New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Total: 49.5
Line: NE by 3.5

QBs
Tom Brady: With all the pieces back in the offense, Brady and the Patriots offense looks to be back on track to where they usually are this time of year. He’s now thrown for 681 yards and four touchdowns over the last two weeks and has added a rushing touchdown in each of them. He’s played some seriously weak defenses in those games though, and now he goes on the road to play against the Bears, who are coming off an embarrassing loss in Miami. Prior to that game, the Bears hadn’t allowed a quarterback to finish with a top-20 performance in their last three games, rebounding from the loss to the Packers in Week 1. The pass-rush wasn’t able to do much last week, but we’ll call it an outlier in what’s been a dominant start to the season for their front-seven. Brady’s only been under pressure 26.8 percent of the time this year, a number that’s surely to rise in Week 7 against the Bears. While under pressure, Brady has thrown six touchdowns while being intercepted twice, posting an 87.2 QB Rating. Playing in Chicago hasn’t been kind to opposing offenses, though Brady is used to hostile environments. With all his weapons available, even a matchup against the Bears doesn’t knock him out of QB1 territory, though he’s not someone you should attack in DFS.

Mitch Trubisky: Here’s a list of quarterbacks who’ve posted a better QB Rating than Trubisky this year: Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff. That’s it. The list of quarterbacks I’d rather own than Trubisky in fantasy is much longer than that. 18 of them to be exact, as he’s currently my No. 19 quarterback for the remainder of the season. He hasn’t played as well as his numbers say he has, and it’s only a matter of time before the numbers catch up. It might not be this week, though, as the Patriots are coming off a three-game home stretch. They’ve only played two games on the road and in those games, they allowed Blake Bortles 377/4 and Matthew Stafford 262/2. Over their last five games, there’s just one where they’ve held the opposing quarterback less than 17.5 fantasy points (Ryan Tannehill). Knowing how much the run-game is struggling to move the ball, Trubisky and the Bears will have to keep up with Brady and company somehow, making him an upside high-end QB2 who’s on the streaming radar.

RBs
Sony Michel and James White: It’s now been three weeks without Rex Burkhead and it’s clear how the Patriots backfield is operating. Michel has averaged 22.3 carries per game in that span, while racking up over 100 total yards in every game with four touchdowns. Meanwhile, White has averaged 93.7 yards per game and scored three touchdowns, so these two can definitely co-exist. The Bears defense does pose an issue, though, as they’ve allowed just one team of running backs total more than 57 rushing yards against them. On top of that, they’ve allowed just 18 receptions for 128 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown to running backs through five games. Their pass-rush has made it difficult for teams to send their backs out on assignments, as they’ve been held in to block a lot more, but the Patriots use White in a different fashion than most running backs, lining him out wide or in the slot quite often. There’s been no running back who’s totaled more than 15 carries against the Bears, so it’s unlikely we see a massive game out of Michel here, as the duo of Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore were the first running backs who averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry this season. Consider that a one-off game where they struggled. Michel is more of an RB2 in this game than the RB1 he’s been the last three weeks. White is someone who may outproduce Michel and should remain on the RB2 radar due to the way they use him.

Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: It’s clear that Howard hasn’t worked very well in the west coast style offense, as he’s seen a declining role in each game this season. After playing over 70 percent of the snaps in each of the first two games, he’s played just 52 percent of the snaps over the last two games. He has simply looked like he’s playing in slow motion when compared to everyone else in the offense, and he’s starting to move towards a gamescript-dependent running back. The Patriots have allowed just one rushing touchdown on the season, which is the reason Kareem Hunt was the first running back to post more than 16 PPR points against them. It’s important to note that there’s been plenty of running backs with volume, as there have been four running backs who have carried the ball 15-plus times against them. Knowing he’s seen just two targets in the last two games, Howard is just a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 who is guaranteed nothing. The area to try and beat the Patriots is through the air, making Cohen an enticing option. He’s now touched the ball 32 times over the last two weeks, which has included 14 receptions on 17 targets. The Patriots have allowed 16 receptions for 168 yards and a touchdown to running backs over the last two weeks, which was highlighted by Nyheim Hines‘ 7/45/0 and Hunt’s 5/105/1 through the air. Cohen is looking more and more like an every-week RB2/3 player who can be compared to someone like Chris Thompson or a James White-lite.

WRs
Julian Edelman: While watching the Patriots offense work, there’s a few players who Brady trusts. You have Edelman, White, Gronkowski, and it appears Gordon is working his way into that conversation. Because of that trust, Edelman has seen 16 targets in his first two games back, totaling 11 receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown. The matchup against the Bears isn’t a great one, though, as he’ll see Bryce Callahan in coverage most of the time. He’s been one of the more underrated slot cornerbacks in football the last few seasons, allowing just a 77.1 QB Rating in his coverage. While some cornerbacks will have ups and downs, he’s been consistent in each season, never allowing higher than a 79.0 QB Rating in any one season. On 143 targets in coverage, he’s allowed just two touchdowns, so this isn’t going to be a week where Edelman goes crazy. But knowing how the Patriots move him around to create mismatches, they’ll match him on the perimeter with Prince Amukamara and Kyle Fuller as well. He should be in lineups as a high-end WR3, but it’s not a week to expect a massive performance.

