Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 49.0
Line: TB by 9.0

QBs
Teddy Bridgewater: It wasn’t a great debut for Bridgewater last week against a relatively weak Raiders defense. He finished with 270 yards and one touchdown, though he had 195 yards and no touchdowns without a safety overcutting a ball that led to an easy touchdown for Robby Anderson. The Bucs defense looked good against the Saints, too, holding Drew Brees to just 18-of-30 passing for 160 yards and two touchdowns. He was pressured on 25 percent of his dropbacks while having one of the best offensive lines in the business. Over their last seven games (going back to the end of last year) he Bucs have now held all but one quarterback to 17.0 fantasy points or less. That’s quite the difference from when they allowed seven of the first 10 quarterbacks to score 20-plus fantasy points at the start of 2019. It also doesn’t help that the Panthers are projected for just 20 points in this game. Coming off a major letdown against the Saints, I’m fully expecting the Bucs to come back home and win this one rather easily. Bridgewater is fine in 2QB formats, but I wouldn’t stream him in standard formats.

Tom Brady: It was always going to be a tough matchup for the Bucs against the Saints on the road, but the Bucs offense looked rougher than we expected. Still, I don’t think many realize how good the Saints defense is and that that team is built for a Super Bowl. But all things considered, Brady walked out of that game with 20.46 fantasy points, so it could be much worse. If they need a confidence builder, they get one this week. The Panthers defense is in bad shape after a rough offseason where they lost seven starters on the defensive side of the ball. They also had their top cornerback Donte Jackson suffer an ankle injury in Week 1, limiting him to just 11 snaps. Derek Carr didn’t have to do much against them last week as Josh Jacobs rumbled for three touchdowns, which has been a trend against the Panthers, who’ve now allowed 30 rushing touchdowns over their last 17 games. That’s the concern with Brady, that the Bucs just run away with the game and they run the ball 30-plus times, limiting his potential. However, the Bucs did throw the ball 59 percent in neutral gamescripts last year, which was the 12th-highest mark. They are projected for 29 points in this game, which amounts to four touchdowns. The Panthers also didn’t register a single sack, so Brady should have a lot more time, as he was pressured on 31.7 percent of his dropbacks last week. You could see this as a statement game from the Bucs, so Brady should still post quality low-end QB1/high-end QB2 numbers, but the running backs are likely going to limit his ceiling a tad. It also doesn’t help that Chris Godwin is in the concussion protocol.

RBs
Christian McCaffrey: He’s now played in 32 games over the last three seasons (excluding Week 17 where he played one quarter). He’s scored at least 17.0 PPR points in 28 of them. He’s scored 20 or more PPR points in 26 of them. It clearly doesn’t matter what offense he’s playing in or which quarterback is under center. He’s just flat out great. He’ll be tested this week, as there’s been one team in the last three years who’s been able to hold him to fewer than 13.5 PPR points, and that was the Bucs in Week 2 last year when he tallied just 37 yards on 16 carries, and two receptions for 16 yards. He bounced back in the second meeting with two touchdowns, but he still left a lot to be desired, as he totaled just 57 total yards on 27 touches. That was a common theme among running backs against the Bucs last year, as they allowed just four RB1 performances on the season. They were No. 1 in the league against the run (3.02 yards per carry) and the pass (4.21 yards per target to running backs). The only running back to rush for more than 75 yards was Chris Carson. We saw the Saints running backs struggle last week too, totaling just 69 yards on 29 carries (2.38 YPC), but Kamara salvaged his day with two touchdowns. Basically, if McCaffrey doesn’t score, he’s not likely to have his patented 20-point PPR game. You’re starting him no matter what, but this is a week to exercise some caution in DFS cash game lineups.

Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette: Go ahead and admit it to yourself: Ronald Jones looked extremely good in Week 1. His 3.88 yards per carry may not seem like a ton, but he continually fought for every yard he got against a tough Saints defense. He led the backfield with 19 touches and 33 snaps, while Fournette ended with six touches and nine snaps. LeSean McCoy was in on 21 passing plays, but given the expected gamescript, this should be a run-heavy game for the Bucs. The Panthers defense has now allowed a preposterous 30 rushing touchdowns in their last 17 games. Over their last six games, there hasn’t been a single backfield that’s totaled fewer than 29 touches. They’ve averaged a massive 32.3 touches per game in that time. In the matchups last year, Jones and Peyton Barber combined to rush for 132 yards and three touchdowns on just 40 carries against them, and that was before they lost seven starters on defense. There are still nightmares in the back of our minds with Barber last year when Jones seemed like the clear-cut starter, so we shouldn’t be automatically saying Jones is a top-12 start or anything, but given what we saw in Week 1, he should be started as an RB2 with top-five upside in this plus-matchup. It’s possible we see Fournette ramped into a bigger role this week, and knowing the Raiders running backs combined for 206 total yards and three touchdowns, it’s possible the Bucs produce two fantasy relevant running backs this week. I’d still consider Fournette a touchdown dependent RB4 where it takes some projecting to get him higher than that. *Update* It doesn’t hurt that interior lineman Kawaan Short and defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos have been ruled out for this game, either. 

WRs
D.J. Moore: Are we past the days of Moore getting double-digit targets every week? I sure hope not. He did lead the wide receivers with nine targets last week, but it’s concerning to see it be such an even mix with the others (Anderson 8, Samuel 8). In a new offense with a new quarterback, anything is possible. We don’t want to overreact to one week, but we must pay attention. The Bucs secondary was always the weak point, though their cornerbacks seemed to turn a corner towards the end of the season. The combination of Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, and Sean Murphy-Bunting held the Saints receivers to just seven receptions, 36 yards, and one touchdown on 11 targets last week, which included a complete shutdown of Michael Thomas, who had one of the worst games of his career (3/17/0). Davis moved back and forth last week, nearly shadowing Thomas, so it would make sense for them to give Moore the same treatment. Moore tallied 9/89/0 and 7/73/0 against them last year, though we also need to mention that Thomas had massive games against them last year. This Bucs defense may not be the pushover it once was. Knowing the matchup combined with the even target share, Moore is stuck in the middling WR2 conversation.

