The Primer: Week 15 Edition (Fantasy Football)

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings

Total: 44.5
Line: MIN by 8.0

QBs
Ryan Tannehill: The current leaders in touchdown percentage among quarterbacks are Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Tannehill. That’s right, he’s thrown a touchdown on 8.1 percent of his passes which is higher than Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Andrew Luck. Do we think that’ll continue? We do not, especially going into Minnesota where the Vikings have allowed just 16.2 points per game over the last two years. I always reference this, but I do to ensure you know how great the Vikings defense has been. Outside of the one Thursday night game where they had to travel across the country and play the Rams on a short week, the Vikings have allowed just 10 passing touchdowns on 376 pass attempts (2.66 percent) with just 6.9 yards per attempt in their other 12 games. This is not a matchup you want to take your chances with Tannehill. It’s unlikely he even sneaks into the top-24 quarterbacks this week.

Kirk Cousins: His garbage time touchdown saved him from falling even further, but Cousins now ranks as the No. 17 fantasy quarterback on a points per game basis. The craziest part about that is he ranks third in pass attempts. The Dolphins are far from the Seahawks defense and should be considered a walk in the park for the Vikings offense, especially when they’re without their top cornerback Xavien Howard. They’ve now allowed 24 passing touchdowns in their last 10 games, which is more than 19 teams have allowed the entire season. Not just that, but 11 of the last 12 quarterbacks have thrown for at least 7.0 yards per attempt, while four have eclipsed 9.3 yards per attempt. Since their bye week, they’ve allowed Andrew Luck to finish QB6, Josh Allen QB2, and Tom Brady to finish QB1. While the run-game will surely be able to do some work in this game, Cousins should bounce-back after his miserable performance on Monday night. He should be considered a decent QB1 who should offer a top-12 floor.

RBs
Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: So not only do we have to worry about Gore, but apparently Brandon Bolden is going to steal some production from Drake. Without that long rugby-style touchdown from last week, Drake’s game log would look a lot different with just six touches for 24 yards. This timeshare will walk into a matchup with the Vikings, whose opponents have totaled less than 20 carries in six of the last 10 games. On the season, they’ve allowed just 3.76 yards per carry (6th-lowest) while allowing just nine total touchdowns to running backs (4th-lowest). That’s why we’ve seen just three top-12 performances against them all year. The area they’re most susceptible is through the air, as they’ve allowed 7.44 yards per target to running backs, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. Of the top 12 running back performances against the Vikings this year, five of the running backs totaled six or less carries. It’s because touchdowns and receiving work are what matters most in this matchup, something Drake sees the majority of for the team. Because of that, he’s on the low-end RB2/high-end RB3 radar while Gore should be considered unplayable, unless you’re looking for an 8-10-carry, 30-50-yard performance.

Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray: We’ve started to see the timeshare get a little bit more one-sided over the last two weeks, as Cook has totaled 35 touches while Murray has garnered just nine of them that netted just 18 yards. Cook is the clear-cut leader in this backfield and that’s something to covet going into a matchup with the Dolphins, who’ve struggled against the run for the majority of the season. They did shut down the Patriots run-game last week, holding them to just 74 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries, so we have to give them some props for that. It was a divisional game, so there’s a bit more familiarity with those two teams than there is with the Vikings/Dolphins. The Dolphins have allowed at least 100 yards rushing in 8-of-13 games this year and have also allowed at least one running back touchdown in 10-of-13 games. It does help that opposing teams average 25.2 carries per game against the Dolphins, so we should see Cook get anywhere from 15-18 carries in this game with nearly all the passing-down work. He’s a low-end RB1 whose only concern is his offensive line, but I suspect he’ll be fine. Murray could see 8-10 touches this week in a plus-matchup, but he’s not worth trusting outside of deep leagues where you’re desperate.

WRs
DeVante Parker: He’s seen 11 targets over the last two weeks, but you’re not going to want to play him against the Vikings and Xavier Rhodes. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year, but if you remove the Rams game where they traveled cross-country on a short week, they’d be the best in the league and it’s not all that close. Outside of that game, they’ve allowed five wide receiver touchdowns in the other 12 games. They haven’t allowed a top-15 wide receiver outside of that game and have allowed just four top-24 performances with two of them going to Davante Adams, one to Josh Gordon, and the other to Marvin Jones. Parker isn’t close to that tier of wide receivers, so when you’re talking about a WR3 ceiling built-in to his weekly risk, he’s nothing more than a WR5 who you shouldn’t play if you can help it.

