San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers
Total: 47.0
Line: LAC by 10.5
QBs
C.J. Beathard: It’s an unfortunate injury to Jimmy Garoppolo, but Beathard is the next man up. He played in six games last year, totaling 1,430 yards, four touchdowns, and six interceptions. In the games he played, here’s the breakdown of targets: Carlos Hyde 50, Marquise Goodwin 31, Pierre Garcon 23, George Kittle 21, Aldrick Robinson 20, Trent Taylor 19, Matt Breida 18, Garrett Celek 17, Kendrick Bourne 15, Kyle Juszczyk 10, Others 8. Needless to say, he loved targeting the running backs/fullbacks, as they accounted for 78 of his targets, over 30 percent of the target share. The Chargers have played two excellent pass-catching backs the last two weeks (Todd Gurley and LeSean McCoy) and limited them to just nine catches for 80 yards, so this matchup may not suit him very well. They will be without Joey Bosa again, but it shouldn’t matter much in this game. Beathard isn’t on the streaming radar.
Philip Rivers: The struggles to the Chargers start of the season definitely don’t have to do with their offense, as Rivers is averaging 302 yards per game and has now thrown eight touchdowns to just one interception. The addition of Mike Williams to this offense has been massive and, in this matchup, Rivers can pretty much choose whatever direction he wants. The 49ers have now allowed eight passing scores through three games, and are now down their top cornerback Richard Sherman and potentially their top safety, Jaquiski Tartt who missed Week 3 with a shoulder injury. Granted, they’ve played against some of the best quarterbacks in the league, but Rivers is right there in that conversation. The 49ers run-defense has been pretty stout, so it’s possible that Rivers accounts for all of their touchdowns in this matchup where they’re projected for 28.3 points, or four touchdowns. Rivers is a must-start QB1 and safe for cash games.
RBs
Matt Breida and Alfred Morris: Before you automatically plug Breida into your fantasy lineup, you’ll want to check his status throughout the week. He left the game against the Chiefs in what looked to be a season-threatening non-contact injury, though he returned for limited play at the end of the game. They’ve identified the injury as a hyperextended knee, which doesn’t seem all that great. It’s very possible that he may not be at full strength and limited in his role, so he becomes a very risky RB3, even with Beathard under center, who has targeted running backs on over 30 percent of his career pass attempts. Outside of Todd Gurley, the Chargers haven’t allowed a running back more than 10.8 PPR points against them, which included LeSean McCoy and Kareem Hunt. Morris is the one who has the sure workload, though this game projects to be a blowout, making him risky as well considering he doesn’t contribute in the passing game. Update: It looks like Breida is extremely iffy for this contest, making a risky play even if he’s active.
Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: Any time you have an elite running back who is at home as a ten-point favorite, you have to go all-in, right? Well, despite their woes in the secondary, the 49ers have actually played the run quite well this year, and a large part of that has to do with the addition of rookie Fred Warner, who has played lights out. They also got Rueben Foster back last week, who was playing near a Pro Bowl level last year, so this run defense may be better than everyone expected. They allowed two touchdowns to Kareem Hunt last week (both goal-line plunges), but 44 yards on 18 carries is hardly worth bragging about. In fact, no running back has reached 50 yards on the ground against them through three games. They have allowed Dalvin Cook and Theo Riddick to combine for 15 catches and 102 yards through the air, but will Rivers need to check-down as much in this game? Gordon is still an RB1, though the passing-game could outshine him this week. Ekeler will be mixed-in, but knowing about the matchup and gamescript, it’s unlikely he’ll amount to more than RB4 production without a big play at some point.
WRs
Marquise Goodwin: He was active for all six games that Beathard played last year, yet he didn’t top four receptions in any of those games. In fact, there were just two games in which he caught more than two balls. You should know that Pierre Garcon was active for just three of the six games, so it’s not as if he was stealing the targets/receptions. Goodwin did connect with him down the field quite a bit, though it’ll be tough to see it happening against Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams this week. While the numbers in coverage don’t look great, there’s been some phenomenal throws made against them. After playing against the Chiefs and Rams wide receivers, Goodwin will seem like a cakewalk. Consider him just a weak WR4/5 in a tough matchup.
