Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 44.5
Line: SEA by 5.5
QBs
Russell Wilson: If you played Wilson last week, you’re lucky to be standing in your fantasy playoffs. While the 49ers seem like a great matchup to get back on track, it might be another low volume game for Wilson. He played them two weeks ago and threw just 17 times for 185 yards, though four of his 11 completions were touchdowns. I mentioned this earlier in the year, but Wilson hasn’t had much success in the division over the last two seasons. Here’s his totals over the last two seasons against the 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals (most recent first): 185/4, 176/3, 198/3, 172/0, 221/2, 142/1, 228/2, 238/2, 198/1, 198/1. As you can see, he was very touchdown-heavy, as he didn’t total more than 238 yards in any of the 10 games, which is a solid sample size. The Seahawks just want to win the game and it’s unlikely they run up the score via the pass in a divisional road game. It’s odd because the 49ers have actually held opponents to 186 or less passing yards in three of the last four games, though they’ve allowed eight passing touchdowns in those three games. This matchup kind of fits Wilson’s recent performances, as the 49ers have allowed just 250.3 passing yards per game which ranks 21st in the league, while they’ve allowed a 6.18 touchdown percentage, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. He should be considered a low-end QB1 this week who is safer than most in that territory.
Nick Mullens: He’s been able to step-up over the last two weeks and deliver 746 yards and four touchdowns against the Seahawks and the Broncos. He’s the No. 6 quarterback over the last two weeks. Don’t get too excited, as a lot of his production against the Seahawks was in garbage time, as they were down multiple scores essentially the entire game. Not to say that can’t happen again, but it’s hard to see Mullens throw the ball 48 times like he did in Week 13 against them. Seahawks opponents average just 59.8 plays per game, so the 76 snaps run by the 49ers offense in Week 13 was an outlier. Prior to holding Kirk Cousins to one touchdown last week, the Seahawks had allowed at least two passing scores and 17.1 fantasy points in each of their last six games, so the defense you saw on Monday night may not be the defense you see in Week 15. Mullens does have Goodwin, Pettis, and Kittle running well, so he should be able to at least post dependable QB2 numbers, but I’d expect the Seahawks to run some sort of a ball-control style offense and play keep-away from the 49ers, keeping him off the streaming radar, though he’s not the worst option available in most leagues (I know many of you may have to choose between quarterbacks who are less than 40 percent owned).
RBs
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: Yeah, Carson is still the man in Seattle, as he’s averaged 18.3 touches per game over the last four weeks. His weakest performance of the bunch was against the 49ers, as he totaled 69 yards on 13 carries, but also chipped-in 39 yards on four receptions. Just last week, we watched them hold red-hot Phillip Lindsay to just 30 yards on 14 carries, though he did find the end zone. It’s not a matchup to target for timeshare running backs, as the 49ers have allowed 24 PPR points or less to seven of their last nine opponents. Keep in mind that’s teams of running backs, not individuals. They haven’t allowed a running back to finish better than RB20 since way back in Week 7, so it’s going to be tough for Carson to finish as anything more than a low-end RB2 this week, but given his touch-count, he should be in lineups. As for Penny, this isn’t a time to mess with him knowing the 49ers success against running backs this year. He’s seeing just 4-8 carries per game and hasn’t caught a pass since back in Week 9. If he doesn’t score a touchdown, he’s going to bust, making him just a mediocre RB4. Update: Penny has been ruled out for this game, increasing the appeal in starting Carson as a high-end RB2 who should see 18-plus touches. This also puts Mike Davis on the middling RB4 radar.
Matt Breida and Jeffrey Wilson: It was odd to see Wilson catch just one pass for six yards against the Broncos last week, yet still finish with 96 total yards. He carried the ball well against a team that had been destroying running backs over the last two months, so if Breida is out again, Wilson has become a bit more appealing. We don’t know much about Breida right now, but I’ll update the notes at the bottom of this paragraph come Saturday morning when we have more news. The Seahawks allowed the combination of Breida and Wilson (mostly Wilson) 191 total yards two weeks ago in Seattle, which was where Wilson burst onto the scene with eight catches for 73 yards. No matter which way this game goes, it’s clear that Wilson would be on the field. Over the last six weeks, there’s been three games where the Seahawks allowed more than 7.0 yards per carry, while they’ve held the other teams to less than 3.8 yards per carry. There’s no in-between here, but the fact that Wilson is so involved in the passing-game is huge, as the Seahawks have allowed 59 receptions for 582 yards and three touchdowns to running backs over the last eight games. If Breida is out, Wilson is in the middling to low-end RB2 conversation. If Breida plays, it becomes a bad time to be an owner of either of them. I’ll update this Saturday morning. Update: It appears as if Breida will give it a go this weekend, making both players a risk. We’ve tried predicting this backfield before and done so without success. Breida is the one who has the more guaranteed workload when timeshares occur, though Wilson has played well enough to warrant touches. Consider Breida a high-end RB3 while Wilson is just an RB4/flex option.
WRs
Tyler Lockett: If you’re a Lockett owner, consider yourself lucky that he wound up with five catches for 42 yards, as the rest of the team totaled just five catches for 30 yards. The last time they played the 49ers, Wilson threw the ball just 17 times, so to see Lockett with one catch for 52 yards and a touchdown should make some sense. The 49ers have allowed a top-24 receiver in 11-of-13 games this year with the only two exceptions being the Raiders in Week 9 and the Chargers all the way back in Week 4. With Doug Baldwin seemingly questionable at best for this game and Moore not catching a single pass last week, Lockett makes the most sense. If Baldwin is out, it would make his matchup all that better because he’ll play more snaps in the slot, where the 49ers have allowed some big games this year.
