Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 58.5
Line: KC by 6.0
QBs
Andy Dalton: It appears that missing John Ross has had an effect on the offense overall, as Dalton went from throwing 299.3 yards per game with 11 touchdowns the first four games with Ross, to just 238.5 yards per game and three touchdowns the last two games without him. The Chiefs defense has been better the last three weeks, allowing just two passing touchdowns in the three games combined, though they have still allowed an average of 26.7 points per game, so where did the points come from? Well, they’ve allowed six rushing touchdowns in those games, so it’s kind of a pick your poison thing with them. The cornerback trio of Kendall Fuller, Orlando Scandrick, and Steven Nelson have played much better than anyone expected them to, though none of them have the talent to hang with A.J. Green. They’ve now allowed 44 plays of 15-plus rushing yards/20-plus receiving yards, which is the most in the NFL (next closest team is at 37). They’ve also allowed three 400-yard games this year, so the yardage is there. Going through Dalton’s career, he’s actually averaged almost a full point per game more on the road, though Arrowhead Stadium has been a tough place to play over the last three years. Over the last 26 games, the Chiefs have allowed 17.0 points per game at home, while they’ve allowed 23.3 points per game on the road over the last 27 games. Knowing that’s a 53-game sample size, there’s got to be something to it. It’s still hard to avoid a quarterback in a game with a 58.5-point over/under. He’s definitely on the QB1 radar, but I think there’s better options in cash games.
Patrick Mahomes: After two lackluster games against the Broncos and Jaguars, Mahomes got back on track last week throwing four touchdowns. He’s thrown four interceptions over the last two weeks, but that should have been expected all along with a gunslinger like Mahomes. His receivers are gaining plenty of separation, too, as he’s thrown into tight coverage just 11.3 percent of the time. Because of that, it’s quite odd to see his completion percentage rank 19th in the league, though he does throw the ball down the field quite a bit. Against the Bengals, the Chiefs need to figure out what area they want to exploit, because there’ve been four quarterbacks to throw for 319-plus yards against them, but their run-defense has been crushed the last four weeks while missing defensive tackle Ryan Glasgow. The only quarterback who failed to post top-13 numbers against them was Ryan Tannehill, who was apparently playing through a shoulder injury. There’s little reason to doubt Mahomes in this matchup, as he’s a high-end QB1 whose upside can be capped by the run-game, but that’ll be up to Andy Reid. If there’s one thing that could hurt, is that he’s got two offensive lineman nicked-up and questionable for this game.
RBs
Joe Mixon: It’s definitely a week to be excited to put Mixon in your lineup, as the Chiefs have allowed 11 running backs to rack up at least 11.8 PPR points against them. Guys, we’ve played just six games. Mixon is a one-man wrecking crew in that backfield, as Giovani Bernard expects to remain out and Mark Walton is just there to give him a breather when he needs it. We’ve seen four running backs total 22 or more PPR points in their matchups against them, and there’s little reason for them to change their ways, as they’re 5-1 on the year. I mean, there’s been eight different running backs to score a touchdown against them. Mixon himself hasn’t totaled less than 18.4 PPR points outside of his game against the Ravens, who essentially don’t allow big performances to running backs. Even if the Chiefs work to slow down the run-game, Mixon has seen 11 targets over the last two weeks and is one of the best receiving backs in the league (so underrated). There’ve been seven different running backs who’ve totaled at least 30 yards through the air against them, including 102 to Melvin Gordon, 87 to Austin Ekeler, and 69 to T.J. Yeldon. There’re so many avenues to success for Mixon this week in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game. He’s a gamescript-proof RB1 this week.
Kareem Hunt: their run-defense has been crushed the last four weeks while missing defensive tackle Ryan Glasgow. He went down against the Panthers, and since that time, they’ve allowed 504 rushing yards on 91 carries (5.54 yards per carry) and three touchdowns in four games. We thought the addition of Vontaze Burfict would help, but James Conner tagged them for over 100 yards and two touchdowns. They’re also going to be missing linebacker Nick Vigil, who’s been one of the highlights of their defense early-on. Hunt himself has picked up his game the last three weeks, racking up 454 total yards and three touchdowns in the process. He’s also been much more involved in the passing-game, as he’s seen 12 targets in those three games after seeing just three targets in the first three games. Playing at home in a game with a 58.5-point over/under as a six-point favorite? Sign me up.
