The 2025 NFL season fantasy football season is just days away, so you need to be prepared for your fantasy football draft. Of course, there’s no better way to do that than by practicing with our free fantasy football mock draft simulator.
Beyond our tools, we will have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.
The goal of every fantasy football manager is to complete the perfect draft. Impossible, you say? Let’s call it a stretch goal and strive for fantasy football glory. Here’s my perfect 2025 fantasy football draft powered by FantasyPros brand-new real-time ADP.
The 2025 NFL season fantasy football season is just days away, so you need to be prepared for your fantasy football draft. Of course, there’s no better way to do that than by practicing with our free fantasy football mock draft simulator.
Beyond our tools, we will have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.
The goal of every fantasy football manager is to complete the perfect draft. Impossible, you say? Let’s call it a stretch goal and strive for fantasy football glory. Here’s my perfect 2025 fantasy football draft powered by FantasyPros brand-new real-time ADP.
I know what you’re thinking. Erickson, why are you still writing fantasy football articles and not sitting pretty, sipping Mai Tais on your private island from all your winnings? Well, informed reader, I got spooked by the Chase contract holdout late into draft season. As a result, I moved Breece Hall to RB1 and first overall… Yikes.
I won’t make the mistake again.
I’ve toyed with the idea of Bijan Robinson (RB1) over Ja’Marr Chase (I just recalled that the Falcons did throw out “Bijan Robinson in the Christian McCaffrey role” last offseason), but I just don’t feel the need to do it. Even with roster builds feeling slightly better with RB starts at the 1.01 (based on the crop of WRs vs RBs at the Round 2/3 turn). Round 3 is super polarizing, and I’m not sure I like the idea of having a more ambiguous round influence my No. 1 overall pick. Besides, the Falcons are going to miss starting RT Kaleb McGary for 2025 the season. Not ideal to lose your starting tackle on your second-year QB’s blindside two weeks before the season starts. Swing tackle Storm Norton also got hurt, but is expected to return in Week 5. Given the lack of depth at RT, expect more two tight ends sets from the Dirty Birds to help protect Penix’s blindside. Elijah Wilkinson is expected to start.
Even with the amount of parity atop the standings every year in fantasy football, Chase is “chasing” Antonio Brown (for the right reasons) as he attempts to be the first back-to-back WR1 fantasy finisher since 2015. And with Joe Burrow as his quarterback, he seems as primed as ever to repeat.
So for me after Chase, it’s Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson to round out my top-five overall players. Felt that way back in the middle of June, and don’t feel the need to change anything.
Also, I’m much lower on Amon-Ra St. Brown as a first-round pick. But besides those two players, I’ve got no qualms about the rest of the first round crop. It’s extremely deep this year, which is why I often prefer picking toward the end.
A common theme with fantasy football positional tiers is to stay out of the middle, and I think you can make the same application here within round one.
I love the idea of going Christian McCaffrey/Ashton Jeanty and then the best available wide receiver in round two (Drake London). The same approach works with a top-three selection with either Robinson or Gibbs.
I’m not even opposed to double-tapping receivers at the round one/round two turn, although I prefer it in full PPR formats where the best WRs can really flex.
All things considered, I do prefer going with a running back more than a wide receiver in round one.
And that’s because it’s very likely I’ll go the wide receiver route in the second round (again Drake London). But every rule has exceptions and Nico Collins is the WR I am drafting ahead of the CMC, Jeanty, Barkley RB tier etc.
Sure a Collins-London start isn’t an ideal “build” per se, but I just can’t pass on two guys that I think have the highest odds of finishing as the fantasy WR1 overall outside the top-3. I know can still get some high upside RBs in Rounds 3-4 that can be my hero baby…
A first-round back sets you up greatly for a Hero RB build, which is the strategy I typically abide by before entering any draft.
You’ve got one spot dialed in, and the other spot can be filled by the rotating carousel of remaining running backs on your roster.
I believe the golden standard approach of selecting a running back with your first- or second-round pick has not changed. Yes, I understand how hip it is to draft wide receivers and go Zero RB in recent years.
But running backs who see work as both receivers/rushers score the most points. Running backs are still the drivers behind fantasy-winning teams, so get your talented studs early because the backs who score the most points are drafted accordingly, based on average draft position (ADP) data. The longer you wait, the odds of landing a true Hero RB diminish.
And there’s no better time to get back in on running backs. We have a strong crop of diverse, hungry and young running backs in the player pool. It’s also why you can find high producing RBs outside the first two rounds. This is where the majority of rookie RBs can be found.
I bet last season that we would return to the glory days when the top running backs would reign supreme as they had done the two previous seasons. It wasn’t exactly how I thought it would play out, but veteran running backs were more productive (and healthy). It was a bit of an outlier season by health standards.
But even so, draft running backs in the early rounds that you think can be league-winners and true difference-makers. You’re not looking for floor or value this early on. Shoot for the moon or punt running back down the road. You’d be surprised how easy it is to fill your fantasy RB2 slot.