Doug Baldwin: He was a late scratch on Monday night, but if you were here last week, you already knew he wasn’t a great play against the Vikings, so here’s to hoping you benched him. We have no idea if he’ll be back this week, but the matchup is a very good one. The 49ers have allowed 21 wide receivers to finish as top-36 options against them this year, and nine of them were slot-heavy receivers. Baldwin wasn’t even one of them in the first matchup when he totaled two catches for 22 yards and a touchdown, as he finished as the WR37 that week. Wilson only threw the ball 17 times that game, so we shouldn’t have expected much. The 49ers have allowed nine wide receiver touchdowns over their last four games, which is more than the Jaguars have allowed (7) and as many as the Ravens, Vikings, and Texans have allowed on the entire season. If he plays, he’s surely in the low-end WR3 conversation as someone who’s touchdown-dependent, but this matchup has suited wide receivers like him well. Update: It appears that Baldwin is on track to play after getting in limited practices this week.
David Moore: After his first career 100-yard game in Week 12, Moore has gone silent, totaling six targets over the last two weeks but not catching any of them. He almost caught a touchdown but lacked awareness in getting his second foot down. Moore would be on Ahkello Witherspoon‘s side of the field over half the time, which had been a great thing at the start of the season, but he’s played better the last four weeks, allowing just 8-of-23 passing for 97 scoreless yards. Moore was part of that sample, but he saw just one target in the game they played two weeks ago. It helps to know the 49ers have allowed nine wide receiver touchdowns in the last four games, but Moore’s recent struggles can’t be overlooked. He’s a touchdown-or-bust option this week and someone who’s more on the WR5 radar with the way Witherspoon’s been playing.
Marquise Goodwin: He returned to the lineup in Week 14 but didn’t play a full complement of snaps, as he was on the field for just 24-of-72 snaps, which was one more snap than Trent Taylor, who was a healthy scratch a couple weeks ago. Goodwin caught both of his two targets for 20 yards, but that’s not going to tempt you into playing him against a Seahawks defense, who’s been consistently mediocre against the wide receiver position. They have allowed one receiver to top 90 yards in six of their last seven games, though each of those players saw at least seven targets, a number Goodwin hasn’t sniffed this season, as his most-targeted game was five times. He’s a big-play away from paying off, but he’s nothing more than a WR6 with the limited snaps.
Dante Pettis: He’s now seen at least seven targets in each of the last three games and has totaled 27 targets over the last four games. Not just that, but he’s produced on them, totaling 16 receptions for 267 yards and four touchdowns. Despite having his bye in Week 11, Pettis the No. 20 receiver since the start of Week 10. His biggest game came against these Seahawks two weeks ago when he tallied five catches for 129 yards and two touchdowns, though a lot of that production was on one 75-yard touchdown catch. He’s their top option this week, as the Seahawks and safety Bradley McDougald have shut down opposing tight ends, allowing the third-fewest points to them. He’ll see Tre Flowers the most, who just happens to be the Seahawks worst cornerback. He’s allowed 16.0 yards per reception and four touchdowns on 59 targets in coverage, which amounts to a 126.3 QB Rating. Knowing he’s seen seven targets in each of the last three games, he’s on the WR3 radar this week, though it wouldn’t be wise to expect a repeat performance.
TEs
Nick Vannett: We’ve seen a mix of Vannett and Ed Dickson out there running routes for the Seahawks the last two weeks, though neither have amounted to much. Vannett has totaled two catches for 16 yards on 18 routes, while Dickson has totaled just one catch for four yards on 21 routes. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 9 to find the last time either of them totaled more than two targets, so it’s not like you’re playing them. On top of that, the 49ers have allowed just 40.3 yards per game to tight ends, which ranks as the seventh-fewest in the league. Vannett is nothing more than a touchdown-dependent low-end TE2.
George Kittle: After piling up seven catches for 210 yards and a touchdown in the first half against the Broncos, Kittle didn’t have another catch the remainder of the game. What does it matter? Well he was five yards off the record for yardage. That’s unlikely to happen again, especially against a Seahawks team that’s allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Kittle saw more than enough targets the last time they played (9) and totaled a respectable 6/70/0, though Mullens threw the ball 48 times in that game. That was the biggest performance of the year against the Seahawks, as no other tight end has totaled more than 54 yards. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest receptions (46), second-fewest yards (448), and fourth-fewest touchdowns (3). While nobody is going to suggest you bench Kittle in season-long leagues (you play him every week), this isn’t a week to target him heavily in DFS formats.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 52.0
Line: NE by 1.0
QBs
Tom Brady: He had what might have been his best game of the year last week and the Patriots lost. Now going on the road to Pittsburgh should be quite the test, as they’re coming off an embarrassing loss to the Raiders. The Steelers have had to pick their poison all year, as they’ve either been dominated by the pass and shut-down the run, or they get dominated by the run and shut-down the pass. After starting out the year allowing 3-of-4 quarterbacks to throw for 320-plus yards, the Steelers had held six of the next seven quarterbacks to less than 230 yards. Over the last two weeks, they’ve seemingly regressed and have allowed Derek Carr and Philip Rivers combine for 51-of-70 passing for 621 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. The Patriots will likely need to get their ground-game going on the road to slow down the potent Steelers offense, which could limit Brady’s pass attempts, though there’s also a chance that this game is a shootout between Brady and Roethlisberger. Knowing how Jekyll and Hyde the Steelers defense has been (six quarterbacks over 20 fantasy points, five of them with 15 or less), it’s not a clear-cut situation, but there’s no way Brady will walk into this matchup and completely disappear. He should be considered a low-end QB1 who has a solid floor.
