Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -8.5
Total: 46

Bengals at Texans Betting Matchup

QBs
Ryan Finley or Brandon Allen: We don’t know who will be starting for the Bengals this week, but it’s tough to say it matters all that much, as Finley and Allen have combined to go 72-of-116 for 670 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. That amounts just 5.78 yards per attempt and a 3.4 percent touchdown-rate. If there’s one matchup where you might be able to consider them in 2QB formats, it’s against the Texans. They’ve allowed 102.5 PPR points per game to their opponents overall, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the NFL. They’ve allowed 27 passing touchdowns, while intercepting just three passes all year long, which seems unbelievable. On average, quarterbacks have posted 0.536 fantasy points per pass attempt against them, which ranks behind only the Jaguars, Lions, and Cowboys. Since losing Bradley Roby to suspension three games ago, they’ve allowed 73-of-96 passing for 780 yards (8.13 YPA) and seven touchdowns (7.3 percent touchdown-rate).  The only quarterback who threw more than 22 passes against the Texans and didn’t finish with 17-plus fantasy points was Matthew Stafford, who still threw for 295 yards and one touchdown. If you’re looking for a last-minute QB2, Finley (assuming he starts) might work out. *Update* Allen has been removed from the injury report but the Bengals haven’t named a starter. 

Deshaun Watson: Since losing Will Fuller for the year, Watson has gone out and finished as the QB14, QB18, and QB10, so he hasn’t lost all his value. His three matchups were against the Colts (twice) and Bears, so they were both bottom-12 matchups for quarterbacks, and he was without Brandin Cooks for one of those games. In the end, Watson hasn’t finished with fewer than 16.5 fantasy points in 12-of-14 games this year, so if you rode him here, you’re not likely going to stop now. And to be fair, the two games where he didn’t hit that mark were against the Ravens (in Week 2) and the Browns (high-wind/rain game). The Bengals have turned out to be a slightly tougher matchup than expected, as they’ve now allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, though part of that is due to the success that teams have had on the ground. Based on strictly passing, the Bengals have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per actual pass attempt. Over the last five weeks, they haven’t allowed a quarterback to finish higher than the QB20 or with more than 16.1 fantasy points. It doesn’t make that much sense, though. They’ve generated a sack on just 3.17 percent of dropbacks, which is the third-lowest number in the league. The other four teams in the bottom-five of sack-rate rank in the top-12 for fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The strength of schedule is part of the reason, as quarterbacks have averaged just 0.2 fewer fantasy points against the Bengals than they have on the season, so it’s essentially just an average matchup. Knowing the Texans don’t have the greatest run-game, we should be relying on Watson to be involved in the majority of the 27.3 points they’re implied for.

RBs
Gio Bernard: After watching Joe Mixon average 3.60 yards per carry and Bernard average just 3.26 yards per carry, you might think to yourself, “Are the Bengals running backs struggling because opponents are stacking the box?” The answer is no. Mixon saw eight-plus defenders in the box just 8.4 percent of the time while Bernard has 13.3 percent of the time; both rank in the bottom-12 for that category. The blocking up front has been a massive issue and they haven’t done anything to overcome it. In fact, Bernard has averaged 0.58 fewer yards per carry than he’s supposed to, so he’s costing them half of a yard every time they hand him the ball. But naturally, because 2020, he had his best game of the year against the Steelers where he finished with 97 total yards and two touchdowns. That’s going to lead many wondering whether or not he should be started against the Texans this week. We know they have allowed tons of fantasy points to their opponents in general (fifth-most) and running backs have accounted for 37 percent of the production they allow to skill-position players, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. Their defense as a whole has allowed 1.55 PPR points per offensive play, which is more than all but three other teams. But can the Bengals take advantage of their biggest weakness? They’ve allowed a league-high 1,916 yards on the ground to running backs, which amounts to a ridiculous 136.9 rushing yards per game. There are 22 teams in the league who don’t allow that many total yards to running backs. If you want to talk about total yards, it gets even better for the Bengals running backs, as the Texans have allowed a robust 180.9 total yards per game to running backs. On the year, they’ve allowed 267 more yards than any other team. There’s nothing that can better sum up this matchup than this: The Texans have played 14 games this year. The Texans have also allowed 17 different running backs finish as the RB21 of better against them. There’s been just one game this year where they haven’t allowed a top-20 running back, and it was way back in Week 5 when James Robinson finished with 70 total yards and no touchdown. Bernard is back in the low-end RB2/high-end RB3 conversation due to the matchup.

David Johnson and Duke Johnson: What a relief it was to finally see David used in the passing game. We knew it was going to be an issue for him upon being traded to the Texans, but as it turns out, all it took was injuries/suspensions to the two starting receivers and the third-down running back. Coming into last week’s game, Johnson had 16 receptions for 161 yards through nine games. He finished with 11 receptions for 106 yards in last week’s game alone. If Duke remains out, it’s clear that Watson is now willing to target him in the passing game. Unlike last week, Johnson should be able to generate some yardage on the ground. The Bengals have allowed an extremely healthy 4.89 yards per carry this season, and though the Steelers passing attack struggled last week, we watched Benny Snell rush for 84 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. The Steelers running backs hadn’t rushed for more than 69 yards as a team since back in Week 11 before that game. There have been 13 running backs who’ve totaled 60-plus rushing yards against the Bengals, including 12 who finished as top-24 running backs. Of the 12 running backs who’ve totaled 15-plus touches against the Bengals, 10 of them were able to finish as top-20 running backs. When taking weighted opportunity into consideration, the Bengals rank as the 14th-best matchup, so slightly above average. When you add in the projected gamescript and volume Johnson has, you have what looks like a solid high-end RB2. If Duke Johnson returns, it would certainly cap his ceiling as a pass-catcher, so we’ll revisit that on Saturday morning to see what his status is. *Update* Duke is out for this game, making David a great play.