Kenny Stills: He’s come back to life with Tannehill under center, as he’s totaled 15 targets, 12 receptions, 172 yards, and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. The buck stops here, though. The Vikings are not a team to target with fantasy receivers, especially those who aren’t part of an elite offense. Outside of the Rams game in Week 4, the Vikings have allowed just eight top-36 performances, with just four of them netting top-24 numbers, and none in the top-15. As you can see, the odds of getting into ‘startable’ territory are very slim, especially when you’re going to Minnesota, a place they’ve dominated opponents over the last two years. He’s been playing in the slot more as of late, which has helped boost his numbers, but the Vikings Mackensie Alexander has been pretty solid covering that area of the field and hasn’t allowed a single touchdown on 43 slot targets. Stills is likely the best bet on the Dolphins, but he’s still nothing more than a low-end WR4 for this game.

Stefon Diggs: You have to wonder why Cousins doesn’t target Diggs more often, as he boasts a 110.1 QB Rating when targeting him. He’s seen just six targets in each of the last two games, though part of it could be due to his knee injury that held him out of practice two weeks ago. He looks fine out there and will get a plus-matchup this week with Xavien Howard out for the Dolphins. That means he’ll see Minkah Fitzpatrick in coverage most of the day. While Fitzpatrick was covering the slot as good as anyone in the league, he hasn’t been as great on the perimeter where he’s allowed 10-of-18 passing for 150 yards over the last three weeks. It’s not a matchup where you’re foaming at the mouth to play Diggs, but it’s certainly not as daunting as Howard. Diggs should be considered a solid low-end WR2 who should have more upside than he does but needs the targets to get there.

Adam Thielen: You could hear the sigh of relief across fantasy land when Thielen came back into the game late in the fourth quarter after what looked like an ankle/knee injury that could cause him to miss time. He caught two balls and even had a carry on the final drive, so we must assume he’s okay. He’ll match-up with Bobby McCain in the slot, a matchup to target for fantasy. He’s allowed 19-of-25 passing for 247 yards and a touchdown in his coverage there, as the Dolphins moved Minkah Fitzpatrick out to the perimeter. We saw Julian Edelman light them up for 9/86/1 last week and Zay Jones tag them for 4/67/2 the prior week. Provided Thielen is healthy, he should live up to WR1 standards this week.

TEs
Mike Gesicki: We’re back to Gesicki leading the team in routes, though it didn’t mean anything, as no Dolphins tight end saw a target in Week 14. As a team, they’ve seen just 45 targets, which is less than Jeff Heuerman had prior to going on injured reserve a few weeks ago. The Vikings aren’t a team to target with tight ends anyway, as they’ve allowed just three touchdowns to the position. You’re not starting any tight end from the Dolphins.

Kyle Rudolph: Despite completing 75 percent of his passes for 7.3 yards per target, Cousins really doesn’t want to throw to Rudolph. There was a moment late in Week 14’s loss to the Seahawks where Cousins had both Rudolph and Tyler Conklin open within five yards of each other, and he chose to throw it to Conklin. Rudolph has now seen more than five targets just twice in the last nine games. It’s really too bad because the Dolphins have been a plus-matchup for tight ends. After Rob Gronkowski smashed them for 8/107/1, they’ve now allowed eight top-15 performances to tight ends, including four inside the top-five. We know better than to rely on Rudolph for that, as he’s delivered just one double-digit PPR game since Week 4, but we may be able to stream him as a high-end TE2 in this game. Against the team that’s allowed the most tight end touchdowns (9), Rudolph isn’t a terrible option.

Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 36.0
Line: JAX by 7.0

QBs
Josh Johnson: We’re now down to the fourth-string quarterback in Washington, though he may be better than the third-string quarterback. Johnson is a 32-year-old veteran who’s made four starts his entire career, though he hasn’t had one since way back in 2011 with Tampa Bay where he completed 16-of-27 passes for 229 yards and one touchdown. He also ran for 45 yards, which is oddly the exact number of yards he rushed for against the Giants last week. He rushed for a touchdown and threw a touchdown in that game while netting 24.3 fantasy points, which is more than Alex Smith or Colt McCoy had in any one game this season. The Jaguars are not a matchup to play him, though, as they’ve held Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota to 51-of-76 passing for 410 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions the last two weeks. Johnson will provide some value with his legs, but that’s likely the only production you’ll get out of him this week. He’s just an emergency option in 2QB leagues.

