Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Total: 47.5
Line: GB by 6.0

QBs
Matthew Stafford: We knew it was going to be a tough matchup for Stafford last week, right? Then you added the Kenny Golladay injury and it was a spot to fade him. All things considered, for him to walk away with nearly 300 yards and one touchdown (should have been two) isn’t the worst thing. Remember the hot start to Stafford’s 2019 season? Well, the only team that held him touchdown-less was the Packers. He completed 18-of-32 passes for 265 yards and no touchdowns. It wasn’t like the run game had anything going, either, as they totaled just 38 yards on 16 carries. If Golladay is out again, that’s worrisome for Stafford’s projection. To be fair, the Packers held Kirk Cousins in check last year, but allowed him to complete 19-of-25 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns last week, though a lot of that did come in garbage time. The biggest issue for the Vikings last week was the time of possession battle that may be a similar issue for the Lions, because if you can’t slow down the Packers offense, they’ll take their time. The Lions defense couldn’t contain Mitch Trubisky last week. The hope is that it turns into a shootout and Stafford racks up 40-plus attempts. I don’t know how high his floor would be without Golladay, so he can’t be considered anything more than a middling QB2 if that were the case. Even with Golladay, he would be in the high-end QB2 conversation rather than a must start. You may want to take some shots on him in tournaments if Golladay plays, though.

Aaron Rodgers: There were a lot of positives that came from Rodgers’ Week 1 performance where he wrecked the Vikings defense for 364 yards and four touchdowns, though it didn’t come without some negatives. They lost starting guard Lane Taylor for the year and had their other starting guard Lucas Patrick leave with a shoulder injury (expected to play this week). Keep in mind they were already without right tackle Billy Turner last week. Their offensive line could be an issue, though the Lions struggled to get pressure on Mitch Trubisky last week, and his offensive line is bottom-10. Rodgers completed just 2-of-7 passes while under pressure last week for 32 yards, so that’s where the Lions have a chance. Unfortunately, they were a bottom-six team at pressuring the quarterback in 2019 and the moves they’ve made this season didn’t move the needle. On top of that, the Lions traded away Darius Slay this offseason, have No. 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant dealing with hamstring injuries, and just placed Justin Coleman on injured reserve. Their starting cornerbacks are likely Amani Oruwariye, Darryl Roberts, and Tony McRae if Okudah and Trufant can’t go. Rodgers’ offensive line could be a problem, but it’s not likely that much of a problem against this defense. Start him as a QB1, though we can’t forget who he was in Matt LaFleur’s offense last year. Because of that, I can’t suggest him in cash lineups, though he’s certainly in play for tournaments.

RBs
Adrian Peterson, D’Andre Swift, and Kerryon Johnson: The snap count between these three last week was Swift 34, Peterson 24, Johnson 20. That’s about as gross as a timeshare gets. Peterson led the way with 17 touches, while Johnson had seven, and Swift had six. I’m following the snaps and saying that Swift’s role will only get bigger, though his drop in the end zone for what would’ve been a game-winner didn’t help. The Packers were a defense to attack with running backs last year, allowing a massive 4.86 yards per carry (4th-highest mark in NFL). There were just three teams who allowed more fantasy points on the ground to running backs than them (Panthers, Jaguars, Dolphins). That seems to bode well for Peterson’s role, but the concern is that they’re on the road against the Packers and their defense won’t be able to stop anything. That could lead to a bigger role for Swift, who ran 25 pass routes while Peterson ran just nine of them. The Packers allowed 22 different running backs post top-36 numbers against them last year, so we’re likely to get at least one usable performance here. Knowing Swift got the lone carry inside the five-yard line for the Lions, he’s the one I’d want to play as a mediocre RB3/flex with some upside if they fall behind. Peterson should net 12-plus touches and can he started as a high-end RB4 for teams with troubles at the running back position. Johnson appears to be an afterthought outside of spelling Peterson on early-down work, as he ran just nine pass routes.

Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: Here’s a fun fact for you: Jones led the NFL in red zone targets (4) in Week 1. Crazy, right? The final opportunity count from the running backs was Jones 22, Williams 11, Tyler Ervin 4, A.J. Dillon 2. I don’t see Jones getting to 20-plus opportunities every week, but if we can get 18, that’s more than enough. The interior of the Packers offensive line is aching right now, which might hurt their efficiency, though the Lions aren’t a stout unit up front, especially after they moved on from Damon Harrison this offseason. They have enough issues in the secondary to prevent them from loading the box, too. Last week, we saw David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen tag them for 105 yards on 20 carries. The duo of Jones and Williams hit them up for 151 yards on 25 carries last year in the first game, and then another 119 yards on 28 carries in the second game, and that was when they had Harrison with a competent cornerback unit. The Packers should put points on the board while at home, but who scores them is a mystery, as Jones got two goal-line carries, while Williams also got one. Jones is the one who’s a must-play every week, while Williams might have some viability if the opportunity remains the same, though I wouldn’t trust him just yet. Jones should be considered a low-end RB1 for this game, and someone who can be considered in tournaments.