WRs
Tyler Boyd: What Boyd went up for was a touchdown, but what he came down with was a concussion. That game was on Monday, so it leaves him with one less day to get cleared to play in this game. If you’re planning to play Boyd, you’ll need to pay attention to updates as the week progresses. It’s not to say Boyd is a must-play every week anymore, as he’s finished with 43 or less yards in 3-of-4 games without Joe Burrow under center. However, this matchup against the Texans is one that makes you consider anyone with an ounce of talent, which Boyd certainly has. When you look at fantasy points allowed to skill-position players, the Texans have allowed 83.2 PPR points per game to them, which ranks second to only the Lions. The Bengals are one of the more wide receiver-heavy teams when it comes to usage, so that’s a big deal. When wide receivers get targeted, production follows, as evidenced by the 2.04 PPR points per target they’ve allowed to them, which ranks as the second-highest number in the NFL. They have a shortage with cornerback talent and they have safety Eric Murray covering the slot, which hasn’t turned out so well. He’s allowed 47-of-59 passing for 552 yards and four touchdowns in his slot coverage this year, which included Zach Pascal‘s big performance last week. If Boyd gets cleared, he should receive low-end WR3/high-end WR4 consideration. *Update* Boyd has been ruled OUT for this week’s game. 

Tee Higgins: Due to unforeseen circumstances, you know, the Bengals actually winning the game, Higgins only saw six targets and caught three passes for 31 yards against the Steelers. There’s actually some good news in there, though. His six targets accounted for 53.8 percent of the pass attempts that Ryan Finley threw in that game. It’s such a small sample size, but it’s clear that no matter what quarterback is under center, they want to get Higgins the ball. Against the Texans, that’s all you really need. The Texans have allowed 8.77 yards per target to wide receivers this year, which is the eighth-highest mark in the league, and that was with Bradley Roby for most of the year. With the suspension to Bradley Roby, the Texans have been forced to turn to Phillip Gaines in the secondary. Let’s just say that hasn’t gone great. He’s allowed a league-high 3.00 PPR points per target in his coverage. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the Texans are the second-best matchup for No. 1 wide receivers, which is precisely what Higgins has been to this offense. Even when you factor in competition, opposing wide receivers have averaged 0.19 more PPR points per target against the Texans than they have in non-Texans matchups. Higgins will see Keion Crossen, a former seventh-round pick who’s allowed 20-of-24 passing for 262 yards in his limited playing time over the last three years. It doesn’t come without risk, but Higgins is someone who should be in the low-end WR3 conversation. *Update* With Tyler Boyd being ruled out, Higgins should get solid WR3 consideration. 

A.J. Green: He hasn’t looked bad over the last two weeks while hauling in eight balls for 102 yards. We now have just one week of fantasy left and Green still ranks 13th in air yards, which is typically a great indicator for success. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. The Texans matchup is good enough to at least mention Green and the role he might have if Boyd is out of the lineup. The Texans have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and it would be more if teams didn’t run the ball so well against them. Knowing the Bengals aren’t the team who’ll rush for 150-plus yards, so you have to think the wide receivers will enjoy a bit more of the production. There have been seven wide receivers who’ve been able to crank out double-digit PPR points against them over the last four games, so there’s a chance for multiple receivers to produce. Now suspended Bradley Roby allowed just 0.72 yards per snap in his coverage, which ranked as the seventh-best mark in football. The other Texans cornerbacks who’ve played significant snaps have allowed: Vernon Hargreaves 1.48, Eric Murray 1.29, and Phillip Gaines 1.76. If Boyd sits, Green might not be the worst WR4/5 option. If Boyd plays, Green is more of a plus-matchup WR5. *Update* Boyd has been ruled out, giving Green a solid bump in the rankings.

Brandin Cooks: He returned to the lineup and played 68-of-69 snaps, so it’s safe to say he’s good to go and over his neck injury. He saw seven targets in his return, turning them into six catches for 59 yards against the Colts. He’s only played two games against them since Will Fuller‘s disappearance, so it’s hard to say what his new world looks like, though 15 targets in two games certainly isn’t bad. Cooks has now totaled at least 11.5 PPR points in eight of his last nine games, though he’s failed to score more than 13.5 PPR points in six of his last seven games. He’s essentially turned into a high-floor receiver who’s lacking a ceiling. He’s now going into a matchup with a Bengals secondary that’s allowed 20 wide receives to finish as top-40 options with double-digit PPR points against them, with 11 of them who’ve finished as top-24 options. While Diontae Johnson finished as the No. 10 wide receiver last week, the Bengals hadn’t allowed a top-24 receiver in their previous four games, so they’ve been playing better as of late. Based on the competition they’ve played, they Bengals have allowed the 14th-most schedule-adjusted points to wide receivers. There are still unanswered questions about Cooks’ role and what his upside is with Fuller gone, but there’s clearly a WR3-type floor. Once you factor in some upside, he moves to the high-end of that WR3 territory.

Keke Coutee: In the three games without Will Fuller in the lineup, Coutee has seen 19 targets, though his two highest-targeted games were against the same team (Colts), so we can’t come away with anything concrete about his role. However, Deshaun Watson has always highly targeted his wide receivers, and those targets have to go somewhere, so it would make sense that Coutee is someone who should see five-plus targets per game. Unfortunately, he probably has the toughest matchup of the Texans wide receivers this week, as Mackensie Alexander has been the best cornerback on the Bengals roster. He’s allowed just 6.85 yards per target while allowing one touchdown on 65 targets in his coverage, while the perimeter cornerbacks (William Jackson and Darius Phillips) have allowed nine in theirs. Alexander is coming off a game where he held JuJu Smith-Schuster to negative fantasy points, so that’s obviously not great. Coutee is a different type of receiver, but if it’s a “pick your battle” matchup, Coutee could fall behind Cooks and Hansen in the pecking order. Coutee should be considered more of a WR4 this week.

Chad Hansen: He’s made his mark in fantasy leagues since Will Fuller was suspended, producing top-40 wide receiver numbers and posting at least 55 yards in each of the three games. While he’d seen seven targets in each of his first two games, he saw that number dip to just three targets in Week 15, which might have some concerned. If you believe David Johnson will see 11 targets again, then it’s unlikely Hansen gets more than a handful of targets. If Johnson’s targets seem like an outlier, you may want to consider Hansen likely to see five-plus targets. The Bengals see an average of 20.1 wide receiver targets per game while the Texans wide receivers have seen 20.4 targets per game, so the volume should be relatively close to what we’ve seen all year. The cornerback matchups are not great for them, as the Bengals secondary has really stepped up this year, as none of the starting cornerbacks have allowed greater than an 89.6 QB Rating in their coverage.  The 7.81 yards per targets they’ve allowed to wide receivers is the 11th-lowest mark in the league, so it’s not an easy matchup by any means. Hansen is still on the WR4/5 radar based on what he’s done in three tough matchups to this point.

