There’s no offseason when it comes to fantasy football, especially through the lens of dynasty fantasy football. With free agency (FA), the NFL Draft and most rookie drafts in the books, there’s no better time to start fine-tuning your dynasty rosters with some veteran acquisitions lost in the rookie hype train.
Whether you are a seasoned dynasty manager or are just looking to get started, my following list of must-have dynasty targets for startups and trades will help you head in the right direction.
Let the off-season dynasty fantasy craze commence! Here are my must-have dynasty players to target.
There’s no offseason when it comes to fantasy football, especially through the lens of dynasty fantasy football. With free agency (FA), the NFL Draft and most rookie drafts in the books, there’s no better time to start fine-tuning your dynasty rosters with some veteran acquisitions lost in the rookie hype train.
Whether you are a seasoned dynasty manager or are just looking to get started, my following list of must-have dynasty targets for startups and trades will help you head in the right direction.
Let the off-season dynasty fantasy craze commence! Here are my must-have dynasty players to target.
But before we do…let’s recap last year’s hits and misses from this same article. I listed 12 dynasty draft targets in 2023, and here’s how it shook out at each position. The parentheses note (W-L-T) at each position.
QBs: (1-0)
My No.1 QB buy last offseason? Jordan Love. Commence the victory laps. I always felt Love needed time to marinate before being thrust into a starting NFL job. He was part of a very young nucleus of offensive players, and the Packers had a favorable schedule for fantasy QBs. I also think it was telling that the team immediately traded him to the New York Jets at the first sign that Aaron Rodgers showed a decline in play.
RBs: (0-3)
Note to self. Don’t buy/trade for RBs in dynasty during the offseason. Draft them instead during the rookie drafts or buy the rookies that failed to fire in Year 2. Three strikes between Rhamondre Stevenson, Cam Akers and Antonio Gibson from last season. Stevenson/Gibson are now teammates on the Patriots, and Akers might be completely done in the NFL after another Achilles tear. Another note to my future self. If an RB ever gets 100% benched or hits rock bottom (Akers in 2022), proceed with caution. At least I was high on Rachaad White across all formats in 2023, who was essentially one of the few top-20 dynasty RBs to see his value increase from last year.
This epiphany of how bad trading for RBs was for me in 2023 drove me back into the spreadsheets to find the actual data to project for 2024. I compared Dynasty League football (DLF) start-up ADP from May 2023 to May 2024. The results are shocking but also extremely actionable.
Only eight RBs among the top 30 in ADP saw their dynasty value increase into the following season (2024).
Only one RB inside the top 18 increased their value by more than three spots (Rachaad White).
The biggest risers came from the RB27-RB29 range. One was a rookie (De’Von Achane). The others were two more second-year RBs, i.e., Isiah Pacheco and James Cook.
Rookie Tyjae Spears also saw a major boost in ADP value after it was clear Derrick Henry would not return to the Titans. It then dropped massively after Tony Pollard signed with Tennessee. But his value has increased in the aggregate from last season even with the overall fluctuation in his dynasty value.
Only 30% of RBs saw an increase in dynasty start-up ADP compared to last season (27 out of 89 RBs). Woof. The number drops to 22% when you only include RBs that had 2023 start-up ADPs (20 out of 89 RBs). Of those 20 RBs, 8 were second-year RBs (40%). Nearly half of the RBs that saw their dynasty value increase were second-year RBs…
73% of the total ADP increases by RBs were made by second-year RBs led by Zamir White, Jaylen Warren and Ty Chandler. That number jumps to 80% when you include Kyren Williams’s insane ascent from a zero to the RB8 in dynasty formats.
Including the full 27 RBs who saw their stock increase, here are the other trends I noticed:
12 were playing in backfields where the main competition was in the final year of their contracts.
Nine were playing backfield where the incumbent starter was coming off injury.
Journeymen RBs who have dealt with injuries but have a track record of efficiency/production. First names that come to mind? Dalvin Cook and Rashaad Penny. It might not be the end of the road for them quite yet.
Also, RBs playing behind “JAG” RB1s saw boosts to their dynasty ADPs.
The backfields that seem like candidates to provide massive dynasty RB risers include Cleveland, Denver, Minnesota, Carolina, Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas.
