Denver Broncos vs New York Giants
Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Broncos -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 42 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Broncos 22.5, Giants 19.5
Quarterbacks
Teddy Bridgewater: Faced with the choice between the big-armed boom/bust guy and the semi-efficient ball distributor, the Broncos took the safer route, naming Bridgewater the starter over Drew Lock. As poorly as Lock played last year, the choice was understandable. Bridgewater at least completed 69.1% of his throws in 2020 and was able to support two 1,000-yard receivers (D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson) plus an 850-yard receiver (Curtis Samuel) in Carolina. That’s basically what they’re asking Teddy B. to do here – unleash Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant.
Daniel Jones: This is a tough spot for Jones. His offensive line stinks. Evan Engram is out. Kenny Golladay will probably play but was sidelined throughout training camp with a hamstring injury. The Broncos can rush the passer with edge guys Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, and they can cover with CBs Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller, and Patrick Surtain. I want no part of Jones this week.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams: The assumption seems to be that it’s only a matter of time before Williams seizes control of this backfield. But is it? All Gordon has done over the last five years is average 1,285 yards from scrimmage and 11.4 touchdowns per season (while missing 12 games over that stretch). He’s only 28 and was a better prospect than Williams is. (Gordon was drafted earlier and had a better college résumé.) This isn’t to say Williams won’t take over the Denver backfield – he’s a terrific prospect, no question – but Gordon might be a hard guy to marginalize.
Saquon Barkley and Devontae Booker: The Giants expect Barkley to play, but his load will probably be lightened a bit as he works his way back from a torn ACL and a partially torn meniscus. Those who drafted Barkley hope he’s such a freakish specimen that he’ll be able to make the sort of triumphant return Adrian Peterson made in 2012 when he ran for 2,097 yards and 12 touchdowns after tearing his ACL on Dec. 24, 2011. That may be wishful thinking, but Barkley is a special athlete. Booker will help pick up the slack until Barkley is ready for workhorse duty.
Wide Receivers
Jerry Jeudy: One possible reason for the decision to start Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock at quarterback: Jeudy had the highest percentage of uncatchable targets in the league last year, according to PFF. Basically, this team can’t afford to waste Jeudy. He’s too good. Jeudy was sailing under the radar in drafts for a while this summer, but not anymore. He’s a dynamite route runner and is a blur after the catch. Un-Lock-ing Jeudy (ahem) is a big part of making this offense go.
Courtland Sutton: The decision to start Teddy Bridgewater is probably better for Jerry Jeudy than it is for Sutton since Bridgewater is a little more eager to take check-down throws. It’s nonetheless nice to have Sutton back from a torn ACL, although it’s possible his return is a quiet one due to a tough matchup with James Bradbury.
Kenny Golladay: It’s disappointing that a hamstring injury prevented Golladay from getting needed training-camp reps with his new quarterback, Daniel Jones. Golladay kept tumbling in fantasy drafts, to the point where it seemed as if people were forgetting just how good this dude has been. Golladay had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-2019, scoring 11 touchdowns in 2019. Golladay went off that year despite playing five games with David Blough, who was subbing for the injured Matthew Stafford. Blough is terrible, but in five games with him, Golladay was able to produce 22 catches for 398 yards and three touchdowns – which made him WR10 over that stretch. Golladay figures to be rusty and possibly not at full capacity, and he faces a tough matchup against Ronald Darby. As good as I think he is, I don’t want to have to use him this week.
Sterling Shepard: He’s good for about 60-65 catches and 650-850 yards every year. Shepard’s high floor is probably best appreciated by fantasy managers in larger leagues. But even those managers might not want to use him this week in a tough matchup against Bryce Callahan.
Tight Ends
Noah Fant: A leg injury kept Fant limited in midweek practice, but there haven’t been any indications that he might not play in Week 1. Other than in the TD category, the athletic young tight end improved his receiving numbers across the board in his second season.
Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph: Evan Engram is expected to be out with a calf injury and Rudolph is dealing with a foot injury. Avoid.
Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints
Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Packers -4
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 50 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Packers 27.25, Saints 22.75
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers: Remember when the New Orleans pass defense used to be terrible every year? The Saints are now one of the better teams in the league at defending the pass. In 2020, they ranked in the top five in opponent completion percentage, opponent passer rating, passing yards allowed, and interceptions. They also ranked eighth in sacks, and the New Orleans pass rush could be a problem for Rodgers now that he’ll be without his stalwart left tackle, David Bakhtiari, who tore his ACL on Dec. 31 and will start the season on the PUP list. Bakhtiari won’t be around to block impressive young pass rusher Marcus Davenport (who, coincidentally was acquired with a first-round draft pick obtained from the Packers). Left guard Elgton Jenkins will move to left tackle in Bakhtiari’s absence. Jenkins is good, but his shift leftward weakens the line elsewhere. This is a difficult matchup for sure, but in Week 3 of last year, Rodgers threw for 283 yards and three TDs against the Saints – and that was without Davante Adams.
Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill: Yes, let’s list them both. Saints head coach Sean Payton has been mixing in QB packages for Hill for a few years now. That’s not likely to change with Jameis Winston taking over as the starter. Those occasional Hill snaps take a little bit of value away from Winston, but there’s still value to be had if Payton gives Winston the green light to throw downfield as aggressively as he did with the Buccaneers two years ago. That’s to be determined. The Saints have a terrific pair of bookend tackles – Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead – to anchor a top offensive line, but they’re thin at receiver with Michael Thomas out and Tre’Quan Smith‘s status uncertain.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon: The dynamic in the Green Bay backfield changes somewhat with Jamaal Williams leaving for Detroit. Jones has been and continues to be, the lead guy, but whereas the versatile Williams could play on either passing downs or early downs, Dillon is more of a banger whose contributions should come mostly on early downs. That might mean slightly less early-down work and more passing-down work for Jones – a good thing for his overall value since extra targets could give him a nice boost. Jones finished RB5 in half-point PPR scoring last year after finishing RB2 in 2019. Dillon played sparingly as a rookie but sparked excitement when he was forced into action in Week 16 and completely wrecked the Titans on a snowy night in Green Bay, rushing for 124 yards and two touchdowns. “Quadzilla” could be a fun player to have on your roster this year.
Alvin Kamara and Tony Jones: We know what Kamara is capable of – especially those of us who had something riding on Kamara’s six-TD Christmas Day bonanza last year, either for or against. The question is what his target totals will look like in the post-Brees era. During his four years with the Saints, Kamara has averaged 102.3 and 81.5 catches per season. He actually set career highs with107 targets and 83 receptions last season, even though there was a brief drought when Taysom Hill was under center. Kamara had just three catches during the first three weeks of Drew Brees’ absence due to a chest injury. We just don’t know yet how often Winston will check it down to Kamara. Jones is going to be an interesting contributor. The Saints apparently felt good enough about him that they didn’t mind cutting Latavius Murray. Behind Jones on the depth chart is Dewayne Washington.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams: The Saints may ask Marshon Lattimore to shadow Adams. That’s a tall order. Adams had 115 catches for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns in 14 regular-season games last year (then added two more touchdowns in the playoffs). Rodgers looks for him all over the field. You could even make the case that Adams is the Packers’ goal-line back since they’ll routinely manufacture some quick little throw to him instead of handing the ball off to a running back.
Randall Cobb: The Packers seemingly brought back Cobb to appease Rodgers after he threw the front office under the bus during a press conference at the beginning of training camp. So does this mean Rodgers will force throws to Cobb? Probably not, but expect him to be Green Bay’s primary slot guy this year, delaying the fantasy relevance of rookie slot man Amari Rodgers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: MVS has become the Packers’ designated home-run hitter. He scored six touchdowns last year and averaged a league-high 20.9 yards per catch. Valdes-Scantling is prone to some bad-looking concentration drops, but Aaron Rodgers keeps throwing to him anyway, which speaks volumes. There have been cases where Rodgers has frozen out pass catchers he didn’t trust. Apparently, he trusts Valdes-Scantling.
Marquez Callaway: His two long, high-degree-of-difficulty TD catches in the first quarter of a nationally televised preseason game against the Jaguars set hearts aflutter. With Michael Thomas sidelined for the foreseeable future and Tre’Quan Smith working his way back from injury, Callaway is the Saints’ No. 1 receiver and poised for a significant target share. But he figures to draw coverage from Jaire Alexander, one of the best pure cover men in the league. If Alexander shuts down Callaway, he’s going to be dropped in leagues all over the country. But if Callaway can put up even a 4-64-0 line against Alexander, it might be a sign that Callaway is in for a big season; Alexander is just that good.
