The Primer: Week 1 Edition (2018 Fantasy Football)

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Total: 51.0
Line: NE by 6.0

QBs
Deshaun Watson: All of the 2017 season means nothing anymore, as those who have been calling for Watson’s regression will finally see if their tale holds true. He’s going to have a rematch against the Patriots, a team he threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns against in Week 3 last year. The Patriots have had quite a few changes since that time, including defensive end Adrian Clayborn and cornerback Jason McCourty. The over/under is one of the highest of Week 1, so oddsmakers are expecting more fireworks, similar to the ones last year when the game ended 36-33. I don’t believe the Patriots defense has changed to the point where they are improved from the defense that allowed seven quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns, and six quarterbacks to throw for 300-plus yards in 2017. Knowing that, Watson should live up to his QB1 price-tag in Week 1. He’s in play for tournaments, though he’s somewhat expensive for my cash-game preference.

Tom Brady: Most don’t realize that Brady lost two starting offensive tackles in free agency and then a starting offensive guard in the preseason. The protection might be as bad as he’s ever had, and he now has to deal with a healthy Jadaveon Clowney and J.J. Watt coming after him in Week 1. We haven’t even talked about his lack of options in the passing game, as Julian Edelman is suspended for four games, leaving him with a group of unproven talents behind Chris Hogan on the wide receiver depth chart. He’s likely going to be targeting his running backs early and often, trying to take the pressure off the pass-rush. Despite missing Watt last year, the Texans were quite respectable against the run, but really struggled in their secondary, as they allowed six different quarterbacks to throw for at least three touchdowns, including Jared Goff, Alex Smith, Blaine Gabbert, and Blake Bortles. The best way to attack this defense is through the air, so expect Brady to rack up the attempts in this game. Protection is a problem, but he should be able to produce QB1 numbers through dink-and-dunk plays to the running backs and utilizing Rob Gronkowski. He’s a great tournament option this week, though if paying up, Watson might deliver more bang for your buck in cash-games.

RBs
Lamar Miller: He was a player falling further than he should in fantasy drafts, mainly because of Deshaun Watson‘s presence. Some will say Watson takes away upside from Miller seeing as he’ll run for multiple touchdowns, but Miller benefits from defenses having to keep a spy on the quarterback. It’s why LeSean McCoy was able to have a career-year alongside Tyrod Taylor in 2016. In the seven games Watson played last year, Miller averaged 14.9 PPR points, while averaging just 9.9 PPR points in the nine games without him. The issue with believing he blows up this week is due to the fact that the Patriots allowed just five rushing touchdowns to running backs last year. They did, however, allow seven different running backs to rack up 48 or more receiving yards against them. It’s unlikely that the Texans jump out to a big lead in this game, which means there will be no clock-killing type of performance. This suggests a volatile floor, but a high-ceiling considering he’s the best pass-catcher in their stable of running backs. His 15-touch, 63-yard performance against them last year is about right, though he should have a shot to score in what’s projected to be a high-scoring game. Consider him an upside RB2 this week.

Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, James White, and Jeremy Hill: I don’t know how else to say this, but… if you have one of these pass-catching running backs on your roster, start them in Week 1. Ok, maybe you don’t need to start all of them. Most will say that White is just a bench option, but if you aren’t going to play him in this game, why is he on your roster? Even without J.J. Watt on the field last year, the Texans held opposing running backs to under 4.0 yards per carry. The way to move the ball against them is through the air and White is essentially going to act as a slot receiver this week. This is me telling you to expect a minimum of six targets with a ceiling of 10-plus. White should be played as a high-upside RB3 this week and someone I’ll have in a lot of DFS lineups. Burkhead’s snaps were managed in the preseason, though they said he would have played if the games counted. My belief is that they wanted to ensure they had him healthy for the first few games with Julian Edelman suspended. The combination of Burkhead and White will fill the slot role, while Burkhead should also see 8-10 carries. That makes for a high-floor RB3 with decent upside, as he might get the goal-line job for the Patriots out of the gate. Michel is the wildcard of the bunch, as he missed almost all of the preseason after getting his knee scoped. He’s been taking part in meetings and team walkthroughs, so the learning curve may not be as steep as some suggest. Still, he comes with a level of risk after not playing in the preseason. That’s why I consider him a risk/reward RB4 for this contest, but one you should get exposure to in some tournament lineups. Hill is the one I’d keep on fantasy benches, as he could very well be inactive for the game, though he’ll likely play with their limited wide receivers on the depth chart. He’s just a touchdown-or-bust player in this game, which can be said about plenty waiver wire options.

