A new NFL season requires prognostication about roles and usage in the wake of player movement and personnel changes in front offices and on sidelines. I’ve long preferred to get the bad news before the good news, so, with that in mind, I’m tackling the players who project to see their target share fall in 2019 in this week’s piece before looking at the other side of the coin next week. While volume is king in fake football, a dip in target share doesn’t necessarily sound the death knell for all of the highlighted players. Others, however, take a huge hit in 2019 value due to so much of their value being tied to a high volume of work that might not be there for them this season.
*ADP in the player headlines below is correct as of June 4 and is pulled directly from the site for half-PPR scoring formats. It’s then followed by a player’s ADP ranking within their position group. Targets mentioned below are from Pro-Football-Reference, and target share is calculated using those targets divided by the player’s team’s target totals.
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Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI): 109.0, WR41
The Cardinals were an unmitigated disaster last year. They ranked dead last in offensive scoring (14.1 points per game) and yards per play (4.3), per Pro-Football-Reference. They also ran the second fewest plays (902). Things project to get turned on their head this year, however, since the Cardinals have hired uptempo, offensive-minded head coach Kliff Kingsbury and spent the top pick in the NFL Draft on quarterback Kyler Murray. The offense has nowhere to go but up, and expectations are high for some of Arizona’s key cogs on offense.
It might be wise to temper expectations on Fitz. He’ll be playing this season at the age of 36, and he’s coming off of his third straight season with a yards per reception south of 11.0. He led the Cardinals with 112 targets last year, and no one else eclipsed 80 targets.
His target share of 23.7% in 2018 helped him somewhat offset his inefficiency, but he’ll have more competition for looks this season. Christian Kirk will be entering his second season in the NFL after a promising rookie campaign, David Johnson should be used more creatively in the passing attack with his new offensive-minded head coach, and the team drafted receivers Andy Isabella (second round), Hakeem Butler (fourth round), and KeeSean Johnson (sixth round) as well. A huge surge in plays run should fend off some of his likely target share decline, but I’m bearish on Fitz’s 2019 outlook.
Jarvis Landry (WR – CLE): 54.3, WR21
Antonio Callaway (WR – CLE): 131.0 (Drafted Only at Fantrax), WR71
The Browns swung for the fences dealing for Odell Beckham Jr. The former Giant opened his career in prolific fashion with 44 touchdown receptions in 59 games and four 1,000-plus yard receiving seasons in five (the lone outlier was a four-game, injury-shortened 2017 campaign). He’ll now be the unquestioned No.1 receiver for a Browns team that’s captivating the fantasy gaming community. The new top dog’s targets have to come from somewhere, though.
Landry was a target hog with 149 (26.8% target share) and will undoubtedly cede a significant chunk of his looks to his former LSU running mate and new teammate. Callaway ranked third on the Browns in targets as a rookie with 79 (14.2% target share), but he could cough up some looks as well. Rashard Higgins isn’t listed in the headline, but he’s now buried on the depth chart after flashing last year, too.
David Njoku isn’t listed in the headline either, but I’m optimistic he’ll maintain a similar target share as a matchup nightmare at tight end. Landry’s reliance on a huge volume of work to provide fantasy value makes him a hard sell as a top-25 receiver, even if the Browns take a step forward and become one of the league’s highest-scoring units. Callaway, on the other hand, is a deep-ball threat who ranked 20th in Average Targeted Air Yards (13.7 TAY), per NFL Next Gen Stats, and is being drafted at a fair price for a big-play dependent pass-catcher.
Eric Ebron (TE – IND): 61.3, TE5
The Lions spent the 10th pick in the 2014 NFL Draft on Ebron, and he delivered only one season with more than 700 yards receiving and 11 touchdown receptions in 56 games. In 16 games for the Colts last year, he delivered career highs in targets (110), receptions (66), receiving yards (750), and touchdown receptions (13). The athletically gifted tight end turned his tools into production on the gridiron, but he also required a perfect storm of sorts in order to break out.
Starting tight end Jack Doyle played in only six games, and the receiving corps was light on talent behind T.Y. Hilton. Doyle’s on pace to be ready for training camp, and the receivers will get a facelift with the additions of Devin Funchess in free agency, Parris Campbell in the second round of the NFL Draft, and a returning Deon Cain, who missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL following a training camp in which he turned heads. Ebron’s ADP is rich for my blood, with increased competition for touches and likely touchdown scoring regression coming as well.
Jared Cook (TE – NO): 70.0, TE8
Cook was the big fish in a small pond on the talent-poor Raiders last year. In his age-31 season, he put together his best campaign with career highs in targets (101), receptions (68), receiving yards (896), and receiving touchdowns (six). A perpetual fantasy football tease, Cook delivered the goods, but now he joins a Saints’ offense with heavy hitters Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara firmly ahead of him in the pecking order. Ted Ginn and second-year receiver Tre’Quan Smith also pose a threat to his targets.
He also joins a less pass-happy offense. For many years in Drew Brees‘ HOF-caliber career, he’s been tasked with throwing a ton. However, the emergence of an elite running game over the last couple of years has eased the burden on Brees. Last year, the Raiders ranked 16th in pass attempts (556) while the Saints ranked 23rd (519). Let others wishcast Cook into a peak Jimmy Graham-type season in an offense that looks vastly different than during Graham’s tenure there.