Pierre Garcon: He was only active for three of Beathard’s six starts in 2017, but he did produce in two of those games. He totaled 23 targets in the three games, posting finishes of 5/55/0, 5/49/0, and 2/17/0. Not great numbers, but it’s better than what Garcon has done this year. You have to wonder if he’s towards the end of the line and has begun to fall off the proverbial cliff for wide receivers. He’s 32 years old, so it’s not as if we expected miracles. Knowing he doesn’t score touchdowns anymore (never really did), it’s hard to suggest taking a risk on him with Beathard under center. Even with a pass-heavier offense and Goodwin sidelined for essentially two weeks, it netted him just 14 targets through three games. He’ll see a mixture of Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams, making him a non-factor in Week 4.
Keenan Allen: The emergence of Mike Williams has eaten into the production of Allen this year, though there’s still no question about who the No. 1 option is in the offense. Allen leads the team in targets (26), receptions (17), and yards (219), though he’s been somewhat overshadowed by Williams’ touchdowns. Looking at the matchups for them in Week 4, both have great outlooks. Allen is going to match-up with K’Waun Williams the majority of the day, as he runs over 50 percent of his routes from the slot. Williams has allowed 9/145/0 on 13 targets in coverage this year and has continuously been an average cornerback during his three years in the NFL. With Richard Sherman out, the 49ers are going to have to move some pieces around and it’s going to help Allen wherever he goes. This is a great week to buy into Allen in DFS, as he’s a clear-cut WR1.
Mike Williams: It didn’t take as long as some thought, but Williams has arrived on the fantasy scene in a big way, scoring three touchdowns over the last two weeks, including one right on top of Marcus Peters. When targeting Williams, Rivers has a perfect 158.3 QB Rating, as Williams has been the apple of his eye in the red zone. Most worry about Tyrell, but he ran the exact same amount of routes that Mike did last week. The Chargers drafted Williams with Tyrell on the roster, so nothing has changed in the scenario where they think Williams can be a game-changer. With no Richard Sherman, the 49ers will be forced to have Jimmie Ward and Akhello Witherspoon cover him, and this is great news for Williams, as that duo has combined to allow 17 catches for 236 yards and five touchdowns on just 26 targets in coverage this year. Williams is on the WR3 radar and should be able to produce even with Allen having a big game against this defense.
Tyrell Williams: He’s still playing as the No. 2/3 in the offense, but he’s just not producing because Mike Williams is better in every facet of the game. Similar to last year, the Chargers seem content with just having Tyrell out there as a full-time player, but targeting him just a few times per game. Of the 81 wide receivers who have seen at least 10 targets, he ranks 69th in yards per route run. Knowing how well Rivers has played, it’s hard to see that changing. Keep in mind that this matchup is so good that Rivers may be able to go any which way he wants, making Williams a great pivot play in tournaments, as both Allen and Mike Williams will be heavily owned.
TEs
George Kittle: Of the 224 pass attempts that Beathard had last year, 38 of them went to one of the tight ends. That 17.0 percent target share is below the league average, though Kittle was out for one of those games. Kittle played with Beathard in college, so it’s possible that those two have a connection that’s better than it traditionally would be with a backup quarterback. It’s also important to note that Garrett Celek ran just three pass routes last week, so it’s possible that Kittle is the full-time tight end for them moving forward. The Chargers have been tough on tight ends, though, as they were able to hold Travis Kelce to one catch for six yards in the opener and then Charles Clay to just two catches for 29 yards in Week 2. The 49ers are going to have to throw more than they’d like, so it’s possible Kittle gets six-plus targets in this game. Even with that, it’s hard to say he’s more than a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 with Beathard who threw just four touchdowns in six games last year.
Antonio Gates: After having Gates on the field for a very limited time in Weeks 1 and 2, they played him a lot more in Week 3 where he ran eight more pass routes than Virgil Green, something that hadn’t happened in the first two games. He was also targeted five times, which was a season-high. The 49ers have now allowed a tight end touchdown in each of their three games, though all three of the tight ends who caught the touchdown, it was their only catch of the game. While Travis Kelce didn’t score against them last week (his backup Demetrius Harris did), he did pile up 114 yards on six catches. Gates is far from the athlete that Kelce is nowadays, so while Gates may score a touchdown in this game, it’s also likely he ends up with two catches for 20 yards. He’s just a mediocre TE2 against the 49ers.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 51.0
Line: PIT by 3.0
QBs
Joe Flacco: Any time you have a game in Pittsburgh, you know it’s likely to be of the high-scoring variety, especially when the Steelers defense is in complete disarray. Despite Tyrod Taylor struggling to do anything, the Browns scored 21 points. Patrick Mahomes predictably lit them up for 42 points. Then ever Ryan without-the-magic-Fitzpatrick was able to post 27 points without a run-game. We don’t know if they’ll get safety Morgan Burnett back this week, but this game should be high-scoring. Despite the Steelers playing much better defense last year, the final score between the two teams in Pittsburgh was 39-38, where Flacco (who had a terrible year) threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns. Back with more weapons and a weaker Steelers secondary on primetime, Flacco is a viable streaming option, though there are a lot of them this week. It does help to know that Flacco has now thrown multiple touchdowns in six of his last eight games.