WRs
Kenny Golladay: He wasn’t close to playing last week after suffering his hamstring injury during Wednesday’s practice, so we don’t know if he’ll play this week. Stay tuned for updates (I come back and update by Saturday morning at the bottom of each player’s notes) on his status. The matchup against the Packers isn’t a bad one, as the combination of Jaire Alexander and Kevin King has been… up-and-down throughout the years. Alexander moved back-and-forth last week, so it’s possible they have him shadow Golladay. That would be an issue, as Alexander has been the better cornerback and one who allowed just a 57.7 percent catch-rate in his coverage last year. He’s not untouchable, as he allowed five touchdowns in his coverage last year on 104 targets, and then allowed one to Adam Thielen last week. Still, he’s the best one on their roster, and against a potentially not-100-percent Golladay, it would be a risky WR2/3 start. It should be noted that Golladay totaled 9/121/0 with Stafford in their first meeting last year, but then just 4/72/0 with David Blough in the second game. Stay tuned for updates. If he’s out, Quintez Cephus would fill his spot in the starting lineup. *Update* He didn’t practice all week, so don’t expect Golladay to play in this game. He’s officially been ruled OUT. 

Marvin Jones: We figured that with Golladay out of the lineup last week that Jones would’ve led the team in targets (8), but he shared the workload with both Quintez Cephus (10) and Danny Amendola (7). He walked away with four catches for 55 yards in a game where he had plenty of chances against rookie Jaylon Johnson. If you want to play Jones here, you should be rooting for Golladay to play as it’ll likely keep the Packers best cornerback Jaire Alexander away from him. No matter which cornerback he faces, Jones should be able to do some work down the field, as Alexander has allowed 14.4 yards per receptions since the start of last year, while Kevin King has allowed a robust 17.1 yards per reception in his coverage. It’s disheartening to see Jones total just two catches for 17 yards in their meeting last year with Stafford under center, though. Still, the Packers allowed 23 wide receivers to finish as top-30 options last year, and the Lions figure to be doing quite a bit of passing in this game. If you have a receiver who’s seeing eight targets, it’s difficult to sit him, especially a touchdown-threat like Jones. While his target floor/ceiling would go down if Golladay were in the lineup, I think his efficiency may go up. I’d consider him as a low-end WR3 this week. *Update* Golladay is highly unlikely to play. 

Danny Amendola: I mentioned this last week, but it needs to be repeated. Amendola has now played 16 games with the Lions and has seen at least five targets in 11 of them, including eight-plus targets in seven of them. He piled up five catches for 81 yards against the Bears last week, which is the same as Noah Fant, though I promise you didn’t hear about Amendola’s performance. The Packers moved on from Tramon Williams this offseason and are now rolling with 2018 undrafted free agent Chandon Sullivan in the slot. He’s only faced 14 targets in the slot over the course of his career that have led to 7/106/0. There isn’t anything of substance we can take away from that, as it’s a very limited sample size. Amendola isn’t ever a sexy option, but he is a WR5-type option when you’re looking for a floor, especially if Golladay misses another week.

Davante Adams: There were some who laughed when I said Adams belonged in the tier with Michael Thomas, but after his 14/156/2 performance in Week 1, we’re hearing a different tune. He’s now played 28 games over the last two-plus years and has totaled 16-plus PPR points in 24 of them. He’s averaged 11.2 targets per game during that time as well. Yeah, he’s elite. Now on to play a Lions secondary that might be missing their three starting cornerbacks. No. 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah was out with a hamstring injury last week, while Desmond Trufant suffered one of his own during the game, and then they placed Justin Coleman on injured reserve. That would leave last year’s fifth-round pick Amani Oruwariye covering Adams, who has allowed 21 catches for 263 yards and three touchdowns on 26 career targets in coverage. Even with Darius Slay on this team last year, they allowed seven different 100-yard receivers. Start Adams as you normally would. Yes, he’s safe enough to play in cash games as well.

Allen Lazard: While Davante Adams played 70 snaps, Lazard was right behind him playing 68 snaps. He’s the clear-cut No. 2 receiver in this offense, even if Valdez-Scantling saw two more targets in the first game. Lazard caught all four of his targets for 63 yards and a touchdown, amounting to the No. 13 wide receiver on the week in half-PPR formats. The Lions are really hurting at cornerback and might be starting Amani Oruwariye, Darryl Roberts, and Tony McRae this week. Lazard would see a mix of all three of them, as he played 57.9 percent of his snaps in the slot. That’s good to know because we just saw Anthony Miller tag this Lions defense for 76 yards and a touchdown on just six targets last week. Over Lazard’s last three regular season games, he’s produced 4/63/1, 4/69/1, and 5/45/0. We may not be there just yet, but he has the looks of a solid WR4 moving forward and one who possesses upside should Aaron Rodgers be on a “don’t forget about me” campaign.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Over the final 12 games of 2019, there was just one where Valdes-Scantling saw more than four targets. He saw six of them in Week 1 and turned them into 17.6 half-PPR points, which netted the No. 11 wide receiver performance. Maybe Aaron Rodgers calling him an MVP during training camp wasn’t hyperbole. Still, Valdes-Scantling played 42 snaps compared to 68 for Lazard and 70 for Adams, so he’s not quite a full-time player right now. That has to give us a little concern, though it doesn’t mean he can’t produce in matchups the Packers throw the ball enough. It certainly helps that the Lions faced 370 targets to wide receivers last year, which amounts to 23.1 per game, enough to be the second-most in football. The Bears receivers saw 22 targets last week and turned them into 14/201/2. If you’re looking for a waiver wire add to potentially start, you could do worse than Valdes-Scantling against this weak secondary. Still, he’s in WR5 territory.