Josh Gordon: After playing just 18 snaps in each of his first two games with the Patriots, Gordon played a massive 63-of-78 snaps, which ranked second on the team among wide receivers, only to Julian Edelman. He was also targeted nine times in the win over the Chiefs and though his stat sheet doesn’t show it, he had a big impact in the game. He’s now been targeted 15 times on 99 snaps with Brady, which amounts to one every 6.6 snaps played. To give you comparisons, here are the other wide receivers’ numbers: Edelman 7.4, Hogan 15.3, Dorsett 8.9, and Patterson 7.9. It’s clear that Gordon is becoming one of Brady’s favorite targets and that’ll amount to production in the long run. He’ll see Prince Amukamara on most of his routes, which is a plus for Gordon. While Amukamara’s numbers look solid on the year, the pass-rush hasn’t required him to stay in coverage very long. If the Bears leave Gordon one-on-one, you’re going to see more jump balls and it will ultimately result in production. I’d consider Gordon an upside WR3 this week in what’s perceived to be a tough matchup, though the Bears cornerbacks on the perimeter are their weak-point.

Chris Hogan: After leading the wide receivers in snaps the first five games, Hogan fell to third on the depth chart last week, totaling just 47-of-78 snaps. His previous season-low was 86.4 percent of the snaps, so the 60.3 percent in Week 6 is very noteworthy. As mentioned in the Gordon paragraph, Hogan has seen a target once every 15.3 snaps, while every other receiver on the team is averaging a target at least once every 8.9 snaps. Hogan will match-up with Kyle Fuller most of the day, who is the Bears best cornerback when it comes to tight coverage, though he lacks skill when it comes to contested balls to wide receivers. Do we think Brady forces the issue into a tightly covered Hogan this week after basically avoiding him for the first six games? It’s unlikely, making Hogan just a touchdown-dependent WR5 in fantasy leagues.

Allen Robinson: It’s going to be Stephon Gilmore against Robinson this week, which could be considered a bad thing, but the positive that comes out of it is that he won’t have a safety shaded his way very often. The Patriots often trust Gilmore on the opposing No. 1 wide receiver, while they have Jason McCourty with safety help on the other perimeter receiver. Gilmore has been solid in coverage this year, though he has allowed three touchdowns in his coverage. He’s a physical cornerback who has kept the play in front of him for the most part, allowing just one play over 20 yards in his coverage. He held Sammy Watkins in check last week, but the last tough matchup he had before that was back in Week 3 against the Lions when he allowed touchdown receptions to both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Robinson has seen more than seven targets just once this year, so he’s not an automatic lock-in every week type of player, but he’s still on the WR3 radar as someone who overcame a tough matchup against the Dolphins last week to produce 5/64/1. He’s not someone I’d suggest using in cash games this week, as Gilmore isn’t a walkover matchup. Update: Robinson is questionable for the game with a groin injury, so pay attention to his status Sunday morning. 

Taylor Gabriel: As we’ve talked about for the last few weeks in The Primer, Gabriel has been seeing a rock-solid target share this season. He’s now totaled at least five targets in every game and he’s racked up 214 yards and two touchdowns the last two weeks. Outside of being used on screen passes and end-arounds, Gabriel is being targeted down the field quite often, and he’s looked good in the process. While throwing to him, Trubisky has posted a 125.1 QB Rating, as there’ve been just seven of his 34 targets hit the ground. He’s going to have a tougher matchup against the Patriots this week, as Jason McCourty is the cornerback who’s likely in coverage, and he’s got the speed to match Gabriel. We saw Tyreek Hill tag them for 7/142/3 last week, though play-design was different and the Patriots were a bit more focused on slowing down Travis Kelce. All three touchdowns also came while Hill was in the slot, which is where Gabriel has played about 40 percent of the time. If the Patriots view Burton as a legitimate threat, they could decide to leave Gabriel one-on-one in McCourty’s coverage, which could be problematic for McCourty, as Gabriel has been phenomenal in man-coverage this year. He’s somewhat of a boom-or-bust WR4, but one who takes just one play to pay off.

Anthony Miller: The emergence of Gabriel has quieted the Miller crowd, though Miller did find his way into the end zone for the second time in three games. This is the type of game the Bears acquired Miller for, as the Patriots have been burned out of the slot for five touchdowns this year, including three to Tyreek Hill last week. Jonathan Jones is their slot cornerback who’s seen a target in his slot coverage once every 5.1 snaps, which ranks as the eighth-most among slot cornerbacks. He’s allowed 238 yards on those slot targets, which ranks as the fifth-most, so the matchup says the Bears should be attacking him with Miller. He’s still yet to see more than five targets in a game and he’s also failed to produce more than 35 yards, so it’s hard to say he’s anything more than a WR5, but he’s one of those guys who may be available on your waiver wire for an emergency start during bye weeks.

TEs
Rob Gronkowski: It’s gotten to the point where we are getting concerned with Gronkowski, as he’s failed to find the end zone in five straight games, which is the longest stretch of his career. You’d have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the only time he went four games without a touchdown, so we have to assume an eruption is coming, right? The Bears have now allowed a tight end touchdown in four straight games and that’s despite playing against Nick O’Leary, Cameron Brate, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Will Dissly. You can say Brate is good, but he’s far from an elite weekly play. But either way, the Bears have allowed four top-12 performances in their five games and that’s with none of those tight ends seeing more than five targets. Gronkowski needs to remain in season-long lineups and should be played heavily in DFS considering his price-drop. The crazy part is that despite Gronkowski scoring just one touchdown, he remains the No. 7 PPR tight end on the season.

