Week 15 Primer: Analyzing All 16 Games (Fantasy Football)

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 44.0
Line: SF by 2.0

QBs:
Marcus Mariota: It’s been a nightmare season for the Titans, and their offense has been a big part of the problem. Mariota’s current 16-game pace is 3,442 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. To give you a comparison, Trevor Siemian threw for 3,401 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 14 games in 2016. Yeah, not great. If not for his 225 rushing yards and five touchdowns, he’d be unstartable in fantasy leagues. The 49ers will tempt you to start him, though, as they have allowed 10-of-13 quarterbacks to score at least 15 fantasy points. Even those who didn’t (Cam Newton, Drew Stanton, and Mitch Trubisky) averaged 12.4 fantasy points. There have been six running backs who’ve run for at least 19 yards against them, too. They traded away one of their starting cornerbacks at the trade deadline, and that definitely didn’t solve their problems. They even allowed T.J. Yates, a quarterback who hadn’t played since 2015, to throw two touchdowns on just 26 attempts in relief of Tom Savage. Because of the matchup, Mariota is on the streaming radar as a high-end QB2, but nothing more. He’s not safe enough for cash, and it’s now fair to question whether he’s got the upside for a tournament, as he’s yet to reach 20 fantasy points in a game, and he’s played the Raiders, Texans (twice), Dolphins, and Colts (twice).

Jimmy Garoppolo: His stats looked slightly better in Week 14, as he was able to hit 300 yards passing with a touchdown against the Texans. To be fair, that was likely the best matchup he’ll have for quite a while, but it’s good to see he can get it done without a true No. 1 wide receiver. The Titans have been one of the easier pass defenses to move the ball on this year, though they’ve stepped up as of late, holding the combination of Jacoby Brissett, Tom Savage, and Blaine Gabbert to a 246 yard per game average with just one touchdown through all three games. Not that they’re the best collection of quarterbacks, but it’s still an accomplishment, as they’d allowed eight passing touchdowns in the previous three games. This is still what I’d consider an above-average matchup, as they’ve still allowed multiple touchdown passes to six quarterbacks. He’s got the looks of a solid high-floor QB2, though his ceiling is limited with the pass-catchers at his disposal. His price has gone up to the point where there are better cash options in DFS.

RBs
Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray: Another week gone by, and another week the Titans have wasted giving Murray touches. He netted just 47 total yards on 13 touches last week, something that’s become all too familiar of a stat-line. Since the start of Week 11 last year, here are their stats side-by-side while carrying the ball.

The 49ers opponents average a league-high 31.5 carries per game, so there should be plenty to go around for both of them, but knowing how bad Murray he’s been, if he doesn’t score a touchdown, he’s not getting out of the RB3 territory. He’s split red-zone carries with Henry this year, as he’s got 18 to Henry’s 19 carries. He’s also involved in the passing-game, making him a playable RB3, but Henry is the one I’d rather play. He offers more touchdown upside and if you give him 15 carries, he’s going to break a few of them. Of the running backs with at least 100 carries, not a single one has a higher big-play rate than him. Of those with 80 or more carries, only Tarik Cohen, Kenyan Drake, and Alvin Kamara average more. To know he’s even mentioned with those guys is absurd. He’s a high-upside RB3 this week and one that I’d want to play.

Carlos Hyde: As expected, Hyde scored a touchdown last week for the first time since Week 6. We knew that once Garoppolo took over, he’d have many more goal-line opportunities. The only issue stemming from Garoppolo starting is that Hyde’s targets have gone down each of the last two weeks, as he had just one in Week 14. That stings because the Titans front-seven is one of the better units against the run, allowing just 3.41 yards per carry on the season, with just four rushing touchdowns (the best mark in the NFL). They have, however, allowed the most receiving yards to running backs on the season, at 55 yards per game to them. The 49ers should know that, so Hyde should be part of the passing gameplan once again. He should be in lineups as a high-floor RB2 this week in season-long leagues, though I’d avoid in DFS.