Robby Anderson: We talked about it last week, that Anderson’s skillset actually matched up well with the Raiders defense, so it was good to see him take advantage while racking up eight targets, six receptions, 115 yards, and a touchdown. Will Anderson pull the same disappearing act he did while in New York, though? He’s going to be seeing a lot of Jamel Dean this week, a cornerback who has 4.30-second speed to keep up with him. Dean has only seen 52 targets in coverage over the course of his career, but he’s looked solid on them, allowing just 27 receptions (51.9 percent catch rate) for 363 yards and three touchdowns, while intercepting two passes. We also saw the Bucs safety play step up last week and not allow Saints receivers to get behind them. Anderson is clearly someone we’ll be monitoring to see if there’s some consistency, but I wouldn’t want to rely on him as anything more than a WR4 this week.

Curtis Samuel: We heard all the negative reports about Samuel out of training camp, but he still went out there in Week 1 and garnered eight targets and one carry. He was the same inefficient player he was in 2019, totaling just 43 scoreless yards on those opportunities. Did you know that among 157 receivers who’ve seen at least 100 targets in a season over the last five years, Samuel’s 0.96 yards per route run in 2019 was the worst? His 1.31 YPRR in Week 1 was slightly better than Seth Roberts. He did play 72.4 percent of his snaps in the slot, which actually gives him the best matchup on the field against the Bucs, as Sean Murphy-Bunting hasn’t been what you’d call good at covering the slot. He’s only played 17 NFL games, but in those games, he’s been targeted 76 times for 55 receptions, 547 yards, and five touchdowns. Samuel posted 4/70/1 and 5/91/0 against this defense last year, so it’s possible he turns out to be a decent play this week, though I’d play some guys with more proven track records over him. He should be considered a WR4/5 option who just might be a dark horse to lead them in receiving this week.

Chris Godwin: I was curious as to how the Bucs would align Godwin in the offense, so I’m glad to report that he played in the slot on 80 percent of his snaps. Last year, that number was at 63.4 percent, so we’re in business. The Panthers cornerback unit is not good, and they have rookie Troy Pride covering the slot at times, so this could get ugly for him really quick. He was only targeted once in slot coverage last week, and that netted a 23-yard touchdown. With the injury to Donte Jackson, it could force them to use Corn Elder in the slot, a former fifth-round pick who’s seen just six targets in coverage over the course of his career. Of those six targets, two went for touchdowns. The Bucs can pick on this defense in a lot of different ways, but considering Godwin appears to be Brady’s go-to weapon over the middle of the field, there’s little reason to doubt him in a game they’re projected for 28.3 points. Start Godwin as an elite WR1. *Update* Godwin showed up to the facility on Wednesday with symptoms of a concussion and was placed into the protocol at that time. Seeing as there are hurdles to cross once you get there, it seems like a long-shot for him to play. Stay tuned as the weekend goes on, but we’ve received no evidence to say he’ll suit up this week. He’s officially listed as doubtful. 

Mike Evans: It was a surprise on Saturday to find out that Evans was upgraded to questionable. It was even more of a surprise to see him play 65-of-70 snaps, just one less than Chris Godwin. The results weren’t great, but you guys already knew about how tough the matchup was going to be against Marshon Lattimore. The good news is that he came out of this game setback-free. The Panthers cornerback unit did a decent job slowing Evans last year when he tallied 9/96/0 on 16 targets, and then 4/61/0 on eight targets, though there’s one big change that needs to be noted. The Panthers lost James Bradberry, the cornerback who covered him in those games. Now, it’ll be combination of Troy Pride, Rasul Douglas, and Corn Elder trying to cover him. Those three combined to allow 9/140/1 on 11 targets against the Raiders last week. The concern with Evans here is that the matchup is good on so many levels for their run game, and Godwin appeared to have a better connection with Brady. But this is a game where the Bucs can produce a multitude of fantasy options, so get Evans back in lineups as a WR2 with upside should Brady decide to pepper him with targets. *Update* If Godwin misses this game, which seems likely, Evans would be a must-start WR1. 

Scotty Miller: It’s clear who the Bucs No. 3 receiver is, as Miller ran 35 routes, just eight less than Godwin did. Miller played on the perimeter more than he did in the slot, which is better news for Godwin than it is for Miller, though he was targeted down the field a few times. His six targets were likely a reflection of Evans’ matchup with Marshon Lattimore, though Miller’s matchup wasn’t a cakewalk with Janoris Jenkins, either. The Panthers are a team that can be picked on through the air or on the ground, though it’s hard to trust Miller, who falls behind Godwin, Evans, and the run game on the pecking order. You shouldn’t completely write off Miller considering his near full-time role in this offense, but you also should play it cautiously after one solid performance, even if it was in a tough matchup. He’s a last-minute replacement WR5 for now. *Update* If Godwin were to miss the game, Miller would move into WR4 territory. 

