Before the season started, I wrote an article emphasizing players who were due for positive touchdown regression in 2019, found here. So far this season, it has had a 70% hit rate in players who have seen their touchdowns rates increase from last year. Keep in mind, this method catches touchdown-rate regression, which is separate from the volume of touchdowns, although it can be applied if a player’s expected use remains similar. After applying the same methodology as before since it has been proven successful, this would have predicted Julio Jones‘ increase in touchdowns last year when he started scoring towards the latter half of the season since his scoring rate was more in line with the amount of receptions and yardage he was putting up.
The candidates below have scored significantly above or below average in both a touchdown-per-touch (TD/tch%) and yards-per-touchdown (Y/TD) perspective. They are likely to regress either positively or negatively to the average rate in the NFL. Taking this further, it implies that players that are scoring more than expected could be viewed as sell-high candidates, and those scoring less than expected are buy lows. Both, of course, are depending on the player, situation, expected volume, and ROS matchups.
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Positive Regression: Players Who Will Likely Score at a Higher Rate
Quarterbacks (NFL AVG: 4.7% TD/tch, 161 Y/TD)
Kyler Murray (ARI): 2.9% TD/tch, 226 Y/TD
In an offense that has been revolutionized by Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals are now right in the middle of the league for points per game at 17th after a dreadful 2018. Murray has scored at least 16 PPG until Week 7 where the run game did all the scoring, so this expected boost stacks on top of already impressive performances. He is likely to score more, especially with Christian Kirk now becoming healthy.
Running Backs (NFL AVG: 3.7% TD/tch, 195 Y/TD)
Leonard Fournette (JAC): 0.6% TD/tch, 918 Y/TD
This almost goes without saying as every Fournette owner is well aware of his avoidance of the end zone, but Fournette will score more. With 918 all-purpose yards but only one touchdown to pair with it, his increased scoring rate is practically inevitable. You have to love his workhorse role too. He’s a tremendous buy candidate if anyone is selling.
Alvin Kamara (NO): 1.7% TD/tch, 325 Y/TD
This one is interesting, as the Saints’ offense has slowed slightly without Drew Brees but still puts up some nice scoring. Kamara had one of the highest-scoring rates in 2018 and was due for negative regression, but he went and skipped average scoring altogether by going straight to residing in the under. His scoring is very likely to improve, and the return of Brees should increase his potential all the more.
Marlon Mack (IND): 1.6% TD/tch, 284 Y/TD
The Colts have a great offensive line and Mack has been a serviceable RB2. You might think they would keep the status quo but looking deeper, we see that Jacoby Brissett has been robbing Mack of goal-line scoring opportunities. In fact, Brissett leads the league with touchdowns from inside the five-yard line. Currently, at a 284 yards-per-touchdown rate, Mack is sure to find more opportunities going forward.
Honorable mention: Royce Freeman, Miles Sanders, Duke Johnson, Kenyan Drake
Wide Receivers (NFL AVG: 9.4% TD/tch, 208 Y/TD)
Tyler Boyd (CIN): 2.2% TD/tch, 474 Y/TD
Boyd is one of the strongest wide receiver candidates for regression from a statistical standpoint with only one touchdown on the year amidst 74 targets and 471 yards, but he is also on a weaker offense and hasn’t seen much for red-zone targets. While he’s bound to find more paydirt, don’t expect it to jump as high to the average as we’d like to see unless the Bengals’ offense starts rolling more.
Robert Woods (LAR): 2.3% TD/tch, 500 Y/TD
Despite a rushing touchdown, Woods has been otherwise held scoreless while putting together a receiving line of 58-36-435-0. Let’s just suffice to say it’s hard to score at a receiving touchdown rate less than zero percent given his usage.
Honorable mentions: D.J. Moore, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry
Tight Ends (NFL AVG: 10.6% TD/tch, 148 Y/TD)
Travis Kelce (KC): 2.6% TD/tch, 541 Y/TD
Sitting already as the current number three fantasy tight end, Kelce is a major candidate to celebrate more touchdown spikes. He is leading all tight ends in receiving yards, yet only has one touchdown to his name. Expect this number to rise significantly later in the year and for Kelce to help propel your squad into the playoffs.