Tre’Quan Smith: He’s questionable with a hamstring injury. If he’s good to go, there might be some contrarian DFS appeal here based on the probability that the Packers shadow Marquez Callaway with ace cover man Jaire Alexander, leaving Smith to face either Kevin King (last seen being repeatedly torched in the NFL Championship Game) or slot corner Chandon Sullivan. If Smith is out, Deonte Harris and ex-Packer Ty Montgomery could get some run.
Tight Ends
Robert Tonyan: Regression is coming for Tonyan. He had an 88.1% catch rate last year, and 21.2% of his receptions went for touchdowns. That said, Tonyan could regress and still finish TE8 instead of TE3, which was where he finished last year.
Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman: A foot injury leaves Trautman’s Week 1 status uncertain. If he can’t play, Johnson becomes an intriguing option. A converted wide receiver, the 6-4, 240-pound Johnson had a decent but unremarkable college career, beginning at Penn State and ending at Oregon. He played seven games for the Saints in 2020, catching four passes for 39 yards. There’s not a lot to go on other than positive reports from training camp. But in an offense short on pass-catching options, Johnson merits interest.
Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams
Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Rams -7.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 46.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bears 18.25, Rams 25.75
Quarterbacks
Andy Dalton: Chicago has been buzzing over the preseason play of rookie QB Justin Fields, who represents hope for a downtrodden fan base. But Bears head coach Matt Nagy was committed to starting Andy Dalton for at least the first week of the season. Maybe Nagy feels guilty that the franchise signed Dalton as a free agent, only to draft its QB of the future, and he wants to give Dalton a handful of starts. Or maybe Nagy simply doesn’t want Fields to get battered by a ruthless Rams defense in his first NFL start, so he’s letting Dalton serve as Aaron Donald‘s redheaded piñata. (Note: As a redhead, I’m allowed to write that.) Whatever the case, Dalton won’t find his way into many lineups this week.
Matthew Stafford: It’ll be fun to see Stafford at the controls of Rams head coach Sean McVay’s offense. Not that it was a picnic for Stafford to grasp the nuances of McVay’s scheme, I’m sure. Some of the subtleties of it were clearly lost on former No. 1 draft pick Jared Goff, who could look spectacular at times (see: Rams v. Chiefs in Mexico, November 2018) and look like a puddle of goo at other times (see: Rams v. Steelers, Bears, and Ravens, November 2019). Stafford is clearly a better quarterback than Goff, and I can’t wait to see him in a livelier system after watching him toil in Detroit for so long. Stafford finished QB15 last year but could easily be a top-10 fantasy QB in this offense. This will be a nice way for Stafford to start his Rams tenure, facing a Bears defense that has one of the sickliest-looking groups of cornerbacks in the league.
Running Backs
David Montgomery and Damien Williams: Montgomery essentially had the Bears’ backfield to himself last year after satellite back Tarik Cohen tore his ACL in Week 3. Cohen’s recovery has been slow, so it’s a good thing the Bears brought in Damien Williams, who was a COVID-19 opt-out for the Chiefs last year. Montgomery is still clearly the lead guy here, but Williams will give him a breather and would become a priority waiver addition in most leagues if anything happened to Monty. This is a bad matchup for the Bears’ running game. The Rams gave up 91.3 rushing yards per game, allowed only 12 TD runs, and held opponents to 3.8 yards per carry. There were only two runs of 20 or more yards against the Rams all season.
Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel: This may be one of the least predictable backfields in the league. Cam Akers‘ season-ending Achilles injury was a major blow to Rams head coach Sean McVay’s plans. Henderson has proven somewhat brittle himself, so the Rams traded away draft picks (which they seem not to value) for Michel. Knee problems have hindered Michel ever since his NFL arrival in 2018, but the former Georgia star played well down the stretch last year, even catching three passes for 60 yards in the Patriots’ season finale. I would expect Henderson to handle a greater share of the load early on, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting a lot of money on that. McVay kept Akers on a usage yo-yo last season before finally going all-in on the rookie in December.