Cody Kessler: Through two games as the starter, Kessler has delivered almost exactly what you would’ve expected. He’s averaged 195.0 yards through the air and thrown one touchdown in two decent matchups against the Colts and Titans. If there was any game where the Jaguars would run the ball 40-plus times, this would be it. The Redskins opponents over the last four weeks have averaged just 29.0 pass attempts per game, while running backs are averaging 28.5 carries per game. This fits right in with what the Jaguars want to do, so there’s no reason to play Kessler, even in 2QB leagues, as he’ll be lucky to throw 25 passes in this game.

RBs
Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: Even after Derrick Henry‘s 238-yard, four-touchdown performance against the Jaguars, they’ve still allowed the eighth-fewest points to fantasy running backs. Prior to that game, they hadn’t allowed a running back more than 106 yards on the ground and hadn’t allowed anyone to finish better than the RB10 against them. Of the running backs who’ve finished with more than 15 PPR points against the Jaguars (five of them), all of them totaled at least 17 touches, a number Peterson hasn’t totaled since Smith was the quarterback, which was back in Week 10. Over the last three weeks with backups, he’s totaled just 12, 9, and 10 carries while losing six carries to Chris Thompson over the last two weeks. Prior to the Titans game, the Jaguars opponents had averaged just 16.0 carries per game against them over the last five games, so volume may be hard to come by for Peterson. The Jaguars opponents also average just 60.9 plays per game (9th-fewest), so it’s not a week to expect a bounce-back from Peterson. He should be considered a middling RB3 who could wind up with less than five fantasy points. Thompson’s matchup isn’t much better, as the Jaguars have allowed the third-fewest PPR points through the air to running backs, and there’s been just four running backs who’ve cracked 26 receiving yards against them. Thompson is getting healthier by the week, so he should garner at least 6-8 touches, but the matchup is brutal, making him a weak RB4 play.

Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon: It’s to the point where I’ll admit that Fournette should be better than he is. The volume is there and though his offensive line is missing three starters, opportunity is key for running backs, and with his burst, he should be breaking more long runs. I don’t want to wipe out his previous game where he crushed the Bills for 95 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries, but his performance against the Titans was brutal. Fortunately, he’s catching the Redskins at the perfect time, as they’ve really struggled to defend the run as of late. Over their last six games, they’ve faced an average of 25.5 carries per game and have allowed 5.34 yards per carry on them. That’s good for 136.2 rushing yards per game, which would lead the league over a full season (current leader is the Cardinals who allow 124.5 rushing yards per game). Knowing that Josh Johnson is the quarterback for the Redskins and that their run-game has been non-existent, it’s hard to see a scenario where Fournette totals less than 20 touches. Get him back into lineups as a rock-solid RB1 who should get back in your good graces. As for Yeldon, this gamescript doesn’t favor his role, as he relies on passing-down work. He’s totaled just 12 carries in the four games Fournette has played since returning the lineup, so he’s nothing more than a low-end RB4 for this game.

WRs
Josh Doctson: He’s in the concussion protocol, which makes him very iffy for this game. Even if he were to play, he’d see a mixture of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, essentially making him non-existent. Even if he clears protocol, do not play him in any format.

Jamison Crowder: He saw seven targets last week, though he only caught two of them, but one was for a 79-yard touchdown from Johnson. It did come in garbage time, but hey, it still counts. The Jaguars have allowed just eight top-24 performances to wide receivers this year, though the one notable performance that relates to Crowder is Cole Beasley‘s 9/101/2 game in Week 6. That was when the Jaguars were forced to use Tyler Patmon in the slot while D.J. Hayden was out, though he’s been back since Week 10. Hayden has allowed just 7.9 yards per reception and one touchdown on 37 targets this season, so it probably wouldn’t be wise to play Crowder as anything more than a WR5 with Johnson under center.

