Rookie drafts may be winding down, but it’s important to not completely switch off from your dynasty league in the offseason. Now is a perfect time to take an honest appraisal of your dynasty team and consider its strengths and weaknesses ahead of the season. In this series of division-by-division Dynasty Primers, we’ll look at how each NFL team stacks up and what buying and selling opportunities might be appropriate.
- AFC North Roundup & Trade Advice
- Dynasty Trade Value Chart
- Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Sleepers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
Dynasty Draft Primer: NFC North
After many years of Aaron Rodgers reigning supreme in the NFC North, everything will be different this year. The Lions look like the team to beat and the Vikings are breathing down their neck. The Bears have been steadily rebuilding and look more well-rounded than a year ago. Meanwhile, the Packers head into the season with an unknown quantity under center.
Chicago Bears
The Bears handled the 2023 NFL Draft excellently, trading back from the first overall pick and gaining a true WR1 in DJ Moore as well as a top offensive lineman in Darnell Wright. The Bears also acquired enough picks for future drafts, so they have an escape route if Justin Fields fails to work out. Fields came within 63 yards of breaking the single-season rushing yardage record for a quarterback and what’s even more impressive is that he was barely rushing for the first five weeks of the season. Through those first five weeks, Justin Fields looked like a complete bust in the NFL. His passing left a lot to be desired and he finished the season ranking 56th in EPA per pass attempt out of 57 quarterbacks with 50 or more attempts. However, Fields was able to turn things around from a fantasy perspective with his elite run game and it’s not hyperbolic to say he’s a top-three dual threat right now. Fields will likely see an increase in passing completions this year, simply because 12.8 per game is virtually unheard of in the NFL and DJ Moore should help with that. It’s realistic to expect regression from Fields in the running game after so many of his points were accrued from long and miraculous rushing touchdowns, but if Fields can make a leap as a passer, he can still be a top-six fantasy option.
David Montgomery moved on in free agency, leaving the Bears with a duo of D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert. They used a round-four pick on Roschon Johnson, who could immediately be the best pass-catching option of the trio. With three players competing for touches, this backfield is going to be tricky for fantasy, but Herbert has flashed at times. He out-carried Montgomery 5.7 yards per carry to 4.0, along with having a big run rate of 5.88% compared to Montgomery’s 1.55%. Herbert could be the lead back, but he’s never shown much pass-catching ability or shined as a blocker, which will open up opportunities for Johnson who yielded good results in college in those areas. Foreman is a good option but he will be the thorn in the backfield; the Bears have little invested in him and he will likely struggle for fantasy relevance. Herbert is a better option for win-now teams and Johnson is a good bet to see increased workloads over the next two years.
The Bears’ acquisition of a truly talented wide receiver in DJ Moore might mean more for their actual NFL production than fantasy results. Moore is a good receiver, but he doesn’t earn targets in the same that way a player like DeAndre Hopkins or Tyreek Hill can. He has also never been reliable as a touchdown scorer, managing 21 in his last five seasons combined, which puts him firmly outside the top-thirty touchdown scorers at the position. The Bears passed the ball at an unfathomably low level in 2022 and some positive regression is coming, but it’s tricky projecting too huge a leap from 12.8 completions a game. In every league, there is someone who believes in DJ Moore and if you can get a first-round pick for him, it’s tempting to do so.
Darnell Mooney showed us that he’s not a true WR1 in 2022, although there were occasional flashes and a couple of highlight-worthy catches on deep balls. Overall, this Bears offense wasn’t functional enough in the passing game to support him and he wasn’t able to command targets in the way some had hoped. Mooney might be better suited to being a WR2 or possibly WR3 in an offense and his startup ADP of 140.0 feels reasonable. The Bears trade of what turned out to be the 32nd overall pick for Chase Claypool looked bad at the time and looks even worse in hindsight. Claypool totaled 13 catches for 115 yards in games for the Bears and it seemed unclear how they wanted to use him. Neither Mooney or Claypool have much trade value and it’s hard to project them for anything but boom-or-bust roles in 2023. The Bears also added Tyler Scott in the fourth round, which is typically not a great area for fantasy-viable wide receivers; he is an exciting but undersized prospect who will face an uphill battle to be relevant.