TEs
Ian Thomas: Despite playing 44-of-67 snaps in a matchup that’s been good for tight ends, Thomas saw just two targets that netted two receptions for 16 scoreless yards. In a new offense, it’s possible they just don’t utilize the tight end position very much. The Bucs allowed 11 tight ends to finish as top-15 options last year, but they did upgrade their safety unit in the draft when they selected Antoine Winfield Jr. It didn’t seem to help that much against Jared Cook last week when he racked up 80 yards on seven targets against this defense. Still, we need to see Thomas actually get targeted before considering him as a streamer. Don’t forget the Raiders (the team he played last week) were a team that allowed 12 tight ends to finish as top-16 options last year.

Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard: As it turns out, Gronkowski led the Bucs tight ends in snaps. But does that matter? Howard ran just one fewer route than Gronk and totaled twice the targets (6 to 3), 25 more yards (36 to 11), and a touchdown in his debut with Tom Brady. You typically follow the snaps to production at tight end, but when the routes are the same, go with the more efficient one, and in this case, it’s probably Howard. The Panthers were one of the best in the league at defending tight ends last year, largely in part to do with the fact that just two tight ends saw more than six targets against them all season. But again, this is a new defense with maybe eight new starters on it. All we have is Darren Waller‘s six-catch, 45-yard performance from last week. Knowing there are plus matchups all over the field for the Bucs, I would try to wait a week to see if a trend develops between these two before trusting either of them in fantasy lineups. Knowing Gronk was the only one who had chemistry with Brady, you’d have thought he’d produce more early on, but that wasn’t the case. Howard would be my choice of the two right now.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets

Total: 42.5
Line: SF by 7.0

QBs
Jimmy Garoppolo: I’ll be honest. Garoppolo did much better than I thought he’d do in Week 1 given his situation at wide receiver. It was a plus matchup, but his top receiver was Kendrick Bourne. Now we have to worry about George Kittle being active? That’s brutal. He has another plus matchup this week against the Jets who were just torn apart by Josh Allen, who threw for more than 266 yards for the first time in his career. He finished with 312 yards on 46 pass attempts but left plenty on the field. Despite the Jets missing a lot of their talent up the middle of the field, they held the Bills running backs to just 41 yards on 18 carries last week, so if the 49ers want to attack the clear weakness of this Jets team, through the air is where they should go. With that being said, it’s not really a smash spot. Their secondary allowed just four quarterbacks average more than 7.7 yards per attempt against them last year (Allen averaged 6.8 in Week 1), so it has taken volume or rushing to achieve top-12 type numbers. Garoppolo doesn’t have either of those on his side. He should present a decent low-end QB2 floor, but I don’t see a path to a ceiling with his group of pass catchers.

Sam Darnold: He’s now played 14 games under Adam Gase. In those games, he’s posted more than 15.8 fantasy points in just five of them. In fact, he’s scored 13.0 or less fantasy points in eight of them. If you’re contemplating him against a 49ers defense that’s allowed just two quarterbacks average more than 7.4 yards per attempt over their last 17 games, you have big issues. He lost his best pass-catching running back and his team implied total is 17.8 points. Darnold is not even a great option in 2QB formats.

RBs
Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Jerick McKinnon: In the first game since Mostert’s contract extension, we saw him total 37 snaps compared to 19 for McKinnon and six for Coleman. Not only was it the snaps, but more importantly, the opportunities. Mostert 20, McKinnon 8, Coleman 6. To be fair, the 49ers didn’t even know if Coleman was going to play last week due to the air quality concerns colliding with his asthma. This Kyle Shanahan coached backfield took all sorts of twists and turns last year, so this week will mean a lot. If Mostert gets a similar workload, I’ll be all in. The Jets are going to present a tough matchup, though. Since Gregg Williams became the defensive coordinator at the start of the 2019 season, they’ve allowed a miniscule 1,101 yards on 353 carries, which amounts to 3.12 yards per carry, which is the second-lowest mark in the league over that time. There were only six running backs who totaled at least 15 carries against them last year, and all of those running backs finished as the RB20 or better, so that’s the magic number. It is worth noting that the Jets defense has lost some of their key playmakers over the last few months as linebacker C.J. Mosley opted out, they traded away safety Jamal Adams, and now linebacker Avery Williamson was forced to miss Week 1 with a hamstring injury. This is strength against strength, but I’m guessing the 49ers run game will prevail, even if it’s nothing massive. Mostert comes with some risk of this backfield returning to 2019 form but should probably be played as a high-end RB3 until proven otherwise. It helps knowing he saw five targets last week due to all the injuries to receivers, which raises his floor. Coleman didn’t play enough snaps to even consider him this week, though as we’ve seen before, things can change quickly. Fortunately, the matchup is bad enough where you don’t even need to consider him. McKinnon also saw five targets last week, a number that can actually increase in Week 2 considering how good the Jets are against the run. There were 17 running backs who totaled 20-plus receiving yards against the Jets last year, including 10 who totaled at least 36 receiving yards. If you’re looking for a last-minute replacement for someone like Le’Veon Bell, McKinnon is in the RB4 conversation.

Josh Adams and Frank Gore: Depending on how you expect the game to go, that’ll determine which running back gets more time on the field. Gore is sure to be the starter with Le’Veon Bell out, though it was Adams who played more snaps in the second half when the Jets fell behind. He played on 10 pass snaps while Gore played just four such snaps. Oddsmakers clearly think this will be a one-sided game, and not one in the Jets favor. The 49ers defense isn’t one you need to attack with running backs, though, as they allowed just seven running backs all of last year to finish better than the RB24 against them. A large part of that is due to the miniscule 400 yards they allowed through the air to running backs last year (that’s just 25.0 yards per game), which was the second fewest in the league. On top of that, they were one of just two teams who didn’t allow a receiving touchdown to running backs last year. This game figures to be a lot like last week in terms of gamescript where the Jets running backs totaled just 18 touches. We have Gore who will start and likely receive goal-line touches (though Adams got the only one last week, which came in garbage time), while Adams will be used on passing downs. Both of them should be considered low-upside RB4s. *Update* It appears that recently-signed Kalen Ballage and rookie Lamichel Perine may be ready to play this week, which would probably make Adams a non-factor. Avoid this situation if at all possible. 

