San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 56.5
Line: KC by 6.5
QBs
Jimmy Garoppolo: The lack of red zone options may come back and bite the 49ers, as Garoppolo appears to be able to move the ball down the field but has just nine touchdowns in seven starts with them. Oddsmakers don’t see a problem for him in Week 3, however, as the over/under on this game is set at 56.0, which might be the highest line you’ll see all year. The Chiefs defense looks every bit as bad as advertised, but they’ve also been a much better unit while at home and are expected to get Eric Berry back this week. We’ve always been told that Arrowhead is a tough place to play and it shows in the stats. Opponents have averaged 8.1 less points per game there in 2017, and 7.1 less in 2016. Again, their defense is a shell of what it used to be, but I’d expect them to play a bit better this week. Garoppolo should still be able to post solid totals en route to a borderline QB1 performance, but I just don’t think he has the weapons to throw four touchdowns. He’ll be a popular tournament lineup this week, but I’ll have little exposure.
Patrick Mahomes: What a start to the season for the sophomore, as he’s carved up both the Chargers and Steelers defenses for 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. Now he gets to go against a 49ers defense that just allowed Matthew Stafford to bounce-back for 347 yards and three touchdowns in San Francisco last week. The addition of Richard Sherman and subtraction of Eric Reed didn’t turn out to net a positive result through two weeks, but it’s still early in the year. The 49ers defense will get their star linebacker Rueben Foster back for this game, so that’ll definitely help, as they allowed 7.97 yards per attempt with him off the field last year, compared to 7.27 yards per attempt with him on the field. There’s going to be a week where Mahomes slows down, though I wouldn’t bank on this being the one with the over/under set at an astounding 56 points. Ride the lightning and play him as a QB1 this week.
RBs
Alfred Morris and Matt Breida: Through two weeks, it’s Morris who leads the snap count as he’s totaled 66 snaps to Breida’s 55 snaps. Production, however, is a different story. Morris has totaled just 86 yards on his 26 carries, while Breida has racked up 184 yards and a touchdown on his 22 carries. Sure, Breida’s 66-yard touchdown scamper made that look better, but he’s outplayed Morris to this point. Knowing that the 49ers are likely to fall behind in this game, Breida is the one I’d trust this week (and maybe going forward if he plays well). The Chiefs did a great job with James Conner last week, holding him to just 17 yards on nine carries, though he did add 48 yards through the air. Back in Week 1, they allowed Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to combine for 189 yards and a touchdown through the air. Seeing as Breida has the 3-to-1 ratio in targets, he’s the play. Consider Breida a decent RB3-type play, especially in PPR formats, while Morris is just a touchdown-dependent RB4.
Kareem Hunt: It hasn’t been a crazy start to the season for Hunt, but his time to score multiple touchdowns will come. The 49ers have yet to allow a touchdown to a running back this season and have held each of their opponents to 82 yards or less as a team of running backs on the ground. While the Lions don’t have much going on in their backfield right now, the Vikings duo of Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray was only able to muster up 82 yards on 27 carries. Their rookie linebacker Fred Warner has been good, and they’ll also get Rueben Foster back from his two-game suspension this week. Hunt only has two receptions through two games, but if Reid is game-planning, the 49ers have been susceptible in to pass-catching backs, allowing 21 receptions for 122 yards the last two weeks. He’s a big-time home-favorite, which is the recipe for success, so it’s reasonable to think he scores… maybe twice. He’s going to be ranked as an RB1, though the reliance on touchdowns may not be the greatest thing for cash lineups.
WRs
Pierre Garcon: The low-upside receiver was everything we thought he’d be in Week 2, totaling four catches for 57 yards against the Lions. It seems that Goodwin will be back for this game, though Garcon’s role as the possession receiver should be intact. The Chiefs starting cornerbacks are not what you’d call “good,” as all of them are replacement level talent. You likely know that from Roethlisberger’s stat sheet last week, but the worst part is that he had a terrible game passing-wise. Garcon will be used to move the sticks, but he’s now failed to score since Week 14 of 2016. He’s seen exactly 100 targets since that time with no touchdown. Still, there will be enough passing volume this week to get him some yardage. Consider him a WR3/4-type option who is better in PPR formats, and someone who might actually have a shot to score due to the lack of talent on defense.