WRs
Rishard Matthews: In his first game back from his hamstring injury, Matthews played 77 percent of the snaps, which is right in-line with his season total, so you should be good to put him back into fantasy lineups when they play the 49ers this weekend. Their secondary has allowed opposing wide receivers catch 62 percent of their targets, the seventh-best rate in the league, while allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per target. He’ll see third-round rookie Ahkello Witherspoon in coverage, who has done a decent job being called upon so soon, but has also allowed three touchdowns on his 31 targets in coverage. Matthews seems to be the only one who has continuity with Mariota, so consider him a low-end WR3 who should probably be in lineups. It’s tough to love him too much with Mariota struggling, but he’s got tournament appeal in such a good matchup.

Corey Davis: He’s got the best matchup on the field, but he’s just a tournament option at this point, as he’s failed to top 48 yards in each of his last seven games played. The targets have been somewhat consistent from 4-7 per game, but he’s simply not on the same page as Mariota. His matchup with Dontae Johnson should net great results, but we’ve seen him fail in great matchups against the Colts and Texans, so I’m out in season-long at this point.

Marquise Goodwin: There were a few great decisions that I made in my own season-long leagues last year, and playing Goodwin was one of them. He’s now seen 20 targets in two games with Garoppolo, catching 14 of them for 205 yards. He’s scored just once this season, but has now totaled at least 68 yards in six of his last seven games. The connection with Garoppolo is real and the Titans perimeter cornerback duo of Adoree Jackson and LeShaun Sims has combined to allow almost 900 yards in coverage with seven touchdowns, making it safe to say they’re one of the worst duos in all of football. Knowing the Titans stop the run extremely well, maybe we’ll see Goodwin get his second touchdown of the year. He’s a WR3 at this point and one that you should play. He’s now priced appropriately in DFS, so it’s not as automatic in cash-game lineups, but he’s also not a bad option.

Trent Taylor: One of my worst decisions last week was to play Taylor over Jeremy Maclin in one of my leagues. While Maclin didn’t do much better than Taylor, his two extra points would’ve won me that matchup. We live, we learn, right? Taylor returned to his three-target role he’s now had in four of his last five games, making his six targets in Week 13 an outlier. He’s got the toughest matchup with Logan Ryan this week, so feel free to look elsewhere, or you’ll end up like me.

TEs
Delanie Walker: If there’s one player who hasn’t seen his performance dip very much while Mariota struggles, it’s Walker. He’s averaging 65.3 yards over his last seven games, including two touchdowns in his last three games. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the 49ers have been extremely good against tight ends. It’s something we talked about last week with Stephen Anderson, who everyone seemed liked, but not us who were here. The 49ers have allowed just one tight end to finish with more than 34 yards against them this season, and they’ve played against Evan Engram, Jason Witten, Zach Ertz, Jimmy Graham (twice), Jordan Reed, and Greg Olsen. This does have the revenge narrative that most want to play into, as Walker was a 49er from 2006-2012, though his breakout didn’t come until he went to the Titans. Walker is still someone you have to play in season-long leagues, but most definitely limit your exposure in DFS.

Garrett Celek: Another player we hit on here last week, saying he was out-snapping George Kittle, so it was no surprise to see him out-produce him in Week 14. Celek has now seen four targets in each of Garoppolo’s starts, so he’s someone we can look to play in great matchups. The Titans have allowed seven different tight ends catch five or more passes, but have allowed just four touchdowns to them all season, which is why they are ranked among the better teams against the position. He’s not completely off the radar, but it’d be nice to have more clarity before completely trusting him in your season-long playoffs. If you want to take a shot, do it in a PPR league or in DFS.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 53.5
Line: NE by 2.5

