It’s great to have NFL football back – and Week 1 provided more than its share of “wow” moments.
From Robby Anderson’s incredible 75-yard touchdown reception to the Atlanta Falcons rocking three 100-yard receivers to Clyde Edwards-Helaire bursting onto the scene, there’s a lot to unpack – and I’m here for all of it.
Here are 30 of the most interesting facts from around the fantasy football world entering Week 2:
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1. Sunday didn’t start out great for Jonathan Taylor, but things picked up in a hurry – just not in the way we expected. Taylor had only nine carries for 22 yards but added six receptions for 67 yards in the Colts’ 27-20 loss to the Jaguars. Only four RBs in history had more catches in their debut – including teammate Nyheim Hines, who had seven in his first game. Taylor should see all the touches he can handle with Marlon Mack (Achilles) out for the season.
2. From Zach Brunner on Twitter:
Ravens RB Snap Breakdown:
Ingram: 21 Snaps (36%), 10 Rushes, 6 Routes Ran
Dobbins: 23 Snaps (39%), 7 Rushes, 14 Routes Ran
Edwards: 15 Snaps (25%), 4 Rushes,
– Zach Brunner (@FantasyFlurry) September 14, 2020
This will be a workload storyline to monitor moving forward. Quarterback Lamar Jackson had seven carries for 45 yards in Week 1; he had fewer than eight totes just twice last season, including Baltimore’s season-opening 59-10 rout of Miami (in which he had just three rush attempts). In other words, Jackson will run more moving forward – which means someone will be running less. My guess: Edwards’ carries vanish, while Dobbins also takes a hit.
3. Sounds like a good time for a “run” on rushing quarterbacks (pun completely and totally intended). Josh Allen was sensational in Buffalo’s Week 1 win over the New York Jets, throwing for 312 yards and two touchdowns while adding 57 rushing yards and a score. Not only did Allen shatter his previous career high for passing yards, he did it on an eye-popping 46 attempts – even though the Bills led the entire way. Allen looks like a potential fantasy steal.
4. Oh, hi, Cam Newton! The former league MVP looked to be in prime form, turning 15 carries into 75 rushing yards (a single-game franchise record for a quarterback) and two touchdowns. With the New England running back situation a disaster from a fantasy perspective (each of the Pats’ top three RB options finished with exactly 19 snaps), Newton might very well lead this team in rushing – and if he can get the passing game on point, there’s major value here.
5. More Baltimore, courtesy John Daigle on Twitter:
Prior to Sunday, Mark Andrews had never played more than 57% of Ravens’ snaps. He was in on 71% (including a 73.1% slot rate) in a game Baltimore benched their starters in the final quarter.
– John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 14, 2020
Andrews was showing up in a lot of “potential bust” lists during draft season, and some of that was warranted; his high draft slot was largely predicated on the 10 touchdowns he scored last season, and he had more than five catches in just two of his final nine games last season. But while he’s TD-dependent, it’s clear that he’s Lamar Jackson’s red zone target of choices – and larger snap share, particularly in the slot, is only going to add to his overall fantasy value.
6. Don’t give up on Anthony Miller, fantasy fans – especially if you don’t see much from him in the opening quarter. Here are Miller’s quarter-by-quarter totals through the first 32 games of his NFL career:
First Quarter: 13 receptions, 101 yards, 0 TDs
Second Quarter: 25 receptions, 336 yards, 3 TDs
Third Quarter: 25 receptions, 338 yards, 2 TDs
Fourth Quarter: 26 receptions, 378 yards, 5 TDs
The fantasy slant here? The Bears clearly trust Miller in late-game situations, so as long as the Bears find themselves in need of some second-half scoring, he’ll be in the mix. So don’t fret if he gets off to a slow start; it’s just what he does.
7. I was intrigued at how the Falcons were planning to use new running back Todd Gurley – and while game script played a major role in his final stat line, it’s interesting that he saw five targets on 54 Matt Ryan pass attempts. This feels like the high end of the target spectrum for Gurley, whose days as a two-way threat are well behind him. It’s great to see him assume lead-back duties, but keep the targets and receptions expectation to a minimum in 2020.
8. More on the Falcons: While there was plenty to go around for the Falcons’ top three receivers (Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage each finished with nine receptions on 12 targets), tight end (and preseason helium recipient) Hayden Hurst had just three catches for 38 yards on five targets. It’s just one week, sure, but a game like this would normally represent a great opportunity for Ryan and the Falcons to get their prized new TE some targets.
9. Some might look at the passing stats and surmise that Joe Burrow had a rough day from a fantasy perspective. But while that line (23-for-36, 193 yards, one INT) won’t win you a fantasy matchup, his rushing line just might, as he ranked up 46 yards and a touchdown on eight attempts. That rushing tally marks the fifth-highest in NFL history by a QB in his NFL debut, and hints at an underrated part of Burrow’s game that adds tremendous fantasy value.
