ADP Risers & Fallers in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues (2019 Fantasy Football)

by Josh Shepardson | @BChad50 | Featured Writer
Jul 17, 2019

How much does Melvin Gordon’s holdout affect the stock of Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson?

This month’s check-in on DRAFT best ball ADP data provides some changes in the top-10 quarterbacks, including a new QB2. Per usual, there’s significant movement up and down the draft board at running back and receiver, and there’s a new RB2 again. Things are rounded out by a handful of movers and shakers at tight end, and one tight end shot up from TE20 to TE12, seeing an ADP change of greater than 25 picks.

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Quarterback

Risers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12 6/15 7/14
Deshaun Watson (HOU) QB4 (71.4) QB4 (71.1) QB4 (70.6) QB2 (63.5)
Kyler Murray (ARI) QB17 (127.4) QB11 (109.9) QB8 (97.2) QB7 (92)
Carson Wentz (PHI) QB12 (114.3) QB12 (113.9) QB10 (102.5) QB8 (96.8)
Cam Newton (CAR) QB11 (110) QB13 (114.4) QB13 (116.8) T-QB10 (110.2)
Dak Prescott (DAL) QB16 (126.3) QB17 (131.2) QB15 (127.5) QB14 (121.1)

 
Fallers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12 6/15 7/14
Andrew Luck (IND) QB2 (60.4) QB2 (61.3) QB2 (63.2) QB3 (66.3)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB3 (65.3) QB3 (68.5) QB3 (70.3) QB4 (72.2)
Drew Brees (NO) QB6 (89) QB7 (90.3) QB7 (97) QB9 (103.3)
Russell Wilson (SEA) QB8 (94.8) QB8 (94.5) QB9 (101.8) T-QB10 (110.2)
Sam Darnold (NYJ) QB23 (153.7) QB23 (155.6) QB23 (165.2) QB24 (171.6)

 
Watson had remained stagnant at QB4 within his position group, but as you can see looking at his ADP movement and comparing it to that of Luck and Rodgers, this change shouldn’t come as a surprise. Watson was the only member of the trio whose ADP was dropping while the other two had an ADP increase with each check-in. Murray fever has afflicted the fantasy-gaming community, and he moves up another spot. Wentz joined him in moving past Brees, who’s falling, at quarterback. Newton and Wilson are both tied in ADP at QB10, with Newton’s ADP on the rise and Wilson’s on the fall.

Prescott’s ascension to QB14 hasn’t been a linear rise up the quarterback ladder, but this is the second time he’s risen since sitting at QB17 on May 12. After standing pat at QB23 each of the last three times I reviewed ADP data, Darnold slipped to QB24. I’ve repeatedly mentioned I love him as a value option this year, and his slide in ADP makes him all the more appealing.

Running Back

Risers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12 6/15 7/14
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) RB2 (2) RB2 (2.1) RB3 (3.2) RB2 (2.2)
Dalvin Cook (MIN) RB11 (16.7) RB11 (16.9) RB11 (18.3) RB10 (17.3)
Damien Williams (KC) RB17 (32.5) RB17 (30.4) RB13 (21) RB12 (19)
Leonard Fournette (JAC) RB14 (28.6) RB15 (28.6) RB17 (31.5) RB15 (29.6)
Tevin Coleman (SF) RB31 (70.3) RB33 (73.2) RB32 (70.5) RB29 (63.8)
Austin Ekeler/Justin Jackson (LAC) RB44 (113.7)/RB74 (215.4) RB44 (114.8)/RB74 (215.6) RB40 (105.2)/RB69 (210.4) RB38 (96.6)/RB63 (194.3)
Damien Harris (NE) RB58 (174.8) RB55 (169.1) RB49 (136.3) RB41 (109.3)
D’Onta Foreman (HOU) RB48 (135) RB46 (128.1) RB46 (123.9) RB42 (112.5)
Chase Edmonds (ARI) RB78 (216.1) RB72 (214.5) RB66 (207.1) RB57 (172)

 
Zeke returns to a familiar spot at RB2 after briefly being supplanted. Williams had already received praise from offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy earlier this offseason, but he received another vote of confidence from head coach Andy Reid’s reaffirmation that Williams is the team’s starting running back. Running backs in Reid’s offenses have traditionally posted gaudy fantasy numbers, and gamers are buying into what Bieniemy and Reid are selling them in regards to Williams being the main man in the backfield. San Francisco’s running back position is deep, but gamers are buying into Coleman leading the pack.