In conclusion, targeting rookie RBs (even post-rookie drafts) and second-year RBs seems like the best bet for the strongest return heading into 2025. And it’s super key to be aware of the RB contracts in each backfield.
Before this article gets off the rails with RB-centric analysis (I apologize in advance, but I am enamored with this stuff), these RBs could see the biggest bumps in value just by moving up their respective RB depth charts based on projected free agency implications.
You’ll notice I discuss a number of them individually when we get to the final RB dynasty targets.
Did anybody actually see their value increase? Nope. Although trading for DK Metcalf (still only 26 years old) wasn’t horrible. He wasn’t good enough to classify it as a win, but considering I am already 0-6, I need some positivity.
Six of these WRs had ADPs outside the top 70 entering the 2023 season.
The common theme around this bunch is obvious: youth. It makes logical sense that any player who performs well and is also younger will see a major boost in dynasty value. The other part is just projectable volume. Who is young and could see a decent-sized target share in their offense, regardless of efficiency?
Young players (under 25) who project for decent-sized volume in their offenses that might be underrated include Josh Downs (22, WR53), Jahan Dotson (24, WR58), Wan’Dale Robinson (23, WR68), Josh Palmer (24, WR67), DeMario Douglas (23, WR77), Marvin Mims Jr. (22, WR66), Gabe Davis (25, WR72) and Jalen Tolbert (25, WR107).
The other trend is that many of the 2023 dynasty WR risers played on teams with older and potentially expendable WR teammates. Teams that currently could have big openings at WR as soon as 2025 include Houston, Cincinnati, Chicago, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Carolina, Miami, Tennessee, New York Jets, Kansas City, Denver, Las Vegas and the 49ers.
My highest-ranked WRs in this range are Flowers, Dell, Worthy, and Pickens. The FantasyPros Trade Value Chart is equally as high on Flowers, Worthy, Pickens, and Dell.
I missed horribly on my redraft tight ends to target but hit the ball out of the park with David Njoku as a dynasty trade-for-target. Just another reason to remember that these tight ends can take time to break out. Njoku turned 27 last season. So, should there still be hope for Kyle Pitts (assuming a dynasty manager will actually trade him now)? Pitts is still just 23 (turning 24 years old in October).
In May 2023, Bryce Young was the QB13 in dynasty ADP. After a disastrous rookie season, he has fallen to QB22 per Dyntasy League Football (DLF) ADP. He’s QB20 in the trade value chart and QB21 in my QB dynasty rankings.
No QB posted more bust games than Young (12) did in 2023. Only Sam Howell took more sacks (65) than Young did.
The Panthers loaded up everything on Young from the get-go. His 41 dropbacks per game over his first five in the NFL tied C.J. Stroud for the 6th-most in the league.
The last rookie QB to post at least 11 bust games? Trevor Lawrence. The horrible situations each No. 1 overall pick endured during their rookie campaigns were unbearable.
But as Lawrence did in the final game of his rookie year — 223 passing yards, two TDs, zero INTs, season-high PFF passing grade — Young did have a couple of moments of flash after the team fired HC Frank Reich. Against the Packers in Week 16, Young threw for 312 yards and 2 TDs.
Young was PFF’s 11th-highest-graded QB from a clean pocket from Week 12 onward. He ranked 34th through the first 11 weeks of the season.
And it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to acknowledge the vastly improved situation around Young in Year 2 versus Year 1.
They traded for Diontae Johnson to be their new No. 1 WR. They drafted Xavier Legette in the first round. After Legette, the Panthers selected Texas players RB Jonathon Brooks and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders. They doubled down on the OL with FAs Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis.
I love the HC’s hiring of quarterback whisperer Dave Canales and the entire staff he brought with him to Carolina, many of whom helped Tampa Bay exceed offensive expectations in 2023. Canales has had the “Midas touch” in his last two landing spots, specifically getting the best out of quarterbacks Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield.
Joe Gilbert was the Buccaneers’ OL coach last year and got the most out of the unit the team did not invest much money into. Will Harriger was hired as the QB coach after stints in Dallas (2023) and USC (2022), where we saw some impressive QB performances from Dak Prescott and Caleb Williams.
I want to be “higher” on Carolina than the market heading into the 2024 season.
The Panthers play in arguably the worst division in the NFL, and the NFC conference has a lower bar to surpass to make the postseason. The team improved Young’s situation tenfold during the offseason with new coaches and personnel.