Solidifying a top back early also helps you avoid reaching for running backs in the dreaded RB Dead Zone (RB2 range), where your primary focus should be drafting wide receivers poised for significant leaps in 2025 and/or elite quarterbacks/tight ends. This year, the WRs right outside the tpop-24 range is an absolute sweet spot to swing on upside (Starting in Round 5).
There’s a long tier of running backs drafted after the top options who can be true Hero RBs, where you are much better off just waiting, with such a gradual decline in projection. It’s important to identify backs that can stand out from the crowd. If you are going to take a running back early, you can’t have any reservations about their upside. If you do, you are better off waiting on running backs with similar median projections at much better prices.
Especially considering wide receivers in full PPR can score a lot of points. And the top of the position looks primed to stake its claim — I will divulge more later.
From 2018 to 2020, in PPR scoring, wide receivers had the highest percentage of top-12 finishes (55%). In 2021, seven of the top 12 overall finishers (58%) were receivers, with six finishing in the top eight. That was true in both PPR and half-PPR. However, the trend did not continue in 2022. Just six wideouts finished inside the top 12, with five backs and one tight end (Travis Kelce). Only four inside the top eight, and an even split between receivers/backs inside the top six. In half-PPR, five running backs finished inside the top eight overall, with just three wideouts.
In 2023, half-PPR scoring was evenly split between the top 12 finishers. For three straight seasons, fewer receivers have finished inside the top 12. Four running backs finished inside the top seven compared to three receivers. In the last two seasons, only three wideouts have finished inside the top eight of overall scoring. Current fantasy football ADP has five wide receivers drafted inside the top eight, compared to three running backs.
In 2024, three wide receivers finished inside the top 12 in half-PPR (four in full PPR). The veteran running back renaissance smoked the wideouts. Now, for four straight seasons, fewer wideouts have finished inside the top 12. Last year, it was 8-4 overall. Inside the top seven, it was 5-2. In the last three seasons, only five wide receivers have finished inside the top eight of overall scoring.
Real-time ADP has three wideouts drafted inside the top eight, with the other five being running backs (it’s a 4-4 split in full PPR).
Some wide receivers are being drafted early who will be outscored by running backs selected after them. Again, to be clear, it’s less likely in PPR than in half-PPR.
But given how strong the WR1 tier is in drafts in the first two rounds this year, you’ve got to come away with at least one. Wide receivers should be healthier than they were last season, whereas running backs are more likely to get hit by the injury bug after their “health luck” in 2024.
This sets the stage for Hero RB to be the strategy to follow in 2025: One stud running back early (can be Rounds 1-2 but not necessarily), a plethora of receivers in the middle rounds, an elite quarterback and/or tight, followed by shot after shot on this amazingly talented rookie running back class that could be the best we’ve seen since 2017.
All in all, I’d like to start my draft with one RB and one WR after the first two rounds. However, if Collins-London are my highest-ranked guys, I’m going WR-WR start and will address RB later on. But if Collins is gone as well (9.8 real-time ADP), I’ll start with Jeanty/CMC/Henry and follow up with London in Round 2.
If I snag Collins and miss on London later on…take your pick between the remaining Round 2 RBs: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs and Bucky Irving.
And I think that’s why Brock Bowers isn’t part of my perfect draft. Not a fade on him specifically but more about the RBs in his draft range (while acknowledging Trey McBride and George Kittle look better versus RB/WRs in their draft ranges).
It’s Drake London SZN, folks. The Falcons receiver has the chance to be the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver this season, and I don’t want to miss out on it. Admittedly the McGary injury sucks for the Falcons offensive line…but I still feel London is a great pick in Round 2.
I feel pretty strong about Nico Collins as a clear-cut dark horse WR1 overall target as well (hence my love for him in Round 1).
And I expect both their teams to get off to fast starts given their early-season schedules.
The Falcons’ opening schedule — Buccaneers, Vikings, Panthers, Commanders — before a Week 5 bye week is pretty juicy for this offense to get off to a hot start compared to last season. Also, the Falcons will play 11 of their 17 games indoors (including all three in the fantasy playoffs).
I love this opening stretch for C.J. Stroud in a potential bounce-back season — Rams, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Titans and Ravens before a Week 6 bye.
The fantasy playoffs also look very nice for the Texans, given they will play indoors in all but one game from Week 13 onward.
In the last two seasons, Nico Collins is just one of three wideouts to average 14.6+ fantasy points per game (PPG). Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown were the other two.
Because I’m so bullish on Collins/London, I’ll start WR-WR if I have to…betting on the rookie RBs delivering me some league-winning upside later on. Yes, it sucks to miss out on the Round 1-2 RBs…but the I “am all” in on Collins/London being an elite WR duo in 2025.
But like I said above, I’d like to select a running back with my first pick for an ideal roster build if Collins is off the board.
After all, it just feels good to start with a running back/wide receiver combination in the first two rounds, with paths for both players to finish first overall at their respective positions.
As you outline your plan of attack, you should have some idea of what you’ll do in round two based on who you selected in round one.
When you ask me what my favorite spot to pick from in a 12-team league is, I will most likely reply with the end of the first round. And that’s behind the idea that I can select Drake London in round two, so be sure to look at your drafting site’s ADP (and the real-time ADP).