WRs
Deandre Hopkins: After finishing as the WR1 in 2017, Hopkins is out to prove he’s the best in the game in 2018, as he’s felt disrespected by some keeping him out when mentioning the game’s elite. Guys, he’s elite. The question is whether Deshaun Watson can continue along the path he did in 2017 and get Hopkins the ball continuously. The funny thing is that Hopkins averaged just as many points per game with Tom Savage playing as he did with Watson, though he also saw more targets from Savage. Hopkins actually had one of his quietest games last year against the Patriots, totaling seven catches for 76 scoreless yards. Not a bad game, but we all know that Bill Belichick schemes to take away the opponent’s No. 1 option. When the two teams met in 2016, Hopkins finished with four catches for 56 yards. Look, you aren’t benching Hopkins at any point this season, but you should temper expectations against the Patriots. Knowing his price is among the most at his position, Hopkins is a fade at his current cost, especially in cash games.

Will Fuller: He didn’t play when the two met last year, but he might be in a better spot to succeed than usual this week. The typical way that the Patriots do it is stick two men (cornerback and safety) on the top receiver (Hopkins), while putting Stephon Gilmore on the No. 2 receiver. Gilmore is a solid cornerback, but I don’t know if he can handle the speed of Fuller. The biggest question will be whether the Texans offensive line will give Fuller enough time to separate downfield. The bad part about Fuller is that he’s limited in his target share, as he saw more than six targets in just 2-of-10 games last year. When seeing that low of volume, it’ll be difficult to produce as a consistent WR3. Knowing what the game-script will likely look like, Fuller should be able to get into that range in Week 1, though I wouldn’t play him in any cash-game lineups. He’s almost always going to have tournament-upside and this week is no different.

Bruce Ellington: Some have completely forgotten about Ellington, who was supposed to be a breakout star in Chip Kelly’s 49ers offense. Remember that? Well, Ellington latched on with the Texans last year and played a semi-big role for them, seeing at least seven targets in 5-of-11 games, which was more than Will Fuller. He’s got the best matchup on the field, too, as the Patriots secondary has their hands full with Hopkins and Fuller. The slot has always been an area of weakness for the Patriots secondary and is the reason Jarvis Landry had so many good games against them. In fact, Ellington totaled four catches for 59 yards and a touchdown against them last year. He’s not someone I’d recommend using in season-long leagues, but if you’re searching for someone who’s near the bare minimum in DFS, he’s not the worst play.

Chris Hogan: There was a good stat thrown out on our podcast last week, where Bob Harris said that Hogan has yet to record more than 41 receptions in his career, so why are we looking at him as a must-own? While I hadn’t realized Hogan had never hit more than that, he’s the counterpoint: Through eight games last year, he totaled 54 targets, 33 receptions, 438 yards, and five touchdowns. You don’t need a mathematician to tell you that would’ve been 66 receptions, 876 yards, and 10 touchdowns over a full season, and that was with Brandin Cooks on the roster. If you haven’t heard, the No. 2 wide receiver on the Patriots roster is Phillip Dorsett. The Texans, who didn’t add any perimeter cornerback talent this offseason (Aaron Colvin was good in the slot for the Jaguars), allowed six different wide receivers to score multiple touchdowns against them last year – Hogan was one of them. With Julian Edelman out, he and Rob Gronkowski are going to be the top target-getters. He’s a WR2 at worst, but you can make the argument that he’s a top-10 play this week. Knowing he’s not a high-reception type player, it’s hard to use him in cash lineups, though I’m not totally against it. He’s obviously a great tournament play.

Phillip Dorsett: We’ve seen him play with a healthy Andrew Luck and a younger Tom Brady, so why should we start to believe now? Well, opportunity is everything, but call me skeptical. I’d imagine he’ll see Johnathan Joseph in coverage, who is now 34 years old and has struggled in coverage as of late. The issue is that Dorsett is primarily a deep threat, and it’s unlikely that Brady has enough time to take many shots down the field in this game. Dorsett is just a punt-play in DFS.

Cordarrelle Patterson: After a ridiculous preseason, we have to watch the snap count of Patterson, who’s a former first-round pick. He offers some flexibility to the Patriots offense, as he’s able to take handoffs out of the backfield, take screen passes to the house, and return kickoffs/punts. A lot of people forgot that Patterson was compared to Dez Bryant coming out of college, though he obviously never lived up to those expectations. Through the three preseason games he played with the Patriots, he racked up 11 receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown. He’s going to be moved around quite a bit, so there’s not a single cornerback matchup to dissect, but there’s potential here if he gets starter snaps. In season-long, this is a week to watch his snap counts, though you need to be ahead of the curve in DFS, making him an interesting tournament play if you’re putting together a large number of lineups.

TEs
Ryan Griffin: It appears as if Griffin is the starter for the Texans, and although it’s scary, his matchup is pretty dang good this week. There were seven tight ends who posted TE1 numbers against the Patriots last year, including Griffin who posted 61 yards and a touchdown in their Week 3 meeting. He needed just six targets to do it, though it’s important to note that Will Fuller was not active for that game, so his target share was higher than it typically was. Griffin is the definition of a high-risk streaming option, but one who’s involved in a projected shootout. He’s going to be extremely low-owned, but you know how there’s always that one tight end who has a surprisingly good week? Well, it could be him this week.