TEs
Drew Sample: The lack of pass attempts really crushed Sample’s opportunity last week, as he saw just one ball come his way. That comes after four straight games with four-plus targets, though let’s not pretend you were going to be trusting a tight end who hasn’t topped 52 yards or scored a touchdown all season. On top of that, the Texans have allowed just five tight ends to reach double-digit PPR points against them all year, and four of them saw six-plus targets. You’re not going to play Sample in a championship game with Ryan Finley or Brandon Allen under center.

Jordan Akins: We figured the suspension of Will Fuller would lead to more targets for Akins, and now that he’s seen six targets in back-to-back games (for the first time in his career), it’s safe to say his role has increased. He finished with five catches for 50 yards against the Colts, which was the fourth-most yardage they’ve allowed all year. He should’ve had a touchdown against the Bears but lost the ball in the sun. If he catches that ball, he’s viewed differently in fantasy. It seems like the Bengals are a magnet for tight end targets, as they’ve seen a league-leading 24.1 percent target share against them. It’s not just targets, either. They’ve allowed the sixth-most yards per target (7.95) to them, which has led to them allowing the third-most yards (867) to them. The production has kind of been spread all over the place, as 14 different tight ends have totaled 20-plus yards, but just seven of them were able to crack 38 yards. But between touchdowns, receptions, and yardage, they’ve allowed nine different tight ends to finish as top-16 options, which is good for streaming potential, especially when you know the wide receivers have tough matchups, and Akins is coming off back-to-back games with six targets. He’s no lock or anything, but he’s a decent mid-to-high-end TE2 this week.

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -10.5
Total: 45

Giants at Ravens Betting Matchup

QBs
Daniel Jones or Colt McCoy: We don’t know who’ll be under center for the Giants this week, and though it seems like Jones has a good chance to come back, it doesn’t matter much, does it? Outside of his two games against divisional opponent Eagles, Jones hasn’t topped 17.4 fantasy points all year, so there’s no ceiling, and he has finished with 13.8 or less fantasy points in eight games, so there’s no floor, either. The worst offense in the league? No, but close. They’re averaging just 1.12 PPR points per offensive snap as a team, which is behind only the Jets. Meanwhile, the Ravens defense has allowed just 1.36 PPR points per offensive play, which ranks as the 10th-lowest number in the league. It’s been worse through the air against them than it has on the ground, too. They’ve allowed just 6.53 yards per attempt (3rd-lowest mark in NFL) and have allowed a touchdown on just 3.76 percent of pass attempts (5th-lowest). The only reason they’ve allowed the 18th-most fantasy points to the position is due to volume, as they’ve faced a massive 38.0 pass attempts per game. Meanwhile, Jones hasn’t thrown more than 41 pass attempts in a game all year. We know his mobility will be limited if he goes, right? Well, based on passing alone, the Ravens allow the second-fewest fantasy points per actual pass attempt. Don’t consider playing Jones or McCoy.

Lamar Jackson: We did a bold prediction article before the fantasy playoffs began and my prediction was that Jackson would be the No. 1 quarterback from Weeks 14-16 and deliver the performances that fantasy managers thought they were drafting at the start of the year. His fantasy points over the last three weeks? 25.7, 34.9, and 29.2. He’s now completed 70-plus percent of passes in four of his last six games, and he’s running as much as ever, finishing 253 yards and four touchdowns on the ground in the last three games, and that’s despite getting pulled against the Jaguars in a blowout. Can he continue the hot streak in Week 16? Not many realize the Giants have been a tough matchup for quarterbacks, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game (16.16) to them. The 7.38 yards per attempt they’ve allowed is slightly above the league average, though they’re one of just six teams who’ve held opponents to a touchdown percentage below 4.0 percent. The 68.2 percent completion-rate they’ve allowed sits as the ninth-highest mark, but hey, let’s not pretend that passing is what’s going to get Jackson loads of fantasy points. In the end, the Giants are an average matchup through the air. On the ground, they’ve been much better than average, holding quarterbacks to the second-lowest yards per carry (2.70) and the fifth-lowest rushing yards (165) on the year. That’s scary but we need to look at the competition. There are just two mobile quarterbacks they’ve played under Joe Judge, and those quarterbacks (Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson) both rushed for at least 45 yards, so it’s more to do with how the schedule has shaken out, and it’s important to mention that Murray was still a bit tentative with his shoulder injury. This matchup is tougher than most think, but with the way Jackson’s playing (like he did last year), matchups shouldn’t matter all that much. He should be in lineups as a QB1.

RBs
Wayne Gallman: It’s so disappointing to see Gallman disrespected by his own team, as we’ve continually watched his snap count go down the tube, as he played just 42.6 percent of the snaps in Week 15 while Dion Lewis played 33.3, Alfred Morris 24.1, and Elijah Penny 14.8. On top of that, Devonta Freeman was activated off the injured reserve list, so he might return. What a mess. What Gallman has been able to accomplish this year is nothing short of amazing, as he’s not only overcome a bad offense, but he’s also overcome the opponents stacking the box 40.0 percent of the time against him, which is more than any other running back with 100-plus carries. He’s averaged 0.68 more yards per carry than he’s been expected to, according to NFL’s NextGenStats. But again, none of that matters when the Giants have given him 12 and 9 carries the last two week with no scoring opportunities. It’s unlikely there’ll be many of those opportunities in general for the Giants offense this week as they travel to Baltimore to play a Ravens team that’s allowed a rushing touchdown once every 41.6 carries, which is the fourth-largest number in the league. They’ve allowed what is essentially the league average with 4.27 yards per carry, but they’ve faced just 20.8 carries per game, and have tightened up when it really matters (around the goal line). Because of that, they’ve allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs. Meanwhile, teams have had success targeting their running backs, scoring the ninth-most fantasy points through the air against them, but Gallman has exactly zero targets in two of his last three games, which makes it difficult to trust much of a role there for him. He hasn’t topped 20 receiving yards all year. It’s a shame the Giants aren’t using Gallman the way he’s capable because there have been 14 running backs who’ve finished as top-24 options against the Ravens this year, though 10 of them did accumulate at least three receptions. Three of those who didn’t rushed for 100-plus yards, something we can’t expect out of someone who played just 42.6 percent of the snaps last week. Gallman has fallen into RB3 territory and is no longer a must-start.

JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards: Between Dobbins and Edwards, they’ve rushed for 1,146 yards this year. However, if we were to look at NFL’s NextGenStats and see that based on the number of defenders in the box they’ve faced, yards before contact they’ve had, and everything else, they really should’ve had just 939 yards. Both running backs rank top-12 in rushing yards over expected. It surely helps to have Lamar Jackson essentially remove a defender from the equation because defenses have to account for him. It also helps that the Ravens made Mark Ingram a healthy scratch last week. Over the last two games without Ingram playing, Dobbins has racked up 28 opportunities while Edwards has 19 of them. Those aren’t massive numbers of a workhorse, but when you’re running as efficient as they are, those might be enough. Dobbins has now scored in four straight games. The Giants have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs, which seems great, right? Well, not exactly with the way the Ravens running backs. The Giants have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game on the ground to running backs, which is where 95 percent of their production comes from. We saw a similar backfield to this one last week when the Browns played against them. Nick Chubb finished with just 50 yards on 15 carries, though he did score to salvage his fantasy day, while Kareem Hunt totaled just 21 scoreless yards on seven carries. There have been just five running backs who’ve topped 65 rushing yards against them, and each of those running backs totaled at least 15 carries, a number Dobbins has reached just twice, while Edwards has once. The Giants have allowed tons of production through the air to running backs, as the 12.5 PPR points per game through the air alone ranks as the third-most in the league.  There have been eight running backs who’ve totaled 35-plus receiving yards against them, but we haven’t seen Dobbins targeted nearly enough to factor that into his projection (hasn’t caught more than two passes since Week 5 and has just one catch in the last three games combined). Dobbins is running well enough to warrant an RB2 start, though it would be really nice if the Ravens can involve him in the passing game a bit more. Edwards hasn’t topped nine carries in each of his last six games, so this game clearly doesn’t draw much appeal to his role on the team, though he does seem to have the goal-line role, as he’s seen 47.1 percent of their carries inside the five-yard line. Because of that, he stays in the high-end RB4 conversation.

WRs
Sterling Shepard: We talk all the time about players who will never win you a championship. Well, here we are, in the fantasy championship. Shepard might have played a role through bye weeks, but we can’t pretend that a receiver who’s finished in-between 22-74 yards in every game and hasn’t scored since Week 7 is going to get you excited to play in Week 16. Shepard has still seen at least five targets in every full game he’s played, and he’s going to need them this week. The 1.59 PPR points per target the Ravens have allowed to wide receivers ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. It’s a lack of both yards (7.31 YPT) and touchdowns (one every 30.1 targets). Shepard lines up all over the field, so he’s not going to see one cornerback more than the others, but truth be told, there’s not really a plus matchup on the field. Every one of Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith, and Marlon Humphrey have all allowed 1.16 or less yards per snap in their coverage and have allowed a sub-100 QB Rating. You do have to factor in targets when considering Shepard because the Ravens haven’t allowed to score more than 8.3 PPR points without seeing at least five targets, but still, we know he has an extremely limited ceiling. He’s just a low-upside WR4/5 option for this week.

Darius Slayton: His targets are so inconsistent that you cannot ever feel comfortable putting him into your lineup. Here are his target totals dating back to Week 7: 4-9-1-7-2-1-8-9. The 17 targets over the last two weeks seem like a good thing, but based on what we’ve seen, he could have one target in this game, and no one would be surprised. If that reason isn’t good enough to avoid him, he has the toughest matchup on the field while playing most of his snaps at LWR, which is where Jimmy Smith is at. Smith has arguably been the best cornerback in the league this year, allowing a league-low 0.37 yards per snap in his coverage. On 29 targets in coverage, he’s allowed just 16 receptions for 117 scoreless yards. When healthy, there aren’t many cornerbacks who are more worrisome for a wide receivers production. There’s always a chance Slayton goes over to Marcus Peters‘ side and gets behind him in coverage, but you shouldn’t be risking it right now. *Update* Smith has been ruled out, upgrading Slayton’s matchup a bit, though they’re just going to slide Marlon Humphrey into his spot, which is another great cornerbacks. 

Marquise Brown: Despite being away from the team due to a close contact situation, Brown returned and saw a team-high seven targets against the Jaguars. He turned them into 6/98/0, making it the fourth week in a row where he’s finished with 13-plus PPR points and as a top-36 wide receiver. We know he’s getting targeted well (29 targets over the last four games), but he also ranks second in the NFL with 40.5 percent of his team’s air yards. The Giants were without star cornerback James Bradberry last week and it led to the Browns receivers having a blast, totaling 14/192/1 on 16 targets. Bradberry was voted to the Pro Bowl, and rightfully so, as he’s allowed just 35-of-63 passing for 358 yards and one touchdown in his coverage over the last 12 games, and most of that was while shadowing No. 1 wide receivers. Football Outsiders has them ranked as the 10th-toughest matchup for No. 1 receivers in their DVOA metric. Brown doesn’t go in the slot very much, which means he won’t evade Bradberry’s coverage all that often. It’s no surprise that five of the top nine wide receiver performances the Giants have allowed were to slot-heavy receivers. Rather than the WR3 he’s been the last four weeks, Brown should be nudged down into high-end WR4 territory, as he comes with risk here.

TEs
Evan Engram: The quarterback issues have certainly affected Engram, who’s now finished with 32 or less yards in three of his last five games, and I think it’s fair to say his managers would take a four-catch, 46-yard performance against the Browns considering he was questionable for that game with a calf injury that popped up mid-week. We’re now at the point where we need to actually look at the matchups rather than just set-it-and-forget-it with him. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the league at defending wide receivers, though tight ends have fared much better against them. We’ve watched seven tight ends finish with 10.3 or more PPR points against them, so it’s not a must-avoid matchup or anything. Based on the competition they’ve played, tight ends have averaged 1.6 percent more PPR points against them than they have in non-Ravens matchups, making it the 13th-best schedule-adjusted matchup for the position. The only tight end who’s seen more than four targets and failed to finish outside the top-14 tight ends was Zach Ertz when he totaled four catches for 33 yards on 10 targets back in Week 6. He’s in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 range, though I’d feel a bit better about him if Daniel Jones were under center.