As I pointed out in my 2023 analysis of Jordan Love, I cited that a favorable schedule would help Love. The Panthers have the 10th-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2024. Per the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule (SOS) tool, Carolina boasts a top-six schedule for fantasy QBs.
And although the recommendation on Young in this article highlights him as a dynasty asset, I am in on the Panthers in several betting markets, such as odds to make the playoffs and Canales to take home the coach of the year award.
It’s hardly fair to write off Young after a 2023 season where he stood no chance. It’s too early to label him as a “bad QB.” Buy the dip on the 2023 No. 1 overall pick. Even in Superflex, you can trade players like Isiah Pacheco, Joe MixonD’Andre Swift, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Deebo Samuel or Mike Evans to acquire Young.
Or if you are looking to upgrade at QB, Will Levis-plus (or perhaps even straight up) could easily get the deal done for Young. The Panthers QB is still just 22 years old, which makes him younger than Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix and Bo Nix.
I promised myself I wouldn’t go overboard with RB trades in dynasty. Last year taught me a valuable lesson that it’s just not a lucrative market to invest in during the summer months, with NFL backfields constantly changing. So, I am strictly looking to unearth value without overpaying by projecting RBs who could see their value increase dramatically when we get to 2025.
And that brings me back to second-year RB Kendre Miller, who I was extremely high on last year. Alas, Miller was hurt during his entire rookie campaign after rehabbing a college injury, so he never got much of a chance to showcase his skill set. However, he did show up in Week 18 with Alvin Kamara inactive.
13 carries for 73 yards and one TD, with three red zone carries to boot. And that was on just a 36% snap share.
With Kamara entering his age 29 season it’s very possible Miller takes on a larger role, specifically as a rusher in-between the tackles. The long-time Saints running back still can post receiving numbers with the best of them, but his rushing efficiency is starting to dwindle. Last year, Kamara ranked 40th out of 49 qualifying backs in missed tackles forced per attempt per Fantasy Points Data. He also ranked fourth-worst in rushing yards above expectation per attempt.
Speaking of rushing yards above expectation per attempt…Jamaal Williams ranked dead last in that category in 2023. The team has an out in Williams’ contract after this season. They can also move on from Kamara as well.
Clearly, the Saints need to improve their ground attack, and Miller could be the answer in Klint Kubiak’s new offensive scheme, which could be similar to the 49ers’. Kubiak spent last season as the 49ers’ passing game coordinator.
Miller is still super young (turning 22 in June) especially compared to his two older backfield teammates. Heck, according to DLF, he’s the second-youngest non-rookie RB in the NFL, being born just four months before Jets RB Israel Abanikanda. And on a recent Establish The Run podcast, fantasy analyst Evan Silva reported that New Orleans Saints beat reporter Nick Underhill believes the Saints want Miller to be their lead back. Music to my ears.
Trading this year’s crop of rookies like Jaylen Wright, MarShawn Lloyd, Kimani Vidal or Ray Davis to acquire Miller in true post-hype sleeper fashion. For veterans, look at guys like Jerry Jeudy, Dontayvion Wicks, Tyjae Spears, Jerome Ford or Zack Moss to make a move for Miller.
Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
Who could be this year’s Miles Sanders? Perhaps D’Andre Swift, after he (just like Sanders) was sent packing after playing for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Therefore, I can’t help but think the better dynasty value in the Chicago backfield is second-year RB Roschon Johnson, who should/could emerge as the primary receiving back/third-down RB for the Bears with his excellent pass-blocking chops. If Swift were to get hurt (he stayed healthy for the first time last season), Johnson would be slated for some massive upside. So, although Johnson is technically a “loser” this offseason without a clear path to the RB1 role on the Bears, the discount on his new dynasty ADP (RB49 from RB35) will be one to target as a priority handcuff.
And I like the chances of Johnson at 219 pounds to be the Bears’ goal-line back in 2024 — an easy access point to fantasy production. As a rookie, Johnson had six carries inside the five-yard line. Only D’Onta Foreman had more (seven) on the Bears. Foreman signed with the Browns in the offseason.