Ben Roethlisberger: Any time Roethlisberger is at home, you’ve got to play him. In his last 15 home games, he’s thrown for at least two touchdowns in 14 of them (lone exception was Jaguars last year) and thrown for 300-plus yards in eight of them. Knowing that both Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are problems for any secondary, it’s hard to see this streak end. The Ravens pass-defense allowed Andy Dalton to expose them for 265 yards and four touchdowns in Week 2 while on the road, and the Ravens will once again be without cornerback Jimmy Smith, who is serving a four-game suspension. The Ravens still haven’t allowed a quarterback to post more than 6.3 yards per attempt, but they’ve also played against Nathan Peterman and Case Keenum. If he was on the road I’d fade him, but not at home.
RBs
Alex Collins and Javorius Allen: Going back to the game these two teams played in Week 14 last year, both Collins and Allen were able to finish as top-15 PPR running backs, as Collins totaled 166 total yards and a touchdown, while Allen posted 57 total yards and two touchdowns. The Steelers run defense has looked better with the addition of Jon Bostic, though the competition hasn’t really had to run the ball on them, as it’s been too easy to move the ball through the air. The snap counts are nearly identical through between these two (Allen 111, Collins 104), so it’s going to be difficult to project them from week-to-week. They’ve allowed just two receptions per week to opposing running backs, so Allen does suffer a bit there. I’d consider Collins the most likely one to score, making him a low-end RB2 while Allen is more of an upside RB3/flex-play.
James Conner: Are we back to reality with Conner, who some were saying was just as good as Le’Veon Bell? While we never believed that, Conner now has just 78 rushing yards on 23 carries (3.39 yards per carry) the last two weeks, though his goal-line plunge against the Chiefs salvaged a bad day in Week 2. He’s seeing 5.7 targets per game, so his value is still up there, but just don’t expect Bell-type numbers out of him. The Ravens run-defense has always been stout under John Harbaugh and this year isn’t much different, as they’ve allowed 3.85 yards per carry and one touchdown through three games. They’ve also allowed just 56 receiving yards to running backs in those games, which included LeSean McCoy, Joe Mixon, and Royce Freeman/Phillip Lindsay/Devontae Booker. They may get stud linebacker C.J. Mosely back for this game, though there’s no guarantee. The Steelers are projected to score at least three touchdowns in this game and Conner should have a hand in that. Bell had two 30-point games against the Ravens last year, but a lot was done in the receiving game. Conner needs to be played as a high-end RB2 in this contest.
WRs
Michael Crabtree: Many are already tired of the so-so production from Crabtree, but beware how upset you are, as his current 16-game pace is 139 targets, 80 receptions, 827 yards, and five touchdowns. That would’ve been enough to finish as a top-20 wide receiver last year, though it was a down year for wide receivers in general. The Steelers play a lot of zone and keep their cornerbacks on each side, which will put Crabtree against Artie Burns the majority of time. He was in danger of getting benched before last week and played just 25/73 snaps in that game. He’s now allowed 204 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage, which has come on just 13 targets. The issue for the Steelers is that his replacement, Coty Sensabaugh is even worse. This is a great matchup for Crabtree who needs to be in lineups as a WR3, at worst.
John Brown: While Crabtree has more targets and receptions than Brown, he’s got the edge in yards (222) and touchdowns (2) through three weeks. Both of them will have plus matchups this week, as Brown will see Joe Haden the majority of time. Haden used to be considered a shutdown cornerback, but we’re far from those days, as he’s been simply mediocre the last four years. Looking through the routes he’s struggled with in coverage, the curl route is near the top of the list, which Brown has done extremely well with. It’s likely due to Haden being worried he’ll get beat deep as he doesn’t have the speed to hang with most receivers anymore, so he’s leaving a cushion while playing in zone. It’s hard to sit Brown with the way he’s being trusted by Flacco, so keep him in lineups as a WR3 in what’s projected to be a high-scoring affair.
