Just like how every fantasy manager has players they want to target, each drafter also has several athletes they want to avoid. This is especially true early in drafts since spending high draft capital on a big underperformer can have disastrous effects on your entire season. Busts are often players who are likely overvalued based on their average draft position (ADP) and would be decent selections at a discount. However, it’s possible that some of these guys may just completely fall flat and fail to deliver in any meaningful way whatsoever. Anyone who spent their fourth-round pick on Le’Veon Bell last season knows how that feels.

Identifying busts can be a tough task. That’s why we polled 60 experts on which players have the highest bust potential at every position heading into the new season. Take a look at who they chose below.

Want to see all the votes? Click here to view which experts participated and who they voted for.

Note: All ADP and ECR values are as of August 21

Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator

Top Consensus Busts

Click here to view which experts participated and who they voted for.

Running Backs

_{Other running backs who received votes were: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2), Mike Davis (2), Aaron Jones (1), Alvin Kamara (1), Antonio Gibson (1), Chris Carson (1), Darrell Henderson (1), David Johnson (1), David Montgomery (1), James Robinson (1), Melvin Gordon (1), and Nick Chubb (1)}

Wide Receivers

_{Wide receivers who received one vote were: A.J. Brown, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Courtland Sutton, D.J. Chark, D.KJ. Metcalf, DeVonta Smith, Odell Beckham Jr., Robby Anderson, Terry McLaurin}

Quarterbacks

_{Other quarterbacks who received votes were: Trevor Lawrence (2), Dak Prescott (2), Ryan Fitzpatrick (2), Russell Wilson (2), Daniel Jones (1), Aaron Rodgers (1), Ryan Tannehill (1), Deshaun Watson (1), Kyler Murray (1)}

Tight Ends

_{Tight ends who received one vote were: Adam Trautman, Evan Engram, Jonnu Smith, Logan Thomas, Zach Ertz}

Q. Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust and why?

Running Backs

J.K. Dobbins (BAL) 
“Dobbins is currently being drafted as the RB15, but is in an RBBC with not only Gus Edwards and Justice Hill but he also loses a substantial amount of touches to Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability. However, just as much as Jackson hurts him by taking away touches, he’s also dependent on Jackson’s presence as shown in the first preseason game where he had three carries for zero yards. If Jackson were to miss time, Dobbins would likely struggle to find running lanes. With running backs like D’Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Chris Carson, Darrell Henderson, and more being drafted behind him, I can’t see Dobbins returning the value of his ADP cost.”
– Elvin Ryan (The Pregame HQ)

“It isn’t that J.K. Dobbins is a bad player. Nor is it that I believe he completely flops in 2021. Given the opportunity cost to acquire him in drafts, however, Dobbins is an easy fade this season. The fantasy value for this 22-year-old RB is dependent on maintaining the elite rushing efficiency he showcased last season, which is a tough bet to make in full-PPR leagues. Dobbins and Gus Edwards combined for 2.2 targets per game from Week 8 on last year, so it’s hard to make any case for additional usage via the receiving game.”
– Brendan Tuma (FantasyPros)

“The Ravens love Gus Edwards — as confirmed by the two-year, $9 million deal he got this offseason. The Ravens also don’t throw to their RBs often. Ravens RBs TOTALED 51 and 50 targets, respectively, the past two seasons. That all leaves J.K. Dobbins as a committee back without much pass-catching upside. That’s not what we want on our fantasy teams.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

Joe Mixon (CIN)
“Since 2018, Mixon has been a top-24 pick in fantasy football drafts each and every season despite the fact that he has been an RB3 or worse in 44% of his games during that stretch! During the 2020 season, he was 52nd among RBs in BRoto Fantasy’s Rushing Yards Over Expected metric, 67th in BRoto Fantasy’s Points Per Opportunity Excluding Touchdowns metric, 66th in the classic yards per carry stat, and was a top-10 RB just once in six games despite seeing 19 or more touches each week. That one game was against the abysmal Jacksonville Jaguars rushing defense. He now has just a marginally better offensive line and the departure of Gio Bernard is being overdrawn, as Mixon has always gotten volume no matter who was healthy. He has proven time and time again that he is not worth his draft day cost and will ultimately bust once again.”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)

“Joe Mixon has averaged 3.7 yards per carry or fewer in 11 of his last 22 games. For every good game he plays, he seems to have another one with 10 carries for 19 yards. He missed 10 games with a foot injury last year and the Cincinnati Bengals have the 25th ranked offensive line by Pro Football Focus. The combination of durability concerns and a bad offensive line figure to make him a prime candidate to bust in 2021.”
– Derek Lofland (FantasyPros)