While it is enticing to have Ja’Marr Chase as the 1.01, it seemingly forces your hand into a running back at the 2-3 turn. And the tier drop is real with most the highest-ranked RBs off the board.
If you aren’t sold on those backs, you might need to wait longer at the position. Ideally, Bucky Irving or Chase Brown is there. Elite QB (safest) is also an option along with Trey McBride.
I think my ideal start with Chase at 1.01 would be as follows (presuming a RB doesn’t fall). Elite QB and Omarion Hampton/James Cook/Kenneth Walker. Don’t want to double dip at RB here (too risky) with some RB values/WR targets coming up Rounds 4-5.
If you go to Bijan Robinson at 1.02, it’s probably taking you completely out of the top 12 wide receiver range by the time your next pick comes around. Feel free to take a shot on Trey McBride, Ladd McConkey, Tee Higgins and Mike Evans to add pass-catchers. RBs are the same as the Chase scenario although, not forcing with Bijan locked in as our hero RB.
Through the first two rounds, my focus is on the elite backs and wideouts. I want two elite players, regardless of their position, with my first two picks. If the board dictates those are two wide receivers, one running back and one wide receiver, etc., so be it.
Make sure you have tiers in your cheat sheet. Create your own custom cheat sheet with this link.
The way that the board looks based on early ADP, your best bet at two elite players is either RB/WR or WR/WR starts, picking closer to the end of round one.
I recommend following a Hero RB approach rather than a Zero WR or Robust RB one. Every draft is different, so you should always remain fluid in your approach. But based on the data at our disposal, following the former should set your roster up for success in the early rounds.
Just factors to consider if you have the option to pick your draft slot.
Round 3 is where we have typically seen elite quarterbacks come off the board.
I usually don’t follow this. Being the first to draft a quarterback doesn’t always grant you the highest return on investment (ROI).
Value is still the name of the game when it comes to quarterbacks, so I stress a pseudo-late-round “elite” quarterback strategy. Essentially getting the last or second-to-last quarterback with top-tier upside to capitalize on value.
Of course, this will change based on where quarterbacks fall in ADP, but rounds 4-6 is the more appropriate range. Round four is traditionally the earliest I’d even consider an elite quarterback with either Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts (more to come). But unless they fall, I am almost 100% waiting longer at the quarterback position.
However, given the player pool in Round 3 (extremely polarizing in my opinion), I actual like just taking the safe bet between Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson. Possible they aren’t the “best” picks in this range given the value over replacement, but these guys are locks to produce barring injury with their dual-set skill sets. That cannot be said for many RB/WRs drafted in this similar range.
Ideally, after round two, you have acquired at least one elite running back as your Hero RB to join your top-12 receiver. That’s my “perfect” RB-WR start.
This approach makes staying fluid and flexible for the next few rounds much easier. It’s important to get exposure to at least one running back in the first two rounds (or of similar caliber in Rounds 3/4) because the talent pool starts to fall off toward the end of round three and into round four. Essentially, you almost run out of reliable Hero RB targets. I discuss more in-depth in my early-round fantasy football best ball strategy guide.
Now this is more opinion than fact, as we sometimes see “heroes” emerge from the Dead Zone (drafted as RB2s). Sometimes, second-round players fall into the third round, etc. But it doesn’t happen often. Your goal drafting in this range has to be a focus on upside. You can get RB vales later on. Take the leap here at RB with guys like Kenneth Walker or Omarion Hampton. James Cook is the floor play in this range
Besides, the middle rounds are chock-full of wide receiver talent, which should be the primary focus.
If any RB stud back falls into the third round 3, scoop them up. Especially in half-PPR leagues, where running backs are better targets versus receivers, with the format more dependent on touchdowns.
The running backs in this range come with more question marks, but there’s no denying they have some high ceilings if the deck is stacked in their favor.
When I first wrote my perfect draft I was considering having two New York Jets as targets in this range; it’s easy to see how unsettling round three and four can be.
And I understand why the elite quarterbacks go in this range — bank the points; don’t deal with the headaches.
Going the elite QB route worked wonders last season because round three was a landmine last season; devastated by injuries and busts alike. Fast-forward a year later and it’s filled to the brim with polarizing players such as Kyren Williams, Tyreek Hill, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin etc. Well these guys were going in Round 3…but many have fallen into Round 4 given the ambiguity surrounding their projections
Admittedly, I opened the year a bit bearish on Hall, come around on him, just to be concerned about him again. To be honest, last year’s devastation left me with MAJOR some scar tissue. I’ve reach the point with Hall where I’m just going to trust my ranking on him. I understand all the concerns about the Jets’ committee but he’s still Breece Hall. An uber explosive pass-catching back that can still thrive on a smaller workload. Also could get traded. Seen him fall into Round 5 in some drafts, and that’s too far for me to pass on him.
Because their should still be volume for him in a Jets run-heavy offense. He’s explosive. He catches passes. And even though Justin Fields‘ mobility suggests he won’t check the ball down, a lackluster wide receiver depth chart behind Garrett Wilson puts Hall in a position to see his fair share of receiving opportunities. The Jets’ new offensive coordinator (from Detroit) oversaw Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery as notable receivers. And Fields has been more apt to check down the last two seasons (15.5%).