Rob Gronkowski: When Gronkowski has been healthy, you play him and this is no different. It’s not ridiculous to predict double-digit targets in this matchup. The Texans brought in Tyrann Mathieu to help solidify their safety position and help out with players like Gronkowski, but he hasn’t been the same player over the last few years, allowing a 70 percent catch rate in coverage. With the pieces they had in place last year, the Texans allowed seven different tight ends to score at least 14.3 PPR points against them, including Gronkowski himself who totaled eight catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. He’s the TE1 and should be worth the price of admission in DFS.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

Total: 46.0
Line: MIN by 6.5

QBs
Jimmy Garoppolo: So much for easing into the season, eh? After finishing last year on a tear, Garoppolo will play on the road against a healthy Vikings defense that allowed just three quarterbacks to throw for more than one touchdown last year, and just one of them quarterbacks finished as a top-15 quarterback that week. When you’re lacking clear-cut red zone options like Garoppolo is, he’s likely to pick up where he left off last year when he threw just six touchdowns in five games. It helps that he’s had an entire offseason to digest the Kyle Shanahan offense, but playing in Minnesota is one of the toughest things to do, so you’re better off looking a different direction this week. There are other streaming options who’ll deliver safer performances with more upside. Garoppolo is just a middling QB2 this week and should not be used in DFS.

Kirk Cousins: After what was a brutal preseason, Cousins catches somewhat of a break in Week 1, as he’ll play the 49ers without Rueben Foster at linebacker, which is a welcomed relief. The 49ers did add Richard Sherman this offseason, but he’s not the same player he once was and will have a difficult time trying to defend Stefon Diggs. The 49ers front-seven generated just a 5.23 sack percentage last year, which ranked 26th in the NFL. Taking Foster out of the lineup is unlikely to help that, though, as the 49ers will be starting three linebackers who were drafted outside the top four rounds. Still, their front-four is pretty stout when compared to the Vikings offensive line, so I don’t think Cousins is as safe as some think. This is likely to be a lower-scoring affair and one where the Vikings may try to move the ball on the ground considering the lack of linebacker talent on the 49ers. Cousins should be looked at as a high-end QB2 in season-long, but not one I’d use in cash games.

RBs
Alfred Morris and Matt Breida: After watching Jerick McKinnon tear his ACL, the 49ers have some figuring out to do. Fortunately, you don’t really want to use either of them in an ideal world this week. The Vikings allowed just 3.7 yards per attempt last year (ranked fifth in the NFL), including just 2.9 yards per attempt at home. Morris looked fantastic in his preseason debut, racking up 84 yards on 17 carries, but preseason and regular season are two different things. I’m not even 100 percent positive that Morris will start, but he’s been a much better early-down running back throughout his career than most realize. His 4.8 yards per carry last year highlighted his ability to still get it done. In a tough matchup, he’s nothing more than an RB4 who’ll need to score to be worthy of a start in fantasy. Breida missed almost all of the preseason with a separated shoulder, so he’s another player to be iffy about for Week 1. It’s clear that this backfield isn’t one you should attack in Week 1, though Breida’s role in the pass-game should keep him in the RB3/RB4 territory, but he’s riskier than usual. I wouldn’t play either of them in tournament lineups this week, and we’ll reassess the situation once we see how the snaps are divided.

Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray: There’s been a lot of speculation as to how big of a role that Murray will have in the offense this year, but the truth is that nobody outside the organization knows. Yes, Cook was a workhorse at the start of last season, but Murray was dealing with an injury, and that was also under a different offensive coordinator. Like I said, nobody really knows. The game-script should favor the run-game in this one anyway, so they’ll both likely be involved. The 49ers will be without their only linebacker (Rueben Foster) who is graded as above replacement-level, so this is an area the Vikings should attack. I’d feel comfortable trotting Cook out as a middle-of-the-pack RB2, as the 49ers did allow 13 RB2 performances last year, which ranked as the seventh-most in the league. Murray should be approached with a bit more caution and I wouldn’t want to use him as anything more than an emergency flex player. I’d consider Cook in tournaments but fade both of them in cash games.

WRs
Marquise Goodwin: After hearing about how great the connection between him and Jimmy Garoppolo all offseason, but it’s unlikely we see much of that connection in Week 1 when he runs into Xavier Rhodes. There was essentially one game where Rhodes looked bad last year, though most were watching on Thanksgiving when Marvin Jones tagged them for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Rhodes was in coverage for one of them, but that was the only touchdown he allowed all season. If the Vikings give anyone shadow coverage, it’ll be Goodwin. Rhodes defended the go-route (Goodwin’s money route) nine times in 2017, allowing just three catches for 75 scoreless yards. This isn’t a week where you should be jumping to put Goodwin into your lineup, as it’s hard for me to say he’s anything more than a boom/bust WR4. If you want to take a shot in DFS, he can hit a big play and pay off, but I wouldn’t bank on it.