QBs
Tom Brady: It was not the game that most Brady owners were hoping for against the Dolphins, but hopefully you had a first-round bye, or that everyone else on your team picked up his slack. I did mention here last week that his numbers without Gronkowski haven’t been great, though I still played him myself in two season-long leagues. Andy Behrens of Yahoo tweeted about Brady’s failures during the fantasy playoffs the other day, which made me think, “what did he do the next game?” Of course most of those failures came in Week 16, and he doesn’t play much in Week 17. Of the other games, he followed up with 214-3-0, 140-3-0, 267-4-0, 215-3-2. He threw three touchdowns in each of the games, though didn’t throw for more than 267 yards. Do I think that matters? No, but I thought it was fun. The reality is that the Steelers defense has allowed 10 passing scores over the last five games, which has not featured any top-tier quarterbacks. Here’s the list who accomplished that: Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, Brett Hundley, Andy Dalton, and Joe Flacco. Mmhmmm, you’re playing Brady anywhere you can in what’s expected to be a shootout. He’s safe in cash lineups, too.

Ben Roethlisberger: He’s at home? Sign me up. Of the home games he’s played over the last two years, just one has netted less than 16 fantasy points, and that was against the Jaguars defense that’s shut down everyone. The Patriots defense has had so many injuries to their front-seven, it’s difficult for them to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, forcing their secondary to hang with receivers for longer than you’d hope. Against the Steelers trio, it won’t end well. After starting the year slow, Roethlisberger has thrown 14 touchdowns in his last five games. Knowing that Jay Cutler just picked the Patriots apart for 263 yards and three touchdowns, expect elite numbers from Roethlisberger. He’s another player to consider in both cash and tournament lineups.

RBs
Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and James White: Here’s something I mentioned on Twitter a few weeks ago – Burkhead is an every-week RB2 with massive upside being the Patriots goal-line back. It doesn’t mean that Lewis is unplayable, as he’s been seeing double-digit carries in every game, and was even involved in their pass-attack last week. Both need to be in lineups when the Patriots go to Pittsburgh. Over the last two weeks, the Steelers defense without Ryan Shazier has allowed 263 yards on 46 carries (5.72 YPC) with three touchdowns. On top of that, they allowed three running backs from the Ravens to rack up 29 or more receiving yards. This game figures to be a slug-fest, and if it’s not, it’s because the Patriots are pounding the rock. Start both of them, though Burkhead is the one who I’d trust in cash and tournament lineups the most. As for White, he saw a slightly extended role because they were trailing, and they didn’t have Gronkowski. He’s just a tournament hopeful.

Le’Veon Bell: This is the type of game where you want every player involved, and Bell is obviously no different. The Patriots made Kenyan Drake look like Barry Sanders last week, racking up 193 total yards, though he failed to score. It wasn’t anything new for the Patriots, as they’ve allowed a league-high 4.94 yards per carry this season (closest is 4.75 YPC), though they’ve only allowed four rushing touchdowns. They’ve also allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs on the season, at 53.2 yards per game. This game sets up extremely well for Bell, so start him as you normally would, and yes, that includes all DFS.

WRs
Brandin Cooks: Whew, that was the worst time for Cooks to fail to show up. He finished the Dolphins game with just one catch for 38 yards, which came in the fourth quarter. He saw seven targets, but Brady was picked off twice when going to him. The Steelers may get Joe Haden back this week, but they play a lot of zone and he won’t see much of Cooks anyways. He’ll see the most of Artie Burns in coverage, who has allowed a 96.6 QB Rating when targeted in coverage. He’s allowed four touchdowns on the season, including two in the last five games. He’s not one of the faster cornerbacks in the league, either, so Cooks should be able to create some separation. His 38-yard performance against the Dolphins was his second game in a row where he’s let down fantasy owners, but knowing that’s been a rare occasion this season, I’m betting on him bouncing back. He’s a high-end WR2 for this contest and one that I’d like to have in some tournament lineups.

