New York Jets at New England Patriots
Total: 46.0
Line: NE by 18.0
QBs
Luke Falk: Stop it. You’re not playing him. If you’re thinking about it, get some help.
Tom Brady: We knew there was risk by playing him last week, as the Dolphins are a pushover team that will give fantasy owners headaches because there are so many ways to score points. The Jets aren’t nearly as bad as the Dolphins, though their secondary is the area they can be exploited. What hurts is that Brady will be without his starting left tackle Isaiah Wynn, who is reportedly dealing with turf toe. The Jets were without Quinnen Williams and C.J. Mosley last week, though we don’t know if they’ll be back for this game (both listed as questionable). The Jets rely on pressure, as their secondary isn’t littered with talent or anything. Brady has been pressured on 31 percent of his dropbacks this year, which is right around the league average. It’s going to be very hard for Gregg Williams to blitz Brady knowing the weaponry he has available. The Jets are also coming off a short week after playing on Monday night, though they don’t have to travel far to get to Foxborough. In two games against the Jets defense last year (although with a different defensive scheme), Brady threw for 533 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions on just 64 pass attempts. You should be starting Brady with confidence as a QB1 this week.
RBs
Le’Veon Bell: He now has just 128 rushing yards and no rushing touchdowns through two weeks, though his 93 yards and touchdown through the air have bailed out fantasy owners. The Jets are just not in a position to score very often and knowing the Patriots have allowed a grand total of three points through the first two weeks, it doesn’t seem likely they’ll have many chances in this game, either. The Steelers and Dolphins backfields each ran for just 25 yards against the Patriots. No, I’m not kidding. That’s 50 rushing yards allowed this season. There are already six running backs who have one run that’s totaled more than 50 yards. Yes, Bell is far better than the running backs on those teams, but the team around him is crumbling and they’re now down to their third-string quarterback. The Patriots allowed the 10th fewest points on the ground to running backs last year, but the 11th most points through the air. What you saw in Week 2 is what you’re likely to see in the foreseeable future for Bell, which is a low-end RB1 with a low ceiling. He’s a better cash play than a tournament one, but there are better options in both.
Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead: The Patriots were nearly 20-point favorites last week and the touch splits went like this: Michel 21, Burkhead 7, White 6, Develin 2. That’s a clear-cut workhorse situation, though Michel did lose a fumble late in the game last week. While the game was out of hand, Belichick has been known to make an example out of running backs who fumble. The Jets are likely to see plenty of rushing attempts this week, though it surprising to see the Bills and Browns running backs total just 36 rushing attempts against them in the first two weeks, which is the eighth fewest in the league. The Patriots averaged 34.8 rushing attempts at home last year, which ranked third to only the Ravens and Seahawks. Against the Jets, they totaled 30 rushing attempts and seven targets to the Patriots running backs in the first meeting and then 23 rushing attempts and eight targets in the second meeting. There’s work to go around, especially when you consider the fact that the Jets are starting a third-string quarterback in Foxborough. I’d be shocked if the Patriots ran the ball less than 30 times, which leaves plenty of room for production. Michel should be in lineups as a middling RB2 with massive upside, though he also has a very low floor if Belichick decides to punish him, so you want to stay away in cash games. Remember, eliminate risk. Knowing Michel is averaging 2.8 yards per carry, the Patriots may decide to play Burkhead a bit more, though you should be watching to see if they activate Damien Harris at any point, because he’ll steal touches. Burkhead should be considered nothing more than an RB4 who comes with more upside than most in that area. With all the talent at wide receiver, White is going to lose some targets, but he’s also going to be the forgotten man in the defensive gameplan. The Browns running backs just caught seven balls for 78 yards against them last week, while Devin Singletary caught five passes for 28 yards in Week 1, and he’s someone who caught just six balls during the entire 2018 season in college. White should be in lineups as a high-end RB3.
WRs
Robby Anderson: After matching up with Tre’Davious White in Week 1 and Denzel Ward in Week 2, Anderson gets his toughest matchup yet, as he’ll match-up with Stephon Gilmore, one of the best cornerbacks in all of football. In two meetings last year (while playing with an actual starting quarterback), Anderson totaled just 2/22/0 on five targets in the first meeting, and then just 3/24/0 on eight targets in the second one. Over the last 18 games, Gilmore has allowed just a 45.1 percent completion-rate in his coverage with just 12.6 yards per reception. Keep in mind that’s while covering opposing No. 1 receivers. Can Anderson get loose for one long play? Sure. Should you be relying on it? Nope. He’s someone you ideally leave on the bench this week.
