Best & Worst Fantasy Football Draft Values by Round (2025)

Ever sit down at a blackjack table, play a few hands, and then have to endure a long pause while the dealer and the pit boss change the cards?

Just as best-ball season is kicking off, we’re about to go through a changing of the cards in the NFL. Free agency starts in a couple of weeks, and the NFL Draft is less than two months away. Those two events are going to radically alter the fantasy landscape.

But admittedly, the card-change analogy is flawed. The card-changing process at a casino table is painfully boring for the players. Free agency and the NFL Draft are fun for fantasy managers.

Free agency and the draft are going to affect the fantasy value of many players. Some of those values are going to soar in the coming weeks; others will plummet. But most players won’t have their fantasy value dramatically altered by free agency and the draft.

The current FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) offers a good look at how player values are perceived right now. Some of those perceptions will change over the next two months. But most players will see very little change to where they sit in the ECR.

You’re sure to have opinions about which players are overvalued and undervalued by ECR. Let’s see if we agree on those players.

I’m going to run through the Expert Consensus Rankings (half-point PPR scoring) and break them into rounds as if we were drafting. I’ll offer my pick for the best value and worst value of the first 10 rounds.

Best & Worst Fantasy Football Values by Round

These draft positions are based on FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR)

ROUND 1

Best value: Bijan Robinson

If you prefer a hero-RB or robust-RB strategy, Bijan is a terrific cornerstone upon which to build.

Former Falcons offensive coordinator Arthur Smith used Bijan curiously in his rookie season. With workhorse usage last season under new Atlanta OC Zac Robinson, Bijan rolled up 1,887 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns — and it still seems like there’s meat left on the bone.

Bijan is wildly talented and has far less mileage on the odometer than the consensus RB1, Saquon Barkley. The Falcons should get better QB play from talented second-year man Michael Penix than they got from the dusty Kirk Cousins last season, putting a 20-TD season in the realm of possibility for Bijan.

Worst value: Derrick Henry

A lot of people seem to think the 32-year-old Henry is immortal, like Count Orlok. I prefer less bloodthirsty comps, like Eddie George.

George seems like an especially relevant com since he was a big back. George was 6-3, 235. Henry is 6-3, 247. George ran for 1,000 yards in seven of his first eight NFL seasons. He left the Titans for the Cowboys in his age-31 season and promptly hit the wall, rushing for a career-low 432 yards.

That’s not to say Henry will hit the wall this year. There have been 20 1,000-yard rushing seasons from RBs 31 or older in the Super Bowl era. I just don’t want to bet on an old running back who doesn’t catch many passes — not even one who had 1,921 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns last season.

ROUND 2

Best value: Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers should be a first-round draft pick.

TE is always a problematic position in fantasy football, and Bowers is such a resounding answer to the TE problem that I think he warrants a first-round pick in much the same way Travis Kelce did during his heyday.

Playing most of his rookie season at the tender age of 21, Bowers finished with 112 catches, 1194 yards and five touchdowns. He was third among all pass catchers in receptions, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Bowers tied for eighth among all pass catchers in receiving yards — he was tied with CeeDee Lamb.

Bowers’ QB situation can only get better, and the Raiders’ offense is going to play at a fast pace in 2025 under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.

Getting Bowers in the middle of the second round would be a bargain.

Worst value: Tyreek Hill

ECR is way too high on Hill, who will probably be a third-rounder in most 2025 fantasy drafts.

Hill is coming off a disappointing season in which he tied for WR33 in fantasy points per game. He failed to reach 1,000 yards for the first time since 2019 and scored only six touchdowns.

Age is a concern, too. Hill is facing his age-31 season. He could certainly bounce back, but the pot odds for betting on a rebound are much more appealing in the third round than in the second.

ROUND 3

Best value: Ashton Jeanty

ECR tends to lag behind on rookies. By the time we get to August, it seems unlikely that Jeanty will make it out of the second round of any fantasy draft.

A surefire first-round NFL Draft pick, Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards and scored 30 touchdowns for Boise State last season. His contact balance is otherworldly. He catches passes, too.

Worst value: Tee Higgins

This is a tough call since I don’t hate any of the values in Round 3. But 27th overall seems slightly aggressive for Higgins, regardless of whether he stays with the Bengals or ends up with a new team.