Chris Hogan: If you were here last week, you read that I’d prefer not to play Hogan, who was coming off a multi-week absence. Watching him out there, he looked like a wide receiver who hadn’t played in over a month. But now that he’s got his legs back under him, he needs to be back in lineups. He’s going to see a mixture of all three cornerbacks, but mostly Joe Haden, who would be returning from a multi-week injury, which was a broken leg. His health or stamina isn’t something you should take for granted, so expect the Patriots to attack him early and often. If he doesn’t play, it would be Cody Sensabaugh in his place, 5-foot-11 cornerback who has allowed a 104.4 QB Rating in his coverage throughout his career, including a touchdown every seven targets this season. Hogan is a must-play WR2 this week, and one that you should strongly consider in DFS lineups.

Antonio Brown: What can we even say about Brown at this point? That he’s single-handedly carrying this Steelers team to a first-round bye? His last four games have netted 39 receptions for 627 yards and six touchdowns. Where do we begin? That amounts to 98.7 standard fantasy points, a number that just 27 wide receivers have hit ALL SEASON. I don’t care who he’s playing this week, he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the game right now. You don’t need me to tell you to play him in DFS, even if Bill Belichick schemes to stop No. 1 options. You can’t stop Brown, you can only hop to contain him. He’s played four games against the Patriots since 2011, averaging 7.5 receptions for 94.3 yards and 0.8 touchdowns.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: If the Patriots do, in fact, bracket Brown all game, Smith-Schuster has the matchup to exploit, as he’ll match-up with Jonathan Jones in the slot. As you saw last week, Jarvis Landry had no issues getting open against him, and Smith-Schuster is going to be a bigger, more physical challenge for the former undrafted free agent who stands at just 5-foot-10 and 190 pounds. He hasn’t had much competition outside of Landry, so we have to go off those games, but Smith-Schuster also had another week to rest up his hamstring, so he’ll be ready to rock. This game should have plenty of fireworks, and I’m expecting JuJu to be part of them. He’s a WR3 for this game and one that I’d try to get in a couple of tournament lineups.

Martavis Bryant: He’s going to match-up with Butler most likely, as I’m assuming the Patriots will put Stephon Gilmore on Brown with safety help almost all game. That would be the best-case scenario for Bryant, who runs a 4.3-second 40-yard dash, while Butler is one of the slower cornerbacks in football, as he ran a 4.62 when drafted. You aren’t going to start Bryant over someone who is proven to produce week-in and week-out, but if you’re looking for an upside WR4, he could be that. He’s not a cash-game consideration, though I’d suggest snagging a few tournament shares as a pivot off Brown.

TEs
Rob Gronkowski: The Patriots are sure glad to have him back for this game, which could determine who gets home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Gronkowski has dominated the Steelers in his career, averaging 6.0 receptions for 99.2 yards, and 1.6 touchdowns. Is that good? Now, the Steelers have actually allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends, as they’ve allowed an average of just 41.1 yards and have allowed a league-best two touchdowns to them. They have played against Delanie Walker (6/92/0), Kyle Rudolph (4/45/0), and Travis Kelce (4/37/0), but nobody really compares to Gronk, right? You aren’t going to sit Gronk in season-long, but what about DFS? I’d avoid him in cash-games, but play him in tournaments. Brady will be looking for 87 more often than not.

Jesse James: What in the world is the fantasy season coming to when James finishes as the No. 2 tight end in the first week of the fantasy playoffs? With 10 catches for 97 yards, there will be a lot of fantasy owners looking into whether or not to start him. It would help if Vance McDonald was out of the lineup, as his status is up in the air as I write this, due to a shoulder injury. The Patriots haven’t been a stranger to allowing tight ends to perform well, as there’ve been seven tight ends to finish top-12 against them, though none have in the last three weeks. James is the guy you play if you’re feeling lucky, as it’s typically touchdown-or-bust, though last week was a bit different. We also mustn’t forget that Roethlisberger threw the ball 66 times in that game. James is a very risky TE2, but one who can pay off with a touchdown. You can definitely do worse than him as a punt-play.

Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders

Total: 46.0
Line: DAL by 3.0

QBs
Dak Prescott: Despite having the toughest stretch of his career a few weeks back, Prescott sits as the No. 7 quarterback on the season, including his third-best performance of the season against the Giants when he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns. It’s safe to say that his hand is okay after taking that hit in Week 13. The Raiders defense has looked better since firing their defensive coordinator, but we have to keep it all in perspective. They have played against the Broncos, Giants, and Chiefs during those weeks, and it’s not like Alex Smith had a bad game, he just didn’t get the touchdowns. They have allowed four different quarterbacks to throw for three touchdowns against them, and three of those quarterbacks have come Week 9 and beyond. They have intercepted just two passes all season, so Prescott should be taking risks to Dez Bryant in this game, as they don’t have any top-tier cornerback talent. Prescott should be a QB1 this week who comes with a high-floor against a bad Raiders team.

Derek Carr: At what point do we say that Carr just might not be very good? Not that he’s a bad quarterback, but he’s regressed this year, throwing for multiple touchdowns just twice in his last 10 games, which included some Grade-A matchups. He’s now failed to score more than 15 fantasy points since Week 7, and before that, it was way back in Week 2. Seeing the Cowboys next up on the schedule should make you want to play him, as they’ve held just three quarterbacks below 13 fantasy points all season, and two of those games were to Eli Manning. It gives him a solid floor, but when you’re looking to win a fantasy championship, you need more. He’s just a middling QB2 who should be more in a great matchup. Knowing the Cowboys have allowed 21 or more points to four different quarterbacks keeps him on the table in tournaments, but if Amari Cooper is out again, I’d likely remove him from that list.

RBs
Alfred Morris and Rod Smith: I was asked this week whether or not Smith was a ‘must-add’ on waiver wires this week, and my response was “no.” If he hasn’t taken the starting job yet, they aren’t going to switch now with just one week to go before Ezekiel Elliott returns. Smith offers you big-play potential and will turn out to be the better play than Morris if the Cowboys fall behind, but that’s hard to see this week. This matchup is between two underwhelming football teams, though it’s likely that the Cowboys are the better team at this point. At the very least, the game should remain competitive, meaning Morris won’t just go away. The Raiders have allowed just one of the last five teams to play them to total more than 89 yards on the ground as a team, though the Giants and Broncos were involved in that sample. After allowing just three rushing touchdowns over the first 11 games, they have now allowed three rushing scores over the last two weeks, which gives some confidence when playing Morris, who offers nothing in the passing game, so he almost has to score. Because of that, he’s a high-end RB3, while Smith is more of a desperation flex where you’re hoping for the Cowboys to fall behind.

Marshawn Lynch: We’d been seeing an increased role for Lynch coming into Week 14, as he was averaging 19 touches per game in the previous four games. But then… they gave him just seven carries against the Chiefs. He averaged 8.7 yards per carry on them and scored a touchdown, but whatever, who needs him when you have Carr? It’s such a small sample size, but Lynch has averaged 13.3 carries per game at home compared to just 10.8 carries per game on the road, so it helps that he’s at home. The Cowboys got Sean Lee back last week, so while they aren’t a stomp-ground anymore, they still aren’t a matchup to avoid. The Cowboys have also allowed opponents 2.1 more carries per game on the road. The Raiders defense needs to hang around in this game, which is a risk, but Lynch should come in as a high-end RB3, at worst. He’s not someone I’m interested in for DFS this week, simply because of his lack of involvement in the passing game.