Although last season did not materialize as many drafters had hoped with Hall, he was still recognized by consensus as a potential RB1 overall candidate. We talked about how not a ton of RBs feel like great clicks. Hall is a shoot for the ceiling in this range. I cannot guarantee that it will work. But it’s the right process. Trust the process.
Hell, I wrote about Hall’s floor in Round Three back in June. And nothing as really changed, as the it’s been committee expectations since the new regime stepped in.
I like Hall’s floor in Round 5. Last season, before his injury, he was the fantasy RB7 through 11 weeks and RB13 in points per game (14.6). The ceiling case is just based on what the 2025 Jets offense can/will be.
Early-Round Players to Target
Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen
Mid-Round Players to Target
Trey McBride, Tee Higgins, Mike Evans
Late-Round Players to Target
George Kittle, Kenneth Walker, Omarion Hampton
Approach to Round 4
The fourth-round wide receivers are in a similar tier as those in round three, so continue to pound away at the position in search of breakout potential or lock in fantasy WR2 production with one of the veterans (Davante Adams or Mike Evans). Again, this tier of WRs is not my favorite, which I why I don’t feel the need to prioritize any single one in Round 3.
I’m just not drafting two guys at the 3/4 turn between Tyreek Hill and Terry McLaurin.
If you have only one running back rostered (or none), don’t panic unless there’s an obvious running back faller available. Kenneth Walker III would be the name to watch. I think he can be a Hero RB when healthy. And just grab Zach Charbonnet as the Robin to Walker’s Batman.
I’d take Walker as high as Round 3, but concerns about his injuries have suppressed his ADP. Buy the dip.
I’d also say that if you have your Hero RB, with two other strong receivers, I am not opposed to going elite quarterback here.
Jalen Hurts in Round 4 feels like an absolute steal. Since 2021, he has been no worse than eighth (eight, one, six, three) overall in PPG in half-PPR across all positions. With round three, the range where quarterbacks traditionally come off the board, you are getting Hurts at a deal with QB1 overall upside, a full round later.
If you are looking at RB here, I think you are still shooting for the highest upside cases. I actually like this even more when I already have a Round 1-2 RB locked in. I feel like I can take more of a swing at RB2 knowing I have a stable floor in my RB1 slot.
At the start of the middle rounds of drafts, you must come prepared with an optimal and flexible approach. Following up on a strong start is critical to your success. The player pool isn’t as strong as at the beginning of the draft, but the difference in hitting on the right guys in this range can make or break your roster.
Don’t try to be perfect; get as many shots on net as you can.
Four rounds deep, you have already drafted a good chunk of your team. This is your core. Your strategy may differ slightly depending on the foundation you built during the early portion of your draft. Ergo, if you already roster three strong running backs for some reason (or at least ones you spent high draft capital on), there’s virtually no need to address the position in any capacity. Depth, especially in leagues where you have access to the waiver wire, tends to be overrated in fantasy football.
The overarching approach to the middle rounds remains static for the most part, regardless of what you have already done. The focus is still on drafting the best player available. Too often, drafters make the mistake of drafting for need in the middle rounds, when the priority should be filling your roster with as many potential level jumpers or league-winners as humanly possible. Especially at the wide receiver position. Because it’s easy to find plug-in production (especially at running back) later on.
Focus on drafting players that have difference-making upside in their range of outcomes.
The name of the game with wide receivers is to scoop up value in the middle-to-later portions of drafts, with the position counting for the biggest part of your roster in leagues that require you to start three receivers. Take advantage of wideouts who fall in ADP, while other teams “reach” on running backs they think they need. The same goes for the reverse narrative. Take advantage of backs that fall in ADP while others reach on subpar wide receivers they think they need.
You will be shocked how quickly the wide receiver position dries up despite the false narrative that the position is deep every year. It’s not deep. If anything, it’s extremely diluted outside of the top 12, which makes it much more essential you draft the remaining wideouts toward the start of the middle rounds. You’ll feel (and perform) much better knowing you aren’t trudging out wideouts ranked outside the top 40 as your weekly WR3.
Wide receivers in the middle rounds tend to take massive leaps and vastly outperform their ADP. Others comically crash and burn, but we just need one or two hits for a net positive return.
When in doubt, keep drafting wide receivers who have breakout potential. Chances are they all won’t hit… but all you need is one to hit big to reap the benefits. Draft rookie wide receivers. Aggressively.
The WR18-WR50 ADP range remains the richest pool for first-time WR1s. The sweet spot lies from the end of round three to round eight.
Gravitate toward the pass-catchers in a high-powered offense with some target ambiguity versus the guy who has a more obvious high-end target floor in a bad offense. And do not shy away from the real-life No. 2 WRs… as these players often represent the best fantasy values because their ADPs are almost always suppressed as they aren’t their team’s “No. 1 WR.”
But be wary that you need to be price-sensitive to these WR2s. For example, in 2023, the most expensive WR2s — Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins — failed to live up to expectations.