TEs
T.J. Hockenson: We knew the opportunity could be there for Hockenson this year, and without Golladay, we got what we wanted. Hockenson caught all five of his targets for 56 yards and a touchdown in a tough matchup against the Bears. To give you an idea of how impressive that was, the only tight ends who topped 50 yards against the Bears last year were Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce. Now onto the Packers, a team that allowed half the tight ends they played last year to finish as top-12 options with 10-plus PPR points. They only allowed three catches for 39 yards to the Vikings tight ends, but that’s because they only saw three targets. The 13.0 yards per target they allowed was actually the second-most in the league. Going back to last year, they allowed the eighth-most yards per target to tight ends. We’re chasing targets with tight ends, and Hockenson should be in line for five-plus targets here. Start him as a low-end TE1 until he gives us a reason not to. If Golladay is held out again, I’d bump him up into cash-game consideration this week.

Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, and Jace Sternberger: No, just no. The snap count last week was Tonyan 48, Lewis 32, Josiah Deguara 24, and Sternberger 12. I’ll continue to monitor the snaps for you guys, but until someone separates (and actually gets targeted), you can look elsewhere for a streamer. Tonyan ran 24 routes, 10 more than anyone else, so he’s the front-runner right now.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Total: 42.0
Line: BUF by 5.5

QBs
Josh Allen: Did you know that Allen’s 316 yards in Week 1 was the first time in his career he threw for more than 266 yards? It’s odd because he only averaged 6.8 yards per attempt and left even more production on the field. Fantasy owners won’t complain, though. I mentioned last week that Allen averages nearly 7.0 more fantasy points in wins than he does losses, so it’s good to see the Bills favored by 5.5 points this week. The downside is that the Dolphins secondary is not a laughing matter anymore. They have a rock-solid cornerback duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, which should limit the want/need to pass like Allen did last week when he tallied a career-high 46 pass attempts (previous was 41 attempts). Fortunately, the Bills just saw a blueprint on how to attack this defense, as Cam Newton (closest comp to Allen) only threw the ball 19 times, but ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards and two touchdowns. In two games against Miami last year, Allen posted 21.3 fantasy points and 33.8 fantasy points. While they’ve gotten better, Allen clearly gives them headaches. Fire him up as a QB1 once again.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Even though Fitzpatrick got off to a horrendous start (191 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions), he was announced as the starter on Monday. It’s likely due to the fact that you don’t want to start a rookie in his first NFL start against this Bills defense that’s been lights out for a few years now. Over the last three years and one game, they’ve allowed just 47 passing touchdowns in 49 games. Fitzpatrick played against them twice last year, throwing one touchdown in the two games combined, though he did have a rushing touchdown as well, propping his numbers up when they met in Week 7. It seems unlikely that DeVante Parker plays this week after hurting his hamstring in Week 1, which is another ding against Fitzpatrick. There are much better options on the waiver wire.

RBs
Devin Singletary and Zack Moss: It wasn’t the greatest debut for this duo when they combined for just 41 yards on 18 carries against the Jets last week, though they did combine for 11 targets, 8 receptions, 39 yards, and a touchdown through the air. The snap share was 51 Singletary, 39 Moss, so the veteran does appear to have the bigger role, though Moss had the three goal-line carries. By comparison, Singletary had just two goal-line carries during the entire 2019 season. These two might flip-flop value if this persists. The Dolphins are coming off a game in which they allowed the Patriots running backs to combine for 119 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries, and that’s not even including the 75 yards and two touchdowns that Cam Newton rushed for. The Dolphins faced 506 running back touches last year, which was the second-most in football, and it amounts to 31.6 touches per game. Knowing the Dolphins offense will struggle, there should be plenty of touches to go around this week. The Bills gave their running backs 21 and 28 touches in the two meetings last year between these two, though Moss is certainly an upgrade over Gore at this stage. The fact that running backs had 89 red zone touches against the Dolphins last year should excite you about Moss’ potential this week, so start him as an RB3 with upside. As for Singletary, he should still net 12-plus touches and deliver low-end RB3 numbers in a plus matchup.

Jordan Howard, Myles Gaskin, and Matt Breida: Welcome to what we call running back hell. We were confused about which player to value when it was just two running backs we were deciding between. Now you add Gaskin to the mix? He played 39 snaps, while Breida played 14 snaps, and Howard dragged the caboose with just nine snaps in a game that was close throughout. This is so bad; you should avoid if at all possible. The Bills aren’t a team to avoid with running backs, as they have allowed plenty of touchdowns under Sean McDermott, but running backs averaged just 25.6 touches per game against them last year (8th-fewest), and we saw the Jets running backs tally just 18 touches against them last week. In a three-way timeshare, that’s simply not enough. We’re projecting them to fall behind early in this game, yes? If so, Gaskin probably has the most valuable role considering he was in on 25 pass plays, while Breida and Howard combined for eight plays. Gaskin also saw four targets last week, catching all of them for 26 yards. The Bills were near the league average against pass-catching backs last year, so playing him as a low-ceiling RB4 might work out, especially in PPR formats. Howard got all three of the goal-line carries for them, converting one for a touchdown, so it appears he’ll just be a LeGarrette Blount type back, and in a game that may not be close, that’s not great. He’s a touchdown-dependent RB4/5 option. Breida should’ve offered the most value in this backfield for a game like this, but he’ll be droppable after one more game with sub-15 snaps. *Update* The Bills have announced that two of their starting linebackers (Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano) have been ruled out for this game. 