Ben Roethlisberger: So, he’s apparently got some sort of rib injury that he took pain killers to play through last week. If there’s one thing we know about Roethlisberger, it’s that he loves the drama and soaking up the attention. Hey, Brett Favre was the same way and that worked out pretty well for him. My opinion is that Roethlisberger is fine and will play in this game, though you’ll want to stay posted for updates here on Saturday morning. The Patriots aren’t a defense to run from, especially on the road, as they’ve allowed 5-of-7 quarterbacks to finish as top-14 options with the only exceptions being Derek Anderson and Josh McCown. On four separate occasions they’ve allowed three or more passing touchdowns, so the upside is there as well. Roethlisberger played at home against a similar defense last year and totaled 281 yards and two touchdowns in a 24-27 loss to them. The lack of run-game should force the Steelers to throw more than they typically would, which may mean more turnovers, but Roethlisberger would rack-up the yardage to make up for that. He should be considered a middling QB1 this week.
RBs
Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead: It was a week to forget for the Patriots run-game last week, as they couldn’t get much going against the Dolphins. After starting out the year as one of the more dominant run-defenses while allowing just 66.8 rushing yards per game on 3.41 yards per carry in the first five games, they’ve struggled a bit since then and have now allowed a rushing touchdown in six straight games. They were able to hold the Raiders running backs to just 56 yards on 24 carries, but it’s still the Raiders. The Steelers will have enough issues trying to slow down Brady and the pass-attack this week, that it should allow Michel to operate with some room. The Steelers have allowed just two running backs to sneak into the top-10 against them, though both performances came in the last month (Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette). Michel should be played as a high-end RB2 and hopefully we don’t ever hear the name James Develin and the word ‘touchdown’ in the same sentence. As for White, the Steelers have done a great job limiting the receiving work to running backs, as they’ve allowed the second-fewest catches (49) and yards (354) in the league. They haven’t been targeted much, but that could be for a reason with their zone-heavy defense. White always comes with two touchdown upside, but this matchup isn’t a great one, leaving him in the high-end RB3 conversation. Burkhead has totaled 14 touches since returning two weeks ago, so he’s involved, but not enough to be a surefire fantasy starter. If you’re searching the waiver wire for a running back who’s no sure thing but comes with upside, Burkhead is that guy. If we’ve seen Develin score three touchdowns the last two weeks, what makes you think Burkhead can’t be that guy this week? He should be considered an upside RB4.
James Conner and Jaylen Samuels: There have been six teams who’ve run the ball at least 20 times against the Patriots. In those games, they have allowed 130.3 yards per game with five rushing touchdowns. In the seven games where teams didn’t hit the 20-carry mark, they have allowed 64.6 rushing yards per game and one rushing touchdown. The Steelers have hit that mark in just 6-of-13 games this year, which isn’t a great sign, especially when we know that Conner may not even play, and if he does, do we know if he’ll get a full workload? Samuels was able to total just 28 yards on 11 carries against a Raiders team that had allowed over 5.0 yards per carry coming into that game. He did tack-on seven catches for 64 yards, which is what you’ll be looking for against the Patriots. They’ve allowed 80 receptions (6th-most), 710 yards (6th-most), and four receiving touchdowns (6th-most) to running backs this year. If Conner sits again, Samuels can be played as a middling RB2. If Conner plays, he’s more of a risk/reward RB3/4 option who comes with some risk, but also some upside. As for Conner, he should be considered a high-end RB2 if he’s available for this game, though he would come with more risk than usual trying to play two weeks after suffering an ankle sprain. Update: Conner returned to a limited practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. While that sounds like progress (it is), he’s still considered somewhat of a long-shot to play.
WRs
Josh Gordon: He shot back up to his normal snap counts last week, which is great because it seemed to be him losing snaps to Burkhead in Week 13. The Steelers are likely to have Joe Haden shadow Gordon around the field, which isn’t a great thing considering he’s by far their top cornerback. On 73 targets in coverage, he’s allowed 43 receptions for 461 yards and three touchdowns. Keep in mind that’s while covering the opposing team’s top receiver in most games. While he hasn’t played anyone of significance as of late, the last few times he did, he held A.J. Green to 7/85/0 on 12 targets and Julio Jones to 5/62/0 on nine targets. Gordon has now totaled at least 70 yards and/or a touchdown in each of his last five games, so he remains on the low-end WR2 radar, but it’s a tough matchup with Haden.
Julian Edelman: While Gordon deals with Joe Haden, Edelman has what may be the best matchup on the field among wide receivers. While Mike Hilton is a fine player, the Steelers defensive scheme over the middle of the field has been abused. We saw Seth Roberts rack-up five catches for 75 yards last week, Keenan Allen destroy them for 14 catches, 148 yards, and a touchdown the prior week, and Emmanuel Sanders posted seven catches for 86 yards and a touchdown the week before that. The Steelers had linebackers matched-up with Allen for parts of that game, which makes no sense. Coming off his biggest fantasy game of the year where he posted 9/86/1, Edelman makes for a solid WR2 start once again this week.