Jamison Crowder: Going from Sam Darnold to Trevor Siemian to Luke Falk is quite the downgrade for Crowder, though he was able to snag four balls for 40 yards on six targets last week. Knowing how bad the offensive line is, combined with Falk’s inexperience, and you’re looking at a lot of checkdowns. It’s why Bell and Crowder combined for 16 targets in a game they threw the ball just 31 times last week. Time of possession is likely going to be a big issue for the Jets in this game, which will once again limit the pass attempts. Jonathan Jones is covering the slot for the Patriots, and he’s done a great job, allowing just 5-of-8 passing for 43 yards in his coverage over the first two weeks. He did allow six touchdowns in his coverage last year, but are we even expecting the Jets to have many red zone trips in this game? Crowder should be considered a low-ceiling WR4/5 option.
Antonio Brown: So, it turns out that Brown doesn’t need much time to get targets from Brady. He played just 24 snaps in his debut, which ranked fourth among receivers, but he saw a team-high eight targets, while no other receiver saw more than five of them. It netted results, too, as he caught four passes for 56 yards and a touchdown. He should’ve had even more when he demolished Eric Rowe on a route that had two full yards of separation, but Brady underthrew him. Brown is an elite separator and it didn’t take long for Brady to realize that. The Jets benched their top cornerback Trumaine Johnson last week, starting Darryl Roberts and Nate Hairston in his place. Roberts has been abused early on, allowing 10-of-15 passing for 112 yards and a touchdown. Hairston is a third-year cornerback who’s allowed a 113.1 QB Rating on 93 targets in his coverage. In his Patriots home debut, Brown can have a field day with this secondary. He should be in lineups as a high-end WR2 provided nothing else comes up over the next few days. *Update* Remember when I said that “provided nothing comes up” in the last sentence? Well, something came up. Brown was released by the Patriots and is likely done in the NFL.
Josh Gordon: Many will want to move on from Gordon after his two-catch, 19-yard performance against the Dolphins, but you shouldn’t be one of them. He was second to only Brown in targets and saw a whole lot of Xavien Howard in that game. Now that opponents have seen Brown play, he’s going to get the No. 1 treatment from opposing defenses. Fortunately, the Jets don’t have a true No. 1 cornerback. In fact, they may not have a cornerback who’d be starting on most rosters. If the alignment remains the same, Gordon will see a lot of Darryl Roberts in coverage. He’s a former seventh-round pick who’s never seen more than 53 targets in a single season. Over the last 18 games with the Jets, he’s allowed five touchdowns on just 65 targets in coverage. Gordon won’t be nearly as consistent with Brown on the field, but he’s going to have some big weeks. This could/should be one of them. Keep him in lineups as a high-upside WR3 who makes for a great tournament option. *Update* With Brown now off the team, Gordon should walk into his old role and though he’ll be much more heavily owned, he still makes for a great tournament option. He needs to be in lineups as a WR2 in season-long leagues.
Julian Edelman: In his first game alongside the monsters Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon, Edelman saw four targets. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 of 2016 to find the last time he saw that few of targets in a game. Before that, it was Week 8 of 2014. Yes, it was a blowout, but the Patriots have blown out many teams in that time. Like it or not, Edelman has lost a lot of the safety he used to have. Oddly enough, the Jets slot cornerback Brian Poole may be the best cornerback on the field right now, as he did a phenomenal job containing Jarvis Landry last week, holding him to just three catches and 32 yards on seven targets. Going back to Week 1, he held Cole Beasley to just 40 yards on nine targets. The Jets have been a team to pick on in the slot over the last few years (and Edelman certainly has), but it appears you now beat them on the perimeter. He’s still the most familiar with Brady, so you shouldn’t move him to your bench or anything, but it’s time to lower expectations into high-end WR3 territory. *Update* Now that Brown has been released, Edelman walks back into his old role that has netted him near 10 targets per game over the last few years. He’s back in the WR2 territory.
Phillip Dorsett: He’ll take the spot of Antonio Brown in three-wide-receiver sets, making him fantasy relevant once again. Going back to Week 1 when Brown wasn’t on the team, Edelman played 67 snaps, Gordon played 55 snaps, and Dorsett played 53 snaps. Dorsett finished as the No. 8 wide receiver in PPR formats that week on just four targets, highlighting the fact that he doesn’t need much in order to provide value for your fantasy team. The Patriots may not have to throw a lot in this game, but that doesn’t mean Dorsett can’t be usable as an upside WR4 this week. You just have to understand the risk that he may see three targets.
TEs
Ryan Griffin: He has just four targets through two games, including zero targets in their Week 2 matchup with the Browns, which was a great matchup. The Patriots are a team who’s struggled with tight ends at times under Bill Belichick, but you’re not going to contemplate Griffin, even in the deepest of leagues.