Trey Burton: He’s now seen at least four targets in every game, but he’s also topped out at six targets which has limited his upside. But here’s the thing – he’s now scored in three of the last four games and is being heavily utilized when they get inside the 10-yard line, which is the reason he’s a top-12 PPR tight end. The Patriots made it a point to take away Travis Kelce last week (as they did last year), though it’s unlikely Burton gets the same respect. Prior to that game against Kelce, the Patriots had allowed Eric Ebron, Erik Swoope, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins top-12 performances, as they all scored touchdowns. This could be the week where we see Burton utilized a lot more in a game where we could see a season-high in attempts from Trubisky. There was just one quarterback who threw the ball less than 34 times against the Patriots, and that was Ryan Tannehill who was benched. Burton should be locked into lineups as a middling TE1 who might have one of his best games.

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts

Total: 43.5
Line: IND by 7.5

QBs
Derek Anderson: Rather than give us the gift that is Nathan Peterman, the Bills have announced Anderson as the starter. He’s a quarterback who’s thrown exactly 168 pass attempts since 2010, so it’s odd to say the least. I mean, why not just cut Peterman at that point? Whatever the case, Anderson was Cam Newton‘s backup in Carolina and threw seven touchdowns to five interceptions in that time. While the skill-position players weren’t good there, they aren’t any better in Buffalo, though he’s played with Kelvin Benjamin before. Oddsmakers have projected them for just 18 points, so it’s difficult so say Anderson is worth any consideration. He’s also got absolutely zero mobility, leaving him a sitting duck behind their offensive line.

Andrew Luck: Is it possible that we finally see a game where Luck throws the ball less than 40 times? Yes, it’s already happened once this season, but it’s a rare occasion. Luck is actually on pace to break the all-time record for pass attempts, as his current pace is 768 pass attempts. He’s obviously missing a lot of his weapons, though there’s a possibility that he starts getting some back soon. Against the Bills though, it’s tough to love him as a QB1 this week. Outside of the one game where Kirk Cousins threw 55 attempts against them (needed to as they fell behind big), no other quarterback has totaled more than 40 pass attempts against the Bills. Looking at their last four games, they’ve been a somewhat elite defense, allowing just 60 combined points to the Vikings, Packers, Titans, and Texans offenses. They’ve not allowed Cousins, Rodgers, Mariota, or Watson to finish with more than 17.0 fantasy points, and they’ve all finished outside the top-18 quarterbacks for the week. They’ve allowed just 6.2 yards per attempt to quarterbacks thus far, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in the NFL. Luck is just a middling QB2 this week whose volume likely won’t carry him through.

RBs
LeSean McCoy: There’s been somewhat of a resurgence from McCoy the last few weeks as the Bills defense continues to play well, enabling him to rack up 45 touches the last two weeks. The issue is that the Bills are slated to go back to Peterman this week, which is a downgrade for the entire offense. The Colts did get linebackers Darius Leonard and Anthony Walker back from injury in Week 6, holding the Jets running backs to a combined 99 yards on 29 carries (3.41 yards per carry) without a touchdown, so they’re obviously not quite as good of a matchup with those two in the lineup. They’ve allowed 4.22 yards per carry with Leonard out of the lineup, while allowing just 3.90 yards per carry with him in it. The Colts have allowed a lot of receptions to running backs, though, so it’d be wise for the Bills to get McCoy a bit more involved there this week. Both James White and Chris Thompson totaled at least 10 catches and 77 yards through the air, so there may be some hope for McCoy with Anderson, who will likely check-down more than Josh Allen did. Consider McCoy just a mediocre RB3 option whose offense will continue to hold him back.

Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: It was refreshing to watch Mack last week, as he offered explosion out of a Colts running back that we haven’t seen this year. While Hines has done a fine job in the passing-game, Mack is the type of running back this offense needs. He’s not going to dive forward for a yard or two, he’s going to lose yards when he bounces runs outside, but he’s also going to break some long plays at times which should help take the load off Luck. The Colts have averaged 30.7 points per game over the last three weeks, so the scoring opportunities will be there. The issue is that the offensive line has been down 3-of-5 starters, and that’ll make for some maddening weeks with Mack, but it’s that one play you’re waiting for. To know that he totaled 89 rushing yards (28 more than any other Colts running back this year) in his first game back should give you hope. The Bills have cleaned up their run defense over the last four weeks, allowing just 284 rushing yards on 76 carries (3.74 yards per carry) with one touchdown. The area to hang your hat, however, is that they’ve faced at least 20 rushing attempts in 5-of-6 games, meaning there should be plenty of opportunities for Mack to find that hole. Consider him an upside RB3 in this game and one who I’d give the tiebreaker to if forced to choose. Hines shouldn’t be needed a whole lot in this game with limited pass attempts, and it’s the reason they’ve failed to allow more than three receptions to a running back in the last three weeks. Hines is just an weak RB4 option in standard formats, but is a high-end RB4 in PPR leagues.

WRs
Zay Jones: It’s somewhat pointless to continue to list Kelvin Benjamin here, as there’s so many other players who deserve recognition in this article over him. While no Bills wide receiver is fantasy viable right now, Jones has been playing a majority of his snaps in the slot and has now seen 19 targets over the last three weeks. He was able to post his first touchdown of the year in Week 6, but he’s posted more than 38 yards just once and will have a new quarterback throwing him the ball. The Colts secondary has been somewhat middle of the pack against wide receivers, but we did see slot receiver Keke Coutee tag them for 11/109/0 just three weeks ago. He also saw 15 targets in that game, something Jones won’t ever see in this offense. He’s just a WR5/6 option, but has emerged as the best Bills wide receiver, though that’s not saying much. It’s like saying I’m the best writer featured in this article.