Antonio Brown: If there’s one thing we know about Bill Belichick, it’s that he likes to take away the opposing No. 1 receiver. The question is – which one does he view as a bigger threat? Smith-Schuster or Brown? It’s Brown, but there’s a movement happening in the Steelers offense where you cannot treat Smith-Schuster as a No. 2 receiver. The Patriots are likely to stick Stefon Gilmore on Brown and have him shadowed all game, while Smith-Schuster gets Jason McCourty with bracket coverage to help limit his potential. The issue with this plan is that Brown can beat any cornerback in one-on-one coverage. This is no shot at Gilmore, but he’s not better than Jalen Ramsey, a cornerback who surrendered 5/117/1 to Brown just three weeks ago. We also saw Gilmore have a lapse in his shutdown ways a few weeks back against Corey Davis when he allowed him 7/125/1. You should keep Brown in your WR1 slot and expect results.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: As mentioned in the Brown notes, Smith-Schuster is likely going to see Jason McCourty in coverage with a lot of bracket coverage with safeties over the top. This is what they did with Adam Thielen just a few weeks ago when he totaled just five catches for 28 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. The Vikings offense isn’t operating nearly as smooth as the Steelers offense is, so you don’t want to take that performance to heart with Smith-Schuster, who has now totaled at least 90 yards in four of his last five games. In fact, he’s just 10.6 PPR points behind Brown on the season. You’re playing him as a high-end WR2 this week, but the Patriots could choose to make life hard on him.
TEs
Rob Gronkowski: He’s back. Gronkowski looked fantastic last week, hauling in all eight of his targets for 107 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins. Now he’ll head into a matchup with the Steelers, who he’s played six times in his career (Mike Tomlin was the head coach in all meetings). The results of those games (most recent first): 9/168/0, 4/93/1, 5/94/3, 9/143/1, 7/94/0, 5/72/3. For those who would like a clearer picture, he’s averaged 6.5 receptions for 110.7 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game. The Steelers have been a defense to attack with tight ends this year, as they’ve allowed eight top-15 performances, including a 7-catch, 109-yard, two-touchdown game to Travis Kelce. You should be playing Gronk as an elite TE1 in this game.
Vance McDonald: It’s now been seven straight weeks where McDonald has finished with less than 50 yards and that’s despite averaging 35 targets in those games (five per game). It was a great matchup against the Raiders last week and he did catch all four of his targets for 37 yards, but we need the Steelers to involve him a bit more if we want anything near top-12 production. There have been eight different tight ends to post 57 yards and/or a touchdown against the Patriots this year, which explains why they allow the 12th-most points to tight ends. With so much attention directed at Brown and Smith-Schuster, it’s possible that McDonald surprises and becomes the X-factor in this game. He should be considered a high-end TE2 who may not be a sure thing, but the matchup could make him a top-six play at the position.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
Total: 54.0
Line: LAR by 9.0
QBs
Carson Wentz: This was something I mentioned in last week’s edition of The Primer, but the Rams have been a completely different defense with and without cornerback Aqib Talib. In the five games with him, the Rams defense has allowed 194.8 passing yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. In the eight games without him, they allowed 299.8 passing yards and 2.9 touchdowns per game. This is concerning for Wentz, who’s failed to throw for more than 236 yards in three of the last four games. He’s looked better the last two weeks, as it seemed he stopped forcing the ball to Tate in Week 14 and rather took what the defense gave him. In reality, his numbers have been really solid outside of the one game against the Saints. He’s still topped 18 fantasy points in 9-of-11 games this year, which is typically good enough for a high-end QB2 performance. The Rams are a different defense with Talib, so you don’t want to go expecting the QB1 performance, but the Rams are going to put up points on the Eagles defense, which will force Wentz to try and go toe-to-toe with Goff. He should be considered a low-end QB1 who has more upside than most realize. Update: Wentz has reportedly been dealing with back spasms and may be shut-down for the remainder of the season. If Nick Foles steps in, you should feel free to avoid the situation all together. They are not expecting Wentz to play, though he is traveling with the team.
Jared Goff: Most used the Bears defense as the reason Goff struggled on Sunday night (they were very good), but most don’t realize he wasn’t very good the week before that, either. Over the last two weeks combined, he’s completed just 37-of-77 passes (48.1 percent) for 387 yards (5.0 yards per attempt) with one touchdown and five interceptions. What could be the remedy to his struggles? The Eagles defense. Over the last four weeks, they’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, second-most points to running backs, third-most points to wide receivers, and 15th-most points to tight ends. In that time, they’ve played Drew Brees (okay, he’s good), Eli Manning, Mark Sanchez/Colt McCoy, and Dak Prescott. To know they’ve allowed top-10 numbers in those four matchups should get you excited. The Rams will be back at home in a statement game after they just lost in embarrassing fashion to the Bears. With the lack of cornerback depth, the Rams should be able to pick their battles in this one, making Goff a rock-solid QB1.
RBs
Josh Adams and Darren Sproles: With Corey Clement out of the mix, we’re primarily looking at an Adams/Sproles split this week. The Rams have allowed at least 100 rushing yards to five of their last six opponents with the only exception being the Chiefs, who ran the ball just 14 times in the 54-51 bonanza in Week 11. We saw Jordan Howard post his first 100-yard game of the season against them last week, as the Rams have now allowed 4.93 yards per carry on the season, the fifth-highest mark behind only the Chiefs, Lions, Bengals, and Raiders. This bodes well for Adams, though the issue is if the Eagles fall behind, it’s going to be a lot of Sproles in passing situations, as Adams has seen just one target over the last three weeks combined. It’s possible that the Eagles use Adams in a way to keep Goff and the Rams offense off the field with how effective he’s been carrying the ball. There’s certainly risk of the Rams jumping out to an early lead, but Adams has the looks of someone who belongs in the RB2 range. Sproles has a bit tougher matchup, as the Rams have held running backs to five or less receptions and 41 yards or less in each of their last six games. Sproles is more of an RB4, though he may see more touches with Clement out.
Todd Gurley: We used to hear about the Eagles and think, “oh crap,” but that’s not the case anymore. They’ve now allowed five straight opponents to rush for at least 100 yards, while allowing eight running back touchdowns in those games. Gurley has yet to have back-to-back bad games this year. As a matter of fact, his performance against the Bears last week was the first game you can classify as “bad” as he’s finished with al least 94 yards and/or a touchdown in every other game. The Eagles have allowed a top-five running back performance in four of their last five games. You’re starting Gurley and expecting massive results.