Matt LaCosse: In his first game with the team, LaCosse ran 13 routes against the Dolphins, who do struggle with tight ends. He saw two targets and turned them into 33 yards which is a solid start, but not nearly enough to trust him in a spot against the Jets defense who’s been the best defense against tight ends since the start of the 2018 season, as safety Jamal Adams is a monster. Over the span of 18 games, the Jets have allowed just 49 receptions for 572 yards to the tight end position. That’s 2.7 receptions and 31.8 yards per game. Not to one player, but all tight ends combined.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 46.5
Line: CAR by 2.5
QBs
Cam Newton: It’s going to be difficult to trust Newton with anything after watching him in Week 2, as he continually missed his open targets against the Bucs. Even worse, he’s now played two games during the 2019 season, and you have more rushing yards than he does. Knowing there’s been just one instance in his career he’s thrown more than 24 touchdowns, that’s a problem. If there’s a matchup that should fix his issues, it’s this one. The Cardinals are decimated in the secondary and it’s led to them allowing 657 yards and five touchdowns through the air in the first two weeks. The only concern in this matchup comes back to Newton and his health, as he apparently reaggravated his foot injury, and missed practice on Tuesday. Knowing he doesn’t have mobility limits our confidence to play him in lineups, as he must then rely on his accuracy. The worst part is that we just watched Lamar Jackson rush for 120 yards against his opponent. I’ll post updates here as soon as we hear more on Newton’s status. For now, he should be considered a semi-shaky high-end QB2. *Update* Newton has been ruled out, meaning Kyle Allen will start for the Panthers this week. Oddly enough, he may be an upgrade on Newton’s passing, though he likely won’t have the poise or pocket presence that Newton does. Allen started the Week 17 game against the Saints last year, completing 16-of-27 passes for 228 yards and two touchdowns. He wouldn’t be the worst low-end QB2 start in 2QB leagues.
Kyler Murray: Through two games, Murray has thrown for 657 yards. That’s the good news. The bad news? He’s averaging just 7.0 yards per attempt, has a 2.13 percent touchdown-rate, and has rushed for just 17 yards and no touchdowns. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is providing the high play-counts we were promised, but Murray can be far more efficient. The Panthers will have had 10 days to prepare for this game, and they have a pass defense that’s been solid through two weeks. Playing in two matchups against teams with weapons everywhere (Rams, Bucs), the Panthers have allowed just 396 yards and two touchdowns through the air in the two games combined. They held Goff and Sean McVay’s spread offense to just 4.8 yards per attempt in Week 1, which is a big accomplishment. They allowed just one quarterback rush for more than 27 yards last year, which doesn’t bode well for Murray’s rushing totals, either. The area Murray can succeed, however, is over the middle of the field. The Panthers go to Javien Elliott in nickel coverage, and that’s a great thing for Murray’s receivers. You saw Chris Godwin going off last week, right? Murray’s targeted his slot-heavy receivers 44 times while targeting the remaining receivers just 29 times. The play volume combined with the strength/weakness over the middle of the field, Murray should be able to stay in the low-end QB1 conversation this week.
RBs
Christian McCaffrey: It was clear the Bucs straight-up told the Panthers, “we’re going to make you beat us with Newton.” Because of that, McCaffrey was continually stuffed, finishing with just 53 total yards on 18 touches. This could be a problem if Newton doesn’t start rushing again because that’s something McCaffrey benefited from, as teams had to account for Newton’s legs. The Cardinals haven’t played against a McCaffrey-type of player over the first two weeks, as they’ve faced a couple timeshares in both the Lions and Ravens. With the lack of talent and depth the Cardinals have at cornerback, running backs have been targeted just eight times in the first two games, totaling 7/77/0 on them. The Panthers have plenty of talent at wide receiver to exploit the Cardinals’ cornerback issue, but I’d expect Newton to be a bit more check-down than normal given his accuracy issues. The Cardinals have yet to allow a touchdown to a running back, which is surprising given the 50 points they’ve allowed over the first two weeks. McCaffrey should be cemented in lineups as a high-end RB1 every week and this matchup shouldn’t concern you too much, though there are better options for cash lineups this week.
David Johnson: It was a very worrisome time for Johnson owners after he had to leave the game with a wrist injury in the first quarter last week. He wound-up returning and playing 34-of-57 snaps, so everything appears to be okay. His rushing touchdown salvaged a bad day against a stingy Ravens defense, and he sits as the No. 8 running back in PPR formats despite the tough matchups against the Lions and Ravens to open the season. The Panthers have been working through some personnel changes on defense and it’s showed up in the box score, as they’ve now allowed 241 yards and three rushing touchdowns over the first two games, including 82 yards and a touchdown to Peyton Barber last week. The Panthers did allow a healthy 4.64 yards per carry last year, so this run defense may not be one to shy away from, though Johnson’s offensive line could make any front seven look good. The area that stings a bit is the receiving work, as the Panthers have allowed just three receptions for 20 yards to running backs. This is now a trend after they allowed the second fewest fantasy points through the air to running backs last year. Because of that, Johnson’s floor is lowered a tad. He should still be in lineups as a middling RB1 who should find the end zone at least once.