Melvin Gordon — who’s in the final year of his rookie contract — recently voiced a desire to come to a long-term agreement with the Chargers, but he’s also threatened to hold out and demand a trade if he doesn’t reach an agreement with the club. Both Ekeler and Jackson have seen their ADP rise, but it’s likely there’s more rising on the horizon unless Gordon receives a new deal. Harris continues to climb, but recent news on a teammate featured in the Fallers table below could slow his ADP surge going forward. Edmonds is enjoying a Kliff Kinsbury-fueled ADP rise like some soon-to-be-named teammates who have previously appeared in the Risers table in this recurring piece.

Fallers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12 6/15 7/14
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) RB4 (3.7) RB4 (3.6) RB2 (2.4) RB3 (2.6)
Todd Gurley (LAR) RB5 (5.7) RB8 (8.9) RB10 (16.6) RB11 (18.2)
Devonta Freeman (ATL) RB16 (30.2) RB13 (26) RB15 (29.5) RB18 (31.8)
Sony Michel (NE) RB13 (25.3) RB18 (30.5) RB21 (43.7) RB25 (51.5)
Darrell Henderson (LAR) RB53 (152.8) RB41 (103.4) RB29 (65.6) RB31 (71.1)
Miles Sanders (PHI) RB42 (112.9) RB30 (62.1) RB30 (68.4) RB35 (83.5)
Derrius Guice (WAS) RB25 (50.8) RB27 (55) RB33 (70.9) RB34 (79.3)
Ronald Jones (TB) RB45 (125.7) RB39 (95.8) RB36 (84.5) RB37 (91.4)
LeSean McCoy (BUF) RB39 (98.6) RB40 (102.9) RB42 (111.6) RB44 (115.4)

 
CMC slips one spot to RB3. Gurley’s slide continues, and he’s on the verge of falling out of the top-20 players off the board. Michel is the back I hinted at discussing in the section above, and he hopes to be ready by training camp after undergoing a knee scope. A healthy return for camp would go a long way toward slowing his slide and halting Harris’s ADP surge.

Speaking of ADP surges, Henderson’s finally slowed after a meteoric rise from RB53 at an ADP of 152.8 on April 20 to RB29 at an ADP of 65.6 on June 15. He’s now being selected just outside the top-70 picks, and he’s dipped a couple spots within the running back position. Guice is coming off of a lost draft-season campaign as a result of a torn ACL suffered in the preseason, and now he’s dealing with a hamstring injury.

Wide Receiver

Risers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12 6/15 7/14
Tyreek Hill (KC) WR9 (26.3) WR36 (93.6) WR27 (63.7) WR16 (40.2)
Christian Kirk (ARI) WR41 (100.6) T-WR38 (96.1) WR35 (86.9) WR30 (71.4)
Dante Pettis (SF) WR31 (79.1) WR32 (82.8) WR38 (91) WR33 (74.6)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) WR66 (186.4) WR63 (173.3) WR54 (137.8) WR41 (93)
DeSean Jackson (PHI) WR44 (105.3) WR49 (120.3) WR48 (112.9) WR45 (105.4)
Donte Moncrief (PIT) WR52 (132) WR58 (157.3) WR64 (169.5) WR48 (116.4)
Andy Isabella (ARI) WR86 (214.6) WR67 (185.1) WR61 (159.6) WR58 (152.2)
DeVante Parker (MIA) WR69 (191.6) WR76 (204.2) WR62 (165.7) WR60 (158)
Josh Gordon (NE) WR73 (203.9) WR79 (211.4) WR83 (212) WR70 (186.8)