WRs
Brandon Aiyuk: It seemed like he was getting close to playing last week but was ultimately scratched. He did get in limited practices on both Thursday and Friday, so I’d assume he was close to play. The Jets signed Pierre Desir to be their top perimeter cornerback this offseason, but that went south quickly, as he allowed two touchdowns before halftime in his coverage, and that got him a quick seat on the bench. Seriously, he was benched for Nate Hairston at halftime. The other perimeter cornerback (where Aiyuk figures to play 80 percent of his snaps) is Blessuan Austin, who has seen exactly 39 career targets in his coverage. He was a sixth-round pick for the Jets in last year’s draft who was forced into starting. He hasn’t been horrible, though he’s also not someone you need to avoid. Still, it’s Aiyuk’s first game and he may be on a snap count. He’s a boom-or-bust WR5-type option. *Update* It seems Aiyuk will play after getting in full practices this week. 

Kendrick Bourne: It was Bourne who led the 49ers receivers in snaps last week, as he was the only receiver who was in on 90-plus percent of snaps. That didn’t lead to much, though, as he saw five targets that netted just two receptions for 34 yards. It was reminiscent of last year where he failed to top 42 yards in all but one game. It was usually touchdown or bust with him and it’s hard to say that changed, even with all the injuries on the team. The Jets cornerbacks are certainly a weak point, as the combination of Blessuan Austin, Brian Poole, and Pierre Desir/Nate Hairston might be the worst in the league. Desir was supposed to be an upgrade but he was benched midway through this game after allowing 4-for-4 passing for 43 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. Bourne will see a mix of all of them, as he slides all over the formation, and the Jets have allowed 21 wide receiver touchdowns over their last 17 games. Bourne isn’t sexy but he might be able to deliver last-minute WR5 startability, though the signing of Sanu definitely doesn’t help.

Mohamed Sanu: The 49ers went out and signed Sanu this week, which makes sense considering his familiarity with Kyle Shanahan’s offense. The question we want to know is: How much will he play after just a couple of days with the team? Sanu’s familiar with changing teams, as this is his fourth uniform in the NFL. Just last year, he changed teams midway through the season. Remember when Emmanuel Sanders was traded to the 49ers last year? In his first game with the team (and no knowledge of Shanahan’s offense), he totaled five targets, catching four of them for 25 yards and a touchdown. Given it’s Aiyuk’s first NFL game, and that Bourne has topped 42 yards in one game since the start of last year, Sanu should be involved. There are a lot of different outcomes possible with Sanu, but he might be my favorite option on the 49ers this week.

Dante Pettis and Trent Taylor: Many will wonder which 49ers wide receiver is the beneficiary of Deebo Samuel being on IR, so I’ll let you know the snap counts for these two. Pettis played 45 snaps but saw just one target, while Taylor played 21 snaps and saw five targets. Doesn’t make you feel any better, does it? Richie James also played 10 snaps, so this is clearly a mess. If Aiyuk comes back, it’ll likely come at the expense of Pettis, as Taylor is primarily a slot receiver (71 percent of snaps).

Jamison Crowder: We knew Crowder was a relatively safe play for eight-plus targets last week and considered a stable WR3, but seeing 13 of them was enough to get him into the top-six wide receivers for Week 1. Now that Le’Veon Bell is out for at least this week (and maybe more), Crowder’s high target share should continue. The 49ers have K’Waun Williams covering the slot, which is a much tougher matchup than Crowder had last week. Williams has been great since the start of 2019, allowing just 5.49 yards per target in his coverage with one touchdown on 77 targets in coverage. Going back through the game logs last year, the slot receivers who gave the 49ers some fits were those who were big-slot guys like Tyler Boyd, Chris Godwin, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Crowder and the Jets are going to have difficulty keeping drives alive against this defense, which likely means limited pass attempts for a team that has an 18.3-point implied team total. I don’t think Crowder is going to bust or anything, but he’s a limited ceiling low-end WR3/high-end WR4. *Update* He’s been ruled OUT for this week’s game with a hamstring injury. 

Breshad Perriman: After dealing with a knee injury throughout training camp, Perriman was active in Week 1 and played all 56 snaps. It’s fair to say he’s doing okay. The results weren’t what anyone would want, as he caught 3-of-5 targets for just 17 yards. The matchup against the Bills was brutal, so you don’t want to hold it against him too much, but the 49ers were not a defense to target with wide receivers for much of 2019. Since the start of last year, there have been 10 receivers who’ve totaled more than 15 PPR points. Every single one of them saw at least seven targets, including DeAndre Hopkins last week. Knowing that Jamison Crowder‘s matchup is a bit tougher this week, we could see Perriman get a few more targets, though it’s worth noting that the big play is unlikely to happen, as the 49ers allowed just five pass plays of 40-plus yards all of last season, which ranked second, only to the Bills. Perriman should be considered a WR5 with how many snaps he’s playing and the one-play upside he presents, but the matchups out of the gate have been brutal. *Update* The 49ers might be missing both starting cornerbacks for this game, which would certainly make Perriman a better dart throw in tournaments. 