WRs
A.J. Green: We talked about Green’s struggles against Joe Haden last week, so it wasn’t too shocking to see him finish without a touchdown last week. He’s still been phenomenal and has seen at least eight targets in every game, while racking up at least 15.5 PPR points in 5-of-6 games. He’s going to see a mix of all three Chiefs cornerbacks, though he’ll see the most of Steven Nelson, who has played better than expected this year. He’s still allowed more than 100 yards in his coverage in two different games, but has allowed just one touchdown on 46 targets. He was the one tackling Josh Gordon and taking the pass interference call last week to ensure he didn’t catch a long touchdown pass. The Chiefs have allowed 10 different wide receivers total at least 50 yards, though just two of them to top 81 yards. Both receivers were slot-heavy guys (Keenan Allen, JuJu Smith-Schuster), which is not quite what Green is, but he’s seen 20 slot targets this season, which top-20 in the league. He’s an elite WR1 play who is head and shoulders above Nelson’s talent level.
Tyler Boyd: Through six weeks, Boyd currently sits as the No. 13 wide receiver in PPR formats, ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans. He’s totaled the 13th-most targets, 16th most yards, and 8th-most touchdowns, so he’s getting it done across the board. He’s going to match-up with Kendall Fuller this week, who is supposed to be the Chiefs best cornerback. He’s not unbeatable, though, as he’s allowed a 72.2 percent catch rate in his coverage, including 13.5 yards per reception, which is abnormally high for a slot cornerback. The two best performances against the Chiefs have been Keenan Allen and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who both run the majority of their routes in the slot. With teams averaging 45.0 pass attempts against the Chiefs, it’s safe to say that Boyd should be in lineups as a WR2 this week.
John Ross: If you’re looking for some cheaper action to get a piece of this game in DFS, Ross could be a hail mary option, though he does have the toughest cornerback matchup with Orlando Scandrick. You’re going to be relying on one play to get it done, and Scandrick has 4.3-second speed, so it’s going to be tough, but Scandrick has allowed two touchdowns in his coverage this year. When the Bengals are projected to throw the ball near 50 times, he’ll get his chance. You’ll want to make sure he’s active, but he appears on track to play.
Tyreek Hill: Even though he’s had just three games over eight standard fantasy points, he sits as the No. 1 receiver in standard leagues. It just goes to show that when he “booms,” he really booms. Because of that, he owns two of the five biggest games for wide receivers this year, while Michael Thomas is the only other receiver who has two top-20 performances. The Bengals have now allowed four different wide receivers total more than 100 yards against them and they don’t have a cornerback with even close to the speed of Hill. They haven’t used William Jackson to shadow and rightfully so, as he hasn’t played particularly well to this point. Hill will see a mix of all three cornerbacks and should be in lineups as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 who will have some speed bumps from time-to-time, but will win you weeks other times. It would also help if the Bengals were missing safety Shawn Williams for this game, who is considered questionable with a concussion.
Sammy Watkins: In the two games that Hill has completely gone off, Watkins has averaged just 2.5 receptions for 19.5 yards, clearly taking a backseat to the show. In the other three full games he’s played, he’s averaged 5.7 receptions for 77.7 yards. The Bengals aren’t shadowing anyone, so just like Hill, he’ll see a mixture of all three cornerbacks. Both William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick have played average football at best, but slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard is almost surely out this week, meaning they’ll turn to 2016 undrafted free agent Tony McRae in the slot, a cornerback who’s played exactly 70 snaps in the NFL. Watkins and Hill both run roughly 40 percent of their routes from the slot, so it’s tough to say which player will benefit most. Watkins should continue to be plugged-in as an upside WR3.