Pierre Garcon: Since being injured last year, the group of pass-catchers he’s returning to appears much more talented. We’ve never seen him play with Garoppolo, so it’s tough to say if there’ll be nearly as many targets, as Garcon was on pace for 134 targets before going down last year. It’s likely that he’s still the possession receiver underneath. Garcon will likely match-up with Trae Waynes, who played much better than expected last year, but he’s not a big physical cornerback who’ll overpower Garcon. It’s likely going to be a five-catch, 50-yard performance for Garcon and he’s never been a big touchdown scorer, as he’s never scored more than six touchdowns in one season. He’s a low-upside WR4 this week, though his floor should be relatively safe.

Trent Taylor: It seems as if Taylor will be on the field in 3WR sets over rookie Dante Pettis, though I’m not sure how long that lasts. He did play well with Garoppolo last year, but offers little versatility around the formation. He was a full-time player down the stretch with Garoppolo where he totaled 20 targets, 17 receptions, 191 yards, and a touchdown in those five games, so he’s efficient with his targets, but they’re limited. He was supposed to match-up with 40-year-old Terence Newman, but he decided to retire last week, which means he’ll see either first-round pick Mike Hughes or Mackensie Alexander. There’s some inexperience there, but not enough to upgrade Taylor significantly. Taylor is likely a decent WR5-type play, but he’s a boring option that doesn’t offer a big enough ceiling to play in standard leagues.

Stefon Diggs: It’s time to find out who Kirk Cousins favors in the offense, and don’t think that just because Adam Thielen is the primary slot receiver that it means he’s the most-targeted. Remember that it’s a new offense with a new quarterback. Diggs’ skill-set might actually fit Cousins better, as he’s more willing to take shots down the field. Being on the perimeter the majority of time means that he’ll see Richard Sherman the majority of time, someone who can’t handle Diggs in man coverage. I’d expect them to play more of a zone coverage because of this, though Diggs is still my favorite play of the Vikings wide receivers. One thing to keep in mind is that Cousins hasn’t ever targeted one receiver more than 6.9 times per game on average. While that may have been a product of the offense he played in, most quarterbacks show their tendencies over a three-year period. This doesn’t figure to be a high-volume game out of Cousins, so Diggs will have to make his targets count. I’d feel confident starting him as a WR2. I’d likely wait a week before trusting any of the Vikings in cash lineups, as there are safer options.

Adam Thielen: As mentioned in the Diggs paragraph, the fact that Thielen is going to primarily play the slot role doesn’t mean he’ll see the 143 targets that he did last year, as it’s a new offense with a new quarterback. Prior to Pat Shurmur taking over as the offensive coordinator, Thielen was just a guy. While I don’t think it goes back to that, it’s fair to wonder if Thielen will see even 110 targets. Kirk Cousins has never targeted a wide receiver more than 6.9 times per game, which amounts to 110.4 targets in a season. If we like Stefon Diggs as much as we say (I know I do), it’s fair to wonder who’ll see more targets. Thielen is also reportedly dealing with a leg injury that knocked him out of practice last Tuesday, though they say he’s fine. His matchup will be against K’Waun Williams in the slot, as Richard Sherman will slide him back into that role. When Williams played the slot last year, he allowed 37 receptions on 47 targets (though with just one touchdown), including 11 receptions on 11 targets to Larry Fitzgerald in Week 4. It’s a solid matchup, though there shouldn’t be a whole lot of passing going on with the Vikings. Thielen should present a WR2/3-type floor with top-12 upside if he scores. You aren’t getting a discount to play him in DFS, though, so he’s more of a tournament option than a cash one.

TEs
George Kittle: After missing the majority of the preseason with a separated shoulder, it’s tough to expect Kittle to walk back into a full-time role, especially when Garrett Celek is a very competent backup. In fact, it shouldn’t surprise you if Celek plays more snaps as he’s the better run-blocker of the two. If you’re playing Kittle, it’s only in tournaments as a potentially low-owned option, though many may be thinking along the same lines considering the tough matchups for the 49ers wide receivers. It didn’t matter last year, as there were just four tight ends who posted TE1 numbers against the Vikings.