WRs
D.J. Moore: Through two games, Moore is on pace for a ridiculous 192 targets, 128 receptions, and 1,320 yards. He hasn’t scored but with numbers like that, touchdowns will follow. These numbers have come while Newton has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league. Newton can only get better and it should start this week against the Cardinals who’ve been operating with backup cornerbacks through two weeks. Moore will see a lot of Byron Murphy in this game, the Cardinals second-round pick from this year’s draft who’s allowed 7/92/1 on 13 targets in coverage this year. He’s had a few tough assignments in coverage to start the year but has played respectable enough. Still, Moore has seen 24 targets through two games and the Cardinals have done a solid job against the run to this point, making it more likely the Panthers have to rely on a quick-hitting pass attack. Moore’s average depth of target sits at 8.8 yards while Samuel’s is at 14.9 yards, meaning Moore doesn’t rely on Newton’s accuracy as much. He needs to remain in lineups as a low-end WR2 even with Newton struggling. *Update* Kyle Allen is starting, though it shouldn’t affect Moore’s role very much, as he’s the safety valve at wide receiver, while Samuel requires a bit more precision down the field.
Curtis Samuel: Many will look at Samuel’s five catches and 91 yards as a big plus last week, but his game should’ve been much bigger. Newton struggled with accuracy and knowing Samuel is the best deep-threat, he was the one most affected. His average depth of target sits at 14.9 yards down the field, which is one of the higher marks in the league. He moves all over the formation, so he’ll see a mixture of Byron Murphy, Tramaine Brock, and Chris Jones (injured his ankle in practice, now listed as questionable) in coverage. None of them are even in the 4.4-second range. Samuel can get behind this defense, though Newton’s accuracy issues are real and make Samuel a bit riskier than he should be in this matchup. Sitting at 17 targets through two weeks is giving him much more opportunity than anyone could’ve anticipated, so you have to trot him out there as a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 with game-breaking upside if Newton can get it together. *Update* Kyle Allen has been named the starter, which bodes well for Samuel, who was a favorite his when he played last year, and saw the most of Allen’s targets.
Larry Fitzgerald: Through two weeks, Fitzgerald is on pace for 192 targets. No, that’s not going to keep up, but it’s good to know he’s the go-to receiver in this offense. The Panthers clearly had a problem with fellow big-slot receiver Chris Godwin last week, as he racked-up 8/121/1 on them. The reason the Cardinals are going to give teams fits (no pun intended), is because they run multiple slot receivers, which forces perimeter cornerbacks to play out of position, or it forces them to rely on their depth at cornerback. Behind James Bradberry and Donte Jackson, the Panthers don’t have it. Their next man up is Javien Elliott, who has 56 passes come his way over his 3-year career. Just five of those passes have hit the ground. Fitzgerald should be in lineups as a WR3 until Murray gives us a reason not to. In fact, he should be cash-game viable with the target numbers he’s seeing.
Christian Kirk: With both him and Fitzgerald playing in the slot, it’s testing the depth at the cornerback/safety position for their opponents. The Panthers have allowed a perfect 18-of-18 passing when receivers/tight ends line up in the slot, highlighting a weakness in their scheme. Meanwhile, Fitzgerald and Kirk have combined for 20-of-33 receiving when in the slot for 296 yards and a touchdown. While Kirk hasn’t seen the 192-target pace that Fitzgerald has, he’s still on a ridiculous 160-target pace. We should be expecting more of a balance in targets at some point, and it wouldn’t shock me to see Kirk have a game that lessens Fitzgerald’s role, or vice versa. Kirk should be in lineups as a backend WR3 in a good matchup.
TEs
Greg Olsen: Playing on a short week was reportedly a tough thing for Olsen to do at his advanced age, though the box score wouldn’t suggest that. He’s clearly a safety valve for Newton during his struggles, which means he’s on the fantasy radar every week. In this matchup against the Cardinals, he needs to be in fantasy lineups. They’ve been demolished by tight ends in each of the first two weeks, allowing the No. 2 performance to rookie T.J. Hockenson, and then allowing the No. 1 performance to second-year star Mark Andrews. The Lions and Ravens tight ends combined for 17 catches, 273 yards, and three touchdowns on just 23 targets. That’s a massive 11.87 yards and 2.71 PPR points per target. Olsen has seen 18 of the 19 tight end targets for the Panthers, which is a rare feat in today’s NFL. Lock him in as a rock-solid TE1 this week who should be safe in cash-game lineups as well. If Allen starts, he may not have the connection he does with Newton, which would lower his floor a bit, though it’s still a great matchup.