10. Everyone knew the Chargers’ offense would look dramatically different with Philip Rivers out and Tyrod Taylor in – but if Sunday’s 16-13 win over Cincinnati is an indication of future trends, Austin Ekeler drafters might want to sell now. Ekeler had a strong day on the ground (19 carries for 94 yards) but was thrown to just once – his lowest target total since Week 6 of the 2018 season. This is definitely at least a minor concern heading into Week 2.
11. In a development that is just so modern-day tight end, the top-scoring option in Week 1 was the guy drafted as the TE17 in half-PPR scoring. Dallas Goedert turned nine targets into eight receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown, outperforming teammate Zach Ertz (seven targets, three receptions, 18 yards, TD). With Goedert emerging as a legitimate receiving threat and Ertz at odds with the Eagles, this could become a regular occurrence.
12. Staying with the TE theme, here are the average draft positions this season of the 14 tight ends to catch at least one touchdown pass:
TE1 (Travis Kelce)
TE3 (Mark Andrews)
TE4 (Zach Ertz)
TE13 (Noah Fant)
TE15 (T.J. Hockenson)
TE16 (Jonnu Smith)
TE19 (Dallas Goedert)
TE21 (Greg Olsen)
TE25 (O.J. Howard)
TE28 (David Njoku)
TE34 (Jimmy Graham)
TE35 (Logan Thomas)
NR (Jordan Akins)
NR (MyCole Pruitt)
As always, tight end is an unholy crapshoot beyond the top tier options – so stream wisely, or pony up for a stud.
13. Those who rostered Clyde Edwards-Helaire were mostly happy with his Week 1 performance (though they would have liked to see more goal-to-go success). That said, here’s a little early-week pick-me-up courtesy PFF:
Most rush yards in NFL Wk 1
1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 138
2. CEH yards after contact – 106
3. Christian McCaffrey – 96
3. Ezekiel Elliott – 96 pic.twitter.com/0R8LpQtGvP– PFF College (@PFF_College) September 14, 2020
There really isn’t much that CEH can’t do, and while he won’t gain that many yards after contact every week, it’s clear that his elusiveness is one of his top qualities. Now, let’s see about punching it in from the 2.
14. What can we glean from a fantasy perspective from Jacksonville’s stunning win over Indy? Three things jump out: this team might just be able to run (it averaged 4.0 YPC on 23 attempts Sunday), Gardner Minshew can be an efficient streaming QB (he was 19-for-20 for 173 yards and three scores), and Laviska Shenault could be an intriguing sleeper, finishing with 47 total yards and a touchdown on five touches (three receptions, two carries).
15. The 2020 rookie wide receiver crop has been widely lauded as the best of all-time – but it certainly didn’t look like it in Week 1. Of the nine wideouts making their NFL debuts, only one (Shenault) reached the end zone while CeeDee Lamb topped the yardage chart with 59; by comparison, four rookies racked up 80 or more receiving yards in Week 1 last season. Better days are ahead for the Class of 2020 – but that doesn’t change the Week 1 results.
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16. I have a theory: the Green Bay Packers wanted to motivate Aaron Rodgers going into the 2020 season, which is why they declined to add a wide receiver at the NFL Draft. Sounds ridiculous? Maybe not after watching Rodgers blast the Minnesota Vikings for 364 passing yards and four touchdowns; Davante Adams was the No. 1 recipient as usual, hauling in 14 passes for 151 yards and two TDs. If Rodgers is in eff-you mode all year, Adams will be the WR1.
17. Rodgers’ resurgence – however temporary it might be – rekindles the discussion over which Packers receiver will emerge as the No. 2 option. Both Marquez Valdes-Scantling (four receptions, 96 yards, TD) and Allen Lazard (four receptions, 63 yards, TD) made strong cases, though it’s likely one will step up over the next few weeks. Identifying the correct one could be huge, as Rodgers has proven capable of supporting multiple fantasy studs at WR.
18. One small Packers-related addendum: It might be wise to add Green Bay to the list of teams not to target with your streaming D/ST. Not only does Rogers remain one of the most mistake-averse QBs in football (he hasn’t thrown more than eight INTs in a season since 2010), the Packers cut down his sacks taken by 12 last season – and he stayed upright throughout the win over Minnesota. You just aren’t getting those sack and INT point bonuses vs. the Packers.
19. That was quite a start to the TB-in-TB Era – and not necessarily in a good way, as Tom Brady and the Buccaneers dropped a 34-23 decision to fellow greybeard QB Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. The numbers aren’t great for Brady; of his 18 career Week 1 performances, Sunday’s ranked 14th in overall QB rating (78.4), while the loss marked just the second Week 1 game in which Brady has thrown more than one interception.