Kyle Rudolph: With Kirk Cousins coming to town, there are high hopes for Rudolph, though when Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook are being propped up as top-12 options at their positions, you know someone is going to let you down. You should keep in mind that Rudolph has only finished as a top-eight tight end twice in his seven seasons, and both years came with Pat Shurmur as the offensive coordinator. While he’s gone, Cousins has targeted the tight end position relatively heavily, though that may have been a product of Jay Gruden’s offense. It’s tough to tell, but this week could be a big one for Rudolph, as the 49ers will be without their top linebacker Rueben Foster, and their three starting linebackers were all drafted in the fifth-round or later. On top of that, they let Eric Reid walk in free agency, which leaves Jaquiski Tartt as their starting strong safety who will help out in coverage. Tartt is a former second-round pick, but he’s far from proven, as he’s allowed three touchdowns on 45 targets over the last two seasons. If the offensive line cannot stop the 49ers front-four, Rudolph could be the primary beneficiary. He’s a TE1 this week and one you should throw in a few tournament lineups.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

Total: 45.0
Line: TEN by 1.5

QBs
Marcus Mariota: Under a new coaching regime, it’s always a bit difficult to project how plays will be called to start the year, though it shouldn’t be as hard as we think in Week 1 for the Titans. They’re on the road, but favorites to win. Any time you can get a win on the road, it’s a huge accomplishment, so expect a very conservative game-plan out of Matt LaFleur against the Dolphins. Their secondary is quite improved, as Xavien Howard stepped-up late in the season, they have one of the better safeties in Reshad Jones, and they drafted the always useful Minkah Fitzpatrick. The issue is that they lost Ndamukong Suh, who was a major disruption up the middle. Mariota should be efficient when he does throw, as he’ll likely have some time, but don’t expect many risks in this game. He’s likely a QB2 who has limited upside.

Ryan Tannehill: In his first game since December 11th of 2016, Tannehill will be at home against the Titans. Unfortunately, things haven’t gotten any better on the offensive line since he left, and the receiver they added to replace Jarvis Landry is Danny Amendola. Not the greatest of times in the Tannehill residence. The Titans aren’t the worst of opponents, but they aren’t the best, either. The front-five is going to bring pressure, as the combination of DaQuan Jones, Bennie Logan, and Jurrell Casey is pretty nasty. The cornerbacks are also a plus for the Titans, so expect Tannehill to find his running backs/tight ends early and often, which doesn’t often amount to fantasy points. Tannehill has some mobility, which could add some numbers, but you can find a better streaming option for Week 1. He’s just a low-end QB2.

RBs
Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis: On our podcast the other day, I made the statement, “don’t draft a Titans running back, as they’ll be too inconsistent. Instead, use them in DFS when we have a clear game-script. Well, this would be one to consider a Henry game, as the Titans should be able to win this game, even on the road. Worst case scenario, they’re down in a close game. This should be a game where Henry totals a minimum of 15 carries with upside for more. The Dolphins lost Ndamukong Suh on the defensive line and will be starting Raekwon McMillan at middle linebacker in his first NFL game. It’s a new look for the Titans offense, too, as there’s almost no tape on what their playbook will look like. Even with Suh on the line last year, the Dolphins allowed 13 different running backs rack up at least 10 standard fantasy points against them. Consider Henry a rock-solid RB2 this week. As for Lewis, it’s not a terrible matchup for him either, as there were six running backs who totaled five or more receptions against the Dolphins last year. I don’t believe there’ll be much volume in this passing-game this week, though, making Lewis an iffy RB3 who has a lower floor than most in his range. He does have tournament appeal, however, as three of the top five performances they allowed last year were to Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Rex Burkhead, who all combined for just 23 carries. They all caught touchdowns, though.

Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: All of the talk about Gore stealing work from Drake will end as soon as the Dolphins fall behind in games. The young Drake is best-suited for the team who wants to quickly move down the field, while Gore is the type of running back to eat up clock. If you can draw the narrative that the Dolphins will lead in more than a handful of situations, yeah, Gore will be relevant. Drake is the best running back in this backfield and the touch split will show that, even after just one week. To know that the Titans are favored by just one is huge for the Dolphins backfield, as it says they should keep the game competitive. The issue with liking any of them too much this week is that the Titans are continually underrated as a run defense. They allowed just 3.6 yards per carry in 2017 (fourth-best) and have finished as the No. 9 and No. 4 defense against fantasy running backs over the last two years. They then added Bennie Logan to the defensive line, making life even easier on Jurrell Casey and DaQuan Jones. No running back was able to muster up more than 77 rushing yards against them all season until Todd Gurley finally tagged them for 118 in Week 16 when he was on his terror in the fantasy playoffs. If there are points to be had, it’s through the air, as there were eight running backs who totaled at least 40 receiving yards. Drake is the best-bet, but there’s risk, making him a high-end RB3 this week. He should be nowhere near a cash lineup and I’d hesitate to play him in tournaments. Gore should be left on benches (or the waiver wire). For those wondering, I wouldn’t consider Kalen Ballage, even if he is a great receiver. I just don’t see him getting more than a handful of snaps early in the year.

WRs
Corey Davis: After what was reportedly a great offseason with Marcus Mariota, Davis is set to be the alpha-dog of the offense in 2018. The player standing in-between him this week is Xavien Howard, who finished the 2017 season extremely strong. After struggling for much of the first 11 weeks of the season, Howard allowed just eight receptions for 119 scoreless yards on 28 targets in his coverage. Throughout training camp, he was reportedly handling Devante Parker, who is an above-average NFL wide receiver. Davis is a monster after the catch but getting the ball in his hands may prove to be more difficult than most think against Howard. Because of that, he should be played as a WR3 who is no sure thing. I have no issue someone as talented as him in tournaments, as we don’t have a giant sample size to judge Howard, but you don’t need to risk it in cash lineups.