TEs
George Kittle: It came out on Monday that Kittle is dealing with a sprained knee and will be listed as questionable in Week 2. If you were watching the game, you’re glad that’s all it was, as his knee hyperextended the wrong way. I’ll be updating his notes later in the week, so stay tuned. The Jets were one of the best in the league at defending tight ends last year, but that was with Jamal Adams on the roster. Sure, Dawson Knox totaled just two catches for 26 yards last week, but had Josh Allen just lofted the ball to him in the end zone, his stat line would’ve looked a lot better with another nine yards and a touchdown. But let’s be real – you’re starting Kittle if he’s playing, no matter the matchup. This comes down to DFS, and he’s probably too difficult to trust in cash lineups considering his knee injury. *Update* Kittle has not practiced all week, though the 49ers say he doesn’t need to practice to play. He’s turning into a risky play. If you have Kittle and want to play him, maybe snag the opposing tight end (Chris Herndon) to swap out with him if he’s held out. Kittle has officially been ruled out. Jordan Reed and Ross Dwelley will likely share the workload, and though Reed would be my preferred play of the two, I can’t say you should start him with much confidence. 

Chris Herndon: Do you know what position correlates the most with tight end targets? Running back targets. When you remove Le’Veon Bell from the offense, it should lead to a lot more targets for Herndon. We already saw him have a big role in Week 1 as he racked up seven targets in a game Darnold threw the ball 35 times. That’s a 20 percent target share in a tough matchup against the Bills. Now onto the 49ers, another tough matchup, but one where the targets need to go somewhere. There were just five tight ends who finished better than TE23 against the 49ers last year. Just four of them topped 32 yards. But again, going back to the Bills, they allowed just one tight end over 48 yards last year. Targets mean everything to a tight end and it’s why I’m willing to say Herndon is a high-end TE2 despite the tough matchup. *Update* With Jamison Crowder being ruled out, Herndon only gets a bump in safety.

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 43.0
Line: PIT by 6.5

QBs
Drew Lock: He was without one of his top weapons on Monday night, so it wasn’t all great for Lock, but we must give him time in a new offensive system with a lot of new players around him. Unfortunately, time is not something he’ll have a lot of against the Steelers. This is a defense that constantly swarmed Daniel Jones last week, getting into the backfield at will. Going back to last year, the Steelers have not allowed more than 279 yards passing in each of their last 11 games. There’ve only been five quarterbacks who’ve thrown more than one touchdown, and none of them who’ve scored more than 17.4 fantasy points. We’re expecting Courtland Sutton to come back this week, but the matchup is not one to attack for streamers. There will be better days than this one where the Broncos are projected to score just 18.3 points.

Ben Roethlisberger: It was a mixed bag for Roethlisberger in his first start, as the Giants defense looked to bring a lot more pressure than expected. But still, it was his first game back and we had to figure they’d take it easy on him with the number of attempts. This is not the same Broncos defense he was supposed to play just a couple of weeks ago, as the loss of Von Miller clearly impacted them. Ryan Tannehill was sacked just once last week. To give you an idea as to how low that number is, Tannehill was sacked 31 times on 335 dropbacks last year, or once every 10.8 dropbacks. He was sacked once on 47 dropbacks on Monday night. The Steelers offensive line didn’t look great against the Giants, but they should be able to hold their own against the Broncos without Miller. It’s still not a great matchup against Vic Fangio’s scheme that has allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than two touchdowns since he took over the team at the start of 2019. Roethlisberger has been much better at home over the last handful of years, so he does get a bode of confidence here, but oddsmakers don’t seem to think he’ll have to throw very much to win this game. Going back to his historic splits, he’s averaged 277 yards and 2.03 touchdowns in games the Steelers were favored by 6.0 or more points. That seems about right, making him a mid-to-high-end QB2 who does have a decent floor. If A.J. Bouye is ruled out for the Broncos, it only increases his appeal. Update: Bouye has been ruled OUT. 

RBs
Melvin Gordon: After hearing about Phillip Lindsay‘s injury, it appears this backfield will be solely Gordon’s moving forward, though they’ll use Royce Freeman to give him breaks from time-to-time. Gordon looked good on Monday night against a tough Titans defense outside of his fumble, totaling 86 yards and a touchdown on 18 touches. Unfortunately, he’s going into an even tougher matchup this week. The Steelers were continually thrashing into the backfield, hitting Saquon Barkley for a loss last week. He ended that game with six yards on 15 carries. No, I’m not kidding. It was a very similar story last year, as the Steelers were among the best in the league at slowing the run. Just how good were they? Well, Barkley’s six rushing yards and six catches for 60 yards would’ve been the 10th-best performance they allowed to a running back last year. There was one running back who topped 14.2 PPR points against them, and that was Kareem Hunt who totaled just 65 total yards but scored a touchdown. Gordon played against this defense this defense last year with the Chargers where he totaled just 18 yards on eight carries. Given the Broncos inability to move the ball very efficiently against the Titans, it’s tough to see them move the ball into scoring position very often while in Pittsburgh. Gordon should be a low-end RB2 on volume, but this isn’t a week to be excited about playing him.

James Conner and Benny Snell: We don’t have an official status on Conner yet, but I’m assuming he’ll be ready to go in Week 2 since he seemed willing to go back into the game against the Giants. However, with the way Snell was running, there was no rush, and there might not be a clear-cut favorite to lead this team in touches in Conner is back. Seriously, that’s how well Snell played. Granted, it wasn’t a bad matchup against the Giants, but he racked up 113 yards on 19 carries in that game, and speaking honestly, he looked better than Conner. It was a very small sample size, so we don’t want to jump to conclusions, but rather pay attention. The Broncos run defense was very good last year, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to running backs, though they did face a massive 29.1 running back touches per game, which ranked as the sixth-most in the league. So, volume was necessary. Fast forward to 2020 and they allowed Derrick Henry a scoreless 131 total yards on 34 touches. Still, this is a home team that’s favored by 6.5 points and has a 24.8-point team implied total. That’s a matchup you typically want to attack. If we hear Conner is a full participant, he should be considered the lead back and a mid-to-low-end RB2 who comes with some risk. If he’s limited throughout the week but expected to play, you should be more cautious and treat him as an RB3. Snell is going to have a role, though a lot depends on Conner’s status. Stay tuned for updates on Conner, as I’ll post them as the week goes on right here at the end of the notes. *Update* Conner has practiced in full each of the last two days and is going to play this weekend. It’s a messy situation, as they’ll go away from him if he’s ineffective. But if he’s the player they thought prior to the season, Snell is going to be there just to give him a breather. Both are extremely risky plays this week, though Conner should get the nod if you have both. 