Cook has top-10 tight end upside, but a top-70 pick is too steep a price to pay for his services. Cook’s ADP suggests gamers are overpaying for his career year and also paying a position scarcity premium. With some young tight ends on the rise, a pair of first-round NFL Draft picks adding to the depth of the position, and Hunter Henry returning from injury, the position shouldn’t be as dreadful this year as it was last year. Paying a position scarcity premium is a mistake.
Zach Ertz (TE – PHI): 23.7, TE2
DeSean Jackson (WR – PHI): 140.0, WR49
Nelson Agholor (WR – PHI): 174.5 (166 Y/183 Fantrax), WR73
There are a lot of mouths to feed in Philadelphia’s offense. The team added D-Jax, and his field-stretching presence will challenge Agholor for deep balls. The result is a likely target share decrease for both.
Ertz led the team in targets by a wide margin with 156. The next closest target total was Alshon Jeffery’s 92 in 13 games. If Jeffery’s able to play in all 16 games this year, that alone should cut into Ertz’s massive 26.4% target share. A second-year leap from fellow tight end Dallas Goedert could also cut into Ertz’s looks, and the team also spent a second-round pick on J.J. Arcega-Whiteside to add yet another minor threat for targets.
Ertz is in the same boat as the aforementioned Landry at receiver as a guy whose value is largely volume driven. Out of the 19 tight ends who were targeted 50 times or more last year, Ertz’s 7.46 yards per target was just 12th, per Pro-Football-Reference’s Play Index. Ertz appears to be the most likely of the “big three” tight ends to bust relative to his ADP.
George Kittle (TE – SF): 25.3, TE3
Marquise Goodwin (WR – SF): 185.3, WR72
As you’ve probably deduced from my write-up above, I’d prefer Kittle to Ertz at tight end this season. Kittle’s 10.13 yards per target was second highest behind Mark Andrews‘ 11.04 yards per target among tight ends who received at least 50 targets last year. He’s far more efficient than Ertz, and a decline in target share in San Francisco’s offense is less damning for his fantasy value.
Dante Pettis flashed his upside down the stretch of his rookie season before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 15, rookie receivers Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd should snag some looks, and running backs Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman bring a strong receiving dimension to the backfield. All are direct threats to Kittle’s 26.5% target share from 2018. However, Kittle scored just five touchdowns, and in addition to his strong efficiency warding off concerns about a decline in target share, an uptick in touchdown scoring as part of a higher-scoring offense would do the trick as well.
Goodwin probably feels like an odd inclusion after garnering only 43 targets in 11 games last year. Having said that, he fits the spirit of the article. If gamers are looking at his late 2017 target volume with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, they might want to pump the breaks on a bounce back to that level with Garoppolo returning healthy this year. Back in early May, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area stated the team wants to use Goodwin in a Taylor Gabriel-like role from Kyle Shanahan’s season with him as the offensive coordinator for the Falcons in 2016. Goodwin’s struggled to stay healthy throughout his career and, as Maiocco notes in the linked article, the organization believes, “there is an element of diminishing returns with Goodwin’s speed if he is on the field for most of the snaps in a game.” Goodwin’s a nifty late-round selection thanks to his home-run ability, but his role makes him a volatile week-to-week option.
Corey Davis (WR – TEN): 82.0, WR32
Adam Humphries (WR – TEN): 139.5 (162 FFC/117 Fantrax), WR57
Delanie Walker (TE – TEN): 127.3, TE11
Only five teams attempted fewer than 500 passes in 2018, and the Titans attempted the second fewest with 437. Marcus Mariota played in only 14 games and left three games early due to injury, and 2018 offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur was hired by the Packers to serve as their head coach. A healthier year from Mariota and a new offensive coordinator could result in more pass attempts this year, but defensive-minded head coach Mike Vrabel may still wish to lean heavily on his workhorse back, Derrick Henry, and the defense to grind out games. Regardless, the Titans have a huge climb to get to even the league average for pass attempts.
Davis’ 112 targets led the team by nearly 50 (Dion Lewis‘ 67 was the second highest total), and they accounted for a 26.4% target share. Delanie Walker suffered a gruesome, season-ending ankle injury in the first game of last year, but the team’s leader in targets in 2017 is on the mend and participated in practice in a limited fashion last month. Walker was the only member of the 2017 team to best 100 targets with 111 (22.9% target share). The team hasn’t supported two 100-plus target members either of the last two years, and now, new slot wideout Adam Humphries and second-round pick A.J. Brown enter the mix for looks.
Humphries totaled 105 targets and a 17% target share in Tampa Bay’s passing attack that ranked fourth in pass attempts (625) last season. Like Goodwin, perhaps he shouldn’t be in this piece since his target share could potentially be duplicated with his new club, but Humphries fits the spirit of the article since a 17% target share in Tennessee’s offense isn’t the same as it was in last year’s Buccaneers’ offense. Davis should see a decrease in target share from last year’s mark, and Walker should see a decrease from his last healthy season in 2017. The latter’s ADP is reasonable and means he might end up on some of my rosters this year, but Davis and Humphries are both easy fades for me.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