Marquise Goodwin: It seems like the 49ers were shooting for this week to get Goodwin back into the lineup after he injured his quad in Week 1. There’s always risk playing someone who’s returning from injury, though this matchup makes you feel a bit better about it. The Chiefs cornerback who is supposed to match-up with Goodwin is Steven Nelson, who has been continuously burned throughout his career. He’s now seen 21 targets in coverage this year and allowed 13/150/1 on said targets. He’s also someone who runs close to a 4.5-second 40-yard dash, numbers that don’t stack up with Goodwin’s. Pay attention to the injury reports, but Goodwin should be a solid WR3 play with upside if on the field, though he does come with plenty of risk.
Dante Pettis: He disappointed in his first career start, though nobody knew Garoppolo would throw the ball just 26 times. He may be mixing up the snaps with Trent Taylor if Goodwin returns, but he’s a player they need to have on the field. This is very dependent on Goodwin’s status, because if Pettis is starting once again, he’s in play as a solid WR4 in this matchup. If Goodwin plays, I’m not opposed to throwing Pettis into lineups as a hail mary option, but he’d be more of a WR5.
Tyreek Hill: Cheat code “only” had five catches for 90 yards and a touchdown last week, though you won’t hear his owners complain. I’ve come full circle on Hill and admitted my underestimation of his skill-set, as it’s now two years in with multiple quarterbacks. The 49ers added Richard Sherman to their cornerback stable this offseason, and if you watched the video of Marquise Goodwin toasting him in the preseason, you have to wonder what Hill can do to him. Akhello Witherspoon is younger, but the 49ers just play sides of the field and don’t shadow, so Andy Reid can get whatever matchup he wants. I’m not worried about Hill in this matchup and you shouldn’t be either. He’s a WR1 in this game and one I’ll have exposure to in cash and tournament lineups. The 49ers simply don’t have an answer, though to be fair, not many teams do.
Sammy Watkins: Last week was more of what I expected from Watkins when he signed with the Chiefs, as he totaled 100 yards on seven targets and even added 31 yards on a carry. He didn’t score, so there’s definitely still room for more, but man, Watkins (who runs a 4.43 40-yard dash) looks slow in comparison to Hill. He’ll see a mix of every cornerback on the 49ers roster, as he’s been lining up all over the field, including 43 percent of his routes coming out of the slot, which would be a career-high. The ideal scenario is getting Hill mixed-up with Richard Sherman and then Watkins on Akhello Witherspoon, who has struggled mightily to start the season, allowing three touchdowns on just 15 targets in coverage. Watkins is going to be an upside WR3 option most weeks and there’s little reason to bench him in this game. He’s not a cash-game play, but he’s a solid contrarian play to Hill in tournaments.
TEs
George Kittle: Whew, what a letdown for Kittle in Week 2 after what looked to be an easy game to project. There was a 49ers tight end who did score, but it was Garrett Celek. But is it something you should worry about going forward? Not really, as the snap differential remained similar, but there were just limited pass attempts (26) in that particular game. I don’t think that’ll be the case on the road in Week 3, as the 49ers are six-point underdogs against a high-flying Chiefs offense. With a projected 40-plus pass attempts for Garoppolo, it’s fair to wonder if Kittle can get back to the nine targets he got in Week 1. The issue for him would be Eric Berry, who is slated to come back this week. He’s one of the best cover safeties in the game, but he’s also coming off a bad Achilles injury and may not be the same player. There’s reason for some optimism, but you now have to be guarded considering his two-target game in Week 2. Consider him a low-end TE1 who comes with some risk, meaning he’s not to be used in cash games.