I fully expect Khalil Herbert to be traded (he’s in a contract year) and “RJ” to potentially push Swift for the starting RB1 role. The former Texas RB could have the edge as a receiver and red-zone rusher, which are the high-value touches we want in fantasy football. The rookie caught 34 of 40 targets (24% target rate per route run) in his first year. We also can’t forget that Johnson dealt with a concussion that hindered his growth as a rookie. He likely would have had a much larger role after being adored by the Bears coaching regime after he was drafted.
And don’t forget all the off-season quotes about the Bears regime loving Johnson last season and his season debut that saw him produce immediately (even if it was in garbage time).
Bears RBs combined for nine top-24 finishes in 2023. Swift finished as a top-24 RB in 50% of his games last season. We know this Bears offense has the chance to be exciting in Caleb Williams’ first season. Johnson is by far the cheapest access point.
I also think Herbert is a savvy buy-low target, given his contract status. He was drafted by a different Bears regime, and there are plenty of teams that could use Herbert’s skills as a rusher.
Second-year RB Chase Brown, currently ranked as the RB44 in dynasty ADP, presents an intriguing trade target, especially when compared to Zack Moss, who sits at RB35 in the same rankings. Despite Moss having a shot at starting for the Bengals after signing in free agency, Brown is a formidable contender for touches, particularly in the passing game.
The market may lean towards Moss due to his contract, but Brown’s potential involvement shouldn’t be overlooked, especially as a receiver out of the backfield.
Moss’ contract is hardly an indicator of a future workload, given it’s only $4 million per season and just $3 million guaranteed.
Brown showcased his abilities as a rookie, demonstrating his versatility as both a rusher and a receiver alongside Joe Mixon. Even with a hamstring injury sidelining him in October, he proved his worth and earned opportunities on the field. And he was running routes, which we love for RBs in PPR formats.
His familiarity with the playbook and the team dynamics heading into his second year bodes well for his development and potential impact.
In assessing Moss’s situation, it’s essential to consider his performance and the circumstances that led to his opportunities in Indy. For instance, Moss’s significant playing time came when Jonathan Taylor was injured for the Colts, highlighting a scenario where Moss might not have ever seen the field. In that universe, Moss never sniffs a deal with the Bengals in free agency. His underwhelming performance against the Bengals in his last start for the Colts underscores the potential downside of Moss’s abilities. He recorded an 84% snap share in that game. The result? Thirteen carries for 28 yards for 2.2 yards per carry. Woof.
The Bengals’ decision to sign Moss as Brown’s primary competition is a low bar to pass.
One notable aspect in Brown’s favor is his explosiveness, evident in his impressive ball carrier speed on a 54-yard touchdown reception, as documented by NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Brown’s own words reflect his confidence and readiness to take on a larger workload, drawing on his college experience to support his capabilities. With Moss and Brown poised for a training camp battle, the outcome remains uncertain, but Brown’s potential for a significant role, particularly in PPR formats, makes him an enticing target in dynasty leagues.
Here’s what Brown said this offseason regarding his approach entering the year.
“This is my second time around so the playbook’s not new, the coaches aren’t new, the guys in the locker room aren’t all new, so you kind of feel like you’re at home and that’s kind of how I feel right now,”
“I did it in college,” Brown said of his ability to handle a large workload.
In conclusion, while Moss may initially be favorably viewed in the ADP market, Brown’s upside, demonstrated talent, and favorable circumstances position him as a compelling dynasty trade target for fantasy managers seeking value and potential production from their running back roster.
Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)
Jaylen Warren holds the RB27 spot in dynasty ADP and RB24 according to the FantasyPros Dynasty Trade Value Chart, setting the stage for a compelling debate alongside Najee Harris in fantasy drafts (who is ranked very close to him). Despite Harris’s higher draft capital and name recognition, Warren’s performance suggests a closer split in the Steelers’ backfield than meets the eye.
In terms of raw points per game, Warren’s 9.6 (34th) is in close proximity to Harris’s 10.4 (32nd) over 18 total games played in 2023. Notably, in full PPR formats, Warren outscored Harris, highlighting his potential value in formats that reward receptions. Warren’s role as a receiver was significant, with 74 targets ranking him 6th among all RBs and showcasing his involvement in the passing game.
From a rushing efficiency standpoint, Warren shines. He boasts impressive metrics in yards per carry (5.2, 4th) and rushing yards per carry after contact (3.7, 3rd), indicating his ability to generate yardage both before and after initial contact.