Wide Receivers
Allen Robinson: Expect Jalen Ramsey to shadow Robinson, who’s done yeoman’s work for the Bears since joining the team in 2018. A-Rob has 200 catches for 2,397 yards and 13 touchdowns over the last two seasons and will once again be the go-to guy for whoever’s quarterbacking the Bears. You’re probably starting Robinson despite the tough individual matchup and the suboptimal QB situation, and you’d gladly sign up for a 5-80-0 type of stat line.
Darnell Mooney: Less heralded than other members of the rookie WR class of 2020, Mooney was quite a pleasant surprise. The Tulane product had 61 catches for 631 yards and four touchdowns, and he looked very much like he belonged. Mooney can fly, and the sooner the Bears make the switch to rocket-armed rookie Justin Fields, the better it will be for Mooney investors.
Robert Woods: My friend Scott Pianowski of Yahoo calls players like Woods “Ibañez all-stars.” It’s a label honoring former MLB outfielder Raul Ibañez, a perennially underrated gem who was a consistent run producer through his 30s and even into his early 40s. Woods is 29 now and is well into a multi-year string of boringly productive fantasy seasons. Now that he has a quarterback upgrade, maybe he’ll put up even splashier numbers. And one of the nice things about having Woods on your team, by the way, is that he always adds a little bit of rushing value because the Rams love to use him on reverses. Since 2018, Woods has had 60 carries for 433 yards and four touchdowns.
Cooper Kupp: Matthew Stafford managed to turn Danny Amendola into a useful tool in Detroit; imagine what he’s going to be able to do with Cooper Kupp. While Robert Woods figures to draw coverage from promising young CB Jaylon Johnson, Kupp will be up against either Kindle Vildor or Duke Shelley, either of whom would be overmatched.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham: These are two escalators crossing in a mall, and Kmet is headed upstairs toward Spencer’s and Cinnabon. Graham has had a wonderful career – it’s fun to call up his stat page and check out the numbers from those crazy seasons he had with the Saints – but at this point, he’s basically a concrete barrier impeding Kmet’s development. Kmet’s snap counts began to climb over the second half of the 2020 season, and by December he was playing 80% or more of Chicago’s offensive snaps every week. His 28-243-2 rookie stat line was modest, but there are bigger things ahead for Kmet.
Tyler Higbee: Over the last five games of the 2019 regular season, Higbee had 43 catches for 522 yards and two touchdowns. That sort of pace wasn’t sustainable, of course, but expectations were high for Higbee going into 2020, and things didn’t really pan out. Higbee’s 2020 season was … fine. He had 44 catches for 521 yards and five touchdowns. But his 15-game yardage total fell short of his five-game yardage total from late 2019. Gerald Everett was hurt and out of action for the Rams in 2019 when Higbee went bonkers. Everett is now playing for the Seahawks. Maybe his departure coupled with the arrival of Matthew Stafford can ignite Higbee again.
Baltimore Ravens vs Las Vegas Raiders
Date/Time: Monday September 13, 8:15pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Ravens -4.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 50.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Ravens 27.75, Raiders 23.25
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson: Is it possible that the season-ending injury to J.K. Dobbins could propel Jackson to the biggest fantasy season of his career? How much more of the rushing load will Jackson take on himself now that Dobbins is done for the year? Jackson ran for 1,005 yards and seven touchdowns last year, 1,206 yards, and seven touchdowns the year before that. A 1,300-yard, 12-TD rushing effort in 2021 doesn’t seem completely far-fetched. Plus, Rashod Bateman should return from a groin injury in a few weeks. I’m a big Bateman fan and think he’s capable of helping Jackson hit new career highs in passing. Meanwhile, the Raiders keep swinging and missing whenever they try to address the defensive side of the ball in the draft. The Las Vegas defense is going to be bad again, and we should probably expect Jackson to go bonkers on Monday night.
Derek Carr: You know the Baltimore defense is going to be tough. It always is. Surprisingly, though, in three career games against the Ravens, Carr has thrown eight TD passes and only one interception, averaging 248 passing yards. Maybe that’s more compelling to you than it is to me. I have him ranked QB26 this week.
