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After the third week of the preseason, teams should have their Week 1 depth charts planned out. As a result, you’ve probably gotten the last dose of information before your draft. If you haven’t drafted yet, recent ADP trends are essential to keep an eye on. You might be able to steal a player a round or so after he’d been getting drafted earlier in the preseason, and you should try to avoid overpaying for a player who has burst onto the scene at a convenient moment. That said, sometimes players fall for a reason, and sometimes those who jump up draft boards meet their higher-round value.

So who’s trending up and down after the third week of the preseason? I’ve got some numbers, and I included all top-75 players in PPR whose ADPs changed by two or more through the past week. You can check out their current ADPs (and their expert consensus rankings) here.

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The Fallers

 
Melvin Gordon (RB – LAC)
Gordon’s ADP has plummeted out of the first round and into the fourth since his holdout began. Experts expect that it’ll continue into the regular season, and a deal does not seem forthcoming. That said, I’d like to remind you that Gordon does not need a full season to finish as an RB1. He had top-10 numbers in 2016 and 2017 despite missing three and four games, respectively. If you’re considering Gordon, you should note that there are three possible outcomes to his holdout: a) he misses some games, b) he gets traded (maybe after missing some games), or c) he sits out the full season. While I can’t predict the future, Gordon’s past performances tell us that if he makes a mid-season return with fresh legs, he could be a league-winner. If you can get Gordon as a fourth-round RB2 to pair with either Austin Ekeler or Justin Jackson, you might be turning some heads come December.

T.Y. Hilton (WR – IND)
Pour one out for Andrew Luck. While you’re at it, pour one out for any chance that Hilton finishes as a WR1. In his one season with Jacoby Brissett behind center, Hilton caught 57 passes for 966 yards and four scores, good for a WR27 finish. That’s a solid statline for a WR3 or a flex, not for the 33rd-overall player. There are some signs that Hilton could beat his 2017 numbers, however, as both the Colts’ coaching staff and offensive line have improved. Frank Reich led the Colts to a 10-6 record and a playoff berth, while Quenton Nelson has emerged as an All-Pro guard. Brissett might have enough time to lob some deep passes Hilton’s way, so keep an eye on him during your draft. If no one wants to touch him by the fifth or sixth round, consider pulling the trigger.

Marlon Mack (RB – IND)
I don’t get why Mack is falling. Although the Colts will have to adapt to life without Luck, Mack could be a prime beneficiary if they need to run the ball more. Mack struggled in 2017 with Jacoby Brissett, but the Colts’ offensive line has improved since then. Football Outsiders ranked the Colts 16th in stuffed runs that season, but they’ve since improved to 4th. Their overall rank jumped from a mediocre 18th to an impressive 4th place. Not bad, Frank Reich. Even if Luck’s departure doesn’t mean more carries for Mack, he averaged 16.25 carries for 75.667 yards and .75 touchdowns through twelve games last season. Over 16 games that would have given Mack 192 fantasy points, good for RB11. He didn’t finish far behind that measure, as his 12-game season was still good enough for RB19. Don’t let Luck’s sudden retirement distract you from Mack’s proven RB2 production.

Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
Maybe fantasy drafters are finally getting uncomfortable with taking three wide receivers from the same offense in the top-50 picks. If that’s true, use their discomfort to your advantage. Sure, Kupp is coming off of an ACL tear, but players like Keenan Allen and Jordy Nelson have proven that those aren’t career-enders anymore. Kupp and quarterback Jared Goff have great chemistry, and experts like Eli Berkovits have good reason to take him over similarly-drafted players like Kenny Golladay. The Rams run a high-powered passing offense that will get Kupp the ball a lot and in scoring situations. Mike Tagliere ran some numbers back in July on how important high-scoring offenses are to a wide receiver’s fantasy performance, and he found that over half of top-24 receivers come from top-12 scoring offenses. Kupp averaged five catches for 70 yards and .8 touchdowns through eight games last season, good for 135.1 points and WR51. If you double his numbers to account for a 16-game season, he would have notched a WR10 finish. Right now, you have a shot with a guy who flashed WR1 potential as the Rams’ WR3 in your fifth or sixth round. Take it.

Lamar Miller (RB – HOU) and Andrew Luck (QB – IND)
These players will not see the field in 2019. Unless you want the sacko, don’t draft them.