As the discussion shifts to the upcoming season, the focus may pivot from Harris’s strong finish – the RB9 from Week 9 onward and RB18 in points per game, finishing second in rushing yards overall (722) – to questions about his ability to fend off Warren for the top spot in the backfield.
Harris’s track record includes strong finishes in the past two seasons, as he finished 3rd in rushing yards from Week 10 onward in 2022. Part of this last-season production has been general regression based on volume, but it’s also been very TD-based. In the second halves of the last two seasons, Harris has scored 13 TDs compared to only 2 TDs in the first halves.
But how many times should you be willing to draft Harris, knowing he’s going to dig you a hole to start the season? RB33 and RB28 open to the first halves of the last two seasons. Woof. Harris has been top-10 in touches the last two seasons but has not cracked the top-12 fantasy RBs overall as the RB15 (2022) and RB26 (2023), averaging the same points per game as Warren this past season (10) Weeks 1-17.
And with his fifth-year option declined, the Steelers may be open to exploring other options, potentially giving Warren an opportunity to seize the RB1 role. Considering the uncertainties surrounding the Steelers’ offense and the arrival of new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, Warren’s versatility and explosiveness position him as a compelling option with significant upside.
In a best-case scenario, Warren emerges as the primary back in a two-headed backfield, capitalizing on his receiving skills and efficiency metrics to deliver consistent fantasy production. Conversely, if Harris struggles or fails to secure a significant role under the new offensive coaching regime, Warren could become the point of the Steelers’ rushing attack, significantly elevating his fantasy value.
With the Steelers expected to maintain a run-heavy approach under Arthur Smith’s guidance, Warren’s potential to thrive in an enhanced offensive scheme, supported by offseason acquisitions in the offensive line through the NFL Draft (OL Zach Frazier and Troy Fautanu) adds further intrigue to his fantasy outlook. As the 2024 season approaches, Warren presents a tantalizing option for fantasy managers seeking value and upside in their running back slot.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
I stuck my neck out for Rhamondre Stevenson last season, and he was a major flop. He had essentially the worst runout you could ask for. Struggled immensely out of the gates with poor inefficiency marks as a rusher. He wasn’t breaking enough tackles, and the Patriots offensive line was horrible.
The Patriots RB went from the 13th-ranked RB in dynasty to the 26th-ranked RB in year-over-year dynasty ADP.
From Weeks 1-12, Mondre was the RB23 overall, averaging 11.3 points per game before he was placed on IR with an ankle injury. But after Week 6, the efficiency numbers as rushers boosted substantially. Averaged 5 yards per carry and 14.1 points per game (10th among scoring RBs).
What salvaged his fantasy value was his dynamite role in the receiving game. He played 66% of the snaps in Weeks 1-12 (11th), running a route at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL (53%). Fifth in total targets among RBs.
With defensive-minded head coach Jerod Mayo elevated to head coach, this team screams “play defense and run the football” at the forefront of its offensive approach. Not to mention, Stevenson is entering a contract year. The team has all the incentives in the world to ride him out and then let him walk with Antonio Gibson under contract.
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson:
'I want to be the featured back' in New England ?
"I love playing all three downs." ??
"OC Alex Van Pelt – running the football in this league wins games, wins championships"
Now, the concerns with Stevenson are that it’s possible his receiving role is not set in stone after the Pats signed Antonio Gibson (my other 2023 dynasty trade target) to a three-year, $11.25 million deal. It’s a decent-sized contract which suggests AG has a clear runway to work on passing downs.
AG ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.5) in 2023. Over the past four seasons, Gibson is just one of 15 RBs to handle a season with at least 300 touches. He can handle a three-down workload with his size and pass-catching skillset and three straight seasons with 40-plus receptions.
That’s concerning, but it’s baked into Stevenson’s suppressed cost. At least theoretically.
And how many years of disappointment do we need to endure from Gibson, who has completely failed to live up to his early career expectations?
But as I alluded to in the intro, both Stevenson and Gibson check off certain boxes of potential dynasty RB risers this time around in 2025.
Upon further review, I think this backfield altogether is worth targeting, with a clear gap between the top two and the rest of the Patriots’ RB depth chart.
Stevenson can be potentially acquired for a 2025 second-round pick or with veteran players like Javonte Williams or Alvin Kamara. Just be sure not to overpay at all, given the hit rate of RBs during the offseason.