Running Backs
Gus Edwards and Ty’Son Williams: It seems unlikely that the recently signed Le’Veon Bell or Trenton Cannon would factor into the Ravens’ Week 1 gameplan, so it will probably be Edwards and Williams sharing the load. Baltimore running backs averaged 117.9 rushing yards and 1.1 TD runs per game last year. Factor in the poor quality of the Raiders’ defense and this looks like a terrific spot for Edwards, who should get a clear majority of the RB touches this week. Recent history suggests that Edwards and Williams won’t be very involved in the passing game this week, but the rushing output should be enough for at least one of these guys (if not both) to make quota on Monday night. Note: Edwards suffered what is believed to be a torn ACL in practice on Friday and is likely out for the season. The Ravens signed Devonta Freeman to their practice squad shortly after Edwards was injured, but it seems likely that Williams will get the vast majority of the work against the Raiders.
Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake: The lack of affection for Jacobs throughout fantasy draft season was puzzling. Not that he should have been considered an RB1, but he usually came off the board in very late RB2 range and sometimes fell into RB3 territory. That seems strange for a highly pedigreed prospect who’s topped 1,000 rushing yards in each of his first two seasons, scoring 19 total touchdowns. Oh, and he’s averaged 257.5 carries per season and 18.4 carries per game – bona fide workhorse credentials – and hasn’t been a complete zero as a pass-catcher. But we’re fading him this year because (checks notes) the Raiders signed Kenyan Drake? Sure, Drake is probably going to be the primary passing-down guy. Jacobs wasn’t playing much on passing downs anyway, yet he finished RB8 last year (half-point PPR). The Ravens ranked eighth last year in rushing yardage allowed, but Jacobs is still startable in most leagues based on expected carry volume. Sure, Drake will play on passing downs, but he isn’t good enough to cut into Jacobs’ early-down touch share.
Wide Receivers
Marquise Brown: With Rashod Bateman still out with a groin injury, I wanted to be able to endorse Hollywood as a sneaky start or DFS play, but I have too much respect for Casey Hayward. He may be at the tail end of his career but Hayward is still a quality cover man. Brown has the speed to spring a big play at any time – he scored six TDs over the final six regular-season games of 2020 – but he’s also capable of vanishing like a magician’s rabbit.
Sammy Watkins: In no way is this an endorsement, but the Rashod Bateman injury frees up snaps for Watkins, and his matchup against Trayvon Mullen is pretty good. Yes, I’m aware that Watkins has broken the hearts of approximately 2.7 million different fantasy managers over the years (and is eager to break more).
Henry Ruggs: There’s optimism that Ruggs can get on track after a disappointing rookie year, but what a tough start to the season. The second-year man will draw coverage from fellow Alabama product Marlon Humphrey, one of the top cover men in the league. Ruggs has the speed to make his quota with a single play, but that’s not something you want to bet on as a fantasy manager.
Bryan Edwards: If Edwards has an easier matchup than Henry Ruggs this week, it’s only slightly easier. Veteran Marcus Peters is a tough draw for Edwards, another young Raiders receiver aiming for a second-year breakout. Best to avoid the young Vegas receivers this week.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews: As long as Rashod Bateman is sidelined, Andrews will be the odds-on favorite to lead the Ravens in targets and catches in any given week. The big tight end just signed a lucrative contract extension, so the Ravens clearly value what he brings to the table. Andrews had a respectable 58 catches for 701 yards and seven touchdowns in 2020. The year before, he posted career highs across the board with 64 catches, 852 yards, and 10 TDs. I think he’s capable of surpassing even those numbers.
Darren Waller: Not a bad tight end duel in this game, huh? Waller draws the toucher individual matchup, having to face Ravens safety Chuck Clark, who’s strong in coverage. But Waller is an integral part of the Vegas offense. He’s averaged 8.2 targets, 6.2 catches and 73.2 receiving yards over the last two years. He might not be a great DFS play this week because of the tricky matchup, but of course, you’re starting him in seasonal leagues.
Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Thursday September 9, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Buccaneers -8.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 51.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cowboys 22, Buccaneers 29.5
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott: The Cowboys’ leader makes his long-awaited return after fracturing and dislocating his right ankle on Oct. 11, 2020, but the fitness of his ankle is less concerning than the fitness of his right shoulder. Prescott had not one but two MRIs on his ailing shoulder this summer, and the Cowboys’ medical staff even consulted with MLB’s Texas Rangers in an effort to gather more information. The team has declared him fit for the opener though, and if his shoulder is indeed sound, Prescott will be one of the few quarterbacks with a legitimate chance to finish QB1 for fantasy. The Buccaneers’ defense finished middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks last year, but what makes this a tricky matchup is the Tampa pass rush. The Bucs had 48 sacks last year, tied for the fourth-highest total in the league, and the Dallas offensive line won’t be at full strength for this one. RG Zack Martin has been declared out due to COVID-19, and RT La’el Collins is questionable with a neck injury (though he’s expected to play). You’re almost surely starting Prescott if you drafted him, but you might not be starting him with quite as much confidence as usual.