WRs
Dez Bryant: Bryant was in my ‘buy’ column before the fantasy playoffs, as his schedule really lightened up due to the injured cornerbacks on his schedule. He took advantage of that in Week 14, tagging the Giants for 73 yards and a touchdown, and now he gets the Raiders secondary that has allowed three wide receivers to total 125 or more yards, and that’s despite just one wide receiver seeing more than nine targets. The Raiders have only seen 221 wide receiver targets on the year, which is the third-fewest in the league, but they’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per target. Bryant hasn’t seen more than seven targets in the last three games, but there’s been five different occasions this year where he’s seen targets in the double-digits. There’s little reason to fade Bryant against Dexter McDonald, a seventh-round pick from 2015 who has allowed a 74 percent catch rate in his coverage over his career. He’s playing only because of injuries. Bryant should be a low-end WR1 on Sunday night football.

Terrance Williams: He’s still yet to score this year, so it’s bound to happen when we’re all-in on Bryant in the fantasy playoffs, right? His matchup against Sean Smith is worst than Bryant’s matchup, so feel free to avoid Williams, as we always do.

Michael Crabtree: I’m not expecting Amari Cooper to play in this game, so Crabtree will be the insto-defacto No. 1 wide receiver once again. With Cooper missing basically the entire game, he saw 13 targets against the Chiefs, which was easily his highest mark of the season. He turned those into seven catches for 60 yards, a performance that he should top against the trio of Cowboys rookie cornerbacks. It seems that Crabtree would see the majority of Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis, who have combined to allow four touchdowns on 64 targets in coverage, though Awuzie has only played a significant role over the last two weeks, so don’t be shocked if the Raiders target that matchup. Crabtree is a must-play WR2 this week and someone you should consider in cash-games. He’s scored all six of his touchdowns this year while at home.

TEs
Jason Witten: In four of the last six games, Witten has recorded just one single catch. Is it possible that we’ve reached the end? He’s 35 years old and doesn’t have a small frame at all. The Cowboys are lacking receiving options, so you’d think he’d be more involved, but maybe he can’t be that guy anymore. The last two weeks were also against the Redskins and Giants, two of the worst teams when it comes to defending tight ends. He scored in both games, but it’ll be interesting if he can hit three games in a row against the Raiders. On the year, they have allowed seven tight ends to finish with at least 58 yards against them, with eight tight ends finishing with four or more receptions. You want to say that he’s safe, but he’s really not. Consider him a high-end TE2 who has a great matchup.

Jared Cook: Just when we gave up on him, Cook goes out and totals 75 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs. It was the second time this season he’s destroyed them, so maybe it’s a matchup thing, because he’d finished with just 47 yards in the three prior games combined. He has seen at least five targets in each of his last seven games, which is often what we look for, but it’s been a roller-coaster of a season for Cook. He adds even more volatility at an already fragile tight end position in fantasy, but it would help him if Amari Cooper misses the game. After not allowing a top-12 tight end over the first eight weeks, the Cowboys have really struggled against the position since that time, allowing Travis Kelce 7/73/1, Austin Hooper 6/49/1, Hunter Henry 5/76/1, and the combination of Evan Engram/Rhett Ellison 8/74/1 since then. Because of that, Cook is on the streaming radar this week as a low-end TE1/high-end TE2. Shoot me now.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 48.0
Line: ATL by 6.0

QBs
Matt Ryan: After heating up from Week 7 through Week 12, scoring at least 14.6 fantasy points in every game, Ryan has really dropped off over the last two weeks, scoring just 13.9 fantasy points in the two games combined. Granted, those games were against two of the top defenses in the league, and this week is against the Bucs, who have now allowed 20 passing scores through 13 games. While that’s a decent number, the one that jumps out is the 3,638 yards they’ve allowed through the air, which is the most in the league. These two played just a couple of weeks ago when Ryan threw for 317 yards and a touchdown, though that game was at home and this one isn’t. It didn’t really matter last year, though, as Ryan threw for 344 yards and four touchdowns while in Tampa Bay. Oddly enough, Ryan has played much better on the road this year, averaging 268 yards and 1.7 touchdowns, compared to just 238 yards and 1.0 touchdowns at home. The only concern is that the Bucs have allowed just 16.7 points per game at home, which ranks fifth in the league. With that being said, both these teams know each other very well, so it’s unlikely that anything shocking will happen. Consider Ryan a low-end QB1 who should have a solid floor because the Bucs cannot seem to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