Donte Moncrief: With Kessler under center, the target distribution has been: Westbrook 15, Moncrief 14, Keelan Cole 9. That includes a 10-target game last week against the Titans for Moncrief, though he wasn’t able to do much with them, finishing with five catches for 47 yards. He’s going to see a mixture of Josh Norman and Fabien Moreau, a duo that’s allowed a 66 percent catch-rate, 13.8 yards per reception, and eight touchdowns on 118 targets in coverage. I’m not convinced Kessler throws the ball more than 25 times this week and knowing the respect Norman gets (based on past performance), it’s likely we see a 3-5 target game for Moncrief. Because of that, he’s just a high-end WR5 this week. It’s tough to consistently rely on anyone from this pass-game.

Dede Westbrook: He leads the team with 15 targets since Kessler took over and he’s got what’s likely the best matchup on the field against Greg Stroman this week. He’s playing for an injured Quinton Dunbar, so it’s not as if he earned the starting role based on his play. He’s seen just 36 targets in coverage but has allowed 24 receptions for 413 yards and three touchdowns. He best-suits the conservative pass-attack the Jaguars want to run as his 8.5-yard average depth of target is the lowest on the team among receivers. He’s far from safe on a team who’s looking to throw as few passes as possible, but he’s the best of the bunch, putting him in the middling to low-end WR4 conversation.

TEs
Vernon Davis: Many will just pull up fantasy points against and see the Jaguars allow the 15th-most fantasy points and think it’s not a bad matchup, but that’s not really the case. Travis Kelce and Eric Ebron have accounted for 37.3 percent of the fantasy points scored against them. Outside of those two, they’ve not allowed more than 36 yards to any tight end, including Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, and Rob Gronkowski. If you want your fantasy lives depending on a backup 34-year-old tight end with a fourth-string quarterback, I’ll be rooting for you, but I couldn’t do it myself. Davis should be a favorite over the middle of the field for Johnson, so I’m not saying Davis can’t perform if he sees six-plus targets, but the odds are stacked against him. He should be considered a middling TE2, even with Jordan Reed out of the picture.

James O’Shaughnessy: Another mediocre option at tight end who’s failed to reach 30 yards in all but one game this year. After a brutal matchup against the Titans last week, he gets another one this week, as the Redskins have done a great job with tight ends this year. They rank inside the top-10 against tight ends while allowing just three touchdowns all season and 46.1 yards per game to them. Keep in mind they’ve played Zach Ertz, Eric Ebron, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, O.J. Howard, and Evan Engram this year. This is not a time to get cute and start him.

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants

Total: 43.5
Line: NYG by 2.5

QBs
Marcus Mariota: It’s a good thing the Titans didn’t need to rely on Mariota last week, as he was off his game once again. The Giants haven’t been a good matchup for quarterbacks all season, though the losses of Damon Harrison, Eli Apple, and Landon Collins have consequences at some point, right? They allowed Josh Johnson to finish as the No. 3 quarterback last week as he took over in relief of Mark Sanchez, though that was just the fourth time all season the Giants allowed a top-12 performance. They’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just four games this year, including just one in their last seven games. Knowing that, it shouldn’t surprise you they boast the fifth-lowest touchdown percentage in the league at 3.80 percent. One important note is that they’ve allowed at least 29 rushing yards to quarterbacks on six different occasions, and Mariota ranks sixth in rushing yards (339) among quarterbacks. They’ve also allowed to rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks over the last four weeks. This appears to be a game that shouldn’t net a whole lot of attempts for Mariota, so that combined with the low touchdown-rate of the Giants doesn’t present much potential. He should be able to post middling to low-end QB2 numbers due to his rushing totals, but he’s not very appealing as a streamer.

Eli Manning: Who would’ve thought that the absence of Beckham would be what Manning needed? He threw three touchdowns for just the second time this season and only took 22 attempts to do it. It seems Beckham will be back for this week, which is important because if there’s one weakness the Titans have, it’s on the perimeter against wide receivers. They may have held Josh McCown and Cody Kessler to just 368 yards and one touchdown the last two weeks, but when you look at who they’re throwing to, it’s easy to figure that one out. Still, it’s not a great matchup for quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed just 7.1 yards per attempt and a 3.98 percent touchdown-rate, which both rank as the eighth-best mark in the league. The list of quarterbacks who’ve posted top-15 numbers against the Titans includes Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz, and Philip Rivers. It’s safe to say Manning doesn’t belong in that conversation. He’s nothing more than a low-end QB2 this week.