Willie Snead: It’s been a quiet 19 targets for Snead, but knowing they’re there is a good thing. In fact, he trails Crabtree by just three receptions and 13 yards on the season. The issue is that the Steelers best cornerback Mike Hilton covers the slot for them. He came in and stole the job from William Gay last year and although he hasn’t played as well this year, he’s still yet to allow a touchdown on 15 targets in coverage and has allowed just a 69.3 QB Rating when targeted. Snead is seeing more targets than his WR5/6 outlook, but he’ll have better matchups in the future.
Antonio Brown: There are some who are calling Brown the No. 2 wide receiver in Pittsburgh now and that’s cute. While Smith-Schuster has him beat in receptions and yardage, it’s been more about the matchups. Oddly enough, it’s something similar in Week 4 as Brown will tussle with veteran Brandon Carr while Smith-Schuster will get Tavon Young. The Steelers are going to move Brown around to create different matchups, so he’ll get away from Carr the same way A.J. Green did in their Week 2 matchup where he scored three touchdowns. They Bengals lined Green up in the slot to evade his coverage and that’s something the Steelers have done just 14.9 percent of the time in 2018, though I believe that spikes this week. Brown is always in lineups, but once again, it’s Smith-Schuster who has the better matchup on paper. Wait, is Brown the contrarian play now? Give me Brown versus any cornerback in the league.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: It’s been a magical season for Smith-Schuster, as he’s been taking full advantage of his situation, racking up at least 116 yards in each of the first three games. He’s now seen 30 targets over the last two games and there’s little reason to think that ends with the way he produced. He’s going to have the best matchup on the field this week, as Tavon Young has been destroyed in coverage to this point, allowing 8-of-9 targets to be completed for 92 yards and two touchdowns. Of the slot cornerbacks who’ve played at least one-quarter of their team’s snaps, Young has allowed the second-highest QB Rating (148.8) in his coverage. Smith-Schuster should continue to be in lineups as a low-end WR1 who is seeing more targets due to Le’Veon Bell‘s absence.
James Washington: With Justin Hunter inactive the last two weeks, Washington has run 87 pass routes, which is eerily close to Brown (101) and Smith-Schuster (100). While the production isn’t there yet, it can come at any time if the defense sells out to stop one of the other two threats. When that happens, Washington can step-up and be the guy. He’s going to match-up with Marlon Humphrey for a majority of his snaps, which isn’t an easy matchup by any means. He’s covered deep routes very well in his short time in the NFL, so this may not be the week to expect a breakout, though his snaps are impressive and will amount to production before long.
TEs
Mark Andrews: We’ve heard that Hayden Hurst was cleared to return to practice, though it’s hard to imagine he plays a significant role this week (if he plays at all). Many look at snaps when determining which tight end to play, but with tight ends you need to look at their routes run. Over the last two weeks, Andrews has run 42 routes, while Nick Boyle has run 26 of them indicating Andrews is the primary tight end for them. Knowing he can’t block, it makes sense. The Steelers have been brutal against tight ends this year, allowing 20 receptions for 240 yards and three touchdowns through three games, which is good enough for the second-most allowed to the position. In what’s projected to be a high-scoring affair, Andrews should be on the streaming radar.
