ADP Risers and Fallers in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues (Fantasy Football)

by Josh Shepardson | @BChad50 | Featured Writer
Apr 2, 2019

Chris Godwin has been soaring up everyone’s draft rankings

The ebbs and flows of the NFL offseason have resulted in ADP risers and fallers in Draft best ball leagues. I first plugged ADP data into a spreadsheet on February 13, and I followed up on ADP data March 31. The biggest contributor to ADP movement was free agency. However, some blockbuster trades have also drastically changed the ADP of a few players, too.

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Quarterback

Risers

Player 2/13 (ADP) 3/31
Baker Mayfield (CLE) QB5 (74.6) QB4 (66.1)
Jameis Winston (TB) QB10 (94.3) QB9 (98.5)
Cam Newton (CAR) QB12 (101) QB11 (109)
Josh Allen (BUF) QB16 (112.3) QB14 (119.4)
Carson Wentz (PHI) QB17 (113.7) QB12 (109.1)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) QB19 (117.4) QB17 (128.9)
Dak Prescott (DAL) QB20 (117.9) QB18 (131.4)
Derek Carr (OAK) QB25 (169.4) QB23 (154.7)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) QB34 (216.6) QB26 (172.2)

 
As was the case when I tracked ADP data in DRAFT best ball leagues last year, ADP drops for most quarterbacks from the earliest drafts. Hence, you’ll notice guys in the table such as Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Dak Prescott moving up within the positional ranks despite their respective ADP falling. That wasn’t the case for all of the signal callers in the table, though. Baker Mayfield‘s ADP has surged about eight spots. He’ll have a new go-to weapon at receiver, and Cleveland’s splashy trade for one of the NFL’s best wideouts raises Mayfield’s ceiling and value.

Derek Carr also could receive a value boost from his team’s acquisition of Antonio Brown. Oakland didn’t stop there as they added another receiver who’s included below. The additions should enhance Carr’s value, but the NFL Draft has yet to take place, and the Raiders have three first-round picks. It’s possible Jon Gruden could have a QB in mind in this year’s drat class who he views as “his guy.” That means there’s some risk in taking Carr.

Ryan Fitzpatrick entered the offseason as a free agent, and he signed with the Dolphins. The landing spot should award him at least a chance at the team’s starting QB gig even if they select a quarterback in the draft. He has some interesting weapons to work with in the passing attack, and his high-volatility weekly range of outcomes fits perfectly in best ball formats.

Fallers

Player 2/13 (ADP) 3/31
Deshaun Watson (HOU) QB4 (62) QB5 (71.2)
Jared Goff (LAR) QB9 (87.3) QB10 (105.5)
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB11 (97.3) QB13 (115.6)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) QB13 (104.9) QB16 (126.6)
Tom Brady (NE) QB14 (110.6) QB21 (136.9)
Matthew Stafford (DET) QB23 (143.4) QB24 (158.7)
Andy Dalton (CIN) QB24 (167.8) QB27 (188.3)
Marcus Mariota (TEN) QB27 (184) QB28 (200.6)
Josh Rosen (ARI) QB28 (193.7) QB32 (214.7)

 
Lamar Jackson has fallen in the rankings, and his value remains tied to his legs. As a passer, he’ll have to adjust to an overhauled receiving corps. Tom Brady will begin life without his stud tight end, though, after a down year from said stud tight end, it’s a bit perplexing to see him fall so far in QB ranks. Marcus Mariota could feel some pressure retaining his starting spot with the addition of Ryan Tannehill. Josh Rosen rounds out the list, and he could have a new home this year. The Cardinals hold the top pick and have been tied to Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Kyler Murray. As an aside, rookies aren’t in the player pool at DRAFT yet.

Running Back

Risers

Player 2/13 (ADP) 3/31
Alvin Kamara (NO) RB5 (4.8) RB3 (3.1)
Le’Veon Bell (NYJ) RB9 (12.3) RB7 (7.5)
David Johnson (ARI) RB11 (15.3) RB8 (10.1)
Leonard Fournette (JAC) RB19 (35.7) RB15 (30)
Devonta Freeman (ATL) RB20 (37.4) RB17 (31.3)
Mark Ingram (BAL) RB27 (55.8) RB21 (38.5)
Latavius Murray (NO) RB56 (168.1) RB29 (64.6)
Carlos Hyde (KC) RB62 (205.3) RB33 (83.6)
Mike Davis (CHI) Undrafted RB41 (113.7)

 
Do-it-all backs Alvin Kamara, Le’Veon Bell, and David Johnson kick this table off. Kamara will have a new, less imposing backfield mate in the form of Latavius Murray. Still, Murray’s tied to a highly explosive offense and could be used somewhat similarly to the departed Mark Ingram. Speaking of Ingram, he’ll now head the backfield in Baltimore’s exceptionally run-heavy offense. I suspect the next time I check in, he’ll once again be in the risers section and crack the top-20 running backs.