Gibson on the other hand, is free and likely can be acquired for a third-round rookie pick. Considering I already have my bags pretty heavy from all my Mondre shares from last season, I will be looking to add Gibson to my dynasty portfolio.
It’s the perfect time to strike a deal for Zay Flowers. Rashod Bateman is getting more support from his OC after re-signing with the Ravens. Flowers is consistently being overlooked after a very strong rookie season, with the greatness that was Puka Nacua in 2023.
He slots in as WR15 in my WR dynasty rankings, several spots ahead of his consensus rankings per the FantasyPros Trade Value Chart (WR21) and his DLF APD (WR23).
Still yet to turn 24, the market is sleeping on a potential-jump for Flowers despite his clear-cut WR1 status in the Ravens’ offense.
The last time we saw Flowers, he was operating as Lamar Jackson‘s top target in the AFC Championship Game. He hauled in five of his eight targets (24% target share) for 115 yards while scoring the Ravens’ lone receiving touchdown on a spectacular 54-yard play.
Flowers led the Ravens in air yards/target share at 24%, totaling over 1,000 air yards, 1,000 receiving yards and six receiving TDs (plus one rushing TD) on 86 catches in 18 games. Only Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill and Nico Collins forced more missed tackles than Flowers.
Although his final stat line as the WR29 overall and WR31 in points per game (10.7) suggests he left some production on the table.
He finished 11th in route participation among all WRs (88%). Only 3 WRs with a route participation that high finished with fewer than 11 points per game.
Still, Flowers’ production was boosted heavily in the absence of Mark Andrews. Without Andrews for seven games (Week 1 and Week 11 onward), Flowers averaged 13.2 points per game (14th).
From Weeks 2-10, Flowers averaged 8.2 points per game and only scored one TD. Although Flowers’ target share only decreased from 24% to 22%. Bodes well for him to remain a focal point of the Ravens passing game with Andrews back in the lineup for 2024 and beyond, but it is very possible he is still the 1B to Andrews’ 1A.
However, Jackson is more than capable enough as a quarterback to fuel more than one receiver to fantasy success. Buy the former first-round pick entering Year 2.
Tank Dell (WR – HOU)
Stefon Diggs‘ contract only connects him to the Texans for the 2024 season; there will be no further involvement after this season.
Nico Collins was in the final year of his rookie contract until he signed a three-year extension worth $72 million.
We could look forward to as soon as the 2025 season, with Tank Dell and Collins operating as Batman/Robin for the Texans (the exception being that both are Batman).
But there’s already a strong argument to be made that Dell could be the 1A in the Texans offense, given what he did pre-injury last season. I remember ranking him as a top-10 redraft WR for the rest of the season before his injury.
Recall that, as a rookie, Dell posted an identical air yards share to Collins at 31% while falling just short in target share at 21%. The undersized WR posted over 1,000 air yards in just 10 games played. In those games, Dell posted again a 21% target share, 33% air yards share and 14.2 points per game (9th). In the eight games Collins and Dell played together — each missed a game with injury – the production was nearly identical. 13.9 points per game for Collins and 14 points per game for Dell. But the younger and slightly discounted Texan posted higher rates of top-12 and top-24 finishes (equal in raw finishes).
Collins is always drafted AHEAD of Dell in every redraft format, and his dynasty ADP is also slightly ahead at WR19 compared to Dell’s WR22. The FantasyPros Trade Value Chart has Dell at WR24 versus Collins at WR18.
Therefore, I like the value of taking the rookie breakout LATER in dynasty start-up, with him looking 100% healthy coming off a broken fibula and gunshot flesh wound.
Good to see Tank Dell (broken leg, gunshot wound) was full participant in OTAs.
Obviously Dell would look better without the Stef Diggs addition. But worth noting #Texans were 19th in Pass Rate Over Expectation last season. Room for a jump there given personnel.
C.J. Stoud loves Dell; he convinced the front office to draft the Houston product back during the 2023 NFL Draft. And more recently, Stroud selected Dell in his ‘Perfect Offense’ as his slot WR, while opting to leave both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs off the roster.
There are no guarantees in life, but one thing is for sure: Dell will be the Texans’ starting slot WR in 2025, and Diggs might be out of the picture entirely.