Maxx Williams: Through two games, the Cardinals’ tight end leader in routes run is Williams, with 17 of them. Those routes have netted just two targets, though he’s caught them both for 36 yards. Charles Clay actually ran more routes than him in Week 2, though it’s hard to take much away from that. In the end, you cannot trust either of these tight ends when they’re averaging less than nine routes per game, even if the Panthers have allowed tight ends to be efficient. Carry on.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 48.0
Line: TB by 6.5
QBs
Daniel Jones: It’s official, we’re beginning the Daniel Jones era in New York, as he was announced the starter on Tuesday. You’d think that the Bucs would be a good matchup to walk into, but after two weeks, they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Under new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, they’ve been much better, allowing just a 55 percent completion-rate and one touchdown on 78 pass attempts. While it surely helps that Cam Newton couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn last week, they made the 49ers offense look horrendous, though Jimmy Garoppolo also missed a lot of throws. Can Jones start to hit the passes they’ve been missing? It’d surely help if he has Sterling Shepard available, who had to miss last week with a concussion. The Bucs only pressured Garoppolo 18 percent of the time, while getting to Newton a mediocre 32 percent of the time, so Jones shouldn’t be on his back frequently. He looked rock-solid in the preseason, completing 29-of-34 attempts for 416 yards and two touchdowns, though many teams don’t take the preseason seriously. Jones should be able to post low-end QB2 numbers in this matchup for those in 2QB leagues, though he’s not a recommended streamer in standard formats.
Jameis Winston: The game last Thursday night started out as one to forget for Winston, though he got things together and finished with a solid performance, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt against a tough Panthers defense. He’s not for those who are risk-adverse, but you have to understand the matchup he has in front of him in Week 3. The Giants have faced just 62 pass attempts through two weeks, which ranks as the eighth fewest in the league. Despite that, they’ve allowed the third-most passing yards (658) and fifth-most passing touchdowns (5). The 10.61 yards per attempt ranks as the third highest in football, behind only the Dolphins and Bengals, two matchups fantasy owners are aggressively attacking. Dak Prescott finished as the No. 2 quarterback in their matchup, while Josh Allen was able to finish No. 7. If Winston can’t get it done here, he’s droppable, but I don’t see that happening. Consider him a low-end QB1 who can absolutely breakout this week, though he’s not for the feint of heart.
RBs
Saquon Barkley: The insertion of Daniel Jones into this offense should technically help Barkley. Jones has much more mobility than Eli Manning, which should allow him to extend plays a bit more, and in turn, get sacked less while finding options to pass to – like Barkley – more. Todd Bowles has had a tremendous impact on the Bucs defense, as they rank No. 5 against fantasy quarterbacks and No. 2 against fantasy running backs. I’d expect to see a similar gameplan for this matchup that they used against Christian McCaffrey last week when they held him to just 37 yards on 16 carries (2.31 yards per carry). It was McCaffrey’s worst game in quite some time. Barkley isn’t the type to consistently rack-up four or five yards per carry, anyway. He’s the type who can have 16 carries for 37 yards and then break an 80-yard touchdown run. Knowing it’s Jones’ first game under center, expect Barkley to be a heavy part of the gameplan on both the ground and through the air. It doesn’t hurt that they’ll be without inside linebacker Devin White, either. Despite the Bucs allowing 2.98 yards per carry, Barkley should be in lineups as an RB1. He’s not a cash-game option, but you should get some exposure in tournaments.
Peyton Barber, Ronald Jones, and Dare Ogunbowale: It was a timeshare once again in Week 2, though Barber separated himself from the pack with 89 total yards and a touchdown against the Panthers. Through two games, here are the snap counts: Barber 65, Ogunbowale 40, Jones 29. Here are the touch counts: Barber 36, Jones 18, Ogunbowale 5. For now, Barber is the one who has the most appeal, though it’s important to note this can change on a weekly basis, as Jones looked the best in Week 1. The Giants were horrendous against the run during the second half of 2018, and that’s bled into 2019. Both the Cowboys and Bills tallied 26 carries with their running backs, piling up 203 yards on the ground, but more importantly, allowing a league-leading three rushing touchdowns. Even if the carry timeshare remained the same (currently 31-17 Barber), the carry distribution on 26 carries would be Barber 16 and Jones 10. This is the first game (and maybe one of the only games) the Bucs are big favorites, and they are at home against a first-time rookie starter, so the stars align for a big game out of someone. After the game he had last Thursday night, it’s got to be Barber, though I say that with less certainty than I’d like. Consider him a middling RB3 who can be more. As for Jones, he’s more of a wait-and-see player, and if he doesn’t get more than 30 percent of the carries in this game, you may want to cut bait. Ogunbowale won’t have much of a role if the Bucs are in the lead, and even if they aren’t, the wide receiver matchups are much better. He should be on waiver wires.
WRs
Sterling Shepard: As of the time I’m writing this, Shepard hasn’t been fully cleared in the concussion protocol, though he’s trending in the right direction. Check back here on Saturday for updates. The Bucs have done a great job on defense as far as the talent they have when compared to production, but we’ve still watched three receivers post double-digit PPR games against them, even while their quarterbacks were not every accurate. The cornerbacks are the weak point of the Bucs defense, and it just so happens that their worst one may be covering Shepard 70 percent of the time. M.J. Stewart was a second-round pick of the Bucs last year who’s not been very good in coverage, allowing a massive 77.6 percent completion rate along with six touchdowns on just 49 targets in his coverage. The one passing touchdown the Bucs allowed this year was on him. It seems like Jones should be an upgrade over Manning and you should’ve been playing Shepard as a WR3 even with Manning under center for this game. Provided he’s cleared, start him as a quality high-floor WR3.