WRs
Stefon Diggs: I’ll be honest, I was worried about Diggs’ volume in this offense. However, I did not know Josh Allen would be dropping back to pass 46 times. That was enough for John Brown to get 10 targets, Diggs to get nine, and Cole Beasley to get seven. That’s not likely to happen again in Week 2, as the Dolphins are the opposite of the Jets. The gameplan to throw against the Jets made tons of sense as they defend the run very well, while the Dolphins have one of the better cornerback duos in the league after acquiring Byron Jones this offseason. Diggs played most of his snaps at RWR, which means he’ll see Xavien Howard most of the time, as that’s his station on the field. It’s worth noting that Howard was on the injury report leading up to Week 1 and they limited him to 27 snaps in the opener. If he’s not 100 percent, Diggs can beat him. The biggest concern here is lack of pass attempts. There were 16 wide receivers who scored more than 12.6 PPR points against the Dolphins last year, but all of them had at least five targets, with 14 of them totaling seven or more. The Bills are clearly open to passing more now that Diggs is on the team, though in this matchup, it makes more sense to go back to their run-heavy ways. Consider Diggs a middling WR3 for this game who might be a victim to a low-volume game.

John Brown: Having a connection with Josh Allen surely helped in Week 1 as he led the team in targets with 10 of them. There were just five games in 2019 where he saw more than eight targets, so I don’t believe it’s something to get used to. Brown’s typically at LWR, which means he’ll see newly-acquired Byron Jones in coverage this week, a cornerback who has seemingly gotten better every year he’s played. Over the last two years (and one game), he’s allowed just 7.16 yards per target and six touchdowns on 137 targets in his coverage. One of the reasons they acquired him was likely due to what Brown did to this team last year, demolishing them for 5/83/1 in the first matchup and then again for 9/137/2 in the second one. So, make no mistake about it, this is a different matchup than it was last year. Not only that, but Brown now has to compete with Diggs in what should still be a run-first offense. Brown is not a must-start by any means and should be considered a middling WR4 this week.

Cole Beasley: The Bills receivers combined for 31 targets in Week 1, something that’s probably never going to happen again in 2020. It allowed Beasley to see the target numbers he did last year when he quietly topped 100 targets on the season. His seven targets in Week 1 amounted to 4/58/0, so nothing that would win you a fantasy matchup. Beasley is the ideal bye week high-floor option, though even that will be in jeopardy with Diggs on the roster. His matchup might be the best on the field in Week 2, though. He’ll match up with Jamal Perry in the slot, a former undrafted rookie who’s played in a decent size role for the Dolphins since Brian Flores took over. He’s allowed a robust 101.3 QB Rating in his coverage, which is extremely high for a slot cornerback. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Beasley totaled just 54 yards in the two games combined against them last year. Wait for bye weeks before you start considering the slot receiver.

DeVante Parker: I’m not expecting Parker to be active this week after he re-injured his hamstring in Week 1 and had to leave the game. If anything changes, I’ll come back and update. Expect Isaiah Ford to start in his place. *Update* Parker has gotten in limited practices, though he’s still iffy. Even if he were to play, he’d match up against Tre’Davious White, one of the best cornerbacks in football. I’d play it safe here. He’s officially a game-time decision. 

Preston Williams: It seems like a foregone conclusion that DeVante Parker will miss Week 2, which is actually a negative to Williams, as it means he’s likely to see Tre’Davious White in coverage quite a bit. White is one of the best cornerbacks in the league and has allowed a minuscule 7.09 yards per target since entering the league. On 223 career targets in coverage, he’s allowed just five touchdowns, and that’s while covering the oppositions No. 1 receiver. Meanwhile, he’s intercepted 12 passes. It’s not wise throwing in his direction. There were just six wide receivers who posted top-24 numbers against the Bills last year, so it’s not like you’re passing on a lot of upside, either. Williams is a WR4/5 I’m looking to avoid if possible.

TEs
Dawson Knox: Despite Josh Allen dropping back and throwing 46 pass attempts last week, Knox saw just three of them. We didn’t expect high volume for him with Diggs on the roster, but to know that Isaiah Mackensie had as many targets as he did is worrisome. Going back to last season, against the same defensive scheme, Knox caught just two passes in each game against the Dolphins. As a defense, they allowed 7.97 yards per target to tight ends last year, but when the tight end is capped at/around 3-5 targets, that makes him touchdown-dependent. Knox will look slightly more appealing in games we expect the Bills to throw a lot, but as we saw last week, not that attractive.

Mike Gesicki: Despite him being listed as the No. 2 tight end on the depth chart, Gesicki led the tight ends in snaps by a wide margin. He was on the field for 45-of-62 plays, including 31 pass plays while no other tight end was in on more than two. He saw five targets against the Patriots, which netted three catches for 30 yards. While the target number is fine, he’s going to need more than that to produce against this defense. Look no further than last year when he posted 4/41/0 and 4/18/0 against them on a total of 10 targets. There were just two tight ends who finished better than the TE10 against them last season, and just one who topped 48 yards. So, it’s kind of touchdown-or-bust for tight ends against them, unless a big play is made. That’s an issue for Gesicki who has averaged just 6.37 yards per target over his career. If DeVante Parker sits, like we’re expecting him to, we could see six-plus targets for Gesicki, but in this matchup, he’s a high-end TE2, at best.