WRs
Courtland Sutton: He was reportedly close to playing on Monday night, so I’m expecting him to suit up in Week 2, though the shoulder injury he’s dealing with essentially a pain tolerance thing. If he lands on his shoulder wrong, it could be the end of his day, so play it cautious. The Steelers secondary may have allowed some production to Darius Slayton last week, but they haven’t been a team to target with wide receivers. The Steelers continually loaded the box with defenders to stuff Saquon Barkley and it hurt them on the back end. There were just eight wide receivers who finished as top-24 options against the Steelers last year, and four of them saw nine-plus targets. The worst part about Sutton is that he doesn’t travel into the slot much at all, which means he’s going to see a ton of veterans Joe Haden and Steven Nelson. That duo allowed just a 71.5 QB Rating in their coverage last year. Unless Sutton gets in full practices all week, I’d be hesitant to use him as anything more than a WR3/4 with minimal upside in this matchup. *Update* Sutton is expected to play despite being limited in practice this week. Play at your own risk.  

Jerry Jeudy: In his first NFL game, Jeudy saw 33.3 percent of the Broncos air yards, which would’ve ranked 12th among all pass catchers last season. While it’s a very small sample size with Courtland Sutton out of the lineup, it shows that Jeudy will be relied upon in this offense as a rookie. Even better, he played most of his snaps in the slot. The Steelers aren’t a good matchup for wide receivers, but where they allowed the most production suits Jeudy well. Here are the splits with their perimeter cornerbacks compared to their nickel cornerback/safeties in coverage:

I’m not going to tell you Jeudy is a can’t-miss player going into Pittsburgh against a team that allowed just 17 wide receivers to finish top-36 against them last year, but I will say it would be wise for the Broncos to feature him in this game. He’s a risk/reward WR4 this week whose role should continue to grow.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: It was good to see Smith-Schuster out there having fun again, wasn’t it? He was only targeted six times, but he made each of them count, racking up six catches for 69 yards and two touchdowns. Him being in the slot is going to cause so many matchup problems for opposing secondaries because Diontae Johnson is a real threat, while Chase Claypool and James Washington can take the top off a defense. The Broncos have some real issues going on with their secondary, as their top cornerback A.J. Bouye had to leave the game at halftime and was ruled out with a shoulder injury, forcing Bryce Callahan to move to the perimeter. That pushed undrafted rookie Essang Bassey into the slot. If that’s who has to cover Smith-Schuster… good luck. The Broncos are a solid run-stopping unit, so we could see the Steelers use quick, short passes to move the ball, and that would move through Smith-Schuster who needs to be in lineups as a low-end WR1. The whole pass attack gets a boost if Bouye is ruled out (he was).

Diontae Johnson: It was a rough first half for Johnson last week, as he muffed a punt, then dropped a pass. He came around, though, totaling a team-high 10 targets, catching six of them for 57 yards. After seeing a high 18.0 percent target share his rookie season, that number was 31.3 percent in Week 1. The hype on him this offseason was real. Now set to face the Broncos secondary that may have just lost A.J. Bouye, we should have another startable week for Johnson. Bouye is their clear-cut No. 1 cornerback who would’ve been covering Johnson, but he suffered a shoulder injury in Week 1. This is something to pay attention to throughout the week because if Bouye sits, it’ll be up to slot cornerback Bryce Callahan and rookie Michael Ojemudia to contain Johnson. We saw Corey Davis run right through this secondary last week, racking up seven catches for 101 yards. If Bouye is out (I’m expecting him to be), fire up Johnson as a solid WR3 with upside.

James Washington and Chase Claypool: As expected, these two split the snaps as the third wide receiver on the field in Week 1. It was Washington who edged in snaps (37 to 19) targets (3 to 2) and production, but there’s not a big gap and you can’t clearly say to start one over the other, as Claypool should continue to grow as a young receiver. When starting either of them, you’re just looking for that big play because it’s very unlikely either of them see more than five targets in any given week. We’ll continue to monitor the snaps between these two moving forward, but don’t start either of them in season-long leagues until one separates from the other.

TEs
Noah Fant: We knew Fant would have an increased role with Sutton out of the lineup, and he did, totaling six targets and turning them into 5/81/1. Knowing the problems that Sutton and Jeudy present for opposing defenses, Fant should continue to find success if he gets the targets. The Steelers allowed Evan Engram just two catches for nine yards on Monday night, but it should’ve been a much bigger game, as Engram played poorly and had a few drops. The Steelers were not a team to attack in 2019 with tight ends, as they allowed the fourth-fewest yards in the league to them. They did, however, allow eight touchdowns to them. Engram should’ve had a touchdown early in the game, too, but Daniel Jones just flat out missed him. The Broncos will have trouble running the ball, so we should see 35-plus pass attempts here. It’s tough to love Fant when the Broncos have an 18.3-point implied team total, but if Sutton is out, he’s locked into five-plus targets. Because of that, he’s in the fringe TE1/TE2 conversation.

Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald: The Steelers ran more 2TE sets than I anticipated in Week 1 and it led to Ebron playing a solid 40-of-64 snaps. That’s more than I expected, though the production was spot on. Ebron saw just two targets (the same as McDonald) that resulted in one catch for 18 yards. Roethlisberger threw the ball just 32 times, so there wasn’t a lot of volume, but just four targets to the position isn’t going to do anyone anything in fantasy. The Broncos allowed just 1.59 PPR points per target to tight ends last year, which ranked as the sixth-highest number, but they also saw 129 targets, which in turn led to them allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to the position. We saw the Titans complete 7-of-10 passes to their tight ends last week for 75 yards and a touchdown, but again, that’s 10 targets, something we can’t see with Ebron and McDonald right now, especially knowing how good the matchups are for the Steelers’ wide receivers this week. Ebron is certainly my preferred option of the two, but he’s just a touchdown-dependent TE2.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Total: 42.5
Line: TEN by 9.0

QBs
Gardner Minshew: First off, congrats to Minshew on trying to ruin the Jaguars tank job. Completing 19-of-20 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for another 19 yards for a 20.8-point performance against the Colts was a great way to start the year. Unfortunately, oddsmakers are not believers. The Jaguars are projected to score just 16.8 points in this game, which is one of the lowest numbers you’ll see all year. That’s likely due to the fact that they ran just 47 plays in Week 1 and will go against a Titans team that averaged just 59.3 plays per game themselves in 2019. This will be a slow-paced game with a lot of Derrick Henry eating up the clock. The Titans have a wicked pass-rush now with Jadeveon Clowney added to the mix, which is going to be a problem for Minshew who’s playing behind a bottom-five offensive line. Still, the Titans will be without their top cornerback Adoree Jackson and did allowed 11 quarterbacks to post at least 16.9 fantasy points against them last year, including Minshew who completed 20-of-30 passes for 204 yards and two touchdowns. They’re running a new offense in Jacksonville, so it’s not apples-to-apples, but Minshew should provide a higher floor than most in the middling QB2 range, as they’re not going to be moving the ball on the ground with James Robinson against this defensive front. The lack of plays and team total has me scared off him as a streamer in 1QB leagues, but he’s fine in 2QB/Superflex.

Ryan Tannehill: The Titans only ran 59.3 plays per game in 2019, but we saw a different number in Week 1 when they ran a ridiculous 78 plays against the Broncos. That only led to 16 points, but for fantasy owners, they were happy to see Tannehill throw 43 pass attempts. He didn’t throw more than 39 times in any of his 13 starts last year (playoffs included). His 5.8 yards per attempt wasn’t great against a banged-up Broncos defense, but he was still able to turn in solid fantasy numbers. The Jaguars are a team they’re able to pass against, though you must wonder just how much will be necessary considering they’re nine-point favorites at home. The last time he played against the Jaguars (who were a better defense at that point), Tannehill threw the ball just 18 times for 259 yards and two touchdowns. I’m not worried about his efficiency; he’ll be efficient. The Jaguars secondary allowed a ridiculous 36 completions last week while some teams (18 of them) didn’t even face that many attempts. He’s a fine QB2 floor play, but this is Henry’s game to smash. If you really want to go contrarian in tournaments, stack Tannehill with Henry and one of his receivers. They’re going to score points, so playing that stack in tournaments makes some sense. *Update* A.J. Brown is not going to play with a knee injury, downgrading Tannehill’s upside in this game. 

RBs
James Robinson and Chris Thompson: The only running back in the league who got 100 percent of his team’s running back carries in Week 1 was… Robinson. His 62 yards on 16 carries was actually pretty solid against the Colts run defense, and don’t forget, the Jaguars ran just 47 plays in that game. He touched the ball on 36.2 percent of their plays. That’s massive opportunity. Unfortunately, their play count will likely be low again and they’re going against another solid run-stopping unit. They lost linebacker Rashaan Evans early in the game against the Broncos, which led to Melvin Gordon rushing for 78 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. It was also the first game they played without defensive tackle Jurrell Casey, so it’s possible they aren’t a dominant unit. Overall, they allowed 0.86 PPR points per opportunity last year to running backs, which ranked as the 12th-most, while the Colts allowed the 23rd-most. The issue here is gamescript, as we are fully expecting the Jaguars to fall behind early. Robinson ran 11 pass routes last week while Thompson ran 12 routes, so it’s possible we see Robinson no matter the gamescript. Given his workload last week, he can be played as an RB3 with a decent floor, though his ceiling leaves a lot to be desired. Knowing Thompson isn’t being used on any early-down work and is splitting pass routes with Robinson, it’s fair to say he’s nothing more than a limited ceiling RB4/5 option.

Derrick Henry: Explosion week incoming? Oh yeah. Here are the last nine games the Jaguars defense has played and what they’ve allowed to running backs.

This is the definition of a smash spot. Henry’s last game against them was in Week 12 of last year when he racked up 175 total yards and two touchdowns. This defense has only gotten worse after losing the star power they once had. Start Henry as an elite RB1 and expect big results. He’s in play for both cash and tournaments this week.