T.Y. Hilton: It seems as if Hilton may try to give it a go this week after returning to practice on Wednesday. Should he be active for this game, he’d see a lot of Tre’Davious White who’s been one of the league’s best cornerbacks this year. Among the top options he’s semi-shadowed this year include DeAndre Hopkins (5/63/1), Corey Davis (4/49/0), Davante Adams (8/81/0), and Stefon Diggs (4/17/0). In a game we’re not projecting Luck to throw the ball more than maybe 35 times, it’s unlikely Hilton walks right back into his typical WR1/2 role. Update: Hilton is on track to play, but does have the toughest matchup on the field. Knowing Luck’s been targeting Chester Rogers, Ryan Grant, and Zach Pascal the last few weeks, he’s still likely to target Hilton eight-plus times, making him a high-end WR3, but one who doesn’t have as much upside as usual. 

Ryan Grant: Another one bites the dust, as Grant should be considered a long-shot to play this week after exiting the Week 6 game with an ankle injury. He’s been extremely mediocre with Hilton out of the lineup, so he’s not a preferred fantasy option at this time anyway. Update: He’s out for this game. 

Chester Rogers: After starting the Week 6 game with two ugly drops, Rogers got his head together and wound up catching 4-of-8 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. It was supposed to be a high-floor game against the Jets, so it was good to see him get it together. He’s now seen at least 10 targets in each of the last three games, which have netted 20 receptions for 206 yards and a touchdown. Even though we’ve seen Luck throw a ton (164 times) the last three weeks, Rogers has seen an impressive 18.9 percent of those targets, making him a stable option, especially in PPR formats. The Bills have fourth-round pick Taron Johnson covering the slot and he’s done a very respectable job while allowing just a 58.6 percent catch rate in his coverage, and he hasn’t allowed a touchdown in his coverage since Week 1. He did a solid job on Keke Coutee last week, which raises some flags for Rogers, though he’s still on the WR4 radar considering Jack Doyle, and Ryan Grant will be out. Hey, the targets have to go somewhere, right?

TEs
Charles Clay: He’s now seen at least five targets in two of the last three games, though his season-high is still 40 yards. With Anderson under center, it’s likely that the over/under for his touchdown passes would sit at 1.0 for this week, meaning it’s pretty unlikely Clay finds his first glimpse of the end zone this year. The Colts were missing starting strong safety Clayton Geathers last week and because of that, Chris Herndon was able to stack up a season-high 56 yards and a touchdown. If Geathers is out again, it really is a good matchup for Clay, but he’s just a last-ditch emergency option TE2 with Anderson under center.

Eric Ebron: If not for Zach Ertz‘s record-setting target pace, Ebron would be the No. 1 fantasy tight end through six weeks. He’s now totaled 43 targets in the four games that Doyle has missed, producing at least 15 PPR points in 3-of-4 games. He’s actually scored in 5-of-6 games, including the ones that Doyle played, so he’s clearly erased the “he can’t score touchdowns” reputation that everyone wanted to give him during his time in Detroit. He’s now scored six touchdowns on 52 targets with Luck after scoring just 11 touchdowns on 288 targets from Matthew Stafford. The Bills have one of the better safety duos in the league between Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, and they’ve also got some athletic linebackers who can hang with Ebron in the secondary, so this might be his toughest matchup since becoming the featured option. There’s been just one tight end who’s totaled more than three catches against them, though there’s yet to be one with more than six targets as well. With the missing targets in the offense and given Ebron’s recent fortune of targets, he still needs to be in lineups as a solid high-floor TE1. This is not the week to risk it all in DFS on him, though, especially when you consider his new price-tag.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 49.5
Line: TB by 3.0

QBs
Baker Mayfield: It’s been a bit of a bumpy road for the rookie, who was shoved into a first-team role without any reps, though that excuse will wear out here relatively soon, as he’s now had three weeks preparing as the starter. But here’s the thing… opposite of Mitch Trubisky, Mayfield’s production doesn’t match what you see on the field. He’s poised in the pocket, maneuvers well, and throws with precision, though his receivers haven’t helped him out to this point. His wide receivers have a 9.8 drop percentage, which ranks as the most in the NFL. In fact, there’s just two other quarterbacks whose receivers have more than a 6.6 percent drop rate. Mayfield tweaked his ankle while running out of bounds last week, but he’s reportedly going to be fine. The Bucs might be the cure for his ailments, as they’ve now allowed five straight quarterbacks to throw for at least 334 yards, and 4-of-5 to throw for at least three touchdowns. It forced them to fire defensive coordinator Mike Smith last week, promoting linebackers coach Mark Duffner to be the interim coordinator. There was definitely issues in the scheme, but the talent is just not there for the Bucs to succeed, as they have a weak trio of cornerbacks (that includes two rookies) who are now dealing with injuries and are down to their second-string safety after Chris Conte went to injured reserve. Provided Mayfield is healthy heading into this game, he should be started as a low-end QB1 who is cash-game viable.

Jameis Winston: During the last 12 full games that Winston has played, he’s now totaled 3,771 yards with 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Over a full 16-game season, that would amount to 5,028 yards, 31 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. The comparison we can use from the 2017 season would be Tom Brady who threw for 4,577 yards and 32 touchdowns. Bottom line, Winston has been pretty dang good, even if he has made a few mistakes. The Browns haven’t been a team who’s been exposed through the air, as they’ve allowed just nine passing touchdowns through six games while intercepting 10 passes. They’ve also faced a slew of tough quarterbacks that has included Brees, Roethlisberger, and Rivers. One thing to note, however, is that they’ve allowed six of their nine passing touchdowns in just two road games, while allowing just three passing scores in three home games. Some teams just play better at home, though we’re still left with just a small sample size here. The bonus for Winston is that his defense will continue to allow points on the board, and the Browns opponents have averaged an NFL-high 72.7 plays per game. It also helps that the Browns pass-rush has slowed as of late, totaling just a 4.23 percent sack-rate over the last three weeks which ranks 27th in the NFL. Due to that and his lack of run-game, Winston is still on the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 radar, even if the Browns have been better than in years past.

RBs
Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson: It had been two bad weeks for Carlos Hyde, who started out the year as one of the top performers at running back, as he was the No. 6 running back through four games. Over the last two weeks he’d totaled just 97 rushing yards on 31 carries (3.12 yards per carry) against the Ravens and Chargers, while failing to record a touchdown. There was also 5-of-6 weeks where Hyde failed to generate more than 3.7 yards per carry, while his teammates Johnson and Chubb combined for 284 yards on 35 carries (8.11 yards per carry) this year. So, in case you missed it, the Browns traded him to the Jaguars on Friday. That means it’ll be Chubb’s backfield against the Bucs, though it’s not as good of a matchup as some think. The Bucs may be a cakewalk through the air, but they’ve been relatively good against the run, not allowing a single running back to post more than 61 yards on the ground, which included Tevin Coleman, Jordan Howard/Tarik Cohen, James Conner, Jay Ajayi, and Alvin Kamara. Think about that… not a single running back to top 61 rushing yards. That’s not the end of this story, though, as they’ve been murdered against pass-catching backs, allowing 31 receptions for 333 yards and three touchdowns. Keep in mind that they’ve only played five games and their bye week is already out of the way. Johnson has seen 12 targets in Mayfield’s three starts, while Hyde saw just four targets in that time, so it’s possible the Browns bring Johnson to life in this game. He’s still yet to touch the ball more than six times, but if they’re paying attention to strengths and weaknesses, they’ll use him this week. Knowing it’s Chubb’s first game as the primary 1-2 down back, I’d expect Johnson more involved regardless. Chubb can be played as a high-end RB3 who comes with some touchdown upside, but Johnson may be the safer play this week. In PPR formats, Johnson should be considered a solid RB2 play, where he’s more on the RB3 radar in standard formats.

Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones: There are so many people who are willing to bury Jones back on the waiver wire after last week’s game, but I urge you to be patient. I mentioned last week that no matter who the starter in the game against the Falcons was, they should live up to RB2 numbers. It was that good of a matchup, so to see Barber finish with 106 total yards and a touchdown, I wasn’t surprised in the least. What did surprise me is the fact that they’ve pushed Jacquizz Rodgers down the depth chart as he played a season-low 10 snaps against the Falcons. Jones played just 12 snaps, but he saw three targets on them, while Rodgers didn’t see any. Barber will hold this job until his next lackluster game, so don’t lose hope with Jones just yet. If there’s a weak point on this Browns defense, it’s their lack of presence up the middle against the run. They’ve now allowed near 4.7 yards per carry with seven rushing touchdowns on the year, including three to Melvin Gordon last week. That’s a far cry from who they were last year when they allowed a league-low 3.3 yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns all season. They’re also going to be without their best run-stopping linebacker Joe Schobert for this game. The issue for Barber is that he’s still yet to score a rushing touchdown on 63 carries, while every running back who’s scored against the Browns this season has had multiple touchdowns in other games. He’s never going to be the type of running back who’ll win you a week (or tournament), but he can be a useable RB3 in this game. As for Jones, he’s just a bench stash until Barber slips up and allows him to get a crack at the starting job.

WRs
Jarvis Landry: After the way you say Mayfield and Landry connect against the Jets when Mayfield came off the bench, you had to think there’d be fireworks between the two going forward. Well, it’s been the opposite of that, as Landry has seen a solid 29 targets, but totaled just 11 catches for 114 yards and one touchdown. That 37.9 percent catch-rate is terrible, and it doesn’t help that he’s dropped three of Mayfield’s passes to him. Even while playing in the slot, his catch-rate is just 47.6 percent, which ranks dead last among wide receivers who’ve run at least 25 percent of their routes from the slot. The two need to connect in this game, as the Bucs secondary has been as atrocious as advertised. Rookie M.J. Stewart has covered the slot and has also been routinely burned. There’ve been 28 passes that have come his way, and just three of them have hit the ground. Over the last two weeks, he’s allowed four touchdowns on just nine targets in coverage. I’m not kidding, the passer rating when targeting him his 151.5, which is the second-highest in the NFL of full-time cornerbacks. If Landry can’t get it done here, there’s cause for concern, but I think he will. He’s a high-end WR2 and one you need to trust.

Antonio Callaway: Ever since his long touchdown catch against the Saints back in Week 2 when everyone wanted to run to the waiver wire and pick him up, Callaway has seen 34 targets that have amounted to just 12 receptions for 108 yards. That’s a measly 3.2 yards per target. He’s also dropped four passes, not helping his cause. But the Browns need him to play, especially considering Rashard Higgins is out with a sprained MCL. He’ll see both Brent Grimes and Ryan Smith/Carlton Davis as he plays almost strictly on the perimeter. The Bucs haven’t had a cornerback play even average football to this point, and that includes Grimes, who’s allowed a 72.2 percent catch rate in his coverage. It’s tough to trust a player who’s shown so little, but knowing the Bucs have allowed seven wide receivers to score 17 or more PPR points is tempting. He’s just a last-minute WR5 to plug in for bye weeks, but he comes with some potential in this matchup.