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts

Total: 48.0
Line: IND by 3.0

QBs
Kirk Cousins: The Vikings offense really had no shot to compete against the Packers, as they ran a miniscule 49 offensive plays in that game. If their defense can’t hold their own, that’s going to happen a lot more. Oddly enough, the Colts held the Jaguars to 47 offensive plays last week, the lowest in the league. Similar to Cousins against the Packers, Gardner Minshew was highly efficient in the throws he did make against the Colts, completing 19-of-20 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns. Knowing that Cousins completed 69.1 percent of his passes in 2019, this should pique your interest in streaming him. The Colts secondary doesn’t have the cornerback talent most thought they did, as they were relying on a big jump from second-year cornerback Rock Ya-Sin, as well as a bounce-back year from Xavier Rhodes. The duo combined to allow 6-of-6 passing for 73 yards and a touchdown in their coverage last week. The Colts have allowed just one 100-yard rusher in their 33 games under Matt Eberflus, so if they at least hold the Vikings run game in check, Cousins could reap the benefits. You could definitely do worse than play Cousins as a streamer this week. Since the start of 2019, the Colts defense has allowed 12-of-17 quarterbacks to hit 15.5 or more fantasy points. During that time, there have been six quarterbacks who’ve thrown at least three touchdowns. Cousins is a high-end QB2 with top-10 potential this week.

Philip Rivers: His first game in a Colts uniform was a mixed bag, as he completed 78.3 percent of his passes for 363 yards and was pressured just 12.8 percent of the time (second-lowest rate in Week 1), but turned those yards into just one touchdown and two interceptions. Now going to play at home against the Vikings, it could be a treat for him and the Colts pass catchers. This defense is without their top pass-rusher, Danielle Hunter, and that led to them pressuring Aaron Rodgers just 15 percent of dropbacks last week, hence the reason he tagged them for 364 yards and four touchdowns. Rivers has a better line in front of him than Rodgers, so he should have plenty of time to decide where he wants to go with the ball. It’s not just Hunter that’s been different about this defense, either. They lost five starters on that side of the ball, including defensive tackle Linval Joseph, edge rusher Everson Griffin, and all three of their starters at cornerback, as Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Mackensie Alexander are gone. The first week with the new group obviously didn’t go so well. The downside to Rivers is that he offers no mobility, which wrecks your fantasy floor as a streamer. The Vikings have quietly allowed 1,724 yards on 389 carries (4.43 yards per carry) since the start of 2019, so it’s possible that Rivers takes a backseat to the run game, though I see what should be a good mix. Rivers is in the mid-to-high-end QB2 conversation.

RBs
Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison: The Vikings couldn’t stick to their usual run-heavy gameplan, as their defense kind of screwed up those plans. Still, in a game the Vikings had just 49 offensive snaps, Cook and Mattison combined for 128 yards and two touchdowns on 23 touches. The offense certainly moves through them, though the Colts might have something to say about that. In 37 games under Frank Reich and Matt Eberflus, they’ve allowed exactly one running back to eclipse 100 yards on the ground against them, and that was Derrick Henry during his incredible streak down the stretch in 2019. On the ground, they allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs last year. However, we know Cook is more than just a one-two down back. The Colts allowed 109 receptions to running backs last year, which amounts to 6.8 per game. That’s a large part of the reason they allowed the seventh-most points through the air to running backs. I don’t know if Cook absolutely smashes, as the Colts have allowed just 18 running back touchdowns in the 37 games under Reich, but I can see him being used a lot in the passing game given the lack of proven pass catchers outside of Thielen. He’s an RB1 you shouldn’t hesitate to play. Mattison isn’t someone I’d want to play while Cook is at full health, especially in a matchup against a team that didn’t allow much on the ground to running backs.

Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines: After getting word that Marlon Mack is out for the season, these two running backs are going to be major factors in fantasy moving forward. Some will say that Hines only has a big role due to Mack’s injury, but that’s not true, as he was splitting reps with Mack while Taylor was the clear No. 3 running back. Taylor didn’t have a touch in the first quarter and didn’t get on the field until Mack was hurt. It may have been to ease the rookie in, but Hines certainly had a big role. With the way Rivers operates, this could very easily be a Melvin Gordon/Austin Ekeler-type backfield. The Vikings have allowed a stable 4.43 yards per carry over their last 17 games, so they’re not the elite run-stopping defense that everyone remembers. There were five different running backs who crossed the 100-rushing-yard threshold against them last year. The refreshing part of Taylor’s performance that was just two-and-a-half quarters was that he saw six targets and caught all of them for 67 yards. That’s not going to be an every-week thing, but it’s good to know he’ll be used in that fashion, even in a game that has a neutral gamescript. With the issues the Vikings have in their secondary right now, they can’t afford to focus too much energy on stopping the run. Start Taylor as a high-end RB2 who should net 15-plus touches. As for Hines, you should view him as a Tarik Cohen/James White-type running back that has Austin Ekeler possibilities. Because of that, he should be started as a high-end RB3 with a solid floor.