Once Dell got the opportunity to play last year, he immediately broke out and melted faces as a rookie. That’s more impressive than Collins’ 3rd-year breakout and even hefty payday. And it’s enough rationale for me to target Dell as “the” Texans WR to roster in dynasty formats, especially given the recent news likely widening the gap between Collins/Dell.
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
In 2023, Christian Watson was the WR19 in dynasty start-up May ADP and a top trade target of mine. But after an injury-plagued 2023 season, he has nosedived to the WR39 per Dynasty League Football. His value is identical in both my updated dynasty WR rankings and the consensus ECR.
But the upside case for Watson is so convincing to buy into, presuming his hamstring injuries (11 missed games last two seasons) no longer hamper him in Year 3.
He missed the first three weeks of the 2023 season entirely and struggled to put together any consistent production until the final three games of the regular season when he unfortunately pulled his hamstring again. The 6-foot-4 and 208-pound WR scored four TDs while averaging 17.1 points per game (3rd in the NFL). He averaged 10.6 expected fantasy points per game (28th).
The Packers and Watson have gone to extreme lengths to ensure Watson’s health, with the WR going to the University of Wisconsin’s School of Medicine and Public Health for additional testing.
The tests revealed a muscle imbalance contributing to the issue. Watson has been diligently working to address this, aiming for symmetry between his legs to reduce strain and fatigue. His progress has impressed coaches, and he participated fully in recent offseason practices. Soft-tissue injuries are highly unpredictable, as is the clear-cut No. 1 WR on the Packers. Keep in mind that while Watson missed time last season, Jordan Love spread the targets between Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and the two tight ends.
But when Watson was healthy, he was the WR1.
I hate to tell everyone (I don't)…
That when Christian Watson played more than 50% of the snaps…he was STILL GB's WR1.
Just like his rookie season when he operated as the WR9 from Week 10 onward as a rookie. His Year 1 26% target rate per route run was elite, ranking 17th among all WRs with at least 400 snaps. His 2.47 yards per route run ranked inside the top 10. From Week 10 through Week 18, Watson ranked first in yards per route run (2.78). Over the same span, Watson was the WR9 in both total points and on a per-game basis.
And aside from being the leading receiver when healthy in 2023, he was still a red-zone savant. 13 red-zone targets in just nine games. Watson totaled a whopping 15 end-zone targets during the regular and postseason combined — sixth most among all WRs.
Over the last 15 games, he has still averaged 13.3 points per game in half-point scoring—the same as Ja’Marr Chase from 2023.
I can’t help but compare Watson’s injury troubles, layered with supreme upside, to Will Fuller’s early years. In Year 3, it all came together for Fuller. See the points per game below for the two players.
Year 1: Will Fuller — WR20 (7 games)
Year 2: Will Fuller — WR41 (11 games)
Year 3: Will Fuller — WR6 (11 games)
Year 1: Christian Watson — WR30 (14 games)
Year 2: Christian Watson — WR39 (9 games)
Year 3: Chrisitan Watson –???
At just 25 years old, Watson is everything a dynasty manager should be asking for.
Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
In 2023, Chris Godwin was the WR22 in dynasty ADP. Mike Evans was the WR38.
But after their first year with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, where Mike Evans stole the spotlight (and all the TDs), Godwin is now ranked as the WR43, with Evans at WR32.
Buying/acquiring Godwin isn’t a bet on long-term production or dynasty value but more of a proposition on cheap, immediate production. He fits the criteria of an older WR who has been written off in dynasty circles but still has plenty to offer. Godwin led the Buccaneers with 91 catches for 1,1109 receiving yards in 2023, but he only caught three TDs…in 19 games played. Meanwhile, Evans totaled 14 scores. Still, Godwin’s target share (23%) was nearly identical to Evans’ (25%).
But it was the lack of high-value opportunities that nuked Godwin in fantasy football. As a result, he finished with under 10 fantasy points per game (outside top-36 WRs). No player scored fewer TDs with more receiving yards than Godwin. This is a metric that is likely to regress positively. Based on the sheer volume/usage Godwin has seen, he should be closer to a total of double-digit scores versus the average of 3 TDs he has the past two years. At just 28 years old, Godwin could be in for a major bounce back if Evans takes a step back entering his age 31-season. It also works in Godwin’s favor that new OC Liam Coen has suggested this offseason, putting Godwin back into the slot in a full-time role. Godwin played his lowest slot snap rate (37%) since 2018 during the 2023 season.
