Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team, PPR, No. 10 Pick (2022)
It’s never too early to prepare for your 2022 fantasy football draft. What better way to do so than to mock draft against the top experts in the fantasy football industry! You can use our FREE mock draft simulator to do just that. Let’s take a look at our latest mock draft and player notes.
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
Mock Draft Picks: 12-Team, PPR, No. 10 Pick
Round 1, Pick 10: Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
Justin Jefferson has been a revelation since entering the league. He has the most receiving yards in NFL history (3,016) in a player’s first two seasons and is PFF’s second-highest-graded receiver over that span (91.7).
The Minnesota Vikings wide receiver finished 2021 as the WR4 in fantasy points per game (19.5 PPR) and expected fantasy points per game (18.8). Jefferson was the model of consistency at just 22 years old, finishing as a weekly top-20 wide receiver in 76% of his games (13 of 17) while commanding the league’s third-highest target share (27%) and No. 1 air yards share (44%).
Round 2, Pick 3: Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
2021 was a somewhat odd season for Stefon Diggs as his fantasy production took a step back from his first season in Buffalo. His 29% target share fell to 24% as did his yards per route run (2.5 versus 1.8). This resulted in Diggs finishing with just two games with at least 90 receiving yards, a dramatic decrease from his ten 90-plus yard outings during the 2020 regular season.
He finished as a top-15 WR just once through the first nine weeks of the season but improved down the stretch as Buffalo’s offense hit its stride. He had three top-10 finishes as the WR8 in fantasy points per game in half-point scoring (14.8).
Still, top-five upside still exists with Diggs in this explosive Bills offense even if his target share holds at 24% in 2022. Because his command of high-value targets in the Buffalo offense was unmatched by almost every other WR in the NFL.
He was one of just two WRs to hit over 2,000 air yards (Justin Jefferson). Diggs also commanded the most end-zone targets in the NFL (25) during the regular season – six more than the next closest receiver (Justin Jefferson).
Round 3, Pick 10: David Montgomery (RB – CHI)
David Montgomery finished as the RB12 and RB6 in fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons, surpassing expectations. The Bears’ receiving weapons are depleted outside of Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, so there’s an easy pathway for plenty of check downs weekly. With Fields under center, he saw 4.75 targets per game, which would be a new career-high if that repeats this upcoming season.
The problem for Montgomery is the new regime has no previous ties to him. He’s seen an 80-90% opportunity share over the last two seasons, which has helped fuel his fantasy stock. Still, new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy comes from a system in Green Bay that hasn’t pushed Aaron Jones over the 60% opportunity share mark since 2020. It’s conceivable Montgomery will lose snaps on early downs to Khalil Herbert or Darrynton Evans and routes to Trestan Ebner. If that comes to fruition, he’s better viewed as a high-end RB3 with low-end RB2 upside.
Round 4, Pick 3: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
Pittman got the true WR1 treatment from the Colts coaching staff in 2021, running a route on 96% of offensive dropbacks – third to only Cooper Kupp (WR1) and Ja’Marr Chase (WR4) through 17 weeks. He also finished the season tied for the league’s eighth-highest target share (24%), which was 11 percentage points higher than the next closest Colt, Zach Pascal, at 13%.
He also made 18 highlight-reel contested catches — the fourth most in the NFL. And his 31% target share from Weeks 13-18 cemented his place in Indy’s WR1 chair heading into 2022.
With Matt Ryan under center Pittman has the volume potential to be a top-12 fantasy option. Ryan has a history of fueling top-end fantasy WRs like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, making a top-five finish not all that crazy for Big Mike in 2022.
Don’t forget that last season, Ridley as the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver owned the sixth-highest target rate per route run and ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5).
Round 5, Pick 10: Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
My highest-ranked rookie running back is Breece Hall. The Jets selected the Iowa State product at the top of Round 2, signifying his status as the team’s locked-in RB1 for the foreseeable future. Hall’s three-down skill set suggests he never has to come off the field, and the sheer volume he garners will vault him into redraft’s top-20 running back territory.
Hall totaled over 4,500 yards from scrimmage, 50 touchdowns and 80 catches over three seasons in the college ranks.
A workload of approximately 240 touches — based on ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay’s projections and how many touches the cumulative Jets RB1 earned last season — would place Hall inside the top-15 considering every running back last season that hit that threshold finished inside that ranking.
2021 fourth-rounder Michael Carter had his moments as a rookie, but the Jets know he’s just a No. 2 running back. Anticipate Hall to shoulder 15-20 touches per game based on the workload that Carter received last season when Tevin Coleman missed time.
From Weeks 7-9 with Coleman sidelined, Carter averaged 19 touches per game and a 66% snap share. Upon Coleman’s return from injury in Week 10, Carter averaged 14 touches per game and a 55% snap share in the games they played together.
Round 6, Pick 3: Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
Lamar Jackson had a season to forget in 2021, as he dealt with a plethora of injuries/illnesses and regressed immensely as a passer. Two key metrics at PFF that are important to analyze for QBs are performance in a clean pocket and throwing at the intermediate level.
Jackson ranked 28th in passer rating from a clean pocket (90.4) and 22nd in PFF passing grade at the intermediate level (70.0). Despite all his shortcomings as a passer, Jackson still finished the season second in expected fantasy points per game (23.8) and seventh in fantasy points per game (21.3).