WRs
Alshon Jeffery: After scoring his first touchdown since Week 7, his reward will be to play against a duo of Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. Keep in mind that Jeffery still hasn’t topped 50 yards since Week 7, either. Peters was pretty terrible with Talib out of the lineup, as they asked him to play shadow man-coverage, something he hadn’t done throughout his career, but now with Talib back, he’s able to play his one side in coverage. In the games Talib’s on the field, Peters has allowed 11-of-20 passing for 118 yards and one touchdown. In the games Talib wasn’t, Peters allowed 31-of-40 passing for 519 yards and five touchdowns. Needless to say, this isn’t a plus-matchup for Jeffery, though he should see eight-plus targets. Because of that, he’s on the WR3 radar but comes with more risk than most think, especially if Foles starts.
Golden Tate: After seeing 23 targets the three prior weeks, Tate saw just three of Wentz’s 32 targets last week, netting just one catch for seven yards. That’s definitely worrisome considering the matchup with the Rams isn’t a good one. Nickell Robey-Coleman has been their most consistent cornerback this year, allowing just a 61.2 percent catch-rate (which is phenomenal for a slot cornerback), 7.9 yards per reception, and three touchdowns on 49 targets. Playing just 20 snaps last week was a surprise, so it’s tough to say he’s anything more than a middling WR4 in a tough matchup.
Brandin Cooks: After seeing at least eight targets in eight of his first 10 games with the Rams, Cooks has seen just 13 targets over the last two weeks combined. The loss of Cooper Kupp is clearly bigger than anyone anticipated. In this matchup, however, Cooks needs to be in lineups as a WR1 against an Eagles secondary that’s been straight up dominated the last four weeks. They’ll have De’Vante Bausby and Rasul Douglas on him most of the game, two cornerbacks who have combined to allow 41-of-56 passing for 599 yards and three touchdowns. That’s an extremely-high 14.6 yards per reception, so expect the Rams to take full advantage of those weaknesses.
Robert Woods: If there’s been one Eagles cornerback who’s played well in a bad situation, it’s Cre’Von LeBlanc, who’s allowed a 57.9 percent catch-rate with 183 yards and a touchdown on 19 targets. He’s not starting-caliber, so Woods should still be able to post respectable numbers against him. Since Cooper Kupp went down with his season-ending injury, Woods has totaled 32 targets in three games, netting just 16 receptions for 200 yards, though he has scored twice in that span. He’s now totaled at least 61 yards in each of his last 12 games, providing a floor that no other receiver has. He should be considered a high-end WR2 for this game.
Josh Reynolds: After the big game against the Chiefs, Reynolds has gone back to mediocrity, totaling just five catches for 55 scoreless yards over the last two weeks, though he has seen 12 targets. He’s got a great matchup this week and should be able to be much more efficient with them, as his primary cornerback in coverage is De’Vante Bausby after Sidney Jones went down with another injury last week. Bausby has allowed 12-of-14 targets to be completed in his coverage for 219 yards and a touchdown since joining the team on the field in Week 11. While Cooks has just as good of a matchup, Reynolds has a good enough matchup that he should be considered a low-end WR3/upside WR4 if Goff can get back on track.
TEs
Zach Ertz: You obviously play Ertz every week, but it’s even better when he has a matchup with a team who’s already allowed four different tight ends to rack up 90-plus yards against them. I consider 15-plus PPR points an ‘elite’ performance out of a tight end and the Rams have allowed Travis Kelce, Jared Cook, George Kittle, and Ben Watson elite performances this year. With tougher matchups for the wide receivers, it makes sense for Ertz to see 10-plus targets this game en route to an elite TE1 performance.
Gerald Everett: It only took 14 weeks, but Everett finally out-snapped Tyler Higbee last week. Everett has now seen 14 targets over the last three games, which puts him on the streaming radar each week. The issue this week is that the Eagles have been dominant against tight ends, allowing just 7.28 yards per target and 10.5 yards per reception. They’ve also held opposing tight ends to just two touchdowns all season, which ranks as the third-best mark in the league. They’ve allowed just two top-12 performers against them this season, and one of them required a 75-yard catch-and-run touchdown from O.J. Howard. Everett has a growing role, but this matchup doesn’t scream anything more than TE2 numbers.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Total: 51.5
Line: NO by 6.5
QBs
Drew Brees: It’s now back-to-back weeks where Brees has failed to throw for more than 201 yards or one touchdown, as he’s finished outside the top-15 quarterbacks in each of those games. The Panthers have been a very giving team to quarterbacks this season, as they’ve allowed multiple touchdown passes in 10 of their last 12 games. The only exceptions were Matthew Stafford in Week 11 (he hasn’t thrown multiple touchdowns since Week 10) and Baker Mayfield last week, who threw the ball just 22 times, but still managed to throw for 238 yards and a touchdown. Brees has not played them this year, but he played a very similar defense last year in Carolina and completed 22-of-29 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns. They’ve now allowed three of the last five quarterbacks they’ve played to average at least 10.8 yards per attempt. The Panthers have also not allowed a single team to rush for more than 98 yards over the last eight games and have held 12-of-14 teams under that mark all season, so we could see Brees unleashed a bit here. Projected to score 29 points is never a bad thing, either. Brees should be played as a rock-solid QB1 who comes with a high-floor.