Mike Evans: After a hot start that included 23/367/3 in the first three weeks with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Evans has really cooled down the last two games while totaling just 10/117/0 against a combination of the Bears and Falcons cornerbacks. The warning sign here is Winston, as Evans has now played five games without him the last two years, averaging 6.8 catches for 107.4 yards and 21.1 PPR points without him. In the 15 games with him, he’s averaged 4.7 catches for 63.4 yards and 13.0 PPR points. It’s a small sample size, but it’s also not ideal. Fortunately for him, the Browns haven’t used Denzel Ward in shadow coverage and he’ll only see him about 30 percent of the time. He’s going to see E.J. Gaines most of the time, the cornerback who was forced into the starting lineup for an injured Terrance Mitchell. Coming from the Bills, Gaines played really well opposite Tre’Davious White last year, but we also cannot forget that he allowed nine touchdowns on 72 targets in coverage in 2016. He’s 5-foot-10, 190 pounds and it should be a matchup Evans can win. You should continue to plug him in as a low-end WR1, though you shouldn’t necessarily play him in cash games until him and Winston figure it out.

DeSean Jackson: It should be fun to watch Jackson play against the rookie Denzel Ward for the majority of the day, as they’ll line-up across from each other about 50-55 percent of the time. Jackson actually matches up well with him, as Ward has played better in zone coverage than man coverage. On 19 targets in zone coverage, he’s allowed just a 48.6 QB Rating. On 19 targets against man coverage, he’s allowed a 91.8 QB Rating. Jackson is someone who’s dominated man coverage throughout his career and it’s unlikely the Browns can trust Evans one-on-one against E.J. Gaines without safety help. He’s now totaled at least 77 yards in 4-of-5 games and is averaging a robust 16.2 yards per target. The closest wide receiver with more than 10 targets is Tyrell Williams, who’s averaged 13.5 yards per target. Jackson is a very interesting WR3 this week who does come with some risk against Ward, though it may not be as bad as initially thought.

Chris Godwin: We wanted to see how Godwin did/how many snaps he played out of the bye week, and while the targets (9) were most likely there, he ranked third in snaps among wide receivers. He actually played more snaps than Jackson, but less than Adam Humphries. It was almost as if him and Jackson were splitting snaps, while Evans and Humphries were the constants. It’s odd to say the least. Of the top 100 fantasy wide receivers, Godwin ranks 23rd in fantasy points per target, so he’s getting it done when called upon. How is he scoring so much on limited playing time? He’s a red zone machine who’s seen eight targets inside the 10 yard-line, while Evans has seen one, and Jackson has seen none. Godwin’s eight targets inside the 10 are tied for DeAndre Hopkins for the most in the league. What this should tell you is that he’s extremely touchdown-dependent, though some of those touchdowns could start going Evans’ way. Godwin isn’t someone who you should feel the need to play this week, as he’ll see a mixture of both Denzel Ward and E.J. Gaines, and the Browns have allowed essentially one receiver to score more than 12 PPR points in each game, so it’d be a stretch to expect another big game as the team’s No. 3 or No. 4 receiver. He’s a touchdown-or-bust WR4 option.

TEs
David Njoku: My exact words last week on Njoku were… If you have Njoku, congrats. If you don’t, you should get out there and acquire him if possible. He finally found the end zone, but it was only a matter of time. He’s now about to go on a rampage, and it starts this week against the Bucs who don’t have a safety who can cover him. They’ve played five games, and they’ve allowed at least 16.6 PPR points to four of those tight ends, including Austin Hooper‘s 22.1-point performance last week. They’ve allowed almost 2.5 more fantasy points per game than the next closest team, and it’s not due to a whole bunch of targets, either, as there are nine teams who’ve seen more targets. They had Chris Conte go to injured reserve, which forced them to go to rookie Jordan Whitehead, who is 5-foot-10 and was always a bit small in his NFL projection. The other safety he’ll see in coverage is Justin Evans, who has really struggled in coverage, allowing an 88.2 percent catch-rate, including two touchdowns on his last 10 targets in coverage. Njoku is a must-play TE1 who should be cash-game viable, as he’s caught 18 passes the last three weeks.

O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate: It’s pretty crazy to see the quick turnaround for Howard, who wound up playing near a full complement of snaps just two weeks removed from a sprained MCL. He played 52 percent of the snaps, which is short of his 70 percent snap-rate in Weeks 1-3, but he’ll likely be back there this week. Because of that Brate went back to his secondary role that had him on the field for just 33 percent of the snaps. In the four full games Howard has played this year, he’s totaled at least 54 yards in each of them, scoring in 2-of-4 games. He’s not seeing a whole bunch of targets, but he’s nearly doubled Brate (21-11), so he’s clearly the one to play. The Browns have struggled against tight ends the last few years, but haven’t allowed much of anything outside of Jared Cook, who smacked them for 8/110/2 back in Week 4. The competition has been weak, so it’s possible they’re still the same team who allowed 11-of-16 tight ends to post TE1 numbers against them last year. Howard should be in fantasy lineups as a solid TE1 who comes with plenty of upside. Brate is still on the streaming radar considering the opponent, but he’s a low-floor TE2 who would need to score to not completely bust.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 42.5
Line: JAX by 5.0