Cody Latimer: He’s seen 13 targets over the first two games, and though it should’ve helped that Shepard was out last week, it led to fewer targets. The Bucs cornerbacks on the perimeter are Carlton Davis and Vernon Hargreaves, two players who were left for dead after last year. Hargreaves still might be considering he is now in his fourth season and his QB Rating in coverage is still over 101. He’s coming off a game in which Cam Newton was completely inaccurate, yet Hargreaves allowed 10-of-11 passing for 133 yards in his coverage. He plays on the side of the field Latimer does most of the time. If Daniel Jones can be a competent quarterback, he might provide value for a receiver who’s clearly getting targets while Golden Tate remains suspended. Still, he’s just a hail-mary WR5 for those in deep leagues. *Update* He’s been ruled out for Week 3.
Mike Evans: There are many who are panicking with Evans, and while it’s understandable, you must understand that he had a tougher matchup last week with James Bradberry. He’s going to see almost all of the shadow cornerbacks in coverage due to the role Godwin plays in the slot. The Giants don’t have anyone of Evans’ caliber to shadow in this matchup, as Janoris Jenkins is the closest thing they have. You have to wonder if they plan to shadow Evans with Godwin doing as well as he has. Jenkins has allowed 9-of-12 passing in his coverage for 94 yards, so it’s far from a shutdown situation. On top of that, Evans tagged him and the Giants last year for 6/120/1. If they play sides, Evans will demolish DeAndre Baker, who’s allowed 272 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 targets in this, his rookie season. Call me crazy, but I think this is the week where Evans stops being sold. He should be in lineups as a WR1 against the Giants, who have already somehow allowed six wide receivers to finish with at least 12 PPR points against them. This could be the week where everyone says, “Oh, there’s the Evans who totaled 1,500 yards last year.”
Chris Godwin: Should you be surprised by Godwin’s breakout performance? Not really, as there’s a reason many were high on the versatile receiver who’s playing the slot role in Bruce Arians’ offense. After his eight-catch, 121-yard, one-touchdown performance, he’ll face a weak Giants secondary. If there’s one thing we know, it’s that he won’t be shadowed by Janoris Jenkins. The Giants have last year’s undrafted free agent Grant Haley covering the slot for them, which is going to be an issue for them. On just 36 career targets, he’s allowed 319 yards and four touchdowns. It’s not as if the Giants front seven will help mask his issues, either. Godwin should find himself open rather frequently in this game against a Giants defense that’s allowed 550 yards and three touchdowns to receivers through two weeks. While Evans is likely to go off, there’s plenty of room for Godwin, too. Play him as a high-end WR2 who might continue his 1,392-yard, 16-touchdown pace.
Breshad Perriman: He saw four targets last week in a game Winston threw the ball just 25 times, which amounts to a 16 percent target share. They amounted to absolutely nothing, which obviously hurts his future outlook, as many are clamoring for O.J. Howard to get more targets in the offense. The Giants secondary is among the worst in football, so I wanted to make sure we touched on him here. If the Giants play sides, he’ll see more of Janoris Jenkins, who is their best cornerback, though it seems likely they stick him on Evans. That would leave Perriman with rookie DeAndre Baker in coverage, who has been burned for 20.9 yards per target with two touchdowns in his first two NFL games. Perriman is nothing more than a dart throw in tournaments, but it could pay off.
TEs
Evan Engram: It was a tough matchup for Engram last week, so don’t panic about his six-catch, 48-yard game in Week 2. The matchup gets much better this week against the Bucs, who have allowed 14-of-19 passing to the tight end position this year, though they’ve had ridiculous competition in George Kittle and Greg Olsen. They haven’t allowed a touchdown to them yet, though Kittle had two of them called back due to penalties in Week 1. The combination of Jordan Whitehead and Mike Edwards at safety might be the worst in football, and though Edwards is new back there, the Bucs safeties were one to target last year, as they allowed 1,061 yards to the tight end position, which ranked fourth-most in the league. Will Daniel Jones target Engram as much as Manning did? Knowing the options available to him, yes. Engram should be played confidently as a high-floor TE1.
O.J. Howard: It’s officially time to panic on Howard, who Bruce Arians called out after their Week 2 game saying, “he can play a heck of a lot better.” He’s been on the field for 110 snaps, so it’s not due to lack of playing time, though he’s blocking on nearly 60 percent of them. He’s run 42 routes while Cameron Brate has run 29 routes, so it’s somewhat of a shared receiving role. The Giants were bottom-10 in the NFL at defending tight ends in 2018 and have now allowed two touchdowns on 13 targets to them in 2019. It’s safe to say they struggle with the position. Howard racked up five catches for 78 yards on just six targets against them last year. The crazy part was that his five catches against them were somewhat mediocre when you find out there were five tight ends who totaled at least seven receptions against them. There are so many options for the Bucs to use this week, but after Arians called out Howard, maybe they try to get him going. Understanding the volatility of the position, he should still be in lineups as an upside TE1. He’s one of the best buy-low targets in fantasy football.