TEs
C.J. Uzomah: It was good to see Uzomah come through in a good matchup last week, totaling six catches for 54 yards on seven targets. With Dalton throwing the ball 42 times, that’s a 16.7 percent target share, though it helped that John Ross was out the last two weeks. While the Steelers were a good matchup, the Chiefs might be even better. Through six games, they’ve allowed four top-12 tight end performances and have yet to hold a starting tight end out of the top-20 performers. Safety Eric Berry has been out all year and they’ve now been without Eric Murray for nearly two games, which leaves a void at the safety position. The Chiefs may also be missing pass-rusher Justin Houston, which means Uzomah may not be held in to block very much. He’s on the streaming radar as a high-end TE2 this week and he’s available in a lot of leagues.
Travis Kelce: It appeared that Bill Belichick decided that Kelce was the biggest threat to them once again last week and it bit him in the butt as Hill went off for three touchdowns. They still won so it’s hard to argue, but the bottom line is that Kelce paid the price, totaling 5/61/0. He’s still seen at least eight targets in each of the last five games, and will have a plus matchup against the Bengals, who are seemingly without safety Shawn Williams. When he was ejected in the Week 1 game against the Colts, we saw Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle combine for 11 catches, 111 yards, and a touchdown. Last week, without him for nearly half the game, they allowed Vance McDonald seven catches for 68 yards. You’re starting Kelce as an elite TE1 and there’s no reason to think he’ll fail to deliver.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
Total: 55.0
Line: ATL by 5.5
QBs
Eli Manning: It’s always tough trusting someone like Manning, who has been horrific this season. While getting used to a new offense takes time, it’s not getting much better. He’s been under constant duress, but it doesn’t help that he has absolute zero mobility and cannot maneuver in the pocket. His cure could come in the form in the Falcons this week, as they’ve now allowed their opponents at least 29 points in each of their last four games. While some of it has been rushing, the majority of it has come through the air. Since losing Keanu Neal and Deion Jones, they’ve allowed every quarterback they’ve played at least 250 yards and three touchdowns, including 335 or more yards to four of the five. They’ve shifted around their defensive backs to fill needs due to injury and needless to say, it hasn’t worked. This is the classic really bad meets really bad, but something has to give. Considering the Giants will have had 11 days to prepare for this game, I’ll take the Manning side and call him a decent QB2 who’s a legitimate streaming option this week.
Matt Ryan: Who would’ve known that all it would take for Ryan to be an elite fantasy quarterback was for a few defensive stars on his own team go down. He’s second to only Patrick Mahomes on the season, throwing 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions, while averaging 325.8 yards per game. The Giants will be one of the tougher tests he’s had this year, as they’ve held 4-of-6 quarterbacks outside the top-15 options for the week. The question, though, is whether or not they play on doing what they did last week with Janoris Jenkins, as he did not shadow Alshon Jeffery for whatever reason, leading Carson Wentz to hit him eight times with two of them being touchdowns. That matters because we may have a less-than-100-percent Ridley out there, while Jones would see Eli Apple and B.W. Webb at times. With a lack of a run-game (similar to Drew Brees at the start of the year), Ryan will post fantasy numbers in any matchup, though this one may not be as big as they’ve been to this point. He’s still a rock-solid QB1 in this game.
RBs
Saquon Barkley: Is he the best running back in the game? While many would make the point for Gurley, we should look back to how much Gurley struggled under Jeff Fisher back in 2016. Barkley plays in just as bad of an offense as that one, but he’s overcoming that seemingly every week. He’s only six games into his career and he’s already on all-time highlight reels. The Falcons have allowed every starting running back at least 18.6 PPR points. Let me repeat that… there hasn’t been one starting running back who’s totaled less than 18.6 PPR points against them this year, including four 25-plus point games. The best part is that it’s not in just one facet of the game. They’ve allowed 4.73 yards per carry, six rushing touchdowns, 53 receptions (!!!!) for 425 yards, and two receiving touchdowns. There isn’t a reason to bench Barkley, like ever. This is a week to ask yourself why you’d keep him out of any DFS lineup, as he’s about to go off.
Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith: Now that we know Devonta Freeman isn’t coming back for the remainder of the season, we can try to accurately predict the timeshare between these two well in advance. Earlier this week on Twitter I said that I viewed Coleman as a high-end RB2 for the rest of the season, while Smith is a low-end RB3/flex option. Many said Coleman hasn’t been good enough for that ranking, but attaching the lead running back in a high-scoring offense is never a bad thing. Coleman dealt with some injuries earlier this year but appears to be 100 percent now. Still, his 3.7 yards per carry trumps that of Smith, who sits at 3.2 yards per carry, though his three touchdowns have made him appear like the better fantasy option. Trust me when I say Coleman is the back to own. This game has an over/under of 55 points and the Giants have allowed at least one running back touchdown in every game, including three to Alvin Kamara back in Week 4. They did lose starting linebacker Ray-Ray Armstrong to injured reserve last week, so it’s another ding to a somewhat weak linebacker corps. Coleman should be considered a decent RB2 play this week who may not have tournament-winning upside, but he should come with a high floor. Smith is going to be mixed-in, though he’s clearly second in line for touches. I mean, there’s been just one game he’s totaled more than 10 touches, and it’s not as if Freeman wasn’t out for four of those six games. He’s still in the RB3 conversation with four teams on bye, but don’t assume he’s the better play in this backfield.
WRs
Odell Beckham Jr: When you make someone the highest paid wide receiver in NFL history, you are kind of stuck making him happy, otherwise it’ll bury your franchise. Beckham is partially at fault here as well, because I’ve seen him run routes for four years now, and I know he can do better than he has. I want to see him run routes the way he did against Josh Norman back in the day. His matchup this week will be a prime opportunity for him to break-out of the slump, as the Falcons have moved their best cornerback Desmond Trufant into the slot, while Robert Alford and rookie Isaiah Oliver have manned the perimeter. On average, they’ve allowed 182.3 yards per game to wide receivers, including 100 or more to three different receivers, and the 11 touchdowns they’ve allowed to them is the most in the NFL. If you don’t buy Beckham before this Monday night game, your buying window will slam shut.
Sterling Shepard: He’s definitely the No. 3 option in the offense behind Beckham and Barkley, but he may actually shift to the No. 4 option this week with Engram set to return. The Falcons have shifted Desmond Trufant into the slot an moved Brian Poole to safety, which is a downgrade for Shepard’s matchup. Now, to be fair, the slot is an entirely different matchup and it’s the reason most perimeter or shutdown cornerbacks don’t travel into the slot. Since making the move, Trufant has allowed 8/93/1 on 11 targets, so it’s fair to say he’s not shutting anyone down. Still, with the way Manning has been playing, how much can we really trust his No. 3 or No. 4 option? Shepard is talented enough to do some damage against this defense but shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than a WR3. There have been 14 wide receivers to finish as top-40 options against them, so Shepard should at least provide a solid floor.
Julio Jones: There’s no way to explain how improbable it is for Jones to be without a touchdown, yet still be a top-six wide receiver in fantasy through six weeks. The closest receiver on the fantasy leaderboard without a touchdown is Danny Amendola, who is all the way down at WR65. Jones’ floor has been out of this world, while his ceiling has yet to be tapped into. We have no idea what to expect this week, as the Giants had been using Janoris Jenkins in shadow coverage, but decided not to against Alshon Jeffery last week where he was able to pile-up eight catches for 74 yards and two touchdowns. If they don’t shadow him, Jones would have his way with the combination of B.W. Webb and Eli Apple, who are both subpar cornerbacks. And to be fair, Jenkins hasn’t been himself this year, allowing five touchdowns on 38 targets in coverage. By comparison, he allowed five touchdowns on 140 targets in the last two years combined, so he must not have returned the same player after having ankle surgery at the end of last year. There’s plenty of different outcomes for Jones here, but none where he’s not played. Get him into your lineups as a solid WR1 who’s going to start scoring at any time. Seriously, it shouldn’t shock you if he scores three touchdowns on his next 15 targets.
Calvin Ridley: After having to leave the game against the Bucs, Ridley had an MRI and was diagnosed with a bone bruise on his left ankle. It’s unsure whether or not he’ll be able to play this week, but I’m erring on the side of caution, as receivers like Ridley who rely on their superior route-running skills don’t play well through ankle injuries. On top of that, the Falcons have a bye next week, so the Falcons could decide it’s simply too risky. If they do say he’s playing by Sunday, he comes with additional risk even if the matchup is a solid one against Eli Apple. After playing well the first two weeks, Apple has returned to the player he was his first two years, allowing 13/180/0 on 19 targets in coverage the last two weeks. It’s really not a bad matchup for Ridley, but that ankle knocks him down into iffy WR3/4 territory. Update: Ridley got in a limited practice on Friday, which appears to be a good sign for his availability for Monday night’s game.