Mark Andrews: It’s always good to see things happen as they’re supposed to, like when Andrews catches all five of his targets for 66 yards and a touchdown against the weak Jaguars secondary. He’s now finished as the TE11 or better in four straight games, including three top-five finishes. With Lamar Jackson throwing the ball better than he has all year, Andrews is turning into the league-winner you thought you were drafting. Will his hot streak continue against the Giants this week? A league-high 22.4 percent of the pass attempts against the Giants have gone to running backs. “Uhh, Mike, this is a tight end we’re talking about.” Yep, but the targets between running backs and tight ends correlate more than any other position, so if we know the Ravens don’t target their running backs much, it’s natural to think that some of those targets funnel to the tight ends on the Ravens. While the Giants have allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, they’re not as great as that number says. They’re allowing a 70.5 percent completion-rate and 7.58 yards per target, which are both over the league average. It has more to do with volume, as running backs have soaked up a lot of the targets. When you look at their competition, tight ends have averaged 0.02 more PPR points per target against the Giants than they have in their non-Giants games, making this the 15th-best matchup on a schedule-adjusted per-target basis. Basically, you don’t want to downgrade your tight end against them unless you’re projecting them for fewer targets than they normally get. You’re starting Andrews and expecting his normal production, which is in the TE1 territory.

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Spread: Browns -9.5
Total: 46.5

Browns at Jets Betting Matchup

QBs
Baker Mayfield: There have now been five games that Mayfield has played without Odell Beckham that didn’t involve 40-plus MPH winds and massive rainfall. His finishes in those four games were QB6, QB12, QB4, QB2, and QB12. Look, this isn’t me saying he’s better without Beckham, but rather he may not be trying to force the ball anywhere. Now you get a red-hot Mayfield against the Jets, a defense that’s allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game (103.1) to their opponents. While the Falcons are the only team in the league who allows more fantasy points to quarterbacks than running backs, the Jets are extremely close, allowing running backs just 0.88 more PPR points per game. This is known as a funnel defense. It’s also good to know their opponents run a massive 67.4 plays per game, as we know the Browns are one of the highest run-percentage teams. Despite Jared Goff‘s lackluster performance last week, the Jets are still allowing the third-most fantasy points per game (21.8) to the quarterback position. The 30 passing scores they’ve allowed ranks second to only the Jaguars. We know Mayfield isn’t someone to rely on for production on the ground, so when you see that the Jets have allowed the second-most fantasy points through the air alone to quarterbacks, it carries weight with him. They’ve allowed a league-high 70.6 percent completion-rate, so even if Mayfield doesn’t rack up tons of pass attempts, they should count when he does. Here are the last seven quarterback finishes against the Jets (most recent first): QB23 (ugh, Goff), QB8, QB1, QB6, QB2, QB8, and QB1. Mayfield can be started as a low-end QB1 this week who’s been on fire.

Sam Darnold: Is there anyone happier than Darnold after last week’s win? The Jets losing out on Trevor Lawrence might force them to keep him around a bit longer, though that’ll be up to the new coach (once they eventually fire Adam Gase). Darnold has not been someone to consider in fantasy football this year, as he has just two games with more than 14.1 fantasy points, and he needed rushing production to get there in both of them. He’s yet to throw for more than 230 yards in a game since Week 14 of last year, and he’s thrown more than one touchdown just once all season. The Browns are not a bad matchup for quarterbacks, but they have held seven different quarterbacks to less than 15 fantasy points, so it’s not a can’t-miss spot, either. I could talk about this further, but if you’re in the fantasy championship, then you’re not contemplating starting Darnold.

RBs
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: Despite seeing eight-plus defenders in the box 34.7 percent of the time (eighth-most in the NFL), Chubb has overcome that, ripping off 5.87 yards per carry. When you factor in the defenders in the box, his yards before contact, and how close defenders have been to him, Chubb has averaged 1.71 yards over expected… per carry. There’s no other running back in the NFL who has a mark higher than 1.13 yards over expected. Based on what NextGenStats tells us, Chubb has totaled 276 yards over expectations, which is second behind only Derrick Henry. Chubb is coming off his lowest rushing output of the season (not counting the game he left injured), where he finished with just 50 yards on 15 carries against the Giants, though he did find the end zone, making it 8-of-9 games where he’s finished as a top-22 running back, including six top-10 performances. Not bad for a guy who’s barely involved in the passing game. I’ve continually tried to remind everyone that the Jets are an above-average run defense, and that shows when you see that running backs have accounted for just 28.0 percent of the production they’ve allowed to skill-position players, which is the fifth-lowest mark in football. I mentioned it last week with Cam Akers, but it needs to be repeated. The Jets are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to limiting running backs’ efficiency. The only teams who’ve allowed fewer fantasy points per weighted opportunity than them are the Saints, Steelers, and Rams. Volume is what carries most running backs to their fantasy totals against them. They’ve faced a massive 28.6 running back touches per game, and they haven’t played the Browns yet, who average 31.0 running back touches per game. You can be inefficient and still be productive in a matchup with that many touches available, though we know Chubb is extremely efficient. In the end, running backs have averaged 0.3 fewer PPR points per game against the Jets than they have in non-Jets games, so the volume doesn’t make you move your players too much. Chubb should still be played as a low-end RB1 this week. Hunt is a bit more difficult to project, as he’s only received 13 carries over the last two games combined. Did you know Hunt hasn’t finished better than the RB29 in four of the last five games? Naturally, there’d be an RB4 finish in-between, which lures us back in, but in the end, what’s the most likely? The Jets have only allowed 10 running backs to finish as top-24 options through 14 games, so Hunt probably belongs in the high-end RB3 conversation rather than the must-play top-24 option. *Update* It does help the Browns running backs to know that interior lineman Quinnen Williams was placed on IR, and he’s the Jets best run-stopping lineman. 

Frank Gore and Ty Johnson: This might be the last time Gore is mentioned in The Primer, unless, of course, Adam Gase gets another job. He gave Gore the brunt of the work last week, as he finished with a season-high 24 touches against the Rams, and though they only netted 65 total yards, he did find the end zone for the second time this year. Gore played 40 snaps while Johnson played 22 snaps. It’s possible that Lamical Perine returns to the lineup this week, which further cloudies everything, but are you really considering any of them? Of the production the Browns have allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for just 28.0 percent of it, which is tied with the Jets themselves for the fifth-lowest percentage in football. Even if you play into the narrative that the Jets will fall behind in this contest, running backs have accounted for a league-low 14.4 percent of targets against the Browns. Because of that, running backs have averaged the second-least amount of weighted opportunity against the Browns. That’s led to them allowing the seventh-fewest points per game to them. When you have a timeshare and try to split up 24.4 touches per game (what the Browns have allowed to running backs), it gets ugly. Unless you project a positive gamescript, Gore shouldn’t receive more than 10-15 carries, making him a lackluster RB4 who won’t play nearly as much in a negative gamescript. Johnson runs more routes than Gore, but last week was just the second time he’s seen more than two targets in a game, so it’s not like there’s any consistency in his projection. When you add in the potential return of Perine, Johnson is someone who’s best left on waiver wires.