Travis Kelce: It was nice to see Kelce and Mahomes get on the same page last week after a rough opener that had Kelce finishing with just six yards. The Steelers zone defense was absolutely no match for Kelce who played them like a fiddle all game. The 49ers also run zone coverage quite a bit, making Kelce an elite TE1, not that he always isn’t. The 49ers have allowed a tight end touchdown in each of their first two games and allowed eight touchdowns last year in the same system, so it’s hard not to like his chances of finding the end zone. The safety duo of Jaquiski Tartt and Adrian Colbert have allowed 10/96/2 on 11 targets in their coverage this year, which in Layman’s Terms is not good. There’s no reason to think Kelce busts this week. Play him wherever you can fit him in.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Total: 44.0
Line: MIA by 3.0
QBs
Derek Carr: Jekyll and Hyde – here we go again. It’s been this way for the last few years for Carr, so why would we expect anything different in Jon Gruden’s offense? He looked phenomenal against the Broncos while completing 29-of-32 passes for 281 yards and a touchdown last week, which might make you consider picking him up. Ehh, you can likely do better a majority of the time. The Dolphins have come out looking like a better defense without Ndamukong Suh? I know it sounds crazy and it’s very possible that it’s been the competition of the Titans and Jets that have allowed them to look better, but still. Just one touchdown compared to five interceptions thus far, and even if we go back to the last five games in 2017, they allowed four touchdowns while intercepting five passes. If you’re doing the math at home, the Dolphins have allowed just five passing touchdowns in their last seven games, while intercepting 10 passes. Because of that, limit your expectations for Carr while on the road to a low-end QB2.
Ryan Tannehill: After missing the entire 2017 season, Tannehill has come out looking sharp in his first two games, completing 72.5 percent of his passes with 7.8 yards per attempt while missing one of his top receivers. The Raiders cornerbacks played much better in Week 2 against the Broncos, though they’re still a young group that’s bound to make mistakes at times. The question is whether or not Tannehill and his group can find those mistakes. He’s likely to get Devante Parker back in the lineup opposite Kenny Stills, which should help, but it’s tough relying on Tannehill as anything more than a QB2, as he’s averaged just 25.5 attempts over the first two games. With it being a home game, look for them to get their run-game going early.
RBs
Marshawn Lynch: It was a tough matchup for Lynch last week and we knew that, so to see him walk away with 68 total yards and a touchdown was great. He’s clearly the top back while Doug Martin is there to give him breathers, though he’ll lose some snaps if they fall behind to the better receiving options. This week should be a closely contested game against a Dolphins front-seven who have yet to play a dominant offensive line like that of the Raiders. They’ve played against the Titans offensive line that missed multiple offensive tackles and then against the Jets who have a bottom-five unit. The Raiders are one of the best in the league and should be able to move through the Dolphins linebacker unit that has “essentially” two rookies in Jerome Baker and Raekwon McMillan. Lynch should be in lineups as an RB2 who doesn’t even need to score to provide value, though it would obviously help if he did. He’s cheap enough to consider in cash, though the fact that he’s going to come off the field if they fall behind is a problem.
Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: The carry split between the two is closer than it should be when you look at the snap counts. Drake has nearly double the snaps that Gore does, but he has just 25 carries to 18 for Gore. It really does help Gore’s cause that the Dolphins won both games, because he should get some work when they’re in the lead. They’re favored in this game, so it’s possible that Gore has another workload split with Drake, though Drake is the one who’s gamescript-proof. All three linebackers for the Raiders are new to the team/each other, making it likely that they aren’t operating as a complete unit just yet. It’s also likely why they’ve allowed 265 rushing yards through two weeks. The Dolphins lost Josh Sitton on the offensive line last week, so it’s an even more dire situation up front, though they’ve been able to post respectable numbers in two tough matchups thus far. Consider Drake a solid RB2 who has low bust potential, while Gore is just a boring RB4/5 option.