Higgins is a baller, no doubt. But if he stays in Cincinnati, he’ll continue to be the Robin to Ja’Marr Chase‘s Batman. If he goes elsewhere, he’ll probably be playing with a worse passer than Bengals QB Joe Burrow, one of the best pure passers on Planet Earth.

Soft-tissue injuries have been an issue for Higgins. He’s missed five games in each of the last two years.

ROUND 4

Best value: Chuba Hubbard

With Jonathon Brooks having torn his right ACL for the second time in 13 months, Hubbard figures to be the Panthers’ lead running back for a second straight season.

Hubbard was RB12 in fantasy points per game last season, with 250-1,195-10 rushing and 43-171-1 receiving. The Panthers’ offense took a baby step forward last season under first-year head coach Dave Canales, and things could be even better in 2025.

Worst value: Courtland Sutton

Sutton isn’t a terrible value in the late fourth, but he’s a regression candidate after hitting career highs in targets (135) and receptions (81) while posting the second 1,000-yard season of his seven-year career.

ROUND 5

Best value: Marvin Harrison Jr.

The fourth overall pick in last year’s NFL Draft, Harrison had a mildly disappointing rookie season (62-885-8).

Harrison was miscast as a primarily vertical receiver whose average depth of target last year was 13.4 yards. For sake of comparison, Ja’Marr Chase‘s average depth of target was 8.7 yards, and Justin Jefferson‘s was 10.9 yards.

If the Cardinals start getting Harrison some easy completions, he could have 100 receptions. There’s still plenty of upside here, and getting MHJ in the fifth round would be a steal.

Worst value: Baker Mayfield

Mayfield is a baller. But statistically, he may have been out over his skis last year. Mayfield threw 41 touchdown passes last season. He’d never had even 30 TD passes in any previous season. Mayfield also had 378 rushing yards. He’d never had even 200 rushing yards in any previous season.

Mayfield has also lost two ace playcallers — Dave Canales and Liam Coen — in the last two years.

Considering how deep the QB position is, taking Mayfield in the fifth round would be a reach.

ROUND 6

Best value: Jaylen Waddle

I’m more inclined to bet on a bounceback for the 26-year-old Waddle than for the 30-plus Tyreek Hill.

At Alabama, Waddle had the most yards per route run of any college receiver since 2020 — ahead of guys such as Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb. Waddle was the No. 6 overall draft pick in 2021. He had three straight 1,000-yard seasons to begin his NFL career.

Waddle only had 744 receiving yards and two TDs last year, in no small part due to the Miami offense going belly-up when QB Tua Tagovailoa missed time with a concussion. Waddle will be fine, and getting him in the sixth round would be a ridiculous value.

Worst value: Brian Robinson Jr.

Evidence is mounting that Robinson is a “just a guy” guy. He’s a competent grinder who lacks big-play potential. He’s a capable pass catcher but doesn’t really move the needle in that department.

The Commanders view Robinson as a committee back, and if Washington makes any notable RB additions in the offseason, Robinson’s usage could turn into a backup.

There’s not much upside to drafting Robinson in the sixth round.

ROUND 7

Best value: Xavier Worthy

After a sluggish start to his rookie year, Worthy was dynamite down the stretch, averaging 6.7 catches and 79.5 yards over Kansas City’s last six games (playoffs included), with six touchdowns over that stretch.

Maybe Rashee Rice‘s return from injury will keep Worthy’s ADP affordable. It would be grand larceny to get him in the seventh round.

Worst value: (tie) D’Andre Swift and Rico Dowdle

Dowdle is an unrestricted free agent, and there’s little chance he opens the 2025 season as someone’s lead back despite his solid 2024 campaign.

Swift was Chicago’s lead back in 2024 but will probably face competition. New Bears head coach Ben Johnson was Swift’s offensive coordinator in Detroit for one season. The Lions kicked Swift to the curb after that season.

ROUND 8

Best value: Khalil Shakir

Shakir might not have star potential, but he’s a capable and ruthlessly efficient pass catcher paired with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Josh Allen. Shakir had 76-821-4 last season despite missing two games. He’s averaged 9.7 yards per target over his three-year career.

Worst value: Evan Engram

This was a tough one. All of these values seem reasonable. It’s strange to see both of the Jacksonville RBs in this round, but Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne become more appealing with Liam Coen as their new playcaller.