Jameis Winston: The box scores may look good, but Winston hasn’t played very well this year. He’s got plenty of talent, but he continues to make questionable decisions and refuses to take a sack even when he should. The Falcons have been able to generate a sack on 6.9 percent of dropbacks, which is the 11th-highest rate in the league, so Winston is likely to make some more bad decisions here this week. Still, the Falcons have been a bend-but-don’t-break defense this season, allowing at least 11.9 fantasy points to every quarterback, but just one quarterback to score more than 20.5 fantasy points, and that was Russell Wilson. In his matchups against the Falcons last year, Winston totaled 281 yards and four touchdowns in the first game, and then 261 yards and three touchdowns in the second game, so he has a good history against what is a very similar defense. Because we are envisioning the Falcons putting up points on the Bucs defense, it’s easy to see a scenario where Winston throws the ball 35-plus times en route to a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 performance.

RBs
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman: This matchup seems like a dream scenario for Freeman and Coleman, as the Bucs have really struggled this season, and in particular, over the last three weeks. In those games, they’ve allowed 309 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, which is just drool-worthy, but it gets even better for their projection when you know that Gerald McCoy may not play. He’s been a dominant defensive tackle for a long time and he’s apparently dealing with a partially torn biceps, which is likely to force him to miss this game and maybe the rest of the season. Freeman has been much better at home on the turf the last few seasons, but with McCoy unlikely, he must be played as an RB1. The Bucs have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns with him in the lineup. Coleman also presents opportunity as a flex-play in such a good matchup, though he’s a tad riskier than Freeman.

Doug Martin and Peyton Barber: It seems that the Bucs are going to go with Barber as the starter, though we’re unlikely to get confirmation prior to the time we have to decide. Martin fumbled the ball away at a crucial point of the game last week when they were in field goal range, forcing him to the bench. From that point, Dirk Koetter decided to go with Barber, who has been playing great as of late. He’s now totaled 160 yards on 35 carries (4.57 YPC) the last two weeks, and we know he can get it done on the goal-line, as he scored two touchdowns in their Week 12 game against the Falcons. He should get the start, so I’m approaching it as such. The Falcons have allowed just one running back to total more than 76 yards against them, and have allowed just five rushing touchdowns on the year, with two of them going to Barber. He may have been an oversight to their defense in that game, but I promise that he won’t be this time. Consider him a semi-decent RB3, but one I’d vote against if you’re torn between two players close in the rankings simply because there is some risk with Martin and the game-script. Martin is currently unplayable outside of the deepest of leagues.

WRs
Julio Jones: You remember the last time Jones played against the Bucs, right? You know, the game he went off for 253 yards and two touchdowns. Let’s be clear and say that you shouldn’t expect that to happen again. However, it’s not as if this matchup got bad overnight – it didn’t. The Bucs are still trotting out Brent Grimes, Vernon Hargreaves, and Robert McClain, the trio that has allowed 19 top-24 performances this year, including four top-three performances. He’s going to see the majority McClain, a 5-foot-9 cornerback who has allowed a ridiculously-high 77 percent catch rate in coverage. Ryan Smith has also played a bit while Hargreaves has missed time, and even he has allowed five touchdowns on 51 targets in coverage. Jones is an elite WR1 and one that you should play pretty aggressively in DFS.

Mohamed Sanu: While Julio was going bonkers last time they played, Sanu quietly had a good game as well. If you don’t recall, he threw one of Jones’ touchdowns, and also added eight catches for 64 yards. If the Bucs decide to sell-out to stop Jones, Sanu could have a big week, as his matchup against Hargreaves was already a great one, but he’s been out since Week 10, which means we may see McClain slide into the slot. That would put Ryan Smith on Jones, and that’s… less than ideal for the Bucs. Just last week, Golden Tate was able to hang eight catches for 85 yards and a touchdown on the Bucs without Hargreaves, so don’t sleep on Sanu, who is a solid WR3 in his own right. He’s somewhat pricey, but can be at least considered for cash-games, and has tournament appeal.