Vance McDonald: Now that everyone and their grandmother knows who McDonald is after he created a stiff-arm for the historic highlight reels, it’s hard to say that he was one of my favorite sleepers prior to the season, though health got in the way. Many will wonder if it’s a one-week thing with him, but he’s now run 10 more snaps than Jesse James over the last two weeks, making him the tight end to own going forward. The Ravens have plenty to worry about with Smith-Schuster running over the middle of the field, though they have been one of the best teams against tight ends this season. Granted, they’ve played Charles Clay, Tyler Eifert, and Jake Butt, they’ve allowed just five catches for 53 yards to those three combined. Tony Jefferson has done a good job to this point and it’s hard to say that McDonald is a big test, but it’s easy to overlook him with all the star power in Pittsburgh. McDonald is a high-risk, high-reward TE2 this week, though there will be better streaming matchups.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Total: 56.0
Line: KC by 5.0
QBs
Patrick Mahomes: The current MVP of the 2018 season, Mahomes can do no wrong according to many. If you’ve watched the games, you know that he’s done a few things wrong, which is the scariest thing… If he puts it all together with the weapons and coaching he has available, the sky is the limit. The Broncos used to be a ferocious matchup and one to avoid, but after three weeks, it’s not looking all that scary. Each of Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, and Joe Flacco have all thrown for at least 277 yards against them, averaging a robust 8.2 yards per attempt. Looking through the starts for each of those guys, the Broncos defense should’ve feasted on them. It’s hard to see Mahomes falling off too much in this game, as the Broncos secondary just isn’t the same. In fact, they allowed 29 passing touchdowns last year, which ranked as the fifth-most in the league. Their run-defense is rock-solid, though, so expect Mahomes to carry his team again. He’s a must-play QB1 right now, though against Jacksonville next week may be a different story.
Case Keenum: It hasn’t been the start that Keenum or the Broncos had hoped for, as he’s thrown three touchdowns (none in the last two games) and five interceptions through three games. It’s not due to pressure, either, as he’s been pressured on just 28.1 percent of his drop-backs, which is 22nd in the league. Fortunately for him, he’ll play what is potentially the worst defense in the league this week. The Chiefs have now allowed 1,127 yards and eight touchdowns with just one interception through three games, though they have played against Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jimmy Garoppolo. The crazy part is that Roethlisberger didn’t even look good against them when he posted 452 yards and three touchdowns (I know, crazy). If you were to take the totals they’ve allowed and morph them into one quarterback, they’d be the No. 3 quarterback behind only Mahomes and Ryan Fitzpatrick. It’s not for the feint of heart, but Keenum is a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this week.
RBs
Kareem Hunt: After an impressive start to his career, Hunt has come back down to earth. Since Week 6 of last year, Hunt has totaled 227 carries that have netted 886 yards (3.90 yards per carry) and six touchdowns. That’s a span of 14 games, so it’s a decent sample size. You should also know that Andy Reid cut his snap count down in Week 3 to 61.3 percent, the lowest since his first NFL game (excluding Week 17 when he played five snaps). It could have been due to the game being out of reach, but his 18 carries for 44 yards wasn’t what you’d call great. The other concern is that he’s been targeted just three times through three games, which almost means he’s gamescript-proof, though we’ve seen him catch passes in the past. It seems Mahomes just doesn’t check-down nearly as much as Alex Smith did. The Broncos run-defense has been their one stable thing over the last two years, as they’ve allowed just 3.44 yards per carry over their last 19 games, though they have allowed 11 rushing scores in that time. Hunt remains on the RB1 radar because he’s going to be in when this high-scoring offense gets down near the goal-line, but there are some legitimate concerns.
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: It was hard to see the timeshare between Lindsay and Freeman in Week 3 because Lindsay was ejected for throwing a punch early in that game. Freeman didn’t disappoint, totaling 53 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries against a stingy Ravens run defense. It was his second touchdown in as many games, and fifth in six games if you count the preseason, so he’s not losing that goal-line role. We don’t know if the Broncos will discipline Lindsay for his punch, and though unlikely, it’s an added level of concern. In each of the three Chiefs games, there has been at least one running back to score 14.7 or more PPR points, including six running backs to eclipse the 11-PPR-point mark, so it’s possible that there’s room for both of these running backs to succeed in this high-scoring affair. I’d consider Lindsay the favorite in PPR leagues, while Freeman may have the slight edge in standard formats. Either way, they’re both in high-end RB3 territory.
WRs
Tyreek Hill: Well, we saw the down-week for Hill against the 49ers. Does it mean you should be worried? Nah. Knowing how much he relies on efficiency, this will happen from time-to-time. He’s going to match-up with a mixture of Bradley Roby, Adam Jones, and Chris Harris Jr, though Jones is questionable after missing last week with a hamstring injury. Can you imagine 35-year-old Jones out there on a less-than-100-percent hamstring covering Hill? That’s who he’d match-up with about 35 percent of the time, so look for them to exploit that. On top of that, Roby hasn’t been able to live up to his No. 1 promotion, allowing a 123.1 QB Rating in his coverage. Hill is a must-play WR1 and it shouldn’t shock you if he goes bananas on Monday night.
