Once the NFL Draft is over, there are many dynasty managers who over/underreact to the moves that were made. This creates a small window for you to capitalize on bad process. That small window is now, and I’m here to help you exploit it.
I’ve combed through all 32 teams, trying to find you the best dynasty value on each one. The ADP (Average Draft Position) was pulled from the May startup drafts from our friends over at Dynasty League Football where they take the average draft position from six different drafts to create a stable average. You can see all that information here.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
DeAndre Hopkins (WR) Overall ADP: 24, Positional ADP: WR10
I really hate to start this article off with a superstar, as they don’t typically come as a value, but having Hopkins as the No. 10 wide receiver in dynasty is a joke. “But Mike, he’s 28 years old.” I’ve done studies on what age wide receivers fall off, and it’s not until age 32-33 in most cases. How many years should you plan ahead with dynasty? I’d say three years, tops. He’s been a top-five wide receiver in each of the last four years. Hopkins is my WR6 in dynasty.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Julio Jones (WR) Overall ADP: 65, Positional ADP: WR31
Here we go again. Yes, Jones is 32 years old, which is typically the time you need to lower him in the rankings, but WR31? I feel the need to share this article on “What Age Does a Wide Receiver Decline?” with you. Age 32 is typically the last year of elite production, but top-24 production is still there at 34 years old for those who get targets at that age. Jones will be an every-week starter as long as he’s still playing the game.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Marquise Brown (WR) Overall ADP: 108, Positional ADP: WR52
I was ridiculed for suggesting Brown wasn’t an every-week starter before the start of the 2020 season. But now, the hate has gone too far in the other direction. We’re worried because of Rashod Bateman? He’s not taking away the high-value targets away from Brown. In fact, his presence will help Brown play more of a complementary role. Brown was never a prospect I expected to rack up the targets, but rather one who’d make the most of them when they came his way. The Ravens miscast him in their No. 1 receiver role, but that’s been addressed. This is the time to buy low and watch his efficiency rise.
BUFFALO BILLS
Marquez Stevenson (WR) Overall ADP: Undrafted, Positional ADP: N/A
He was one of the speedy sleepers in this draft, and it’s fortunate he landed with a team that uses 4WR sets more than any other team not named the Cardinals. The Bills needed a burner to stretch the field, and they found that in Stevenson. He may never be an every-week fantasy starter, but he might be able to provide a boom performance every now and then. I could also mention Stefon Diggs, who’s somehow falling to the WR7 in startups (I have him top-five).
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Sam Darnold (QB) Overall ADP: 195, Positional ADP: QB26
If you were to go back two years ago to the time Adam Gase arrived in New York, Darnold was being drafted as the No. 17 quarterback. We’ve all witnessed Gase crush the careers of now-fantasy-relevant players like Ryan Tannehill, right? We also know what Joe Brady did for Teddy Bridgewater last year, who finished as the QB18 while throwing just 492 pass attempts. The 7.6 yards per attempt was the highest of his career. Knowing the Panthers passed on Justin Fields, they have to feel somewhat confident in Darnold’s chances of being their long-term answer.
CHICAGO BEARS
Dazz Newsome (WR) Overall ADP: 238, Positional ADP: WR110
There’s not too much value to be had on the Bears, as we’ve seen the primary pass catchers get a bump with the arrival of Justin Fields. Newsome is a decent value, especially if we see the Bears trade Anthony Miller. Those rumors were there during the first wave of free agency, as well as the NFL Draft. The Bears depth chart behind Allen Robinson is full of maybes, so the chances of someone like Newsome working his way up into a featured role is much better than his current cost.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Tyler Boyd (WR) Overall ADP: 91, Positional ADP: WR42
I get it. The arrival of Ja’Marr Chase removed appeal from Boyd as a consistent WR2 option, but all the way down to WR42? The role Boyd plays in Zac Taylor’s offense is massive and it’s led to 257 targets in 31 games. He’s going to be playing the same role. Think about it… If Chase takes over A.J. Green‘s role, that’s a role that netted 104 targets last year. There is plenty of room for three fantasy receivers in this offense.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR) Overall ADP: 77, Positional ADP: WR38
If there’s one thing you should be taking away from this article, it’s that you need to go out and trade for Beckham. He’s not even being drafted as a fantasy starter anymore. That’s bananas. He’s 28 years old and has a lot of football left. Did we forget that Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins were both fantasy starters last year when Baker Mayfield got a grip on the offense? Beckham won’t be at this price for long.