QBs
Deshaun Watson: This was supposed to be a game we looked forward to, but Watson is dinged-up and the Jaguars defense has been demolished the last two weeks. It’s now the story of who can get back on track the quickest. After totaling at least 36 rushing yards in each of the first five games, Watson was held to just two rushing yards against the Bills last week, leaving us to wonder just how much this chest injury was bothering him. The Jaguars are going to bring the pressure and although they didn’t look like it last week, they’re still one of the elite defenses in the game who’ll be back at home. Dak Prescott was the second quarterback over the last two years who’s posted top-12 numbers against them and the first quarterback who posted more than 22 fantasy points. Considering Prescott had failed to score more than 18 points in any game this year prior to that one, we’re going to accept it as an outlier to the Jaguars defense. Prior to that, the Jaguars had held Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes to a combined 547 yards and two touchdowns. If Watson can’t run, he’s got issues against this defense. He’s also known to throw the ball up to Hopkins and Fuller in one-on-one situations, though that may not be wise against Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. The one break he might get is with defensive tackle Calais Campbell, who is dealing with an ankle injury and questionable for this game. Watson is just a high-end QB2 whose floor is lower than we thought given his lack of mobility at the moment.

Blake Bortles: Once the defense gave up two touchdowns last week, it felt like the game was over. Bortles isn’t a comeback-type quarterback who will succeed in obvious passing plays, as he relies on the run-game to keep defenses honest. He’s now down to his third-string left tackle, as both Cam Robinson and Josh Wells have found their way to injured reserve. It’s allowed him to be sacked eight times over the last two games after being sacked just six times in the first four games. The Texans pass-rush has been solid with J.J. Watt back disrupting the middle of the field, as they’ve racked-up 12 sacks over their last four games. If a quarterback can get protection, their secondary is exploitable, as they’ve allowed at least 7.2 yards per attempt to every quarterback not named Blaine Gabbert or Josh Allen. They also stop the run very well (allowed just one rushing touchdown all year), which means it’s going to be on Bortles to win this game. This game will be at home, which is where Bortles has played well against the Texans. It’s quite odd, actually. He can be considered a high-end QB2 this week because of the chart below that shows his career against them.

RBs
Lamar Miller: It seemed like last week should be a game the Texans should have had some success on the ground against the Bills, but their run-game woes continued. Over the last four weeks, their running backs have totaled just 221 yards on 83 carries (2.66 yards per carry) without a single touchdown. While the offensive line is struggling, so is the duo of Miller and Alfred Blue. The Texans were hoping to get D’Onta Foreman back for this game, but it’s not happening as he continues to recover from his Achilles injury. The Jaguars have allowed just two run-games total more than 3.6 yards per carry against them, which were led by Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott, two of the top-five running backs in the game. Miller is far from that conversation and will likely struggle to reach 10 PPR points in this game, making him an unappealing low-end RB3. He’s seen just three targets in his last two games, so he’s not even getting work in the passing-game.

T.J. Yeldon and Carlos Hyde: For those who don’t know, the Jaguars traded for Hyde on Friday, confusing everyone just a little bit more. For what it’s worth, we’re told that Hyde is unlikely to play in this game considering he’s joined the team one day before the game, so be prepared to be without him this week. It’s pretty crazy to see Yeldon’s stat lines on the ground this year, as he’s totaled in-between 41 and 58 yards in every game, despite how many carries he received. The Jaguars offensive line is in bad shape, so we know that’s not where he’s going to get his fantasy points from. He’s now caught 25 passes on the year which ranks 10th among running backs, and he should be able to add to that total in this game. We’ve seen Nyheim Hines, Saquon Barkley, James White, and Ezekiel Elliott rack up at least 8.5 PPR points through the air alone in their games against the Texans, which is important because no running back has totaled more than 82 yards on the ground against them, and they’ve allowed just one rushing touchdown on the year. When Bortles is under duress, he’ll look to Yeldon, who should be able to offer something in the receiving game which will allow him to reach low-end RB2/high-end RB3 numbers, but he’s not going to be a tournament-winner or anything. Even if Hyde is announced as active, it’s tough to like him as anything more than an emergency RB4-type option, though he would lower Yeldon’s potential.

WRs
DeAndre Hopkins: Lucky for his owners, Hopkins snagged a touchdown that not many wide receivers could have last week, salvaging his fantasy day. Knowing that Watson threw the ball just 25 times last week, it’s obvious why we saw Hopkins finish with his first sub-10-target game of the year. He’s still caught at least five passes and 63 yards in every game, showing off an extremely high floor. That’ll be tested this week, as Hopkins is going to see a whole lot of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye in coverage. That duo has allowed just a 61 percent catch-rate in coverage, and they’ve still yet to allow a touchdown. There have been just four wide receiver touchdowns against the Jaguars this year and they were all in the slot to Chris Hogan and Cole Beasley. Hopkins will get the respect of the Jaguars even when he goes into the slot, so he’s not going to escape tough coverage. This is a week to be concerned about his upside, as he’s more of a WR2 in a tough matchup than the WR1 you drafted. You still must play him in season-long leagues but understand that he’s not going to win you the week. He saw a monumental 29 targets against them last year that led to just 11 receptions for 135 yards, though he did score twice.