Mike Evans: Nobody really has any idea what’s going on with Evans, as he wasn’t even shadowed by Darius Slay last week, but wound up with just two catches for 25 yards. Just how bad has Evans’ year been? He’s now sitting as the No. 26 wide receiver in standard leagues, right behind Cooper Kupp, and right in front of Demaryius Thomas and Jermaine Kearse. Yeah, it hasn’t been great. The last time they played, it was with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, but going back to last year against a similar Falcons secondary, Evans went for 5/99/1 in their first matchup and 11/150/2 in their second one. This feels a bit like Kareem Hunt, except for the fact that we know Evans is a bonafide stud who has finished as a top-10 wide receiver twice in his first three years. Call me crazy, but I’m not giving up on him. In fact, I’m likely to overstock on him in DFS this week, taking advantage of the low ownership. He hasn’t scored since Week 7, something that’s bound to change. There aren’t many players who come with 150-yard, two-touchdown upside, but Evans is one of them. He’s a high-end WR2 this week and one that I’d be playing, no matter the other options.

DeSean Jackson: Apparently Jackson was dealing with an illness last week that left him feeling less than 100 percent. On top of that, the Lions chose to use Darius Slay on him in coverage the majority of the day. It’s not often that’ll happen, but we don’t have to worry about any of that against the Falcons, as they don’t shadow, but rather play sides. Jackson will see the Falcons best cornerback Desmond Trufant the most, but Jackson doesn’t spend more than 45 percent at any one place on the field. Trufant isn’t unbeatable, either, as he’s allowed four touchdowns this season in his coverage, though just a 55 percent catch rate. He’s pretty fast, too, so I wouldn’t think Jackson is a must-target in DFS or anything, but we do expect this game to be somewhat high-scoring, making him a risk/reward WR4, though he’s now finished with 41 yards or less in 8-of-13 games.

TEs
Austin Hooper: It’s been a rough year for the sophomore tight end, who has now dropped six passes on just 56 targets. He’s supposed to be the big athletic tight end they can lean on in the red zone, but dropping passes is the easiest way for them to go elsewhere. After seeing six or more targets in 5-of-6 games from Week 4-10, Hooper has averaged just 3.8 targets over the last four games. The Bucs have allowed just three top-12 performances against them this year, and Hooper wasn’t a part of them. He finished with three catches for 38 yards in their first meeting on five targets. Knowing that they have allowed just three tight end touchdowns this year, it’s easy to fade Hooper.

O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate: There seems to be a changing of the guard in Tampa Bay, as Brate has now seen his snaps dip over each of the last four games. From 62 percent in Week 11, to 48 percent in in Week 12, 42 percent in Week 13, and then a season-low 35 percent in Week 14. Meanwhile, Howard has been getting more and more work. He’s played at least 72 percent of the snaps in each of the last three weeks, and is now the primary tight end. He’s seen at least four targets in three of the last four games, including a season-high six targets in Week 14. Even better, here’s Howard’s yardage in games he sees at least four targets: 63, 98, 52, 52, 54. It’s safe to say he’s been extremely efficient with the work he gets. The Falcons really struggled against tight ends in 2016, but have been one of the better teams against them in 2017, allowing just 47.2 yards per game to them, with three touchdowns on the season. Because of the tougher matchup, he’s outside of the TE1 range, but not by much. He can be considered for those who stream the position, and offers tournament upside as someone who’s scored five touchdowns on just 38 targets. As for Brate, he’s just a touchdown-or-bust TE2, and not one I’d aim to play unless we see massive changes.

Subscribe: iTunes | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.