Tom Brady: TB, or not TB, that is the question. Admittedly, it isn’t a question many people have been asking. They look at what Brady has accomplished and the outrageous collection of pass-catching talent around him and assume Brady is not only a safe investment for 2021 but an appealing one. Here’s the thing: Brady is 44. Only three other quarterbacks have started regular-season games since the NFL-AFL merger: Steve DeBerg, Warren Moon, and Vinny Testaverde. DeBerg and Moon started one game apiece at that age. Testaverde started six games for the 2007 Panthers. “But Brady is the GOAT,” you say. Well, sure, maybe. But consider the dramatic declines of two all-time greats. In 2009, 40-year-old Brett Favre threw for 4,202 yards and 33 TDs, finished QB3 in fantasy scoring, and nearly led the Vikings to the Super Bowl. The next year, Favre’s last, he averaged 193 passing yards a game, threw 11 TD passes and 19 interceptions, and has a passer rating of 69.9. In 2014, 38-year-old Peyton Manning threw for 4,727 yards and 39 touchdowns and finished QB4 in fantasy scoring. The next year, his last, he averaged a career-low 224.9 yards a game, threw nine TD passes and 17 interceptions, missed six regular-season games with a foot injury, and had a passer rating of 67.9. Are we really so confident Brady won’t suffer a similar fate at an even more advanced age? And yet, it’s impossible not to like this spot for Brady. His supporting cast is superb. The Thursday-night opener is obviously a big spotlight game, and we know how Brady usually performs in big games. And the Dallas defense is in a state of transition, with a bunch of new starters and a pair of rookie cornerbacks likely to see ample playing time. We’ll see if Brady can continue to defy Father Time for a full season, but it would be unwise to bet against him in Week 1.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard: There’s little doubt that Elliott is eager to get the bad taste of 2020 out of his mouth. He averaged a career-low 4.0 yards per carry, scored a career-low eight touchdowns, and failed to rush for 1,000 yards for the first time since 2017 when he only played 10 games. There were plenty of excuses for why things went sideways – the Dak Prescott injury, nagging leg injuries for Elliott himself, myriad injuries to his offensive line – but it was certainly unusual to see the mighty Zeke look so mortal. Elliott’s ADP of RB5 suggests that fantasy managers are confident about a rebound. This isn’t exactly a great spot for him, however. No NFL team gave up fewer rushing yards than the Buccaneers last season, and with only 16.2 fantasy points per game allowed to opposing RBs (half-point PPR scoring), they tied for the second-stingiest RB defense. The Cowboys will also be without starting RB Zack Martin (COVID-19) and could be without starting RT La’el Collins (neck). Pollard looked explosive at times last year and is now considered one of the better backups in the league. It would probably take an Elliott injury to unlock Pollard’s fantasy potential, however, and he’s basically unplayable in a matchup as tough as this one.
Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette: The Buccaneers’ three-headed backfield seems like one to avoid most weeks, but perhaps we should make an exception to be made this week. Let’s start with the assumption that Giovani Bernard won’t play this week. He reportedly has a “mild” high-ankle sprain, but … um … those don’t really exist – high-ankle sprains are almost always multiple-week injuries. If Bernard is out, that leaves the backfield to Jones and Fournette, who’ll face a Dallas run defense that was simply awful in 2020. The Cowboys gave up 2,541 rushing yards last year, the second-highest total in the league. They yielded 20 TD runs, and opponents averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Dallas drafted stud LB, Micah Parsons, in the first round of this year’s draft, but it’s going to take more than a single finger to plug all the leaks. It’s actually sort of unfortunate that the people with Jones or Fournette on their rosters are getting this matchup now, when there are no bye weeks and injuries are relatively few. Even with the attractive matchup, Jones and Fournette probably won’t fin their way into many fantasy lineups.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb: Can we just take a minute to appreciate that the NFL’s Thursday-night opener features arguably the two best WR trios in the league? (Expect an argument from Steelers fans.) Anyway … we’re all eager to see what Lamb can do this year. He looked like a star in the making last year, he looked phenomenal in training camp, and it seems like he could become a perennial top-15 fantasy draft pick as early as 2022. This could be a smash spot for him. In fact, I’d want him in all of my DFS lineups if the Cowboys could be counted on to use him in the slot most of the time, as they did last year. Lamb lined up in the slot 84.7% of the time last year, according to PlayerProfiler.com, and ranked No. 2 in the league in total slot snaps. The Buccaneers’ outside cornerbacks, Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean, are respectable cover men, but slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting is a sieve. Lamb against Murphy-Bunting would be one of the greatest mismatches since the Battle of Little Bighorn. Unfortunately for Lamb investors, the Cowboys have increasingly been using Michael Gallup in the slot. Lamb is sure to get slot snaps too, but alas he won’t get Murphy-Bunting all to himself.