WRs
Amari Cooper: Remember my rant last week saying that Cooper needs more than three targets to do something, no matter how talented he is? Well, in a tough matchup against the Broncos, Cooper hauled-in each of his 10 targets for 116 yards, though Carr was on his game last week. He has run 36 percent of his snaps in the slot, which means he’ll see a mixture of all three Dolphins cornerbacks, including rookie Minkah Fitzpatrick. He’s played well in his first two games, but the zone coverage they played against the Jets last week allowed Quincy Enunwa seven catches for 92 yards, though it should have been more as Enunwa was wide open in the end zone, but just overthrown. If the coaches got in Carr’s ear about targeting Cooper, this can be a really good thing. I’m not ready to say that he’s an every-week high-end WR2 like he should be, but last week was promising. Consider him a WR2 this week, but one who is no sure thing.
Jordy Nelson: We’re now two weeks into the Nelson experiment with the Raiders and it’s not looking great, as he’s totaled just 53 yards on eight targets. The matchups have been tough, but Nelson hasn’t shown anything that indicates he’ll break out of the funk soon. In fact, Martavis Bryant produced more in his first game with the team in Week 2. If the alignment remains the same, he’ll see Bobby McCain in coverage the majority of time. He’s not their top cornerback, though he’s played well through two weeks this year, allowing just 5.21 yards per target in coverage. Even last year, he allowed just one touchdown in his coverage on 65 targets. This isn’t a week to play Nelson. In fact, he should have to prove it to you before putting him in any lineup. There’re likely better options on the waiver wire.
Devante Parker: He was close to playing last week, so I’m assuming he’ll play in Week 3. The question becomes – how to do the snaps get split up between him and Albert Wilson, who has totaled 68 yards and a touchdown in his absence. Parker may be eased back in, though I’m not positive considering he has no risk of re-injury to his broken finger. This will be the first time we see the decision-makers decide who gets what snaps, so approach with caution. He’ll see Rashaan Melvin the majority of time, which isn’t a great thing, as Melvin is their top cornerback. He had an impressive interception last week on Case Keenum and has already deflected two passes in coverage. It’s probably best to keep Parker on the bench and see how this plays out for next week.
Kenny Stills: You were warned that Stills isn’t going to be a top-30 wide receiver every week, as it’s just not his role with the team. He’s seen just eight targets with Parker sidelined, which essentially tells you that it doesn’t matter what role Parker has, and that the Dolphins are going to spread the ball around. Oddly enough, though, Stills is actually fourth among their wide receivers in targets, behind Jakeem Grant, Amendola, and Wilson. This makes little sense, though Stills has dropped a pass in each of the first two games. Stills will match-up with second-year cornerback Gareon Conley this week, and although I’ve had my questions, he handled Demaryius Thomas last week and held him to just five catches for 18 yards, though he didn’t shadow or anything. Conley has the athleticism to hang with Stills, but the Raiders safety duo of Marcus Gilchrist and Reggie Nelson is far from great. Stills should be played as usual, as a WR4 who is guaranteed nothing, but typically performs when he gets opportunities.
Danny Amendola/Albert Wilson: Amendola escaped a concussion last week after a big hit from Jamal Adams, which is great news considering his history. With Parker likely returning to the lineup, Wilson is likely the one to lose snaps, as Amendola is slot-only. The Raiders have had Leon Hall covering the slot thus far, a 33-year-old cornerback who’s gone from team-to-team the last few years. He’s had two tough matchups to start the year, too, as Cooper Kupp and Emmanuel Sanders should make Amendola seem like a cakewalk. Similar to Parker, it’s best to just wait and see how this plays out before trusting any of them.
TEs
Jared Cook: You can’t say I didn’t warn you, right? In reality, Cook’s 4/49/0 performance wasn’t that bad when you consider the landscape of the tight end position, though the matchup was a great one. The Dolphins have one of the better safety duos in the league, though they did allow the most points to the tight end position last year. A large part of that comes down to touchdowns, as they allowed 10 of them, but they also allowed a league-high 94 receptions to them last year. Through two weeks, they haven’t allowed a massive performance, but Delanie Walker left hurt in Week 1, then they played the Jets in Week 2. Cook should be considered a low-end TE1 this week, as the matchup is good and the tight end landscape is gross.