Mohamed Sanu: With Jones potentially dealing with Janoris Jenkins and Ridley dealing with an ankle injury, we could see even more Sanu in Week 7. Did you realize he’s scored at least 12.6 PPR points in each of the last four games, while Ridley and Jones have gotten theirs? He’s seen at least six targets in 4-of-6 games this year and has now scored in three of the last four games. The Giants have B.W. Webb covering the slot and that’s good news for Sanu. Webb has yet to been charged with a touchdown in coverage, but he’s allowed 15-of-22 passing for 166 yards, good enough for a 90.3 QB Rating. Believe it or not, that’s the best of his career, which should tell you a lot. While the Falcons don’t know what the Giants are going to do with Janoris Jenkins, they do know who Sanu will see. I’d consider him a WR3 who might score another touchdown this week. Update: Sanu has missed practice every day this week, so his hip injury may be worse than initially thought. If you plan on playing him, you may want to grab Justin Hardy off the waiver wire just to ensure you have a backup plan.
TEs
Evan Engram: After nearing a return last week, it appears Engram is going to be a full-go against the Falcons. This is a really good thing, as they’ve now allowed four top-12 tight end performances on the year. Just last week, they allowed both O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate find the end zone. With the Falcons secondary, you kind of get to pick your spots and knowing that Manning is lacking some confidence on his deep-ball, Engram may look even better to him in the short-area. While it’s always risky playing someone who’s coming off a multi-week injury, but when it comes to tight ends, we cannot afford to miss out on someone playing the Falcons. He’s a solid TE1 option for this game, provided we don’t hear anything negative about his health.
Austin Hooper: You’ve heard me tell you to play Hooper in each of the last two games and it’s worked out just as planned. This week, however, might not be another one. The Giants were a team who really struggled against tight ends last year, though they’ve apparently turned things around, allowing no starting tight end more than 44 yards against them. They played Zach Ertz last week and held him to six catches for 43 yards, though he did score the first tight end touchdown of the year against them. It does help that Ridley isn’t quite 100 percent, but the Falcons have done a good job attacking teams where they’re weak, and the Giants haven’t shown weakness against tight ends. He’s still on the streaming radar in a projected high-scoring game, but he’s not a must-start like he’s been the last two weeks.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 40.0
Line: DEN by 1.5
QBs
Case Keenum: We thought we might see Keenum get benched at halftime against the Rams, though they said he was being checked for a concussion. It’s only a matter of time before the Broncos have to take a look in the mirror and think, “each and every quarterback we’ve played in this system has been inconsistent.” Maybe it’s time to shake things up elsewhere? This isn’t likely to be the week where Keenum gets it right, either, as the Cardinals defense has now held each of the last four quarterbacks they’ve played to less than 7.0 yards per attempt. That’s included Mitch Trubisky, Russell Wilson, C.J. Beathard, and last week’s opponent Kirk Cousins. While you may look at that list and think it’s not all that impressive, Trubisky has averaged 8.26 yards per attempt in non-Cardinals games, Wilson has averaged 8.17 in non-Cardinals games, and Cousins has averaged 7.47 in non-Cardinals games. It’s not just that, either. They’ve also held those four quarterbacks to just three combined touchdowns, so it’s obvious the Cardinals are playing solid pass defense under Steve Wilks. Keenum now has an interception in six straight games and here’s his career numbers without the 2017 Vikings offense: 31 touchdowns, 28 interceptions. He’s just an emergency QB2 in 2QB leagues who’ll be without two of his starting offensive linemen.