WRs
D.J. Chark: Some will see Chark’s three targets and think, “Oh no, I spent too high of a draft pick on him!” I would advise against feeling that way. They threw the ball 20 times in that game, a number that’ll never happen again. In 2019, they averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game, and not only did they downgrade at running back, but their defense got worse. He’ll be just fine. He was on the field for 42 snaps while Cole played 33 and Shenault played 31. The lone downside to what we saw in Week 1 was his slot usage, as he played just 16.7 percent of his snaps in the slot. That comes after Jay Gruden talked about moving him around more, so we’ll see if it’s just too small of a sample size to judge. The Titans cornerback unit took a hit before Week 1 when they had to place Adoree Jackson on injured reserve, leaving them with Malcolm Butler, Johnathan Joseph, and rookie Kristian Fulton. While Butler and Joseph were good for a portion of their careers, they’re both well past their prime. The low team total has me concerned about the upside for Chark, but his targets should get back into the 6-8 range in this game. In two games against them last year, he caught 9-of-11 targets for 114 yards and a touchdown. Consider him a sturdy WR2 in this matchup.

Keelan Cole: He ranked No. 2 in snaps among the Jaguars receivers and is clearly the primary slot receiver in Jay Gruden’s offense, as he played 68.2 percent of his routes in the slot. That’s great, though he may take a dip if/when Dede Westbrook is active (he wasn’t in Week 1). Cole led the team in targets in Week 1, and he caught all five of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. In a game they’re expected to fall behind, we should see a lot more pass attempts. The Titans moved on from Logan Ryan this offseason, so they’re playing a mixture of rookies in the slot with Kristian Fulton and Chris Jackson. The two weren’t tested a whole lot in the opener, as they combined to see four slot targets that netted 2/28/0. We can’t assume that Cole is going to be a prominent part of this offense based on one week, though if Westbrook remains inactive, Cole should be considered a decent WR5-type option.

Laviska Shenault: It seems that Shenault stole the perimeter role opposite D.J. Chark right away, as he played 31 snaps to just 16 for Chris Conley. It stinks they’re still somewhat sharing that role, but it’s good to know Shenault was used all over the field, including the slot and backfield. We can’t get excited about a 37-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Colts weak secondary, but he should’ve been added to rosters this week with the chance that he turns into the team’s No. 2 option behind Chark. The Titans have Johnathan Joseph lining up at LCB, which is where Shenault lined up most of the time. Joseph is a proven veteran who’s past his prime, but he’s still held opposing quarterbacks under a 100 QB Rating in his coverage for 12 straight years. He used to run a 4.31 40-yard dash, so he’s not slow, though he’s obviously not that fast at 36 years old. I wouldn’t trust Shenault as anything more than a WR5 right now, though the arrow is pointing up.

A.J. Brown: It was not a great week for those who drafted Brown expecting him to take the leap into WR1 status. In fact, the last four games he’s played haven’t hinted at a breakout.

That is including the three playoff games they played last year, when the games meant the most. Look, I’m not saying Brown isn’t the wide receiver of choice, but when some were expecting a 25-30 percent target share, it seemed a bit much. The Jaguars secondary isn’t the scary unit it used to be, as Brown will see Tre Herndon in coverage more than anyone else. That’s a good thing. Herndon is a former undrafted free agent who has allowed 16.1 yards per reception when targeted, including a touchdown every 15.0 targets. The issue is lack of projected pass attempts this week, as Tannehill threw the ball just 18 times the last time these teams played. Brown didn’t need a whole lot to do damage in that game, though, as he totaled 4/135/1 on just five targets. Continue to plug him in as a WR2, though his floor is lower than most in that range. *Update* It appears Brown may miss this game due to a knee injury he’s been trying to play through. He has missed practice on Thursday and Friday, which is never a good sign. Have alternate plans. He’s officially been ruled OUT. 

Corey Davis: When targeted, Davis is a solid receiver. I don’t know why this is so hard to understand. Lack of targets has always been the issue with him. His two highest-targeted games during the 2019 season were seven and six targets. He totaled 7/80/1 and 6/91/1 in those games. The eight targets he saw in Week 1 were his most since Week 10 of 2018. He’s going to fall back into the lack of targets in Week 2 when they play the Jaguars, though. His primary matchup will be against their first-round rookie C.J. Henderson, who was targeted 10 times in his debut against the Colts. He allowed 5/58/0 on those targets, had three pass breakups, and one interception. It’s safe to say he looked good. When you compare Davis’ matchup to that of Brown, this should be a Brown game. Davis should be owned, but don’t drop him after a poor performance when the Titans are expected to throw the ball less than 30 times. *Update* If A.J. Brown misses this game, Davis moves up into the WR3 conversation as Tannehill’s No. 1 receiver. Another update, Brown has been ruled out. 

TEs
Tyler Eifert and James O’Shaughnessy: I figured it would be 80-plus percent of Eifert at tight end, but nope. The Jaguars had him play 28 snaps while O’Shaughnessy played 20 himself. There’s also a gentleman named Ben Ellefson who played 13 snaps. The Titans were one of the worst in the league at defending tight ends last year (allowed the sixth-most fantasy points) and that continued in Week 1 when Noah Fant turned six targets into 5/81/1 against them, but let’s get serious, you aren’t considering either of these tight ends.

Jonnu Smith: It was refreshing to see Smith tally seven targets in Week 1. Do you know how many times he hit that number in 2019? Once. While Tannehill won’t be dropping to pass 40-plus times very often, it was good to know it’s physically possible (didn’t throw more than 39 times last year). The Titans are going to run the ball a lot in this matchup, similar to the way a lot of teams did in 2019. Because of that, tight ends totaled just 95 targets against them, which was the fifth-lowest number in the league. They did allow production when they were targeted, though. The 8.31 yards per target they allowed to the position ranked as the fifth-highest mark in the league. They also allowed a touchdown every 13.6 targets, which ranked as the seventh most often. Unfortunately, he saw just three targets combined in the two games against them last year, so it’s probably best to find another streamer this week. If the Titans pass more than I’m expecting, it could pay off, but I wouldn’t bet on it with a nine-point spread.