A.J. Derby/Mike Gesicki: So much for Gesicki being the Dolphins starter, eh? He’s trailing Derby in snaps 80-54, though the routes run is a bit closer at 26-17. It’s obvious that this is a timeshare, and one that has totaled just four targets through two weeks, moving them off the fantasy radar. Keep in mind that was without the big-bodied Devante Parker in the lineup, so they likely should’ve been used more. The Raiders have a lot of issues with their linebackers and safeties, so it wouldn’t shock me if there’s an odd touchdown here for one of these guys, but it’s not worth putting them into your lineup to find out. Continue to wait until we see a clear-cut leader in routes run.
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 48.0
Line: PHI by 6.5
QBs
Andrew Luck: It’ll be Frank Reich against his mentor Doug Pederson in this game, so you have to wonder who has the edge. Luck and the Colts shocked in Washington last week and will look to do the same in Philadelphia this week. There’s been no holding Luck back, as he’s now totaled 84 pass attempts through two weeks, which puts him on pace for 672 on the season. The lack of run-game success will do that and knowing the Eagles do so well against the run, it’s bound to happen this week. If Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn’t so efficient against them last week, he would’ve thrown more than 33 times. We saw Matt Ryan throw the ball 43 times in the opener, so 45-plus attempts for Luck isn’t out of the question. Jalen Mills is struggling, so expect the Colts to attack his side of the field with both Ryan Grant and T.Y. Hilton. This game is in Philadelphia when they’re coming off a bad loss, so the expectation would be that they bounce-back, though Luck should have enough volume to put him in the low-end QB1 conversation, though it hurts that his starting left tackle has been ruled out once again.
Carson Wentz: Do you think the Eagles would have Wentz starting this week if Nick Foles had been playing at least respectable? My guess is no. Wentz is returning to a team that’s likely without Alshon Jeffery, Mike Wallace, and Mack Hollins, who are three of the top four receivers on the team. That’s an issue most weeks, though the Colts cornerbacks aren’t what you’d describe as world-beaters. They’ve played much better than expected, though when covering Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson, this might happen. The Colts have allowed a 73 percent completion rate to Andy Dalton and Alex Smith, which means the windows are there for Wentz. Temper expectations with limited mobility and weapons, but Wentz should still be able to finish as a top-18 quarterback in this game.
RBs
Jordan Wilkins, and Nyheim Hines: This is not a backfield that is easy to predict at this time. After missing Week 1, Mack (who will miss the game) totaled 11 touches in Week 1, while Wilkins tallied 12 touches, and Hines finished with five. It’s looking more and more like Reich wants to model his running back rotation after Pederson’s. The Eagles are not a team you’re going to run the ball on, especially when you’re as weak as the Colts are up front to this point. The Eagles allowed just 59.3 rushing yards per game in 2017 and have allowed just 45.0 yards per game this year. That’s… not good for the projections of the running backs. Look for Hines to be utilized quite a bit in this game, as his 43 pass routes lead the backfield. Hines is likely the best play of the options and you don’t want to play him as anything more than a high-end RB4 in PPR formats.
Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement (questionable), and Darren Sproles: So, the Eagles wanted to give Ajayi a bigger workload… Ajayi gets banged-up twice in the game and that limits him to just 22 snaps in Week 2. They started by saying it’s nothing and that he’d be fine for Week 3, but then signed Josh Adams to the active roster which brought up questions about his availability. Ajayi missed practice on throughout the week and is now officially out for the game. Clement looked good in relief last week, but it’s important to note that even with Sproles out, the Eagles gave Wendell Smallwood 24 snaps. This is a mess to project every week, especially when Ajayi is injured. The Colts front-seven didn’t look so hot against Joe Mixon in Week 1, but bounced back and shut down Adrian Peterson in Week 2. Their rookie linebacker Darius Leonard has been phenomenal early-on and has shown the ability to play in the league. The Colts have struggled with running backs in the passing game, as they’ve now allowed 22 receptions for 187 yards to them. With both Sproles and Ajayi out, consider Clement a low-end RB2 if he’s able to suit up (note: he’s questionable with a quad injury). If you’re looking for a deep bottom-of-the-barrel play at running back, Josh Adams might be the one who gets the goal-line work for them.