Sammy Watkins: We’ve officially reached the point where Watkins is being appreciated by fantasy players. It took a while, but he’s doing work over the last two weeks, racking up 206 total yards and a touchdown. He’s seen 15 targets and three carries in those two games, which bests his teammate Hill. While Watkins won’t be as efficient, he’s always been one of the most efficient wide receivers in football, despite everyone’s hate. He’s going to see a mixture of all three cornerbacks in coverage, as the Chiefs have moved him into the slot on 37 percent of his routes thus far. While slot snaps are typically useful, you don’t really want to actively target Chris Harris Jr. in coverage. This matchup may set-up better as the Hill week, but Watkins is still on the WR3 radar with how well Mahomes is playing.
Emmanuel Sanders: Through three games, Sanders is officially the slot-heavy receiver in the late stages of his career. He’s now run 67 percent of his routes from the slot, which is usually a great thing in matchups, though it may work against him in this one. The Chiefs acquired Kendall Fuller in their trade with Washington, who is used in the slot. He’s not as good as everyone made him out to be when the trade took place, but he’s the best one on the Chiefs roster. While covering the slot this year, he’s allowed 9-of-14 passing for 81 yards and a touchdown. It adds up to just 0.75 yards per snap covered, which ranks 12th-best of the 42 cornerbacks who have covered the slot more than 25 percent of the time. Sanders is still in-play as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3, but it could be a week where his teammate gets the best stat-line.
Demaryius Thomas: It’s been Sanders who’s posted the best numbers (by far) in this offense, though Thomas has actually seen the most targets (26). He’s totaled just 5.5 yards per target which is pitiful, but he’s seeing the toughest matchup on the perimeter most weeks. This week, however, Thomas may get back to his old WR2 ways, as the Chiefs best cornerback covers the slot. He’s going to see Steven Nelson an awful lot this week, a cornerback who the Chiefs have benched before. Based on his play in 2018, he may be there again, as he’s allowed 16 catches for 194 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. He’s just 5-foot-11 and 194 pounds, so I’m expecting Thomas to bully him in this game, though it’s hard to say he’s more than a high-end WR3 with the lack of chemistry he’s had with Keenum.
Courtland Sutton: The rookie hasn’t exactly clicked with Keenum through three games, as they’ve connected on just 5-of-14 targets for 91 yards. It doesn’t help that Keenum has thrown just three touchdowns, as Sutton is known as the best red zone target on their team. Knowing that this game has shootout potential, Sutton should be on the sleeper radar, as he’ll be matched-up with Orlando Scandrick the majority of time, a 5-foot-10 cornerback who’s played the slot for his entire career but has been transitioned to the slot with the Chiefs. He’s actually played well through the first three games, but he should be no match for Sutton should they go to him in the red zone. He’s not someone you should slot into your lineups and expect production, but if you’re looking for a hail mary, he’s not a bad one.
TEs
Travis Kelce: I’m guessing there are no more concerns about Kelce’s one-catch, six-yard performance in Week 1? He’s totaled 15 catches for 223 yards and two touchdowns the last two weeks as he heads into a matchup with the Broncos that is a great one. Despite playing against Will Dissly, Jared Cook, and Mark Andrews, they allowed that trio to combine for 36.3 PPR points. The Broncos have had Justin Simmons in coverage this year and it hasn’t worked, as he’s allowed 124 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 targets. The Chiefs offense presents so many issues for defenses that it’s impossible to know which way they’ll prioritize their coverage. Kelce is an every-week must-start and this week presents absolutely no issues.