Cam Newton: If Newton’s shoulder is bothering him as much as we think it is, then why have the Panthers had him pass the ball 83 times over the last two weeks? It just doesn’t make sense unless they know something that we don’t. The Saints defense has been coming on as of late and have held four of the last five quarterbacks they’ve played to 250 yards or less and they haven’t allowed more than two passing touchdowns in any of them. We have seen Jameis Winston rush for 47 yards, Dak Prescott rush for 22 yards, Jeff Driskel rush for 35 yards and a touchdown, and Ryan Fitzpatrick run for 36 yards and a touchdown, so that’s the area of Newton’s game they need to utilize. He’s rushed for 56 yards over the last two weeks, so it’s not as if his shoulder hurts so much that they are limiting him on the ground. The Saints allow just 3.20 yards per carry to running backs, so if the Panthers want to end their five-game skid, Newton is the key. He should be considered a low-end QB1 who comes with more risk than most had initially anticipated with this matchup.
RBs
Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: The duo hasn’t quite been the same over the last three weeks, as neither of them have topped 100 yards in any game and they’ve combined to score one touchdown. It’s not a great time for them to be running into the Panthers, because they have held 11-of-13 teams of running backs to less than 100 rushing yards. They’ve yet to allow multiple rushing touchdowns in a game, and there hasn’t been a single running back who’s scored both a rushing and receiving touchdown. Saquon Barkley is the only player to have multiple touchdowns against them, though both were receiving. It’s also worth noting that there’s been no running back who’s totaled 18 carries against them, which makes sense because they face an average of just 18.8 carries per game. They’ve allowed 4.0 yards per carry, so it’s not as if they absolutely can’t be run-on, but when their opponents are totaling just 60.0 plays per game, it limits the touches to go around. The 23.1 touches per game that running backs average against them ranks as the second-lowest to only the Saints. Kamara should be the one who presents more value here because of his versatility but saying he’s more than a middling RB1 would be wrong. As for Ingram, he’s more of a middling to low-end RB2 in this matchup, though it wouldn’t be shocking to see their run-game get back on track and have them prove me wrong. In the last matchup between these two teams (Week 13 of last year), Kamara posted 126 total yards and two touchdowns, while Ingram had 122 total yards and one touchdown.
Christian McCaffrey: The hottest running back in the league meets the league’s top run-defense in Week 15. Through 13 games, the Saints run-defense has been a brick wall, allowing just 3.20 yards per carry, which is the best in the league. The 689 yards they’ve allowed on the ground is 180 yards less than the next closest team (Texans). Running backs also average a league-low 21.9 touches per game against the Saints, though that’s not a massive concern for McCaffrey who has totaled 107 of the Panthers last 114 touches, a ridiculous 93.9 percent. The volume hasn’t been there through the air to running backs, but from an efficiency standpoint, the Saints allow 1.70 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the seventh-most. This matchup is concerning for a lot of running backs, but knowing the role McCaffrey has and his flexibility in the passing-game, he’s locked in as an RB1, though you don’t need to be aggressive with him in DFS this week.
WRs
Michael Thomas: After two 100-plus yard games in the first three weeks, Thomas has hit that mark just once in the last 10 games. It’s now been three weeks since he found the end zone, but a trip to Carolina may solve that. They’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including 15 touchdowns through 13 games. James Bradberry couldn’t do much to contain Thomas last year, as he racked up 7/87/1 in the first meeting and then 5/70/1 in the second one. This year hasn’t been Bradberry’s best year, either, as he’s allowed a 107.5 QB Rating in his coverage. We’ve seen six wide receivers eclipse the 100-yard mark against the Panthers this year. Is Thomas next on that list? He should be played as a high-end WR1.
Tre’Quan Smith: After two straight games without a catch, you just know Smith is going to pop back up on the fantasy radar at the worst time, right? You cannot justifiably play someone who’s seen one or less targets in three of their last four games, even if the matchup isn’t bad against fellow rookie Donte Jackson. If you feel the need to play Smith, do it in the DFS spectrum.
D.J. Moore: Just when you feel great about Moore as the No. 1 receiver on the Panthers, he has to start competing with Samuel for targets in the offense. Over the last two weeks, Samuel has totaled 19 targets while Moore has 16, so both are very respectable and usable for fantasy purposes. Moore hasn’t seen less than eight targets since back in Week 10, though it’ll be interesting to see how the Saints handle him. If Marshon Lattimore shadows, it would be him. Since his Week 1 slip-up, Lattimore has allowed just one touchdown on 58 targets in coverage and an 86.9 QB Rating. Moore does travel into the slot quite a bit, too, so they could just choose to play sides this game. But know this – of the passing production the Saints allow, 61.8 percent of the PPR production goes to wide receivers, which is the highest mark in the league. There’s some risk with Lattimore, but Moore should be considered a high-end WR3 with his current role.
Curtis Samuel: As mentioned in the Moore notes, Samuel has 19 targets over the last two weeks, which leads the team. He’s been a full-time player the last three weeks and the Panthers haven’t let the return of Devin Funchess change that. Samuel will likely see Eli Apple more than Moore, which is a good thing. He’s been targeted 56 times since joining the Saints and has allowed a 62.5 percent catch-rate, 473 yards, and two touchdowns in his coverage. In a game where the Panthers will have a hard time moving the ball on the ground, they may get creative with Samuel and it could lead to a big play or two. Knowing he’s on par with Moore for targets right now, Samuel belongs in the WR3 conversation this week.
Devin Funchess: Since returning the last two weeks, Funchess has fallen out of favor and is now the team’s No. 4 receiver behind Moore, Samuel, and Jarius Wright. He’s seen just six targets the last two weeks, netting one catch for 10 yards. While you should still expect Funchess to be involved in the red zone, you can’t trust a wide receiver who plays less than 50 percent of the snaps, especially when his quarterback has been struggling as of late.