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
Total: 44.5
Line: SEA by 4.5
QBs
Teddy Bridgewater: Now that we know Drew Brees is going to miss what looks to be at least six weeks, it’s Bridgewater’s turn to run Sean Payton’s offense. He’s now played in two games with the Saints, going 31-for-53 passing (58.5 percent) with 283 yards (5.34 yards per attempt) and one touchdown. That’s quite the stepdown from Brees. The Seahawks front seven was able to pressure Andy Dalton 38 percent of the time, while getting pressure to the Steelers quarterbacks just 28 percent of the time. It’s fair to say they’re missing Ezekiel Ansah on the edge, as he’s yet to play in a game. If we remove noodle-armed Ben Roethlisberger from the equation (was playing through an elbow injury), the Seahawks defense has allowed Dalton and Mason Rudolph to complete 47-of-70 passes (67.1 percent) for 530 yards (7.57 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns. Going into Seattle is never an easy thing to do but it should help that Bridgewater and the Saints have a full week to create a gameplan around Bridgewater, and not Brees, as the Rams gameplan was clearly built around Brees’ strengths. Unfortunately, we may see even more Taysom Hill than we did with Brees, which would severely cap Bridgewater’s upside. In a game the Saints are projected for just 20 points, it’s tough to say he should be started as anything more than a low-end QB2. It also doesn’t help that Payton said Bridgewater may not be the No. 2 quarterback, which will surely raise some eyebrows. He’s on a short leash.
Russell Wilson: Remember when Wilson “has no one to throw to” was a thing? His ridiculously efficient 78.2 percent completion rate for 9.0 yards per attempt with five touchdowns seems to disagree. The Saints are allowing a very-high 9.50 yards per attempt through two games, and while they did play against Deshaun Watson and Jared Goff, both of those quarterbacks looked relatively bad in non-Saints matchups. Watson averaged just 5.50 yards per attempt against the Jaguars while Goff averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt against the Panthers. Wilson has had a couple good matchups himself, but it appears this matchup may suit their passing game well. The 113.5 QB Rating the Saints have allowed ranks as the seventh highest mark in football. The lack of competence out of the Saints offense could limit the potential of Wilson in this matchup, and the total is one of the lowest this week, so we can’t be too aggressive. Wilson should still be in the low-end QB1 conversation this week.
RBs
Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: This backfield definitely took a big hit when Brees went down and it was evidenced by their 83 combined total yards against the Rams with zero touchdowns. The Seahawks front seven is the biggest strength of their defense, as it’s the backend that’s a problem. They’ve held Joe Mixon to just 10 yards on six carries and then James Conner to 33 yards on 11 carries, though he did score on one of them. Without a late 23-yard run by Benny Snell last week, the Seahawks had allowed just 82 yards on 27 carries. If there’s one area they can be susceptible, it’s in the passing game, as they’ve allowed a decent 6.73 yards per target to running backs, a stat that was also sky-high with them last year (7.25 yards per target). In the same scheme, they allowed 225.6 PPR points through the air alone to running backs, which ranked third-most in the league. Kamara should be able to keep up with RB1-type numbers, though I wouldn’t be confident in Murray as anything more than an middling RB4 knowing where the Seahawks strengths and weaknesses are.
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: Carson had two fumbles last week and it led to him sitting on the bench for a bit. Fortunately, the Seahawks went right back to Carson when the game mattered most, as he converted a fourth-and-one to seal the game. We don’t know if Carson opened pandora’s box and allowed a bigger timeshare moving forward, but it’s something we have to monitor and keep in mind. The Saints got David Onyemata back on the defensive line last week, which certainly helped, though they did lose one of their linebackers in that game as Alex Anzalone had to be placed on injured reserve. They’re getting closer to Sheldon Rankins returning from a torn Achilles, though it’s no guarantee he’ll be a full-time player even when he does return to game action. The Saints allowed the second fewest yards per carry to running backs last year (3.23 yards per carry), though it’s clear the missing personnel up front matters quite a bit, as they’ve allowed the fourth most yards per carry (5.85) through two weeks. They have allowed just one touchdown to the combination of Rams and Texans running backs, which is quite the feat considering the defense allowed 55 points in the two games combined. If Rankins is able to return, it downgrades the matchup slightly, but not enough where Carson should move out of the RB2 conversation, though he comes with far too much risk for cash games. As for Penny, he may get more touches after his 65-yard, one-touchdown performance last week, but I’m not convinced the Saints are a run defense you can simply walk over, making him a middling RB4 who would clearly benefit if Carson was punished for his fumbling issues.