Jake Butt: It’s still a timeshare at tight end for the Broncos, but Butt is the one who’s leading them in pass routes, targets, receptions, and yards. He’s obviously a favorite of Keenum, who loves his targets over the middle of the field. Fortunately, the Chiefs are a team that’s struggled to defend tight ends without Eric Berry in the lineup. They’ve now allowed Jesse James and George Kittle to combine for 10 catches, 217 yards, and a touchdown over the last two weeks. When looking for a streaming option, you ideally want one who’s set to be part of a high-scoring game, against a defense that struggles with the position. Butt checks the boxes this week. Though it’s not pretty, what tight ends outside the top-12 are? Update: Butt tore his ACL this week in practice and is done for the season. That leaves Jeff Heuerman as the primary tight end for the Broncos, so if you’re in complete desperation, it’s still a great matchup.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
Total: 49.5
Line: LAR by 6.5
QBs
Kirk Cousins: It was a terrible game for Cousins last week. Many will talk about the defense, but Cousins continually put them in bad spots, as he fumbled the ball three times (lost two of them) and threw an interception. Even worse, while trailing 27-0, Cousins continually checked-down dinking and dunking to nowhere. The Vikings offense didn’t pass the 50-yard-line until the fourth quarter. It was just one game, but his offensive line had no answer for the Bills pass-rush. What happens when the Rams pass-rush comes after him? It helps that their top cornerback Marcus Peters is surely out after being carted away with an ankle injury in Week 3. You also saw No. 2 cornerback Aqib Talib in a walking boot after the game which led to surgery this week. This is great news for Cousins and the pass-game, as we saw Philip Rivers throw the first two touchdowns against them this season, with one coming after Peters was hurt. There’s another glitch in the matrix, though, as the Vikings are traveling across the country on a short week, which is never a good thing. There’re reasons to be optimistic due to the injuries, but there’s also some cause for concern, making Cousins a boom-or-bust borderline QB1/2.
Jared Goff: Similar to last year, the Rams haven’t asked Goff to do much (he’s averaged just 33.6 pass attempts per game). He’s played really well for the most part, completing 70.3 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and two interceptions. The Vikings are easily the toughest defense he’s faced, though. He played against them last year and completed 23-of-37 pass attempts for 225 yards and no touchdowns. They lost that game 24-7, so it wasn’t a great game for him. The Vikings were missing Everson Griffen on defense last week (and will again this week), but the final score was more on their offense than anything. None of Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, or Josh Allen were able to throw for more than one touchdown against them, though the Vikings will be traveling cross-country to play on a short week, which typically affects the defense more than the offense. Still, knowing the Vikings defense hasn’t allowed multiple passing touchdowns since Week 12 of last year is worrisome. Consider him a middling QB2 who should at least present a solid floor with all of his weapons.
RBs
Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray: The Vikings said Cook was close last week, though ruling him out a few days before the game is never a good thing. My take was that they felt the game was winnable without him. Even if Cook had played, they don’t win that game. This is a short week, so there’s legitimate concern whether he’ll be available and whether he’ll play a full complement of snaps. The Rams have allowed a rushing touchdown in 2-of-3 games, though the touchdowns were to Marshawn Lynch and Melvin Gordon, two teams with phenomenal offensive lines, something Cook doesn’t have. We saw David Johnson continually blown-up in the backfield for just 48 yards on 13 carries against them. If Cook does play, he’s just a risky RB3 who could re-injure his hamstring. As for Murray, this doesn’t appear to be a game that will have a positive gamescript for his services, making him just an emergency RB4/5.
Todd Gurley: He’s picked up right where he left off in 2017, as he’s now scored 13 touchdowns in his last six regular season games. He’s got the toughest matchup of the season in Week 4, as the Vikings have held 18 of the last 19 teams of running backs to less than 100 yards rushing. If there’s one to break the trend, it’s Gurley against a defense that was on the field a ton against the Bills and will be traveling across the country on a short week. Meanwhile, the Rams have been at home since their Week 1 game against the Raiders. In their matchup last year, Gurley totaled just 56 total yards on 19 touches, though he did find the end zone. Something tells me he’ll have more success this game and obviously needs to be in lineups. If you’re playing DFS, I wouldn’t go crazy with his ownership due to how well the Vikings have played against the run, but there’s extenuating circumstances in this game that make him more appealing.
WRs
Stefon Diggs: Most will look at the box score and see just four receptions for 17 yards on 10 targets and put all the blame on Cousins, but Diggs also dropped what should have been a 40-plus yard touchdown. He’s going to be fine going forward and it may start this week considering the Rams are likely to be without both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, who were both in walking boots after Week 3. That would put Diggs up against Sam Shields and Troy Hill, two backups who are former undrafted free agents. While Shields had some decent years with the Packers, he’s played just 110 snaps since 2015. It appears that Thielen is the one who’ll benefit most with the bad offensive line, but Diggs is still averaging almost 10 targets a game. He’s a borderline WR1 this week and one I’m confident playing.