Carlos Hyde couldn’t have landed in a better spot. Damien Williams was outstanding down the stretch for the Chiefs after the suspension of Kareem Hunt and the injury bug bit Spencer Ware. Having said that, he’s never been a feature back for an entire season, and Hyde’s just a year removed from racking up a volume-driven (i.e. inefficient) 1,288 yards from scrimmage with eight touchdowns and 59 receptions in his final season with the 49ers. He’s not a special back, and he might not even be an average back, but he landed in an elite offense with a chance to carve out a big role.

The Bears signed Mike Davis and dealt Jordan Howard. Howard doesn’t appear in the table below, but he slipped from RB31 (66.8) to RB34 (86.2). Davis will look to fill most of Howard’s between-the-tackles work while offering more in the passing attack. Chicago could add another back in the draft, and don’t completely sleep on the addition of Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson received his most extensive work as a running back of his career in his lone season with the Patriots last year.

Fallers

Player 2/13 (ADP) 3/31
Todd Gurley (LAR) RB3 (3.3) RB5 (5.8)
James Conner (PIT) RB7 (9.5) RB9 (11.9)
Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt/Duke Johnson (CLE) RB8 (10.4)/RB28 (58.9)/RB46 (137.2) RB12 (18.6)/RB36 (87.5)/RB55 (164.2)
Aaron Jones (GB) RB15 (28.9) RB18 (33.2)
Marlon Mack (IND) RB17 (32.6) RB20 (36.5)
Derrius Guice (WAS) RB22 (41.3) RB24 (47.7)
Jerick McKinnon/Matt Breida (SF) RB25 (49.3)/RB34 (86.5) RB32 (74.8)/RB42 (118.4)
Gus Edwards/Kenneth Dixon (BAL) RB38 (104.6)/RB47 (138.2) RB52 (158)/RB64 (207.1)
Elijah McGuire (NYJ) RB39 (111.9) RB62 (205.5)

 
Not everyone in Cleveland’s offense is seeing their ADP rise. The unexpected signing of Hunt has resulted in an ADP drop for incumbent starter Nick Chubb, receiving back Duke Johnson, and Hunt as well. Will Aaron Jones be unleashed? Maybe, but new head coach Matt LaFleur has mentioned liking both Jones and Jamaal Williams. Gamers seem are demonstrating some skepticism in Jones being fully let loose as he’s slid a few spots in ADP.

The 49ers signed Tevin Coleman, who’s played in Kyle Shanahan’s offense and thrived previously. The toast of the town this time last year — Jerick McKinnon — and last year’s leading rusher for San Francisco, Matt Breida, have both seen their ADP take a nose dive. Ditto for Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon in Baltimore after the team added the previously highlighted Ingram. The Jets were always one of the likeliest landing spots for Bell, making Elijah McGuire‘s ADP in the middle of February puzzling. The actual addition of Bell has made McGuire an afterthought and someone to avoid in drafts.

Wide Receiver

Risers

Player 2/13 (ADP) 3/31
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE) WR8 (22.7) WR3 (11.2)
Chris Godwin (TB) WR30 (75.3) WR20 (51)
Sammy Watkins (KC) WR35 (83.1) WR27 (67.1)
Dante Pettis (SF) WR40 (99.9) WR32 (79.7)
Tyrell Williams (OAK) WR55 (151.4) WR48 (118.9)
DeSean Jackson (PHI) WR56 (151.6) WR43 (105.6)
DeVante Parker (MIA) WR75 (211.6) WR63 (169.3)
Devin Funchess (IND) T-WR81 (214.9) WR44 (106.7)
Donte Moncrief (PIT) Undrafted WR50 (128.1)

 
I teased OBJ’s trade in the intro and while discussing Mayfield above, and he’s skyrocketed from the eighth receiver off the board to the third. It’s funny what happens when an elite receiver moves on from attempting to corral ducks from Eli Manning to pairing with last year’s top pick in the draft. Chris Godwin is now the unquestioned No. 2 receiver in Tampa Bay, and former teammate DeSean Jackson will add another weapon to Philadelphia’s offense. Sammy Watkins‘ appearance in this table is almost certainly directly tied to a forthcoming teammate’s ADP free fall. Devin Funchess signed a one-year deal with the Colts, and Frank Reich has been singing his praises. Donte Moncrief is a player I recently wrote about.

