Now that the NFL Draft has come and gone, we have plenty of things to think about over the next few months. Will Michael Gallup make it into the starting lineup for Week 1? Is it possible that no rookie quarterback will be starting until mid-season? Can Devontae Booker hold off the rookie Royce Freeman?
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These are just some of the questions we’ll have as we lead up to the 2018 season, though we should have a good idea about most of them. Because of that, I’ve gone through and generated my early 2018 fantasy football rankings. They are surely going to change as we learn more about who is where on the depth charts, but this is a good time to start. It’s always interesting to see where the ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings) is in comparison, because I know that’s where I can find value in best-ball leagues. Let’s take a look at some of the players I’m higher/lower on than most.
Quarterbacks I’m Higher On
Philip Rivers (LAC)
QB10: 4 spots higher
Facts are facts and Rivers has now finished as a top-12 quarterback in eight of the last 10 seasons. He’s got one of the better offensive lines in football and his weapons have never been better than they are right now. There’s not enough love for the boring low-end QB1.
Matt Ryan (ATL)
QB12: 5 spots higher
The addition of Calvin Ridley bumped Ryan’s stock up just a bit, enough to move him ahead of guys like Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo. Ryan isn’t going to be the top fantasy quarterback that he was in 2016, but he’s someone you should be happy to roster if you’re waiting until the late rounds to draft your quarterback.
Mitch Trubisky (CHI)
QB18: 8 spots higher
If I’m being honest, I tempered expectations when doing Trubisky’s projections, which made me think I’d be lower than the consensus. It’s clear that not enough people have taken notice to the effect that a young offensive-minded head coach can do for a quarterback. Trubisky has been surrounded by a ton of weapons and has extremely underrated mobility, something that fantasy footballers should covet.
Quarterbacks I’m Lower On
Jared Goff (LAR)
QB16: 3 spots lower
The Rams became a better football team this offseason, though that will actually hurt Goff who may see his attempts decline in 2018. His ridiculous efficiency should come down a tad as well, now that there’s a full year of tape on the Rams offense under Sean McVay. It’s not that Goff is a bad fantasy quarterback, but he’s overpriced right now for what he’s going to offer.
Dak Prescott (DAL)
QB19: 4 spots lower
If you would’ve asked me a month ago, I would’ve told you that Prescott was being undervalued. A lot has changed since then, as the Cowboys released Dez Bryant, didn’t draft a wide receiver in the first-round, and then had Jason Witten retire mid-draft. The Cowboys are going to rely on Ezekiel Elliott more than ever.
Tyrod Taylor (CLE)
QB25: 3 spots lower
I’m usually a big proponent of drafting Taylor in fantasy football, but this has more to do with him potentially losing the job to Baker Mayfield at some point. If you could guarantee he’d start the entire season, he’d probably rank inside my top 15 quarterbacks. As of now, I’m projecting Mayfield to take over for the final six games, which really hurts Taylor’s projection.
Running Backs I’m Higher On
Jerick McKinnon (SF)
RB16: 4 spots higher
I actually believed the 49ers were going to draft a running back, but after seeing them stick it out with McKinnon, Matt Breida, and Joe Williams, I’m getting McKinnon as a borderline RB1 in fantasy drafts. Regardless of how you view a running back from a talent standpoint, touches are what matter and the 49ers made him the third-highest paid running back to get the majority of theirs.
Tarik Cohen (CHI)
RB34: 10 spots higher
Another team that didn’t add a running back in the draft was the Bears, who will be riding the shoulders of Jordan Howard and Cohen. While they did add quite a bit of receiving talent to the roster, Cohen is a movable chess piece that Matt Nagy can have some fun with. Cohen was able to finish as the RB30 last year despite having the vanilla John Fox as his head coach.
Kenneth Dixon (BAL)
RB48: 16 spots higher
Don’t forget about the guy that the Ravens were extremely high on coming into last year before he suffered a season-ending injury. I’m not projecting him to take the starting job back immediately, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he worked his way back into fantasy relevance at some point. The one-year contract for Alex Collins doesn’t scream confidence.
Running Backs I’m Lower On
Derrick Henry (TEN)
RB23: 8 spots lower
I was all aboard the Henry is an RB1 in 2018 bandwagon… until they signed Dion Lewis to a four-year, $20 million deal. It signified that they don’t want Henry handling much more than he did last year and that they still don’t trust him in pass-protection. He’s going to be very touchdown dependent and a volatile fantasy option because of that.
Jay Ajayi (PHI)
RB25: 6 spots lower
If you haven’t learned by now that the Eagles want to use a timeshare, you never will. Not only did Corey Clement come on as the year went on, but the Eagles also re-signed Darren Sproles and will have 2017 fourth-round draft pick Donnel Pumphrey back in the mix. Ajayi will have games that make you want him, but he’s also going to have games with less than 10 touches.
Carlos Hyde (CLE)
RB32: 10 spots lower
He’s someone I was targeting in best-ball leagues as a low-end RB2 just a couple weeks ago, as I do believe the Browns are going to be run-heavy in 2018. While that’s still going to be the case, them drafting Nick Chubb in the second-round was the worst-case scenario for Hyde (outside of them taking Saquon Barkley). Chubb is essentially a younger version of Hyde, but faster. I still believe Hyde gets 10-12 touches per game, but it’s not enough to crack the top-30 running backs.