RBs
Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis: After not totaling more than 58 yards rushing in any of his last 16 games (a full NFL season), Henry explodes for 238 yards and four touchdowns? Cool. You win, fantasy football. He’s been running well lately and even before that game, he’d totaled 4.57 yards per carry and four touchdowns over the previous five games. He clearly earned more carries moving forward and the matchup this week might be the best one he’s had all season. The Giants have allowed 4.74 yards per carry over the six games without defensive tackle Damon Harrison, which included five teams rushing for at least 114 yards and a touchdown against them. It’s not as if they played dominant run-games, either. In that time, they played the Redskins, 49ers, Bucs, Eagles, and Bears. It’s difficult to say Henry is a lock to produce after his lackluster season, but he should see 12-plus carries in a plus-matchup. Consider him a middling RB2 who’s not as valuable in PPR formats. Just don’t assume he comes with no risk because of his big performance. Lewis has been trending the exact opposite direction, as he’s failed to rush for more than 3.3 yards per carry in 10 of the last 12 games. Knowing he’s likely going to wind-up in the single-digit carry territory, that’s not good. Outside of Tarik Cohen‘s 156-yard performance, no other running back has totaled more than 47 receiving yards, so it’s tough to say Lewis even has much upside in that area of the field, though losing safety Landon Collins must hurt. Lewis should be considered a low-end RB3 just because of how bad the Giants have been against the run, but he lacks upside.

Saquon Barkley: Are we starting to take Barkley for granted? It’s become the norm for him to reach 100-plus yards as he’s done it in 12-of-13 games, and the one game he didn’t netted 94 yards. He’s the No. 1 running back over the last four weeks in standard formats, topping Christian McCaffrey by 8.8 points. It’s not a great matchup this week, though. The Titans will be coming off 10 days rest and just shut Leonard Fournette down in Week 14 while holding him to 36 scoreless yards on 14 carries. It was odd because the Titans had appeared to be slipping the previous three weeks, allowing 451 rushing yards and three touchdowns the previous three weeks. Truth be told, the Titans run-defense has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde this year, but it’s a rare case when they allow one running back a lot of production. There’s been just one top-10 performance against them all season, which was to Lamar Miller when he broke a 90-plus yard run on that primetime game a few weeks back. Barkley brings a lot of big-play potential to the table, but it’s important you know that was the only 40-plus yard run they’ve allowed this year. The Titans have also allowed the fewest fantasy points through the air to running backs (87.4 PPR points, next closest team has allowed 108.4 points). Barkley is obviously in your redraft lineup as an RB1 every week, but this isn’t a week you need to be heavily weighted in DFS, though you never fully fade him.

WRs
Corey Davis: It was a brutal matchup last week and we knew that, but he also should’ve had a touchdown, as he got loose in the end zone, but Mariota threw the ball a few yards over his head. For whatever reason, he’s seen four or less targets in three of the last four games. The duo of Anthony Firkser and Jonnu Smith have combined to get more targets than Davis in that time, 26 to 18. That’s a problem when Mariota’s efficiency when targeting him isn’t great. The good news about his matchup this week is that Janoris Jenkins sticks at RCB the majority of time, which is where Davis is at just 25 percent of the time. Jenkins has been much better in coverage over the last three weeks, allowing just 7/66/0 on 13 targets in coverage. Prior to that, he allowed seven touchdowns on 36 targets. On the other side of the field, B.W. Webb hasn’t allowed a touchdown in his coverage, but he’s allowed a 65 percent catch-rate and 12.0 yards per reception. He’s not an uber-talented cornerback that you need to avoid in coverage, so we should see Davis a bit more in this game. His lower target-share is concerning, but Davis should be in lineups as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 in this game.

Taywan Taylor: He’s now seen 12 targets over the last two weeks, which is more than Davis. He’s also turned them into 9/163/0, so he’s producing on them. He’s the one who’ll see Janoris Jenkins the most, the Giants best cornerback who’s looked good the last few weeks after struggling at the start of the season. The two routes Jenkins struggles with the most is post and go-routes, but unfortunately for Taylor, he and Mariota have yet to connect on any of their five targets on those routes. The fantasy playoffs are not a time to take chances on small sample-sizes, especially when you have a quarterback who’s been as inconsistent as Mariota. Taylor is on the WR5 radar with his recent spike in targets, but his matchup might be the toughest on the field.