Make sure you are getting the real-life No. 2 WR discount. Because you should be, or else it’s bad business.
In round five specifically, you’ll want to bolster depth with the next tier of wide receivers and/or running backs. But do your best to push running back out as much as possible in this range, coined the RB Dead Zone. Note that this is specific to non-rookie backs, who I wouldn’t categorize as Dead Zone RBs. They are more like breakout wideouts based on their large range of outcomes.
I want to live in this WR zone dedicating at least 2-3 selections over the next four rounds (5-8).
Try to go wide receiver or rookie running back before adding another running back value. Elite quarterbacks will probably be gone at this point, but don’t be afraid to pull the trigger if a top-tier passer falls. A lot of people believe in the late-round QB strategy so sometimes the top guys can become supreme values.
I would like to note that James Conner has some optics of a Dead Zone RB in that Round 4-5 area, but he goes late enough that I feel the price to pay for his healthy early-season production is justified if your roster needs some stability at running back (maybe you waited longer for your Hero RB).
Many of the elite quarterbacks will be off the board before this round. If you desire a quarterback, draft whichever top-tier passer, if any, remains. The opportunity cost of drafting an elite quarterback is so much better in rounds 5-7 versus rounds 2-4.
And as always, don’t feel pressured to draft a signal-caller if you are bullish on a RB/WR/TE because there are still plenty of great options in the following rounds.
Again, to hammer your edge at wide receiver, you need to hit on these discounted No. 2 WRs in the middle-to-late rounds as the actual difference-makers/level-jumpers. The RB Dead Zone and the WR Shred Zone are the same.
Another thing to consider is that scoring tends to be flatter. Again, you have the elite elite wideouts at the top. In 2023, the top five scorers were at 17+ PPG. They were also in the top seven overall picks in ADP.
In 2024, the top five scorers were at 15+ points per game. The ones who played a full season were drafted as top-eight overall picks in ADP.
If you can draft a truly elite fantasy wideout in rounds 1-2, as alluded to at the top, it’s worth it. But after the elite guys, we see things stagnate and scoring flatten. Wideouts ranked sixth to 21st fluctuated between 15-14.7 and 12.5-12.1 PPG. Receivers from 22nd to 46th score between 12 and 9.5-9.0 PPG. Ergo, non-elite fantasy wideouts are basically all just fantasy WR2s. And low-end fantasy WR2s are just a massive tier that leaks into the WR4 range.
The significant point drop after the elite tier, although admittedly there is a strong tier behind Chase/Jefferson/Lamb, is a flatter scoring curve for the wide receivers ranked 10th and beyond, up to the WR4 range (top-48).
In past years, the data suggested it’s a viable strategy to wait on drafting wide receivers after the elite options are off the board, particularly in drafts where the value of securing top performers at other positions (such as running backs or quarterbacks who may have a steeper drop-off in scoring) could outweigh the benefits of selecting an elite or pseudo elite wide receiver outside the top 10. The reasoning here is that you might still be able to draft wideouts with similar scoring expectations later, allowing you to maximize value at other positions in the earlier rounds.
But this year, with wide receiver at the top being a bit deeper because of the 2024 WR class, we as drafters can have our cake and eat it too. We can access elite WR1 seasons later in round one and round two because of how great it is at the top. The exact tiering might vary, whether it’s eight, 10 or 12, etc. But I’m finding it hard, if not extremely difficult, not to select at least one of my top-12 ranked wide receivers in the first two rounds.
Non-elite fantasy wideouts tend to just be fantasy WR2s. And low-end fantasy WR2s are just a massive tier that leaks into the WR4 range.
So it’s not WR1, WR2, WR3, etc. It’s more like elite WR, WR2 and WR4 as the 3 tiers of wide receivers based on last year’s scoring.
This supports the strategy of potentially waiting to draft wide receivers after the top performers are off the board, as the variance in performance increases, but it doesn’t drastically change once you move past the top 20 at the position.
Focus on players who could make major leaps based on archetype. Not necessarily their median projection.
If a receiver in the middle rounds looks and smells cheap, they probably are. And the same goes for if you feel they are overvalued.
Because inherently the way receiver scoring is, those with higher ADPs are more difficult bets to return on their ADP. They are preferred for a reason — upside arguments, etc. But there’s no denying you can always grab another wide receiver a round later that will probably meet or potentially exceed a player before them in scoring.
However, you must acknowledge you can’t keep punting the position because there is another cliff after the WR4 tier. Eventually, you need to compile points at the position, even if it’s a neutral or negative-EV selection at the time of drafting.
There’s a reason the “late-round receiver” strategy hasn’t caught on like its late-round counterparts. It does not work nearly as successfully compared to waiting at the other positions. And why is this? Two-fold. Wide receivers are just tough to project year to year because they are more dependent on their surroundings (quarterback, offensive line, etc.). And most leagues require three starting receiver slots by default, with a fourth eligible in the Flex sport. High demand, low supply.
Be firm and concise in creating three or four tiers for receivers, with an elite tier (potential for top-five scoring), a pseudo elite tier (just on the cusp of WR1), a top-20 tier and then a 21-48 range tier where you can pick your flavor. Based on your platform’s ADP, you can mix up your receiver exposure in this range.