Josh Rosen: Going into Minnesota isn’t an easy task for anyone, especially a rookie making his third career start, so we’ll just move forward. Rosen is offering a bit more verticality to the Cardinals offense, as both he and Sam Bradford have 50 completions on the season, though Rosen’s 626 yards easily trumps Bradford’s 400 yards. That’s because Rosen’s average depth of throw is 9.0 yards (ranks 7th among quarterbacks starting), while Bradford’s number was at just 6.2 yards (fourth-lowest in NFL). The Broncos passed on Rosen in the draft to take Bradley Chubb, so this would be one of those games where Rosen said, “they’ll pay,” right? Their pass defense finally stepped-up last week and held Jared Goff scoreless. He was the first quarterback this season who scored less than 15.2 fantasy points against them. The oddest part of it all was that the Broncos were without one of their starting cornerbacks for that game, so it could be just a one-off situation. Here’s the issue for Rosen, though. He isn’t going to have much time to do anything against the Broncos pass-rush, who will have Bradley Chubb and Von Miller coming after him. He’s also missing one of his starting guards, and the other one (Justin Pugh) is playing through a broken hand. Knowing he’s still yet to have a game with more than 180 yards and a touchdown, you can find a better streaming option.
RBs
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: It’s fair to say that nobody knows what’s going on in this backfield, as we went from just five to nine carries for Freeman in Weeks 5 and 6, while Lindsay saw his numbers dip from 12 carries to just four last week. For whatever reason, they’ve averaged just 23.3 carries per game as a team, which ranks 21st in the NFL. These two running backs should be getting more touches, especially this week against a Cardinals defense that’s allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Their opponents have averaged a massive 34.3 rushing attempts per game, which leads the NFL, as no other team allows more than 29.7 carries per game. They’ve now allowed a combined 10 touchdowns to running backs, so it’s possible we see both Lindsay and Freeman find the end zone this week. There’s just one issue, however. Their Pro Bowl left guard Ron Leary went down with a torn Achilles last week, which is a massive blow to their offensive line. The Vikings have had plenty of offensive line problems but were able to push through that against the Cardinals last week for 172 yards on 27 carries, so you should still feel semi-confident using Freeman as a low-end RB2, while Lindsay can be considered a high-end RB3.
David Johnson: With the way the Cardinals have handled Johnson this season, it wouldn’t shock me if they “disciplined” him for his second lost fumble in three games last week. While he’s averaged just 3.1 yards per carry in the process, he’s now scored four rushing touchdowns in the three games that Rosen has started, so Rosen opening up the offense has paid dividends. In fact, there’s just one game this season where Johnson hasn’t scored a touchdown and that was against the Rams back in Week 2. If the Broncos defense has told us anything the last few weeks, it’s that they can be run on with ease. After allowing Todd Gurley 208 yards in Week 6 and Isaiah Crowell 219 yards in Week 5, the Broncos became the first team to allow back-to-back 200-yard rushers. It’s a major difference from the team they’ve been the last few years, but even going back to Week 4, they had allowed Kareem Hunt to rack-up a season-high 121 rushing yards, so there’s clearly a trend here. Playing on a short week after a battle against the Rams, they could have even less gas in the tank than usual. Consider Johnson a middling RB1 in what’s projected to be a low-scoring game.
WRs
Emmanuel Sanders: If you’re looking for a matchup the Broncos should exploit this week, it’s the one Sanders has. He’ll match-up with Budda Baker, the converted safety who’s attempting to cover the slot and failing miserably at it. It’s not something that just started this season, either, as he struggled in coverage his rookie season as well. On 72 career targets in coverage, he’s allowed 56 receptions for 617 yards and three touchdowns. Of the 34 passes that have gone his direction this year, just five of them have hit the ground. When targeting Sanders, Keenum has a 108.2 QB Rating, so there’s little reason to think he’ll stop targeting him when his job is on the line. Sanders has at least seven targets in 5-of-6 games, which means he should have at least six receptions in this matchup, right? Put him into lineups as a WR2 and expect results.