Josh Jacobs (LV) 
“After wanting nothing to do with Jacobs’ extravagant price in 2020, I’m equally uninterested this year even with his ADP drop. Jacobs seems like the kind of RB you want with his high touch count, and he was second in the NFL last year in RZ carries. The problem is he still remains completely uninvolved in the passing game (45 targets last year) and the Raiders brought in Kenyan Drake, who was fourth in the NFL in RZ targets last season, to share the workload. Drake has also proven to be more adept as a receiving back, so all the factors in play here will keep Jacobs off my rosters this year.”
– Jamie Calandro (Football Diehards)

“Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs was a fantasy darling with his top-eight finish in half PPR in 2020. This new season brings all-new challenges for fantasy managers with the offseason signing of Kenyan Drake. Jacobs and Drake both had top-10 finishes in carries, rushing touchdowns, and touches for the 2020 season. Having near-identical players, with near-identical contracts hasn’t brought down Jacobs’ round three ADP. Avoid this landmine.”
– Matthew McCarthy (Gridiron Ratings)

Myles Gaskin (MIA) 
“Gaskin is undersized at 5-foot-10 and 200 pounds and only made it through five games as a bell-cow back in 2020 before he injured his knee. Many read the Dolphins’ decision to pass on a rookie running back in the draft as a vote of confidence for the incumbent, but Gaskin played behind free-agent addition Malcolm Brown in the preseason opener and could end up in a fantasy-unfriendly backfield committee that would not justify Gaskin’s current top-25 RB ADP.”
– Scott Spratt (Football Outsiders)

“Myles Gaskin continues to go at the end of the fourth round as an RB2. This is despite clear indications that he is in a committee with Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed. In fact, Ahmed was the starter as late as Week 16 last season, and Brown outsnapped Gaskin in the first preseason game. Gaskin will likely lead the split, but it would take something unexpected for him to return even moderate RB2 output on a weekly basis.”
– Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)

Saquon Barkley (NYG) 
“Based on when players are being drafted and what the expected return is, Barkley is the biggest fantasy bust of the year for me. He can still be an RB2 with upside for a fantasy roster, but due to his draft price, he will be considered a bust this year. Back in 2019 when Barkley played with Daniel Jones (Weeks 7-16) he was an up-and-down fantasy back, producing four games of 13 or more fantasy points (with two massive weeks) and five games of 11 or fewer fantasy points. I do not believe the passing game work is as guaranteed as it was back in Barkley’s rookie year. Add in the injury to start the season and Barkley will disappoint owners who draft him in the first round.”
– Dylan Licciardo (FF Gamers)

Mike Davis (ATL) 
“When’s the last time we saw an RB breakout at the age of 28? Prior to last year, Davis had never played more than 40% of his team’s snaps, eclipsed 112 carries in a single season, or finished as a top-36 RB. He’s the type of low upside back-end RB2 set up to fail based on presumed volume, which we know carries projection error every year. There’s no way I can click the draft button on a journeyman RB over the elite WRs available in Rounds 4-6.”
– Matthew Betz (The Fantasy Footballers)

Derrick Henry (TEN) 
“I predict that the biggest fantasy bust of the season will be Henry, who’s an excellent rusher, but is not involved in the passing game. The Titans went 11-5 last season and had the best turnover differential (+11) in the league despite having a bad defense. I think they’ll have fewer leads and be forced to pass more, which will be especially tempting with the addition of future HOFer Julio Jones. Derrick Henry will be an RB2 this season due to usage and game script, and I’m avoiding him in drafts.”
– Jeff Greenwood (The Fantasy Footballers)

D’Andre Swift (DET) 
“I am finding it harder to trust Swift as we head into the fantasy draft season. The red flags outweigh any upside that he produced at the end of last year. Add in the fact that the Detroit Lions don’t seem to have much faith in Swift. They brought in Jamaal Williams and even had flirted with other free-agent running backs. The new OC, Anthony Lynn, loves the veteran players, and the new front office and coaching staff expect a one-two punch. They will ride the hot hand to make a formidable combo. Even if Swift is the lead back, fantasy managers can not be sold on him getting the volume accustomed to an RB being drafted as the RB18. His ceiling is capped, and the Lions will be trailing in plenty of games and rival the Houston Texans for the worst record this season, which will force the Lions to abandon the running game. Another negative impact on his fantasy production will be the lack of talent on the Lions’ offense. The significant downgrade from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff combined with lack of quality weapons make it a strong bet that this team will struggle to score points this season. Swift will see plenty of loaded boxes with defenses daring (praying) Goff to throw, which ultimately should lead you to temper your expectations for Swift this season.”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen (MIN) 
“Given that Thielen finished eighth in overall fantasy scoring among WRs last season (in half-PPR scoring), his ADP of 18th at his position might seem pretty reasonable, if not a bargain, but I still can’t draft him anywhere close to that. His performance was largely fueled by a career-high 14 touchdowns, whereas his average over the previous four seasons was six, and Justin Jefferson and Irv Smith are likely to eat into those end zone looks this season. In other notable categories, Thielen was 24th among WRs in yards, 28th in targets, and 41st in yards per target, and he turns 31 later this month. Oh, and the Vikings’ entire passing attack is on shakier ground than most this season, given that the team’s unvaccinated QB could be sidelined at a moment’s notice because of contact tracing.”
– Des Bieler (The Washington Post)