For me, the top three wideouts are clear as day. After that, I could see a lot of arguments for the next 6-8 guys.
It’s not until we get to Terry McLaurin or Marvin Harrison Jr. that things start to taper off in the back-end WR2 range (WR16 range in Round 4).
And after we hit Jerry Jeudy as my WR36, there’s a clear drop-off in the wide receiver rankings with rookies, second-year receivers and third-year receivers entering the conversation. Time to shoot your shot.
Updated Rice’s write up in my players to avoid article because he’s no longer an avoid for him with his suspension at the start of the season.
Rice will now serve a six-game suspension to start the season. He’s eligible to return Week 7. I think this is actually better for his fantasy value as managers will presumably have him for the second half/fantasy playoffs (and avoid a tougher slate of defenses the KC Chiefs have to face to open the year) while also having full rosters with less injuries/bye weeks to overcome.
Keep in mind that last season Puka Nacua missed 6 games and still finished as a top-30 WR overall in half-PPR. And that’s because he was dominate on a per-game basis in the second half of the season. Rice’s real-time ADP was already dropping to the WR29-WR32 (Round 6-7) under the impression his suspension would be at the start of the season. I don’t think that this news will necessarily boost his ADP (he is still missing 6 games, not 2 or 4) but I think fantasy managers might be overweighing how that actual impacts their roster. I’m targeting Rice round 6 if his ADP holds (or falls even further as it’s in Round 7 in half-PPR).
Had @LordReebson the podcast a few weeks back and I thought he did a great job of outlining why Rashee Rice missing games to start the year isn’t the worst thing. Video below.
Once you’ve got a plethora of breakout and staple wideouts to work with (after all, late-round wide receiver is not usually a winning formula), I now permit you to dive back into the running back pool before we enter the double-digit rounds.
I can guarantee you will feel better about overloading with receiver breakouts than settling for an RB2 because you have to in the first six rounds.
Because after wide receivers, breakout running backs are the next target in the middle rounds. Specifically, once the drafts enter the late RB2/early RB3 range (RB20-RB38) or running backs with a top-40 ADP.
That group has traditionally had the greatest hit rate for fantasy running backs.
However, last year was not the case — RB20-RB36 was terrible. Part of that was due to the majority of BACKS staying healthy last season without any rookies rising to the occasion. Last season was not the norm.
Bhayshul Tuten (RB45) was once in this range…but has fallen to the later rounds. Buy the dip. Conversely, Jacory Croskey-Merritt has risen into the tier of top-40 RBs. End of Round 7/start of Round 8 I am fine pulling him up. Anything more than that is a bit too rich for me.
Identify running backs with the potential to see/possess goal-line roles in high-scoring offenses. Pinpointing a team’s primary red-zone back is an easy way to hit on a fantasy running back.
If you are low on the “starter,” you should naturally be higher on the No. 2 RB in the same backfield. Didn’t believe in Rachaad White? You should have drafted more of Bucky Irving (I wish I did). And people wonder why I’ve drafted so much Will Shipley in best ball…
Target impending free agent running backs.
The biggest hits from 2022 include Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders and Jamaal Williams. In 2023, it wasn’t as successful, but I wanted to see if this was a trend or more of an outlier. In 2024, we saw a ton of running backs on new teams hit in a big way after signing big contracts.
What’s interesting, though, is that many who were forced to play on one-year deals, such as Dobbins, Jones, Conner, Harris, Dowdle and Hubbard, provide solid ROIs.
Guys like Conner/Hubbard earned extensions before the season ended after showing out. What’s even more interesting is that these two backs played on the two teams that invested some of the highest draft capital into running backs in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Notable running back free agents at the end of the 2025 season include:
Aim for running backs on teams with no clear-cut starter — aka ambiguous backfields. This is where breakout running backs are often found.
Other major hitters were running backs who boasted pass-catching chops. Volume is and remains king. When in doubt, draft the guy who has a proven track record.
Bet on explosive backs who can make plays as receivers.
Bet against running backs on offenses that have not yet proven to be above average, while treading lightly on running backs that don’t have a lot of job security.
With running backs, ask yourself: What would it take for RB “X” to lose the starting job?
Seriously. Do it.
Fade expensive early-season opportunities in favor of late-season production when the weeks and points become more critical in specific formats. You need to strike a balance between early and late-season production. Drafting the upside rookie early is fine as long as you draft the dusty old veterans later on to backfill the weeks while the rookies get ramped up (cc Browns dirt cheap RBs).
Hitting on the right running back late can be the true difference-maker.
For the remaining onesie positions, you are once again playing the value game.
My favorite signal-callers to target from Rounds 9-plus include Justin Fields, Drake Maye and Jordan Love.
The same approach goes for the tight end position. By no means am I willing to draft a tight end in the middle rounds that doesn’t have elite upside. And again, they need to fall past their ADP. That’s why using tiered rankings is so critical to your success, as it helps you unearth draft values by preventing reaches.
Stay out of the middle at tight end as best you can.