The Risers

 
Antonio Brown (WR – OAK)
When Brown fell to 22 after the first week of the preseason, I told you to keep taking him around there. Now that he’s back up to 20, my take stays the same. Brown is as proven as they come in fantasy football, and he’s finished as the fantasy WR3, WR1, WR1, WR1, WR1, and WR5 since 2013. Yes, those are four-consecutive WR1 performances in case you’ve forgotten. While he might not be returning to Heinz Field to catch passes from Ben Roethlisberger, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has proven that he can produce solid fantasy wideouts. Michael Crabtree finished as the WR16 and WR12 in his first two seasons with Carr, and even inconsistent Amari Cooper notched WR21 and WR14 finishes in those two seasons. The only other question mark for Brown is whether head coach Jon Gruden can make the most of his talent. Given his success with Tim Brown before the NFL entered its current pass-happy era, I think that he can. Brown should be well-worth his ADP this year. That’ll be true even if it rises a little more.

Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)
I wrote back in June that Adam Thielen was not worth his WR9 ADP. He fell to WR12 before last week’s preseason games, and now he’s going as the WR11 at 23rd overall. Back then, I argued that he wouldn’t see as many looks in a more run-oriented Vikings offense. His disappointing performance in Kevin Stefanski’s offense still should concern drafters, but I’ve come around on him a bit since then. The Vikings gave Thielen a 4-year, $64 million contract in the offseason, so I’m confident that the team has a plan for the formerly-undrafted wideout. Thielen was the WR1 before his Week 10 bye last season, and while I doubt that he can replicate such a performance, he’s an excellent WR2 and an acceptable WR1 if you take a pair of running backs early in your draft.

Damien Williams (RB – KC)
Williams’ four-spot rise is likely due to his impressive performance in the Chiefs’ third preseason game. He only notched two yards on one carry, but he earned 74 yards and a touchdown on three receptions. These numbers include the medium-yard pass that ran into the endzone for 62 yards. While some speculated that Carlos Hyde could usurp Williams for the starting job, rookie Darwin Thompson seems to have beaten Hyde for his duties. The logic for Williams as an RB1 or RB2 stems from coach Andy Reid’s proven track-record with producing top-tier fantasy options, but you shouldn’t let Williams’ one big play inflate his value too much. Reid said that the Chiefs would use a committee earlier this month, and the fact any speculation exists about Williams losing the starting job should concern you. Williams is an all-upside, no-floor option this season, and don’t let his skyrocketing ADP suggest otherwise.

Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
After Ekeler’s ADP jump following the first week of the preseason, I talked him down. He was inefficient without Melvin Gordon, I argued, and Justin Jackson would benefit more without Gordon than Ekeler would. Well, the preseason snap counts are in, and Ekeler beat Jackson 40 snaps to 21 with the first-team offense. Ekeler had just jumped to 75th overall, and now he’s going at 69th. While I still believe that Jackson is the more complete back, I think that targeting Ekeler as an RB2 or RB3/flex play could be smart in the right circumstances. The guy has a solid PPR floor even with Gordon on the field as the Chargers’ change-of-pace back. If Gordon sits out, Ekeler will still be the same high-floor, low-upside guy that he’s been in the past. That said, if you want a high-upside RB1 lottery ticket, take Jackson instead.

Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)
Sanders’ impressive seven-point jump wasn’t due to his on-the-field performance last week. He played one snap, the opening kickoff, which he kneeled for a touchback. The rest of his offseason has been much more impressive, and Eagles offensive coordinator Mike Groh said that he was “what we thought he was when we drafted him.” That said, he’s still listed behind Jordan Howard on the team’s online depth chart. Even if Sanders were to pass him, the Eagles are still a committee backfield. The team also ran the 13th-fewest running plays last season at 398, opting instead to pass the ball the 7th-most times in the NFL. Sanders is an intriguing RB3 or flex play, and I’d want to see his role on the Eagles before I committed to him as anything else. Seventh-round draft capital makes some sense for Sanders, but don’t let yourself overpay for him.

Josh Gordon (WR – NE)
Flash Gordon is back again! Between Week 4 and Week 14, the only 10-game stretch that Josh Gordon has played for the Patriots, he finished as the WR25. Over 16 games that would have earned him 203.2 points and WR23. While I’m all for the Flash Gordon hype train, don’t come in expecting the same numbers that he put up in Cleveland back in 2013. Gordon could earn a larger target-share on the Patriots’ offense without Rob Gronkowski or Chris Hogan around, but he’s not anything more than a high-upside WR3 at this point. If you can take him at his 75th-overall ADP as your WR3, go for it. But I expect that his meteoric rise up draft boards will continue, which will put his price above what I’d be willing to pay.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.