D.K. Metcalf (SEA) 
“I’m not saying that you should avoid Metcalf, just don’t be surprised when he doesn’t return value on the ADP in which you’re drafting him. Seattle will look to run the ball more, as their 60% passing percentage was up 12% from just two years ago. Metcalf, who may have finished the season as WR7, benefited greatly from three large performances that resulted in 35% of his total fantasy output. From Week 9 to the end of the season, Metcalf was the WR17, and he was the WR25 from Week 12 onward.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)

Julio Jones (TEN) 
“The excitement of Jones joining the Titans has driven his ADP into bust territory (WR15 in half PPR). In 2020, the Titans averaged the 10th-fewest passing yards and third-fewest passing attempts per game. Considering Jones has had one season in the last five with more than six TDs, he will be forced to rely on yards to return draft value. Unfortunately, I can’t see a 32-year-old WR overtaking the established A.J. Brown for the lion’s share of receiving yards.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)

Mike Evans (TB) 
“Evans reached a career-low in targets and receiving yards last season yet notched a career-high 13 receiving touchdowns and 19% touchdown rate. With the highest touchdown rate of his career, Evans holds a high-end WR2 ADP at WR13. Pass on Evans and take D.J. Moore or Brandon Aiyuk later on. Even take Evans’ teammate, Chris Godwin, instead.”
– Corbin Young (FantasyData)

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 
“I love Chase just as much as the next guy, but his current ECR and ADP are unbelievable considering all of the question marks surrounding him. Chase hasn’t played a football game in over a year, his QB is coming off of an injury-shortened rookie season, and he is surrounded by two very good WRs in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Joe Burrow lived off of volume last season, as his 34th ranked True Throw Value made it clear that his throws were not worth many fantasy points, so Chase will need to see 110+ targets just to have a chance to live up to his current ADP if Burrow doesn’t drastically improve.”
– Jason Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)

Justin Jefferson (MIN) 
“The talent here is undeniable, but his efficiency last year looks too good to be true … and that’s basically because it is. His aDOT (15.9 yards) and catch rate (>70%) were both at levels proven to be unsustainable. While I could see Jefferson eating a bit more into Thielen’s target share in Year 2, it’s not to the extent that would justify his current price as a top-10 WR. I’m comfortable taking him anywhere in the fourth round as one of the better WR2s in the league, but the reality remains it’s not even clear if he’s the WR1 on his own team — so I’m not willing to make him the WR1 on mine.”
– Benjamin Klotz (Touchdown Squad)

Kenny Golladay (NYG) 
“Golladay is going to hurt fantasy players this season. The New York Giants’ offense will have volume, there’s no doubt about that, but scoring opportunities will be hard to come by. Behind easily the worst offensive line in the league, Daniel Jones is going to struggle to get the ball moving consistently. That is going to lead to fewer scoring opportunities overall, and make Golladay a mid-level WR3 rather than the low-end WR2 he is currently ranked as.”
– Richard King (King Fantasy Sports)

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts (PHI) 
“Look, I get the appeal of chasing Hurts’ rushing upside, but I didn’t see nearly enough from him as a passer last season to confidently say he can last as a starting NFL quarterback. Would it really be that shocking if Hurts begins the season with a couple multi-turnover games and gets benched for the ‘safe’ option, Joe Flacco? Sure, there’s another scenario where Hurts emerges as a top-10 fantasy QB, but if you really want the next great dual-threat QB, Taysom Hill, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields each have at least as much upside at a much lower cost.”
– Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros)

Matt Ryan (ATL) 
“Ryan is concerning at his current QB145 price tag. His splits with/without Julio Jones are gnarly. He offers very little in the mobility/rushing aspect and has a new head coach that tends to shy away from a pass-happy approach. While Ryan could be a decent streaming option or a solid floor play as the second quarterback for Superflex leagues, I can’t get behind him as a weekly starter at his cost.”
– John Hesterman (Dynasty League Football)