Demaryius Thomas: He played a solid game last week, though the targets have been getting thinner as the weeks go on. He’s now seen just 22 targets over the last four games (5.5 per game), a far cry from the 21 targets he saw in the first two weeks. Most will think that he’s going to see Patrick Peterson all game, but that’s not always the case, as Peterson has been stuck at LCB for much of the season, which is where Thomas goes roughly 40 percent of the time. With that being said, the Cardinals did use Peterson in shadow situation with Stefon Diggs last week, so it’s possible they do the same with Thomas, though it’s no guarantee. It’s definitely enough to downgrade him, especially when Sanders has the best matchup on the field with Budda Baker. The Broncos do slide Thomas into the slot roughly 35 percent of the time, but that’s about half of what Sanders does. It’s hard to see both Thomas and Sanders post solid fantasy numbers against a Cardinals defense who have allowed just three wide receivers finish as top-30 options this year. You need to place your bets on one of them and Sanders is my pick, though Thomas remains on the low-end WR3 radar due to bye weeks.
Courtland Sutton: He’s been rising in the ranks as of late, but this is not a week to trust him. He’s going to see Patrick Peterson and Bene Benwikere all game, two cornerbacks who have been playing well through six games. As a duo, they’ve yet to allow a touchdown in their coverage. There’ve been just two wide receivers who’ve scored against the Cardinals this year, and they’ve both been slot receivers (Adam Thielen, Trent Taylor). Sutton is someone you should consider stashing on your bench, but he’s not someone to play this week.
Christian Kirk: During Rosen’s three starts, here’s his QB Rating when targeting each receiver: Kirk 137.0, Chad Williams 99.3, J.J. Nelson 75.7, Fitzgerald 46.4. Do you think that maybe he and Kirk have a connection? I’ve mentioned before that the two roomed together this offseason and they’ve shown chemistry early-on. He’s moving all over the formation, so there isn’t one cornerback he’ll see more than the others, but the most important thing is that Fitzgerald will certainly draw Chris Harris Jr, who is their best cornerback. There have been nine wide receivers who’ve totaled at least 13 PPR points against the Broncos and if there was one you’d put your bets on with the Cardinals, it’d have to be Kirk. He’s on the WR4 radar, though his upside is limited along with Rosen’s considering the lack of time they have to let plays develop.
Larry Fitzgerald: The Cardinals removed Fitzgerald off the injury report last week which is a positive sign. He also saw eight targets, though they didn’t amount to anything against the Vikings. While those are two positive factors, he’s drawing the worst matchup on the field this week. Chris Harris Jr. will be glued to his hip throughout the game, and that’s an issue for a player who’s failed to record 40 yards or a touchdown in the last five weeks. Harris himself hasn’t allowed more than 43 yards to a single slot receiver this year. There’s going to be better weeks for Fitzgerald, but this isn’t one where you should expect a resurgence.
TEs
Jeff Heuerman: With Jake Butt going to injured reserve, we knew that Heuerman would get the opportunity, and he has with 17 targets over the last three weeks. The issue is that he’s failed to take advantage of the opportunity, totaling just nine receptions for 98 scoreless yards in that time. He also played against the Chiefs, Rams, and Jets, three teams who’ve allowed some big performances to tight ends. The Cardinals have played a good group of tight ends that included Jordan Reed, Trey Burton, George Kittle, and Kyle Rudolph, yet they’ve allowed just two top-15 tight ends. The biggest performance they’ve allowed to this point was 48 yards and a touchdown to Reed, so there’s not much of a ceiling here for Heuerman. He’s not on the streaming radar for Week 7 despite his increased volume.
Ricky Seals-Jones: It was good to see Seals-Jones get back on the same page with Rosen last week, as he’s now seen 16 targets in Rosen’s three starts. He took advantage of a great matchup with the Vikings last week, and it’s not a bad one against the Broncos this week, either. They’ve had Justin Simmons covering tight ends the majority of time, and he’s struggled a bit, allowing 17-of-23 passing for 194 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage this year, though a lot of production did come in Week 1 against Will Dissly. He also played against Travis Kelce, so the overall numbers for the Broncos may be a tad misleading, though were the eighth-worst defense against tight ends last year. It’s likely to be a low-scoring game between the two, which isn’t ideal for tight ends in today’s game, as touchdowns are what make streamers. The lone touchdown he’s scored this year was on a defensive miscommunication where he was left uncovered. He’s on the middling TE2 radar, but he’s not a preferred streamer.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