Wide Receivers I’m Higher On
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
WR13: 6 spots higher
I’m done second-guessing Fitzgerald. He’s a stud year-in and year-out, and he’s got the best quarterback situation he’s had in a while with both Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen. The Cardinals lost Jaron Brown and John Brown, but didn’t do much to replace them outside of Christian Kirk, who plays the same position out of the slot that Fitzgerald does. Fitzgerald should once again see targets in the 130-150 range. He hasn’t finished outside the top-18 receivers since 2014.
Devante Parker (MIA)
WR27: 11 spots higher
Not only was Parker on his way to a potential breakout last year before getting hurt (had 18 receptions for 230 yards and a touchdown through three games), but he’s now in an offense without Jarvis Landry. That frees up a whole lot of targets and his biggest competition for red zone targets is a rookie tight end.
Jamison Crowder (WAS)
WR30: 9 spots higher
After the Redskins traded for Alex Smith, I knew I’d be high on Crowder. My interest only grew fonder when the Redskins brought in Paul Richardson, who should help stretch the field and open things underneath for Crowder. Smith doesn’t like throwing into tight windows, which should force him to shy away from Josh Doctson.
Wide Receivers I’m Lower On
Tyreek Hill (KC)
WR18: 7 spots lower
For those expecting Patrick Mahomes, who has started one NFL game, to produce a top-10 running back, a top-two tight end, and potentially two top-30 wide receivers, I think you’ll be left disappointed. No matter how you feel about Sammy Watkins‘ or Hill’s skill-set, you can’t argue that bringing Watkins did anything but hurt Hill’s potential. He saw just 105 targets last year in an offense without Watkins. He’s going to be extremely hit-or-miss in fantasy football.
Brandin Cooks (LAR)
WR23: 7 spots lower
Similar to Sammy Watkins last year, Cooks is going to the Rams behind the curve of everyone else. He does have a leg-up on Watkins, though, as he’s been working out with Jared Goff this offseason, something Watkins was never able to do. Still, if we’re projecting slightly lower pass attempts for the Rams offense, who do we start taking targets away from to give 100-plus targets to Cooks? I just think it’s unrealistic to expect more than 100-105 targets.
Devin Funchess (CAR)
WR39: 11 spots lower
It seems that everyone is forgetting how much Greg Olsen means to this offense and why Funchess got the volume he did last year. While he did a solid job, the Panthers felt the need to draft a wide receiver with their first-round pick, and one who’ll play the underneath possession-style role, eliminating Funchess’ volume. He’s going to be a lesser version of Kelvin Benjamin going forward.
Tight Ends I’m Higher On
Hunter Henry (LAC)
TE4: 2 spots higher
It’s official, Antonio Gates is no longer blocking the targets that’ll be going to Henry. We’re talking about a guy who scored 12 touchdowns over the last two seasons while in a part-time role, so it’s obvious that he and Philip Rivers have a connection. In what’s projected to be one of the higher-scoring offenses, you’ll want Henry on your side.
Trey Burton (CHI)
TE10: 3 spots higher
Going from Doug Pederson’s offense to Matt Nagy’s is going to be a treat for Burton who already knows 95 percent of the playbook. Over the last three years, the Andy Reid/Pederson/Nagy offenses have averaged 156.6 targets to tight ends. That number would’ve ranked as the fourth-most in the NFL last year and the Bears wasted no time acquiring him in free agency.
Ben Watson (NO)
TE18: 9 spots higher
I don’t know if everyone forgot about Watson’s 2015 season with Drew Brees, but this is your friendly reminder that he caught 74 passes for 825 yards and six touchdowns that season. Sure, he’s older now and there’s better talent on the team, but that doesn’t mean he should be non-existent. They didn’t draft a tight end which kind of tells you all you need to know.
Tight Ends I’m Lower On
Evan Engram (NYG)
TE6: 2 spots lower
Everything that could have went Engram’s way last year in terms of targets, it did. Both Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall were place on I.R. early in the season, while Sterling Shepard was in and out of the lineup with injuries. Not only are Beckham Jr. and Shepard back to full health, but the Giants just spent the No. 2 pick on Saquon Barkley, who is essentially another receiver. Engram is still likely to be a TE1, but I’m not touching him where he’s being drafted.
Eric Ebron (IND)
TE20: 4 spots lower
It’s very possible that Ebron ends up higher in my final rankings, provided Andrew Luck is looking like the old Andrew Luck in the preseason. He targets the tight end position an awful lot, so despite Ebron’s lack of development, he can be a player on a team that has serious wide receiver problems.
David Njoku (CLE)
TE22: 7 spots lower
I’m a big fan of Njoku the player, but I don’t see where or how he finishes as a top-15 tight end with all the other talent on the roster. Not only are the Browns going to be run-heavy, but they need to find a way to keep Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon, and Corey Coleman involved. Because of that, his targets aren’t going to be where they need to be.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