WRs
Jarvis Landry:
Editor’s Note: Landry is on the COVID-19 List and will miss week 16
He’s stepped up at the right time, now finishing as a top-15 wide receiver in three of the last four games. He’s the go-to option for Mayfield, as he’s seen 38 targets over the last four weeks, which is a 27 percent target share. He’s the WR10 in fantasy during that time. Now you add in a matchup with the Jets? They’ve allowed a massive 71.0 percent completion-rate to wide receivers, a mark that’s only gone up as the year’s gone on, as they’ve dealt with injuries and cuts in the secondary. They’ve been starting undrafted rookie Javelin Guidry in the slot over the last few weeks, who’s allowed 12-of-15 passing for 111 yards, though no touchdown yet. Cooper Kupp and Tyler Lockett were targeted just 10 times combined the last two weeks, and none of those balls hit the ground. Maybe they should’ve been targeted more? That hasn’t been a problem with Landry, who should be started as a WR2 with the way he’s been rolling.

Rashard Higgins:
Editor’s Note: Higgins is on the COVID-19 List and will miss week 16
There have been just four non-heavy wind/rain games where Higgins has played without Odell Beckham this year. His performances in those games? 6/110/0, 1/15/0, 6/95/1, 6/68/1, and 4/76/0. While that 15-yard performance stands out like a sore thumb, Higgins has been phenomenal over the last month. He’s a perimeter-based receiver who will see the combination of rookie Bryce Hall and last year’s sixth-round pick Blessuan Austin in coverage. Those two have combined to allow 63-of-89 passing for 584 yards and five touchdowns in their coverage, which isn’t horrible. Still, as a whole, the Jets have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to wide receivers, and it was DeVante Parker, Henry Ruggs, D.K. Metcalf, and Robert Woods who posted the most production against them over the last four weeks, all perimeter-heavy options. With Baker Mayfield playing as well as he is, and knowing the Jets are an above-average run defense, Higgins should be able to be considered as a back-end WR3/high-end WR4 this week.

Jamison Crowder: It seems Crowder is getting back to his old ways, as he’s now seen seven-plus targets in two of the last three games, with the one exception being the Seahawks game where he was playing though an injury. Despite a tough matchup against the Rams last week, he was able to tally six receptions for 66 yards, which is certainly usable for those who are looking for a streamer. The Browns have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and that’s despite them playing in three games with crazy-high winds and/or rain, which certainly brought the totals down. There have been six different slot receivers who’ve finished with 10-plus PPR points against them, including four who finished with 16-plus PPR points and as top-24 options, but there is some red tape to get through. The Browns were without cornerback Kevin Johnson in three of those games (Weeks 1, 2, and 4), and have been much better with him in the lineup. Crowder can probably be used as a WR4 with a decent floor but if he doesn’t score, he’s likely not posting top-36 numbers.

Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims: We haven’t seen Perriman top three receptions or 26 yards over the last three games, while Mims has failed to record more than three catches or 40 yards in each of his last two games. Sure, the matchup against the Rams was bad, but there’s no way you can play either of these receivers with Darnold under center. At least there were deep shots with Joe Flacco under center, as they had one-play upside, but that hasn’t been the case with Darnold who has thrown the ball deep on just 9.7 percent of attempts (Flacco was at 19.4 percent). The Browns secondary has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, but they’ve allowed just the 13th-fewest points per target to them, so volume has certainly played a role. You shouldn’t be aiming to play either of these receivers as anything more than a WR5 who both come with a very low floor.

TEs
Austin Hooper: It was very good to see Hooper targeted six times last week, as it would’ve been rough trusting him in Week 16 if he’d seen the two targets he had the previous two weeks. He caught five of them for 41 yards and a touchdown, so though he’s failed to top 41 yards since the return from his appendectomy, he has scored in two of the last three games. We have to find the positive signs in his performances because the matchup doesn’t get any better than his in Week 16. We know Baker Mayfield is on fire, right? Well, of the production the Jets have allowed to skill-position players (it’s a lot), tight ends have accounted for 21.7 percent of it, which is the second-highest number in the league. That’s led to a league-leading 17.7 PPR points per game to the tight end position, a full 1.7 points per game more than any other team. They’re allowing a ridiculous 8.88 yards per target (league-high), as well as a touchdown every 8.1 targets to them, which amounts to a historically-bad 2.35 PPR points per target to the position. Remember the Cardinals last year? Seemed like the worst defense ever against the position, right? Well, they allowed 2.32 PPR points per target, so the Jets are even worse. Even when you look at the competition they’ve played and break it down by targets, the Jets have allowed 0.45 more PPR points per target than what their opponents have averaged in non-Jets matchups, which is more than any other team in the league. The lack of consistent targets keeps him out of the elite TE1 territory, but Hooper can be played as a mid-to-low-end TE1.

Chris Herndon: He has more games with fewer than 2.5 PPR points (nine) than he does games with 2.5 or more PPR points (five) this year. Sure, he saw four targets last week, but he’d seen one target the previous three weeks combined. You’re not playing him.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -3.5
Total: 48.5

Broncos at Chargers Betting Matchup

QBs
Drew Lock: The Bills defense proved to be too much for Lock to handle last week, as he finished the game with just 132 yards on 32 pass attempts for an embarrassing 4.1 yards per attempt. Lock has not thrown the ball with any rhythm, as he continually waits to see his receivers open, and by the time the ball gets there, they’re not open anymore. Lock has averaged just 6.55 yards per attempt over his short career, which doesn’t bode well for his matchup this week. There have been just three quarterbacks all season who’ve averaged more than 7.17 yards per attempt against the Chargers, and none of them averaged more than 8.39 yards per attempt. A lot of the production against them has been on the ground, as they’ve allowed a league-leading 74.2 fantasy points via rushing to quarterbacks. Sure, they’ve allowed 20.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, which ranks in the top-10, but when you look at strictly passing, they’ve allowed just 15.5 fantasy points per game, which would be a bottom-10 matchup. If there’s one bit of hope for Lock, it’s that the Chargers have struggled to generate much pressure over the last three weeks, though they still rank top-10 in average pressure rate. As we’ve discussed in previous weeks, Lock struggles mightily under pressure, posting just a 25.0 QB Rating under those circumstances, which is the worst in the league. For a guy who’s topped 13.1 fantasy points in just 3-of-11 games this year, you need clear reasons to start him. You don’t have them here.