Rishard Matthews: After missing essentially the entire offseason, it was announced that Matthews agreed to a contract extension with the Titans. There was reportedly an injury, though it was on the hush. It recently came out that it was a torn meniscus, which is essentially a Grade 2 or 3 strain. Considering it’s a new offense, there may be a learning curve that prevents him from playing a full-time role in the offense. There will be the whole “revenge” narrative against his old team, but that’s not something that should weigh on your decision. He’ll see Bobby McCain the majority of time, which has been a good thing for most wide receivers over the last few years. Over the last two years, he’s allowed a 70 percent catch rate in coverage, which is among the highest in the NFL, though he was covering the slot, which will inflate those numbers a bit. Still, Matthews is a risky WR4/5 with little work under his belt in a game they shouldn’t have to throw a whole lot. All it takes is one long play for him to pay off, but I’d likely ensure he’s a full-time player before plugging him in anywhere.

Kenny Stills: After watching Devante Parker miss three weeks of the preseason with a broken finger, Stills is the clear-cut No. 1 option in the Dolphins passing game as we head into Week 1. The Titans used to be a cakewalk on the schedule, but not anymore. They’ll likely have Adoree Jackson stay at RCB with Malcolm Butler manning LCB to start the season, and both are tough matchups. Jackson started his rookie season struggling, but grew as the year went on, he became a cornerback to avoid in matchups. Adding Butler should only help him figure out his role on the defense and not try to do too much. Bottom line, it’s going to be a tougher matchup for Stills this week. The targets should be there, as the Titans should be able to keep the Dolphins run-game in check, but the issue is that it’s unlikely Ryan Tannehill has time to hit Stills deep. He should be viewed as a semi-risky WR3/4, but it helps that Parker was ruled out, as the targets have to go somewhere.

Albert Wilson: After hearing that Devante Parker was ruled out, Wilson needed to make it into The Primer this week. He’s going to be starting in 2WR sets, which makes him a full-time player (duh, Mike). While I believe he’s best-suited for the slot, Adam Gase says he’s more than that. Whatever the case, Wilson will match-up with a combination of Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler, who both happen to be top-tier talents in the league. The safety Kevin Byard is also one of the best in the league, so it’s going to be tough to get Wilson the ball consistently. Even had Parker played this week he would have been a WR5-type play, so I’m not going to recommend you play Wilson, either.

Danny Amendola: After Adam Gase made the statement that Albert Wilson is not a slot receiver, Amendola’s role was pretty clear in the offense, though I’m not sure why. He’s never totaled more than 689 yards in his entire career, and he played with Tom Brady for five of his nine years in the league. If you think Ryan Tannehill is the answer to fantasy relevance, give me what you’re having. In all seriousness, there could be a window of opportunity in this matchup, as Amendola has practiced against Mike Vrabel‘s defense (kind of) over the last few years. The pass-rush that gets to Tannehill is what led to Jarvis Landry getting 150-plus targets a season. Amendola should be the check-down machine this weekend, so even though it might amount to just six catches for 50 yards, he should be a high-floor WR4 option in PPR leagues if you’re looking for an emergency option who is available on most waiver wires, though I would avoid him in tournaments.

TEs
Delanie Walker: It feels like we continually underrate Walker, but this year there’s legitimate reason for concern. He’s now 34 years old and part of a brand-new offense that is reportedly featuring Corey Davis. On top of that, they have Taywan Taylor and Dion Lewis, who will both eat up some targets over the middle of the field. Against the Dolphins, Walker should be able to take advantage of a weak linebacker corps, and although safety Reshad Jones is one of the better safeties in the league, his best attributes are used in the run-game. Walker has missed practice over the last few weeks due to a player coming down on his toe, though he’s said that he’s going to be ready to go for the opener. The Dolphins allowed nine TE1 performances last year, which was the fourth-most in the league. Provided Walker is healthy, he should return TE1 value and be safe enough in cash games.

Mike Gesicki: Even though he’s a rookie, Gesicki is likely to be the starting tight end for the Dolphins. The Titans weakness on defense is their linebacking corps, though it’s not due to lack of draft pick equity, as they have five linebackers who have been selected in the first two rounds of the draft. It didn’t help them much last year when they allowed nine tight ends total at least 10.6 PPR points against them. With all the talent at safety and cornerback, you might see Gesicki targeted more than expected, though it’s hard to recommend a rookie tight end in his first game. He’s a boom/bust TE2, even if the matchup is a decent one.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants

Total: 43.5
Line: JAX by 3.0

QBs
Blake Bortles: After the way the Giants defense looked towards the end of 2017 and the way that Bortles looked during that time, there’s probably a lot of streaming fantasy enthusiasts who think he’s a great play in Week 1, but I urge you to approach with caution. The Giants were a team who turned on their head coach, though losing Jason Pierre-Paul this offseason will most definitely affect the pass-rush. The issue is that Bortles is on the road with no clear-cut No. 1 option in the passing game. Think about it – he’s never had to live life without Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, and Allen Hurns before. It’s likely why he struggled in the preseason while throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns. Bortles has been a streaky quarterback throughout his career and it appears as if he may be in a funk. Under a new coaching staff while at home, I expect the Giants to at least try to regain the trust of their fans. It’s not a time where you have to trust Bortles. Seriously, just wait until you see him get back on track. This game also has one of the lowest over/unders of the week.