Cole Kmet had an up-and-down year, managing eight finishes outside the top twenty at the position and scoring less than 10 PPR points in 75% of his appearances. He did, however, have a two-week spell where he scored 45.4 PPR points. The problem with those points is that you likely had Kmet on the bench for at least one of those games after he scored only 16.8 PPR points in the three prior weeks combined. Kmet’s 19.3% target share was the seventh-highest among all tight ends, but his 1.2 yards per route run was 43rd among tight ends with 10 or more receptions. Simply put, Kmet was unable to turn targets into production despite working against very little pass-catching competition in Chicago. Especially now with the arrivals of DJ Moore and Robert Tonyan, there is no reason to believe Kmet can take a leap forward. If you can move Kmet for a pick that could turn into one of the rookies with upside, that’s a move to consider.
Detroit Lions
Once viewed as the plucky Lions, this team is starting to look like serious contenders in an NFC depleted of quality teams. On draft night, the biggest question was if they would look to replace Jared Goff, and waiting until the third round to select Hendon Hooker shows they still have plenty of faith in Goff. Hooker was an interesting prospect, but he will likely sit for a while now, particularly with the Lions now starting extension talks with Goff. You can acquire Goff for a late first or early second round pick in superflex leagues and he makes for an excellent choice as a QB2 or QB3 thanks to solid play and the surrounding talent in Detroit.
The Lions revamped their running back room by moving on from D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. They surprised everyone by picking Gibbs with the twelfth overall pick and that high-end draft capital should go a long way to calming any worries about Gibbs weighing 199 lbs. Montgomery will likely get more rushing work between the twenties and possibly at the goal line too, but Gibbs should see a lot of work in the receiving game, something he excelled at in college. Gibbs is going as a top-five pick in rookie drafts and will be expensive to acquire, but Montgomery is available for a mid-second and could have a better year, particularly if the Lions use him similarly to Jamaal Williams, who scored 17 touchdowns and rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2022.
At wide receiver, the Lions seemed completely set with Amon-Ra St. Brown now established as a top-tier talent and the promising Jameson Williams another year removed from an ACL injury that hampered his rookie season. Unfortunately, Williams has been suspended for the first six games of the season due to a gambling violation of league policies and in the same incident, Quintez Cephus was suspended an entire season and released by the Lions. If Williams had been suspended the entire year, his value would have plummeted, but as things stand, he will be back for meaningful games. If you’ve lost faith, it’s easy to sell Williams to a rebuilding team for a player like Jerry Jeudy, George Pickens, or Terry McLaurin. Josh Reynolds looks set to benefit from Williams’ absence and if you’re looking for cover in the early periods of the season, Reynolds is virtually free in most leagues. Similarly available in most leagues, Marvin Jones rejoined the Lions after two years with the Jaguars and could pick up some of this work.
When the Lions moved on from TJ Hockenson in 2022, it left a tight end-shaped hole in their offense that had previously featured Hockenson at times. The Lions drafted Sam LaPorta as the TE2 of the class, giving him elite draft capital and gaining a match made in heaven for Dan Campbell’s gritty style. Only 20% of tight ends drafted in the first three rounds score more than 6.0 half PPR points per game in their rookie seasons, but LaPorta looks well-placed to be in that 20%.
Green Bay Packers
After three years of riding the bench, Jordan Love will finally step onto the field as the Packers’ starter and it’s hard to guess what his impact will be in the NFL with this semi-rebuilding Packers team. Love signed a contract that, on the surface, shows he didn’t want to gamble on increasing his value by playing out his current deal and suggests the team also doesn’t see him as the guy right now. Love has fewer career pass attempts than Trey Lance who was drafted the year after him. Love played zero snaps in his rookie season, and with preseason canceled due to the Covid pandemic, it wasn’t until the 2021 preseason that he made his debut. Since then, Love has averaged a 60% completion rate on his limited action, throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions. Love’s 3.5% big time throw rate over the last two years would have ranked the equivalent of QB37 in 2022, which makes it hard to envision his upside. It’s fair to say that Love might do better in an offense game-planned for his strengths, but it’s also fair to say we have no idea what those strengths are and how Love might fair. Because of this ambiguity, the market has priced Love as QB17.