Justin Herbert: He didn’t have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for 66 percent of the game but that didn’t matter to Herbert against the Raiders, as he carved them up for 314 yards and two touchdowns, while adding a rushing touchdown for the game-winner. He looked comfortable and continually took shots down the field, which is something he was doing for much of this season, though it had died down a bit since Ekeler’s return. His average pass traveled 10.9 yards in the air, which more than doubled his 5.3-yard average in Week 14 (his average was just 6.3 yards in Week 13). It appeared he got his confidence back, which makes us feel better about his Week 16 matchup with the Broncos. You might look and see they’ve allowed just a 3.65 percent touchdown-rate (3rd-lowest) but that doesn’t tell you the whole story about the matchup they are today. They’ve lost four of their top-five cornerbacks to injury, leaving them to start backups to backups. Over the last two weeks with those injuries, they’ve allowed Teddy Bridgewater and Josh Allen to combine for 58-of-80 passing for 642 yards and two touchdowns through the air, which amounts to 8.03 yards per attempt, which is much better than the 6.74 yards per attempt they were allowing before the injuries. They both finished as top-10 quarterbacks. They’ve also allowed the third-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, including a league-leading eight rushing touchdowns to them. That all amounts to a league-leading 83.1 fantasy points on the ground alone against them, an added bonus to Herbert, who has flashed some rushing upside with 199 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Herbert should be considered a solid QB1 this week. *Update* With all the injuries/COVID-related things going on with his receiving corps, he takes a slight dip in projection to the low-end QB1 range. 

RBs
Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay: The timeshare continued in Week 15, though Gordon continued to make the most of his opportunity, scoring twice against the Bills. Gordon has continually outplayed Lindsay over the last month, totaling 291 yards on 51 carries (5.71 YPC) compared to Lindsay’s 108 yards on 45 carries (2.4 YPC). Here are the touch splits between these two in games they’re both active.

It’s clear they’re trying to limit the number of touches Gordon has. The Chargers are a team to attack on the ground, as they’ve allowed a healthy 4.64 yards per carry this year, which is the sixth-highest mark in the league. We just watched Josh Jacobs bust out of a slump against them, totaling 114 yards and a touchdown. They haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since back in Week 7, but they have allowed eight running backs to accumulate 60-plus rushing yards in the eight games since then. The issue between Gordon and Lindsay always comes back to the volume, and the Chargers opponents average 21. 1 running back carries per game. That’s a low number, so when you combine it with a team that averages just 23.0 carries per game, it’s a problem. If there’s a plus for Gordon, it’s that running backs facing the Chargers have seen a 22.3 percent target share against them, which is the second-highest mark in the league. He’s caught four times the number of passes that Lindsay has on the season, so that’s primarily his role. There have been nine running backs who’ve finished as top-14 running backs against the Chargers, but eight of them totaled 15-plus touches, which is hardly a number that Gordon is guaranteed, though he has gotten there in each of his last three games. Gordon can be played as an RB2 despite the timeshare, as he’s playing extremely efficient as of late. Lindsay had his best game of the year against Chargers, totaling 83 yards and a touchdown on just six carries in the first meeting, though he’s been playing so poorly as of late, you have to assume the injuries have taken their toll and are affecting his play. Because of that, he can’t be played as anything more than an RB4. *Update* Lindsay has been ruled OUT for this week’s game, giving Gordon a massive bump into borderline RB1 territory. 

Austin Ekeler and Kalen Ballage: We heard before the Week 15 game that Ekeler could be a bit limited, though the last time we heard that was Week 12 when he totaled 25 touches in his return to the lineup. As it turned out, he did split a lot of the reps with Ballage, who also received the goal-line work and scored the only running back touchdown in that game. Meanwhile, Ekeler finished with a mediocre 79 total yards against a weak Raiders run defense. The good news is that he’ll have a full 10 days to heal up for the Week 16 contest against the Broncos. This Broncos team started the year strong against the run but have struggled as the year’s gone on. Through their first five games, they allowed just 3.70 yards per carry and one touchdown to running backs. In the nine games since, they’ve allowed 4.96 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns to them, including 165 total yards and a touchdown to the Bills running backs last week. If there’s one downside, it’s that the Broncos allow just 4.84 yards and 1.30 PPR points per target to running backs, which are both bottom-eight marks. Still, we’ve seen three running backs (Mike Davis, James White, Justin Jackson) post 42-plus receiving yards against them. This matchup is one you’re looking forward to as a fantasy manager, as we’ve seen 13 different running backs finish as top-20 options against the Broncos, including eight who finished top-12. Ekeler should remain in lineups as a stable RB1. If you’re desperate, Ballage might offer RB4 value as someone who’s totaled 26 touches over the last three games, and one who might still see the bulk of the goal-line carries.

WRs
Tim Patrick: We always knew Patrick was a risk with Lock under center, though he’d been able to overcome that for much of the year. His four targets netted just three catches for 14 yards against the Bills, who have been playing better as a whole. Touchdowns have masked some problems that Patrick has, as he’s now finished with fewer than 45 yards in six of the last eight games, including each of the last four games. The last time the Broncos met the Chargers, Patrick was inactive, so we don’t have a sample to look at. What we do know is that the perimeter duo of Casey Hayward and Michael Davis has been pretty good this year, allowing 80-of-145 passing for 1,172 yards and seven touchdowns in their coverage. That amounts to 8.08 yards per target and a touchdown every 20.7 targets. That’s solid, though not dominant to the point where you need to downgrade receivers too much. The big issue is that wide receivers have seen just a 53.0 percent target share against the Chargers, which ranks as the second-lowest number in the league. With Lock struggling, there’s no way to trust Patrick as anything more than a touchdown-dependent WR4.

Jerry Jeudy: You’d have to go all the way back to Week 10 to find the last time Jeudy finished with more than three catches or 42 yards. That’s… not great. Coming into Week 15, Jeudy had seen a massive 1,203 air yards on the year, which ranked behind only Calvin Ridley, Tyreek Hill, D.K. Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, and Allen Robinson. That’s it. It doesn’t really matter when Lock is playing as poorly as he’s been. As mentioned in the Tim Patrick notes, Jeudy will see a combination of Casey Hayward and Michael Davis in coverage, a duo that has been above average in coverage. Their weaknesses might suit Jeudy’s strengths, though. They’ve combined to allow 14.65 yards per reception, which is massive. Jeudy leads the team with a 14.0-yard average depth of target. He saw 10 targets the last time these two teams met, which amounted to four catches for 73 yards, so the big plays were on full display. Patrick was out for that game, which led to more targets for Jeudy. He should be considered an extremely risky WR4/5 option for this game where you’ll be left rooting for that big play.