DALLAS COWBOYS
Michael Gallup (WR) Overall ADP: 100, Positional ADP: WR50
This one kind of blew my mind. Sure, Gallup is surrounded by other pass catchers with the Cowboys, but still finished as the WR38 last year and he’s just 25 years old. He’s on the final year of his contract with the Cowboys in 2021, so it’s possible he’s signed to be the featured wide receiver for another team in 2022.
DENVER BRONCOS
Jerry Jeudy (WR) Overall ADP: 50, Positional ADP: WR23
It’s odd because of the quarterback situation, but I don’t really see someone who’s a tremendous value on the Broncos right now. With teams like the Chiefs, it makes sense. But on a team with a quarterback competition of two subpar quarterbacks, it doesn’t. So, I went with the player I’d be buying based on what I believe he can be. Jeudy can be a top-10 fantasy wide receiver if the Broncos get their quarterback situation figured out.
DETROIT LIONS
Tyrell Williams (WR) Overall ADP: 257, Positional ADP: WR109
This one might have some cocking their heads to the side, but Williams might very well be the Lions No. 1 receiver this year. Anthony Lynn is the offensive coordinator, so bringing Williams there as a player who knows the system makes sense. In 32 games under Lynn, Williams saw 134 targets and turned them into 1,381 yards and nine touchdowns. I don’t believe Jared Goff‘s skill set aligns with Williams’ that well, but we’re buying his opportunity right now.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Davante Adams (WR) Overall ADP: 15, Positional ADP: WR6
This is an overreaction to the Aaron Rodgers drama going on right now, as Adams was the No. 7 overall player and WR1 in startup ADP just two months ago. I won’t disagree that losing Rodgers would be a detriment, but let’s not pretend that Adams isn’t one of the best receivers in the game. He’s still just 28 years old and has a good five years of elite production left.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Brandin Cooks (WR) Overall ADP: 96, Positional ADP: WR45
Off the top of your head, do you know Cooks’ fantasy finishes by year? Going back to 2015, here they are (most recent first): 15, 62, 13, 12, 9, 14. The one year he didn’t finish top-15 was the year he dealt with concussion issues. There are now questions surrounding his quarterback in Houston, which should drop his value, but not to the point where he’s the WR45, especially since he’s just 27 years old and has shown the ability to perform with many quarterbacks.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Parris Campbell (WR) Overall ADP: 131, Positional ADP: WR60
When looking at early ADP, most seem to think Michael Pittman will be the go-to receiver in this offense, though I’m not so sure that’s the case. In the one game Campbell played last year, he saw nine targets, turning them into six catches for 71 yards. Pittman hit that mark just once all season, and that was with Campbell out of the lineup. Many forget Campbell was a former second-round pick brought in to be a presence over the middle of the field, which is precisely what Carson Wentz has liked throughout his career.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Travis Etienne (RB) Overall ADP: 31, Positional ADP: RB17
This is extremely odd. Most rookies are overvalued immediately after the draft but seeing there are 16 running backs going before him in drafts is wrong. The reports that came out saying Etienne was being used at receiver is a good thing. Targets are extremely important to elite production, and knowing he has built-in chemistry with Trevor Lawrence is a bonus. As a first-round pick, Etienne is going to be heavily involved.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) Overall ADP: 25, Positional ADP: RB15
Not many realize that Edwards-Helaire was the No. 11 running back through six weeks without Le’Veon Bell on the roster. Even better, he was the No. 11 running back while scoring just once during that time. In fact, had he scored one more touchdown, he would’ve been the No. 6 running back through six weeks. Once they traded for Bell, though, it ruined the stable touches he was getting. With Bell gone and no one significant brought in this offseason, Edwards-Helaire should return to his 18-plus touch role in the offense. The Chiefs have rebuilt their offensive line this year, which should help make life easier on Edwards-Helaire, who did average a solid 4.44 yards per carry his rookie season. As a bonus, I believe both Cornell Powell (WR102) and Byron Pringle (WR112) are both solid values as bench stashes.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Henry Ruggs (WR) Overall ADP: 99, Positional ADP: WR49