Fallers

Player 2/13 (ADP) 3/31
Tyreek Hill (KC) WR2 (11.1) WR9 (26.2)
Doug Baldwin (SEA) T-WR24 (64.3) WR35 (85.3)
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) WR31 (75.4) WR36 (89.3)
Zay Jones/Robert Foster (BUF) WR44 (114.5)/WR50 (132.7) WR60 (161.1)/WR68 (195.9)
Antonio Callaway (CLE) WR45 (120.5) WR64 (169.7)
Anthony Miller (CHI) WR51 (134.4) WR57 (149.6)
Nelson Agholor (PHI) WR59 (160.3) WR66 (174)
DaeSean Hamilton (DEN) WR60 (162.4) T-WR71 (200.4)
Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) WR64 (174.7) T-WR71 (200.4)

 
Overland Park police are investigating two alleged incidents that include reports of battery and child abuse involving Tyreek Hill. Hill already has a vile domestic violence incident in his past in which he pleaded guilty to strangling his pregnant girlfriend in 2015. Doug Baldwin has already undergone knee and shoulder surgeries, and he’s stated “more surgeries on the way, most likely.” Zay Jones and Robert Foster will be joined in Buffalo’s receiving corps by free-agent additions John Brown and Cole Beasley. Antonio Callaway‘s ADP has predictably fallen significantly with a new top dog leading the receiver room in Cleveland. Nelson Agholor stands to be the most directly impacted by the addition of D-Jax as a field-stretching option in Philadelphia’s passing attack.

Tight End

Risers

Player 2/13 (ADP) 3/31
Eric Ebron (IND) TE5 (55.1) TE4 (50.9)
O.J. Howard (TB) TE6 (61.2) TE5 (52.6)
Evan Engram (NYG) TE8 (71.6) TE6 (55.8)
Jared Cook (NO) TE9 (83.8) TE9 (73.6)
Christopher Herndon (NYJ) TE14 (115.4) TE13 (109.1)
Vance McDonald (PIT) TE15 (123.5) TE10 (76.1)
Dallas Goedert (PHI) TE18 (139) TE15 (125.3)
Tyler Eifert (CIN) TE26 (192.1) TE23 (165.9)
Jesse James (DET) TE33 (214.4) TE22 (162.8)

 
Evan Engram has huge splits with and without OBJ on the field, and he’s played much better with OBJ off the field. Jared Cook remains the TE9, but signing with the Saints has resulted in a 10-pick bump in ADP. Vance McDonald will be one of a handful of players tasked with picking up the slack in the absence of traded star receiver Antonio Brown. Jesse James shared time at tight end with McDonald last year, but he’ll be the new starting tight end with the Lions after signing with Detroit this offseason. He’ll have less star-caliber talent to compete for touches with than at any point in his career in Pittsburgh.

Fallers

Player 2/13 (ADP) 3/31
Hunter Henry (LAC) TE4 (53.9) TE7 (62.3)
David Njoku (CLE) TE7 (67.2) TE8 (72.6)
Rob Gronkowski (NE) TE10 (92.7) TE26 (189.3)
Kyle Rudolph (MIN) TE13 (111.6) TE14 (117.5)
Greg Olsen (CAR) TE23 (159.9) TE24 (184.8)
Blake Jarwin (DAL) TE24 (172.6) TE34 (215.4)
Gerald Everett (LAR) TE25 (187.1) TE27 (199.9)
Ricky Seals-Jones (ARI) TE28 (199.3) TE30 (206.8)
Cameron Brate (TB) TE29 (199.7) TE31 (208.7)

 
David Njoku has moved down the pecking order in Cleveland’s passing attack, and he’s slipped a spot in the tight end ranks and a few spots in ADP. Rob Gronkowski has announced his retirement, thus the nearly 100-pick drop in ADP. Jason Witten (not in the DRAFT player pool) has come out of retirement, and, oddly enough, that’s possibly impacted the ADP of both Blake Jarwin and Greg Olsen. Jarwin’s fall is without question a result of the return of Witten, but immediately after Witten announced he’d be leaving the Monday Night Football booth, many folks on Twitter and around the internet speculated on the potential for Olsen replacing him in the booth. Olsen underwent foot surgery in December (his second on his right foot), but head coach Ron Rivera says Olsen to him, “he wants to play.”

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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