 
Hill’s off-field saga took another turn. You can read details about that here, and Hill skyrocketing up the receiver pecking order indicates gamers believe he’ll avoid a suspension or face a minimal suspension this season. Cardinals teammates Kirk and Isabella, like aforementioned handcuff back Edmonds, are getting the Kingsbury-offense ADP bump. No. 2 receivers in Green Bay have historically been major contributors in fantasy football, and it appears there’s a growing belief in the fantasy community that MVS will be that guy as his ADP has risen roughly 44 picks from 137.8 to 93 in the last month. Moncrief is reportedly leading the battle for Pittsburgh’s No. 2 receiver gig, and his ADP has changed accordingly.

Fallers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12 6/15 7/14
Sammy Watkins (KC) WR26 (63.6) WR20 (49.4) WR21 (49.8) WR26 (60.7)
Jarvis Landry (CLE) WR22 (53) WR22 (54.1) WR29 (68.3) WR32 (72.9)
N’Keal Harry (NE) WR60 (165.2) WR37 (95.9) WR33 (84) WR46 (110.3)
Mecole Hardman (KC) WR101 (216.5) WR45 (111.4) WR37 (90.8) WR50 (124.4)
James Washington (PIT) WR47 (117.1) WR50 (124.2) WR46 (111.1) WR49 (117.9)
Devin Funchess (IND) WR36 (92.2) T-WR38 (96.1) WR50 (119.8) WR52 (129)
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) WR39 (95.7) WR41 (101.3) WR57 (147.2) WR63 (164.7)
Demarcus Robinson (KC) WR78 (209.1) T-WR67 (185.1) WR69 (191.6) WR81 (208.3)
Zay Jones (BUF) WR71 (198.8) WR72 (197) WR70 (194.3) WR78 (203.5)

 
Unsurprisingly with Hill in the Risers table above, Watkins, Hardman, and Robinson are all sliding later into drafts on average. Moncrief’s appearance in the Risers table coincides with a slight dip for Washington. Despite multiple accounts of Harry acquitting himself favorably in OTA sessions, he falls from WR33 to WR46 with his ADP going from pick 84 to 110.3. I didn’t mention Josh Gordon when discussing the risers above, but it seems probable the respective ADP movement of Harry and Gordon is an indication of optimism from the drafting community in regards to Gordon returning from an indefinite suspension.

Tight End

Risers

Player 4/20 ADP 5/12 6/15 7/14
Hunter Henry (LAC) TE7 (62.9) TE7 (65.1) TE6 (61.9) TE5 (58.4)
Mark Andrews (BAL) TE21 (154) TE22 (162.4) TE20 (152.5) TE12 (126.1)
Jimmy Graham (GB) TE17 (138.4) TE18 (145.9) TE21 (155.7) TE17 (148)
Darren Waller (OAK) TE40 (216.4) TE38 (215.6) T-TE26 (198.9) TE26 (191.4)

 
Fallers

Player 4/20 (ADP) 5/12 6/15 7/14
Evan Engram (NYG) TE5 (55.2) TE4 (55.8) TE5 (59.1) TE6 (63.5)
Chris Herndon (NYJ) TE12 (105.5) TE12 (105) TE12 (110.9) TE14 (127.7)
T.J. Hockenson (DET) TE16 (136.6) TE13 (111.8) TE15 (132.4) TE20 (152.4)
Delanie Walker (TEN) TE18 (144.5) TE20 (151.7) TE17 (139.2) TE18 (149)
Jordan Reed (WAS) TE19 (145.9) TE19 (148.2) TE19 (149.9) TE21 (158.2)

 
Feast your eyes on Andrews in the risers table. He’s the big mover between the two tables after flashing his chemistry with Lamar Jackson as a rookie last year. The NFL recently levied a four-game suspension against Herndon for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, hence his 17-pick ADP slide.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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