George Kittle (SF): 2.7% TD/tch, 394 Y/TD
Oddly enough, he was listed on this season’s earlier article of positive touchdown candidates and yet he continues to underperform from a scoring perspective. The yards are there, the receptions are there, and if he doesn’t start scoring more, I will perennially mark him as allergic to the end zone.
Honorable mention: Zach Ertz (Dallas Goedert vulturing)
Negative Regression: Players Who Will Likely Score at a Lower Rate
Quarterbacks (NFL AVG: 4.7% TD/tch, 161 Y/TD)
Russell Wilson (SEA): 6.7% TD/tch, 118 Y/TD
As usual, Wilson has been very efficient at finding the end zone. Although he is due for negative regression, I expect his to hit less hard considering his career red-zone presence and his ROS matchups. Wilson has been magical and we can’t wait to see more.
Deshaun Watson (HOU): 6.7% TD/tch, 119 Y/TD
This is largely due to his league-leading five rushing touchdowns for quarterbacks on the year. Otherwise, he is only a bit on the high end. Currently the QB3 for fantasy, he might take a small dip as his rushing scores are likely to diminish.
Honorable mention: Kirk Cousins, Jacoby Brissett
Running Backs (NFL AVG: 3.7% TD/tch, 195 Y/TD)
Aaron Jones (GB): 7.0% TD/tch, 66 Y/TD
We all remember his glorious four-touchdown game, but his current scoring rate might be the most unsustainable out of anyone on this list. With absolutely tremendous goal-line usage, Jones has been crushing it for fantasy owners so far. Both his rates of 7.0% TD/tch and 66 Y/TD completely dwarf anyone else with more than 100 touches on the year. Combine this with concerning snap share splits with Jamaal Williams and he is my top sell-high candidate.
Mark Ingram (NO): 6.3% TD/tch, 81 Y/TD
Having cooled off some in recent weeks, Ingram still has had a nose for touchdowns. The Baltimore offense continues to impress, so while his touchdowns will very likely see a dip, I believe his average yardage output will increase compared to the last few weeks.
Todd Gurley (LAR): 6.2% TD/tch, 65 Y/TD
In what has been a disappointing year for Gurley owners, he is still scoring a lot more than similarly used players. Knowing that others on this team are candidates for more touchdowns, such as Cooks and Woods as mentioned earlier, don’t be surprised if Gurley’s production falls even further. However, note that in Week 8 he does have a juicy matchup with the Bengals.
Wide Receivers (NFL AVG: 9.4% TD/tch, 208 Y/TD)
Adam Thielen (MIN): 24.1% TD/tch, 56 Y/TD
Please read his touchdown rate stats again. 24.1%! For context, that means he is currently scoring every fourth time he touches the ball. This is perhaps the most sure-fire negative regression you can count on in the entire league. Plan accordingly.
Terry McLaurin (WAS): 20.8% TD/tch, 84 Y/TD
Regardless of whether you think McLaurin F1 is the real deal, averaging a touchdown per game is almost impossible to come by. The closest person in recent memory to do this in the last three years was Antonio Brown in 2018. While he may be the Redskins’ best receiving option, don’t expect his inflated output to fool you too much.
Honorable mention: Marvin Jones, T.Y. Hilton, Kenny Golladay
Tight Ends (NFL AVG: 10.6% TD/tch, 148 Y/TD)
Jimmy Graham (GB): 16.7% TD/tch, 71 Y/TD
Graham has seen some nice red-zone work and saved some weeks for those lucky enough to stream him during a good performance. Keep in mind that one of Rodgers’ favorite red-zone targets in Davante Adams has been nursing turf toe and is expected back soon. Adams will likely see more looks and hurt Graham’s touchdown proficiency.
Eric Ebron (IND): 23.1% TD/tch, 69 Y/TD
Luck… Brissett… it doesn’t matter. Ebron comes in the clutch when called upon. There is hardly a player more touchdown-dependent in all of fantasy. Combine this with his three touchdowns on only 13 receptions this year, and you are playing with fire every time he’s in your lineup.
I hope these statistical interpretations find you well and give you a good idea of what to expect from your players going forward along with some players to deal away or target in trades these upcoming weeks. Thanks for reading!
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David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.