Eli Manning: Expect to see a different Eli Manning in 2018, but maybe just don’t watch the game in Week 1. The Jaguars defense is the best in the league and it’s not all that close, either. The effect that Pat Shurmur will have on the Giants offense is massive, but not enough to overcome the Jags defense who allowed just two top-12 performances against them last year. Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo. You aren’t putting Manning in that conversation. Let’s be real – you aren’t starting Manning this week, even as a punt-play in tournaments. But make sure you stop by and check him out next week, as his splits with/without Odell Beckham are staggering.

RBs
Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon: We all know the bread and butter for the Jaguars offense, so it wasn’t shocking to see them go out and sign the best offensive lineman that free agency had to offer. Andrew Norwell will be a welcomed addition to Fournette’s path up the middle, though the Giants made it relatively easy last year, allowing 4.21 yards per carry.  The Giants are re-working their front-seven, so he may be catching them at the right time. Most don’t realize how dominant Fournette was at the start of last season before he hurt his ankle. Here’s his first six games of 2017 prior to his injury: Week 1: 21.4, Week2: 14.1, Week 3: 17.0, Week 4: 24.5, Week 5: 31.4, and Week 6: 21.8 points. So, he scored more than 21 PPR points in four of the six games, while never falling below 14.1 points. If healthy, Fournette will win fantasy titles. You should be playing him as an RB1 in this matchup. It would be great if he were at home, but given Bortles’ struggles in the preseason, I’m guessing you can bet on 20-plus touches for Fournette in this game, making him cash-game and tournament viable. It’s unlikely that Yeldon will be needed very much, but he’s going to catch a handful of passes each game, making him a desperation option in PPR leagues.

Saquon Barkley: Welcome to the NFL, rookie. It’s not the best matchup you could ask for, but the Jaguars pass-defense is even more daunting. The Jaguars defensive front allowed a somewhat high 4.3 yards per carry in 2017, though they stopped opponents when it mattered most, allowing just seven rushing touchdowns to running backs. It does help that this is a new-look Giants team where the Jags have little tape to prepare with, though it’s still somewhat worrisome that Barkley has missed the last couple weeks of practice with a hamstring strain. He’s reportedly okay, but I wouldn’t expect him to say anything else. In his first start, Barkley is still a low-end RB1, especially in PPR formats, though I’d ensure he was completely healthy before plugging him into cash lineups. As for tournaments, he’s going to be somewhat heavily owned by the casual public, so it’s probably not even worth the risk there.

WRs
Keelan Cole: There’s a lot that’s changed since last year, as Cole no longer has to deal with Marqise Lee or Allen Hurns, but now has Donte Moncrief and D.J. Chark added to the mix. In the three games without Lee out of the lineup last year, Cole totaled a robust 30 targets that amounted to 17 receptions for 327 yards and a touchdown. He was the No. 3 wide receiver in fantasy during that time. The issue with relying on that going forward has to do with Blake Bortles, who has been a streaky quarterback throughout his career and he’s looked horrendous this preseason. We don’t know if the Giants will use Janoris Jenkins in shadow coverage, but my guess would be that they don’t. Jenkins is typically one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, but was forced to go on injured reserve last year after requiring ankle surgery. There are a few warning signs in this game that make me lower Cole, though he’s likely to lead the team in targets. If Bortles is competent and if the Giants don’t shadow Cole with Jenkins, he’s going to be fine, but that’s a whole lot of ifs. Consider Cole a risky WR3 this week and not one who I’d trust in cash game lineups. He does make for an interesting tournament play, however.

Donte Moncrief: After failing to make it work with Andrew Luck the last handful of years, Moncrief will go and try his hand with Blake Bortles. While some would wonder if Moncrief is actually a starter, the Jags told us he was once Marqise Lee went down for the year, as he played the first-team snaps in place of Lee. There’s been nothing that we have to be optimistic about with Moncrief, as there was nothing buzzing out of camp around him and Bortles has looked like his 2016-self once again. The matchup may actually be a good one against Eli Apple, who was dangerously close to getting cut under the old regime, though the Giants said that he’s re-found his game. They sure hope so after he allowed six touchdowns on just 62 targets last year. If there’s one thing Moncrief did well with the Colts, it was handle red zone targets. Because of that, he’s on the WR5 radar, but if he doesn’t score, he’s not going to help your fantasy team. He wouldn’t be on my DFS radar.