His expected fantasy point per game output marked the highest of his career thanks to the Ravens’ willingness to throw more in 2021. From 2019-2020, Jackson had 37 or more passing attempts in a game only four times. He did so five times in 2021, with Baltimore throwing at a 60% clip.
However, I would not anticipate the pass-heavy approach to continue into 2022. Their philosophical change on offense was forced out of necessity based on the injuries. But a lack of passing doesn’t impact Jackson the way it does most other QBs with his greatest fantasy asset being his legs.
Jackson may never recapture his 2019 rare MVP form when he averaged north of 28 fantasy points per game, but a 22-point per game average seems like his norm based on his last two years of fantasy production. In 2020, he led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback. That cements him as a clear-cut top-5 fantasy QB.
Round 7, Pick 10: AJ Dillon (RB – GB)
A.J. Dillon started to emerge from his protege’s shadow with 187 rushing attempts, 803 rushing yards, and an RB29 fantasy points per game finish last year. Dillon isn’t the home run threat that Jones is (43rd in breakaway run rate), but he can still punish an opposing defense. He was 17th in yards created per touch in 14th in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 100 carries, per PFF), immediately behind Jones. Unless Jones succumbs to injury, Dillon is likely stuck in a 1B role with a healthy red-zone role.
Round 8, Pick 3: Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
Fantasy managers are still trying to figure out what went wrong with Brandon Aiyuk during the first half of last season. He was hyped up after an impressive rookie campaign but suffered a hamstring injury during training camp that made him unreliable in the starting offense. Through Weeks 1-7, Aiyuk had just one weekly finish inside the top 25. He also averaged an abysmal 0.63 yards per route run — a mark that ranked 98th out of 102 qualifying WRs. Woof.
But give credit to Aiyuk for turning his season around during the second half. His yards per route run increased substantially (2.16, 13th) and he averaged 13.1 PPR fantasy points per game as the WR24.
If Aiyuk can roll over his second-half production into 2022, he could end up a smashing fantasy value in a similar way that Deebo Samuel was viewed in 2021.
Round 9, Pick 10: Melvin Gordon III (RB – DEN)
Gordon is bound to be written off by fantasy draft pundits this offseason due to his age, but he proved that he still has gas in the tank in 2021. The 29-year-old running back was efficient across the board, ranking eighth in both PFF rushing grade (83.4) and forced missed tackles (45) while compiling 231 touches (16th).
Round 10, Pick 3: Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
It took much longer than many fantasy gamers would have liked, but Dallas Goedert finally broke out in 2021 after being overshadowed by Zach Ertz since his rookie year. The Eagles’ tight end finished as PFF’s second-highest graded receiving tight end (91.1) and as the TE10 overall, with the majority of his fantasy production coming from Week 7 onward. In those 11 games played — including the postseason — Goedert averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked as the TE8 from a season-long perspective.
Round 11, Pick 10: Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)
Tyler Boyd was a victim of circumstances more than anything else in 2021, with two alpha wide receivers in the Bengals’ offense leaving him nothing but scraps. The Bengals slot receiver commanded just a 15% target share and target rate per route run.
The target rate per route ranked dead-last among 73 qualifying players last season that commanded at least 100 targets.
It’s clear that Boyd can’t be viewed as much working as a clear ancillary piece of the Cincinnati passing attack. Tight end C.J. Uzomah’s departure does open up the potential that Boyd could shoulder a larger target workload, but his upside remains extremely limited while Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are healthy.
Round 12, Pick 3: Kenny Golladay (WR – NYG)
Poor Kenny Golladay. The New York Giants’ prized offseason acquisition failed to score a single touchdown with his new team despite seeing 13 end-zone targets. It was the most end-zone targets of any player to go scoreless this season.
We have an extremely large sample size of Golladay catching touchdowns at the NFL level, though – he led the NFL with 11 receiving touchdowns in 2019. So the big-bodied wideout has nowhere to go but up in 2022.
Round 13, Pick 10: Sony Michel (RB – MIA)
Give credit to Sony Michel after he ranked third in rushing yards and first in carries over the final six weeks of the 2021 season. The former Rams running back performed admirably in relief of Darrell Henderson Jr., but he was immediately supplanted by Cam Akers once the second-year back was deemed healthy enough to play a full-time role.
He signed a one-year, $1.75M contract with the Miami Dolphins this offseason, joining a backfield with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. Michel offers the least explosiveness of the bunch but has the most proven track record of shouldering a workload that translates into fantasy production at 5-foot-11 and 216 pounds.
Considering neither Edmonds nor Mostert (entering age 30-season) have ever commanded a consistent three-down workload, Michel has super interesting appeal if he becomes the No. 1 runner in the Miami backfield. Don’t rule it out despite his very mediocre one-year contract.
Round 14, Pick 3: Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
No tight end should make a bigger leap in 2022 than the third-year tight end, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons. But Graham’s currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022.
Kmet’s eighth-ranked route participation and seventh-ranked target share (17%) from 2021 hardly align with his fantasy production – no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021.
That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game.
The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields’ mobility – something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC.
An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022’s breakout tight end. He has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump.
Kmet checks off all the boxes for a tight end breakout, and that’s exactly why I have him ranked three spots ahead of consensus at TE13.
Mock Draft Results and Analysis
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.