WRs
Adam Thielen: Despite the Vikings passing the ball just 25 times in Week 1, we saw Thielen get eight of them, which amounted to the No. 3 wide receiver performance. Now, Thielen gets to go against the Colts secondary that just allowed the Jaguars receivers combine for 11 receptions, 109 yards, and three touchdowns on just 12 targets. Thielen ran the majority of his routes from the perimeter, which means he’ll see a combination of Xavier Rhodes and Rock Ya-Sin in coverage. Rhodes is a former teammate and while he may be itching to get back at his former team, he’s just not very good anymore. Since the start of last season, he’s seen 82 targets. Think about that number, okay. He’s allowed 69 receptions on those targets for 855 yards and six touchdowns. That amounts to a passer rating near 135.0, which is easily the worst mark in football. Thielen is a can’t-miss WR1 in this matchup and one you should be playing in cash lineups.

Justin Jefferson and Olabisi Johnson: These two shared a lot of snaps last week, though it was Jefferson who won the battle for passing plays he was on the field for. He ran 26 routes while Johnson ran 20, so it’s not a major gap, but we know Johnson lacks startability in fantasy, right? Jefferson was behind the curve after starting the year on the COVID list, so we should see him continually ramped up in his usage. Until that time, avoid these two receivers. Jefferson is the one I would stash in deeper leagues, as he might become viable if the Vikings defense keeps allowing them to fall behind.

T.Y. Hilton: It would appear Hilton has some competition for targets in the offense for the first time in a while, as Parris Campbell equaled Hilton’s target total in Week 1 and outproduced him. We know Hilton’s not a big touchdown producer (never had more than seven), and you’d have to go back to 2018 to find the last time he topped 87 yards in a game. It’s still good to see him get nine targets in Rivers’ first game as the quarterback. The Vikings cornerbacks struggled mightily to keep the Packers receivers in check last week, as the trio of Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling combined for 22 catches, 315 yards, and four touchdowns on just 27 targets. Hilton played on each side of the formation (almost a 50/50 split) last week, so he’ll see a mixture of Mike Hughes, Holton Hill, and rookie Cameron Dantzler in coverage (Dantzler has been ruled out). If Hilton is going to be fantasy relevant this year, he needs to get it done in matchups like this. Start him as a high-end WR3 and expect results.

Parris Campbell: If you read my rankings before the season, or even my Weekend Waiver Wire Stashes piece that comes out on Saturday mornings, you would’ve had Campbell rostered without spending any FAB budget or priority. He saw nine targets in his first game with Philip Rivers, snatching six of them for 71 yards, and he may have had the toughest WR/CB matchup. The Vikings are apparently still trying to figure out how to align their cornerbacks because none of them played a slot-specific role in Week 1, which is likely what led to the Packers having three top-15 wide receivers on the week. It’s worth noting that Packers receivers caught 5-of-5 balls for 70 yards and a touchdown while playing in the slot last week, which bodes well for Campbell seeing as he ran 95 percent of his routes from the slot. There’s some risk, sure, but Campbell is moving up the ladder and should be in the WR4 conversation. If he sees six-plus targets again, I could be too low on him.

Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal: Just as we expected, the snaps were split between these two last week. Pascal led the way with 46 snaps while Pittman played 39 snaps. They’re both clearly behind Hilton and Campbell. Knowing that the two combined for just five targets in a game Rivers threw the ball 46 times, it’s not time to trust them in fantasy. Pittman is the one who will eventually take over that role, but it may take some time. They’re nothing more than touchdown-dependent hail mary options. *Update* Pittman was downgraded to a limited participant on Thursday, and then did not practice on Friday with a toe injury. He could be inactive.

TEs
Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr.: So much for Smith taking on a bigger role in year two. Well, not right away. He and Rudolph split the snaps in Week 1 (Rudolph 32, Smith 31), though it didn’t matter much as they combined for just three targets. The Vikings only threw the ball 25 times, so it’s not like they could’ve amassed a lot of targets, but when it’s a 50/50 timeshare at tight end, you need Eagles-type targets to them. In the Vikings offense, that’s not going to happen. Here are the last five games these two have played together with their target totals.

The Colts defense allowed a very-low 7.05 yards per target to tight ends last year, and there were just four starting tight ends who finished as a top-12 option against them. The only one of them who didn’t have at least seven targets was Cameron Brate, who caught all four of his targets for 30 yards and a touchdown. This is a timeshare you should stay away from unless you like relying on the occasional touchdown.

Jack Doyle: It wasn’t a great performance in Week 1 out of him, but 49 yards wasn’t crippling, either. Did you know there were just four tight ends who topped 58 yards in Week 1? None of them were drafted as a top-five tight end. The Vikings are not a matchup to target with tight ends, however, as they allowed a miniscule 1.32 PPR points per target in 2019, the lowest number in the NFL. It wasn’t due to the lack of competition, either, as they played against Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Austin Hooper, Evan Engram, Noah Fant, and Hunter Henry. There were just three tight ends who topped 10.4 PPR points and they all saw at least nine targets in the matchup. The Vikings are not the same team as they were last year, though it is the same scheme. Doyle should come with a semi-stable TE2 floor, but if you’re looking for a ceiling, he’s probably not the guy. *Update* Doyle has not practiced all week and looks unlikely to play. Mo Alie-Cox is someone who’ll be starting in his place for those searching for a last-minute replacement. Doyle has officially been ruled OUT.