WRs
T.Y. Hilton: The Colts took advantage of the matchups last week and got the ball to Hilton against the inexperienced corners. He’s still Luck’s favorite target despite the change in offense, as Hilton now has 22 targets, more than double any of the other wide receivers. The Eagles play sides on defense, so the Colts can choose their matchups here, so I’m guessing we see Hilton line up at RWR against Jalen Mills more often than normal. Mills is one of the slower cornerbacks in the game and he’s struggled over the first two weeks, allowing 11 catches for 156 yards and a touchdown on just 12 targets. There’s just one cornerback in the league who’s seen more than 10 targets and has allowed a higher QB Rating in coverage. Consider Hilton a high-end WR2 this week, though it would have been nicer if the game was on the track in Indianapolis, as he’s been better there throughout his career.
Ryan Grant: After a solid Week 1, Grant came back down to earth in Week 2, though the volume wasn’t as high as we thought it’d be against Washington. That won’t be the case against the Eagles, who will shut down the Colts run-game, forcing them to go to the air. Grant has played most of his snaps at RWR, which is where Jalen Mills will be, though I think Hilton should be moved there a bit more often this week to expose that matchup. That would mean Grant will see more of Ronald Darby, who can handle him. It’s possible that Grant is still able to produce on the snaps he gets against Mills, but it’s a little less likely than Hilton. He’s an interesting tournament play this week because people will gravitate towards Hilton after a big week, and it’s possible that I’m wrong about the Colts moving Hilton to the right side more than usual. If that’s the case, I’m not high enough on Grant this week, who I’m slotting in as a low-end WR4.
Nelson Agholor: He’s the engine of the Eagles offense right now, totaling 22 targets through two games and turning them into 16/121/1. Things will get a bit easier for Agholor when Alshon Jeffery returns, but the volume will make up for the reduced efficiency until then. The Colts have Kenny Moore cover the slot for them, an undrafted free agent from last year. He doesn’t have much experience in the NFL, as he’s seen just 42 targets in coverage, though he’s yet to allow a touchdown on those targets. He’s just 5-foot-9 and 179 pounds, and we know that Wentz is willing to give his receivers a chance in tight coverage. I’m playing Agholor as a WR3 this week, as there’s simply not many places for the targets to go. His price has gone up quite a bit, making it a bit risky to use him in cash with it being Wentz’s first start.
Kamar Aiken: After Mike Wallace went down, Aiken stepped in and logged 61 snaps in Week 2. He flashed ability with the Ravens before going to the Colts and rotted as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Hilton and Moncrief. Can he find his way back into fantasy relevance with Wentz? Going against his old team, he’s going to see Nate Hairston in coverage the majority of the day. Hairston is a second-year cornerback who has allowed a 68 percent catch-rate in his coverage, including 9/97/0 on 10 targets in coverage this season. He’s not going to be a must-play or anything, but if you play in a league where you’re desperate, Aiken could see five targets in this plus-matchup.
TEs
Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron: Doyle is typically the tight end you want from this offense but he’ll miss the game with an injury. The Eagles are not a dominant team against tight ends, though they aren’t as bad as their year-long stats look, as O.J. Howard‘s 75-yard touchdown catch-and-run inflated those numbers. Still, with us projecting Luck to throw the ball quite a bit in this game and the lack of weapons he has to throw to, Ebron becomes a solid TE1 who can be considered for both cash and tournament lineups.