Amari Cooper: He’s gone over 1,100 yards in each of his two full seasons with the Cowboys, racking up 149 targets and 171 receptions over that span. For fantasy purposes, he’s a rock-solid WR2, and even though he probably faces the toughest individual matchup of the three main Dallas receivers, likely getting a lot of face time with the capable Jamel Dean, it’s not a matchup to fear.
Michael Gallup: The Cowboys have started using Gallup in the slot from time to time, which increases his fantasy viability for Week 1. Slot cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting is the weak link in the Tampa secondary, and the promise of snaps against Murphy-Bunting makes Gallup at least worth considering as a third receiver or flex play in larger leagues.
Mike Evans: He’s played seven NFL seasons and has never failed to surpass 1,000 yards, though with 1,006 yards last year, it was a close call. With Chris Godwin continuing to blossom and the accomplished Antonio Brown brought on board, Evans saw a career-low 109 targets, but he offset the lack of target volume by scoring a career-high 13 touchdowns. Evans is too lethal a red-zone threat for the touchdowns to dry up completely, but we can’t count on a double-digit TD total, since Evans has scored fewer than 10 TDs in four of his seven seasons. You’re starting him this week, of course. Evans is likely to face Trevon Diggs on most of his snaps. Diggs is probably the Cowboys’ best cornerback, but that isn’t saying much. At 6-2, Diggs will at least have a fighting chance against the 6-5 Evans in contested catch situations, but I know who I’m betting on in those situations, and it isn’t Diggs.
Chris Godwin: He’s averaged 83.6 receiving yards per game over the last two years, and Godwin has a plum matchup against mediocre Cowboys slot corner Jourdan Lewis this week. With as many quality pass-catchers as the Bucs have, there’s always a risk of having YOUR Tampa pass-catcher get left out in a given week, but it’s hard to imagine Tom Brady not leveraging this matchup.
Antonio Brown: The usual caveats apply regarding the uncertainty of the Buccaneers’ target distribution, but it appears the Cowboys will be trying to cover one of the best receivers in NFL history with (checks notes) Nahshon Wright, a third-round rookie from Oregon State. Yes, Brown is in the twilight years of his career, but this is still a nearly irresistible matchup if indeed the Cowboys send out the rookie to face him. Wright is an unusually tall cornerback, standing 6-4. He’ll have a long way to reach down to pick his jockstrap off the turf.
Tight Ends
Blake Jarwin, Dalton Schultz: I recommend that this duo be avoided for fantasy purposes until we have a better handle on how Jarwin and Schultz will be deployed. Jarwin is listed as the starter and has flashed potential as a sneaky weapon in the Dallas arsenal, but Schultz filled in well in 2021 after Jarwin tore his ACL in Week 1. The Cowboys are destined to use three-receiver sets at a high rate, and if they split TE snaps almost evenly between Jarwin and Schultz, it will tank the fantasy value of both.
Rob Gronkowski: There were years when Gronk was a consensus top-15 overall pick in fantasy drafts. This year he was mostly an afterthought. Hey, I get it. He’s well into the back nine of his career, much closer to post-round drinks in the clubhouse than to the 10th tee. And the Buccaneers have talent galore at wide receiver. But a healthy Gronk always has a pretty good chance to score a touchdown in a given week.
Get free start/sit and waiver wire advice for your fantasy team 
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