At running back, Aaron Jones took a pay cut to remain with the Packers and will likely lead the backfield in touches and points as usual. From Weeks 2 through 11, A.J. Dillon averaged 6.1 PPR points per game and didn’t have a single double-digit performance, making him essentially useless for fantasy football. Dillon’s yards per carry, missed tackles forced percentage, rushing EPA, and fantasy points per touch all hit career lows as it became clear that Aaron Jones was still the lead back. Dillon is a solid backup with occasional standalone value, but this backfield belongs to Aaron Jones.
The Packers’ wide receiver room looks a lot different these days, and it’s a very youthful group upon which Jordan Love will have to rely. Between Weeks 10 and 13, Christian Watson was the WR3, putting up 99 PPR points, but he didn’t do a lot outside of these weeks and only had one other double-digit performance. Watson will be a safe bet for touches, with 14.5% of his 2022 touches being handoffs and 12.3% of his targets coming from behind the line of scrimmage. All of this should be sustainable, but projecting him for a consistent ceiling is tricky. Romeo Doubs had his moments with three top-24 weeks, but every other week was outside of the top-40 and that kind of rookie year has led to his price dropping to that of a late second. Doubs averaged 64% of snaps last year, but with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb now in New York, there’s a chance that the increased playing time benefits him. Jayden Reed wasn’t expected to be a second-round pick, but the Packers clearly liked him and with an ADP of 40 in rookie drafts, he’s a low-cost flier on a player who will be schemed touches and can get open at will.
Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft were drafted by the Packers to rebuild their tight end room and both players have good upside, but it might be hard for either to separate in their rookie season. They are ideal players to stash on your taxi squad.
Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins survived the NFL Draft without the Vikings looking to replace him, but the continuous rumors that they wanted to trade up for a quarterback make it hard to imagine him staying in Minnesota beyond this year. In 2022, Cousins had a career-high 2.9 sacks per game and his lowest completion rate since 2014 (65%). Ever since Cousins landed in Minnesota, he’s been consistently a fantasy QB2, finishing between QB12 and QB18 in points per game. Cousins’ play might be showing signs of decline, but he’s unlikely to drop too far when he’s surrounded by excellent weapons.
Dalvin Cook has been a fantastic fantasy running back, finishing as a top-eight RB in half PPR scoring during three of the last four seasons. Cook has rushed for over 1,000 yards and averaged 55 targets per game in each of his last four seasons, but there are warning signs as he approaches his age 28 season. Cook set career lows in 10+ yard run percentage, breakaway yards, and rushing EPA. In the receiving game, he saw his receptions per game and yards after the catch both fall to career lows. The Vikings don’t seem entirely sold on bringing Cook back and his dynasty value would plummet if he went elsewhere, with very few backfields likely to give him the 20.3 touches per game he’s averaged in Minnesota. Alexander Mattison is a solid buy for rebuilding teams, with his late second value likely to jump dramatically if they move on from Cook.
The Vikings needed to add another body to the receiver room with Adam Thielen now in Carolina. By drafting Jordan Addison, they immediately made their receiving room one of the strongest in the league. Addison can play inside and outside, allowing the Vikings to give defenses matchup nightmares, and one argue that he’s the WR1 of the rookie class with this landing spot. Justin Jefferson delivered a fantastic season averaging over 100 yards per game, but it could have been even better if touchdown variance had broken his way. Jefferson had the second-lowest touchdown rate of the top seven fantasy wide receivers. With a few more red zone looks in 2023, he could repeat as the WR1. KJ Osborn had 84 targets last year and likely continues to act as the team’s WR3, but with the running backs and tight ends in the mix, he’ll always be fighting a battle to be relevant.
In the tight end room, TJ Hockenson was worth every penny the Vikings paid in draft capital to bring him to Minnesota. From the trade in Week 8 to the end of the season, Hockenson was the TE2 in both points per game and total points. He scored 14.1 PPR points per game and tied Travis Kelce with 85 targets, leading the position with 6.6 receptions per game. This has vaulted Hockenson up as high as the dynasty TE3 in some rankings and if you’re not contending, it might be worth considering trading him while his value might be at its peak.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