Fantasy managers want production right away, plain and simple. There should be a reaction to their rookie year, but not an overreaction, which is what’s happened with Ruggs. This time last year he was going as a top-30 wide receiver. While that was too high for my liking, but around the WR50, he’s a decent buy-low right now. The odd part is that Bryan Edwards is going less than 50 picks after Ruggs.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Mike Williams (WR) Overall ADP: 119, Positional ADP: WR58
It’s not often you can get a 6-foot-4 wide receiver who’s already had a 10-touchdown season and is tied to one of the hottest young quarterbacks in the game outside the top-50 wide receivers. Williams dealt with back issues last year and it’s caused his ADP to plummet, but he’s still the No. 2 option in the offense, and there’s legitimate top-20 wide receiver upside with him in a contract year.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
Cooper Kupp (WR) Overall ADP: 71, Positional ADP: WR33
It was shocking to see Kupp outside the top-30 wide receivers when doing research for this article. He’s finished as the WR27 or better in three of his first four seasons in the NFL, and just got an upgrade at quarterback. The one year he didn’t finish as a top-27 receiver was 2018 when he missed half the season due to a torn ACL. He was the No. 11 wide receiver in points per game that year. He shouldn’t be close to this cheap, don’t overcomplicate it.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Will Fuller (WR) Overall ADP: 89, Positional ADP: WR44
I’ve never been a huge “must acquire Fuller” fantasy player, but rather someone who treated him as a boom-or-bust asset who has week-winning performances at times. When on the field, he’s worth a heck of a lot more than WR44. Sure, there are injury concerns with him, but he was healthy last year and performed like a true WR1 most weeks. Going to the Dolphins on a one-year, prove-it deal was a bet on himself at 27 years old. If he plays well, he’ll get a three- or four-year deal with another team who’s in need of a field-stretcher.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Kirk Cousins (QB) Overall ADP: 199, Positional ADP: QB25
From a dynasty standpoint, the Vikings have a top-four running back, a top-10 tight end, and two top-36 wide receivers, yet Cousins is the QB25? Something doesn’t quite add up there. He’s not the sexy dynasty quarterback with rushing upside to produce top-five numbers, but he’s consistently posting borderline QB1 numbers at season’s end. He’s reliable and has more weapons than he’s ever had. Despite it feeling like he’s been in the league forever, he’s just 32 years old.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Jonnu Smith (TE) Overall ADP: 137, Positional ADP: TE15
When Smith went to the Patriots, everyone got excited, though that was short-lived because they also added Hunter Henry a few days later. That was a downer, but it’s clear that Smith was the priority when free agency opened. They also don’t have that “go to” wide receiver in the offense, which means he could be that guy in the offense. Once they added Mac Jones, a pure pocket passer, his stock did receive an uptick in my book. When taking tight ends outside of the top-six guys, you’re betting on upside, and I’d argue there’s none with more of that than Smith.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Jameis Winston (QB) Overall ADP: 217, Positional ADP: QB28
I debated putting Adam Trautman (TE20) here, but I believe his value is tied to the man under center. If Winston gets the starting job with Sean Payton, Winston will be a fantasy starter before long. Don’t be shocked if you see him as a top-15 dynasty quarterback this time next year. Don’t sleep on the quarterback who’s posted 7.74 yards per attempt throughout his NFL career and is now with the best play-caller he’s ever had.
NEW YORK GIANTS
Kadarius Toney (WR) Overall ADP: 108, Positional ADP: WR53
I wasn’t a big fan of the Giants selecting him at No. 20 overall, but they did, which means they’re going to do everything in their power to get him involved. I’m not even convinced he’s a major value here, but looking at the Giants as a whole, their value appears to be much higher than it should be. Suddenly, there are too many mouths to feed, and not an elite quarterback to distribute them.