The only tight ends I am actively targeting in the “middle” rounds (just based on ADP, not my perception of them as middling-tier tight ends) are David Njoku, Tucker Kraft and Tyler Warren. I think Kraft/Warren could make the jump to elite tight end territory while Njoku should easily be a top-5 producer in an offense with Joe Flacco at the helm. I like double-dipping at tight end if I wait as well between Kraft and the rookies.
It’s loaded with strong quarterback options this year, along with more potential league winners like Braelon Allen, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (current real-time ADP), Jayden Reed (falling due to foot injury) and all the Bills WRs.
Loved Reed as a late-round option but the news of him having a Jones fracture in his foot is very concerning. He is expected to play through it, but that puts him at a high level of both declined efficiency and re-injury risk. WOOF.
You should be actively implementing “what if” thought exercises in the late rounds of your fantasy football drafts. Simply put, “if ‘X’ happens, what would that do to ‘X’ player’s value?”
Again, this is most seen from injuries, with players seeing spikes in production/value when a teammate goes down. Some players have that factored into their ADPs with injury-prone teammates, but others do not. And at the end of the day, it’s full-contact football.
We can’t always project when/if said injuries will happen (although I am very in on injury-level regression at the team level), but savvy drafters can stockpile the back of their drafts with talented players who are being discounted because of their situation.
When in doubt. Fade overhyped and great roles/situations. Buy the talent that falls. One is stickier than the other.
Don’t overvalue early-season opportunities versus talent. Just buy the dip when ADP is so suppressed due to the situation. And don’t forget about the players who delivered worthwhile performances in the past when they were presented with opportunities. Being a proven asset in some capacity matters.
Players don’t always produce when teammates get hurt. Find those who step up when called upon, even in brief stints. These are the archetypes of players you should be looking to target.
Don’t worry about what Player A’s role will be in Week 1 when you draft them in the late double digits. Chances are that doesn’t matter. Focus on their range of outcomes.
I also believe in another thought exercise of “He’s the discount version of Player X.” I find it very useful.
Players with defined roles that go extremely late can also be beneficial targets. The constant bombardment of “upside-centric” analysis makes these players not talked about enough. There’s an upside to playing an every-down role on an offense when heavily discounted. Particularly in deeper redraft formats or best ball, when you sometimes just need innings eaters. I know (base) ball.
Still, chasing the upside-centric dragon is not wrong. You want upside on your fantasy football teams. But some balance never hurts. Because “only-upside” players typically also have extremely shaky floors. And too many guys who fail to fire will leave your squad helpless.
Last note. Chase players projected for air yards and rookies. Air yards tell us how often a player is being used downfield, which is part of the formula when it comes to spike weeks of fantasy production. Particularly at wide receiver and tight end.
Some potential late-round options in 2025 drafts that commanded a high end of their team’s air yards (20% or higher) in 2024 included:
When it comes to rookies, you need to be aggressive in drafting them. This is the position that is great for taking shots in the later rounds.
Their ADPs often do not fully capture the upside they possess. The ADP acts more like a hedge or median projection when first-year players of recent years are so much more boom-or-bust. They either hit in a big way or flame out entirely. But it’s OK to miss.
They are lottery tickets frequently discounted outside of the top 36. Take full advantage when they are cheap. They won’t all hit. But being overweight on rookies will net you in the green.
Keep in mind, rookie wide receiver roles often grow as the season progresses. That makes them the perfect backfill targets for drafting formats with prize structures heavily based on the final few weeks of the season. My favorite strategy is drafting veterans and rookie wide receivers from the same teams. It’s a very underrated strategy that helps you capture an immense upside. Also, it guarantees you at least one “hit” from each receiver group you draft.
Last year would have looked like this from some of the top guys:
We didn’t see this work nearly as well as in 2023 (given a lot of the rookie wideouts were drafted as WR1s), but buying the discounted rookie/veteran receivers because of the presence of just one other pass-catcher makes it easier for them to smash their ADPs. If I draft Nico Collins in round one/round two, you better believe I am stocking up on the Texans’ rookie wideouts.
If you missed out on a quality tight end in the early rounds, then chasing quantity with multiple guys in the late rounds is your new strategy. But, in all honesty, this “late-round tier” starts after the top 5-6 guys (Travis Kelce/T.J. Hockenson).
I don’t overextend for any of these tight ends because the production will likely be negligible, at best, drafting toward the beginning of the tier versus the end. Wait and take shots on multiple tight ends. Ideally, ones with either a path for receiving volume, one with an every-down role and/or one with above-average athleticism.
I discussed ad nauseam the advantage you can acquire by drafting an elite tight end or quarterback in the early portions of your draft (especially in best ball). But chances are you aren’t doing both. Savvy drafters won’t let the elite onesie positions go by too frequently.
There’s a chance you might need to address the position as the middle rounds kick off. The “safe” route is going with the quarterback. Expensive tight ends bust at such a higher rate, historically speaking. Among the elite tier of Brock Bowers, George Kittle and Trey McBride, chances are one will bust (injury or not).
But on the flip side, there are so many options available with the late-round quarterback approach that you need to be very patient if you don’t grab a top-four guy earlier in the draft.