Dede Westbrook: As of now, we’re assuming that Westbrook plays in 3WR sets, and it’s pretty fair to assume considering how the Jaguars distributed the snaps once Marqise Lee went down. It was really odd to see a guy who runs a 4.3-second 40-yard dash not catch a pass longer than 29 yards last year, and that’s despite seeing 51 targets. It’s likely due to Blake Bortles struggling with the deep ball over the last two years. On passes that have traveled over 20 yards, he’s now completed just 31-of-127 passes for 1,004 yards, three touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Those are the worst marks in the NFL over that time. This preseason, Bortles completed 0-of-6 of those attempts. Understand that because of Bortles inconsistency on the deep ball, Westbrook is going to struggle to be predictable. He falls into a category where he’s the No. 3 wide receiver on a run-first team with a weak quarterback. It’s fair to say that you shouldn’t actively play him outside of a crazy contrarian tournament-play.

Odell Beckham Jr: It’s good to see Beckham’s name back in The Primer, as he’s one of the best wide receivers in the game. Fun fact on him: Since coming into the NFL, Beckham has totaled 25 or more PPR points in 34 percent of his games while no other wide receiver has cracked 28 percent since 2011. His WR1 percentage sits at 48.9 percent, while the closest behind him is 44.0 percent. He’s very good at the game of football. This week should be a fun one as he’s slated to see Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye in coverage, the best duo in all of football. They’ll likely have Ramsey shadow him, but it’s not as if Bouye is a much better situation. While most shadow cornerbacks don’t go into the slot, the Jaguars will let Ramsey if they believe it’ll help their situation. While Beckham has reportedly re-found his love for the game, Ramsey is often able to get into wide receivers’ heads, and it led to A.J. Green choke-slamming him last year. Can Beckham keep his cool with Ramsey chatting away? It adds another wrinkle, but let’s be clear, you don’t draft Beckham and sit him in season-long leagues. He’s not going to be inside my top-10 wide receivers, but he’s a high-end WR2 who will likely get his. Stay far away in cash lineups, but I’m fine plugging him in a few tournaments lineups.

Sterling Shepard: The Pat Shurmur era begins and I’m guessing no one will be happier than Shepard, as he’s going to be a big part of this offense, even with Odell Beckham back on the field. Prior to Shurmur taking over as the offensive coordinator for the Vikings, Adam Thielen had 67 targets for 45 receptions, 645 yards, and two touchdowns in 39 career games. In the 25 games with Shurmur, Thielen saw 200 targets for 135 receptions, 1,879 yards, and eight touchdowns. I’m not saying that Thielen shouldn’t have had more under the previous regimes, but Shurmur brought him to life and made him a household name. The Jaguars lost Aaron Colvin this offseason and have replaced him with D.J. Hayden to man the slot, which isn’t a bad thing for Shepard. Hayden is a former first-round pick who is now on his third NFL team in as many years. He did play better last year for the Lions, but they had him covering the perimeter, while the slot is a completely different position. He’s struggled out of the slot over the years, making Shepard a solid WR3 start, though I wouldn’t go bananas with him in DFS. It’s still the Jags, who allowed the second-fewest points per game last year.

TEs
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: We didn’t get to see much of Seferian-Jenkins this preseason, as he played just 42 snaps and saw two targets the entire time. The injury to Marqise Lee did increase his likelihood of red zone targets, as both Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook aren’t going to be mistaken for massive red zone targets any time soon. Seferian-Jenkins has never been regarded as a good run-blocker, so the Jags clearly have a role for him in the passing game, and he’s about to go against the Giants team who allowed a tight end touchdown in 11-of-16 games in 2017. There were seven games last year where they allowed a tight end to score 15 or more PPR points, while no other team in the NFL allowed more than five of those performances. It’s a new coaching staff, so we can’t automatically draw those type of conclusions, but they obviously have issues defending the position. Seferian-Jenkins should be considered a high-end TE2 streamer and one to consider in your DFS tournament lineups. I simply cannot trust him in cash because, well… Bortles.

Evan Engram: Most would automatically assume that because the Jaguars defense has Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye covering the wide receivers, the tight ends must play well, right? Nope. In fact, the Jaguars allowed just two tight ends to top 11 PPR points all season. One was Ricky Seals-Jones, who nobody would’ve realistically been prepared for, while the other was Greg Kittle in Week 16 when he caught three passes for 42 yards and a touchdown, so not exactly a “massive” performance. With Odell Beckham back in the lineup and Saquon Barkley in the backfield, Engram is going to see a much lesser target share than the 115 targets he saw last year. Here’s a chart I posted in his player profile this offseason:

While I’m not saying this will be the case in 2018, it’s very telling as to where his production came from last year. He should be looked at as a low-end TE1 this week against the Jags, but not one you should target in DFS.