NEW YORK JETS
Corey Davis (WR) Overall ADP: 98, Positional ADP: WR48
It’s odd to me that Davis’ ADP didn’t shoot up when he was traded to the Jets. Oddly enough, it’s dropped. He was the No. 79 overall player in January, but now sits as the No. 98 overall player, 11 spots behind his teammate Elijah Moore. The Jets hired a new regime and the first move this regime made was to sign Davis to a three-year, $37.5 million contract with $27 million guaranteed. He’s their No. 1 wide receiver and is worth more than his WR48 price tag. I also think Chris Herndon might turn out to be a tremendous value as the 25th tight end off the board.
PHILADEPHIA EAGLES
Miles Sanders (RB) Overall ADP: 34, Positional ADP: RB19
The start to Sanders’ career didn’t quite go as planned for dynasty managers, but that doesn’t mean you can’t reap the rewards now. There’s a new coaching staff in place, which could allow Sanders to play more of a full-time role in the offense rather than the 30- to 40-snap role that Doug Pederson had in mind. What I will say is that the addition of Jalen Hurts to the offense seemed to open things up for Sanders, who finished the year with 310 total yards and three touchdowns over the final three games of 2020.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Najee Harris (RB) Overall ADP: 18, Positional ADP: RB11
What more could you want out of a running back? First-round pick: check. High-scoring offense: check. History of using workhorse running back: check. Three-down skill set: check. Elite production at a top-tier college: check. Harris is going to be very good for a long time and should be in the discussion as a top-five running back in dynasty drafts.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Deebo Samuel (WR) Overall ADP: 72, Positional ADP: WR34
It feels like Samuel is going to be the Jarvis Landry of the 2020’s. He’s not going to be someone who’ll ever give you that top-12 wide receiver ceiling, but he’s going to be reliable due to a lot of manufactured touches in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. The prices are inflated for 49ers skill-position players right now, so Samuel’s not someone I’d pursue aggressively, but he’s probably the best dynasty value on their roster right now.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Russell Wilson (QB) Overall ADP: 91, Positional ADP: QB9
Why is Wilson continually hated in fantasy? He’s finished no worse than QB11 and he’s been a top-three fantasy quarterback in four separate seasons, which is not something many quarterbacks can say. He’s just 32 years old, so it’s not his age. Yeah, I’m aware Pete Carroll holds him back, but again, he doesn’t hold him back as much as his price suggests.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
O.J. Howard (TE) Overall ADP: 214, Positional ADP: TE27
Look, I’m well past the point of expecting Howard to be the fantasy stud we thought he would be, but we shouldn’t dismiss the possibility of him eventually getting there. Think about this for a minute: Rob Gronkowski was the No. 8 tight end last year. Howard produced more than Gronkowski prior to getting hurt in 2020. It’s possible that Gronkowski was brought in to show Howard the way to elite production, though his injury derailed that progress. As the 27th tight end off the board, I’m 100 percent buying his potential.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Ryan Tannehill (QB) Overall ADP: 151, Positional ADP: QB19
We’re past the point of wondering whether Tannehill is legit or not, right? Since taking the starting job in Week 7 of 2019, Tannehill has started 27 games and scored 575.3 fantasy points. Do you know how many quarterbacks have more fantasy points during that stretch than him? Two. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. That’s right. Arthur Smith leaving might decrease efficiency, but it might also increase volume. There aren’t 18 quarterbacks worth rostering over the 32-year-old Tannehill.
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
Logan Thomas (TE) Overall ADP: 127, Positional ADP: TE14
There was a point during the 2020 season where Ron Rivera was asked who he was excited about, and his response was something to the effect of a “lightbulb turning on” for Thomas and that too many people were sleeping on him. That statement was made in October. From Week 6 through the end of the season, Thomas was the No. 4 tight end in fantasy. Yes, he’s 29 years old, but tight ends generally take longer to develop, and he just got an upgrade at quarterback in 2021.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