Washington Football Team at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 46.5
Line: ARI by 6.5

QBs
Dwayne Haskins: New offense, but more of the same approach with Haskins. Ease him into the game and don’t ask him to do too much. Washington ran 70 offensive plays last week, and Haskins finished with 31 pass attempts. Part of that was because the Eagles kept giving them the ball in their own territory, which led to a lot of Peyton Barber one- and two-yard runs. One thing that this game should produce is plays, as Ron Rivera’s Panthers team last year averaged 132.4 plays per game (2nd-most in NFL), while the Cardinals averaged 130.0 plays (8th-most). Both of their games featured at least 137 plays in Week 1. The Cardinals added some pieces to their defense this offseason, though Jimmy Garoppolo was still able to throw for 259 yards and two touchdowns despite missing essentially all of his pass catchers. Haskins has still yet to throw for more than 261 yards or two touchdowns, so it’s not like you’re considering him here, especially considering his No. 1 receiver will likely be shadowed by Patrick Peterson.

Kyler Murray: Last week was supposed to be a tough one for Murray as he tried to escape the pressure of the 49ers pass rush. Fortunately for him, the 49ers only pressured him 23.5 percent of the time, which was the 22nd-lowest number from last week. That’s great news for their offensive line. Now onto Washington who continually put Carson Wentz under duress with their talented front four. They sacked him eight times last week, though he held onto the ball for far too long. The Cardinals need to be a quick-hitting offense against this defense, as their cornerbacks are not particularly good. Murray should be looking early and often at DeAndre Hopkins who’ll see a lot of Ronald Darby. As mentioned in the Haskins notes above, these two teams run a lot of plays. Ron Rivera’s Panthers team last year averaged 132.4 plays per game (2nd-most in NFL), while the Cardinals averaged 130.0 plays (8th-most). Both of their games featured at least 137 plays in Week 1. That’s great news for Murray, as the Cardinals have called a passing play on 60.4 percent of plays under Kliff Kingsbury. The pressure could also force Murray to abandon the pocket and become mobile, the way he did last week when he rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown. I think the Cardinals learned what not to do from the Eagles and use that to their advantage this week. Start Murray as a rock-solid QB1. He can also be considered in cash games.

RBs
Peyton Barber and Antonio Gibson: We knew this backfield would be hard to predict, right? Well, it’s clear what roles these two running backs have. Barber totaled 17 carries, though they amounted to just 29 yards. He did, however, score two touchdowns. Fun fact: He had 10 red zone carries, which was the most in the league. There were just four teams of running backs who finished with more than that. Gibson was more efficient while totaling 36 yards on his nine carries, but he totaled just two targets, which won’t get it done. Still, it’s only a matter of time before they realize he should be the primary back. The Cardinals aren’t a team to be worried about as a matchup, though they’re also not one that’s a must-attack, either. They allowed just 10 running backs to post top-24 numbers against them last year, which says a lot considering how many points per game they were allowing. It should be noted that they allowed 7.13 yards per target to running backs last year, which was the eighth-most in the league. But when Jd Mckissic is still getting five targets per game, it’s clear we can’t rely on a massive role in the passing game for Gibson. The Cardinals were very good at holding running backs in check on the goal-line, as they allowed a touchdown every 42.0 carries, which ranked as the eighth-highest mark in football. I wouldn’t recommend Barber as anything more than a touchdown-dependent RB4, while Gibson is the upside RB4 who should continue to see his role grow.

Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds: It was a tough matchup right out of the gate for Drake, but he came through with a touchdown, salvaging the week. The downside to his performance was that Edmonds saw five targets to his two targets. Looking closer, though, you shouldn’t be too concerned, as Drake was in on 27 pass plays, while Edmonds was on the field for 15 of them. Drake played 30 more snaps overall, so he’s clearly the lead back here. Washington isn’t a cake matchup by any means, as their front seven is the strength of their team. Now under Ron Rivera, we must try to eliminate the 4.71 yards per carry they allowed last year and look at what they’re doing now. The combination of Boston Scott and Corey Clement totaled just 54 yards on 15 carries against them last week. The one thing that helps you feel better about Drake is that they’re a big home favorite in a game they should total 65-plus plays on offense. That’s a recipe for success with running backs, and we can’t just forget that a similar front seven allowed ten different running backs to post top-10 numbers against them in 2019. Drake should be considered a high-end RB2 with some upside. Edmonds looks likely to net 6-10 touches per game, which can have value in plus matchups, though we don’t know if this one is just yet. I’d consider him an emergency RB4/5.

WRs
Terry McLaurin: One of the benefits of being a team’s No. 1 receiver is that you’ll get targeted the most. One of the drawbacks is that you’ll see the opposing No. 1 cornerback more often than not. McLaurin had to deal with Darius Slay last week and will now deal with Patrick Peterson this week. In their matchup against the 49ers, he didn’t allow a single catch on the three targets he saw in coverage. Now, that was against essentially all backups, but Peterson has been one of the best cornerbacks in football for quite some time. Still, we can’t anticipate Washington getting the ball in their opponent’s territory over and over like they did last week, which should lead to a lot more than the 31 pass attempts that Haskins had last week. We can’t ignore all the volume McLaurin can get as the top option, either. He was able to muster up 5/61/0 on seven targets against Slay last week, too. You should be willing to play him as a low-end WR2 in this matchup, and one who comes with a solid floor.