WRs
Michael Thomas: Once Bridgewater entered the game for the Saints, his notable targets went like this: Thomas 11, Cook 5, Kamara 3, Taysom Hill 3, Smith 2, Ginn 0. That’s a massive 36.7 percent target share for Thomas, which will keep any receiver afloat. The Seahawks play as much zone as any other team in the NFL, so there’s not one particular cornerback Thomas will see in Week 3. The Seahawks have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to wide receivers through two short weeks, though much of it has come on volume, as they’ve allowed just 1.57 PPR points per target, which ranks as the 11th lowest number in the league. The good news, however, is that the Saints get to pick who Thomas lines up against, which is likely to be Tre Flowers, the second-year cornerback who’s allowed a 111.8 QB Rating on 92 targets in coverage, including 15.5 yards per reception. Looking like Bridgewater’s safety blanket, Thomas should be played as a middling WR1 who may lose some of his ceiling with Brees but may also gain a steadier target floor.
Ted Ginn: It seems unlikely that Tre’Quan Smith will play in this game, though it won’t affect Ginn’s role much, as Smith was playing the majority of his snaps in the slot. Unfortunately, Ginn wasn’t targeted a single time by Bridgewater last week, eliminating any confidence in playing him this week. Not just that, but he’s typically on the Shaquill Griffin side of the field. While he’s beatable in coverage at times, he’s the best cornerback on their current roster. He’s held receivers to just 7.8 yards per reception through two games, though he did allow a touchdown last week. Still, you cannot trust Ginn with Bridgewater under center.
Tyler Lockett: He has played 68 percent of his snaps in the slot, which is huge for this game. The Saints have P.J. Williams covering the slot, which might just be the best matchup you could ask for. Since the start of 2018, Williams has faced 102 targets in coverage. On those targets, he’s allowed 73 receptions for 923 yards and nine touchdowns. That’s an average of 9.05 yards per target with a touchdown every 11.3 targets. During that same timespan, Lockett has averaged 12.80 yards per target with a touchdown every 7.7 targets. Call me crazy, but this seems like a really good matchup for Lockett, who’s coming off a 12-target, 10-catch game. He needs to be in lineups as a rock-solid WR2 who has big-time upside.
D.K. Metcalf: A crazy stat I found when going through NFL’s NextGenStats was that Metcalf has seen 52.8 percent of the Seahawks air yards. That’s incredible. By comparison, there were just two receivers who topped 38 percent of their team’s air yards in 2018. Those receivers were Julio Jones (45 percent) and Deandre Hopkins (44 percent). Extending that to the top-five, you’d add Tyreek Hill, Kenny Golladay, and Antonio Brown to that list. It’s a very telling stat and one that makes me think Metcalf could be massive this year. He’s going to have his hands full in this matchup, however. The Saints are surely going to stick Marshon Lattimore on him, a physical cornerback who plays tight man coverage. His numbers this year don’t look particularly great considering he’s covered Hopkins and Brandin Cooks over the first two weeks, but he’s someone who allowed just two touchdowns on 164 targets in coverage the previous two years. Because of the matchup, Metcalf isn’t a recommended start, though he’s a player who can hit value on one play. Consider him a boom-or-bust WR4 option for this game, though the future looks bright.
TEs
Jared Cook: He is who we thought he was pre-2018. Through two games with the Saints, Cook has accumulated just four receptions for 40 yards. Jamison Crowder was able to post those stats in one game with a third-string quarterback. Cook was targeted on five of Bridgewater’s 30 attempts, so he seemed to gravitate towards him a bit. The Seahawks have a healthy Bradley McDougald, who shut down tight ends last year. While some will point to Vance McDonald‘s two touchdowns to differ, he finished the game with 38 yards on seven targets. It was the same defensive scheme last year where tight ends averaged just 6.99 yards per target and scored four touchdowns on 92 targets. What changed? Fellow safety Tedric Thompson was out last week, who may be out again with a hamstring injury, forcing McDougald to Thompson’s spot, and pushing Delano Hill into his old role. As you can see, there’s a domino effect that can make Cook’s matchup better, though he’s not a touchdown guy, and you don’t want to rely on him for a lot of yards. He’s just a mediocre TE2 who gets a slight bump if Thompson is out again.
Will Dissly: Before knowing just how healthy Dissly was last week, I said that Nick Vannett had a good matchup with the Steelers. Playing 46 snaps, it’s clear Dissly was healthy while catching all five targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. The Saints unfortunately aren’t a good matchup for tight ends. They were the No. 4 team in the league against them in 2018, allowing just a 58.1 percent completion-rate and 6.66 yards per target. Just two games into the 2019 season, they look just as good, allowing just 6-of-11 passing for 59 scoreless yards. Yes, the competition has been relatively weak, but that wasn’t the case throughout 2018. Dissly is going to have streaming appeal at times this year with the limited options at receiver for the Seahawks, though this isn’t a matchup to attack.