Among the top-10 quarterbacks last season in total points scored in 2022, eight rushed for at least 250 yards. In 2023, six of the top eight rushed for at least 240 yards. In 2024, 10 of the 13 highest-scoring fantasy quarterbacks rushed for at least 300 yards while attempting 500+ passes.
Call it the 50-30 rule. Can quarterback “X” throw 500+ times and/or rush for 300 yards? Those are your top targets.
The bolded signal-callers are in the 300 rushing yards range.
I also believe that what’s different this year is that it’s the year for the rookie running backs. Understandably, the veterans bounced back in 2024. Huge year for the older guys. But I don’t think it repeats. Get the young bucks. And honestly, I don’t care about the price.
You can draft a discount veteran running back later to fill the early-season production void.
Top Double-Digit Round Targets (Fine to Reach)
Note that I am “reaching” on guys one round early to ensure I can acquire all of my favorite sleepers.
You should always strive to get the most value out of each of your selections.
But the key to winning in fantasy football is to pair that value with early-round producers and/or early-season producers.
Sometimes, early-round players don’t feel like value picks.
But that’s why they are going early. They are projected to be good and don’t necessarily have obvious flaws. And most importantly, nobody remembers the ADPs of players that hit, unless they were essentially free at the end of drafts. If you are bullish on specific players and the price seems at least reasonable to a slight overpay, take the leap of faith.
Because there’s so much value that you can also get late in drafts. I think in the case of rookies, most of their ADPs are probably too high for our liking. But this is because they hit their stride in the weeks that matter most in the second half of the season.
So, sacrifice some value early to acquire league-winning rookie potential while adding early-season producers later on in your draft that you can start more confidently to open the year.
To bring in a betting allegory — I am a BettingPros expert, after all — you can have all the closing line value (CLV) in the world. And that should make you a profitable bettor over time. The same goes for drafting value in fantasy football. However, I’ve got a bookshelf full of closing line value (CLV) trophies that never amounted to anything. It doesn’t necessarily mean you were right about a certain player, team or situation, etc.
Conversely, I’ve made plenty of bets where I missed the value window, but ultimately, I was right, so it didn’t matter. We all want to get the best players at the best draft prices. Nobody wants to overpay. But if you truly believe based on your research, intel and perhaps gut that a certain player or team can be a major difference-maker, the price shouldn’t matter. Because when it’s all said and done, the value doesn’t win for you. The player does.
And when we talk about price (other than in salary cap formats), your currency is opportunity cost. Fading players have to be accompanied by the player you would draft instead. Because that’s what you are paying. Every pick you make is a pick against the other players selected in that round.
This concept dovetails nicely into my last (I promise) final thought experiment. You think Player A is going to smash.
But my response is if you want him, you must draft him in round one. No acceptations. Still, feeling bullish?
Do you like this player? Or do you just like the price of said player? Make sure you know the difference between the two types of players you are targeting. Because what often happens is you think you like a player, but you just like the price. But once the price changes, you don’t change your stance.
I lied. One more last takeaway.
I don’t know everything, but I can guarantee you will never draft a perfect fantasy football team (despite what my perfect draft article claims). Tournament-winning best ball teams that won millions of dollars have “bad picks” on them. I bring this up because you can strategically draft “misses” to better your team in the aggregate.
To bring up a real-life comparison, I’ll cite my final 2024 NFL Mock Draft for The Huddle Report. I placed very well in it because I attacked it with a different approach. I purposely let certain stud players fall, like Quinyon Mitchell and Dallas Turner, to teams they had been linked to throughout the process. I was essentially taking a loss in my estimation, so I could bolster my picks at the start, where I was more confident. I left my pursuit of perfection at the door, trying to get all 32 picks exactly right in exchange for a higher hit rate on my other picks.
And it got me thinking about how I could similarly approach fantasy football drafts. After all, I will draft players who bust or don’t do anything. And so, I bring forward the idea of hedging with your fantasy teams.
A lot of this is just running back handcuffing or wide receiver/tight end teammate stacking. I’ve been pretty against handcuffing running backs, especially in normal redrafts, but I’ve been more open to the idea when I’ve thought about it more. If I have to sacrifice a double-digit round pick to guarantee I’ll get RB1 production from my first- or second-round pick, I’m for it.
I’m not going to lie. It feels pretty good to draft Kenneth Walker in round four and then Zach Charbonnet later on to have a stranglehold on Seattle’s No. 1 RB.
And the same can be said for wide receiver/tight end stacking. Because once one player goes down, you know the opportunity will be there for another pass-catcher in the offense to step up. I mentioned this when referencing the veteran/rookie wide receiver draft strategy.
If the wide receiver/tight end starter stays healthy all year long and the rookie never sees the field? Well, I got a starter that produced all year long. I think the less you try to be 100% perfect with every single draft pick you make in pursuit of absurd levels of upside, the better off you will be.
Some might cite this as playing scared, but I think it’s playing smart. The best ability is availability. And you’ll never go broke making a profit. If the opportunity arises in a draft to hedge (cost being appropriate), you should take it.