Steven Sims: We talked about how tough Sims’ matchup was last week, so to see him get just three targets is no surprise. He turned them into 50 yards, so it wasn’t a bad performance with all things considered. The Cardinals had second-year cornerback Byron Murphy covering the slot when the Eagles went three-wide last week, so we should probably assume that happens again this week. Murphy didn’t play so well last year on the perimeter in his rookie year, but he got off to a great start in 2020 when he broke up two passes on five targets in coverage and allowed just 27 yards total. It’s just one game, but it’s a step in the right direction. I’m expecting Washington to throw the ball a bit more this week, which should lead to five-plus targets for Sims, so he should be considered a decent floor WR5-type play, particularly in PPR formats.

DeAndre Hopkins: Holy targets, Batman! In his first game with Kyler Murray, Hopkins reminded everyone that it doesn’t matter who his quarterback is. He caught 14-of-16 passes for 151 yards. He didn’t score, though he came very close and was ultimately ruled down at the half-yard-line. That was against the 49ers. Now he’ll go against the Washington secondary that lacks top-tier talent. While Hopkins is clearly going to remain in the elite conversation, we should see this offense even out a bit as the weeks go on, as Christian Kirk won’t be simply forgotten. The matchup for him this week doesn’t get much better than this though, as he’ll see Fabian Moreau in coverage. A cornerback who’s allowed a 70.2 percent catch-rate in his coverage over his three years in the league. He only came on the field in 3WR sets last week, which is the base for the Cardinals offense. Start Hopkins as the WR1 you normally would. He can be considered in cash lineups, too, because his average air yards were just 6.5 yards in Week 1, which means if they want to alleviate the pressure on Murray from this Washington pass rush, they will go to him early and often.

Christian Kirk: When I thought about Kirk, all I could do was suck air through my teeth when thinking about his Week 1 performance that netted zero yards on five targets. What most don’t realize is that he was the sacrificial lamb to Hopkins last week, playing almost all his snaps on Richard Sherman‘s side of the field. It obviously worked out. Ronald Darby is someone who’s continually missed time over the last few years and is no longer the same player. Since the start of last season, he’s allowed 42-of-68 passing for 745 yards and six touchdowns. Yikes. It certainly helps that his front four are generating pressure, which means he doesn’t have to hold coverage too long. The longer he’s asked to remain in coverage, the worse things get for him. While that’s true with most cornerbacks, his 17.7 yards per reception highlights that. If Murray can buy time for Kirk to get downfield, this could be a bounce-back game for him. Think of him as a solid low-owned option to pair with Murray in tournaments. He’s a risky WR4 option in redraft but one that could pay off.

Larry Fitzgerald: Dating back to last year, Fitzgerald hasn’t topped 56 yards in his last seven games. He hasn’t topped 71 yards since back in Week 2 of last year. He’s an all-time great, but one that is essentially a Danny Amendola/Cole Beasley-like fantasy option. With that being said, he may be asked to be a bigger part of the offense this week. With the Washington pass rush being as ferocious as it is, the ball needs to come out quickly, and what better way than to target Fitzgerald against Jimmy Moreland? He’s a second-year cornerback who’s 5-foot-10 and 179 pounds. He’s also allowed 77.1 percent of passes come his way to be completed. He’s only allowed one touchdown on 48 targets, but Fitzgerald should win this matchup pretty easily. If you’re looking for a WR4/5 with a decent floor, Fitzgerald should deliver.

TEs
Logan Thomas: Remember last week when I said we needed to watch Thomas’ role after hearing about him doing well in training camp? Well, he played 52 snaps and saw eight targets against the usually dominant against tight ends Eagles defense, turning them into 4/37/1. He’s someone to consider for streamers if that’s how things are going to go. The Cardinals were the team that allowed the all-time most fantasy points to tight ends in 2019. Seriously, there were 13 tight ends who finished top-10 against them, and another two tight ends who finished TE16 and TE17. On the season, they allowed 311.3 PPR points to the position while no other team in the league allowed more than 242.9 points. They drafted Isaiah Simmons in the first round to help with that, and it looked good on paper, though George Kittle‘s injury skews the overall numbers. Kittle and Jordan Reed combined for 6/56/0 on seven targets, so it was still a decent performance. Thomas is far from a guarantee, but if you’re looking for a streamer with a good matchup, he’s got it.

Dan Arnold: I remember watching GMFB this year and hearing Peter Schrager say something about Arnold being a sleeper and I thought, “really?” He played 45 snaps in Week 1, including 32 pass plays. Only Hopkins, Kirk, and Fitzgerald had more. He was targeted just twice in that matchup against the 49ers, which was tough on paper, but he caught both of them for 21 yards. Washington allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends last year, though it was under another head coach, so the scheme has changed. With that being said, the combination of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert went for 11/119/2 last week. I’m not comparing Arnold to them, but rather saying that Washington might still have issues defending the position. You can’t start him considering how good the other matchups are for the Cardinals pass catchers, but if you want to take a shot in a tournament, it might pay off.