KJ Hamler: When you can’t play Patrick or Jeudy with any confidence, Hamler is going to be difficult to trust. Outside of those two big catches against the Panthers in Week 15, Hamler has failed to do much. He’s finished with 35 yards or less in four of his last five games, and it’s not like Lock throws enough touchdowns to give him a bump there. If there’s any positive news, it’s that Chris Harris might still be trying to play through the injury he suffered earlier this year, or he might be just on the downward trend of his career, allowing 19-of-28 passing for 305 yards and four touchdowns in his coverage. Still, the Chargers have allowed the sixth-fewest points per game to wide receivers, so there’s no chance you can play Hamler with any semblance of confidence.

Keenan Allen: He played just 24-of-66 snaps against the Raiders after fantasy managers agonized over whether to start him. There were reports that he’d be on a snap count, though that didn’t appear to be what actually happened. He was on the field to start the game but then slowly faded away. If he was okay, he would’ve been out there for the team’s final drive in overtime, but he wasn’t. The good news is that he has 10 full days to rest up, but for a team that’s out of the playoff race, they could choose to save him from himself. Unless we see him practice in full, it’ll be hard to fully trust him. He did not practice on Tuesday, which is obviously not a good sign. If he does play, he’ll have a phenomenal matchup with the Broncos secondary that’s been demolished with injuries of their own. They’ve been forced to move safety Will Parks into the slot, while rookie Michael Ojemudia and De’Vante Bausby defend the perimeter. This trio has allowed 30-of-41 passing for 400 yards and a touchdown in their coverage over the last two weeks (since they all started). This all comes down to Allen’s health, so come back on Saturday morning to check for updates (I’ll post them right here). *Update* Allen did not practice at all on Wednesday and Thursday, but got in a limited session on Friday. They’re calling him a game-time decision, adding that risk to him once again. For now, consider him as a risky low-end WR2 if active.

Mike Williams: Surprisingly, Williams played four more snaps than Keenan Allen, though we can’t pretend like 28-of-66 snaps or two catches for 22 yards did anyone any good. His injury is a bit more touch-and-go than Allen’s, as back injuries can completely go away after a day, but then reemerge a few days later. We’ll have to pay attention to his practice schedule as the week goes on. The Broncos secondary has been decimated by injuries, leaving rookie Michael Ojemudia and De’Vante Bausby to defend the perimeter, which is where Williams plays. Both cornerbacks have been forced to play at times throughout the year and have combined to allow 65-of-100 passing for 900 yards and six touchdowns in their coverage. They are both at least 6-foot-1, but they both also weigh fewer than 200 pounds. Williams should be able to use his 6-foot-4 and 220-pound frame to his advantage. Similar to Allen, this is more about their health than the matchup, as we know the matchup is great. The first time these two teams met (when they were healthy), Williams racked up five catches for 99 yards and a touchdown. If he practices in full at some point and plays, he deserves to be placed into the risk/reward WR3/4 territory, especially if Allen is not 100 percent. I’ll post updates here later in the week. *Update* Williams has been removed from the injury report all together, while Allen is still highly questionable. Williams should be in the WR3/4 converstion right now. If Allen sits, he would be a WR3.

Tyron Johnson and Jalen Guyton: The status of these two is entirely dependent on the status of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Sure, both Allen and Williams were active last week, and it didn’t seem to matter, but that’s because they both played fewer than 30 snaps. If you check out what was said in the Williams/Allen notes, you’ll see that this matchup against the Broncos is much better than it used to be, so pay no attention to the fact that the Broncos have allowed the 15th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. If Allen and/or Williams is out/limited, I’ll be coming back to update all these notes by Saturday morning, as there’s just too much uncertainty to accurately project their roles right now. *Update* With Williams being removed from the injury report all together, it takes away a lot of hope from Johnson, though Allen is still up in the air. It’s best to just find other options for your fantasy championship. 

TEs
Noah Fant: He was the only player who wasn’t affected by Lock’s poor play in Week 15, as he managed to turn his season-high 11 targets into eight receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown. The 68 yards were the most Fant has totaled since back in Week 1, though it’s important to note it was a great matchup against the Bills who’d been struggling with tight ends all season. Still, it’s important to take advantage of those matchups. There have been just seven tight ends who’ve seen more than three targets against the Chargers this year. Only one of those tight ends (Mike Gesicki – two catches, 40 yards) has finished outside of the top-18 tight ends, while five of them finished as top-eight options. Of the 12 full games Fant has played this year, he’s seen five-plus targets in 10 of them, so he should come with a solid floor here. The 7.46 yards per target the Chargers have allowed is right around the league average, though the touchdown every 9.3 targets is more often than all but two other teams (Jets, Jaguars). When you look at the competition they’ve played, the Chargers have allowed 0.29 more PPR points per target than what their opponents have averaged in non-Chargers matchups, making it the fourth-best matchup from an efficiency standpoint. Fant is the one Broncos pass-catcher I’d feel confident starting in this game.

Hunter Henry: With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing most of the game, we saw a slight bump for Henry in the target department, as he saw 21.9 percent target share from Herbert, which led to a rock-solid 5/65/1 performance. You might be surprised to hear this but that was Henry’s best game of the season. The 17.5 PPR points easily topped his previous season-high of just 14.8 PPR points. It was also just the third time all season he finished better than the TE10, though all three of those performances have come over the last six games, so he’s finally getting on the same page with Herbert. The Broncos are hurting at cornerback, so we’re seeing wide receivers get targeted a lot more against them, which is why they’ve allowed the ninth-fewest points per game to tight ends, but when they’re actually targeted, they’ve allowed a 71.7 percent completion-rate (7th) and 7.75 yards per target (9th). The one thing to note is that they’ve had some very good competition against them this year, as tight ends have averaged 0.07 fewer PPR points per target against them than they have in non-Broncos matchups, making it the 10th-toughest matchup from a schedule-adjusted efficiency standpoint. When you add in the lesser targets, tight ends have averaged 1.5 fewer PPR points per game against the Broncos than they have on the season. But this all comes back to Henry seeing at least six targets in 11-of-14 games this year, which is volume you cannot sit at tight end. He’s not someone you must play in DFS, but he remains a high-floor TE1 in redraft formats. *Update* Henry was placed on the COVID list this week and is out for this game. 

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