20. Odell Beckham Jr. remains one of the most frustrating players to have in fantasy – but you can’t pin his latest dud on him. Beckham opened the season with a thud, catching just three of his 10 targets for 22 yards; he’s still stuck on four touchdowns in 17 games with Cleveland, while his 53.8 catch rate with the Browns is nearly nine percent lower than the mark he had in New York. As long as Baker Mayfield is terrible, Odell will be, too.
21. Speaking of Mayfield, he’ll need to get his act together in a hurry if he has any hope of lasting the year. Mayfield’s clunker against the Ravens dropped his career completion rate vs. division opponents to 58.6 percent, with 23 TDs and 14 INTs in 12 games. Seven of those have come against Baltimore, while the second-most (five) have come vs. the Cincinnati Bengals, who are up next. Stay away from Mayfield and his pass-catching corps this week if you can.
22. From beloved FantasyPros football expert Mike Tagliere on Twitter:
2020 in a tweet: Peyton Barber finished with 10 red zone touches in Week 1. There were just four teams of running backs who finished with more than that.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL) September 15, 2020
Antonio Gibson fans hate to see it, but Barber was a critical component in the Washington Football Team’s stunning win over the Philadelphia Eagles. And while his final line – 17 rushes, 29 yards, 2 TDs – looks pretty terrible, there’s a chance this is who he’ll be for the Football Team: a red-zone pirate who scores double-digit TDs while rushing for 20-to-30 yards a week. And that spells disaster for the entire Washington backfield from a fantasy perspective.
23. This is a fun stat (unless you’re a Giants supporter or roster Saquon Barkley in fantasy): Barkley had the second-fewest rushing yards (six) of any player with a minimum of 15 carries. Barkley had no space to operate behind the Giants’ terrible offensive line, and spent much of Monday in negative rushing yardage. But chin up, Barkley managers: Emmitt Smith had a 15-6 game in 1998, and still finished with 1,332 yards and 13 TDs. Things will get better.
24. Benny Snell capitalized on James Conner‘s ankle injury to light it up on Monday Night Football, piling up 113 yards on 19 carries. Per TribLive, Snell averages 4.5 yards per carry in games where he receives 16 or more carries, as he did last night – and with the Steelers carrying high hopes into the 2020 season (which will almost certainly be one of Big Ben’s last), they won’t hesitate to go with Snell over Conner if Snell continues to perform at a high level.
25. Year 2 is often a big one for the most talented pass-catching tight ends – and Denver’s Fant got his second NFL season off on the right foot with 81 receiving yards and a touchdown in Monday’s 16-14 loss to Tennessee. Fant became the ninth second-year tight end since 2010 with at least 80 receiving yards in Week 1 – a list that includes Andrews, Gronkowski and George Kittle. Don’t be surprised to see a full-on Fant breakout in 2020.
26. How did teams fare overall without the benefit of any preseason games? As many expected, the defenses struggled more than the offenses, with teams averaging 24.5 points across the 16 Week 1 contests – the highest opening-week team scoring average since 2012. It’s impossible to know whether this trend will continue past Week 1, but for now, let’s enjoy the boost to our fantasy football scoring totals!
27. Let’s go back to the Colts for a moment, since Taylor isn’t the only player with value in the Indy backfield. Hines hauled in all eight of his Week 1 targets for 45 yards and a score. He’ll likely cede most of the carries to Taylor, but should see plenty of value as a change of pace and on passing downs. Rivers led the NFL in targets to running backs last week and had a league-high 17 in Week 1 – and that trend isn’t likely to abate anytime soon.
28. Here’s another unusual bit of Week 1 trivia: there was only one run of 30 or more yards among the 16 season-opening games – a schedule that produced 905 total carries. That came courtesy Snell, whose 30-yard run helped propel him into waiver wire must-have status. Only seven teams had a run of 25+ yards in Week 1, while one team – those New York Jets – had a long run of eight yards. The league as a whole averaged 4.1 yards per carry for the week.
29. Check out this nugget courtesy Jacob Gibbs on Twitter:
Nick Chubb‘s averages over his last six games:
56% snap rate
14.3 carries
1.7 targets
10.3 PPR points (would have ranked as RB32 last year) pic.twitter.com/pkdN0XmaeK– Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 15, 2020
With the ink still drying on Kareem Hunt‘s recently signed contract, it’s clear he will remain an integral part of the Browns’ offensive attack – and if Cleveland continues to find itself in negative game scripts, the overall snap count split will remain close enough to even to make Chubb’s fantasy managers want to vomit.
30. If it seems like field-goal kickers were unusually bad in Week 1, it’s because they were. Big-time. Kickers converted at a pitiful 71.6-percent success rate, with nearly half the teams in the league missing at least one attempt. To put that into perspective, kickers made good on 81.6 percent of all field-goal attempts in 2019. So for all you fantasy owners who had a rough kicking performance turn a Week 1 win into a loss, all I can say is: You’re not alone.
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