets to whom they are replacing. With that in mind, it’s unlikely that Sean Payton’s offense will change much this season. It’s also unlikely that Michael Thomas role will change much either. Why else would the Saints have paid him $100 million?

Robert Woods (LAR)
Woods has come a long way from playing second-fiddle to Sammy Watkins on the Bills. In 28 games for the Rams, he has amassed 215 targets and 142 receptions, good for 2,000 yards and 11 scores. Those stats give you an average of 5-71-.4, and it’s not far off from Woods’ week-to-week performances. The receiver caught at least five passes in all but two games, excluding Week 17. He notched at least 60 yards every week aside from Weeks 1 and 17, and McVay even let him run the ball 19 times. While Cooper Kupp’s return may limit his ceiling, Woods will still offer your team a high-floor option every week. He managed to put up solid numbers with Kupp in the lineup through half the season last year.

Fantasy drafters have been eager to take players out of McVay’s offense: Woods, Kupp, Todd Gurley, and Brandin Cooks are all top-50 picks. Cooks is currently going as the WR16, one spot ahead of Woods. Cooks is also ranked one spot ahead of Woods by FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings, but I still favor Woods here. While conventional wisdom holds that Cooks has more upside because of his deep-strike ability, the two players’ 2018 stats challenge that assumption. Through their 16 games together, Woods finished with 12 more yards on just six more receptions than Cooks, and the duo finished only one yard apart in yards per reception. You can chase Cooks’ fabled upside if you want to, but I’ll take Woods every time.

Jarvis Landry (CLE)
You can’t talk about high-floor players in PPR without talking about Jarvis Landry. FantasyPros correspondent Joel Bartilotta was right to hype Landry up earlier this month, as the receiver has only finished outside the top-20 receivers once back in 2014. The knocks on Landry are his less-than-spectacular 2018 and the arrival of Odell Beckham Jr., but neither of those factors will hurt his floor that much. While Landry only finished as WR18 last year, it was still a top-20 performance, even though it wasn’t as good as his WR9, WR13, and WR5 seasons the years prior. The good news is that Landry is poised for some positive catch rate regression. The wideout finished last season with an abysmal 54.4 percent catch rate, the lowest in his career. Through every season before 2018, Landry had caught 70 percent of his targets. He should rebound on this front in 2018, so he won’t need all of his 149 looks from last season to remain a high-floor player in PPR.

While Beckham’s arrival won’t be good for Landry’s target share, it will reduce the pressure imposed upon him by opposing defenses. And there are 111 freed-up targets to go around in Cleveland after the departures of Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson, Breshad Perriman, Darren Fells, Josh Gordon, and Rod Streater. Beckham’s targets won’t all have to come from Landry. And even with Beckham to compete with, Johnson’s departure opens up some opportunities for short-yardage work that Landry capitalized on in Miami. And if Beckham’s arrival does reduce his production, that doesn’t justify his bargain-bin WR27 ADP. He’s not just going to disappear in Freddie Kitchens’ high-powered offense. Landry should be drafted as a high-floor option until he shows us otherwise.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
Fantasy football players have short memories. Fitzgerald finished as the WR11 in 2016 and the WR4 in 2017, but his down year in 2018 has dropped his ADP to WR37. Can you blame him for playing poorly with Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen? Fitzgerald will be 36 during the 2019 season, but he’s still a PPR stud. He led the league in receptions in 2016 with 107, and he finished second in 2017 with 109. He should rebound in Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offensive scheme with Kyler Murray tossing him the ball.

I like Fitzgerald because of his WR40 ADP and his role in the Cardinals’ offense, as the pass-first team lacks quality options behind him. Sure, sophomore Christian Kirk should also play well in Kingsbury’s system, but who else is a proven option for Murray to throw to aside from David Johnson? The Cardinals are unlikely to keep 2017 third-round bust Chad Williams, and they could put 2019 fourth-rounder Hakeem Butler on IR. The team also has an underwhelming assortment of tight ends, with Ricky Seals-Jones, Charles Clay, and Maxx Williams on its roster. Rookies Andy Isabella and KeeSean Johnson might be industry darlings this offseason, but the Cardinals showed a lack of confidence in them by pursuing free agent Michael Crabtree. The worst-case scenario for Fitzgerald is still better than last season, as Kingsbury should increase the volume of pass plays in the offense. Besides, you won’t find anyone else this late in drafts who has led the league in receptions.

High-floor TEs

Delanie Walker (TEN)
Walker finished as the PPR TE8, TE2, TE5, and TE4 from 2014 to 2017. He played in only one game last season after injuring his ankle, but the tight will be returning to a Titans team that lacks talent elsewhere on offense. The Titans’ best offseason skill-position addition was slot receiver Adam Humphries, and the team’s other receivers aren’t that attractive. Corey Davis is good, not great. Taywan Taylor and Tajae Sharpe haven’t looked good enough to keep the Titans from looking elsewhere at wide receiver. And second-rounder A.J. Brown will need some time to adjust to the NFL and build a rapport with Marcus Mariota.

The argument for Walker is simple. If he returns to the same role that he left in 2018, history says that he’ll finish as a top-10 tight end. He earned at least 100 targets in all but one season with the Titans before his injury, and he averaged just under 900 yards in those years. Walker caught at least three passes in all but six of his 61 games from 2014 to 2017, and he was targeted at least five times in all but seven. There is a chance that his age will hold him back, but his cheap ADP at TE12 makes taking that risk worthwhile.

Jordan Reed (WAS)
Reed was proving himself as a reliable PPR tight end in last year before he got hurt (again). In the 12 games that he played before his Week 14 injury, he caught at least four passes in all but two games. He averaged just under 50 yards per game through that span. That kind of steady nine-point per game production would have been good for 144 points and TE10 last year, and Reed managed to come close to that mark with 119.8 points and a TE15 finish. Though he won’t be working with Alex Smith this season, he’ll have journeyman Case Keenum to toss him the ball. Keenum is a match for Reed, as his performance on the Minnesota Vikings propelled Kyle Rudolph to a TE8 finish in 2017.

As good as Jordan Reed has been for the Redskins, he is injury prone, and his hard helmet-to-helmet hit in last night against the Falcons is concerning. I’d recommend taking Reed around his 139 overall ADP only if you can secure another deep-play option at tight end like Mark Andrews (ADP 157) or Jack Doyle (ADP 183). That way you’ll be able to swap Reed’s high floor for another player’s upside depending on what your matchup demands. You’ll also be prepared for the worst if Reed can’t stay healthy.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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