Adam Thielen: I admitted my preseason take was wrong on Thielen last week, saying that the Vikings can support two top-15 wide receivers. Well, there’s a reason for that. I didn’t think he’d come close to his 143 targets in 2017. He now has 44 targets, which leads the league (closest is Michael Thomas with 40). He saw a career-high 19 targets last week, so Cousins has apparently found his safety valve. The Rams lone starter left at cornerback is Nickell Robey-Coleman, who covers the slot, which is where Thielen plays a majority of his snaps. Robey-Coleman has seen 15 targets in coverage this year, allowing 11 catches for 102 yards on them, though no touchdown yet. If Thielen is seeing nearly 15 targets per game, he’s impossible to sit, especially when the Vikings run-game has little going for it. Consider Thielen a high-end WR2 in standard leagues and a low-end WR1 in PPR leagues, though Diggs may outproduce him this week.
Brandin Cooks: There are no concerns about Cooks’ workload after he’s seen 25 targets in the first three games. He’s still yet to score a touchdown, but it’s coming sooner rather than later, as his 336 yards are the most in the NFL without a score. Yes, he has seven more yards than Julio Jones. The Vikings typically have Xavier Rhodes shadow opposing No. 1 wide receivers, but Rhodes doesn’t have the speed to hang with Cooks. They probably would’ve had Trae Waynes cover him (runs a 4.31-second 40), but he was hurt in last week’s game and forced to leave. Even if Waynes makes it back, his speed can only do so much against the versatile Cooks. Knowing there are so many weapons on the offense, it’s always a risk when playing a defense as good as the Vikings because the Rams will have to take what they’re given, making Cooks a low-end WR2 in a game where Goff will have a tough time throwing for more than one touchdown (haven’t allowed more than one since Week 12 of last year).
Robert Woods: We talked about it last week, but he’s still the team leader in targets after three weeks. He’s actually top-12 among all wide receivers in targets, receptions, and touchdowns. The arrival of Cooks may have just made teams forget how good Woods was last year. It’s up in the air right now, but my assumption may be that the Vikings have Xavier Rhodes cover Brandin Cooks, but that’s no guarantee. It’s very possible that they try to bracket Cooks with two defenders while running man-coverage with Rhodes on Woods, which adds a certain level of risk to his projection. Rhodes did allow a touchdown to Davante Adams in Week 2, but it was just the sixth touchdown he’s allowed over the last three seasons. Woods is a top-30 wide receiver for the remainder of the season, but I’ve got some concerns about ranking him better than a WR3 in Week 4.
Cooper Kupp: He may be No. 3 on the Rams pecking order for targets, but he’s making them count. He’s now caught 15-of-21 targets for 186 yards and two touchdowns, while still leading the team with seven red zone targets through three games. That’s third in the NFL to only Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Vikings had Terence Newman retire this offseason and have been forced to go with rookie Mike Hughes in the slot. He’s not fast, but is very physical, so he actually matches up well with Kupp, who isn’t known for his athleticism. He’s played well through three games, but hasn’t faced the level of competition of Kupp, as his matchups have included Trent Taylor, Randall Cobb, and Zay Jones. Kupp isn’t a terrible play, but he’s also not a great one. I’d consider him a low-end WR3 for Thursday night.
TEs
Kyle Rudolph: I’ll be the first to admit that Rudolph was low in my rankings last week, but the gamescript didn’t go as planned. Sometimes that’ll happen, but you need to understand my reason for concern. Cousins has now thrown the ball 103 times the last two weeks, so seeing Rudolph finishing with 14 targets isn’t really surprising. If those attempts come down, he’ll suffer more than most realize. The Rams have some issues defending the tight end position, as they’ve allowed the 12th most fantasy points to the position despite playing against Jared Cook, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Antonio Gates. Their linebackers are the weak point of the defense, so it’s an area I’d expect the Vikings to target. Rudolph may continue his TE1 ways in this game if the Vikings know how to target the mismatches.
Tyler Higbee: The reason we’re able to have three Rams wide receivers be fantasy viable every week is because the tight ends are essentially non-existent, as they’re on pace for just 43 targets on the season. It’s going to be difficult to recommend any player who maxes out at two targets in a game, even if they’re against the Vikings defense that has really struggled against tight ends. Over the first three games, they’ve allowed 15 receptions, 233 yards, and one touchdown to the position. Higbee is playing twice the amount of snaps as Gerald Everett, so he’d be the one to take a shot on if you wanted to, though it’s as risky as it gets. With the lack of legitimate tight end options, Higbee isn’t the worst dart-throw.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