Zach Ertz: The targets were there for Ertz with Foles under center, but the production was a bit lacking in the touchdown department. Enter Wentz and hope for the best. The truth of the matter is that Ertz did struggle to score touchdowns prior to 2017, as he’d never scored more than four in a season before then. The Colts have a young linebacker group who has been better than expected, but they may struggle with someone like Ertz. They’ll have Clayton Geathers come down in coverage as well, though he’s struggled early-on, allowing 6/69/1 in his coverage through two weeks. With Sproles potentially out another week and knowing that Wentz has limited options in the passing-game, Ertz should be peppered with targets, making him an elite TE1 this week and one I’d like to get in a few tournament lineups.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Total: 39.5
Line: JAX by 6.5
QBs
Marcus Mariota: As of this time, I’m going to assume Mariota plays, though you’ll want to pay attention to the inactive list on Sunday morning (if you wanted to play him). The issue is that he’s going on the road to play against the indestructible Jaguars defense that has allowed just two quarterbacks to score more than 18 fantasy points over their last 18 games. Those quarterbacks were Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo. We’re not discussing a less-than-100-percent Mariota with those guys, and wouldn’t even do it if he were healthy. His elbow injury was causing some numbness in his fingers, which is why he didn’t play last week. The missing right and left tackles also probably attributed to the reasons to keep him on the sidelines. Left tackle Taylor Lewan should return, while Jack Conklin is likely to miss another week. Still, don’t start Mariota this week unless you’re in a 2QB league and you absolutely have to.
Blake Bortles: We saw the good version of Bortles last week, as he carried the team to a win over the Patriots. We’ve seen this out of him before, though he’s been a bit streaky. If he’s entering one of his hot streaks, it may be time to stream him in good matchups. The Titans aren’t what I’d consider a tough matchup, but it’s also not a great one. They have been beat deep quite a bit this season, though coverage has been decent for the most part. It’s why they have three interceptions through two games, as Kevin Byard, Adoree Jackson, and Malcolm Butler are a talented group. In two games against them last year, Bortles threw for just 381 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. In fact, they were two of his worst three games last year. It’s a new coaching staff, so it’s hard to say if it’ll translate, but knowing Bortles may be entering one of his streaks, he’s not a bad QB2 this week and one that can be considered as a streamer.
RBs
Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis: It hasn’t been a pretty start for those who spent a third- or fourth-round pick on Henry. Heck, even if you felt like you got value in the fifth-round, it’s not great. One of the issues are that the Titans have been missing two of their best offensive linemen, though one of them (Lewan) is expected to return this week. The issue is that the Jaguars aren’t a pushover at any position on the field, so they’ll need their “A game.” It’s been near a 50/50 split between the two backs, but this is another Lewis week, as he’ll need to be used in the passing-game. The Jaguars held Henry to just 51 yards on 28 carries in their Week 17 meeting last year, though Henry got loose on his one reception for a 66-yard touchdown. I’m not banking on that here, making Henry just a mediocre RB4 who does have big-play ability (though we haven’t seen it this year). Meanwhile, Lewis is gamescript-proof, but the offense won’t generate many points, making him just an RB3 with limited upside.
Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon: According to Wednesday’s practice report, Fournette returned while Yeldon was held out due to an ankle injury. The Jaguars were smart to rest Fournette who they’ll want at 100 percent down the stretch. The Titans have been a brutal matchup over the last two years (been a top-five team against fantasy running backs), but the change in coaching staff and personnel hasn’t helped. They’ve now allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushing games to the Dolphins and Texans, two teams with less than ideal offensive lines. Speaking of which, Fournette lost his starting left tackle Cam Robinson this week. He was playing better this year, but his replacement Josh Wells didn’t look so hot in Week 2. In the two games against the Titans last year, Fournette totaled 109 rushing yards with a touchdown, and then chipped-in with 10 receptions for 88 yards. Provided he keeps practicing, you put him back into lineups as a low-end RB1 who should see plenty of work in the passing-game if Yeldon is held out.