TEs
Dan Arnold: The Saints had Arnold inactive last week, likely due to the weather conditions and that they game-planned to run the ball a lot. Arnold is not one to block very often. If he’s active this week (I expect him to be), he should resume his role as the primary pass-catcher for Brees. The reason you should contemplate him is due to the matchup, as the Panthers have been the third-worst defense against tight ends this year, as they’ve allowed 8.12 yards per target, a 74.5 percent completion-rate, and a touchdown every 10.9 targets. They’ve allowed nine different tight ends to post top-15 numbers against them. It’s tough to play someone who was a healthy scratch last week, but if you check the vital signs of most routes run, potent offense, and a good matchup, he’s definitely someone who’s in the streaming conversation.
Ian Thomas: After posting 11 catches for 123 yards over the last two weeks, Thomas is getting a lot of attention in fantasy leagues. Unfortunately, it’s likely his new owners will regret sticking him in their lineups. Most will say that the Saints just allowed two touchdowns to Cameron Brate and my response would be… he had two catches for 12 yards. Thomas has still yet to score a touchdown this year. Despite the touchdowns to Brate last week, the Saints are still the fourth-toughest defense for tight ends, as they’ve still yet to allow more than five receptions or 54 yards to any of them. Those two touchdowns to Brate were more than they’d allowed the entire season (1) up to that point. While Thomas is worth thinking about with his recent target share, he’s not a great start this week.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 53.5
Line: KC by 3.0
QBs
Philip Rivers: Go figure… the first time all year Rivers doesn’t throw for multiple touchdown passes was against the Bengals, without Melvin Gordon active. What are the odds? You’ll have to get over it quickly because the Chiefs are a team who’s delivered some big fantasy games to quarterbacks. There’s been just three quarterbacks who’ve failed to score at least 17 fantasy points against them, and those quarterbacks were Josh Rosen, Andy Dalton, and Case Keenum, all quarterbacks who rarely hit that number to begin with. There’s been just three games all season where Rivers has failed to hit that mark. Because of the Chiefs efficiency on offense, their opponents average almost 70 plays per game, which ranks as the second-most in the league. Because of that, they’ve faced a league-high 40.9 pass attempts per game. While the efficiency numbers aren’t over the top, we’ve seen eight top-12 quarterbacks against them. With a total of 56.5 points and an implied team total of just under 27 points, Rivers should be a plug-and-play QB1 who tagged this defense for 424/3 in their first matchup this year, though playing in Kansas City has been an issue for Rivers, as you’d have to go all the way back to 2013 to find the last time he tagged them for more than one touchdown pass. He comes with some risk but it’s unlikely you can find 12 better options this week.
Patrick Mahomes: He does everything a quarterback is not supposed to do… he throws across his body, throws off his back foot, throws with his left hand, throws no-look passes, and he would rather throw the ball up for grabs than take a sack. But here’s the thing – it’s worked. While his long-term outlook needs some refining, you don’t take the ball away from a quarterback who’s playing the way he is. The Chargers are going to be another tough matchup for him, as they’ve not allowed a quarterback to throw more than two touchdowns since way back in Week 3. That was also the last time they allowed a quarterback to finish better than the QB10 on the week. But again, the Ravens had been the fourth-toughest matchup for quarterbacks coming into Week 14, yet Mahomes was able to rack-up over 370 yards and two touchdowns. Since Week 3, the Chargers have allowed just 6.6 yards per attempt and 11 passing touchdowns in 10 games while intercepting nine passes. Mahomes needs to be in lineups (obviously), but he’s unlikely to finish as a top-three quarterback this week.
RBs
Justin Jackson: It appears as if we’re getting Jackson as the starter on Thursday night. Many think of him as a bruiser who’s a 1-2 down back, but he’s more than that, according to his resume at Northwestern. He not only toted the ball 1,142 times over his four years there, but he also caught 122 passes for 858 yards and a touchdown. With the Chargers, he’s caught all five of his targets for 61 yards. Knowing how often Rivers targets his running backs, Jackson should be a dual-threat this week. This is important because the Chiefs have allowed a league-high 204.1 PPR points through the air to running backs. That amounts to 15.7 PPR points through the air alone each week. You now don’t question why they’ve allowed a league-high 20 running backs to finish with 12 or more PPR points. It’s not just through the air, either, as they’ve allowed a league-high 5.12 yards per carry. Jackson is set-up very nicely and should be considered a high-end RB2 who’s oozing with RB1 potential.
Damien Williams and Charcandrick West: The fact that West was a healthy scratch last week worries me a bit about the potential workload for Williams. Some will say it was because he had just a few days with the team, but he knows the team and the offense extremely well, so unless he’s out of shape, he may have been signed in case of a Spencer Ware injury. West has 10 games under his belt with 13 or more carries, while Williams’ career-high is 11 carries way back in 2014, his rookie year. It’s very possible that West walks into the Hunt/Ware role while Williams resumes his role that’s netted 20 touches over the last two weeks. The Chargers have struggled a bit against the run as of late, as the injuries have started to pile up. They’re without defensive tackle Corey Liuget and linebacker Denzel Perryman, and it’s led to six rushing touchdowns over their last four games. There’s been just one game over their last seven games where they’ve held the opposing team of running backs below 27.1 PPR points, and that was the Cardinals, who don’t count. There’s production to be found and it wouldn’t shock me if West is the one who finishes with the most points. Williams has the safer role with potential upside, so he should be considered a high-end RB3 while West is more of a middling RB3 who comes with more upside than most in that territory.