Engram is the default choice. He could certainly return eighth-round value (or better) if he continues to be Trevor Lawrence‘s short-area security blanket. But there’s a chance Engram could be a cap casualty, and the market could be soft for an oft-injured 30-year-old tight end.

ROUND 9

Best value: Drake Maye

The rankers are sleeping on Maye.

From Week 6, when Maye made his first start, through Week 17, Maye averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game, and he scored at least 17.7 fantasy points in seven of those 11 games. He did it despite playing with an abysmal offensive line and a weak group of pass catchers.

The Patriots have more money to spend under the salary cap than any other team, and they have ample draft capital. They have the means to dramatically upgrade Maye’s dinner-theater supporting cast.

And Maye has immense rushing upside. He’s an aggressive runner who averaged 37 rushing yards per game (not counting his partial start in Week 18).

If you don’t want to spend up at quarterback, Maye is a great draft target.

Worst value: Tyjae Spears

I don’t want to diss Spears, who’s an exciting player. But Tony Pollard is the clear No. 1 running back in Tennessee, and the Titans are unlikely to have a high-scoring offense in 2025 since they’re still in a transitional period at quarterback.

ROUND 10

Best value: C.J. Stroud

After throwing for 4,108 yards as a rookie, Stroud endured a sophomore slump that saw him regress in pretty much every statistical category.

But Stroud’s problems were largely attributable to an offensive line that gave up 54 sacks and allowed a league-high 26.9% pressure rate. Expect the Texans to patch up their offense line in the offseason.

Worst: Javonte Williams

Broncos head coach Sean Payton says his offense needs a “joker” — a playmaker at either running back or tight end who can make a difference as a pass catcher.

Williams was Denver’s No. 1 running back over the first half of the 2024 season but wasn’t especially effective. After getting double-digit carries in six of the Broncos’ first nine games, Williams didn’t get 10 or more carries in any game from Week 10 on.

Articles NFL Rankings Ja’Marr Chase Saquon Barkley Bijan Robinson Justin Jefferson Jahmyr Gibbs CeeDee Lamb Puka Nacua Nico Collins Amon-Ra St. Brown Derrick Henry Brian Thomas Jr. Malik Nabers Michael Penix Kirk Cousins De’Von Achane Josh Jacobs Jonathan Taylor A.J. Brown Brock Bowers Bucky Irving Trey McBride Drake London Tyreek Hill Kyren Williams Josh Allen Christian McCaffrey Travis Kelce Breece Hall Lamar Jackson Tee Higgins Jaxon Smith-Njigba Ladd McConkey Jayden Daniels Mike Evans Chase Brown Terry McLaurin James Cook Ashton Jeanty Garrett Wilson Joe Burrow Joe Mixon Jalen Hurts Davante Adams George Kittle Chuba Hubbard D.J. Moore Rashee Rice Kenneth Walker Zay Flowers Courtland Sutton Alvin Kamara Jonathon Brooks George Pickens D.K. Metcalf Marvin Harrison Jr. Sam LaPorta James Conner David Montgomery Jordan Addison Chris Olave Tyrone Tracy Isiah Pacheco Jameson Williams Baker Mayfield Patrick Mahomes Tony Pollard DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle Aaron Jones T.J. Hockenson Jerry Jeudy Brian Robinson Jr. J.K. Dobbins Jared Goff Chris Godwin Najee Harris Tua Tagovailoa Xavier Worthy Brandon Aiyuk D’Andre Swift Rico Dowdle Mark Andrews Kyler Murray Calvin Ridley Rhamondre Stevenson Jonnu Smith Jordan Love Deebo Samuel Justin Herbert Ben Johnson Tank Bigsby David Njoku Rome Odunze Travis Etienne Brock Purdy Jaylen Warren Khalil Shakir Bo Nix Jakobi Meyers Jayden Reed Evan Engram Trevor Lawrence Tyjae Spears Rachaad White Tucker Kraft Cooper Kupp Jalen McMillan Anthony Richardson Stefon Diggs Zach Charbonnet Nick Chubb Caleb Williams Josh Downs Drake Maye Dalton Kincaid Keenan Allen C.J. Stroud Michael Pittman Jr. Dallas Goedert Amari Cooper Dak Prescott Darnell Mooney Javonte Williams Jerome Ford Austin Ekeler

About Author

Pat Fitzmaurice

@Fitz_FF

Pat Fitzmaurice is the managing editor and a fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.