Odell Beckham: After missing last week with a bruised quad muscle, Beckham is reportedly feeling better after getting treatment over the weekend. He’s no lock to play, so check back here on Saturday morning, as I update the notes based on what we know. The matchup with the Titans is a good one, as the combination of Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler have allowed 107-of-165 passing for 1,389 yards and 11 touchdowns. That amounts to 8.42 yards per target and a touchdown every 15.0 targets in coverage. Of the fantasy points allowed to opposing pass-games, 59.3 percent of it has gone to wide receivers, which is the second-highest mark in the league, behind only the Saints. If Beckham plays, he’s an elite WR1 who’s against a secondary that’s allowed five top-eight performances. Update: Beckham has been ruled out for Week 15. 

Sterling Shepard: While the Titans do struggle with perimeter wide receivers, they’ve done a great job with most slot-heavy receivers. Of the 10 receivers who scored more than 13 PPR points against them, just one of them was a slot receiver, and it was Julian Edelman who’s very familiar with Logan Ryan, the Titans slot cornerback. He’s been the most consistent cornerback on the Titans roster, as he’s not a stud in coverage, but rather competent. Shepard has seen six targets in each of the last three games and it does help that the Titans shut-down tight ends and running backs in the passing-game, but you have to know by now that he’s just a risky WR4 option who’s failed to top 37 yards in seven of the last eight games. It would certainly help his projection if Beckham didn’t play, but that’s not expected to be the case. Update: Beckham has been ruled out, making Shepard a very playable WR3 this week and one who should present a decent floor in PPR formats. 

TEs
Anthony Firkser: Many are asking who this guy is, but if you were here last week, you knew that he was becoming the preferred tight end in the Titans offense. He’s seen 13 targets over the last four weeks and caught all of them for 165 yards and a touchdown. With Jonnu Smith out for the year, we should see Firkser’s snaps rise moving forward, though he’s not on the field very much in non-passing situations. He’s stayed in to block on just 23 of his 115 snaps this year. The Giants haven’t been a matchup to target with tight ends, as they’ve allowed just four top-10 performances all year, and those were Zach Ertz (twice), George Kittle, and O.J. Howard. They’re all top performers at the position, so it’s not wise to put Firkser in that conversation just yet. They’ve also allowed just three tight end touchdowns on the season, so let’s see Firkser’s bump in snaps before fully trusting him. He should be considered a middling TE2 this week.

Evan Engram: With Beckham out of the lineup, we saw Engram total five targets against the Redskins, which has been a tough matchup for tight ends. He caught three balls for 77 yards and finished as the TE12, so it should be considered a success. The Titans aren’t any friendlier to the position. In fact, they’re the best in the NFL when it comes to shutting down tight ends. They’re the only team who’s still yet to allow a touchdown to them, so when you combine that with the 35.9 yards per game they allow to the position, you’re suddenly concerned about playing Engram. The 1.26 PPR points per target they’ve allowed ranks as No. 1 in the league and it’s not all that close, as the closest team (Chargers) is at 1.40 points per target. Engram is nothing more than a middling TE2 who lacks upside.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens

Total: 46.5
Line: BAL by 8.0

QBs
Jameis Winston: It was a tougher matchup than most gave the Saints credit for and the field conditions were pretty bad, so to see Winston as the QB11 should be considered a success. The Ravens are an even worse matchup and he’ll be on the road this time. Outside of one road game on a Thursday night, the Ravens haven’t allowed more than two passing touchdowns in any game. They’ve held all but one two quarterbacks to less than 275 yards as well, but there’s an area of the game they’ve struggled where Winston does well. They’ve allowed five different quarterbacks to rush for at least 23 yards and have allowed two rushing touchdowns to them. Winston has rushed for 95 yards over the last two weeks, so it’s an added dimension to his game. He hasn’t topped 38 attempts in his last five games, something that’ll likely be necessary for him to rack-up some passing totals. There’s been five quarterbacks who’ve totaled at least 42 pass attempts against the Ravens and here are their stat lines: Patrick Mahomes 377/2, Ben Roethlisberger 270/2, Baker Mayfield 342/1, Roethlisberger (again) 274/1, and Andy Dalton 265/4. None of them finished outside the top-20, so Winston should be safe in 2QB leagues, but he’s an unappealing streamer while in Baltimore.