WRs
Keenan Allen: Most don’t realize it, but the Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per target this year. The issue is that they’ve faced a league-high 315 wide receiver targets (24.2 per game). They’ve played some very mediocre options over the last two weeks (Raiders, Ravens), yet allowed veteran Jordy Nelson 10 catches for 97 yards. Allen will primarily see Kendall Fuller in the slot, a cornerback who’s been a bit hit-or-miss this year, but maybe his worst game of the year came against Allen back in Week 1 when Allen posted eight catches for 108 yards and a touchdown. Slot-heavy receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster, Robert Woods, and Julian Edelman were also able to score in their matchups with the Chiefs. With the run-game a bit dinged-up and maybe limited in this game, we should see potentially 10-plus of targets for Allen, making him a middling to low-end WR1 this week.
Mike Williams: He continues to play limited snaps behind both Allen and Tyrell Williams, but this isn’t a week to expect that to continue. It’s likely the Chargers are forced to run three wide receiver sets a lot more often in order to keep pace with the Chiefs offense. Opposing wide receivers average a league-high 24.2 targets per game against the Chiefs, but oddly enough, they’ve allowed just 11 wide receiver touchdowns, which ranks as the seventh-fewest in the league. He’ll match-up with Steven Nelson the most often, who has allowed touchdowns in back-to-back games after allowing just one in the first 11 games. He’s not a particularly big cornerback at 5-foot-11 and 194 pounds, so it’ll be interesting to see if it’s a matchup the Chargers target. We’ve only seen Williams targeted more than four times once since Week 3, so he’s a risky play in the fantasy playoffs, though his touchdown upside boosts him up to the WR4 territory this week, especially when you consider the number of targets that are likely to go around. The only players with more receiving touchdowns than him are Davante Adams, Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, Michael Thomas, and Calvin Ridley.
Tyrell Williams: He’s out there as a full-time player, though he hasn’t produced since his back-to-back 118-yard games back in Weeks 6-7. He’s totaled just 14 yards in each of the last two games and will now go into a matchup with Orlando Scandrick, who’s been the Chiefs best cornerback in coverage this year. He’s allowed just a 51 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year, which is among the best of full-time cornerbacks. On top of that, he’s allowed just 10.2 yards per reception. On the perimeter, that’s elite-tier, as is his 5.2 yards per target in coverage. Williams does move around quite a bit, so he won’t only see Scandrick, though it is his primary matchup. There’s no way you can play Williams and be confident after his recent performances. The sheer number of attempts and targets to go around is appealing, but he’s nothing more than a dart-throw WR5.
Tyreek Hill: It appears Hill will be able to play on Thursday night after telling NBC Sports’ Peter King that his foot injury was “bad.” He was hobbling around the field against the Ravens but still managed to post 8/139/0 on the Ravens, who for some reason had linebacker C.J. Mosley covering Hill on the long fourth-down completion to extend the game. Hill completely terrorized the Chargers secondary in Week 1 this year when he tagged them for 173 total yards and two touchdowns. That was prior to them getting Joey Bosa back and Hayward started playing at a Pro Bowl level again. But even going back to their matchups last year, Hill totaled 5/88/1 and 5/77/1 against the Chargers. If he’s healthy, man-coverage simply doesn’t work with him. We don’t know a lot about his health, but if he’s playing, you’re playing him, even if it’s as a low-end WR1.
Kelvin Benjamin: It sounds like Benjamin is going to have a limited role in the offense, so it’d be wise to track his snaps before even thinking about trusting him in the fantasy playoffs. It’s very possible he plays behind Demarcus Robinson.
Chris Conley: With Sammy Watkins out of the lineup, you’d think that Conley would be racking up the receptions and yardage, but that hasn’t been the case. He’s topped 25 yards just once this season and has just one game with more than three receptions since Week 4. With Hill hobbled, Watkins out, and Benjamin still learning the playbook, it’s possible for Conley to see six-plus targets in this matchup. He’ll get Michael Davis in coverage most of the game, a former undrafted free agent from last year who’s allowed 25-of-37 passing for 278 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. Those aren’t great numbers, but they also aren’t numbers to avoid. If Hill’s more hurt than they’re letting on, Conley would be the primary beneficiary. Consider him a high-end WR4 with upside.
TEs
Antonio Gates: After a brief interruption in Week 11, we’re back to our normally scheduled programming with Gates. Outside of his 80-yard, one-touchdown performance in that Week 11 game, Gates hasn’t been able to top 27 yards this season. The Chiefs have been an appealing matchup for tight ends, as they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position. The 923 yards and eight touchdowns they’ve allowed both rank fourth in the league, though they may get a boost for this game. Safety Eric Berry is set to return to the lineup for the first time since Week 1 of last season, and while we have no clue if he’ll be the same player he once was (highly unlikely at this point), he used to be one of the shutdown safeties in the league. With Gates limited to a max of about 25 snaps, his risk is greater than his reward. Even if Berry isn’t the same, we all know that Gates isn’t, either. You can find a better streaming option this week.
Travis Kelce: You know how there are just certain teams who have a player’s number? Well, the Chargers have been that team for Kelce. Not only are they a top-eight team against tight ends, but they’ve held him to 1/6/0, 6/46/0, 1/1/0, and 1/8/0 the last four times they’ve played. Oddly enough, the Chargers pass-defense has gotten better over that time with the addition of Derwin James. There’s been just one tight end to top 55 yards against the Chargers this year and it was George Kittle, who totaled 6/125/1, though most production came on an 82-yard touchdown catch-and-run. They’re a legitimate defense against tight ends and they’ve slowed Kelce in the past, but with Watkins out and Hill potentially ailing, maybe he overcomes those things with more targets. You’re playing him every week in season-long leagues, but understand that this matchup may not suit him well.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