And better yet, it’s a contract year for Godwin. So, his value could see an even bigger boost should he land another contract with a new team for the 2025 season. Therefore, if you look to acquire Godwin, keep tabs on acquiring rookie WR Jalen McMillan as well, who would see the biggest boost in playing time for the Buccaneers if Godwin departs in free agency.
I just can’t seem to quit Josh Palmer. I was also intrigued by him as a wide receiver dating back to his college days at Tennessee and early career with the Chargers. The reason I can’t seem to knock him is that he always steps up when given additional opportunities. When Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed games, Palmer always stepped up. And that included last season when he stepped up big time in the Chargers’ anemic offense.
In Week 18, he commanded 10 targets despite running on a 58% snap share. During the season, he posted an 18% target share and averaged 1.89 yards per route run. In games played without Williams fully healthy, Palmer averaged 10.6 points per game. During the final three games of the year, with neither top WR nor Justin Herbert available, Palmer hit a 20% target share and 23% target rate per route run, averaging 11.5 points per game (WR25).
The Chargers drafted Ladd McConkey at the top of the second round, so don’t go crazy with Palmer. Still, he’s a solid in-house option on the roster who already has built-in chemistry with Herbert. The only Chargers WR who can claim that.
That’s hardly the case with Quentin Johnston after his abysmal rookie season. Palmer could emerge as a super deep value as a late-round WR selection if McConkey can’t ditch the injury bug that frustrated him in college. He is playing in the final year of his rookie contract and should see a sizeable amount of work in the Chargers offense. He will turn 25 in September.
Early in the offseason, I coined Palmer as a candidate to be the year’s “Nico Collins.” The drafting of McConkey lessens my stance on that take, but don’t ignore Palmer as the most seasoned veteran on this Chargers WR depth chart. Remember, that the Texans’ selection of Tank Dell last year in Round 3 didn’t hinder the Collins breakout.
Also, what’s been lost in the praise from GM Joe Hortitz about Johnston is his praise for Palmer entering Year 4.
“I’m really excited about Josh,” Hortiz said in mid-March. “I think he is at that point in his career where he is a vet now and he’s worked under two receivers. “When he’s been given opportunities, he’s been on the field when those two haven’t been and he’s produced for us,” Hortiz added. “I’ve gotten to know him pretty good over the past couple six weeks I’ve been here, so I expect him to step up his game.”
Pat Freiermuth is TE16 per Dynasty League football ADP and TE17 in the dynasty trade value chart but slots in as the TE11 in my latest dynasty rankings.
Freiermuth was 27th in points per game during the regular season (5.1) in 12 games and 5.5 points per game, including the postseason. He hardly moved the needle despite ranking 16th in route participation. He dealt with injuries, and the Steelers offense wasn’t good enough to support three viable pass-catchers, plus the RBs. However, it wasn’t all bad.
His three spiked weeks suggest he can still deliver when called upon. There’s only a handful of tight ends capable of a 9-120 stat line on 11 targets with Kenny Pickett at QB.
His 2023 TE29 finish is the worst of his career, after finishing as the TE8 and TE13 the two previous seasons. Smells like an outlier for a young, uber-talented tight end with draft capital (former 55th overall pick).
Now is a great opportunity to buy the dip on the 25-year-old in a contract year with a better QB in Pittsburgh. And although many hate Steelers OC Arthur Smith, he has always featured tight ends in his offense (at least from a target perspective). The Falcons ranked third in targets to tight ends in 2023.
Targets should be available for Freiermuth with George Pickens the only established target-earner on the Steelers offense.
Tucker Kraft is ranked outside the top-20 tight ends in consensus, but he slides in as my TE14.
Kraft commanded six targets (18.2%), catching three receptions for nine yards and a touchdown with multiple red-zone looks in the Packers’ postseason finale. Fellow rookie tight end Luke Musgrave was involved early on but was still drastically behind Kraft in snaps (85% vs. 28%).
The sample size we saw from these two TEs when both were active last season was Kraft dominating the snaps and playing time over Musgrave. So that’s the way I would rank them heading into the 2024 season and beyond. Kraft singles, baby!
He’s been severely overlooked. And I expect his price to only become cheaper with him sitting out OTAs due to an arm injury. Buy the dip on the most talented tight end on the Packers roster.