Lamar Jackson: Prior to the Week 14 game there were beat reporters speculating that Joe Flacco would get some snaps in the game. Then he was announced as inactive. Okay, that’s odd. Now we have Jackson dealing with an ankle injury that knocked him out of the game against the Chiefs. While they’re saying he’ll be okay, it could be enough to limit his mobility. After allowing 13 touchdown passes in the first five games, the Bucs defense has become much more competent over the last eight games, allowing no quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards or two touchdowns. It surely helps that their opponents have thrown the ball more than 34 times just once, and the one time that happened, it was the biggest game of the stretch when Cam Newton threw for exactly 300 yards and two touchdowns. Their run-defense has likely been the reason for decreased pass-production, as they’ve now allowed four straight teams to rush for at least 106 yards (with their running backs only). They’ve allowed just one rushing touchdown to quarterbacks this season, though there’s been four different times they’ve allowed 33-plus yards on the ground to the opposing quarterback. Jackson is shaping up to be a risky start in a matchup that looked promising. Now that Flacco is back to being the back-up, if Jackson slips-up, he could get the hook extremely quickly considering the Ravens are playing for their playoff lives. Jackson should be looked at as a middling to high-end QB2 who comes with more risk than most care to admit.

RBs
Peyton Barber: We knew he had a bad matchup against the Saints at home last week, and this game on the road against the Ravens won’t make life any easier for the running back who’s failed to record more than 47 yards on the ground over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed just 3.47 yards per carry on the season (3rd-lowest) and have allowed more than 64 rushing yards to just three running backs all season. All of the running backs (James Conner, Joe Mixon, and Spencer Ware) totaled at least 20 touches in the game, a number Barber has reached twice all season. He’s also not involved in the passing-game, so he’s a no-go for Week 15. Consider him a very boring, low-upside RB4.

Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon, and Ty Montgomery: With Flacco nearing a return, could it mean the end for Edwards, who’s tied to Jackson under center? Not just that, but Dixon has outplayed him the last two weeks, totaling 96 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries, while Edwards has totaled 149 scoreless yards on 37 carries in those games. After Dixon’s performance in Week 14, John Harbaugh said that they need to get Dixon more involved. Knowing the Bus have allowed 106 or more rushing yards in four straight games, you want to figure out which running back is the better play. They both may have playability if Jackson is under center, as they’ve ran the ball an average of 46 times per game since he became the starter. Over the last seven weeks, the Bucs have allowed a massive 5.41 yards per carry with 11 total touchdowns to running backs, so it’s a dream matchup while at home. If Jackson starts, Edwards should be considered a high-end RB3 while Dixon is a middling RB3 who may have more upside. If Flacco starts, Dixon would be a rock-solid RB2 while Edwards would move into RB4 territory. Montgomery is the primary passing-down back in the offense as he’s seen 10 targets over the last two weeks, but it’s unlikely he’ll be needed as much in this game. He’s just an emergency RB4/5 in PPR formats.

WRs
Mike Evans: It’s not a good week to be an Evans owner, as he’s matched up with the two best cornerbacks on the Ravens roster 85 percent of the time. The combination of Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr have combined to allow just a 51 percent catch rate and 6.3 yards per target in their coverage. They held Julio Jones to just two catches for 18 yards two weeks ago, and he had eight targets in that game. Wide receivers who travel into the slot have more production against the Ravens, but the Bucs have Evans there just 15 percent of the time, which is not enough to rely on production. He’s in the low-end WR2 conversation this week, though it’s tough to play WR3-type options over someone who sees an average of 8.5 targets per game. It’s not a great matchup, though.