Will Fuller: It seems the addition of Coutee to the offense is really hurting Fuller’s production. He’s now seen just six targets over the last two weeks, catching four passes for 48 yards. You’d have to go back to Week 3 to find the last time Fuller had more than five targets, which isn’t going to promote consistent fantasy results. Just like Hopkins, he’s going to see a tough matchup this week, as A.J. Bouye will be his primary defender in coverage. One of the most underrated cornerbacks in the league, Bouye has allowed just four touchdowns on his last 227 targets in coverage, including none this year. There’s been just two non-slot receivers who have totaled more than 10 PPR points against the Jaguars, and they both (Odell Beckham, Sammy Watkins) saw at least eight targets, something we can’t come close to guaranteeing for Fuller. Consider him a boom-or-bust WR4 in this game and not one you should feel compelled to play.

Keke Coutee: If there’s one Texans wide receiver who has a plus matchup, it’s Coutee. On top of that, he’s now seen 27 targets through three games, which is just four targets behind Fuller. The Jaguars have allowed four touchdowns to wide receivers this year and every one of them was in the slot (Chris Hogan 2, Cole Beasley 2). It definitely helped Beasley’s performance that former undrafted free agent Tyler Patmon had to fill in for the injured D.J. Hayden, though Doug Marrone has stated he’s “hopeful” to get Hayden back this week. He’s been out since Week 2, so there could be some rust to knock off when he does return. With the Jaguars pass-rush and the Texans weak offensive line, Watson will need to get the ball out quickly and considering Coutee’s average depth of target sits at just 4.8 yards, he could be the primary beneficiary. He’s on the WR4 radar this week, especially in PPR formats.

Keelan Cole: There’s a question about which Jaguars receiver to play each and every week on Twitter and if they’d just come to read The Primer, we’ve done pretty well figuring that out the last few weeks. Most don’t know that Moncrief has been the primary downfield receiver for them, while Westbrook has been slot-heavy and relied upon creating yards after the catch. Cole fills the other gaps and has at least five targets in four of the last five games, so he’s definitely involved. He’ll see a mixture of all cornerbacks the Texans have, though he’ll primarily see Shareece Wright in coverage. He’s a journeyman, and one who had been targeted in DFS the last few years. He’s had to step in to play for the Texans on short notice and it’s showed, as he’s allowed two touchdowns over the last three weeks while playing against the Colts, Cowboys, and Bills wide receivers. Think about the lack of talent on those teams. Similar to Bortles, Cole has played better at home, averaging 11.4 PPR points there compared to just 6.7 PPR points per game on the road. He can be played as a decent WR4 in this game who could pop back up on the fantasy radar.

Donte Moncrief: I was somewhat shocked to learn in my research last week that Moncrief was Bortles’ deep threat considering his average depth of target (14.6 yards) is top-15 in the NFL. Knowing that, it was no shock that he didn’t do much when Bortles was facing the fierce Cowboys pass-rush. The Texans are going to bring the same exact pressure, so it’s another week to fade Moncrief. He’s also going to see Johnathan Joseph in coverage most of the day, and he’s a 13-year veteran who’s well-equipped to handle Moncrief. Outside of his matchup with T.Y. Hilton where he was continually burned, Joseph has allowed just 17-of-32 passing for 184 yards and one touchdown. Moncrief should be considered a WR5 this week and not one who’s particularly enticing.

Dede Westbrook: It was good to see Westbrook get into the end zone last week, as the matchup made sense for him. His average depth of target is just 7.6 yards, so if it’s not T.J. Yeldon getting the targets when Bortles gets pressured, it should be Westbrook. The Texans have recently moved Kareem Jackson down from safety to play slot cornerback and he’s done a great job, allowing just three catches for 26 yards on eight targets over the last two weeks, while adding an interception in each game. It’s not what he is known for, though, as he’d allowed a 103.6 or higher QB Rating in his coverage each of the last three years. Knowing the pressure the Texans will put on Bortles behind that putrid offensive line, we should see Westbrook involved a bit more. Consider him a middling WR4 this week, though Cole is likely the wide receiver I’d want to play, if forced to pick one.

TEs
Ryan Griffin: The good news for Griffin is that he’s now seen 14 targets the last two weeks after seeing just 11 targets in the first four games. The bad news is that he failed to record a catch on five targets in Week 6. Oddly enough, it was the second time that’s happened this year (Week 1 versus Patriots). He’s not as talented as Hopkins and can’t pull down the tough catches that are off target. He’s only had one drop on the year, so it’s not Griffin’s fault. He and Watson are just not on the same page is all. This week isn’t one where it’ll come together, either, as the Jaguars have yet to allow a tight end not named Travis Kelce top three catches or 27 yards. He’s playing a lot of snaps, which is appealing, but we cannot trust him as a streamer this week.

James O’Shaughnessy: With Niles Paul out for multiple weeks, the Jaguars will now turn to third-string tight end O’Shaughnessy, who has now seen 13 targets over the last three weeks. He’s caught eight passes for 84 yards, so it’s not as if he’s been Jonnu Smith or anything. The Jaguars did go out and sign Blake Bell, though he’ll be playing after being with the team just a few days. Bortles has targeted his tight ends 51 times through six games, so there’s potential here. It also helps that the Texans have struggled against tight ends, allowing four top-15 performances to tight ends through six games. The two who didn’t were the aforementioned Smith and Charles Clay, who lack much of a role. As odd as it sounds, if you’re in a real pinch, O’Shaughnessy is on the TE2 radar this week. Update: He’s out for this game, so he’s definitely not on the streaming radar.