WRs
Corey Davis: It’s remarkable how much work Davis is getting in the offense, though we wish it were coming from a better source, as the combination of Mariota and Gabbert has been pretty bad. He’s seen a 33 percent target share through two games, totaling 117 yards in the process. This week he’s going to see a whole lot of Jalen Ramsey, who just might be the best cornerback in the league. When you combine that with the struggles of his quarterback, you can’t paint a rosy picture. There’s going to be better weeks to play Davis, though he’s still on the WR4 radar considering how many targets he’s seeing.
Taywan Taylor: It’s hard to recommend any Titans receiver with all the question marks surrounding their quarterbacks, but I just wanted to stick Taylor in here because he’s getting more playing time. He played just nine snaps in the opener, but that number jumped up to 24 snaps last week and should only continue to go up with his performance that included an electrifying touchdown. He’s worth a stash in season-long leagues, though you shouldn’t play him just yet.
Keelan Cole: When Bortles is playing well, Cole is going to be the one to benefit, as he’s clearly the top target in the offense. He’s trailing Moncrief in targets, but the efficiency is much greater on his part as he’s averaged 14.2 yards per target, while Moncrief sits at just 3.4 yards per target. The Titans aren’t going to have anyone shadowed here, so Cole will see a mixture of Adoree Jackson, Malcolm Butler, and Logan Ryan. While Jackson looks solid, Butler has been a bust in his short time with the Titans, allowing three touchdowns in his coverage. Ryan is the one who will see him the majority of time, and he was the weak point of their defense last year. He’s allowed five touchdowns in his coverage over the last 18 games and has watched the QB Rating in his coverage go up each and every year. Cole should be considered a WR3 in a game where they shouldn’t be throwing a whole lot.
Donte Moncrief: Despite leading the team in targets (14), Moncrief has little to show for it, as his 3.4 yards per target is the second-worst in the NFL of wide receivers with at least 10 targets with the only one worse is Kelvin Benjamin (2.9). He’s not going to be a reliable fantasy receiver in this offense, even if he does catch a touchdown here and there. His matchup with Malcolm Butler may seem appealing now that you know how he’s allowed three touchdowns in two games, but it’s because he’s been beat deep by both Kenny Stills and Will Fuller. Don’t trust him in your lineup.
Dede Westbrook: It’s about time we saw a long touchdown out of Westbrook, as he hadn’t had a 30-yard play in his career to that point, which expanded over 71 targets. The issue is that he’s now dropped two passes (one in each game), which has allowed D.J. Chark to get on the field at times. Chark hasn’t done anything to change playing time, so expect Westbrook to continue as the clear-cut No. 3 receiver. He’ll match-up with Adoree Jackson for the majority of the game and that’s the worst matchup on the field, as Jackson is turning into one of the better cornerbacks in the game. After allowing three touchdowns in his coverage over the first four games of his career, he’s allowed just three over the next 16 games (playoffs included). In the Jaguars Week 17 matchup with them last year, Westbrook finished with one catch for nine yards on nine targets. It’s not a week to get cute, as he’s going to bust unless he lands his second play over 30 yards.
TEs
Jonnu Smith: With Delanie Walker on injured reserve, the Titans had Smith play all 59 snaps in the loss to the Texans, though it was Luke Stocker who saw the two targets directed at tight ends. This is obviously an issue, but Smith did run far more routes than Stocker (17 to 5). You cannot start him against the Jaguars who just held Rob Gronkowski and Evan Engram to a combined four catches for 33 yards and no touchdowns. We’ll continue to monitor the situation, but this isn’t one where you should even consider him.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: It was good to see Seferian-Jenkins score in a good matchup last week, and he’s now seen five targets in back-to-back games to start his Jaguars career. His yardage was always a problem with the Jets and it appears to be the case again, as he’s averaged just 4.8 yards per target. The Titans were a team who allowed plenty of yards to tight ends in 2017 (9th-most), but they allowed just five touchdowns (tied for 10th-fewest). With Fournette back in the lineup, they’re likely to go his route in the red zone, making Seferian-Jenkins just a back-end TE2 who busts without a touchdown.