Chris Godwin: He saw a team-high 10 targets on the sloppy field last week, though they amounted to just one catch for 13 yards. The targets are what’s important, though, as he’s now seen 16 targets with DeSean Jackson out of the lineup. Similar to Evans, Godwin is going into a miserable matchup with the Ravens secondary that’s allowed just eight top-24 performances all year, and just two receivers as top-12 options (Tyreek Hill, A.J. Green).  Despite playing much fewer snaps than Evans, Godwin still leads the team in red zone targets with 13 of them, so he’s always got the chance to score a touchdown, but the Ravens have allowed just nine of them to wide receivers all year. He should be considered a high-end WR4 option for this week.

Adam Humphries: If there’s someone on the Bucs roster who has a decent matchup, it’s Humphries. He’ll match-up with Tavon Young, who’s expected to return to the lineup after missing parts of Week 13 and 14. He’s a smaller cornerback whose quickness may be able to keep up with Humphries, but his 107.2 QB Rating allowed in his coverage is the worst of the starters. He’s allowed three touchdowns on just 37 targets, while Humphries has scored five touchdowns on his last 39 targets. Those marriage well together, and while we don’t want to count on little Adam Humphries for a touchdown, he does have the best matchup on the field among Bucs receivers. He should continue posting low-end WR3 numbers with a chance at a touchdown.

John Brown: The updated stats on Brown with Jackson under center are 4-of-18 passing for 71 yards and a touchdown. That’s over a span of four games. The Bucs secondary hasn’t been a highlight of their team this year, but their secondary has played better as of late. Here’s a chart of the combined performances of the opposing WR1, WR2, WR3, and TE1 by the week.

 
As you can see, they’ve been much better over the second half of the season, though it could be that their run-defense has allowed so much that pass games haven’t needed to throw a lot. It’s worth noting that just one quarterback has topped 34 attempts over their last eight games. Brown isn’t on the same page with Jackson, so knowing there’s likely limited volume, Brown is just a touchdown-dependent WR5.

Michael Crabtree: As you can see on the chart above, the Bucs haven’t allowed their opponents top three receivers and tight end combine for more than 188 yards in each of the last six games. The Ravens wide receivers as a whole have totaled just 322 yards and two touchdowns over the last four weeks combined, with Crabtree contributing 95 yards and a touchdown in them. Ryan Smith is the cornerback who he’ll primarily see, a former fourth-round pick who’s allowed 10 touchdowns on 96 career targets, so that’s the good news. It should be noted that Carlton Davis may return to the lineup (been out the last two weeks), but he hasn’t been much better, allowing a 118.3 QB Rating in his coverage. Crabtree has a plus-matchup but knowing he’s seen four or less targets in three of the last four games is enough to knock him down the rankings. He’s been on the same page as Jackson far more than Brown, so he may be the best one to play if you were to choose. Crabtree should be considered a low-upside, touchdown-dependent WR4 option in a great matchup.

TEs
Cameron Brate: He’s still yet to see more than six targets in a game this year and he’s also yet to total more than three catches or 36 yards in a game. But hey, he did catch two touchdowns last week! He’s seen five red zone targets over the last three weeks with O.J. Howard out of the lineup, and that’s a good thing against the Ravens. They’ve been so good against running backs and perimeter wide receivers that the targets have been somewhat funneled to the middle of the field. They’ve allowed 73 receptions (4th-most), 858 yards (7th-most), and six touchdowns (10th-most) to tight ends. With Evans, Godwin, and Humphries to worry about, it’s possible we see Brate somewhat overlooked. 9-of-13 tight ends have totaled at least 41 yards against the Ravens, so we should see Brate present a solid floor this week, as well as a high ceiling. He should be in lineups this week as a solid TE1.

Mark Andrews: The four-way timeshare between Nick Boyle, Maxx Williams, Hayden Hurst, and Andrews, as they each played at least 18 snaps in Week 14. Andrews has been the most productive with Jackson, as shown by the yardage totals by each player: Andrews 140, Boyle 62, Hurst 25, Williams 10. It’s not great, though, as Andrews has totaled just seven targets in those four games. It’s a real shame because the Bucs have been such a giving team to tight ends this year. There’s been just two tight ends who’ve finished outside the top-15 against the Bucs, and they were Ben Watson (last week) and C.J. Uzomah (in Week 8). They allow a massive 9.38 yards per target to tight ends (3rd-highest mark), but again, the targets have been hard to come by for any Ravens tight end. If you’re looking to play one, it’s Andrews, but he comes with plenty of risk.