Josh Allen (BUF) 
“Allen is the biggest candidate to replicate what happened to Lamar Jackson in 2019. He is going to be a top-eight QB, no doubt, but selecting him early as the second QB off the board is going to hurt you more than you can realize. This has little to do with him or the offense, but with the four or five QBs that are below him and also have the upside to be the QB1 this year.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts (ATL) 
“With the departure of Julio Jones, many people are all aboard the Pitts bandwagon, but it might be a little premature. Rookie TEs are notoriously slow starters in their careers and are often not fantasy viable until much later. In the last 18 seasons, only two TEs (John Carlson and Evan Engram) have had more than 600 yards in their first season. Some analysts have Pitts as high as TE4, which is too high. Last year’s TE4, T.J. Hockenson, had 723 yards and six TDs, numbers that only one rookie since 1988 (Engram) has come close to touching. Over the last three seasons, the TE4 has averaged 204.3 PPR points (17-game season). No rookie TE has reached that mark since Mike Ditka in 1961. STOP IT!”
– Tim Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)

“I am a huge Kyle Pitts believer. He is a physical freak and am incredibly excited about his NFL career. However, the current price of TE4 is outrageous; he is being drafted at his absolute ceiling. Rookie TEs traditionally are slow starters. We have seen two top-eight rookie TE seasons in the last 20 years. Kyle Pitts is a generational talent, but I can’t stomach the price for a rookie TE.”
– Richard Cooling (5 Yard Rush)

Logan Thomas (WAS) 
“Thomas is going to disappoint drafters who take him as the TE9. He had a breakout season last year with 110 targets (third-most among TEs), which was just below Terry McLaurin’s 134 targets. Consider too that Washington’s WR2 had only 48 targets in 2020. Also, Thomas averaged 33 receiving yards in the games with Antonio Gibson, compared to 88 in the games without him. Thomas’ involvement was very necessary for Washington in 2020, but now with Gibson and Curtis Samuel, his volume will decline significantly. Ohh, do you also remember Ryan Fitzpatrick feeding a TE in fantasy? No — because he has never produced a top-10 TE.”
– Adrian Alpanseque (Estadio Fantasy)

Tyler Higbee (LAR) 
“Of the players listed at QB, RB, and WR it is more a condition of their current ADP and them having almost no margin of error at that price. As for Tyler Higbee, the writing on the wall looks bright, but the history doesn’t offer encouragement. Matthew Stafford has had several good tight ends and two elite-caliber ones in Eric Ebron and T.J. Hockenson. Of his 282 career TD passes, approximately 17% have gone to the position, with a seasonal high of just six. Higbee’s current ADP leaves enough meat on the bone for upside, but there are other tight ends I would rather pay up for than to hope Higbee can emerge in year six.”
– Andy Singleton (Expand The Boxscore)

Mike Gesicki (MIA) 
“Gesicki doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me this season. In the past, he has been a decent late-round target as a cheap tight-end choice. I don’t really understand why the fourth target on a team that averaged just 19 completions per game last season is being drafted as a top-12 tight end. I don’t see much of a floor here with him being the fourth target on the team, and Gesicki’s ceiling is significantly hampered by his quarterback, who couldn’t dream of sustaining three fantasy receiving options, let alone four.”
– Justin Dodds (SleeperWire)

T.J. Hockenson (DET) 
“It’s not fair to pick on the TE position because the drop-off is already so great from the top three, but with talks of Hockenson being the next elite TE to solidify himself inside the top-five at the position, the expectations are higher than his projected fantasy production, in my opinion. Jared Goff-led offenses have never produced a top-five TE (Higbee was the TE8 in 2019) and the WRs in Detroit are underrated. Hock won’t see enough volume to be in the top five, but he can still easily be top 10.”
– Tommy Molioo (The Undroppables)

Dallas Goedert (PHI)
“Stay away from Goedert. The 26-year-old is being drafted as the TE7 ahead of guys like Noah Fant, Robert Tonyan, Mike Gesicki, and others who have zero competition for targets in their respective TE rooms. Last I checked, Zach Ertz is still an Eagle and not only played in Philadelphia’s Week 1 preseason game, but he ended up playing more with the starters than Goedert. If the Eagles cannot find a trade partner for Ertz before Week 1 of the regular season, Goedert won’t be anything more than a glorified streaming option.”
– Jacob W. Dunne (New Life Fantasy)

---

Thank you to all the experts for naming their consensus busts. You can view each expert’s picks above and be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice. Also, please check out our latest podcast episode below.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio